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8/8/2019 Deloitte CFO Survey - Sweden, Fall 2010. Recovery is materializing
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The Deloitte CFO SurveyRecovery is materializing
Fall 2010 results
28 September 2010
8/8/2019 Deloitte CFO Survey - Sweden, Fall 2010. Recovery is materializing
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Introduction 3
KeypointsfromtheFall2010Survey 3
CurrentstatusoftheSwedisheconomy 4
Prospects
Highexpectationsoncashgeneration 6
Marketviews
SignificantPrivateEquityM&Auptake 7
Fundingpreferences
Bankfinancingremainsfirstchoice 8-10
AvailabilityofcreditImprovedaccessbutinterestrateincreasesexpected 11
TheDeloitteCFOsurvey
Aninternationaloutlook 13
HighriskconcernsofSwedishCFOs 13
InsighttotheCFOcommunity 14
Anoteonmethodology 14
Contacts 15
Content
8/8/2019 Deloitte CFO Survey - Sweden, Fall 2010. Recovery is materializing
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Introduction
ItisourpleasuretopresenttheDeloitteFall2010CFO
SurveyforSweden,asemi-annualreportprovidinga
pictureoftheCFO’sagendainSwedishcompanies.
Theoverallsentimentinthecurrentsurveyisthat
recoveryfromthefinancialcrisisandcyclicaldownturnismaterializinginSweden,althoughtheCFOoutlook
variesinotherpartsoftheworld:intheUKoptimism
hasdecreased,whilepositivesentimentisontherisein
NorthAmerica.
The Deloitte CFO Survey – Fall 2010Recovery is materializing
•Oursurveyshowsthattheeconomicrecovery
ismaterializingin2010andthemajorityofCFOsfeelthatthefinancialprospectsfortheir
companieshaveimproved,comparedtothe
Spring2010survey.
• 65%ofCFOsexpectincreasingoperatingcash
flowsintheirbusinessesoverthenexttwelve
months.Thesepositivecashflowforecastsare
likelyrelatedbothtothegeneraleconomic
recoveryaswellastotheeffectsofimplemented
restructuringactivities.
• Bankborrowingscontinuetoberatedasthe
mostattractivesourceoffundingbyresponding
CFOs,whichislikelytoreflectlowshort-term
marketinterestratesandincreasedavailabilityof
creditin2010.
• ThemajorityofCFOsconsiderSwedish
companiesingeneraltobeappropriately
leveragedeventhoughshort-termmarketinterest
ratesareexpectedtoincreasefromtheendof
2010.
•Difficultiesinfindingbankfundingwereseen
throughoutmostof2009.Theavailabilityof
bankfundingcontinuestoimprove,compared
tothesurveyssixandtwelvemonthsago.Thisdevelopmentisinlinewithothersurveyresults
acrossEurope.
• TheM&Adealflowhaspickedupsignificantly
and77%oftherespondingCFOsareexpectingenhancedM&Aactivitywithinthecomingtwelve
months.Theincreasedactivitysincethecredit
crunchappearstobemainlyrelatedtoa“back
log”ofdeals,althoughthissurveyalsoindicates
thattheimprovedavailabilityofcreditisakey
driver.
• Incontradictiontotheprevioussurvey,theCFOs
appeartohavechangedtheirviewonnewshare
issueswith31%ofrespondentsconsideringnow
nottobeagoodtimetoperformnewshare
issues.Only4%ofCFOsstateitislikelythattheir
companieswillperformanewshareissuewithinthenexttwelvemonths.Thiscouldbetheresult
ofanumberofrelativelyunsuccessfulIPOsonthe
Swedishmarketduring2010,whichcontributes
touncertainty,butalsothatbankfundingisless
cumbersomeandremainsfairlycheap.
• SurveysconductedinEuropeduringQ22010
indicateddecreasedoptimismfollowedby
financialcrisesinseveralEuro-countries.The
NorthAmericanQ22010surveyindicated
generaloptimismandthatadaptingcompanies’
growthstrategieswasdemandingagreatdealof
attentionfromCFOs.EventhoughtheSwedishsurveywasconductedlater,theconfidenceof
CFOsinSwedenseemshighandthesurvey
suggeststhereislittleconcernfora“doubledip”.
Key points from the Fall 2010 Survey
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TheSwedisheconomycontinuesitsrecoveryafter
thefinancialcrisisbeginningin2008.According
toRiksbanken’s(theSwedishCentralBank)revised
figures,SwedishquarterlyGDPhasbeengrowing
sincethesecondquarterof2009.Enhancedgrowth
hascontinuedthroughoutthefirsthalfof2010mainly
drivenbyexpansionaryeconomicpolicyandincreased
demandforSwedishexportgoods.Thepositive
developmentwasindicatedbytheSwedishEMI(Export
Manager’sIndex),reportedintheSpring2010Survey.
However,sinceinternationaldemandpartlyrelatesto
therebuildingofstock,Swedishexportsareexpected
todroptolowerlevelsduringthelattermonthsof
2010,accordingtoKonjunkturinstitutet(theNational
InstituteofEconomicResearch).WhiletheNational
InstituteofEconomicResearchhasraisedSwedishGDP
forecastsforfullyear2010,theforecastfor2012has
beenloweredsinceourlatestSurvey.AsofSeptember
2010,theNationalInstituteofEconomicResearchpredictsGDPinSwedentodevelopasfollows:4.3%in
2010,3.4%in2011and3.0%in20121.
Therecoveryhasgonehandinhandwithimproved
confidenceregardingtheSwedisheconomyduring
thefirsteightmonthsof2010.TheNationalInstitute
ofEconomicResearchreportsthatapproximately50%
ofSwedishhouseholdsconsiderthecurrenteconomic
situationtobebetterthanayearago.Householdsare
alsooptimisticaboutthedevelopmentoftheSwedish
economyoverthenexttwelvemonths.Furthermore,
confidenceinthebusinesssectorasawholeremains
atahigherlevelthanthehistoricalaverage.However,confidencefellinAugust,inparticularaffecting
theretailtradeinwhichconfidencewasbelowthe
historicalaverageasofAugust.
Current status of the Swedish economy
1ThepredictionsofSwedish
GDPdevelopmentmade
bytheNationalInstituteof
EconomicResearchinQ4
2009aswereportedinour
Spring2010surveywereas
follows:2.7%in2010,3.3%
in2011and3.8%in2012.
2Thereporateistheratethat
banksreceiveorpaywhen
depositingorborrowingfunds
attheSwedishCentralBank
foraperiodofsevendays.
Asaresultofoptimisminthebusinesssectorand
increasedexportsduringrecentmonths,thelabour
markethasalsoslightlyimprovedduringthefirst
halfof2010,incontrasttothegeneralconsensussix
monthsago.Nevertheless,unemployment–standing
atapproximately8.6%inMay–isexpectedtodecrease
onlygraduallyandreachabout7.5%attheendof
2012,accordingtheSwedishCentralBank.
Expansionaryeconomicpolicyhasbeen,andis
expectedtobe,animportantdrivingforceofthe
Swedisheconomyintheremainingmonthsof2010
andin2011.Ourexpectationsforaraisedreporate
intheSpring2010Surveyweremet,withtherepo
rate2havingbeenraisedtwiceto0.75%.TheSwedish
CentralBankhasalsoslightlyraiseditsexpectationsfor
thereporate,whichispredictedtobearound2.6%in
thebeginningof2012.
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The recovery has gonehand in hand withimproved confidenceregarding the Swedish
economy during the firsteight months of 2010.
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ProspectsHigh expectations on cash generation
59%ofrespondingCFOsaremoreoptimisticabouttheirspecificfinancialprospectsthanthreemonths
ago.Thetrendissimilarinallindustriesandstretches
fromsmall(saleslessthanSEK500m)tolargesize
(salesmorethanSEK1,500m)organizations.The
paceofrecoveryispickingupcomparedtothe
Spring2010survey.Higherthanaverageoptimism
ingeneralisalsomeasuredinotherSwedishsurveys
suchasKonjukturbarometerninAugust(“theSwedish
EconomicTendencySurvey”).
Chart 1.
Financial prospects – Company specific
Compared to three months ago how do you feel
about the financial prospects for your company?
Chart 2.
Cash flow prospects – Company specific
How do you expect operating cash flow in your
company to change over the next 12 months?
Therearesignificantlyhigherexpectationsofincreasedcashflowoverthenexttwelvemonths
amongrespondingCFOs.Privateconsumption-
relatedbusinessessuchasmanufacturing,retailand
transportationhaveincreasedmorethanaverage.With
increasingbusinessvolumes,manywouldexpecta
buildupofworkingcapitalhavinganegativeimpact
onoperatingcashflow.However,workingcapital
reductionprogramsimplementedduringthecredit
crunchappeartohavehadamitigatingimpact.
Oursurveyshowsthattheeconomicrecoveryismaterializingin2010.AmajorityofCFOsfeelthatthefinancial
prospectsfortheircompanieshaveimprovedcomparedtotheSpring2010survey,whichisinlinewithstrong
macro-economicdevelopmentinSweden.Thetrendissimilarinallindustriesandstretchesfromsmalltolargesize
organizations.Only8%ofrespondentsfeellessoptimisticcomparedtothreemonthsago.
65%ofCFOsexpectincreasingoperatingcashflowsintheirbusinessesoverthenexttwelvemonths,whileonly
9%expectadecrease.Business-to-consumerrelatedentitiesaremostoptimisticaboutthefuture.Thepositivecashflowforecastsarelikelytobeacombinationofincreaseddemandandtheeffectsofimplemented/ongoing
restructuringeffortsandcashmanagementprogramsinbusinessesacrossmanyindustrysectors.
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
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Market viewsSignificant Private Equity M&A uptake
Chart 3.
M&A activity – Sweden in general
Over the next 12 months how do you expect
levels of corporate acquisitions and divestments
in Sweden to change?
39%ofCFOsrateSwedishcompaniesasundervalued.CurrentCFOsentimentimpliesthatSwedishcompaniesare
consideredtobedevelopingandperformingwell,whilemarketvaluationshavedevelopedmorecautiously.Asa
benchmark,theOMXNordicExchangeIndexOMXStockholm30increasedby12.6%sofarin2010.
TheM&Adealflowhaspickedupsignificantlyand77%oftherespondingCFOsareexpectingfurtherincreasesin
M&Aactivitywithinthecomingtwelvemonths.During2010wehaveseenasignificantrecoveryindealflowsand
M&Aactivity,primarilywithinPrivateEquityhoweveralsoamongstrategicplayers,whichisinlinewiththeCFOpredictionsintheprevioussurveys.Theincreasedactivityafterthecreditcrunchismostlikelyrelatedtoa“back
log”ofdeals,howeverthissurveyalsoindicatesthatimprovedavailabilityofcreditisakeydriver.
Chart 4.
Valuation – Sweden in general
How do you currently rate the valuation of
Swedish companies?
TheM&Adealflowhaspickedupsignificantlyand77%oftherespondingCFOsareexpectingfurtherincreases
inM&Aactivity.Thestrongdevelopmentisaresponse
tothelowlevelsofactivityduringthesecondhalfof
2008andduring2009.Furthermore,CFOsexpectthat
PrivateEquityactivitywillincreasesignificantlyoverthe
comingtwelvemonths,inlinewithwhatwehaveseen
ontheSwedishmarketsinceSpring2010.
UnchangedfromtheSpring2010survey,only14%ofCFOsrateSwedishcompaniesasovervalued.An
increasedshareofrespondents,comparedtothe
surveyssixandtwelvemonthsago,rateSwedish
companiesasundervalued.Furthermore,Swedish
companiesareingeneralshowingperformance
improvementsandareabletodefendthesignificant
upturninvalueoverthelasttwelvemonths.
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
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8/8/2019 Deloitte CFO Survey - Sweden, Fall 2010. Recovery is materializing
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Chart 7.
New share issue – Sweden in general
Is now a good time for Swedish companies to
perform a new share issue?
Chart 8.
Leverage – Sweden in general
Generally speaking do you think Swedish
companies’ balance sheets are over-,
appropriately or underleveraged?
The majority of CFOs consider Swedishcompanies in general to be appropriately
leveraged
Incontradictiontothelastsurveyalmostonethird
oftheCFOsnowbelieveitisnotagoodtimefor
companiestoperformnewshareissues.Thiscould
relatetoafewlesssuccessfulIPOsontheSwedish
marketduring2010,whichresultsinuncertainty.
Furthermore,almost47%oftherespondentssaying
“Noopinion”seemstoindicatethatCFOconfidenceon
thistopicremainslow.
Only4%ofrespondentsarelikelytoperformanew
shareissuewithinthenexttwelvemonthsandboth
largeandsmall-sizedcompaniesarerepresented.
However,some45%oftherespondingCFOsthat
representlargecompaniesbelievethatnowisagood
timetoperformanewshareissue.
Theshareofrespondentsdeemingcompaniestobe
appropriatelyleveragedremainsatasimilarlevelto
theprevioussurveys.61%ofrespondentsbelieve
thatSwedishcompaniesareappropriatelyleveraged
comparedto18%whorespondedeitherover-or
under-leveraged.Theresponseisconsistentwiththe
company-specificquestion,whereabouthalfofthe
respondentsintendtomakenochangeinleverageover
thecomingtwelvemonthperiod.
ItisnotablethatasignificantincreaseofCFOs(from
8%to14%)statethatthebalancesheetsofSwedish
companiesareunderleveraged.ThisisdrivenbyCFOs
inlargesizecompanies,where25-30%ofrespondents
areoftheopinionthatSwedishcompaniesare
underleveraged.
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
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Chart 10.
Balance sheet risk – Company specific
How has the level of financial risk on your
balance sheet changed over the past 12 months?
Chart 9.
Cash return to shareholder ratios – Sweden in general
Do you think current cash return to shareholder
ratios (including dividends and share buybacks),
compared to a 10 year average, are high, normal
or low?
Morethanonethirdoftherespondentsthinkthat
shareholders’cashreturnoninvestmentratioislowbut
thisgrouphasdecreasedcomparedtotwelvemonths
ago.Theresponsecouldbeseeninlightofpositive
indicationsinthemacro-economicenvironmentand
increaseddividendsinmanyofthelargerquoted
companies.Theresponsesindicatethatcurrent
sentimentsamongCFOsleantowardcontinuing
increasesincompanydividends.
TheoveralltrendsincetheFall2009surveyisthat
thefinancialriskonthebalancesheetofSwedish
companies(withafocusonsmalltomid-size
companies)hasdecreased.Only15%oftheCFOsat
largesizecompaniesconsidertheirbalancesheetriskto
haveincreasedoverthepasttwelvemonths,versusthe
totalpopulationatanaverageof20%.68%ofCFOs
inthemanufacturingsectorconsidertheirbalance
sheetfinancialrisktohavedecreasedorbeunchanged
overthepasttwelvemonths,confirmingthetrendof
increaseddemandinseveralSwedishcoreindustry
sectors.
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
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Availability of creditImproved access but interest rateincreases expected
Chart 11.
Availability of bank funding – Sweden in general
How would you rate the overall availability of
bank funding for companies?
Chart 12.
Credit renegotiations – Company specific
Is your company likely to renegotiate loan
arrangements/arrange for new credit facilities
over the next 12 months?
Difficultiesinobtainingbankfundingwereseenthroughoutmostof2009.However,theavailabilityofbank
fundingcontinuestoimprovefromthesurveyssixandtwelvemonthsago,accordingtorespondingCFOs.25%
statethatbankfinancingis“hardtoget”comparedwith29%intheSpring2010surveyand43%intheFall2009
survey.ThisdevelopmentisinlinewithsurveyresultsacrossEurope.Again,theresultsconfirmthatsmalltomid-
sizecompaniesfacegreaterobstaclesinobtainingfundingatacceptabletermscomparedtolargecorporations
withsolidbankrelationshipsandaccesstothecorporatebondmarkets.
InterestratesarestillconsideredtobeveryfavorablebyasignificantmajorityofCFOs.TheSwedishCentralBank’s
forecastindicatethattherepointerestrateislikelytoincreasefromthecurrentlevelof0.75%toanaverageof
1.9%in2011andtoanaverageof3.0%in2012.44%oftherespondingCFOsbelievetheircompaniesarelikelyto
renegotiateloanarrangements/arrangefornewcreditfacilitiesoverthenexttwelvemonths,comparedto36%of
CFOsinearly2010.
Withtheincreasingavailabilityofbankfunding,
44%oftherespondentsarelikelytonegotiatecredit
agreementsoverthenexttwelvemonths.Asmarket
interestratesareconsideredlowandarerising
slowly,onewouldexpecthighpressureonfinancial
institutions’marginsandthepossibilitytolockin
financingatfavorableterms.
Bankfundingismorereadilyavailablecomparedto
thesurveyssixandtwelvemonthsago.Thetrend
isanaturaldevelopmentafterthecreditcrunch
experiencedinlate2008andearly2009.Thevast
majorityofCFOsstillcharacterizetheshorttermmarket
interestratesinSwedenaslowandattractive(seechart
5).Thereporateiscurrently0.75%,havingincreased
from0.25%duringthelastsixmonths.However,every
fourthrespondentstillrespondsthatbankfinancingis
“hardtoget”.
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
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To be successful,finance must developthe capabilities thatwill allow it to fulfill
its responsibilities tothe organization, meetstakeholder expectations
and to service its keybusiness partners.
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The Deloitte CFO surveyAn international outlook
BelowwehavecompiledkeypointsfromcurrentCFOsurveysintheUK/Euro-zone
andinNorthAmerica(performedinQ22010):
UK / Euro-zone
•FinancialoptimismdecreasedamongCFOsandexpectationsofa“doubledip”
increased.WenotethatthesesurveyswereperformedwhenfinancialcrisessituationsinseveralEurocountriesremainedintheheadlines.
•CreditconditionsareimprovingandCFOsentimentaboutcreditavailabilityisatthe
highestlevelsincethesurveywasfirstconductedinQ32007.
•CFOsseebondissuanceasamoreattractivewaytofinancetheirbusinessthan
bankborrowingorequity.
•Theperceivedattractivenessofraisingequityshowsasharpdecline.
•Expansionarypoliciestoraiserevenueandcapitalizeongrowthhavebecomeareas
ofincreasingpriorityforCFOsoverthelastyear,ascashflowandliquidityhave
becomelessofafocus.
North America
•CFOoptimismismostlyontherisedespiteachallengingbusinessenvironmentand
increasinggovernmentaction.
•Allsurveyedindustriesprojectrevenueandearningsgrowth(9%and17%year
overyearonaverage,respectively)whilekeepingbothcostsandemploymentin
check.
•Socialandotherpolicyconcernsarenotableacrossmostindustries–notjust
financialservices,healthcareandenergy.
•CFOworkloadstressesandfinanceorganizationchallengesareprimarilyrelatedto
growthandstrategicambiguity.
•TurmoilhaspulledCFOsdeeperintotheiroperatorandstewardroles,andmost
lookforwardtoexpandingtheirworkascatalystsandstrategists.
High risk concerns of Swedish CFOs
TheSwedishelectioninSeptember2010iscreatingsomeuncertaintyamong
CFOs.Onequestioninthesurveyaskedforwhatis“theonehigh-impactrisk
thatCFOsworrymostabout”.Theresponsestothisquestionincludedtherisk
forpoliticaldecisionsbutmostresponsesfallintothecategoriesinterestrates,
foreignexchangeratesanddevelopmentoftheworldeconomy(Europe/USA /Asia).GiventhatSwedenis,bynature,generallyexposedtointernational
developmentduetoitssmallcurrencyandsignificantexports,itisnotablethat
mostCFOsworryaboutthingsthatarebeyondtheircontrol.
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Insight to the CFO community
Financeisthelifebloodofanorganizationand
stakeholdershavehighexpectationsofthefinance
function’sperformance.Aneffectivefinancefunction,
whichincludesallaspectsoffinance,tax,treasury
and,typically,riskmanagement,makesapositive
contributiontotheachievementoftheorganization’s
strategicobjectivesandtoitsvaluecreationgoals.To
besuccessful,financemustdevelopthecapabilities
thatwillallowittofulfillitsresponsibilitiestothe
organization,meetstakeholderexpectationsandto
serviceitskeybusinesspartners.Thechallengeforthe
CFOistocreateafinancefunctionthathasboththe
capabilitiesandtheflexibilitynecessarytomeetthe
desiredlevelsofperformanceinthesekeyareas.
AtDeloitte,weprovidethebestadvicetoCFOsinboth
theprivateandpublicsectorsonthecomplexfinancial
andbusinesschallengestheyface.Webringtogether
anunrivalledsetofservicesfromacrossthefirmto
supportfinanceleaderstotakethesedecisionsandto
supportanyresultingchangeortransformationintheir
financecapability.Thebreadthofservices,combined
withourabilitytoprovideindependentadviceandthe
capabilitytosupportbothstrategyanddeliverysetsus
apartinthemarket.
A note on methodology
ForthepurposeoftheCFOsurveyaround3,000
CFOsinSwedenwereapproached.TheCFOs
whorespondedrepresentcompaniesacrossall
industries,withanannualturnoverofSEK100
millionormore.Thesurveywascarriedoutasa
web-basedquestionnaireduringAugust2010.Intotal208CFOsrespondedtothesurvey,
representingaresponserateof7%.Given
thecharacteristicsofthetargetgroupthisis
consideredareasonableresponserate.
Inordertofurtherpositionourselvesasapre-eminent
advisortotheCFOcommunity,wealsoconductthe
DeloitteCFOsurvey–asurveyofCFOsandgroup
financedirectorsofmajorcompanies.Itcaptures
shiftsinCFOs’opinionsonvaluations,risksand
financing.Ithasbecomeabenchmarkforgauging
financialattitudesofmajorcorporateusersofcapital
incountriesaroundtheworld.Atpresent,14Deloitte
memberfirmsareconductingCFOsurveysoneithera
quarterlyorsemi-annualbasis.
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Michael Bernhardtz
Partner,EnterpriseRiskServices
+46752463066
Lars FranckPartner,Tax
+46752462126
Peter Gustafsson
Partner,Audit
+46752464325
Andreas Marcetic
Partner,FinancialAdvisory
+46752462341
Anna Pontén
Partner,Consulting
+46752462389
Contacts
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