German Environment Agency

Harry LehmannGeneral Director - Division Environmental Planning and Sustainbility Strategies

Jens Günther, Ullrich Lorenz, Katja Purr, Diana Nissler

Wolfgang Butz, Ulrike Döring, Eric Fee, Reinhard Herbener, Tim Hermann, Katja Hofmeier, Kai Kessler, Guido Knoche, Matthias Koller, Jan Kosmol, Kora Kristof, Martin Lambrecht, Martin Lange, Uwe Leprich, Lars Mönch, Nathan Obermaier, David Pfeier, Sebastian Plickert, Bettina Rechenberg, Martin Schmied, Jens Schuberth, Jan Seven, Sue Martina Starke, Max Werlein

Designing a resource efficient pathway

towards a greenhouse gas neutral Germany

And others ...

Climate Action Plan 2050

Harry Lehmann UBA

Harry Lehmann UBA

Goals and Scenarios

Goals and Scenarios

-50% Raw Material Use

Harry Lehmann UBA

20501 t/cap

Electricity

Industry

Waste

TransportHeatingCooling

Land Use

Agriculture

A resource efficient pathway towards a greenhouse gas neutral Germany

Systems View – interaction of energy and material

A resource efficient pathway towards a greenhouse gas neutral Germany

Scenario variation in the project

A resource efficient pathway towards a greenhouse gas neutral Germany

GreenEe Green GreenMe GreenLife GreenSupreme

Greenhouse gas reduction

2050very high very high very high very high very high

Level of ambition on

climate protection

measures in the pathway

(2030 and 2040)

high medium high high very high

Ultimate energy demand low high low very low low

Raw material use medium high low low low

Raw material efficiency high medium very high high very high

Behavioral changes medium medium medium very high high

Basic assumptions in the GreenEe - Scenario

Population in 2050 around 72 Mio.

Germany is still a strong industrialised country with an export orientation

Economic development 0,7 % annual growth in GDP

Distinctive and future-proof ICT-technologies are inherent parts in society and in all economic sectors

Net zero built-up area in 2050

Demand on net dwelling area in 2050 equal to 2010

10.07.2019 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 8

Energy System Transformation -

heat electricity fuels

gas

CHP,

gas turbine…

Coal-fired power,

CHP…kerosine,

benzene,

diesel…

…

CHP,

boiler…

CHP

PtG

PtL

PtH PtL:

PtG

electromobility

solid & liquid

combustibles

raw material(e.g. chemicalindustry)

Sustainable energy system(no CCS, nuclear energy and crop-based bioenergy (to end after 2030))

Fast introduction of renewables

full exploitation of the potential for increasing efficiency

efficient sector coupling

Harry Lehmann UBA

Quelle: UBA 2010 ff

A resource efficient pathway towards a greenhouse gas neutral Germany

Technology development has significant effects on raw material demand

A resource efficient pathway towards a greenhouse gas neutral Germany

Wiesen, Klaus, et al. „Analyse des Rohstoaufwandes der Energieinfrastruktur in Deutschland.“

Sachverständigengutachten im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes – Wuppertal, Dessau-Roßlau, 2017l.

Result: GHG emissions reduction in the GreenEe - Szenario

A resource efficient pathway towards a greenhouse gas neutral Germany

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1990 2010 2030 2040 2050

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

in m

illio

nto

nn

es

of

CO

2eq

Energy (without Transport) Transport Industry Waste Agriculture

-80 – 95%

– 80%

– 60%-55%

– 95%

Harry Lehmann UBA

Primärrohstoffkonsum im GreenEe-Szenario

Primärrohstoffkonsum (RMC) sinkt um 60 %

RMC pro Kopf reduziert sich um 55 % auf 7,6 t/Person

durchschnittliche Steigerung der Gesamtrohstoff-produktivität um 2,5 % pro Jahr

266 210 181 159

162143

11388

561

452

375

292

386

110

43

6

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2010 2030 2040 2050

Mio

. t

biomass metal ores non-metallic minerals fossil energy carriers

- 33 %

- 48 % - 60 %

12

Weg zu einem treibhausgasneutralen und ressourcenschonenden Deutschland

UBA/Ifeu/IEE/SSG

10.07.2019 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 13

global transferablity

10.07.2019 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 14

Systemic Policies…

10.07.2019 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 15

Systemic Policies… Factor X

Re - think

Re - design

Renewable

Regional

Re- pair

Re - manufactoring

Re – use

Re - cycle

10.07.2019 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 16

Lets start … it is possible

Conference 4./5.11 in Berlin

Vielen Dank für IhreAufmerksamkeit

Harry Lehmann

Harry.lehmann@uba.de

sowie Jens Günther, Philip Nuss, Ullrich Lorenz,

Diana Nissler und Katja Purr