Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science ...indianstrategicknowledgeonline.com/web/DisruptiveInnovations.pdf · Disruptive innovations – background, definitions

Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science

DISRUPTIVE INNOVATIONS

Barry L. Shoop, Ph.D., P.E. Colonel, U.S. Army

Professor of Electrical Engineering

Deputy Head of the Department


United States Military Academy

West Point, New York

TechNet Land Forces — East 2012

"Cyberspace Operations – Prevent, Shape, Win“

Engagement Theater

16 August 2012


Outline

Background and overview

Introduction to West Point course: XE492 Disruptive

Innovations

Disruptive innovations – background, definitions and

extensions from commercial sector to defense

applications

Examples of commercial technology that could be

disruptive in defense applications

Summary and observations


Expectation Management

Introduce the concept of disruptive commercial technology

and innovation and the implications to defense

applications

Not intended to be a lecture but instead a dialog

Desired outcome is for you to think more broadly about

commercial technologies and

the implications to defense

applications


Genesis

• 2006 – 2007 as Chief Scientist for JIEDDO, witnessed a lack of Army officer’s understanding of commercial technology and its impact on the warfighter

• Summer of 2008 inquiry by Dr. Larry Schuette, Director of Innovation, Office of Naval Research

• First course offering: Academic Year 2009

• Initial funding Provided by the Office of Naval Research – $100,000 through September 2012

• 2011 funding supplemented by DARPA – $20,000 in 2011

• 37 students to-date: – 8 in 2009

– 8 in 2010

– 14 in 2011

– 7 in 2012

http://www.onr.navy.mil/default.asp


Pedagogical Construct

• SOCRATIC DIALOG – A dialectic method of inquiry that uses cross-

examination of an individual’s claims in order to reveal

contradictions or internal inconsistencies.

– Socratic questioning is at the heart of critical thinking.

– Challenges accuracy and completeness of thinking

and deepens individual insights and understanding.

– strengthens the student’s skills at formulating a logical

argument and their ability to effectively engage in a

rational, oral debate.

• THE THAYER METHOD – Thayer’s educational philosophy demanded that every

cadet be responsible for his own learning.

– Small class size, self-study and daily recitation are

mutually supportive of the Socratic method.


West Point Course

• UPPER-DIVISION INTERDISCIPLINARY COURSE – XE492

– Encourages disciplinary diversity

• COURSE CONSTRUCT

– Four course texts

• The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clayton M. Christensen

• The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Thomas S. Kuhn

• The Discoverers, Daniel J. Boorstin

• The Two Cultures, C. P. Snow

– Continuous survey of commercial technology horizon

– Class meetings focused on

• Discussion of text readings

• Discussion of commercial technologies

– Interviews with forward thinking technologists

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Structure-of-scientific-revolutions-3rd-ed-pb.jpg

http://books.google.com/books?id=OyHm4sc6IPoC&printsec=frontcover&dq=The+Two+Cultures&source=gbs_summary_s&cad=0

http://books.google.com/books?id=SIexi_qgq2gC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Innovator's+Dilemma&source=gbs_summary_s&cad=0

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/images/0394726251/ref=dp_image_0?ie=UTF8&n=283155&s=books


Outcomes

• PROVIDES A TREMENDOUS EDUCATIONAL EXPERIENCE. – Opportunity for undergraduate students to raise their heads a bit and consider

the potential implications.

– Unique opportunity to engage forward thinking technology leaders.

• DEVELOPED A SMALL CADRE OF FORWARD THINKING JUNIOR

OFFICERS. – Developed the skills necessary to think about the technological implications of

new technology.

• PROVIDES A BLUEPRINT FOR AN UNDERGRADUATE COURSE

IN INNOVATION. – Numerous universities have requested the course syllabus and philosophy.


Disruption & Innovation

• CONTEXT OF INNOVATION IS MUCH BROADER THAN TECHNOLOGY.

– “Innovation” is currently oversubscribed.

• Many, many, many articles and books in the literature.

• Most consider from a pure technology or business perspective.

– Technology is clearly at the core.

– Business practices are important.

– Human dimension is critical for adoption.

• Social, political, and religious influences.

– History is replete with examples of innovations

that were not adopted because of social and

religious influences.

Technology

Religious

Political

Social


The Innovator’s Dilemma

• THE INNOVATOR’S DILEMMA

– Clayton M. Christensen – Harvard Business School

– 1995 Article “Disrupting Technologies: Catching the Wave”

– Introduced the term “disruptive technology”

• Innovations that improve a product or service in ways that the market

does not expect, typically by being lower priced or designed for a different

set of consumers

http://books.google.com/books?id=SIexi_qgq2gC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Innovator's+Dilemma&source=gbs_summary_s&cad=0

http://www.amazon.com/gp/redirect.html?ie=UTF8&location=http://www.amazon.com/Disrupting-Class-Disruptive-Innovation-Change/dp/0071592067?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228947632&sr=1-1&tag=claytonchrist-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325


The Innovator’s Dilemma


The Dilemma

• “One of the most consistent patterns in business is the failure of leading companies to stay at the top of their industries when technologies or markets change.”

• “Why is it that companies like these invest aggressively – and successfully – in the technologies necessary to retain their current customers but then fail to make certain other technological investments that customers of the future will demand? Undoubtedly, bureaucracy, arrogance, tired executive blood, poor planning, and short-term investment horizons have all played a role. But a more fundamental reason lies at the heart of the paradox: leading companies succumb to one of the most popular, and valuable, management dogmas. They stay close to their customers.”

“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Henry Ford


Definitions

Sustaining technologies – tend to maintain a rate of improvement; that is, they

give customers something more or better in the attributes they already value

Disruptive technologies – introduce a very different value proposition, generally underperform established products in mainstream markets, but have other features that niche market customers value. They are typically cheaper, simpler, smaller, and frequently more convenient to use.

High-Density Disk Drives Portable Disk Drives

Digital Photography Traditional Photography

Catalog Retailing Clothing Sales Stores

Midwives Maternity Doctors

Distance Learning Traditional Campus-Based Education

Digital Textbooks Traditional Hardcopy Textbooks


Disruptive Technology

(Innovation)

1. Initially underperforms the dominant one along the dimensions mainstream customers in major markets have historically valued.

2. Has other features a few fringe (and generally new) customers value. Products based on disruptive technologies are typically (1) cheaper, (2) simpler, (3) smaller, or (4) more convenient than those established on the dominant technology.

3. Profitable customers generally do not want and initially cannot use products based on disruptive technologies. So disruptive technologies are first commercialized in emerging or niche markets. Incumbents conclude that investing in disruptive technologies is not a rational financial decision for them.

4. The new disruptive technology steadily improves in performance until it meets the standards of performance demanded by the mainstream market.

5. At that point, the disruptive technology displaces the dominant one and the new entrant displaces the dominant incumbent(s) in the mainstream market.


History of Disruptive

Technologies

Fire

6000

Wheel

4500

Alphabet

2300

Printing

Press

1400

1700

Oil

1800

1900

Television

1940

Computer

1960

Internet

1980

Biotechnology

2004

Robotics

2010

Nanotechnology

2020

BC AD

Electricity

Automobile

Disruptive Technologies that Fundamentally Changed the Planet

Courtesy of David Barrett


The 10 Most Disruptive Technology Combinations

10. DVRs + Entertainment on Demand

9. YouTube + Cheap Digital Cameras and Camcorders

8. Open Source + Web Tools

7. MP3 + Napster

6. Blogs + Google Ads

5. Cheap Storage + Portable Memory

4. Cloud Computing + Always-On Devices

3. Broadband + Wireless Networks

2. The Web + The Graphical Browser

1. Cell Phones + Wireless Internet Access

http://www.pcworld.com/article/143474-10/the_10_most_disruptive_technology_combinations.html

PC World Disruptions - 2008


Structure of Scientific Revolutions

• THE STRUCTURE OF SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTIONS

– Thomas S. Kuhn – U.C. Berkeley – Philosophy & History

– Science does not progress in a linear accumulation of

knowledge but undergoes periodic revolutions – paradigm shifts

• Prescience – lacks a central paradigm

• Normal science – puzzle-solving – failure of results to conform – crisis

• Revolutionary science

– Small and large scientific revolutions

– Introduces the concept that scientific knowledge is dependent on the culture and

historical circumstances of groups of scientists rather than on their adherence to a

specific, definable method

– Depicts science as a human process – mistake-prone, competitive, argumentative,

with personalities and propensities of the researchers themselves playing a

significant role in the rate, if not the end results, of progress

The Structure of Scientific Revolutions probably represents some the best thinking on how transformation occurs, who drives it, why it is resisted, and what it really asks of people.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Structure-of-scientific-revolutions-3rd-ed-pb.jpg


The Discoverers

• THE DISCOVERERS

– Daniel J. Boorstin – American historian, professor, attorney, and

writer. He was appointed twelfth Librarian of the United States

Congress from 1975 until 1987

– The history of human discovery

• Chronicles several inventions – the clock, the compass, the telescope

and microscope, the printing press and movable type

• Why didn’t the Chinese “discover” Europe or America?

– Traces inventions and their acceptance or rejection based on

culture, society, religion

During the period when Prince Henry the Navigator was just beginning to explore the West coast of Africa, the Chinese had already built massive flotillas consisting of as many as 317 ships and had advanced the state-of-the-art of shipbuilding well beyond that elsewhere in the world. Bulkheads which divided the ship’s hold into compartments to prevent flooding and fires and were first integrated by the Chinese are believed to have been inspired by the septa, the transverse membranes in bamboo. “The Chinese had long since developed their own version of the oikoumeme, the habitable world, which put them at the center. They were their own Jerusalem. Since the Ming emperors were the Sons of Heaven, they were by definition supreme rulers and superiors of all other people on earth.” While the Chinese developed the technological innovations necessary to position them as a seafaring nation, capable of exploration and expansion, their culture and beliefs prevented adoption and further development.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/images/0394726251/ref=dp_image_0?ie=UTF8&n=283155&s=books

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Daniel_Boorstin.jpg


The Two Cultures

• THE TWO CULTURES

– Charles Percy Snow – C. P. Snow - an English physicist and novelist

– 1956 article

• “The Two Cultures”

– 1959 Cambridge University Rede Lecture

• “The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution”

– Claim about academic disciplines

• Split between the arts and humanities and the sciences

• Questions educational structure, social attitudes, and government policy-making

“the intellectual life of the whole of western society is increasingly being split into two polar groups, … “Literary intellectuals at one pole – at the other scientists. Between the two a gulf of mutual incomprehension – sometimes (particularly among the young) hostility and dislike, but most of all lack of understanding” Snow argues that practitioners from the sciences and the humanities should build bridges to further the progress of human knowledge and to benefit society.

http://books.google.com/books?id=OyHm4sc6IPoC&printsec=frontcover&dq=The+Two+Cultures&source=gbs_summary_s&cad=0


Agenda – 2009 ONR Workshop

• OVERVIEW OF PROJECT AND COURSE

• INDIVIDUAL PRESENTATIONS AND DISCUSSIONS – CDT Rick Miles: Radio Frequency Identification

– CDT Mike Platek: Digital Cameras, Satellites, and Nanotechnology

– CDT Jacob Weber: Kapton® Polyimide

– CDT Steven Whitham: Rapid Prototyping and 3-D Printers

– CDT Sarah Noreen: The iPhone

– CDT Monte Hoover: Distributed High Performance Computing

– CDT Roy Ragsdale: netBooks, Metadata and Feeds, Autonomous Robotics

– CDT Hang Li: Visualization and Virtualization

• WRAP-UP – Outcomes

– Thoughts on Red-Teaming

– Final Thoughts

RFID

Explosive Detection

Distributed Computing Virtualization & Visualization

NetBook

iPhone

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EPC-RFID-TAG.svg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Poly-oxydiphenylene-pyromellitimide.png


Disruptive Commercial Technology:

The iPhone

SARAH NOREEN, USMA CLASS OF 2009

The iPhone as a Disruption


The Apple iPhone

• 3G NETWORK (4G COMING)

• CELLULAR AND WIRELESS

– UMTS/HSDPA (850, 1900, 2100

MHz)

– GSM/EDGE (850, 900, 1800, 1900

MHz)

– WiFi (IEEE 802.11b/g)

– Bluetooth 1.0 + EDR

• VIDEO AND AUDIO PLAYBACK

• ASSISTED GPS†

• HIGH-RESOLUTION CAMERA

– 2 megapixels

– Photo geotagging

– iPhone integration

• SENSORS

– Accelerometer

– Proximity sensor

– Ambient light sensor http://www.apple.com/iphone/specs.html


iPhone Specifications

• PROCESSOR

– 620 MHz CPU

• ARM1176JZF chip with TrustZone

• Clock speed up to 700MHz

• ARM Intelligent Energy Manager

• 16K / 16K cache

• Vector floating point coprocessor

• SIMD, high performance integer CPU (8-stage pipeline, 675 Dhrystone, 2.1

MIPS)

• 0.45 mW/MHz power draw (with cache)

• MAC OS X OPERATING SYSTEM

http://www.arm.com/products/CPUs/ARM1176.html


Linux

• OPEN SOURCE OPERATING SYSTEM – Based on Unix

• ADVANTAGES: – No Cost

– Maximize use of hardware and software

• USE LINUX TO: – Create new applications

– To edit existing applications

http://www.linux.org/


Amigo Mapper Application

• INDICATES YOUR POSITION

RELATIVE TO YOUR FRIENDS

• CONNECT WITH UP TO SIX

FRIENDS

• ABLE TO MONITOR ON-LINE

• CONSIDER THE

POSSIBILITIES


iPhone vs. Blue Force Tracker

iPhone

• Inexpensive

• 3G Network allows for

connectivity in buildings

• Located on individual

Blue Force Tracker

• More secure

• More accurate

• Located on vehicle


Webcam Application

• VIEW UP TO FOUR WEB CAMERAS SIMULTANEOUSLY

• CREATE YOUR NETWORK OF CAMERAS OR VIEW NETWORK CAMERAS ALREADY IN PLACE – Connect Web Camera to

desktop

– Remotely view and record video stream

– Detect motion

– Connect to Network Camera

• PROVIDES INEXPENSIVE SURVEILLANCE CAPABILITIES


Applications

• NIGHT CAMERA – makes low-light pictures clear.

• REMOTE – remote control of music on computer, or Apple TV from iPod

touch or iPhone.

• ROUTESY – Real-time prediction data on train and bus schedules in San

Francisco.

• Google Earth

• CITY TRANSIT – Live service advisories for New York

City MTA Subway.

• EYE-PHONE – Image Recognition

• LISTEN – Music recognition

• ADVERTISING

•

More than 15,000 currently available.


High-Performance Computing

Distributed Computing

– Fastest Virtual Supercomputers – BOINC – 1.3 PFLOPS as of February 9, 2009 – Folding@Home – 8.7 PFLOPS, as of March 24, 2009

Cluster Computing

– Fastest Commercial Supercomputer – Los Alamos National Lab’s “Roadrunner” – 1.0 PFLOP

– PS3 cluster – Single-chip multiprocessor – 9 processors

– 1 PowerPC – 8 vector processors

GPU Computing

– Graphical Processing Unit – Tesla – 240 cores – Fermi – 512 cores

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/66/Abeta-PS3.png


Disruptive Supercomputing

University of Massachusetts Dartmouth 8 Sony Playstation 3s 1.2 TFLOPS

SUMMER ONR INTERNSHIP

PROJECTS – Grid Computing – PS3 Supercomputer Cluster – 3D Printing


PROTOTYPE DESIGN HIGHLIGHTS

Low cost off the shelf construction

Built with open source software

Low-Power, Low-Profile, Lightweight

Mobile operation outdoors and indoors

Matches emerging commercial capabilities but also automates photo uploads as geo-rectified, time-stamped map overlay images

Compatible with all Army system formats

Problem Soldiers need the most accurate imagery attainable to better plan and more safely execute dangerous missions.

Challenge Build a low-cost, low-power, light-weight system that automatically captures, processes, and overlays immersive eye level imagery without burdening soldiers

SOLDIER PROBLEM / CHALLENGE

PROJECTED FINAL CAPABILITIES

• 360 degree panoramas

• Geo-rectified imagery on digital maps

• Fully automated; no user input required

• Fully mobile

• Inter-compatible across all Army systems

Full Panoramic Pan and Zoom

All photos (single or stitched as one) automatically time-stamped geo-rectified, and readily overlaid to any digital map

Mounted Dismounted

Possible FBCB2 Interface

MIT Soldier Design Competition – Open Challenge – CDT Roy Ragsdale

PhotoTrail


The Sequel – PhotoTrail

• $300 DO IT YOURSELF GOOGLE STREET VIEW CAMERA

SYSTEM. – CDT Roy Ragsdale.

– MIT Soldier Design Competition Lockheed Martin Award.

• SYSTEM. – 8 Microsoft LifeCam NX-6000 cameras

– 2 D-Link USB hubs

– GlobalSat BU-353 GPS receiver

– Laptop running Ubuntu Linux

A Python script captures eight

12801024 pixel JPEG files that

are then stitched together and

uploaded to Google Earth


The Sequel 2 – HeadPoint


Thoughts on Disruptions

• DOWNLOADABLE FUNCTIONALITY. – In this instance, consider that the canonical technology S-curve morphs from being a smooth

curve to being a step function.

– Best example is software defined or cognitive radio.

• LEAPFROGGING TECHNOLOGY. DEVELOPING AND REBUILDING COUNTRIES

LEAPFROG TO NEW, MORE CAPABLE TECHNOLOGIES AS DRIVERS FOR

DEVELOPMENT. – The cellular infrastructure in a country like Iraq will go directly to 3G and bypass all previous

versions – giving the country and those who operate there a tremendous advantage.

• PERSISTENT SURVEILLANCE OF THE TECHNOLOGY HORIZON. – At least within certain technology areas – consumer electronics.

Time or Engineering Effort

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Time or Engineering Effort

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Final Thoughts

• WHAT IS THE NEXT DISRUPTIVE COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGY?

• WHAT IS THE MOST EFFECTIVE APPROACH TO IDENTIFYING DISRUPTIVE

TECHNOLOGIES? – Red-force … red-teaming efforts

– Blue-force

• WHO IS THE MILITARY EQUIVALENT OF THE CUSTOMER? – How do we develop blue-force disruptive technologies within the defense enterprise?

– JUON and UON

Documents

Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science ...indianstrategicknowledgeonline.com/web/DisruptiveInnovations.pdf · Disruptive innovations – background, definitions