DESERT LOCUST TECHNICAL SERIES · Courshee, R.J. 1965. Chemical control – technical studies. In Final report of the operational research team of the United Nations Special Fund

PLANT PRODUCTION AND PROTECTION DIVISION

LOCUSTS AND OTHER MIGRATORY PESTS GROUP No. AGP/DL/TS/35

DESERT LOCUST TECHNICAL SERIES

Preparedness to prevent Desert Locust plagues in the Central Region

an historical review

Part 2. Appendices

i

PREPAREDNESS TO PREVENT DESERT LOCUST PLAGUES

IN THE CENTRAL REGION, AN HISTORICAL REVIEW

Part 2. Appendices

J I Magor1, P Ceccato

2, H M Dobson

1, J Pender

3 and L Ritchie

4

1 Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Central Avenue, Chatham Maritime, Kent, ME4 4TB, UK

2 International Research Institute for Climatic Prediction The Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA

3 7 Beverley Close, Rainham, Gillingham, Kent ME8 9HG, UK 4 The Old Cottage, Hollingbourne, Kent ME17 1UJ, UK

Prepared for EMPRES Central Region 2005

Revised for publication 2007

ii

This review was commissioned by the FAO EMPRES Central Region Programme.

The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed, however, are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to those of the funding agency.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

The mention or omission of specific companies, their products or brand names does not imply any endorsement or judgement by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

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All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the copyright holders. Applications for such permission should be addressed to the Chief, Electronic Publishing Policy and Support Branch, Communication Division, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy or by e-mail to [email protected]

© FAO 2007

iii

CONTENTS

Appendix 1. References

Appendix 2. Figures

1. Grid squares infested with hopper bands 1930-1964 (grey) and 1965-1999 (black)

indicating results of plague prevention in the recession area from 1965

2. Territories reporting swarms in plagues & recessions 1860-2006 (after Waloff 1976)

3. Desert Locust, maximum invasion area (shaded), known and suspected outbreak

areas (black) (after Uvarov, 1951)

4. Percentage variation in annual rainfall from the 1920-1990 mean

5. Plague prevention strategy and tactics

6a. A sequence of Desert Locust breeding (after Bennett, 1975, 1976)

6b. Approximate size (area and numbers) of population types in each generation and

areas treated during the breeding sequence (after Bennett, 1975, 1976)

7. High density populations reported 1965-1969 (after Bennett, 1974, 1976)

8. Main Desert Locust populations 1976-1978 (after Roffey, 1982)

9. Desert Locust breeding and migration 1985-1989 (after Gruys, 1994)

10. Desert Locust upsurge 1992-1994 (after FAO, 1994c)

Appendix 3. Simulating pre-upsurge populations

Appendix 4. Acronyms and abbreviations

Appendix 6. Gazetteer of towns cited in chapter 2

1

APPENDIX 1. REFERENCES

2

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30°W

30°W

20°W

20°W

10°W

10°W

0°

0°

10°E

10°E

20°E

20°E

30°E

30°E

40°E

40°E

50°E

50°E

60°E

60°E

70°E

70°E

80°E

80°E

90°E

90°E

20°S 20°S

10°S 10°S

0° 0°

10°N 10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N 40°N

50°N 50°N

Figure 1. Grid squares infested with hopper bands 1930-1964 (grey) and 1965-1999 (black) indicating results of plague prevention in the recession area from 1965

Figure 2. Territories reporting swarms during plagues and recessions 1860-2006

(after Waloff, 1976)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1860 70 80 90 1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000

Years

Nu

mb

er o

f te

rrit

orie

s i

nfe

ste

d

plague

recession

inferred total

2

Figure 3. Desert Locust, maximum invasion area (shaded), known and suspected outbreak areas (black)

(after Uvarov, 1951

3

Recession Area Regimes

a North of Recession Area (Bir Moghrein to Egypt)

b Algerian Sahara

c Sahel north of 15oN and west of Oo

d Sahel south of 15oN and west of 0o

e Red Sea Coast, west

f Ethiopian highlands

g Horn of Africah Oman

i Arabian Peninsular (not shown)

j Iran, Pakistan winter rainfall

k Indo-Pakistan summer rainfall

Regime

Stations Years Yrs/Stationa 15 875 58.3

b 7 398 56.9

c 14 838 59.9

d 7 416 59.4

e 5 277 55.4

f 6 296 49.3

g 10 464 46.4

h 2 92 46

i 0 0 0

j 9 328 36.4

k 12 444 37

Figure 4. Percentage variation in annual rainfall

from mean, 1920-1990

----------- Contributing -----------

-100

-50

0

50

100

1920

1923

1926

1929

1932 35

1938

1941

1944

1947 50

1953

1956

1959

1962 65

1968

1971

1974

1977 80

1983

1986

1989

Year

a

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1920

1923

1926

1929

1932 35

1938

1941

1944

1947 50

1953

1956

1959

1962 65

1968

1971

1974

1977 80

1983

1986

1989

Year

b

-100

-50

0

50

100

1920

1923

1926

1929

1932 35

1938

1941

1944

1947 50

1953

1956

1959

1962 65

1968

1971

1974

1977 80

1983

1986

1989

Year

c

c

zoom function

-40-30-20-10

010203040

1920

1923

1926

1929

1932 35

1938

1941

1944

1947 50

1953

1956

1959

1962 65

1968

1971

1974

1977 80

1983

1986

1989

Year

d

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1920

1923

1926

1929

1932 35

1938

1941

1944

1947 50

1953

1956

1959

1962 65

1968

1971

1974

1977 80

1983

1986

1989

Year

e

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936 40

1944

1948

1952

1956 60

1964

1968

1972

1976 80

1984

1988

Year

f

-100

-50

0

50

100

1920 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Year

g

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Year

h

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936 40

1944

1948

1952

1956 60

1964

1968

1972

1976 80

1984

1988

Year

j

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1920 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Year

k

4

Locusts not in outbreaks, upsurges

or plagues remain

solitary, scattered or in groups within the recession area and

migrate between summer, winter and

spring breeding areas

Outbreak (local rain and gregarization)

Plague declines

Plague peaks

Plague spreads

Plague onset

Outbreaks

(widespread, noteworthy rains cause gregarization in may areas)

Upsurge sequences (widespread rains in successive

complementary breeding areas cause increases in locust numbers, density and

gregarization)

Plague suppression strategy

Locusts in

plagues occur as bands

and swarms, which breed where

summer, winter and spring rains

fall in both the recession and the invasion areas

of at least one Region

Upsurge

elimination

Upsurge

suppression

Upsurge

prevention

Fig. 5. Plague prevention strategy and tactics

Outbreak

prevention

6

Fig 6a. A sequence of Desert Locust breeding. The first generation, F0, bred in early 1967, and the F6

generation in late 1968. There is no evidence of breeding by F7 adults. Arrows indicate direction of

displacement between generations. Breeding areas are not drawn to scale (after Bennett, 1975, 1976).

0

100

200

300

400

500

F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7

Generation

Siz

e o

f in

fes

ted

an

d t

re

ate

d a

re

as

( x1

00

km

2)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Lo

cu

st

nu

mb

ers

(x

10

9)

Not all g regarious

Not all g regarious, cont ro l

Bands

Bands, cont ro l

Swarms

Swarms, contro l

Number o f locusts

Fig. 6b. Approximate size (area and numbers) of population types in each generation and

areas treated during the breeding sequence (after Bennett, 1975, 1976)

>100,000 km2

? ?

0,1, 2,3

3,4

5

66

7,8

6,77

kc

8

Copyright © 1994 FAO/ECLO

87

Fig. 10. Desert Locust upsurge, 1992-1994 (after FAO, 1994c)

0 200 400 600 80045°N

30°N15°N

EquatorStatute miles

35°

40°

35°

30°

25°

20°

15°

10°

15° 20° 25° 30° 35° 40° 45°

70°

40°

35°

30°

25°

15° 20° 25° 30° 40° 45° 50° 55° 60° 65° 75° 80° 85° 90°15° 10° 5° 0° 5° 10°

15° 10° 5° 0° 5° 10°

20°

15°

10°

10°

5°

0°

5°

summer 1993spring 1993

summer 1993

spring 1994

winter 1992

16

Major swarm movement

Minor swarm movement

Breeding

1 Generation

APPENDIX 3. SIMULATING PRE-UPSURGE POPULATIONS

Simulating pre-upsurge populations

1

SIMULATING PRE-UPSURGE POPULATIONS

J I Magor

Red Sea coastal populations, November 1992

1. In November 1992, survey teams found upsurge populations in Eritrea, the Sudan and Saudi Arabia. They

recorded groups and bands at coastal sites, from south of Port Sudan (19N/37E) to just north of Massawa

(15N/39E). In the Sudan, they reported bands of all instars and fledglings in November and reported six

sightings of small (1-5 km2), maturing and laying swarms. In Eritrea, hopper groups and bands were 3rd to 5th

instar in the first half of the month. From 19-21 November, they were late instar and teams reported 120 km2 of

thin density laying swarms (FAO Bulletin 171). In contrast, Saudi teams reported no hoppers in mid-November

when they found three, small (2 km2) swarms laying near Jeddah (23N/39E).

2. Did these large populations develop on the coastal plains of Eritrea and the Sudan and spread to Saudi

Arabia or did developments in other areas contribute to them? Earlier upsurges and normal seasonal activities

suggest that most of the population increase arose elsewhere. Normally, solitary locusts breed on the Red Sea

coasts during the winter and spring. Subsequently, as the dry season begins, most of the progeny migrate to a

summer breeding area in Arabia or in Africa. Small numbers, however, remain in valleys, where run-off from

summer rains in the highlands, keeps habitat suitable for breeding. The population increase noted on the coast

must have started with laying in October when invasions from summer breeding areas are expected. Subsequent

sections attempt to recreate preceding stages of the upsurge using the assumptions listed below to examine likely

population developments in areas that experienced heavier and more frequent rainfall than normal; a prerequisite

for population increases.

0

20°N

10°S

10°N

30°N

40°N

100°E 80°E 60°E 40°E 20°E 0°E 20°W

CENTRAL

REGION

SOUTH

WESTERN REGION CENTRAL

REGION

NORTH

EASTERN REGION

Invasion area

Recession area

Figure 1. Desert Locust Regions, invasion and recession areas

A method for simulating pre-upsurge populations

3. Did the swarms seen on the Red Sea coasts in November 1992 gregarize locally or arrive from spring and

summer breeding elsewhere? The term local was applied to locusts that were present in the previous generation

to distinguish them from newly arrived immigrants. Potential source areas were those that received heavy rains

earlier in 1992 and developments in them were simulated using the following assumptions on the initiation and

duration of life stages and of migration.

Appendix 3

2

• Recession and early upsurge populations are confined to the recession area (Fig. 1).

• During plagues, swarms may move throughout the whole invasion area (Fig. 1).

• Maturation and laying start among most solitary and gregarious populations within a week of

widespread rains falling. Exceptions are Northwest Africa, the Middle East, Iran and Pakistan

where low temperatures from October delay maturation until February and northern Somalia

between June and October where the causes of the delay are uncertain.

• The duration of breeding, from laying to fledging by solitary and gregarious populations can

be estimated adequately from the monthly maps of incubation and hopper development

periods constructed by Symmons et al. (1973). The development model (Reus and Symmons,

1992) gives very similar results.

• Fledglings emigrate to a complementary breeding area from two weeks after fledging if the

vegetation is beginning to dry out. Otherwise, they mature and lay in the same breeding area

from three weeks after fledging. This occurs either because rains initiating earlier breeding

were very heavy or because more fell while late instar hoppers were present. A tentative

relationship between rainfall and breeding is given in Table 1.

• Migration occurs more frequently within than between Desert Locust Regions (Fig. 1).

• The destination and duration of locusts migrating from seasonal breeding areas can be

inferred from those found in the Desert Locust Forecasting Manual (Pedgley, 1981a)

providing that appropriate winds existed on some days during the migration period.

4. Simulating the numbers and phase of the locusts involved is problematic. The association between heavy

and prolonged seasonal rains and outbreaks and upsurges is well documented but the exact relationships are

unknown. The lag observed between the onset of heavy rains and the appearance of gregarious populations

indicates that population increases preceding upsurges occur for two to three generations. Popov (1968) argued

plausibly that the 1966/67 upsurge in Oman began after high levels of multiplication over four generations. He

also suggested that initial upsurge generations were too sparse to be noticed but that the final process of

gregarization was rapid and occurred within a single generation. Reports in the period preceding upsurges

suggest that this is a general pattern.

5. Few examples of multiplication rates from egg laying to fledging exist and all are from the Red Sea and

Gulf of Aden coasts. Consequently, reconstructions are based on a series of best guesses about the area of

suitable habitat; the percentage of habitat infested; the density of initial populations and multiplication rates in

the seasons involved. Roffey and Magor (in FAO, 2003b) suggested tentative values between multiplication

rates and rain falling at the beginning of a breeding season and noted that rates vary between gregarization areas

owing to differences in habitat and natural enemies. These values, however, lack field validation.

6. Multiplication rates among non-swarming populations estimated during four studies were associated with

known rainfall values banded into the qualitative values used in locust reporting (Table 1). These show great

variability; the low values being during the decline of a contemporaneous plague (Stower and Greathead, 1969;

Roffey and Stower, 1983) and the high values to an upsurge in Somalia (Joyce 1962b) and another in Mali and

Niger (Roffey and Popov, 1968). Initial population levels were obtained from surveys or were assumed to have a

density of 100/ha. Best guess values in Table 4 cause numbers to fall or stay static in areas of light or moderate

rains and to rise where rains are heavy. Values for the second and third generations assume that no more rain

fell. If more rain fell, values are adjusted upwards according to the amount of rain recorded. The multiplication

rate was adjusted downward if rainfall was localized within a breeding area. Multiplication rates used in the

model are not only less variable but are higher for light and moderate rains and lie between the values suggested

by Roffey and Magor (in FAO, 2003b) when rainfall is heavy.

Table 1. Relationship between rainfall class values and multiplication rates

RAINFALL

Qualitative terms

(abbreviations)

Light

(L)

Moderate

(M)

Heavy

(h)

Heavy

(H)

Very heavy/floods

(VH/F) Value (mm) <20 20-50 50-100 100-250 >250

Field multiplication rates

Roffey & Magor, 2003 no data 0.01-0.5 0.01-10 0.3-16 no data

MODEL

Generation 1 0.5 1 2.5 5 8 Generation 2 emigrate 0.5 1 2.5 5

Generation 3 emigrate 0.5 1 2.5

7. Inferred seasonal populations are shown on a series of diagrams and sketch maps. The figures showing

inferred breeding sequences give the date at the beginning of each week assuming that week 1 started on 1


3

January. Rainfall is summarized on the top line of these diagrams. The abbreviations shown in Table 1 indicate

the approximate amounts of rain that fell. A question mark indicates the presence of potentially rain-bearing

clouds when there was no indication in the FAO Desert Locust Bulletins of the quantity of rain that fell. These

entries are interpreted as light rainfall. Dashed lines indicate the period within which rain fell.

Inferred breeding on the western Red Sea coasts, October 1991-November 1992

8. This section estimates if local breeding could account for the populations reported in November 1992.

Rainfall data for Red Sea coastal areas were sparse in 1991/92 and may be incomplete (Figs 2, 3 and 4). Winter

rains began in October 1991 (Fig. 2) and were not typical of those that precede an upsurge. Moderate rains fell in

the Tokar Delta in the first week of October and the associated clouds affected the coasts of southern Sudan and

Eritrea then and during the following week. Clouds were more widespread later in the month when they

extended to the Egyptian border. Rain and runoff occurred again in November at least in Tokar. The final report

of potentially rain-bearing clouds was in late January 1992 and affected the coast of Egypt and northern Sudan.

Key to inferred breeding figures

▼ laying �� fledglings predicted to emigrate l hatching � fledglings predicted to mature n fledging �� immigrants predicted to arrive

F1,F2 generation number

October 1991 November December January 1992

1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 1 8 15 22 29

Rainfall

----M---- ? ? ? M L ?

Locusts

F1 ▼-12 d-llll-------33 days-------nnnn �� F2tttt---15d---llll----------45 days---

February March April May Jun

5 12 19 26 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 21 28 4

No more rain until July

------nnnn uuuu F3tttt---15d---llll- ------40 days ------ --nnnn ��

Figure 2. Inferred breeding in Eritrea and the Sudan, winter and spring 1991/92

9. Typical locust development periods indicate that there was time for three generations between October

1991 and May 1992 (Fig. 2). This diagram omits the spread of laying caused by females laying second and third

egg-pods at approximately ten-day intervals. Nevertheless, the pattern of inferred breeding matches field

observations reasonably well. Scattered adults were in the Tokar Delta in mid October 1991 when the model

inferred laying. Teams saw low density hoppers, fledglings, immature and mature adults in December 1991 and

January 1992, which, accords reasonably well with the simulated estimates. These suggest that early first

generation fledglings would have matured and laid and second generation hoppers would have hatched and that

fledging from late layings would still be in progress. The immature and mature adults seen in the Sudan in

February and March accord with development period estimations that inferred populations were between the

second and third generations. The quantity and distribution of early season rains generated three simulated

generations. The lack of recorded rains and clouds from late January to July suggests that most locusts would

have emigrated in May rather than continue to breed throughout the summer.

10. Unusually, summer rains fell on the coastal plains in 1992 as quite often occurs during the initiation of

upsurges. In the second and third decads of July, rains fell over Eritrea and runoff probably reached the coastal

plains. Light rain fell in Port Sudan in the second decad of August when rain bearing clouds affected the Red Sea

coasts from southeastern Egypt to Eritrea as well as the Tihamas of Saudi Arabia and Yemen. These clouds also

moved across the interior of southwestern Arabia. No further rains or rain-bearing clouds were reported until

winter rains fell in early October and in November 1992 (Fig. 3).

11. The antecedents of the locusts seen in the Sudan and Eritrea in November 1992 were backtracked (Fig. 3).

This diagram shows the spread of laying caused by females laying more than once and the arrival of more

immigrants that were omitted from earlier figures. These estimations suggest that the November hoppers came

from eggs laid in October when laying groups were seen in the Sudan near the Eritrean border. The laying

swarms, if not immigrants, would have come from eggs laid in mid-September. The parent generation would

have been laid between mid-July and mid-August. This generation could have bred on a small scale during the

summer where there was runoff into wadis from the July rains. Breeding could have been more widespread after

the rains in mid-August. These generations are labelled F4 and F5 in Figure 3 because the reconstruction (Fig. 2)

Appendix 3

4

allowed three generations to breed between October 1991 and May 1992 and because it is normal for some

locusts to stay in the wadis during the summer.

July 1992 August September October November

9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19

Rainfall

------M/h----- ---L---- ---L--- Eritrea ------M/h----- ---L---- --L-- ---L--- Sudan

A. November laying swarms

F4▼-12 d-��------30 days------nnnn �� F5tttt-12 d-��------30 days-------nnnn �� ▼

July August September October November Dec

23 30 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 3

B. November hoppers

F4▼-12 d-��------30 days------nnnn �� F5▼-12 d-��------30 days------nnnn

▼-12 d-��------30 days------nnnn �� ▼-12 d-��------30 days------nnnn

▼-12 d-��------30 days------nnnn �� ▼-12 d-��------30 days------nnnn

Figure 3. Inferred local breeding in coastal Eritrea and Sudan, July to December 1992

12. The best guess estimates for numbers of locally bred locusts on the Red Sea coasts in November are very

much smaller than the numbers reported. This suggests that locusts arrived from other breeding areas. Two

potential sources in Africa were examined. One was the summer breeding area in the interior of the Sudan that

extends in some years into western Eritrea and eastern Chad. The other was the Railway Area of Ethiopia and

northern Somalia. Both had experienced above average rains in 1992 (Fig. 4). Potential locust movements from

these areas to the Red Sea coasts of Eritrea and the Sudan are considered below. A later section indicates that

potential sources in Arabia were not involved. Locust developments in the Railway area of Ethiopia and in

northern Somalia are traced from the heavy rains and floods in January 1992 (Figs 4 and 5). Those in the interior

of the Sudan are traced from the beginning of summer rains in May that were followed by unusually widespread

rains in June 1992 (Figs 4 and 6).

Origins of swarms in the Sudan, November 1992

Inferred breeding in Ethiopia and northern Somalia, January to October 1992

10 S

10 N

0

20 N

40 N

20 W 0 20 E

30 N

40 E 60 E 80 E 100 E

Figure 4. Areas of widespread rains, January to June 1992.

13. Simulated breeding was started in early February in the Railway area of Ethiopia and northern Somalia

following heavy rains and some flooding in late January (Figs 4 and 5). The model assumptions are that this rain

would support three generations. The first generation fledglings are likely to have matured and laid within the

M/H 1-6 April; Cyclone

clouds - 6-12 June

L 25-28Jan,

L/h 4, 11 Feb, Mar

M/H 1-6 Apr

M 1-15 Feb

M/h Jan

F end Jan M/h end Jan

M begJune

KEY (mm) L <20

M 21- 50 h 51-100

H 100-250 F floods


5

same breeding area, since the initiating rains were heavy and light rains fell during the hopper stage. Light rains

probably fell from clouds seen on satellite imagery in May during the second generation hopper stage. This

further suggests that a third generation probably bred in the area from early July. Moderate rains fell sometime in

July.

January February March April

1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 5 12 19 26 2 9 16

Rain --hF- L

Locusts

F1▼--15-20 d--llll---------40 days---------nnnn ��

April May June July August 23 30 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20

Rain

--?--- ----------M---------- Locusts

F2▼--15 d--llll------30 days------nnnn �� F3 ▼ 12 d-llll------30 days------nnnn

��

Figure 5. Inferred breeding in Ethiopia (Railway Area) and northern Somalia, January to August 1992

14. Heavier rain had fallen in northern Somalia and the adjacent parts of Ethiopia than along the Red Sea coasts

and so population growth was assumed to be greater. Regular movements of summer swarms from this area are

northward on southerly winds through the Danakil to the Eritrean coast or across the Red Sea to Arabia and

southwestwards when northeast trades replace the monsoon. Between May and October, a convergence zone

forms and traps swarms and presumably non-swarming adults along the escarpment where daytime northerly

upslope winds meet the southwest monsoon winds. Consequently, locusts are unlikely to have emigrated until

October. In 1992, southerlies blew on several days between 8 and 27 October, before the northeasterlies became

established, and again in some days during November. No survey data exist to test the destination of these

simulated populations and it is just possible that scattered locusts and some groups moved northwards to the Red

Sea Coast.

Inferred breeding in the Sudan and western Eritrea, June to December 1992 15. This section concentrates on events in the Sudan because virtually no data exist for eastern Chad and

western Eritrea to assess their role. Summer rainfall started early in the interior of the Sudan. Widespread, above

average rains fell in June, July and August suggesting that three generations were able to breed in some areas

from early June until December (Fig. 6). Survey teams saw very few locusts between June and September. The

copulating and laying groups that they saw at Derudeb (1703N/3605E) from the first week of October and at

Shendi (1642N/3326E) later in the month accord well with the inferred laying by F3 (Fig. 6). Locust maturing on

the early July rains and laying in mid July would have emigrated in November and could have provided the

swarms that laid eggs on the Red Sea in mid November. This presumed 30 day spread of laying shown in Figure

6 is about ten days longer than that assumed to occur between the first and third egg pods being laid.

May June July August September 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24

-M- ---H-- -L/M----|--------H-----------|---------L--------|

F1▼-12 d-llll------30days------nnnn �� F2▼-12 d-llll------30days------nnnn

F1▼-12 d-llll------30days------nnnn �� F2▼-12 d-llll----

-

October November December

1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 10 17 24

no further rains

��F3▼-12 d-llll---------40 days---------nnnn ��

------------nnnn ��

Figure 6. Inferred breeding in the Sudan, June to December 1992

16. Model assumptions gave high multiplication rates in the Sudan particularly during the second generation

and suggest that some small swarms would have formed. Some of the second generation progeny would have

migrated to the western Red Sea coast in October and November as is normal. Others were assumed to continue

a high rate of multiplication in the interior and to emigrate to the coast in mid December. Reports of groups

Appendix 3

6

breeding at Derudeb and Shendi confirm population increases in the first generation and that a second generation

bred in the interior. The sighting of swarms laying in December near Suakin and the Eritrean border possibly

indicates emigration of the second summer generation from the interior.

Origins of swarms in Saudi Arabia, November 1992

17. This next two sections follow population developments in Arabia away from the Red Sea coast where

widespread rains were recorded in spring and early summer 1992 (Fig. 4). It suggests that these populations did

not contribute to summer breeding on the Tihama or to the populations seen near Jeddah in November 1992.

Inferred breeding in Oman and southern Yemen, spring 1992

18. Rain fell frequently in Oman along the Batinah coast from late January to early April. In April, rain also

fell the southern part of Oman and Yemen (Fig. 4). The model interprets this as indicating that two generations

would breed along the Batinah coast and that there would be a single generation after the April rains in southern

Oman and Yemen (Fig. 8). Only scattered locusts were predicted to emigrate in June. This is greater than the

level of populations seen during survey in Oman, for only a single locust was seen on the Batinah coast in

January and none in subsequent surveys between March and May. No survey reports are available for

southeastern Yemen.


1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 5 12 19 26 2 9

-L- L/h L/F L -M/H --?

Batinah coast F1▼---20 days--llll--------37 days---------nnnn

April May June July

9 16 23 30 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16

�� F2tttt-12 d-llll------30 days-------nnnn �� Batinah coast

F1▼---15 d--llll------30 days------nnnn �� S Yemen, S Oman

Figure 8. Inferred breeding in Oman and southern Yemen, February to June 1992

19. Clouds, likely to produce rain, were observed in Hadhramaut and neighbouring parts of the Rub al Khali,

Saudi Arabia in three periods. No confirmatory rainfall totals exist for the first two periods; 6-10 June and the

last decad of July and the model assumes that these areas experienced light falls. Heavy falls were measured

during the third period, the first two decads of August. Any immigrants from Oman and from southern Yemen

were assumed to augment local locusts in the Hadhramaut and neighbouring areas of the Rub al Khali from early

to mid July. This simulation assumes that areas wetted in early June may have begun to dry out, so that few of

the early immigrants would have bred in mid-July. Consequently, maturation and laying were started in late July

after further rainfall.

June July August September

4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24

--?- ---?---|------h------|

�� F1 ▼-12 d-llll------32 days-------nnnn �� F2

October November December

1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 10

M/h

▼-12 d-llll---------40 days----------nnnn ��

Figure 10. Inferred breeding in the Hadhramaut and neighbouring Saudi Arabia, July to November 1992

20. The July and August rains were assumed to be heavy enough to prevent most of the progeny emigrating in

late September (Fig. 10). The population would have increased in both generations but would have remained too

small for widespread gregarization to be likely. In addition, the second generation fledged too late to have


7

contributed to the original sighting of laying swarms in Saudi Arabia in mid-November. No survey data exists to

test these model outputs.

Inferred breeding on the Saudi and Yemen Tihamas, January to November 1992

21. This section suggests that Saudi Arabia was probably invaded from Eritrea and, or the Sudan in November

1992 because populations on the Tihama were too small to have produced the swarms seen. Winter rains on the

Tihamas of Saudi Arabia and Yemen were insignificant until January 1992 when moderate to heavy rains fell

(Fig. 11). Then light rain fell on 3 February and 16 March, but no more significant rain fell until the unusual

rains in July and August, that affected both sides of the Red Sea.


1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30

-------M/h ------- L L

F1▼---20 days--llll----------46 days-------------nnnn �� F2▼--15 d- llll---

May June July August Sep

7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 3

---------?----------|-----M/h-----

---30 days------nnnn �� F3▼-12 d-llll------30 days

September October November Dec

10 17 24 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 3

---L--- ------L------

------nnnn �� F4▼-12 d-llll------30 days------nnnn ��

Figure 11. Inferred breeding on the Saudi and Yemen Tihamas, January to November 1992

22. Rainfall in January was sufficient to promote moderate population growth. Model assumptions are that the

light rain in March ensured that breeding continued in the same general area but that numbers would have fallen.

Most F2 fledglings were assumed to emigrate to summer breeding areas leaving a minimal recession population

to breed on the unusual summer rains. In this simulation, summer breeding began in early August. The resulting

population would have been too small in November 1992 to account for the swarms seen laying. Populations in

summer breeding areas of the Yemen were too small and fledged too late and so the most likely source of these

mid-November swarms was the Sudan or Eritrea (Fig. 3). Their maturity suggests that some of the F5 parent

generation (Fig.3) crossed the Red Sea.

APPENDIX 5. ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

Acronyms and abbreviations

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ALRC Anti-Locust Research Centre, UK (now part of NRI)

ARTEMIS Advanced Real-Time Environmental Monitoring Information System

BHC Benzene hexachloride

CD Compact disk

CET Commission d’étude de la toxicité des produits antiparasitaires à usage agricole

CILSS Comité Inter-états pour la Lutte contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel

Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel

COPR Centre for Overseas Pest Research

DLC see DLS

DLCC Desert Locust Control Committee

DLCO.EA Desert Locust Control Organization for Eastern Africa

DLIS Desert Locust Information Service

DLS & DLC Desert Locust Survey and Control

ECLO Emergency Centre for Locust Operations at FAO

EMPRES Emergency Prevention System [for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases]

ENS Exhaust Nozzle Sprayer

EPTA Expanded Program of Technical Assistance at FAO

ESRI Environmental Systems Research Institute

EVI Enhanced Vegetation Index

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Fig. / Figs Figure / figures

FTP File Transfer Protocol

GDP Gross domestic product

GIS Geographical Information System

GPS Global Positionaing System

IGR Insect Growth Regulator

IPM Integrated pest management

IRI International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA

ITCZ Inter-tropical frontal system

NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

NOAA-AVHRR National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Advanced very High Resolution

Radiometer

NRI Natural Resources Institute, UK (formerly ALRC and COPR)

OCLA Organisation Commune de Lutte Antiacridien

OCLALAV Organisation Commune de Lutte antiacridien et de Lutte antiaviaire

ONAA French Office National antiacridien

Para. / paras Paragraph / paragraphs

PC Personal computer

PRG Pesticide Referee Group

RAMSES Reconnaissance and Management System of the Environment of Schistocerca

SWIR short-wave infrared channel

SWARMS Schistocerca WARning and Management System

TAC Technical Advisory Committee

UAE United Arab Emirates

UK United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

ULV Ultra low volume spraying

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNESCO United Nations Educational. Scientific and Cultural Organization

UNSF United Nations Special Fund (later UNDP)

US[A] United States of America

UTC Coordinated Universal Time

WHO World Health Organization

APPENDIX 5. GAZETTEER

Gazetteer

GAZETTEER

The gazetteer contains the latitude and longitude in degrees and minutes of towns mentioned in Chapter 2.

Abu Dhabi

Abu Shaddad

Aden

Agadez

Ahwar

Akjoujt

Al Bayda

Al Hadd

Aqiq

Atbara

Bajil

Beihan

Benghazi

Beni Abbès

Bir Moghrein

Boroma

Buraimi

Derudeb

Dhahran

Dire Dawa

Duba

Dubai

El Abr

Elayu

El Wajh

Garoe

Geneina

Halaib

Hali

Harar

Hargeisa

Heis

Hodeidah

Hofuf

Ibb

Iferouane

In Abangarit

In Salah

Jeddah

Jizan

Kaolack

Karrin

Kassala

Khabb Oasis

Kuwait

Las Dureh

Las Khoreh

Lodar

Lith

24o27N 54

o23E

18o30N 46

o50E

12o50N 45

o03E

17o00N 07

o56E

13o25N 46

o45E

19o44N 14

o20W

13o58N 45

o43E

14o49N 46

o59E

18o12N 38

o12E

17o42N 34

o00E

14o58N 43

o14E

14o48N/45

o44E

32o02N 20

o05E

30o08N 02

o10W

25o10N 11

o35W

09o56N 43

o11E

24o15N 55

o45E

17o31N 36

o07E

26o18N 50

o05E

09o35N 41

o50E

27o19N 35

o46E

25o14N 55

o17E

16o08N 47

o14E

11o15N 48

o54E

26o14N 36

o28E

08o24N 48

o29E

13o27N 22

o30E

22o16N 36

o35E

18o38N 41

o22E

09o20N 42

o10E

09o31N 44

o02E

25o20N 49

o34E

14o48N 42

o57E

13o58N 44

o12E

10o53N 46

o54E

19o04N 08

o20E

17o54N 06

o03E

27o12N 02

o29E

21o30N 39

o10E

16o56N 42

o33E

14o09N 16

o08W

10o49N 45

o47E

15o24N 36

o30E

16o43N 45

o44E

29o20N 48

o00E

10o10N. 45

o00E

(11o10N/48

o13E

13o53N 45

o52E

20o10N 40

o20E

Ma’an

Mait

Marib

Massawa

Mecca

Mersa Teclai

Midi

Mukalla

Mugshin

Musmar

Nacfa

Najran

Nisab

Nuqub

Ok

Ouargla

Oyo

Port Sudan

Qunfidah

Rabigh

Ras el Khaima

Riyadh

Riyan

Sada’a

Sana'a

Salalah

Shabwah

Shamli

Shendi

Shuqra

Sirakoro

Sohar

Suakin

Sulaiyil

Sur

Tabelbala

Taif

Taiz

Tamanrasset

Thiès

Tokar

Tripoli

Umm Lajj

Wadi Halfa

Wad Medani

Wakiro

Yanbo

Zouerate

30o11N 35

o43E

10o58N 47

o05E

15o33N 45

o21E

15o37N 39

o28E

21o26N 39

o49E

17o45N 38

o40E

16o19N 42

o48E

14o34N 49

o09E

19o40N 54

o57E

18o06N 35

o40E

16o40N 38

o30E

17o30N 44

o10E

14o31N 46

o30E

14o59N 45

o37E

08o55N 46

o37E

31o57N 05

o20E

21o55N 36

o06E

19o38N 37

o07E

19o09N 41

o07E

22o48N 39

o02E

25o48N 55

o56E

24o39N 46

o46E

14o40N 49

o20E

16o57N 43

o46E

15o21N 44

o12E

17o00N 54

o04E

15o22N 47

o05E

26o48N 40

o14E

16o41N 33

o22E

13o21N 45

o42E

12o40N 09

o10W

24o48N 56

o06E

19o08N 37

o17E

20o27N 45

o35E

22o34N 59

o32E

29o23N 03

o15W

21o15N 40

o21E

13o33N 44

o03E

22o50N 05

o58E

14o49N 16

o52W

18o27N 37

o41E

32o58N 13

o12E

25o03N 37

o17E

21o55N 31

o20E

14o24N 33

o29E

15o40N 39

o15E)

24o07N 38

o04E

22o44N 12

o21W

Documents

DESERT LOCUST TECHNICAL SERIES · Courshee, R.J. 1965. Chemical control – technical studies. In Final report of the operational research team of the United Nations Special Fund