Delft, 13 October 2011 Marc van Dijk Deltares Flood Forecasting Systems @ Deltares FEWS-IWP

Delft, 13 October 2011

Marc van DijkDeltares

Flood Forecasting Systems @ DeltaresFEWS-IWP

Outline

• Operational Flood Forecasting at Deltares

• Delft-FEWS: Short overview of the system

• Use of Delft FEWS in the Netherlands

• FEWS IPW (Kanalen)

?

Properties at Risk…?!

Response …

Forecasting, Warning & Response

Measure-ments

Warning Response

Forecasting

SimulationFrom data

to information…

Key Questions…

• More lead time?• More accurate?• Risk of flooding due to levee

failure?

DELTARES

DELFT FEWS – flow forecasting shell

Philosophy

• Framework for organisation for the flood forecasting process

• Integration of data from several sources - present single source to forecaster

• Provides general functional utilities

• Open interface to models used for forecasting

• Dissemination of results

• Delft FEWS is an open system – joint development approach

Providing the forecaster an interface to data…

Simple graphical user interface

Self explanatory

Key features

• GIS Based

• Overview of data & status

FEWS Scotland – flood status in several catchments, January 2008

FEWS Donau (Austria) – Graphs at key stations

Integration of data

Interfaces to data sources• Supports standards in data exchange formats: GRIB, NetCDF, etc.• Data exchange with HIMS (e.g. WISKI, HYMOS)• Plugin-technology to extend integration of data formats• Source code of plugin architecture available on Delft-FEWS Wiki• Emerging standards: WaterML – OpenGIS standard for exchange

of hydrological data (USGS, NWS, CUAHSI), OpenDAP, ..

Integrating forecast models

Delft FEWS independent of model - Key to philosophy of Delft FEWS

• Existing models available – used operationally – maintain investment (i.e. SOBEK, HEC)

• No model available – choose models from wide range – consider suitability & available knowledge base

• New models from academia – fast track science to operations

> 50 models of different nature

Using and displaying uncertainty information

New techniques are used to include uncertainty in forecasts•Quantile Regression (Historic Forecast Performance Tool)

Real Time Control

Supporting decision-making in forecasting systems• RTC Tools is an open source tool for real-time control on hydraulic

structure such as reservoirs, flood detention basins, weirs etc.• Integration in Delft-FEWS; focus on how decision-making can be

supported in forecasting.

Examples of Delft-FEWS systems for the Dutch Waterdienst

FEWS Systems at Waterdienst

Systems for Floods, Droughts and Daily Water Management

• FEWS-Rivers or Rhine and Meuse floods• FEWS-Water management for droughts and water distribution• FEWS-Lakes for floods on IJssellake due to wind effects • FEWS-North Sea for floods on North Sea area• FEWS-IWP for daily management of canals and lakes• FEWS-Algue for water quality on North Sea

FEWS-IWP

Instrument for regulated systems (canals, lakes)

• Focus on daily management of canals and lakes• Water levels, real time control and spills• Short lead time (< 1 day)• Schematic displays with status information

FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen

Twenthekanalen

• Constructed from 1930-1938

• Northern branch in 1953

• Total 65 km long

• Ships for industry supplies


• Difference in water levels are large: 25, 16 and 10 meters

• Three big locks for shipping

• Levels are fluctuating +/-20 cm around fixed level


• On average 2440 large ships pass the lock at Hengelo in one year.

• The amount of water that is lost with one locking cycle is about 16.000 m3.

• To prevent the canal to run dry in summer diesel pumps can pump the water from downstream to upstream. Capacity of the pumps are 18.000 m3/hour.


• Lock-keepers only have local information, with focus on:

• Number of ships passing the lock

• Water levels upstream of the lock


• On 22 August 2003 there was a big fire at the Vredestein factory

• Fire fighting water was entering the canal

• Water contained a lot of chemicals


• Information was needed on the status of the Twentekanalen

• Where was the water flowing to?

• Can the upper lock of the canal be closed to keep the pollution isolated?

• How long can we keep the polluted water in this separated zone?

• Shipping was not possible anymore; for how long?

• A system was needed that:

• Collects data from different sources

• Presentation of data

• Process the data

• Can be used to run scenarios (models)

• Focus on water quantity and quality


In 2009 we started implementing Delft-FEWS in different steps:

• Collect and present data from main Telemetry systems (levels, pumps, gates)

• Check all data feeds, important role for the lock keepers

• Collect validation rules, warning levels and flow relations

• Standard FEWS Displays were too complex to understand

• Schematic status displays were developped


• Development of water balance functions for three canal sections

• Inflow and outflow data is needed from waterboards

• Rainfall / evaporation data from Dutch Met Office


• Water balances are very useful, but complex for canals

• Difficult to collect all data sources that flow into the canal, small streams have no measurements

• Difficult to collect all data sources that extract water from the canal

• Seepage is important and many times unknown

• Balance errors of 20%-40% is not unusual

• Good water balance is needed before you start modeling


• A fews days with extreme rain in August 2010More rain expected

Rain came later thanexpected


• Simulation models and an RTC module will be added to give advice to the lock-keepers

• They will have the opportunity to look 24 hours ahead in time

• SOBEK simulation model has only a local controller

• Problem with canals is that ship movements are unknown, but important


• Introduction of Real Time Control is next step

• Give Advice the the lock keepers on how to manage their lock, pumps and gates

• Use forecasted flows and water levels

• Use minimum and maximum accepted water levels

• Use Other criteria such as: minimize pump costs, etc.

• RTC Tools is used as toolbox in FEWS (and SOBEK)


Spill model is used in Twentekanalen to track a spill:• Flow in canal is main input to the model


• Work on Twentekanalen needs to be completed in 2012• Other systems are also being developed

Documents

Delft, 13 October 2011 Marc van Dijk Deltares Flood Forecasting Systems @ Deltares FEWS-IWP