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DENIM
INTELLIGENCE REPORT
relevant DEMAND SIGNALS
analyze PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES
actionable BUSINESS INSIGHTS
SOCIAL SEARCH SKUs
the
consumer
AGENDA -----------------------------------------------
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01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
MARKET SCORECARD
PRICE ANALYSIS
EMERGING TRENDS -----------------------------------------------
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CORE SILHOUETTES
BRANDS TO WACH
MARKET INNOVATION
REPORT OVERVIEW
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The denim market is undergoing substantial disruption,
unseen since the rise and fall of premium denim in the
2000s.
1. Customer experience innovation and new players
entering the market are leveling the playing field.
2. Purchasing decisions are moving from brand-driven
to trend-driven.
3. A vintage revival is leading to an influx of new
silhouettes.
DENIM DISRUPTION
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Flare
6%
FAST FASHION
Current Trend: Distressed
Test Opportunity: Step Hem
Current Trend: High Waist
Skinny
Test Opportunity: Cropped
Flare
Current Trend: Frayed Hem
Test Opportunity: Denim
Jacket
Current Trend: Embroidery
Test Opportunity: Lace Up
Skinny/Stretch
55%
Straight
15%
Relaxed
7%
Cropped
7%
Bootcut
6%
Flare
3%
SPECIALTY
Skinny/Stret
ch 72%
Relaxed
6%
Cropped
5%
Bootcut
1%
Distressed
10%
Straight
4%
PREMIUM
Skinny/Stretch
52%
Relaxed
4%
Cropped
15%
Bootcut
4%
Straight
12%
Distressed
7%
LUXURY
Skinny/Stretc
h 40%
Relaxed
4%
Cropped
14%
Bootcut
3% Flare
9%
Straight
20%
Distressed
10%
Flare
2%
Distressed
7%
WOMENS DENIM
FAST FASHION SPECIALTY LUXURY
MENS DENIM
Men’s Slim Fit Jeans Men’s Stretch Jeans
Skinny
40% Slim
22%
Straight
18%
Distressed
3% Tapered
4%
Relaxed
4%
Bootcut
3%
Straight
35%
Slim
18%
Skinny
24%
Tapered
3%
Relaxed
3%
Bootcut
2%
PREMIUM
Stretch
6%
Distressed
4%
Stretch
11%
Straight
34%
Skinny
16%
Slim
29%
Relaxed
1% Bootcut
1% Distressed
6%
Stretch
9%
Tapered
5%
Slim
30%
Skinny
19%
Straight
21%
Tapered
4%
Relaxed
1% Distressed
11%
Stretch
14%
MARKET AUR RANGE DENIM AVERAGE
FULL PRICE %
DIVISION
AVERAGE FULL
PRICE %
FAST FASHION $43.22 $10 - $50 62% 50%
SPECIALTY $71.37 $25 - $100 43% 40%
PREMIUM $149.45 $100 - $250 50% 50%
LUXURY $431.20 $250+ 56% 54%
MARKET AUR RANGE
DENIM
AVERAGE FULL
PRICE %
DIVISION
AVERAGE FULL
PRICE %
FAST FASHION $33.02 $10 - $50 36% 40%
SPECIALTY $69.31 $25 - $100 44% 41%
PREMIUM $147.00 $100 - $250 49% 50%
LUXURY $524.29 $250+ 66% 65%
WOMENS DENIM MENS DENIM
41% 46%
MEN Overall 46% of men’s products are currently at full price
with an AUR of $159.04 and average mkd rate of 24%.
Brands with highest product penetration include Diesel, 7
for all Mankind, Dsquared2, and Levi’s.
Retailers include Yoox, Farfetch, Amazon, and ASOS.
WOMEN Overall there are double the number of women’s products in
the market than men’s jeans. 41% of products are currently
at full price with an AUR $128.43 and average mkd rate of
34%.
Brands with the highest product penetration include J
Brand, Paige, 7 for all Mankind, and Current/Elliot.
Retailers include Yoox, TheRealReal, Farfetch, and Amazon.
products at full price products at full price
MARKET PRICING
MARKET AUR RANGE DENIM AVERAGE
FULL PRICE %
DENIM AVERAGE
MARKDOWN RATE
VALUE / OFF
PRICE $88.09 $10 - 500 21% 51%
AMAZON $88.52 $10 - 500 46% 10%
PRICING ARCHITECTURE
VALUE / OFF-PRICE AMAZON
VALUE vs. AMAZON
MARKET FAN COUNT SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT HIGHEST SOCIAL
ENGAGEMENT
FAST FASHION 154M 25M Forever 21, H&M, Topshop
SPECIALTY 131M 14M Hollister, Calvin Klein, Tommy
Hilfiger
PREMIUM 24M 2.6M Good America, A.P.C., Acne
LUXURY 127M 24M Dolce & Gabbana, Gucci
SOCIAL BUZZ
SOCIAL ACTIONS BY MARKET (JANUARY 2017)*
Market Penetration
Lo
w
Low Hig
h
Hig
h
Gro
wth
Rate
DENIM TREND ANALYSIS
WHAT’S HOT?
bomber jacket
DENIM JACKET
2x denim jacket
Positioned to
move out of the
early adopter
space with 90s
revival,
embroidery, and
distressing
driving this
trend.
outerwear
8x
DENIM CHOKER Nascent, +900%
Search Volume: 3k
AUR: $27.17
SKU’s: 60
NOT JUST JEANS
DENIM SKIRT Growing, +15%
Search Volume: 46k
AUR: $175
SKU’s: 1,800
DENIM OVERALLS Mature
Search Volume: 8k
AUR: $212
SKU’s: 133
EMBELLISHED DISTRESSED HEMS HACKS
TOP TRENDS ON THE RISE
nascent growing seasonal /
volatile
mature
PATCHED JEANS Growing +100%
Search Volume: 3k
Social Actions: 22k
AUR: $144
Products at full price: 44%
SKU’s: 141
Premium / Specialty
EMBROIDERED JEANS Growing +500%
Search Volume: 15k
Social Actions: 170k
AUR: $198
Products at full price: 42%
SKU’s: 1,600
Fast / Luxury
LACE-UP DENIM Nascent +65%
Search Volume: 2k
Social Actions: 42k AUR: $265.37
Products at full price: 56%
SKU’s: 224
Early Adopter
ONE TO WATCH:
RACER / SIDE
STRIPE Early Adopter
EMBELLISHED DENIM
ONE TO WATCH:
SLOGAN RIPPED Early Adopter
DISTRESSED
Growing 50%
Search Volume: 27k
Social Actions: 390k
AUR: $162
Products at full price: 52%
SKU’s: 5,000
Premium / Specialty
FRAYED Nascent/Growing 180%
Search Volume: 1,300
Social Actions: 42k
AUR: $184
Products at full price: 64%
SKU’s: 2,000
Fast / Luxury
RIPPED Growing 30%
Search Volume: 75k
Social Actions: 560k
AUR: $125
Products at full price: 52%
SKU’s: 1,300
Premium / Specialty
DISTRESSED DENIM
RAW HEM Growing +130%
Search Volume: 800
Social Actions: 18k
AUR: $182
Products at full price: 70%
SKU’s: 90
Specialty / Premium
CROP / KICK FLARE Growing 100%
Search Volume: 2,500
Social Actions: 1,400
AUR: $186
Product at full price: 80%
SKU’s: 200
Premium / Luxury
UNVEVEN / STEP
HEM Nascent, +230%
Search Volume: 300
Social Actions: 3,600
AUR: $182
Product at full price: 81%
Early Adopter / Premium
ONE TO WATCH:
RUFFLE HEM Early Adopter
HEM HACKS
FRAYED vs. EMBROIDERED frayed jeans embroidered jeans
STEP HEM FORECAST
step hem jeans velvet boots
social buzz & product styling
SEASONAL: Over the Knee Boots vs. Black Skinny
Jeans
vs.
Boyfriend Jeans & Stan
Smiths
Flare Jeans & Wedge
Heels
KEY ITEM ANALYSIS
OUTFIT: High Waist Jeans vs. Crop Tops
CORE SILHOUETTES
HIGH WAIST / RIPPED
SKINNY BOYFRIEND
growing mature nascent
WIDE LEG
Crop Flare Skinny Ripped High Waist Skinny Jegging
Wide Leg Mom Boyfriend Bootcut
Men's Tapered Men's Slim Stretch Straight Low-rise
nascent growing mature declining
CORE SILHOUETTES
PRODUCT PENETRATION
SEARCH VOLUME
SEARCH GROWTH
Boyfriend + Slip On
vs.
Flare Jean + Wedge Heels
Chambray Shirt: 5 years
Bomber Jacket: 2 years
Midi Skirt: 3 years
Emerging / Test
Silhouette Growing / Top Seller Mature / Core Fit
BOYFRIEND JEANS: when should we break up?
Peplum -
ACCELERATION Boyfriend Jeans - MOMENTUM
Joggers Hybrid Trend
Curve
JOGGERS S
ea
rch
vo
lum
e
Month (2012-2017)
7 FOR ALL MANKIND Fan Count: 85,658
AUR: $135.70
Average Mkd Rate: 29%
J BRAND Fan Count: 347,081
AUR: $157.53
Average Mkd Rate: 27%
JOE’S JEANS Fan Count: 56,228
AUR: $118.60
Average Mkd Rate: 34%
ROCK & REPUBLIC Fan Count: 1,129
AUR: $86.00
Average Mkd Rate: 1%
TRUE RELIGION Fan Count: 236,155
AUR: $123.00
Average Mkd Rate: 36%
CITIZENS OF HUMANITY Fan Count: 121,169
AUR: $206.00
Average Mkd Rate: 19%
Premium Brands: WHERE ARE THEY NOW?
then now future
BACK TO BRANDING?
DIRECT TO CONSUMER
JAPAN
• Denim Heritage
• Selvage
• Fabric
Innovation
Uniqlo - $
Beams - $$
Moussy - $$$
Bethnals- $$
CLOSED – $$$
IRO - $$$$
Marques’ Almeida -
$$$$
LOS ANGELES
• IT Silhouettes
• Made In USA
• Celeb
Endorsed Revice - $$
AMO - $$$
Mother - $$$
GRLFRND - $$$
EUROPE
• Fabric Tradition
• Minimalism
• IT Streetstyle
CENTERS OF INNOVATON
Good American Fan Count: 336k
Social Actions: 2.4M
Brand Prop: 0-24 sizing
AUR: $172
RE/DONE Fan Count: 150k
Social Actions: 640k
Brand Prop: Recycled Vintage
AUR: $291
Mott & Bow Fan Count: 13k
Social Actions: 1,200
Brand Prop: DTC / Try on at Home
AUR: 96-128
THE NEW GUARD
Second Skin Fan Count: 14.7 k
Social Actions: 880k
Brand Prop: Blogger Brand, Seasonless
Overalls
AUR: $230
Mother Denim Fan Count: 79k
Social Actions: 370k
Brand Prop: Indie LA, Miranda Kerr
collection
AUR: $187.79
BRANDS MAKING HEADLINES
3x1 Fan Count: 32k
Social Actions: 740k
Brand Prop: Custom Made
AUR: $177
PATCH BARS • Custom
• Instantaneous
• Interactive
Levis - $$
Madewell - $$
MiH Denim - $$$
Selfridges - $$$$
RETAIL EXPERIENCES
DIY • Perfect Fit
• Selvage Fabric
• One of a Kind
Vintage Twin - $$
Levis Lot 1 - $$$
3x1 - $$$$
SelvageWork - $$$$
SUSTAINABILITY • Reduce Footprint
• Value Proposition
• Unique Pieces
Revice - $$
RE/DONE - $$$
Vetements + Levi’s - $$$
interactive RETAIL
Cailler Chocolate VR
Interactive
Displays
(PERCH)
Personalized Tutorials
(MemoMi Smart Mirror)
Vanessa Bruno
Embroidery Bar
Charlotte Tilbury
Shop by Look
& use cases STRATEGIC analysis
Efficient
Comp Shopping
Pricing
Analysis Plan Marketing
Calendar
Optimize
Product Flows
Enhance
SEO/SEM Influencer
Strategy
Analyze Trend
Curves Assortment
Architecture
RIGHT PRICE RIGHT TIME RIGHT PRODUCT increase sales maximize margin drive conversion
RIGHT MESSAGE brand voice & discovery
34
Price Optimization x Demand Signals: Senior Product Merchandiser, Luxury Department Store
10% lift in
SALES
35
Marketing Content Optimization x Demand Signals: Social Media Manager, National Department Store
INCREASE
30%
marketing engagement
by
CONSUMER centric retailing
ASSORTMENT PLANNING
PRODUCT PRICING
IN-SEASON MANAGEMENT
PRODUCT DESIGN
MARKETING CALENDAR .
HINDSIGHTING .
save 20 days
per year
10% sales lift
30%
engagement
increase
correct product
investment
capitalize on
trends
improve GM%
& development & costing
& testing
& fast chase & campaign strategy .
& line planning .
= increased profitability
FEB 2017
denim
intelligence report lifestyle trends
2017
beauty report
2016
fashion week
recaps
MARCH 2017
BRANDPUSLSE (CATEGORY TEMPLATES)
Denim – Fast Fashion Brands*
Denim – Specialty Brands**
Denim – Premium Brands***
Denim – Luxury Brands****
Denim –Value & Off Price Retailers*****
TRENDPULSE (CATEGORY TEMPLATES)
Denim and Jeans – Silhouette (women's)
Denim and Jeans – Wash & Embellishment (women's)
Men's - Denim: Wash & Fabric
Men's - Denim: Silhouette
APPENDIX
PLATFORM RESOURCES
MARRYING THE ART & SCIENCE OF
RETAIL
Karen Moon
Co-Founder & CEO
79 Madison Avenue, New York
www.trendalytics.co
C O N TA C T U S : H E L L O @ T R E N D A LY I C S . C O