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Desert Solar Technologies and Climate Change Prof. Christos D. Papageorgiou NTUA Greece www.floatingsolarchimney.gr www.matineeenergy.com Slide 2 GLOBAL WARMING Slide 3 Global warming is a phenomenon observed and studied by many independent scientific institutions and is considered as a reality beyond any doubt Global warming is anthropogenic and it is the result of the greenhouse effect arising by the excess concentration of (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (CH4 etc) in the atmosphere, due to accelerating use of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) the last 100 years. For the official study of the global warming threat UN formed an international scientific committee (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC). IPCC that shared the NOBEL with Al Gore, published a set of documents and its main results are in a form of scenarios of global temperature increase related to equivalent CO2 concentration in atmosphere. Slide 4 The climate change and global warming due to CO2 emissions (IPCC scenarios) Without the proper measures for CO2 emissions elimination the climate change will become a real threat The Chinas and Indias energy demand make the situation much worst The best scenario (I) has a high cost, however the cost of the inaction is much higher Slide 5 The earth temperature change due to global warming by CO2 emissions oEven with the best IPCC scenario the global temperature increase until the end of the century will be (1.83.2 0C) oWithout any measures this increase could be higher than 8 0C oThe increased global temperature will last for hundreds of years Slide 6 The global warming effects Athropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized Temperatures in excess of 1.9 to 4.6 oC warmer than pre-industrial period will be sustained for millennia. Eventual melting of the Greenland (and maybe of the Antarctic) ice sheet, would raise sea level by 7 m This will be evident even before 2050 Slide 7 Precipitation change & extreme catastrophic events Due to precipitation changes fertile land devastation is possible in many areas The existing atmospheric models can not exclude the appearance of the most catastrophic extreme events (very strong typhoons, tornados, snow or hail storms etc.) Thus such extremely catastrophic events it is possible to appear sooner or later Slide 8 Is IPCC exaggerating ? Slide 9 What Prof Steven Chu (Nobel-prize-winning physicist ) declared before his nomination as the new secretary of DOE Our planet is threatened by a sudden and unpredictable catastrophe, the results of which are not reversible..We are going to suffer a tragedy which has not ever happened in human history The 60 year old academic has not hesitated in the past to characterize the forecasts of the IPCC for global temperature increase 1.8 up to 4 oC as overoptimistic. His estimations are near 6 oC up by the end of century, where 2 oC is considered as the acceptable limit. He has already proposed to the authorities of large cities (New York, London, Mumbai, Buenos Ires etc.) to start building huge water barriers in order to protect their citizens by the ocean waters that will flood due to the ice melting. Slide 10 More strict policies for global warming threat are necessary 43 countries are demanding that the measures against global warming should aim to limit the temperature increase not more than 1.5 oC and not 2 oC as it is the EU target. An increase of 2 oC will have catastrophic results on our countries declared the coordinator of the alliance of 43 island countries Mr S. Hart from Barbados. Slide 11 The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas - Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes Slide 12 Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas - Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths Slide 13 Intense tropical cyclone activity has increased in the North Atlantic since about 1970 - Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate Slide 14 More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics Slide 15 EU policy of 20-20-20 up to 2020 is in the right direction but it is not enough Slide 16 EU climate change policies up to 2020 Three targets characterize EU climate change policy up to year 2020: Decrease in greenhouse gases up to 20%. Electricity generation and end energy use up to 20% by renewables. 20% increase in energy efficiency. 20 20 20 up to 2020. Slide 17 The 20-20-20 policy is necessary but not enough The EU policy should be competed with the Desertec plan The Desertec plan anticipates massive solar electricity generation in MENA area and transmission to EU. This should become a EU target in the contex of EUROMED energy policy Adopting Desertec plan EU will be the right way to save the planet Slide 18 The Desertec plan in Euromed context Slide 19 The Desertec data Every square meter in the desert or semi desert lands of MENA area receives solar energy of 2000 KWh per year, as an average. With the existing solar technologies we can transform easily more than 1% of this solar energy to electricity. This means that from every square Km of desert or semi desert land we can generate electricity at least 20 GWh, which is enough to cover the needs of a city with 7000 population. Slide 20 The importance of Desertec project for EU If we assume that we would like to cover 40-50% of the EU needs in electricity, using desertec, we should generate 1250 TWh In order to achieve it, we should use a desert or a semi desert land not more than 62500 square Km or a square land of 250km X 250Km. Slide 21 Maximum land in order to cover 40-50 % of electricity of EU Slide 22 The electric transmission lines for Desertec The proper transmission system is the UHVDC Using DC lines of 800 KV we can easily transfer the solar electricity to South Europe and to the rest of Europe These DC lines can be overhead, underground or undersea without any problems The power losses are less than 3% per 1000Km and their average construction cost, including the terminal stations of AC-DC and DC-AC, will not be more than 1.0-1.5 billion EURO per 6GW (i.e half of the grid power of Greece) and for 1000 Km distance Slide 23 A representative map of Desertec plan Slide 24 What could be the results for EU by the Desertec application 40% of its end use electricity would be solar by Desertec 25% could be by local renewable technologies (Wind, Hydroelectric, Geothermal, solar, wave, etc) 20% by carbon power plants using CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) technology 15% could be nuclear and by imported Natural Gas power plants This mixture of electricity generation will secure the energy supply of EU And most important, more than 90% of EU energy needs could be renewable, that is a major step of EU in order to keep the global temperature increase below 2 C. Slide 25 Solar Electricity technologies with uninterrupted supply for Desertec Slide 26 Photovoltaic with Batteries Photovoltaic Systems transform straightforward the solar irradiation to DC electricity and using appropriate inverters to grid AC The PVs are generating interrupted electricity however they should be equipped with a massive storage energy system, usually it is a set of batteries, for its uninterrupted power supply The main disadvantage of the PV technology is its high investment cost (That cost is more than 3miilion EURO per produced GWh/year) For example this means that in order to generate electricity in Greece an annual amount of 40% ( 25000 GWh) an investment of 75 billion EURO is necessary !! The direct cost per produced KWh would be not less than 0.28 EURO (20 year operation of the plant, loan with interest rate 6.5% + OM~0.01-0.15 EURO/KWh) Slide 27 View of a Photo-Voltaic solar Park Slide 28 Concentrating Solar Power Plants (CSP) The CSP systems Using appropriate mirrors they concentrate the solar energy in order to increase the temperature of a circulating fluid above 300 oC. The circulating fluid transfers its thermal energy to steam used, in proper combined cycle power plants(steam turbines engaged to electric generators), generating electricity For uninterrupted power generation the CSP should be supported by a Thermal Energy Storage (TES) system and maybe they should burn some NGas The main CSP systems are: Solar Towers Solar dishes Parabolic through (Most preferred) Slide 29 SOLAR TOWER Slide 30 SOLAR DISH Slide 31 Parabolic Through Mirror Slide 32 Indicative operation of Parabolic Through DIRECT SOLAR RADIATION MIRRORS OR REFLECTORS ABSORBER TUBE SOLAR TRACKING Slide 33 Parabolic Through with Thermal Storage (TES) Slide 34 Parabolic Through System Parabolic through investment cost is lower than PV investment cost per produced KWh/year ( about 2 million EURO per produced GWh/year ) For example this means that in order to generate electricity in Greece an annual amount of 40% (25000 GWh) an investment of 50 billion EURO is necessary The direct cost per produced KWh would be not less than 0.18 EURO (25 year operation of the plant, loan with interest rate 6.5% + OM~0.01-0.15 EURO/KWh) A disadvantage of the CSP systems is that they need water for their steam plants and the cooling and cleaning of their mirrors Slide 35 Solar Chimney Technology They use open greenhouses in order to warm the ground and the air below their transparent roofs The warm air tends to escape through tall chimneys near the center of the greenhouses This stream of lighter than ambient warm air rotates a set of air turbines near the bottom of the solar chimney The rotating air turbines are engaged through proper gearboxes with electric generators supplying electricity to the grid through electric transformers The solar chimney technology to the ground thermal storage below the greenhouse has a natural thermal storage system Thus solar chimney technology power plants are operating continuously 24h/day 365 days/year. For smoother power profile the greenhouse can be supported by artificial thermal storage means (closed tubes filled with water) The solar chimneys can be made with reinforced concrete (very expensive structures) Or inexpensive lighter than air structures made of light fabric and raised by the buoyancy of special balloons attached to them (Floating Solar Chimneys) Slide 36 Solar Aero-Electric power plant with Floating Solar Chimney A SAEPP is made of three components: - A large solar collector with a transparent roof supported a few meters above the ground (The Greenhouse) - A tall, warm air up drafting, Cylinder on the center of this Greenhouse (The Floating Solar Chimney) - A set of Air Turbines geared to appropriate Electric Generators around the base of the Solar Chimney (The Turbo Generators). Slide 37 Solar Chimney power plants are similar to Hydro Electric FSC power plants are similar to Hydro- Electric Power Plants That is why I named them, Solar Aero- Electric power plants (SAEPs) Their Air Turbines convert the up drafting air dynamic energy (due to buoyancy) to rotational energy, as Water Turbines convert the waters dynamic energy (due to gravity) to rotational. In both Power Plants their Power Output is proportional to H (Floating Solar Chimney air up drafting or Dam falling water height) Slide 38 History (1) In 1926 Prof Engineer Bernard Dubos proposed to the French Academy of Sciences the construction of a Solar Aero-Electric Power Plant in North Africa with its solar chimney on the slope of the high height mountain Slide 39 History (2) Prof Dubos proposal was soon abandoned as very costly Later in 1980 with the financing of German government, Prof Engineer J. Schlaigh built a small prototype of a solar Aero-Electric power plant of 50 KW in Manzanares of Spain The solar chimney was 196 m high, with internal diameter 10 m The greenhouse area was 45.000 sqm The prototype was operating successfully for 8 years Slide 40 History (3) Prof J.Schlaigh proposed to build Solar Aero- Electric power plants with reinforced concrete solar chimneys of heights (500m-1000m) In 2002 this simple solar technology has attracted my attention, however I realized that the tall concrete structures (beyond the problems of earthquakes) will be of high cost, that can limit large scale application of this technology. In 2009 I received the EU patent for my invention of a low cost alternative. A lighter than air fabric structure, free standing and inclining by the external winds. Due to its patented construction this Floating (in the air) Solar Chimney can encounter external winds and operating sub pressures, executing its operational duties very effectively Slide 41 A small part of the Floating Solar Chimney Slide 42 Floating Solar Chimney inclining under external winds Wind direction Slide 43 A small part of the main body of the Floating Solar Chimney Compressed air Lifting gas Inner Fabric Slide 44 FSC power plant daily operation due to thermal storage effect -Ground only (blue) -Ground plus artificial thermal storage (green) -Solar irradiance % (red) 05101520 0 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 solar time in hours produced power % and solar irradiation % SAEPP of 4MW,DD=1000m,H=700m,d=34m,Wy=1750KW/m2 ground only plus tubes Slide 45 FSC power plants investment cost The FSC technology has much lower investment cost (1/4 of CSP technology i.e. approximately 500000 EURO per produced GWh/year) The FSC technology has many benefits beyond its far less investment cost, however it has not yet been tested at a demonstration project In order to generate 40% of the Greek electricity ( 25000 GWh) an investment on FSC technology of 12.5 billion EURO plus 1.5 billion EURO for the UHVDC transmission lines is necessary The direct production of KWh will be less than 0.06 (25 year operation of the plant, loan with interest rate 6.5% + OM~0.015-0.02 EURO/KWh, in the maintenance cost the periodic replacement of the FSCs is included ) Slide 46 A plan for Greece in the context of Desertec that can be realized with private funds Slide 47 Electricity generation in North Africa and transfer to Greece In the context of EUROMED and the Desertec plan a group of companies could lease a land of (40 KmX40 Km) where a huge farm of FSC technology power plants could produce ~25000 GWh The generated electricity could be transferred to Greece through UHVDC lines (800 KV) Slide 48 The Greek part of Desertec Slide 49 The importance of the Desertec plan for Greece With the described plan in the context of Desertec 40% of Greek electricity could be solar, produced in North Africa 20% could be produced by wind and solar technologies in Greece 15% by hydroelectric and geothermic power plants in Greece The rest 25% could be produced partly by local lignite (enough for the next 100 years under this low consumption plan) and imported natural gas power plants This plan will provide Greece with secured energy supply and could be a serious step towards the greenhouse gas elimination Slide 50 The project of generating 25000 GWh/year of solar electricity and transferring it to Greece it demands funds of ~14 billion EURO If the Greek government could guarantee the selling price of electricity by this project for the next 30 years, at the same price of wind electricity in Greece for example, I am sure that this plan can be easily financed by private funds PPC could lead this plan where as Greek and foreign construction companies could participate The economics of the plan Slide 51 It is necessary to keep the increase of global temperature below 2 oC Slide 52 In order to generate 50% of world electricity demand less than 3% of desert and semi desert lands of our planet are enough !!! The annual electricity demand is (year 2008) ~20.000 Wh A respectable part of the produced ~28 billion tons CO2 is coming from fossil fueled electricity generating technologies The annual electricity demand will be doubled in the next 30 years. In 2040 the estimated electricity demand is ~45.000 Wh The electricity generation by all clean technologies is not estimated to be more than 50% A large scale application of the Floating Solar Chimney technology in desert or semi desert areas could generate the missing 50% of electricity demand (20000-25000 TWh), cost effectively, eliminating the global warming threat Slide 53 Our future depends only on our decisions let us do our best Slide 54 Major reference sources An excellent presentation of the climate change and the mitigation policies is given in the documents of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IPCC information through key word IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch http://www.ipcc.ch EU information through the key words EU energy http://www.energy.eu http://www.energy.eu USA information through the key word DOE USA http://www.doe.gov http://www.doe.gov Slide 55 That was all !!!! Thank you for your attention!!!