Demographics And Higher Education In Minnesota

Presentation to Citizens League

Tom Gillaspy, State DemographerMn Dept of Administration

May 2004

Minnesota Ranks Highly In Education Attainment

• Ranks 11th highest in percent age 25 and older with at least a bachelors degree

• Ranks 2nd lowest in percent age 25 and older with less than high school diploma

• Educational attainment improved substantially in the 90s

• Part of the reason for Minnesota’s high rank is the state’s low proportion of minority people

• Migration also added people with levels of education attainment

Educational Attainment Rises

24.8%

20.3%17.6%

21.8%19.6%

24.4%

12.1%

27.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

US LessThan High

School

USBachelorsDegree or

More

Mn LessThan High

School

MnBachelorsDegree or

More

Per

cen

t O

f P

op

ula

tio

n 2

5+

1990

2000

Minnesota Education Attainment Rose Sharply In The 90s

-22.0%

-0.1%

44.1%

2.5%

40.3%

51.8%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Less Than HighSchool

High School

Some College

Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate or Prof Degree

Percent Change 90-00 In Population 25+

2000 Census

Net Migration To Minnesota By Educational Attainment For People Age 25 And Older

16,400

10,000

9,500

14,900

9,700

02,000

4,0006,000

8,00010,000

12,00014,000

16,00018,000

20,000

Less than HighSchool

High School

Some College

Bachelors Degree

Advanced Degree

2000 Census PUMS 5%

Increased DiversityWill Affect Higher Education

Minnesota’s High Rank Partially Due To Lack Of Diversity

• Minnesota’s minority population is growing rapidly, especially in younger ages

• One reason for Minnesota’s high rank in education attainment is its lack of racial and ethnic diversity

• A major challenge facing Minnesota higher education is increasing participation of minority students

Growth In Minority Population Accounted For More Than 100% Of Minnesota’s

Increase In 18-24 Year Olds 1990-2000

442,809

31,916

470,434

72,220

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Total Minority

1990

2000

1990 & 2000 Census

Non-English Speaking Students: While Minneapolis and St. Paul have the largest numbers, some

smaller districts also have substantial proportions

32.8%27.7%27.9%

29.7%25.1%25.8%26.2%

40.9%26.9%

38.5%9.3%

8.8%8.0%

7.0%3.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Brooklyn CenterButterfield

MadeliaMinneapolis

Mountain LakePelican Rapids

St. JamesSt. Paul

Sleepy EyeWorthington

State 03-04State 02-03State 01-02State 00-01State 93-94

Percent of Students in 2003-04

Source: Mn Dept of Education data

Education Attainment Population 25 To 34

16.1%

27.5%

7.6%

34.5%

11.7%

31.7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

% less thanHigh School

% Bachelorsor more

MnStd to US MinorityPopulation

Mn

US

2000 Census

Age 25 to 34 Percent With Bachelors Degree or More

34.5%

12.9%

36.7%

15.7%

7.2%

46.1%

27.5%

10.4%

32.5%

15.3%

10.7%

55.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Total

Latino

White Not Hisp

Black, Not Hisp

Am Indian, Not Hisp

Asian, Not Hisp

United States

Minnesota

2000 Census

Age 25 to 34 Percent With Less Than High School Diploma

7.6%

42.2%

4.3%

18.6%

22.6%

15.9%

16.1%

43.6%

9.0%

18.7%

20.6%

10.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Total

Latino

White Not Hisp

Black, Not Hisp

Am Indian, Not Hisp

Asian, Not Hisp

United States

Minnesota

2000 Census

Percent Of Population 18 To 24 Enrolled In Higher Education

38%

22%

21%

41%

13%

36%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

White

Black

American Indian

Asian

Latino

Total

Percent Enrolled In Higher Education2000 Census PUMS 5%

Distribution Of The PopulationWill Influence The Delivery

Of Education Services

New Suburbs Are Receiving Most Of The Growth

• Minnesota is growing faster than its neighboring states

• Most growth is in the growth donut around the Twin Cities

• Many areas of rural Minnesota have experienced long term population loss and aging

• Political power in the legislature is increasingly reflecting the shifts

Lost Population

Gained Population

Population Change 1920 To 2000Source U.S. Census

State: +63,555

-2,959 to -60 -60 to 300 300 to 9,343

Projected change in population 15 to 242000 to 2010

Higher Education Critical To Future Economic Growth

The Level of Future Economic Growth Will Depend Ever More On A Highly Productive

Labor Force

• Slower growth of the labor force will place more importance on increasing per worker productivity

• Minnesota’s labor force growth will depend largely on continued activity of older workers and migration to the state

• Training of young Minnesotan’s, retraining of older workers and training and certifications of migrants will be key roles of education

Total Annual Earnings, Currently Employed Minnesotans Age 25 to 54

$20,000

$26,000

$30,000

$38,000

$46,000

$57,000

$0

$10,

000

$20,

000

$30,

000

$40,

000

$50,

000

$60,

000

$70,

000

$80,

000

Less Than HighSchool

High School Diploma

Some College

Bachelors Degree

Masters Degree

Advanced Degree

2000 Census PUMS 5%

Projections for 2010—Labor Force

• Labor force will increase to a range of 2.9 mil and 3.1 mil, increases of between 7% and 16%.

• Uncertainty about labor force growth results from uncertainty about migration and labor force participation, especially over 60.

• Most growth will be among 45 to 64 (increase of 32% to 39%). Age 24 to 44 will see a decline as much as 10%.

Projected Labor Force--2003

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Census

Series A

Series B

Series C

Series D

State Demographer projections

Higher Education Workforce Is Also Aging

Higher Education Workforce Is Also Aging

• Corresponds to overall aging of the workforce and especially the government workforce

• Many instructors, administrators, and other workers are in their 40s and 50s

• Will higher education also face a retirement boom in the next decade?

Minnesota Post Secondary Teachers

2300

3000

25002700

3100 3000 2900

2200

1700

1100800

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Under25

25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+

Age Group

2000 Census PUMS 5%

Median Age Of Minnesota Post Secondary Teachers

45

36

45

43

0 10 20 30 40 50

Private Not-for-Profit

Private For-Profit

State Government

Total

2000 Census, PUMS 5%

Trends In College AgePopulation And Enrollment

Aging Population And Enrollments

• Traditional college age population will increase this decade then level off

• K-12 enrollments have already begun to decline

• Extrapolated future enrollment shows little change over the next 25 years

• Most future growth will be in middle-aged to older population likely changing the ordering of budget and society priorities

Minnesota Population Age 18-24

297,071 284,222

433,382

558,498

442,809470,434

535,332507,083

529,325

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Census & State Demographer projection

Minnesota Public School Enrollments Have Peaked: Declines Not Expected To Be

Sharp

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Projections by MnDCFL

Though People Of Many Ages Groups Are Enrolled In Higher Ed, Most Are 18 to 24

35.8%

13.4%

7.8%4.8% 3.9% 3.1% 2.3%

0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

18-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

970

+

Age

Pe

rce

nt

En

roll

ed

In

Hig

he

r E

du

ca

tio

n

Census 2000 PUMS 5%

Interstate Migration Also Affects Enrollments

45,169

15,542

46,441

10,263

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

CollegeUndergrad

Grad/Prof

Out Mig

In Mig

2000 Census PUMS 5%

Extrapolated Higher Education Enrollment For Minnesota

299,000321,000 329,000 329,000 326,000 328,000 335,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Extrapolated from 2000 Census enrollment by 5 year age group to state demographer projections

Impact Of Aging On Higher Education

Aging Will Have A Profound Impact On Society

• Most future growth will be in middle-aged to older population

• Overwhelming growth in the older population will likely change the order of budget and society priorities

• Aging also offers some opportunities for higher education—training for new careers, training and certifying volunteers, learning for fun

Projected Change 2000 to 2030 By Age Group In Minnesota

13 10.1 6.7 5.115.9 18.5

10.80.4 1.6

1220.1

47.9

89.7

134.9130.6

111

99.590.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0-4 5-9 10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Age Group

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

an

ge

Source: State Demographer projection

After 2010, Most Population Growth In Minnesota Will Be In People Age 65+

26%23%

9%16%

60%

95%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30

Ra

tio

Ch

an

g 6

5+

to

To

tal

Po

pu

lati

on

State Demographer projection