Denin Dialogue u Del 11-10 Totten Water in an Uncertain Climate Future

8/6/2019 Denin Dialogue u Del 11-10 Totten Water in an Uncertain Climate Future

1/87

Water in an Uncertain ClimateFuture

Michael Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Water and GreenTechnologies, Conservation International

Denin Dialogue SeriesDelaware Environmental Institute

November 30, 2010


2/87

2105005

2 to 3% Annual Averagegrowth Gross WorldProduct (GWP) in 21st

Century (~10 to 20x

todays GWP)

2105

$500 trillion GWP~$50,000 per cap# in poverty?

$50 trillion GWP~$7,500 per cap2+ billion inpoverty

$1,000 trillion GWP~$100,000 per cap# in poverty?


3/87

More absolute poor than any timein human history

[alongside more wealth than ever]

M

asspo

ver

ty


4/87

C

lima

te

wierding

Where we will be by 2100 900ppm

Partsp

erMillionCO2

Past planetary mass extinctionstriggered by high CO2 >550ppm


5/87

O

cea

ns

Acidify

ing

55 million years since oceans as acidicbusiness-as-usual emissions growththreaten collapse of marine life food web

Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL

40% decline in phytoplankton base of

the marine food web -- past 50 years


6/87

Species

extinction

Species extinction by humans1000x natural background rate


7/87Ecological Footprint


8/87

Map source: Jelks, H. J., S. J.

Walsh, N. M. Burkhead, S.

Contreras-Balderas, E. Daz-

Pardo, D. A. Hendrickson, J.

Lyons, N. E. Mandrak, F.

McCormick, J. S. Nelson, S. P.

Platania, B. A. Porter, C. B.

Renaud, J. J. Schmitter-Soto, E.

B. Taylor, and M. L. Warren, Jr.

2008. Conservation status of

imperiled North American

freshwater and diadromousfishes. Fisheries 33(8): 37240

Decline of North American Freshwater Fishes

Fish species 8times morethreatened

thanmammals orbirds in the

USA


9/87

37% Freshwater Fish Species Threatened

%

Sources: IUCN Red List 2009 for species threatened, andIUCN 2000 for map


10/87

2 billion people lack safe water

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf


11/87

Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking

dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach

adulthood stunted for good.

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue

Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf


12/87

4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust

physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of

dollars in lost income to the poor



13/87

Incident Human Water Security Threat

Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river

biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010


14/87

Incident Biodiversity Threat

Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010


15/87

Threat to Human Water Security & Biodiversity

Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010


16/87

Intensive farmingand grazingpractices and

deforestation inChina have led tomore frequent duststorms, like this

one in 2001 thatswept aerosolparticles into theGreat Lakes regionof the US, and even

left a sprinkling inthe Alps mountains

in Europe.


17/87

Increased dust in the Sahel, which can spread far out to sea (inset), has been linked toagriculture. Credit: J. Leyrer/NIOZ (photo); NASA (inset)


18/87

2 C increase

4 C increase

Direction of change in water run-off by 2060

Source: Fai Fung, Ana Lopez and Mark New. 2010. Water availability in +2C and +4C worlds References, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011

369, 99-116

drier areas dry further &

wetter areas become wetter


19/87

Seasonal changes Mean Annual Run-off 2060

Source: Fai Fung, Ana Lopez and Mark New. 2010. Water availability in +2C and +4C worlds References, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011

369, 99-116

Nile Ganges Murray Darling

Danube Mississippi Amazon

+2 C

+4 C

+2 Cincreasingto +4 C by

2100


20/87

Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity at +4C

William Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture, Impacts by Country 2007.


21/87

Interactions may result in societal impacts that aregreater than the sum of individual sectoral impacts


22/87


23/87

Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: TheBenefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/

Main difference between projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion

Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 Trajectory

GtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2and >850 ppm

Based on 6 Celsius averageglobal temperature rise due to

greater climate sensitivity

Need to reverse CO2 emissions by 2015and become negative CO2by 2050 toachieve


24/87

Where the world needs to go:energy-related CO2 emissions per capita

Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on Americas Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.

Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.

>$/GDP/cap


25/87

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading

"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with

the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities,

and significant costs involved in counteringterrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or

neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly

harboring weapons of mass destruction

MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINALVersion July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change

environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends

approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost

of a clean environment."

a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining

the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:

Martin Weitzman
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdfhttp://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf


26/87

Averting catastrophes byGreening the

Global Economy

Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3


27/87

Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing toodifferently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3knowledge relationships of knowledge

Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames

Natural system

Technical system

Social system

USA Water Chart 2004


28/87

USA Water Chart 2004

45% US water use

75% US water consumption

A t di i f t f th


29/87

A new water disinfector for the

developing worlds poor

Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for

disinfection

Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1

ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1m3)

Low cost: 4 disinfects 1 ton of water

Reliable, Mature components

Can treat unpressurized water

Rapid throughput: 12 seconds

Low maintenance: 4x per year

No overdose risk

Fail-safe

DESIGN CRITERIA

Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor

WaterHealth Intl deviceAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-

water%202008.pdf

WHIs Investment Cost Advantage vs
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf


30/87

WHIs Investment Cost Advantage vs.

Other Treatment Options


WaterHealth International


31/87


The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of

pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and

Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per

person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.




32/87

Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation ofour systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses ofoperating and maintaining the equipment and facility.

Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these micro-utilities, thus

creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunitiesfor local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified waterto outlying areas.

And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the userfees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.


Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue

Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf


33/87

Globally, nearly 70% of water withdrawals go toirrigated agriculture, yet conventional irrigationcan waste as much as 80% of the water.

Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies andartificially low water prices, often unconnected to

the amount of water used.

Drip irrigation systems for water intensive cropssuch as cotton can mean water savings of up to80% compared to conventional flood irrigationsystems, but these techniques are out of reach

for most small farmers.

Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% ofthe worlds irrigated area.

Soft Water PathMore productive, Less cost, Less damage

Gleick, Peter H., Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century, State of the

Planet Special, Science, Nov. 28, 2003 V. 302, pp.1524-28, www.pacinst.org/


34/87

The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annually

Immense Water Waste

WWF, Dam Right! Rivers at Risk, Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems, 2003


35/87

E W I i B fi


36/87

Energy/Water Integration Benefitsduring Drought Periods

Source: Andrew Belden, Priscilla Cole, Holly Conte et al. 2008. Integrated Policy and Planning for Water and Energy,Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Univ. of Delaware.

1200 100,000+


37/87

1 4 5 38

552 541

784

1022

0

200

400

600

800

1000

(relative to wind power=1)

Water consumption per kWh


38/87

Green PowerorMegadamus

negavitae?

Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions


39/87

Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions

Tucuru dam, Brazil

St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience50: 76675

Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with


40/87

Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with

Combined Cycle Natural Gas

Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the InternationalHydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004

DAMReservoir

Area(km2)

GeneratingCapacity

(MW)

km2/MWEmissions:Hydro

(MtCO2-eq/yr)

Emissions:CC Gas(MtCO2-eq/yr)

EmissionsRatio

Hydro/Gas

Tucuru 24330 4240 6 8.60 2.22 4

Curu-Una

72 40 2 0.15 0.02 7.5

Balbina 3150 250 13 6.91 0.12 58


41/87

The water requirements of energyderived from biomass are about 70 to400 times more than that of other energycarriers such as fossil fuels, wind, and

solar. More than 90% of the waterneeded is used in the production of thefeedstock.

What about Biofuels?

Source: Gerbens-Leenes, P.W., A. Hoekstra, Th. van der Meer. 2008. Water footprint of bio-energy and other primary

energy carriers. Value of Water Research Report Series No. 29. UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands..


42/87

Food Fuel Species


43/87

By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of

land required for agriculture.800 MILLION HA OF ADDITIONAL LAND FOR

MEDIUM GROWTH BIOFUEL SCENARIOS.

Intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich

habitats under constant threat.

Food, Fuel, Species

Tradeoffs?

Area to Power 100% of U S Onroad Vehicles?


44/87

Corn ethanol

Cellulosic ethanol

Wind-w/storageturbine spacing

Wind turbines

ground footprint

Solar-w/storage

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,

2007 htt ://www.stanford.edu/ rou /efmh/ acobson/E85vWindSol

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles?

Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in

plug-in electric driven vehicles, CAES or other storage technologies

A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere


45/87

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients 1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream

A power source delivered daily and locally everywhereworldwide, continuously for billions of years, never

failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatilityafflicting every energy and power source used in driving

economic activity


46/87

SUN FUSION PHOTONS


47/87


48/87


49/87

SunSlate Building-IntegratedPhotovoltaics (BIPV) commercial

building in Switzerland

Material

Replaced

Economic

MeasureBeijing Shanghai

PolishedStone

NPV ($)BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$18,5862.33

1

+$14,2372.14

1

Aluminum

NPV ($)BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$15,3731.89

2

+$11,0241.70

2

Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)

& Payback Periods (PBP) for Architectural BIPV(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing andShanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China , July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

China Economics of Commercial BIPVBuilding-Integrated Photovoltaics
http://www.udel.edu/ceep/http://www.udel.edu/ceep/


50/87

Reference costs of facade-cladding materialsBIPV is so economically attractive because itcaptures both energy savings and savings fromdisplacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Economics of Commercial BIPVhina Economics of Commercial BIPV

Municipal Solar Financing Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
http://www.nrel.gov/http://www.nrel.gov/


51/87

Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998 200821GW


52/87

MW

Compared to:

Wind power 121,000 MW

Nuclear power 350,000 MW

Hydro power 770,000 MW

Natural Gas power 1 million MW

Coal power 2 million MW

Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008

40% annual growth rate

Doubling


53/87

2069

Solar PV Growth @ 25% per year

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19

Year

Megawatts

2000 20692009 2021 2033 2045 2057


0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19

Year

Megawatts

2000 21092009 2029 2049 2069 2089

Equal to total world consumption in 2009

59TWby

2075

59

TWby

2119

What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century?



2109

2089


54/87

Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plugin Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University,

[email protected] , http://Solar.gwu.edu/

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
mailto:[email protected]://solar.gwu.edu/http://solar.gwu.edu/mailto:[email protected]


55/87

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters

Solar power beats thermal plants within their


56/87

Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis

p p

construction lead timeat zero carbon price

Federal Research & Development Funds
http://www.rmi.org/http://www.rmi.org/


57/87

1

2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 2

PV NUCLEAR

Billion $ 2008 constant

Civilian Nuclear Power

(1948 2009)

vs.

Solar Photovoltaics

(1975-2009)

$4.2

$85

Federal Research & Development Funds

GIS Mapping the Solar


58/87

Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.

GIS Mapping the SolarPotential of Urban Rooftops

100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS Achievable this Century

Solar smart poly-grids


59/87

Solar smart poly grids

Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energyprovided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream basedon real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with

administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions


60/87

Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map

algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank

expansion of solar panel locations.

Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from


61/87

New York

California

USA minus CA & NYPer CapitalElectricityConsumption 165 GWCoalPowerPlants

Californians have

net savings of$1,000 per family

[EPPs]

For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants

California 30 year proof of IRP value in promotinglower cost efficiency over new power plants orhydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.

California signed MOUs with Provinces in Chinato share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).


62/87

Achieving the 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal How Far Can We Reach with Energy Efficiency?, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner, California EnergyCommission, (916) 654-4930,[email protected] , http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020
mailto:[email protected]://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.htmlhttp://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.htmlmailto:[email protected]


63/87

Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings theincremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is $66-96 billion per year between 20102020 fordeveloping countries and $4860 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, orabout half the $258 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.

Breakdown by abatement type: 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry & agriculture)

6 Gt energy efficiency 4 Gt low carbon energy supply

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

Universal symbol for Efficiency


64/87

eta

SHRINKINGfootprints through Continuous innovation

Universal symbol for Efficiency

The best thingabout low-

hanging fruit

is that it keepsgrowing back.


65/87

Now use 1/2 global power50% efficiency savings achievable

90% cost savings

ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS


66/87

How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing

one dollar to make or save delivered electricity


67/87

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

one dollar to make or save delivered electricity

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind

cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

2 50

33

25

end-use

efficiency

2 47Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced


68/87

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind

cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

end-use

efficiency

32

23

1: 93 kg

CO2/$

2 pper dollar spent on electrical services


69/87


70/87


71/87


72/87

Michael Totten

l


73/87

THANK

YOU!

Conservation International

[email protected]


74/87


75/87

Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off

Mississippi River Delta


76/87

Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for

Biofuel Production through Algae SystemsYangtze River Pearl River


77/87


78/87

Small Land footprint

Only Wastewater as Feedstock

Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs


79/87


80/87

Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email:[email protected] ph: 202 633-0923

ATS

Nutrient Rich Water(Sewage, polluted river water)

Clean waterLower N P P, higher O2 + pH
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


81/87

CO2

ATS

Biodiesel

Fermenter(Clostridium butylicum

C. Pasteurianum, etc.)

C6H12O6 C4H9OH + CO2 +

Biobutanol

Ethanol

Acetone

Lactic Acid

Acetic Acid

Oil

ALGALBIOMASS

Solvent

Extraction

+ atmospheric CO2(or power plant stack gases)

Less CO2 in atmosphere

Transesterification

Organic

FertilizerSource: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email:[email protected] ph: 202 633-0923

Biofuel Production from Algal


82/87

Algaebutanol

biodiesel

Corn (ethanol)

Soy (biodiesel)

Estimated Biofuel Production(gallons per acre or ha per year)

1520

500

----

2000

----

100

+

Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923

[3,770 gal/ha/yr][5,000 gal/ha/yr]

[1,250 gal/ha/yr]

[250 gal/ha/yr]

Turf Scrubber Biomass(50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)

Figures of Merit95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains


83/87

Figures of Merit

Great Plains area

1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity

400,000 3MW wind turbines

Platform footprint

6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine

>6 mi2

Total WindFarm spacing area

37,500 mi2

Still available for farming

and prairie restoration

90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector

40% USA total GHG emissions Wind Farm Royalties Could Double


84/87

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains

= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Although agriculture controls about 70%of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4

to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the

greatest economic booms in American

history for Great Plains rural

communities, while also enabling one of

worlds largest restorations of native

prairie ecosystems

How?

farm/ranch income with 30x less land area

Wind Royalties Sustainable source of


85/87

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

govt. subsidy $0 $60

windpower royalty $200 $0

farm commodity revenues $50 $64

windpower farm non-wind farm

Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Rural Farm and Ranch IncomeCrop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits
http://www.nci.org/Thttp://www.nci.org/T


86/87


87/87

Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s

Documents

Denin Dialogue u Del 11-10 Totten Water in an Uncertain Climate Future