Denver Workforce

DevelopmentBoard

Meeting

April 12, 2019

Denver Metro Area

Industry and Occupation

Trends and Projections

Ryan Gedney

Senior Economist

Labor Market Information, CDLE April 12, 2019

Role of Labor Market Information office:

• Work contractually with U.S. Bureau of Labor

Statistics to produce official BLS labor market

estimates for Colorado and sub-state areas

• These estimates are comparable to every

geographic region across the U.S. and across time

• We produce a lot of data, but some of the most

popular are for: nonfarm payroll jobs;

unemployment rate; occupational wages and

employment; and industry wages and employment

• We also generate short (2yr) and long-term (10yr)

projections by industry and occupation for

Colorado and sub-state areas

Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth

Since 2010 (by Area)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Feb 2019, seasonally adjusted

Greeley

Fort Collins

Denver

Colorado

CO Springs

Boulder

GrandJunction

Pueblo

U.S.Non-Metro

CO

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Denver Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth Since

2010 (by Goods-Producing Industries)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Feb 2019, not seasonally adjusted

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mining &

Construction

All

Industries

Manufacturing

Denver Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth Since

2010 (by Service-Providing Industries)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Feb 2019, not seasonally adjusted

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Leisure &

Hospitality

Information

All

Industries

Trade,

Transp.,

& Utilities

Prof. & Bus.

Services

Govt.

Edu. &

Health

Services

Financial

Activities

Other

Services

Largest Projected Employment Gains by

Industry Sector and Substate Area (2017 - 2027)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

Area Industry SectorProjected

Employment Change

Boulder Prof., Scientific, & Technical Services 7,500 (24% of total)

Colorado Springs Health Care & Social Assistance 14,700 (25%)

Denver Health Care & Social Assistance 64,200 (20%)

Fort Collins Health Care & Social Assistance 7,300 (19%)

Grand Junction Health Care & Social Assistance 2,200 (22%)

Greeley Construction 5,200 (17%)

Pueblo Health Care & Social Assistance 2,300 (29%)

Eastern & Southern CO Health Care & Social Assistance 1,400 (23%)

Northwest CO Health Care & Social Assistance 4,100 (16%)

Southwest CO Health Care & Social Assistance 3,900 (23%)

Largest Projected Employment Gains by

Industry Sector for Denver (2017 - 2027)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

Industry SectorProjected

Employment Change

Share of Total

Projected Change

Total, All Industries 323,800 N/A

Health Care & Social Assistance 64,200 20%

Prof., Scientific, & Technical Services 41,900 13%

Construction 35,500 11%

Accommodation & Food Services 31,900 10%

Educational Services 21,300 7%

Retail Trade 18,600 6%

Admin, Support, Waste Mgmt. Services 14,700 5%

Finance & Insurance 14,200 4%

Transportation & Warehousing 13,500 4%

Fastest Projected Annual Average Growth by

Denver Industry Subsector (2017 - 2027)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

2.7%

2.8%

3.0%

3.1%

3.1%

3.3%

3.3%

3.5%

3.5%

3.8%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Warehousing and Storage

Hospitals

Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction

Construction of Buildings

Specialty Trade Contractors

Ambulatory Health Care Services

Social Assistance

Couriers and Messengers

Components of Projected Annual

Openings for OccupationsLMI projected annual openings by occupation can be broken into

three parts:

1. Openings due to growth within industries occupations are

concentrated

2. Openings due to transfers between occupations, as workers

explore possible career choices – more common for younger cohorts

3. Openings due to exits out of the labor force, mainly due to

retirements – more common for older cohorts

Transfers and exits can combine to represent openings due to replacement needs

Denver – Total # of

Openings (2017-2027)

Openings Due

to Growth

Openings Due

to Transfers

Openings Due

To Exits

2,174,000

(217,400/year)

323,800

(32,380/year)

1,074,900

(107,490/year)

775,500

(77,550/year)

Share of Total Projected

Openings =>15% 49% 36%

For more information on projections methodology, go to: www.bls.gov/emp/documentation/separations-faqs.htm

Largest Projected Annual Openings by Detailed

Occupation for Denver (2017 - 2027)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term Occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

Occupational TitleAnnual

Openings

Share of Openings Due

to Replacement Needs

Share of Total

Openings

Total, All Occupations 217,400 85% N/A

Combined Food Prep. & Serving

Workers, Including Fast Food8,300 87% 3.8%

Retail Salespersons 7,500 92% 3.4%

Waiters and Waitresses 6,700 91% 3.1%

Cashiers 6,200 96% 2.9%

Customer Services Reps 4,200 90% 1.9%

Laborers & Freight, Stock, and

Material Movers, Hand3,900 87% 1.8%

Janitors 3,600 88% 1.7%

Business Operations Specialists,

All Other3,400 83% 1.6%

Office Clerks, General 3,400 92% 1.6%

Fastest Projected Growth by Detailed

Occupation* for Denver (2017 - 2027)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term Occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

Occupational TitleAnnual

Growth Rate

Annual

Openings

Share of Openings Due

to Replacement Needs

Home Health Aides 4.9% 1,980 70%

Personal Care Aides 4.5% 3,100 77%

Massage Therapists 4.0% 1,100 73%

Plumbers, Pipefitters, Steamfitters 3.7% 820 74%

Medical Assistants 3.6% 930 75%

HVAC Mechanics & Installers 3.6% 540 73%

Software Developers, Applications 3.5% 1,890 65%

Health Teachers, Postsecondary 3.4% 640 69%

Nonfarm Animal Caretakers 3.4% 780 82%

Supervisors of Construction 3.2% 1,370 75%

Electricians 3.2% 1,970 78%

Registered Nurses 3.1% 2,580 62%

*Occupations with at least 500 projected annual openings

Summary• Since 2010, Denver has added jobs at a faster rate than the

State and nearly twice as fast as the U.S.

• Primary industry drivers for Denver’s job growth have

been Construction; Health Services; Leisure & Hospitality;

and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

• We expect those industries to continue to drive Denver’s

job growth over the long-term horizon

• The vast majority (85%) of Denver job openings will be due

to occupational exits and transfers

• However, the most in-demand jobs [measured by openings

due to growth] will be concentrated in high-growth

industries, primarily construction (growing population

needs) and healthcare (aging population needs)

Contact

Information• Email: ryan.gedney@state.co.us

• Work Phone: 303-318-8858

• LMI Website: www.colmigateway.com

Ryan Gedney

Senior Economist

Labor Market Information, CDLE