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Design in an uncertain and complex world...
...with the support of scenario planning
P A Martin Bö[email protected]
www.futuramb.se+46 704 262891
@futuramb
Why am I here?
I’m going to make your world/design context a more complex place!
Context is everything
Contextualenvironment
Social factors, values and
demography
Technologydevelopment and
innovation
Environment and ecology
Politics, lawsand regulations
Economy, industries and
companies
Transactionenvironment
Internalworld
Design in context
Structural/instutional
perspective
Complex/compound use
situations
Elementary use case situations
Strategic future scenarios
Alternative complex situations
Specific functions which are robust over
time
Here and now Future/what-if
Time
Basic level
Higher level
Even higher level
Perspective
The research/design dilemma
Technologies/tools
Con
text
/sit
uati
on
Current
Future
Current Future
Risk of producing short term solutions with soon obsolete tools
Risk of surrenderto future challenges
Risk of producing irrelevant technologies/
design
Balanced and relevant
technologies/design for relevant future
situations
Are design contexts stable?
• Are there differences between artefacts and systems?
• How fast are they changing?
Time is important
• Good design is timeless
• What time perspective do you currently have? Do you know?
Was it better in the old days? Clock of the Long Now
Uncertainty over time
Effect of predictable factore
Distance to future
Uncertainty due to new and previously unknown factors
Where are we today?
• We are currently living in a rather turbulent, changing and uncertain environment
• Artefacts and systems tend to live much longer then we expect
• The users are increasingly • more innovative• more critical, demanding and unfaithful • striving to define and master their own situation• moving among different contexts
• We seems to be in a structural turbulent time when several inflection points working in concert
Transition society
The industrialmass logic/”the factory”
New emergingstructures - logics
Transition society
Urbanization and demographic challenges
Nature’s limitations are starting to be realized
The increasing systemic complexity, internal relationship and inner challenges
Globalization 2.0 and new patterns of consumption
Changing geopolitical world order
The emergance of business ecologies
Digital life and organization
Empowerment of the individual
Knowledge based economy
Level 1
Single view of future
C
B
A
Level 2
Alternative futures
Level 4
True uncertainty
Level 3
Range of futures
Degrees of uncertainty
Key question
How do we understand and take into consideration the changing greater contextual environment?
An environment which is
• dynamicly changing
• complicated and complex
• uncertain
• abstract/far away
How do you manage uncertainty?
Oil price development 1970 - 1981
High
Low
Base
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Oil price development 1970 - 1990
High
Low
Base
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Actual outcome
Clues
‣ “Memory of the future”
‣ The brain rearranges memory fragments to images of the future
‣ Provides a foundation for intentions and plans
‣ Focus perception and filter information
Autonomous
Uncertainty in time
Un
certainty
in issu
e
Today
Traditional
predictions
Driving f
Driving force
Driving force
Driving f
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario D
Scenario logic
Different approach: focus on criticaluncertainties
futurambfuture · insight · strategy
The future for american automotive industry
Low-price fuel
High-price fuel
Neotraditionalvalues
Inner-directed values
Engineers’ Challenge
• Efficiency• Protectionism
GreenHighways
• Smaller cars• Versatility
Foreign Competition
• Sportier cars• Light trucks and vans
Long LiveDetroit
• Muscle cars• Brand loyalty
(mid 1980:s)
futurambfuture · insight · strategy
What’s the point?
Jail
The factory
bling bling
Systemsanalyst?
??
???(wwdkwdk)
don’t knowknow
haveknowledge
don’t have knowledge
Make horseshoes
Accounting
Fire and heat
Contextualenvironment
Social factors, values and
demography
Technologydevelopment and
innovation
Environment and ecology
Politics, lawsand regulations
Economy, industries and
companies
Transactionenvironment
Internalworld
Events
Patterns
Underlying structureCritical uncertainties Technology
Laws & regulationsEconomy
Values
Culture
Politics
Ecology
”CNN provides the events,Henry Kissinger is the underlying structure”
Driving forces
Systemic view
Scenario development
Events
Patterns
Underlying structure
Visible manifestations
Trends
Causal relations
Stories
Sequences of events
Driving forcesScenario logic
System Scenarios
Critical uncertainties
Omvärld
Närvärld
Invärld
Scenario thinking process
Fas 1: Orientation- Interviews- Focal issue
Fas 2: Explore- Critical uncertainties- Predetermined elements
Fas 3: Synthese - Scenario framework- Scenarios Fas 4: Act
- Implications- Strategic agenda
Fas 5: Monitor- Leading indicators- Monitoring system
1. Key focual issueand time perspective
5. Scenario logic
Scenario development
2.Key factors
4. Prioritization
3. Environmentaldriving forces
Internalworld
Social factors, values and
demography
Technologydevelopment and
innovation
Environment and ecology
Politics, lawsand regulations
Economy, industries and compananies
Environment
Transactionenvironment
1. Choose key focal issue(+ time perspective)
2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
Uncertainty
Impact offoreseeable
factors
Distance to future
F S G
Source: Kees van der HeijdenScenarios – The Art of Strategic Conversation
2. List key factors2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
1. Brainstorm on PostIt notes!– List everything you know have an impact– ”Empty the barrel of the obvious”
2. Cluster notes and identify 4-6 key areas of impact– Avoid generic predefined areas– ”Let the notes talk!
Brainstorm tips:• First individual brainstorm, then group discussion• No single word PostIts• ”Yes, and…”• Keep the pace and keep the time limit!
3. Identify environmentaldriving forces
2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
• Widen the search to a higher level
• Add driving forces which
• Impacts the 4-6 key areas of impact
• Impacts the focal issue directly
• Use STEEP model
Tips:
• Ask why, why, why, why, why (5 times)
• Don’t be afraid of long shots!
• Keep yourself in the outer environment
Social factorsCultural patternsValues and lifestylesDemographicsHealthCrimeEducation
Technological factorsDiffusion of technologiesInnovationsScientific progress
Economical factorsIndustries and companiesGlobal, regional and local economyLabour force and incomeInfrastructure
Environmental factorsEcologyClimate/weatherPollutionRecyclingEnergy
Political factorsPolicys, laws and regulationsPolitical agendasCourt decisions
STEEP-model2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
4. Prioritize driving forces2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
Unimportant
Uncertainty
Predeterminedelements
Criticaluncertainties
Impact
5. Construct scenario logic2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
ABC XYZIssue
IssueHigh Low
ABC XYZ
High
Low
ScenarioA
ScenarioB
ScenarioC
ScenarioD
1. Identify two most critical uncertainties• From the top right corner
2. Stretch them to their extremes• Mutually exclusiveness!
3. Construct scenario cross4. Discuss resulting scenarios and
give them telling names
Windtunneling/evaluating
Scenario based analysis
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario D
Adopt-a-world
D
A
B
C
Alternativefuture worlds
workshop
The market in each worldworkshop
Products andservices in each worldworkshop
AnalysisAggregate results
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C D
AB
C
Experts
• Research directions• Core technologies• Product and service
concept ideas
The research/design solution
Technologies/tools
Con
text
/sit
uati
on
Current
Future
Current Future
Balanced and relevant
technologies/design for relevant future
situations
Scenario A Scenario B
Scenario DScenario C
D
AB
C
Scenario buffered design
Specification
Design
PROJECT PLAN
Development
Implementation
Specification
Design
STRATEGY
Development
Implementation
Actual use(Ah, that one!)
Scenarioplanning
TRADITIO
NAL
PROJE
CT
Actual use(Wrong!)
Scenario references
http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/Website with many references to articles, books and other resources
The Art of the Long ViewPeter Schwartz
Scenarios – The art of strategic conversationKees van der Heijden