Deloitte MHRA Webinar… · 2020. 7. 16. · 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Q3 2020 Q4 2020 H1 2021 H2 2021 H1 2022 H2 2022 H1 2023 H2 2023 65% of hoteliers believe that pre-COVID-19 levels

Deloitte MHRA WebinarTourism in focusJuly 2020, Private and confidential

© 2020. For information, contact Deloitte Malta. 2

Previous Crisis Recovery Trends

Tourism in focus© 2020. For information, contact Deloitte Malta. 3

Tourism trends took 5 months to recover post-Sars

International Tourism | Post-crises Recovery Periods

Source: UNWTO

2%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

% C

ha

ng

e

Number of Months before/after event

Sars

SARS

SARSMonth 5:

First month of growth


Google Trends Consumption TrendsPursuing Accelerated Recovery

Incentive Tool


Tourism trends took 6 months to recover post-September 11th crisis


Source: UNWTO

4%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

% C

ha

ng

e


September 11th Terrorist Attack

Sept 11th attacks

Sept 11thMonth 6:

First month of growth(intermittent)



Incentive Tool


Tourism trends took 10 months to recover post-2010 Global Economic Crisis


Source: UNWTO

(12%)

4%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

% C

ha

ng

e


Global Economic Crisis

Global Economic Crisis

Global econ. crisisMonth 10:

First month of growth



Incentive Tool


-

1%

-

4%

3%

16%

8%

19%

10%

18%

15%

7%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

Jun-20

Jul-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

H1 2022

H2 2022

2023 and later

40% of respondents believe that the Covid-19 disruptive period will persist into 2022 and 2023

Hospitality Trends | Hospitality Recovery Period

Source: Deloitte Global COVID-19 hospitality sentiment survey

93% Beyond 2020 40% Beyond 2021 7% Beyond 2022



Incentive Tool


-

-

-

6%

12%

17%

21%

28%

17%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Q3 2020

Q4 2020

H1 2021

H2 2021

H1 2022

H2 2022

H1 2023

H2 2023

2024 and later

65% of hoteliers believe that pre-COVID-19 levels of business will be achieved after 2021

Hospitality Trends | Hotel Pace of Recovery




Incentive Tool


Cash management has become the top priority for hoteliers

Hotel Sector| Key Priorities


79%

73%

45%

42%

35%

27%

24%

4%

3%

3%

85%

53%

44%

54%

11%

44%

27%

12%

7%

2%

Cashflow/cash management

Worforce health and safety

Financing/lender considerations

Stakeholder relationships

Remote working capabilities

Propping up/supporting/streamlining operations

Transactions/expansion

Other

Supply chain

Infrastructure gaps, digital upskilling, bandwidth and cybersecurity limitations

23rd March Jul-03



Incentive Tool


Automation of contactless processes and increased training are considered to be the most effective measures to safeguard health and safety of staff

Hotel Sector| Workforce Health and Safety


Increased training and education on health and safety

practices6% - 11% 29% 55%

Automation to contactless processes (e.g. Mobile to check

in/out, keyless entry, gourmet food dispensers etc.)3% 6% 17% 20% 55%

Reconfiguring public areas and furniture, to facilitate social

distancing measures2% 5% 14% 29% 51%

Plexiglass barriers to separate guests and staff (e.g. at hotel

reception)8% 10% 11% 26% 44%

PPE to all personal care kits to all entire workforce 7% 11% 20% 19% 42%

Limited entry to confined spaces (e.g. lifts limited to 4 persons) 5% 4% 21% 32% 39%

Use of electrostatic sprayers, which uniformly mist disinfectant

across wide areas15% 14% 23% 28% 20%

Thermal screening of entire workforce and incoming guests 20% 23% 21% 17% 19%

Use of ultraviolet light to sanitize surfaces and objects 19% 22% 29% 18% 12%

Other 51% 10% 30% 5% 5%

Low Impact

1

High Impact

52 3 4



Incentive Tool


Distressed activity is expected to spike in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021

Hotel Sector | Distressed Activity


12%

46%

32%

9%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Q3 2020 (July, August, September)

Q4 2020 (October, November, December)

Q1 2021 (January, February, March)

Q2 2021 onwards

Distressed Activity



Incentive Tool


Google Trends


Google searches begin to pick up but are still significantly below pre-COVID-19 levels

Google Trends | Interest in Malta

Source: Google trends

-

20

40

60

80

100

Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20

Ind

ex

UK's Google search for Malta

31%

-

20

40

60

80

100

Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20

Ind

ex

France's Google search for Malta

28%

-

20

40

60

80

100

Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20

Ind

ex

Italy's Google search for Malta

35%

-

20

40

60

80

100

Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20

Ind

ex

Germany's Google search for Malta

34%



Incentive Tool


Consumption TrendsAs at 27th June Source: Deloitte Global State of Consumer Tracker


An ideal platform to track post-COVID-19 consumer behaviour trends across the world

Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker

Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/consumer-behavior-trends-state-of-the-consumer-tracker.html



Incentive Tool

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/consumer-behavior-trends-state-of-the-consumer-tracker.html


With the progressive decline in number of daily cases, anxiety levels are steadily improving across all geographies

Global Anxiety Levels


8%

(4%)

(7%)

(21%)(22%)

(21%)

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

19-Apr 03-May 16-May 30-May 13-Jun 27-Jun

(%)

France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain UK Average



Incentive Tool


Although improving, concerns about well-being remain very high across all countries

Consumer Concerns | Physical Well-being


51%

44%

49%

45%

54%

46%

41%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020

%

All 18-34 35-55 55+

72% 74% 76%

67%

42% 43% 43% 41% 39% 41% 43%

36%

28% 31%

28% 25%

38% 40% 38% 37% 42% 43%

47%

37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

All 18-34 35-55 55+

27/06/2020

%

Spain France Italy Netherlands Germany UK



Incentive Tool


70% improvement in number of consumers feeling safer to go to physical stores

Consumer Concerns | Feel safe going to the store


36%

56%

32%

54%

34%

55%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%


%

All 18-34 35-55 55+

52%

58%

47%

53%

59% 61%

54%

62% 60% 55%

59% 63% 62%

66% 63%

58%

47% 50%

47% 46% 50%

47%

53% 50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

All 18-34 35-55 55+

27/06/2020

%




Incentive Tool


Flight safety remains a concern across all age brackets and geographies

Consumer Concerns | Feel safe taking a flight


23% 27%

30%

35%

22%

28%

17%

22%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%


%

All 18-34 35-55 55+

24%

30%

23% 22%

39% 42%

38% 39%

30%

36%

31%

27%

23%

32%

26%

15%

22%

36%

24%

13%

24%

32%

26%

16%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

All 18-34 35-55 55+

27/06/2020

%




Incentive Tool


Propensity to spend on travel is steadily improving across all age brackets - Negative responses still exceed positive responses

Net Spending Intent | Travel


(55%)

(25%)

(42%)

(7%)

(53%)

(71%)

(24%)

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020

%

All 18-34 35-55 55+



Incentive Tool


Propensity to travel is progressively aligning across geographies

Net Spending Intent | Travel by country


(64%)

(32%)

(44%)

(23%)

(22%)

(30%)

(24%)

(63%)

(25%)

(67%)

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%


%




Incentive Tool


Notwithstanding improved disposition to travel, intentions to book remain fairly flat

Travel | Planning to book an international flight


16%

19%

25%

27%

17%

19%

9%

13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%


%

All 18-34 35-55 55+



Incentive Tool


Planned booking intent is fairly aligned across geographies

Travel | Planning to book an international flight by country


15%

16%

22% 22%

11%

19%

13%

21%

16%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%


%

Spain France Italy Netherland Germany UK



Incentive Tool


Consumers are steadily feeling less concerned about eating out

Consumer Concerns | Feel safe going to a restaurant


28%

40%

36%

47%

27%

39%

25%

35%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020

%

All 18-34 35-55 55+

38%

44%

38% 34%

39% 43%

35% 39%

43%

49%

43% 40%

50%

56%

48% 48%

40%

49%

41%

33% 29%

40%

31%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

All 18-34 35-55 55+

27/06/2020

%




Incentive Tool


Younger people are clearly more prepared to eat out

Net Spending Intent | Take-Out / Restaurants


(15%)

8%

(35%)

(54%)

(7%)

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%


%

All 18-34 35-55 55+



Incentive Tool


Evident alignment of trends across geographies

Net Spending Intent | Take-Out / Restaurants by country


(49%)

(9%)

(36%)

(8%)

(41%)

(25%)

-

(9%)(10%)

(50%)

(11%)

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%


%




Incentive Tool


People are steadily becoming more comfortable with the idea of staying in a hotel – 50% improvement

Consumer Concerns| Feel safe staying in a hotel


27%

41%

33%

48%

21%

36%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%


%

All 18-34 35-55 55+

33% 36%

32% 31%

50% 53%

46%

51%

43%

50%

44%

39%

49%

57%

51%

42%

36%

52%

37%

26%

32%

39%

33%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

All 18-34 35-55 55+

27/06/2020

%




Incentive Tool


Younger people are clearly more prepared to plan to book – other age brackets also improving

Travel | Planning to book a hotel


22%

35%

30%

42%

37%

16%

29%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%


%

All 18-34 35-55 55+



Incentive Tool


UK residents are still the most reluctant to consider booking a hotel

Travel | Planning to book a hotel by country


23%

35%

30%

40%

18%

38%

19%

36%

24%

31%

17%

29%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%


%

Spain France Italy Netherland Germany UK



Incentive Tool


More than 50% increase in percentage number of people prepared to book private accommodation

Travel | Planning to book private accommodation


20%

32% 28%

44%

21%

33%

13%

23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%


%

All 18-34 35-55 55+



Incentive Tool


Intention to rent a car has remained relatively flat across all age brackets

Travel | Planning to rent a car


13%

15%

21%

26%

14%

16%

6% 7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%


%

All 18-34 35-55 55+



Incentive Tool


Pursuing Accelerated Recovery


Economic impact of a more accelerated recovery is potentially enormous and stakeholders need to pursue all options of achieving this goal

Hospitality Trends | Recovery of Malta’s Inbound Tourism

Source: Deloitte estimates



Incentive Tool

€(000s) Scn1 Scn2 Scn3 Scn4

Cumulative Tourists

Illustrative Recovery Pace 15% 25% 35% 40%

2020 1,070 1,070 1,070 1,070

2021 1,610 1,745 2,015 2,150

2022 2,150 2,420 2,700 2,700

2023 2,690 2,700 2,700 2,700

2024 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Tourist Expenditure

Illustrative spend per guest night 115 115 115 115

2020 861,350 861,350 861,350 861,350

2021 1,296,050 1,404,725 1,622,075 1,730,750

2022 1,730,750 1,948,100 2,173,500 2,173,500

2023 2,165,450 2,173,500 2,173,500 2,173,500

2024 2,173,500 2,173,500 2,173,500 2,173,500

Lost Tourist Expenditure

2020 (1,312,150) (1,312,150) (1,312,150) (1,312,150)

2021 (877,450) (768,775) (551,425) (442,750)

2022 (442,750) (225,400) - -

2023 (8,050) - - -

2024 - - - -

Total (2,640,400) (2,306,325) (1,863,575) (1,754,900)


Potential Incentive Tool


A form of travel discount card could be used to help stimulate demand

Potential Incentive Tool

Travel Discount Card to be used at:

Retail Outlets Hotels

Restaurants

Gozo Ferry

Local TransportHarbourCruises

Historical Attractions

Events



Incentive Tool

This document is confidential and it is not to be copied or made available to any other party. Deloitte Malta does not accept any liability for use of or reliance on the contents of this document by any person save by the intended recipient(s) to the extent agreed in a Deloitte Malta engagement contract.

The Deloitte Malta firm consists of (i) Deloitte, a civil partnership regulated in terms of the laws of Malta, constituted between limited liability companies, operating at Deloitte Place, Triq L-Intornjatur, Central Business District, CBD 3050 Malta and (ii) the affiliated operating entities: Deloitte Services Limited (C51320), Deloitte Digital & Technology Limited (C70308), Deloitte Digital Limited (C23487), Deloitte Technology Limited (C36094), and Deloitte Audit Limited (C51312), all limited liability companies registered in Malta with registered offices at Deloitte Place, Triq L-Intornjatur, Central Business District, CBD 3050 Malta. The Deloitte Malta firm is an affiliate of Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.l., a company limited by guarantee registered in Italy with registered number 09599600963 and its registered office at Via Tortona no. 25, 20144, Milan, Italy. For further details, please visit www.deloitte.com/mt/about.

Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.l. is the affiliate for the territories of Italy, Greece and Malta of Deloitte NSE LLP, a UK limited liability partnership and member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”). DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL, Deloitte NSE LLP and Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.l. do not provide services to clients. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more about our global network of member firms.

© 2020. For information, contact Deloitte Malta.

Documents

Deloitte MHRA Webinar… · 2020. 7. 16. · 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Q3 2020 Q4 2020 H1 2021 H2 2021 H1 2022 H2 2022 H1 2023 H2 2023 65% of hoteliers believe that pre-COVID-19 levels