“Demographic Change and the Waikato Region”

Dr William CochraneResearch Associate National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA)Convenor Labour Studies Program Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Waikato.billc@waikato.ac.nz

2

Introduction

• Today I intend to;– Provide some context to current demographic

developments;– Outline the projected demographic trajectory of the region;– Place this in the context of national demographic change;– Discuss some of the implications of the end of growth;

• The data on which this presentation is based is drawn largely from SNZ projections and the work of Professor Natalie Jackson.

• I alone bear the responsibility for the interpretation given here.

Percentage of Population 65 and over

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

World Japan NZ HI Aust UK PRC

Perc

enta

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f Pop

ulati

on

New Zealand has a relatively young population for a high income (HI) country

World Bank Population Projection Tables by Country and Group 3

4

With relatively high fertility

2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 2045-501.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

World Japan NZ HI Aust UK PRC

Tota

l Fer

tilit

y Ra

te, B

irth

s pe

r wom

en

5

But as elsewhere, New Zealand is ageing

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

1961

percentage at each age

Male Female

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

2011

percentage at each age

Male Female

7

With the Waikato being slightly older than NZ as a whole

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

5.0 2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0

Waikato Region projected 2031 (Total NZ Unshaded)

percentage at each age

Male Female

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

5.0 2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0

Waikato Region 2011(Total NZ Unshaded)

percentage at each age

Male Female

65+ years: 13.8% (NZ 13.3%) 65+ years: 21.8% (NZ 20.8%)

And within the Waikato Region itself there is considerable variation

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

5.0 2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0

Hamilton City 2011 (Total NZ Unshaded)

percentage at each age

Male Female

65+ years: 10.7% 65+ years: 23.2%

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

5.0 2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0

Thames-Coromandel 2011(Total NZ Unshaded)

percentage at each age

Male Female

Hamilton City = 6th lowest percentage of population 65+ in NZ

TCDC = 2nd highest percentage of population 65+ in NZ

With pronounced youth deficits in some areas

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

5.0 2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0

South Waikato 2011 (Total NZ Unshaded)

percentage at each age

Male Female

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

5.0 2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0

Matamata-Piako 2011(Total NZ Unshaded)

percentage at each age

Male Female

65+ years: 17.3% 65+ years: 14.6%

10

Share of NZ’s future growth will be most uneven

Nor

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Auc

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Wai

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Bay

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Haw

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Tara

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Man

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...

Wel

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Tasm

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Nel

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Mar

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Wes

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Cant

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Ota

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-100

10203040506070 2006-2011

2011-16

2016-21

2021-26

2026-31

Perc

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f all

grow

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Similarly within the Waikato growth will be unevenly distributed

11

Projected Net Change 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Hamilton City 11000 9900 9900 9700 9600Hauraki* 450 150 50 -100 -200Matamata-Piako 700 400 300 200 0Otorohanga 20 -150 -190 -220 -270South Waikato -400 -700 -900 -900 -1100Taupo 700 400 500 300 100Thames-Coromandel* 400 200 100 100 0Waikato 4700 3700 3700 3700 3400Waipa 2300 1800 1600 1400 1100Waitomo -40 -140 -140 -190 -250Waikato RC 19900 15300 15100 14000 12400

* includes Natural Decline

12

With high growth in the older age groups

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120Waikato Region: Projected change by age (percent)

2011-2021 (7.4%)2011-2031 (13.8%)

Perc

enta

ge C

hang

e

13

Waikato is not alone in seeing the end of growth in some TA

(36 percent of NZ TAs experienced population decline 1996-2011)

% % %Ruapehu -22.5 Gore -8.9 Clutha -4.6

Wairoa -18.5 Opotiki -7.1 Waitomo -4.1

Chatham Islands -15.8 Buller -6.5 McKenzie -3.1

Kawerau -14.7 Otorohanga -6.4 Invercargill -2.2

Rangateiki -11.6 Stratford -6.1 Waimate -1.9

South Waikato* -11.6 Wanganui -5.4 Gisborne -1.3

South Taranaki -9.7 Waitaki* -5.0 Grey -0.7

Tararua -9.5 Southland -4.8 Horowhenua* -0.3

*experienced natural decline

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The end of growth

• Between 2011 and 2031, ALL ‘growth’ in 56 of NZ’s 67 Territorial Authorities (84%) projected to be at 65+ years; all other age groups (combined 0-64 yrs) projected to decline– 23 of these TAs likely to experience overall decline – 12 likely to experience both net migration loss and natural

decline

• Of the remaining 11 TAs:– 95+% of growth at 65+ (Christchurch; Whangarei)– 60-63% growth at 65+ (Waik; Palm. Nth; Waimak.)– 44-46% growth at 65+ (Wtg; Selwyn; TGA)– 36-37% growth at 65+ (Auck; Ham; Queenstown)

15

Responses to the end of population growth

• Population aging and the uneven distribution of growth is not a local issue, it is an issue of national significance,

• Local government in areas experiencing population decline should not be expected to, and are likely to be unable to given the declining rating base, bear the cost of adjustment to lower population levels and older populations.

16

Responses to the end of population growth

• Given the extent of the problem what is required is national level population and spatial planning,

• In evolving these plans we have much overseas experience to draw on as much of Europe and parts of North America are already well along this path,

• Central government is crucial as it alone can guarantee equitable access to quality infrastructure and education

17

Responses to the end of population growth

• Arguably central government has a role in providing support to small and medium sized enterprises (SME) in declining regions as well as subsidising employment.

• Here local governance can play a key role by fostering and facilitating the development of SME

• Local governance is also key to facilitating the development of local responses to population decline, particularly in the area of innovative service delivery.