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Demographic Trends in Russia: Demographic Trends in Russia: Long View of the Past and Long View of the Past and
Short View of the FutureShort View of the Future
Sergei V. ZakharovInstitute of Demography (IDEM)
State University – Higher School of Economics (HSE)Moscow, Russia
“Russian Demographic Situation”Informal seminar
Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceJanuary 26, 2012Washington D.C.
Completed Cohort and Period Total Fertility During the Completed Cohort and Period Total Fertility During the Demographic Transition in Russia (average number of Demographic Transition in Russia (average number of births to a woman by age 50): birth cohorts 1841-1980, births to a woman by age 50): birth cohorts 1841-1980, period 1897-2010period 1897-2010
2
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
Calendar Year
Bir
ths
per
wo
man
Birth Cohort
Period
Cohort
Source: Zakharov S.V. (2008). Russian Federation: From the first to second demographic transition. Demographic Research. Vol. 19, p.910 (http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol19/24/ ). (Updated for 2010 data)
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Birth Cohort
Bir
ths
per
wo
man
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
Calendar Year
Period
Cohort
1.85-1.90
1.6
Period ASFR, Russia: 1979-2010, per 1000Period ASFR, Russia: 1979-2010, per 1000
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
18
19
20
21
22
23
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
24
25
26
27
28
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
30
31
32
33
34
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
The Uncertainty of Forecast ScenariosThe Uncertainty of Forecast Scenarios:: Whether considerable growth of fertility is possible?Whether considerable growth of fertility is possible?
4
Optimism of Policy Makers,Optimism of Policy Makers,
Pessimism of TheoristsPessimism of Theoristsandand
Common Sense of PeopleCommon Sense of People
Policy makers and general public show unfounded Policy makers and general public show unfounded optimism: the “fertility problem” seems easily optimism: the “fertility problem” seems easily manageablemanageable and therefore must be solvedand therefore must be solved
At ordinary level, it is believed that the money (benefits) solves everything
The official ideology (including such an active player as the church) rely on the ideas of traditionalism and national patriotism
According to them, the new population policy adopted in 2007, no doubt, gives positive results
Professional skepticism is not taken into account
5
OPTIMISM OF POLICY MAKERSOPTIMISM OF POLICY MAKERS
Russian Specialists believe that the Change in Russian Specialists believe that the Change in Future Fertility is not that UncertainFuture Fertility is not that Uncertain
The plausible value is 1.5-1.7 for foreseeable future (up to 2030)
Completed cohort fertility tends to stabilize at this level Special adjusted period fertility measures controlling
for age and parity stand for that Public opinion surveys about desired and expected
number of children support this as well Russian and international experience tell us that family
policy focusing on fertility stimulation mostly has tempo rather than quantum effects
6
PESSIMISM OF THEORISTSPESSIMISM OF THEORISTS
‘‘How would Policy Measures-2007 affect your How would Policy Measures-2007 affect your childbearing-related behavior?’, a question of the childbearing-related behavior?’, a question of the RusGGS-2007RusGGS-2007
Would have as many children as planned but sooner then planned – 10%
Would have, perhaps, more children than planned – 8% Will certainly have more children than planned – 1% Measures will have no effect: respondents will not
change their plans regarding the number and timing of births – 81%
7
COMMON SENSE OF PEOPLECOMMON SENSE OF PEOPLE
8
Period Parity Progression Ratios: Russia, 1979-2010Period Parity Progression Ratios: Russia, 1979-2010(Proportion of women moving from parity n to parity n+1 during the calendar year)
VISIBLE EFFECTS OF NEW POLICY VISIBLE EFFECTS OF NEW POLICY MEASURESMEASURES??
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Ãî äû
0-->1
1-->2
2-->3
3-->4
4-->5
Intentions of having the next child, respondents Intentions of having the next child, respondents aged 25-35, %aged 25-35, %
Parity GGS-2004 GGS-2007 GGS-2011
0 9191 8585 8787
1 7171 7474 7272
2 2929 3232 3232
3 2222 3030 2020
All 6464 6666 6767
COMMON SENSE OF PEOPLECOMMON SENSE OF PEOPLE
Actual and Projected CTFR According to Different Actual and Projected CTFR According to Different Scenarios, Russia, 1930-1985 Birth CohortsScenarios, Russia, 1930-1985 Birth Cohorts
1.31.41.51.61.71.81.9
22.12.22.3
1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Birth cohort of women
Bir
ths p
er
wo
man
Actual Constant period ASFR in 2010
Constant cohort ASFR pattern Trend cohort Q(x, i) in 2001-2006
Trend cohort Q(x,i) in 2006-2010
MORTALITYMORTALITY
The Uncertainty of Forecast ScenariosThe Uncertainty of Forecast Scenarios::
11
Mortality Decline is a Challenge and Mortality Decline is a Challenge and a Categorical Imperativea Categorical Imperative
Life Expectancy at Birth in G8 Countries, Males (left) Life Expectancy at Birth in G8 Countries, Males (left) and Females (right): 1960-2009and Females (right): 1960-2009
12
50,00
55,00
60,00
65,00
70,00
75,00
80,00
85,00
90,00
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Males
Spain
Italy
France
Germany (West)
UK
Japan
USA
Russia
50,00
55,00
60,00
65,00
70,00
75,00
80,00
85,00
90,00
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Females
Spain
Italy
France
Germany (West)
UK
Japan
USA
Russia
Proportion of Men and Women of Age 20 expected to Proportion of Men and Women of Age 20 expected to live through Age 60: Germany (Western and Eastern), live through Age 60: Germany (Western and Eastern), 1960-2005, and Russia, 1960-2009, %1960-2005, and Russia, 1960-2009, %
13
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Per
cen
t
Men
Western Germany
Eastern Germany
Russia
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Per
cen
t
Women
Western Germany
Eastern Germany
Russia
14
Correlation between Correlation between Life Expectancy Life Expectancy (red curve) and and Age-Standardized Mortality Rate from Alcohol Age-Standardized Mortality Rate from Alcohol PoisoningPoisoning (blue curve): RussiaRussia, 1955-2006 (Е., 1955-2006 (Е. Andreev) Andreev)
Russian “Chronic Disease”
The difference in life expectancy at birth between The difference in life expectancy at birth between men and women in selected countries, 2009, HFAmen and women in selected countries, 2009, HFA
Infant mortality rate in some countries, HFAInfant mortality rate in some countries, HFA
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Czech Republic Finland Hungary Poland
Portugal Russia EU EU-15
Infant mortality in Russia: ROSSTAT estimates and IDEM estimates adjusted for dead children with low birth weight
17,417,818
19,918,618,1
17,417,216,516,9
15,314,6
13,312,4
11,611
10,29,4
8,5 8,17,5
19,219,319,6
22,521,220,7
19,819,719 19,4
17,616,8
15,414,3
13,312,6
11,811
10 9,79
7
11
15
19
23
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Official data Taking into account the dead weight of 500-999
For Specialists the Uncertainty of Future Mortality For Specialists the Uncertainty of Future Mortality Change is High (1/2)Change is High (1/2)
Reasons for Optimism: A sustained historical downward trend in infant and child
mortality The fight with a dangerous alcohol consumption has started The “Health” national project has substantially increased public
investment in health The program of hypertension control, apparently, has a positive
effect Importation of medical technology actively continues
18
Life Expectancy in Several Eastern European Life Expectancy in Several Eastern European Countries: 1970-2007Countries: 1970-2007
Lessons of Neighbors
19
Contribution ofContribution of age groups and major classes of age groups and major classes of causes of death to change in life expectancy in causes of death to change in life expectancy in Russia, 2005-2010, malesRussia, 2005-2010, males
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0
1-4
5-9
10-
14
15-
19
20-
24
25-
29
30-
34
35-
39
40-
44
45-
49
50-
54
55-
59
60-
64
65-
69
70-
74
75-
79
80-
84
85
+
Ischaemic heart diseases Cerebrovascular diseases Other cardio-vascular diseases
Diseases of the respiratory system Neoplasms Diseases of the digestive system
Injury and poisoning Ill-defined diseases Other
Contribution ofContribution of age groups and major classes of age groups and major classes of causes of death to change in life expectancy in causes of death to change in life expectancy in Russia, 2005-2010, femalesRussia, 2005-2010, females
-0,02
0,00
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
0
1-4
5-9
10-
14
15-
19
20-
24
25-
29
30-
34
35-
39
40-
44
45-
49
50-
54
55-
59
60-
64
65-
69
70-
74
75-
79
80-
84
85
+
Ischaemic heart diseases Cerebrovascular diseases Other cardio-vascular diseases
Diseases of the respiratory system Neoplasms Diseases of the digestive system
Injury and poisoning Ill-defined diseases Other
For Specialists the Uncertainty of Future Mortality For Specialists the Uncertainty of Future Mortality Change is High (2/2)Change is High (2/2)
Reasons for Pessimism: The long-run trend since mid-1960s is negative Significant fluctuations in mortality at middle (working) ages,
which began during the anti-alcohol campaign in the mid of the1980s
No signs of the second epidemiological transition (life expectancy in the elderly population is not increasing)
System of free public health deteriorates. National programs and reforms in public health are chaotic, inconsistent, and often have the character of PR events. The system of expert evaluations of program effectiveness is absent.
22
MIGRATIONMIGRATION
The Uncertainty of Forecast ScenariosThe Uncertainty of Forecast Scenarios::
23
Immigration: Salvation or Trojan Horse?Immigration: Salvation or Trojan Horse?
24
Net Migration in Russia: registered in 1970-2008 and Net Migration in Russia: registered in 1970-2008 and adjusted after 2002 Census in 1989-2002adjusted after 2002 Census in 1989-2002,, thousands thousands ((annual change of permanent population due to immigrationannual change of permanent population due to immigration))
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
по данным текущего учета по данным переписи населения 2002 года
The Myth of the ‘Rough Stream’
Uncertainty of Immigration Future: Inconsistent Uncertainty of Immigration Future: Inconsistent State Policy, Nationalistic Sentiments of Public State Policy, Nationalistic Sentiments of Public
Russian government policy focuses on bureaucratic measures to combat illegal immigration. The policy of integration and absorption is declarative in nature.
Program to bring Russian-speaking and skilled expatriates/ «compatriots» back to Russia is an ineffective propaganda campaign.
Socio-cultural distance between migrants and Russian citizens is growing because of the arrival of the titular ethnic groups from Central Asia
Extremely low tolerance of the Russian population to migrants, bordering on chauvinism. Significant part of the political elite shares the ideas of conservative nationalism.
25
Uncertainty of Immigration Future: a fast growth in Uncertainty of Immigration Future: a fast growth in numbers ofnumbers of guest workersguest workers in response to an in response to an increasing increasing demanddemand
In Russia, the disproportion between the vast territory and a shrinking population is increasing
Sustained growth of the Russian economy is hardly possible not only without structural upgrades, or radically higher returns on human capital, but without an increase in migration
The number of migrant workers in the country is increasing rapidly. In 2005 it was 1% of the total employed, in 2010 - more than 10%
Russian business lobby reinforces its interest in immigrants
26
Projections of Net Migrants Needed to Avoid Projections of Net Migrants Needed to Avoid Population Decline (Replacement Level of Migration) Population Decline (Replacement Level of Migration) in 2000-2050: Russia and Germany, thousandsin 2000-2050: Russia and Germany, thousands
Germany Russia
Constant
Total population
Constant
Age group 15-64
Constant
Total population
Constant
Age group 15-64
2000-2025 6978 11816 11120 159512025-2050 10209 12514 13776 19805
Total 17187 24330 24896 35756Average
per year330 460 470 680
Source: Replacement Migration. United Nations. 2001. ST/ESA/SER.A/20627
28
Number of Registered Labor Migrants, millionsNumber of Registered Labor Migrants, millions
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
The total number of labor migrants in Russia is 6-7 millions (estimates of the Independent Center of Migration Studies)
Inescapable Reality