Demographic Trends in Washington County

Washington County CPO4B

Demographic Trends in Washington County

Jason Jurjevich, Acting DirectorNick Chun, Oregon Population Forecast Program ManagerPopulation Research CenterCollege of Urban and Public Affairs

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Between 2000 and 2018 Oregon grew each year, gaining over 770,000 residents. Year-to-year growth during the 18 year period ranged from a low of about 20,000 to a high of nearly 65,000.

Oregon Population

• 4,195,300 in 2018

• one year growth of 54,200 (1.3%)

• over 770,000 added since 2000

• population doubled since 1970

Average Annual Growth Rate

Period Oregon WA CA USA

1990-2000 1.9% 1.9% 1.3% 1.2%

2000-2010 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9%

2010-2018 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7%

Presenter

Presentation Notes

1990 = 2,842,321 2000 = 3,421,399 2010 = 3,831,074 2018 = 4,195,300 1990-2000 Growth = 579,078 (20.4%) 2000-2010 Growth = 409,675 (12.0%) California’s “slow” growth entails adding over 2.5 million residents between 4/1/2010 and 7/1/2018.

Components of Population Change(“Demographic Balancing Equation”)

Population Change = Births – Deaths + In Migration – Out Migration

Simplified:

Population Change = Natural Increase + Net Migration

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Population change in a given area occurs due to four demographic events: people are born, people die, people move into the area, people move out of the area.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was low during the “baby bust” of the late 1960s and early 1970s, but it is plunging again due to low fertility rates and the aging population. The early 1980s recession prompted more people to move out of Oregon than into it.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Due to an aging population and declining birth rates, natural increase now contributes less to Oregon’s population growth than at any time since the 1930s. The number of births to Oregon residents from July 2017 to June 2018 was about 14 percent lower than its recent peak in 2007-08. The number of deaths continues to climb due to the growth in older population. Nick’s Notes (should we add this?): Oregon is expected to transition to a natural decrease by around 2030

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Contrasting the slowdown in natural increase, net migration has accelerated, as the number of people moving to Oregon exceeded the number moving out by more than 40,000 for the fourth consecutive year. In the four years since 2014, net migration has resulted in about 200,000 additional Oregon residents, accounting for 85 percent of the state’s growth.

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thComponents of Washington County Population Growth, 2000 to 2017

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Natural Increase accounts for a larger share of Washington County’s Population Growth (~1/3), though it follows statewide trends and has declined steadily since 2010. Washington County’s migration has buoyed growth in recent years and accounts for roughly 1/6 of Oregon’s total net in-migration

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The Oregon portion of the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro metro area is home to 48 percent of Oregon’s population. It accounted for half of the state’s growth due to net migration between the 2010 Census and our July 2018 population estimates, and four fifths of the state’s natural increase. Other Oregon metros all had significant net growth due to net migration, but relatively little growth due to natural increase. Most of the natural increase shown for the eight metro counties outside of the Portland area is attributable to Marion County. In one metro county, Josephine, natural increase between 2010 and 2017 was negative, with more deaths than births. The number of deaths to residents of Oregon’s 23 non-metro counties since 2010 is slightly greater than the number of births. Natural increase occurred in non-metro counties with relatively large Latino populations but was offset by decreases in other metro counties. Statewide, the white, non-Latino population grows only due to net migration, as natural increase for white, non-Latinos is negative.

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2035OR- 2035 Male OR-2035 Female

Wash County- 2035 Male Wash County- 2035 Female

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2010OR- 2010 Male OR-2010 Female

Wash County- 2010 Male Wash County- 2010 Female

Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 2013 Long-Term Population Forecasts,Oregon Population Forecast Program: Coordinated Population Forecast for Washington County (2017-2067).

Oregon and Washington County Population Pyramids:2010 and 2035.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

While Washington County is younger than Oregon (36.9 vs 39.3)

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Washington County — Age Specific Fertility Rates

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2010 3yr avg

2015 3yr avg

2000 3yr 2010 3yr 2015 3yr

Total Fertility Rate 2.20 1.82 1.66

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Age-specific fertility rates have fallen sharply for women under age 30, and increased slightly for women age 30 and older. In 2017, TFR for Washington County was 1.5

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Washington County and Oregon—Age Specific Migration Rates (2000 to 2010)

Washington County Oregon

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Censuses. Calculated by Population Research Center (PRC).

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Net in/out migration rates for Washington County and Oregon. Example: 400 net in-migrants per 1000 people 30 to 34 year old Take away: 20-39 year olds made up a strong majority of net in-migrants for Washington County in the 2000s, Oregon saw net in-migration of all age groups except 85+ - However, these migration patterns aren’t indicative of most of Oregon’s Counties. Next slide.

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Washington County, Yamhill County, and Oregon- Age Specific Migration Rates (2000 to 2010)

Washington CountyColumbia CountyOregon

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Censuses. Calculated by Population Research Center (PRC).

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Columbia County’s migration rates is similar to most of Oregon’s Counties. Families and their children migrate into the county, post grads leave and elderly leave for end of life care and social support.

Study Area

Source: Census 2016-2012 5 year ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS)

Socio-Economic Profile

Mover: Lived in a different residence 1 year ago Nonmover: Lived in the same residence 1 year ago

• Population Research Center: www.pdx.edu/prc• Nick Chun [email protected]

http://www.pdx.edu/prc

mailto:[email protected]

2000 and 2010 Census Profile

CPO 4B Approximation based on census blocks

POPULATION 2000 2010 Change

SEX AND AGE

Total population 28,616 100.0% 34,569 100.0% 5,953 20.8%

Under 5 years 2,422 8.5% 2,383 6.9% ‐39 ‐1.6%

5 to 9 years 2,380 8.3% 2,629 7.6% 249 10.5%

10 to 14 years 2,214 7.7% 2,689 7.8% 475 21.5%

15 to 19 years 1,885 6.6% 2,372 6.9% 487 25.8%

20 to 24 years 1,639 5.7% 1,764 5.1% 125 7.6%

25 to 29 years 2,063 7.2% 2,086 6.0% 23 1.1%

30 to 34 years 2,369 8.3% 2,353 6.8% ‐16 ‐0.7%

35 to 39 years 2,777 9.7% 2,660 7.7% ‐117 ‐4.2%

40 to 44 years 2,683 9.4% 2,862 8.3% 179 6.7%

45 to 49 years 2,389 8.3% 2,911 8.4% 522 21.9%

50 to 54 years 1,925 6.7% 2,815 8.1% 890 46.2%

55 to 59 years 1,270 4.4% 2,391 6.9% 1,121 88.3%

60 to 64 years 835 2.9% 1,783 5.2% 948 113.5%

65 to 69 years 544 1.9% 1,066 3.1% 522 96.0%

70 to 74 years 474 1.7% 699 2.0% 225 47.5%

75 to 79 years 351 1.2% 437 1.3% 86 24.5%

80 to 84 years 230 0.8% 354 1.0% 124 53.9%

85 years and over 166 0.6% 315 0.9% 149 89.8%

Median age (years) 33.6 36.9 3.3

Under 18 years 8,265 28.9% 9,341 27.0% 1,076 13.0%

18 to 64 years 18,586 64.9% 22,357 64.7% 3,771 20.3%

65 years and over 1,765 6.2% 2,871 8.3% 1,106 62.7%

Male population 14,320 100.0% 17,010 100.0% 2,690 18.8%

Under 5 years 1,297 9.1% 1,201 7.1% ‐96 ‐7.4%

5 to 9 years 1,223 8.5% 1,334 7.8% 111 9.1%

10 to 14 years 1,120 7.8% 1,363 8.0% 243 21.7%

15 to 19 years 985 6.9% 1,219 7.2% 234 23.8%

20 to 24 years 792 5.5% 878 5.2% 86 10.9%

25 to 29 years 1,039 7.3% 1,051 6.2% 12 1.2%

30 to 34 years 1,178 8.2% 1,109 6.5% ‐69 ‐5.9%

35 to 39 years 1,371 9.6% 1,317 7.7% ‐54 ‐3.9%

40 to 44 years 1,287 9.0% 1,425 8.4% 138 10.7%

45 to 49 years 1,192 8.3% 1,407 8.3% 215 18.0%

50 to 54 years 971 6.8% 1,371 8.1% 400 41.2%

55 to 59 years 649 4.5% 1,147 6.7% 498 76.7%

60 to 64 years 422 2.9% 870 5.1% 448 106.2%

65 to 69 years 267 1.9% 499 2.9% 232 86.9%

70 to 74 years 226 1.6% 330 1.9% 104 46.0%

75 to 79 years 152 1.1% 210 1.2% 58 38.2%

80 to 84 years 93 0.6% 153 0.9% 60 64.5%

85 years and over 56 0.4% 126 0.7% 70 125.0%

Page 1 of 5

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census, Summary File 1; 2000 Census, Summary File 1.

Tabulated by Population Research Center, Portland State University. www.pdx.edu/prc



POPULATION (continued) 2000 2010 Change

Male population (continued)


Under 18 years 4,294 30.0% 4,727 27.8% 433 10.1%

18 to 64 years 9,232 64.5% 10,965 64.5% 1,733 18.8%

65 years and over 794 5.5% 1,318 7.7% 524 66.0%

Female population 14,296 100.0% 17,559 100.0% 3,263 22.8%

Under 5 years 1,125 7.9% 1,182 6.7% 57 5.1%

5 to 9 years 1,157 8.1% 1,295 7.4% 138 11.9%

10 to 14 years 1,094 7.7% 1,326 7.6% 232 21.2%

15 to 19 years 900 6.3% 1,153 6.6% 253 28.1%

20 to 24 years 847 5.9% 886 5.0% 39 4.6%

25 to 29 years 1,024 7.2% 1,035 5.9% 11 1.1%

30 to 34 years 1,191 8.3% 1,244 7.1% 53 4.5%

35 to 39 years 1,406 9.8% 1,343 7.6% ‐63 ‐4.5%

40 to 44 years 1,396 9.8% 1,437 8.2% 41 2.9%

45 to 49 years 1,197 8.4% 1,504 8.6% 307 25.6%

50 to 54 years 954 6.7% 1,444 8.2% 490 51.4%

55 to 59 years 621 4.3% 1,244 7.1% 623 100.3%

60 to 64 years 413 2.9% 913 5.2% 500 121.1%

65 to 69 years 277 1.9% 567 3.2% 290 104.7%

70 to 74 years 248 1.7% 369 2.1% 121 48.8%

75 to 79 years 199 1.4% 227 1.3% 28 14.1%

80 to 84 years 137 1.0% 201 1.1% 64 46.7%

85 years and over 110 0.8% 189 1.1% 79 71.8%


Under 18 years 3,971 27.8% 4,614 26.3% 643 16.2%

18 to 64 years 9,354 65.4% 11,392 64.9% 2,038 21.8%

65 years and over 971 6.8% 1,553 8.8% 582 59.9%

AREA AND DENSITY

Land Area ‐ Acres1 5,938 5,431

Persons per acre 4.8 6.4 1.5 32.1%

Persons per square mile 3,084 4,074 990 32.1%

RACE


White alone 24,301 84.9% 27,333 79.1% 3,032 12.5%

Black or African American alone 325 1.1% 567 1.6% 242 74.5%

American Indian and Alaska Native alone 170 0.6% 232 0.7% 62 36.5%

Asian alone 2,039 7.1% 3,418 9.9% 1,379 67.6%

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone 86 0.3% 178 0.5% 92 107.0%

Some Other Race alone 832 2.9% 1,408 4.1% 576 69.2%

Two or More Races 863 3.0% 1,433 4.1% 570 66.0%

Page 2 of 5






RACE (continued)

Race alone or in combination with one or more other races2

White 25,051 87.5% 28,626 82.8% 3,575 14.3%

Black or African American 474 1.7% 858 2.5% 384 81.0%

American Indian and Alaska Native 355 1.2% 487 1.4% 132 37.2%

Asian 2,383 8.3% 4,187 12.1% 1,804 75.7%

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 188 0.7% 318 0.9% 130 69.1%

Some Other Race 1,074 3.8% 1,661 4.8% 587 54.7%

HISPANIC OR LATINO AND RACE


Hispanic or Latino 2,035 7.1% 3,653 10.6% 1,618 79.5%

Not Hispanic or Latino 26,581 92.9% 30,916 89.4% 4,335 16.3%

White alone 23,228 81.2% 25,417 73.5% 2,189 9.4%

Black or African American alone 316 1.1% 525 1.5% 209 66.1%

American Indian and Alaska Native alone 155 0.5% 168 0.5% 13 8.4%

Asian alone 2,025 7.1% 3,388 9.8% 1,363 67.3%

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone 84 0.3% 173 0.5% 89 106.0%

Some Other Race alone 44 0.2% 61 0.2% 17 38.6%

Two or More Races 729 2.5% 1,184 3.4% 455 62.4%

RELATIONSHIP


In households 28,585 99.9% 34,407 99.5% 5,822 20.4%

In family households 24,872 86.9% 29,885 86.5% 5,013 20.2%

Householder 7,714 27.0% 9,280 26.8% 1,566 20.3%

Spouse3 6,440 22.5% 7,463 21.6% 1,023 15.9%

Child 9,089 31.8% 10,933 31.6% 1,844 20.3%

Own child under 18 years 7,848 27.4% 8,775 25.4% 927 11.8%

Other relatives 1,036 3.6% 1,458 4.2% 422 40.7%

Nonrelatives 593 2.1% 751 2.2% 158 26.6%

In nonfamily households 3,713 13.0% 4,522 13.1% 809 21.8%

Householder 2,785 9.7% 3,389 9.8% 604 21.7%

Nonrelatives 928 3.2% 1,133 3.3% 205 22.1%

Population under 18 in households 8,259 99.9% 9,325 99.8% 1,066 12.9%

Population 18 to 64 in households 18,577 100.0% 22,271 99.6% 3,694 19.9%

Population 65 and over in households 1,749 99.1% 2,811 97.9% 1,062 60.7%

In group quarters 31 0.1% 162 0.5% 131 422.6%

Page 3 of 5






GROUP QUARTERS

Total group quarters population 31 100.0% 162 100.0% 131 422.6%

Institutionalized population 0 0.0% 17 10.5% 17 ‐‐

Male 0 0.0% 7 4.3% 7 ‐‐

Female 0 0.0% 10 6.2% 10 ‐‐

Noninstitutionalized population 31 100.0% 145 89.5% 114 367.7%

Male 10 32.3% 61 37.7% 51 510.0%

Female 21 67.7% 84 51.9% 63 300.0%

Population under 18 in group quarters 6 0.1% 16 0.2% 10 166.7%

Population 18 to 64 in group quarters 9 0.0% 86 0.4% 77 855.6%

Population 65 and over in group quarters 16 0.9% 60 2.1% 44 275.0%

HOUSEHOLDS 2000 2010 Change

Total households 10,499 100.0% 12,669 100.0% 2,170 20.7%

Family households (families) 4 7,714 73.5% 9,280 73.2% 1,566 20.3%

With own children under 18 years 4,292 40.9% 4,823 38.1% 531 12.4%

Husband‐wife family 6,440 61.3% 7,463 58.9% 1,023 15.9%

With own children under 18 years 3,442 32.8% 3,727 29.4% 285 8.3%

Male householder, no wife present 365 3.5% 566 4.5% 201 55.1%

With own children under 18 years 199 1.9% 328 2.6% 129 64.8%

Female householder, no husband present 909 8.7% 1,251 9.9% 342 37.6%

With own children under 18 years 651 6.2% 768 6.1% 117 18.0%

Nonfamily households4 2,785 26.5% 3,389 26.8% 604 21.7%

Householder living alone 2,055 19.6% 2,518 19.9% 463 22.5%

Male 964 9.2% 1,119 8.8% 155 16.1%

65 years and over 94 0.9% 190 1.5% 96 102.1%

Female 1,091 10.4% 1,399 11.0% 308 28.2%

65 years and over 255 2.4% 442 3.5% 187 73.3%

Households with individuals under 18 years 4,484 42.7% 5,083 40.1% 599 13.4%

Households with individuals 65 years and over 1,242 11.8% 2,069 16.3% 827 66.6%

Average household size 2.72 2.72 ‐0.01 ‐0.2%

Average family size 4 3.15 3.14 ‐0.01 ‐0.3%

Page 4 of 5





HOUSING UNITS 2000 2010 Change

Total housing units 11,015 100.0% 13,151 100.0% 2,136 19.4%

Occupied housing units 10,499 95.3% 12,669 96.3% 2,170 20.7%

Owner occupied5 7,007 66.7% 8,630 68.1% 1,623 23.2%

Owned with a mortgage or a loan N/A 7,384 85.6%

Owned free and clear N/A 1,246 14.4%

Renter occupied 3,492 33.3% 4,039 31.9% 547 15.7%

Vacant housing units6 516 4.7% 482 3.7% ‐34 ‐6.6%

For rent 285 55.2% 179 37.1% ‐106 ‐37.2%

For sale only 146 28.3% 159 33.0% 13 8.9%

Rented or sold, not occupied 35 6.8% 21 4.4% ‐14 ‐40.0%

For seasonal, recreational, or occasional use 14 2.7% 38 7.9% 24 171.4%

For migrant workers 0 0.0% 1 0.2% 1 ‐‐

All other vacants 36 7.0% 84 17.4% 48 133.3%

Owner‐occupied housing units 7,007 66.7% 8,630 68.1% 1,623 23.2%

Population in owner‐occupied housing units 20,264 24,398 4,134 20.4%

Average household size of owner‐occupied units 2.89 2.83 ‐0.06 ‐2.1%

Renter‐occupied housing units 3,492 33.3% 4,039 31.9% 547 15.7%

Population in renter‐occupied housing units 8,321 10,009 1,688 20.3%

Average household size of renter‐occupied units 2.38 2.48 0.10 4.2%

Page 5 of 5

1. Land area of the census blocks that approximate the area. The same boundaries were used for both 2000 and 2010; any

differences in land area between 2000 and 2010 reflect changes to census block geography.

2. In combination with one or more of the other races listed. The six numbers may add to more than the total population, and the

six percentages may add to more than 100 percent because individuals may report more than one race.

3. "Spouse" represents spouse of the householder. It does not reflect all spouses in a household. Responses of "same‐sex spouse"

were edited during processing to "unmarried partner."

4. "Family households" consist of a householder and one or more other people related to the householder by birth, marriage, or

adoption. They do not include same‐sex married couples even if the marriage was performed in a state issuing marriage

certificates for same‐sex couples unless there is at least one additional person related to the householder by birth or adoption.

Same‐sex couple households with no relatives of the householder present are tabulated in nonfamily households. "Nonfamily

households" consist of people living alone and households which do not have any members related to the householder.

5. Percentage distribution of ownership categories ("owned with a mortgage or a loan" and "owned free and clear") adds to 100

percent.

6. Percentage distribution of vacancy categories ("for rent," etc.) adds to 100 percent.



Washington County CPO4B

Demographic Trends in Washington County

Jason Jurjevich, Acting DirectorNick Chun, Oregon Population Forecast Program ManagerPopulation Research CenterCollege of Urban and Public Affairs

Presenter

Presentation Notes

There are several layers of what the federal government (OMB) calls “Core Based Statistical Areas” but the most important are Metropolitan Statistical Areas, which are counties or groups of counties with a core urban area of 50,000 or more population. Albany and Grants Pass attained Metropolitan status in 2013, based on the results of the 2010 Census. The City of Grants Pass has fewer than 50,000 residents but its contiguous urbanized area meets the threshold. A total of 13 of Oregon’s 36 counties are in metropolitan statistical areas.

Previous Residence PortlandTri-County

Willamette Valley

SW Oregon & Deschutes

N. Coast &E. Oregon

California 20% 24% 32% 19%

Washington 18% 14% 8% 24%

Rest of West Region 19% 24% 31% 33%

Other U.S. Region 27% 22% 22% 20%

Outside of U.S. 16% 16% 7% 5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2016 5 year American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample

Current Residence

2012-2016 In-migrants by Current and Previous Residence

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Residents relocating from California get a lot of attention in the media and in Oregon’s popular culture. While it is the top source of migrants to Oregon, only about a quarter of Oregon in-migrants are from California. This is reflected in DMV license data and in Census Bureau survey data. However, the share varies regionally within Oregon. Southwest Oregon (Coos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine) and Deschutes get about one third of their new residents from California.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5 year public use microdata sample.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

This illustrates domestic interstate migration only, not including international migration. Source: 2012-2016 ACS 5 year estimates, Public Use Microdata Sample.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census, 2000-2010.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census, 2000-2010 and 2020 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (2018Q3) Population Forecasts.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Although most of the net population growth in the current decade is in older age groups, growth in the age 18 to 54 group is twice that of the 2000s.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census, 2000-2010.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections and 2020 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (2018Q3) Population Forecasts.

Documents

Demographic Trends in Washington County