Develop Sustainable Low-Carbon Society Scenarios by ...Passenger transport Freight transport 15 DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012,

Develop Sustainable Low-Carbon Society

Scenarios by Simulation Models

– In the case of Vietnam and

its implementation to Asia –

Junichi Fujino, Yumiko Asayama (NIES) Nguyen Tung Lam (ISPONRE, Vietonam)

Nguyen Thai Hoa (Kyoto University) WGIA2012, 12 July 2012, Hanoi

Designed by Hajime Sakai

GIO + AIM =

MRV + NAMAs???

My hypothesis…

AIM is an abbreviation of “Asia-Pacific Integrated Model” to support design sustainable societies and suggest actions comprehensively and consistently in quantitative manner. AIM developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) in collaboration with Kyoto University and several research institutes in the Asia-Pacific region since 1990. AIM has more than 20 simulation models such as top-down economy models, bottom-up technology models, sector-wise service demand and energy supply model, and environmental aspect models in global/national/sub-national scale.

LCS study by AIM team • 1990 start AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) project • 2000 provide IPCC/SRES A1B maker scenario • 2004.4-2009.3 “Japan LCS research project” coordinated

by AIM/NIES funded by MOEJ and provide 70% CO2 cut scenario by 2050

• 2006.2-2008.3 “Japan-UK joint LCS research project” submitted “call for action” to G8 Japan summit

• 2009.4-2014.3 “Low-Carbon Asia research project” coordinated by AIM/NIES funded by MOEJ

• 2010.4-2015.3 SATREPS “Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Region” especially focused on Iskandar and Malaysia funded by JST/JICA

Vietnam

Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam

DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY Kyoto University: Nguyen Thai Hoa, Kei Gomi, Yuzuru Matsuoka National Institute for Environmental Studies: Tomoko Hasegawa, Junichi Fujino, Mikiko Kainuma Institute of Strategy, Policy and Natural Resources: Nguyen Thi Thuy Duong, Nguyen Tung Lam, Nguyen Lanh, Nguyen Van Tai Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment: Huynh Thi Lan Huong, Tran Thuc Water Resources University: Nguyen Quang Kim Japan International Cooperation Agency: Hiroshi Tsujihara

Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam

Background Why we need a LCS? In conventional growth pathway, developed countries have been emitting a large amount of green house gases in the process of economic growth. To avoid it, a developing country like Vietnam should leap-frog this process and creates low-carbon society (LCS) directly. One of the strategic objectives of “National Target to Respond to Climate Change” is “take an opportunity to develop towards a low-carbon economy” and “ National Climate Change Strategy” is “consider low carbon economy as principles in achieving sustainable development; GHG emission reduction to become mandatory index in social and economic development” In order to contribute discussion on LCS, we created a national sustainable LCS scenario in Vietnam in 2030.

9

DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam

Socio-economic part of ExSS

10


Data collection (socio-economic) Data Source

Population Population Division - United Nations Population low variant, 2030 for Vietnam, General Statistic Office of Vietnam (2008)

Household Vietnam Population and Housing Census (2009).

IO table Input-output table 2005 (Trinh Bui, 2009)

Transport

JICA/MoT(2009): The comprehensive study on the sustainable development of transport system in Vietnam (VISTRANSS 2)

General Statistic Office of Vietnam (2009) Schipper L., A. T. Le, O. Hans., 2008. Measuring the invisible. Quantifying emissions reductions from transport solutions. Hanoi case study. EMBARQ – The WRI Center for Sustainable Transport and World Resources Institute. Walter, H. and R. Michael (1995). Motorization and non-motorized transport in Asia. Transport system evolution in China, Japan and Indonesia. Land Use Policy, Vol 13, No.1, pp. 69-84, 1996. 11


2030 BaU Assumptions Indicator Quantification (2030BaU scenario) Tendency to Population 104 million people Growth rate at 0.9 % per annum

Demographic composition

[Male] 0-14: 8%, 15-64: 35.9%, 65 and over: 5.8% [Female] 0-14: 7.7%, 15-64: 35.2%, 65 and over: 7.4%

Number of male births are higher than female births

Average number of persons per household

3.5 (4.2 in 2005) Slight decrease in average size of household

GDP 6.5% Average annual growth rate during the period 2005 - 2030

Industrial structure [Agriculture, Fishery, Forestry]: 17% (22% in 2005) [Industry, Construction]: 43% (41% in 2005) [Service]: 40% (37% in 2005)

Primary industry sectoral share has a decrease trend, whilst secondary and tertiary industry have an increasing trend.

Demand structure Contribution of export in GDP: 29% (29% in 2005)

Export maintains there share in GDP

Modal shift in transport Passenger transport: [Train] 0%, [Bus] 0.6%, [Waterway] 0.6%, [Car] 0.3%, [Motorbike] 8.3% [Walk & Bike] 90%, [Aviation] 0.1%

Increasing of public transport, keep people respond to walk and use bicycle

Freight transport: [Train] 2%, [Waterway] 27%, [Truck] 71%, [Aviation] 0%

Increasing of share of train and waterway freight transport 12


Estimated socio-economic indicators

2005 2030 BaU 2030 CM 2030BaU/2005 2030CM/2005 Population (million people) 83.1 104.0 104.0 1.3 1.3

No. of households (million) 20.0 29.7 29.7 1.5 1.5

GDP (trillion VND) 818.5 3,963 3,963 4.8 4.8

Gross output (trillion VND) 1,934 9,750 9,750 5.0 5.0

Primary industry (trillion VND) 404 1,684 1,684 4.2 3.9

Secondary industry (trillion VND) 1,033 5,497 5,497 5.3 5.2

Tertiary industry (trillion VND) 497 2,569 2,569 5.2 5.2 Passenger transport demand (million people-km) 223,981 542,687 518,028 2.4 2.3

Freight transport demand (million ton-km) 38,856 235,212 235,124 6.1 6.1

13


Projected industrial output

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2005 2030

Trill.

VND

Services Construction Capital goods Industrial materials Other consumer goods Food, beverage & tobaco manufactures Mining and quarrying Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry

14


Projected transport demand

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2030BaU 2030CM

Billio

n pas

s-km

Domestic aviationWalk & bikeInland waterwayTrainBusCarMotorbike

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2030BaU 2030CM

Billio

n ton

.km

Domestic aviation

Inland waterway

Train

Truck

There is an increasing share of motorbike and domestic aviation in passenger transport in 2030

Freight transport volume increases proportionally with growth of secondary industries

Passenger transport Freight transport 15


Projected final energy demand by sectors

3 14 74

2112

26

46

3710

62

53

2

10

8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005 2030BaU 2030CM

Mtoe

Commercial

Industry

Residential

Freight transport

Passenger transport

16


Projected CO2 emissions from energy sector

15

110

686

4128

39

257

185

10

47

23

11

67

38

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2030BaU 2030 CM

MtCO

2Commercial

Industry

Residential

Freight transport

Passenger transport

17


Contribution of low carbon countermeasures

22%

16%

13%

28%

6%

16%

Center Power Supply Freight TransportPassenger Transport IndustryCommercial Residential

39

4

24

1

10

13

0.3

23

16

11

5

3

2

13

11

4

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Energy efficiency and fuel shift

Modal shift

Energy efficient vehicle

Biofuel

Publilc transport

Energy efficient vehicle

Biofuel

Energy efficiency improvement

Fuel shift

Energy saving


Fuel shift & Natural energy

Energy saving behavior


Fuel shift & Natural energy

Energy saving behavior

Pow

erse

ctor

Frei

ght T

rans

port

Pass

enge

r Tra

nspo

rtIn

dust

ryC

omm

erci

alR

esid

entia

l

18

Unit: MtCO2


AFOLUB model AFOLUB model Activity data Emission/mitigation

• AFOLUB model • Bottom-up type model to determine combination and amounts of individual mitigation

countermeasures • Estimate GHG emissions and mitigations in AFOLU sectors • Analyze effect of policies such as carbon tax, energy tax, subsidy etc. • Time horizon: mid-term (typically until 2030)

• AGriculture Bottom-up module (AG/Bottom-up) • Illustrate behavior of agricultural producers and selection of mitigation countermeasures • Maximize producer’s profit

• The LULUCF/Bottom-up • Illustrate land use and land use change cohort • Maximize total accumulated mitigation in the future

• AG/Bottom-up • LULUCF/Bottom-up

19


Input and output of AFOLUB model

List of CountermeasureCharacteristics of countermeasure- Cost- Reduction effect- Life time- Diffusion ratio- Energy consumption and recoveryScenario of;- Fertilizer input- Price of commodity and energy- Production technologies

- Feeding system of livestock - Manure management system- Share ratio of irrigation area

Policy;- GHG emission tax rate- Energy tax rate - Subsidy

Emission/mitigationTypes of countermeasures

AFOLUB model

Scenario of;- Crop production- Yield of crops and carcass

weight of animals- Number of livestock

animals- Land use, land use change

Exogenous variables

Endogenous variables Model

Allowable abatement cost for GHGemission mitigation

Source: Hasegawa and Matsuoka, submitted 20


Data sources • Present & future Activity data

• Crops & Livestocks in 2005-2009: • Vietnam Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (SNC) • Statistical Yearbook (2002, 2007 and 2009) • Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2006 • FAOSTAT, 2012, download

• Landuse in 2000, 2005: • SNC • ResourceSTAT, FAOSTAT, 2011, download • Statistical Yearbook 2001(2002)

• Countermeasure data • Collected from domestic & international literatures • Countermeasures in LULUCF is referred to SCN

Cost Mitigation[USD/activity/yr]* [tCO2eq/activity/yr]*

3A1 Replacement of roughage with concentrates

RRC -23 0.45 Bates(1998a), Shibata et al.(2010), Graus et al.(2004)

High genetic merit HGM 0 0.32 Bates(1998a)3A2 Dome digester, cooking fuel and light CFL 44 0.62 USEPA(2006)

Daily spread of manure DSM 2.2 0.33 Bates(1998a)3C7 Midseason drainage MD 0 0.89 USEPA(2006)

Fall incorporation of rice straw FIR 0 0.68 USEPA(2006)Replace Urea with Ammonium RAS 20 0.24 USEPA(2006), Graus et al. (2004)

3C4~3C6 High efficiency fertilizer application HEF 2.2 0.65 USEPA(2006), Hendriks et al. (1998), Amann et al. (2005)

Slow-release fertilizer application SRF 2150 0.76 USEPA(2006), Akiyama et al.(2010)Tillage and residue management TRM 5 0.08 IPCC(2007), Smith et al.(2007)

* Activity is area of cropland for crop cultivation and animal numbers for livestocks.

Code

Manure management

Rice cultivations

Managed soils

Emission sources CountermeasuresCode

Enteric fermentation

Reference

Countermeasures in Agricultural sector

21


Comparison of total GHG emissions in BaU in AFOLU sectors

SCN,2000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Emission and removals fromsoils 28 20 18 19 17 15 14

Emission from agriculture 63 62 65 72 74 78 85Forest and grassland

conversion 41 42 35 31 29 27 23

Changes in forest and otherwoody biomass stocks -50 -50 -48 -47 -46 -45 -43

TOTAL 82 74 70 75 74 76 79

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

GHG

emiss

ion [M

tCO 2]

22

SNC


GHG emissions/mitigations in Vietnam in 2030

Sector

GHG emissions (MtCO2eq)

GHG emissions reduction (MtCO2eq) 2030BaU 2030CM

AFOLU sectors 79 37 42 Agriculture 85 64 21 LULUCF -6 -27 21 Energy sectors 522 342 180 Residential sector 110 68 42 Commercial sector 41 28 13 Insudtry 257 185 71 Transport 114 61 53 Total 601 379 222

151

601

379

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2030 BaU 2030 CM

GH

Gs

emis

sion

s/re

duc

tion

s (M

tCO

2)

GHG Emission

Total emission reduction 222 Mt-CO2eq

36% reduction

4 times

LULUCF21 MtCO2

Agriculture21 MtCO2

Residential28 MtCO2

Commercial10 MtCO2

Industry50 MtCO2

Passenger transport23 MtCO2

Freight transport29 MtCO2

Power Supply39 MtCO2

23 In 2030BaU scenario, GHG emissions were four folds from 2005 from 151 MtCO2 to 601 MtCO2

In 2030CM scenario, GHG emission was reduced 36% from 2030BaU.

4times

36% cut


Projected per capita GHG emissions and emission intensity

0.12

0.18

0.15

0.10

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

2000 (SNC) 2005 2030BaU 2030 CM

tCO 2

/trill-

VND

0.7

1.8

5.8

3.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2000 (SNC) 2005 2030BaU 2030 CM

t-CO 2

/capit

a

Per capita GHG emissions Emission intensity

24

• Emission intensity was reduced 20%

20% cut


Malaysia

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Chau Loon Wai

Ho Chin Siong

IRDA HIGH-LEVEL LCS MEETING

IM LCS Actions 10 July 2012

IRDA, Danga Bay, Johor Bahru

01 Introduction: Background of Project Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions

Study Area: Iskandar Malaysia Objective: i. To formulate key policies and strategies to ensure continuous strong growth and development of

Iskandar Malaysia while mitigating the economic region’s carbon emission

ii. To transforming Iskandar Malaysia into a sustainable, low carbon metropolis by adopting green growth strategies/roadmap

iii. To respond to the nation’s aspiration for ensuring climate-resilient development for sustainability. Target Year: 2025 (2005 – 2025)

(Source: Iskandar Regional Development Authority)

IM LCS Actions, 10 July 2012 at IRDA, Danga Bay, Johor Bahru

Research Team: Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Kyoto University (KU), Okayama University (OU), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Joint Coordinating Committee: Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA), Federal Department of Town and Country Planning (JPBD), Malaysia Green Technology Corporation (MGTC) Sponsorship: Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) , Japan Science and Technology (JST) Period: 2011 - 2016 Research Output: i. Methodology to create LCS scenarios which is appropriate for Malaysia is developed.

ii. LCS scenarios are created and utilised for policy development in IM.

iii. Co-benefit of LCS policies on air pollution and on recycling-based society is quantified in IM

iv. Organizational arrangement of UTM to conduct trainings on LCS scenarios for Malaysia and

Asian countries is consolidated, and a network for LCS in Asia is established

01 Introduction: Background of Project Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions


30

LCS scenario study using ExSS

Wage Income

Export by goods

Government expenditure

Investment

Import ratio

Input coefficient matrix

Labor productivity Labor participation ratio

Household size

Consumption pattern

Demographic composition Taxation and

social security

Floor area per output

Freight generation per output

Transport distance

Modal share

Trip per person

Trip distance

Modal share

Energy service demand per driving force

Fuel share Energy efficiency

CO2 emission factor

IO analysis

Output by industry

Consumption

Labor demand Population

Number of household

Output of commercial

industry

Commercial building floor

area

Freight transport demand

Passenger transport demand

Population

Energy demand

CO2 emission

Output of manufacturing

industry

Carbon sink

Methodology developed by Shimada et.al (2006), Gomi et. Al (2007) IM LCS Actions, 10 July 2012 at IRDA, Danga Bay, Johor Bahru

Potential Mitigation in IM

31

12552

45483

19162

4463

10831

777 3510

5521

623

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

GH

G e

mis

sion

s/re

duct

ions

(kt-C

O2)

Transport demand management

Fuel shifting

Efficiency improvement (buildings)

Efficiency improvement (transport)

Efficiency improvement (industry)

Efficiency improvement (powersector)

GHG emissionsE

mis

sion

Red

uctio

ns

57% 262%

52%


Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions 02 LCS Actions for IM: Where We Are Now

New Action Names Themes 1 Integrated Green Transportation

GREEN ECONOMY 2 Green Industries 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance 4 Green Buildings and Construction 5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy

6 Low Carbon Lifestyle GREEN COMMUNITY

7 Community Engagement and Consensus Building

8 Walkable, Safe, Livable City

GREEN ENVIRONMENT

9 Smart Growth 10 Green and Blue Infrastructure

11 Sustainable Waste Management

12 Clean Air Environment

Since 06 July 2012…


Action 6: Green and Blue Network/Infrastructure

1. Maintaining regional carbon sink2. Cooling effects of forests

6.1Regional Green

Corridor Network

Acquisition of land for forest connections

1. Identify potential

linking corridors between existing

forested areas for future

land acquisition

Protect existing forests

1. Gradually gazette

presently ungazettedprimary & secondary forests as protected

forests

6.2Conservation of

mangrove forests

Reinforce protection of

existing mangrove

areas

1. Gazette all mangrove areas as

protected forests

2. Ongoing mangrove

species audit 3. Strict

enforcement against illegal

mangrove clearing

Mangrove area

regeneration

1. Involving students and

schools in mangrove

trees planting2. Corporate

sectors adoption of mangrove

regeneration projects

6.3Promote urban forests (urban recreation and

green lungs)

Reintroduce endemic

forest species into existing urban parks

1. Involving students and

schools in forest tree

planting

Create new urban parks

1. Identify potential plots for

urban parks (unused

government land)

2. Introduce endemic

forest species in new urban

parks3. Create

linear urban

6.4New development to retain existing

vegetation

Enforcement of ACT 172 (Part VA:

Trees Preservation

Order)

1. Encourage reporting of illegal tree

felling 2. Carry out municipal

tree surveys for existing

green areas in IM

R

1

2

a

3


Green-focused Agenda

Env’l Planning & Mngt

Social & Cultural

Dev

Integrated Transport

SWM

Land Use Planning

RE & Resources

Economic Dev

Com & Industry Planning

& Dev

Reuse Recycle Reduce

Compost

Talent Workforce;

Low carbon lifestyle

Modes Infrastructure

Corridors Movements

Value-added

products & services

FIT EE blgs &

areas Rainwater harvesting

CDP Fed Policy

NPP IRDA’s BPs

LCS

Implement Comply . Enforce Monitor . Review

Green Economy

UD Phased Dev & DC

DPs

Decarbonising development/ Development

Process

TODs


Strong Sustainable Metropolis Of International Standing

Indonesia

Preliminary Quantification of scenarios by

Extended Snapshot Tool for Low Carbon Society in Indonesia

Retno Gumilang Bandon Institute of Technology, Indonesia

Yuzuru Matsuoka, Ryohei Osawa, Kei Gomi Kyoto University, Japan

“Low Emission Development Scenarios (LEDs) of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise”

2012/June/6th, DNPI, Jakarta

36

• This presentation shows a preliminary result of Indonesia LCS scenario in energy sector in 2020.

• ExSS (Extended Snapshot Tool) was used as a main tool of quantification of the scenarios.

• Objective of this scenario study is to provide useful information for the discussion of low-carbon development of Indonesia by assessing possible emission reduction by mitigation options in 2020.

• Future assumptions are mainly referred to Indonesia Second National Communication, Chapter V, Measures to Mitigate Climate Change.

• The scenarios were prepared by Bandon Institute of Technology and Kyoto University with support of JICA Indonesia and DNPI, the Government of Indonesia.

37 “LEDs of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise” 2012/June/6th, DNPI, Jakarta

Framework of the scenarios • Scope

– Energy demand and supply sectors – CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion

• Base year: 2005 • Target year: 2020 • Two scenarios

– 2020 Baseline – 2020 CM

• CM scenario achieves -26% from baseline


Scenarios in 2020 • Baseline scenario: Projection of GHG emission

under expected socio-economic development in Indonesia without additional countermeasures to reduce GHG emission from energy.

• CM scenario: Projection of GHG emission with mitigation options (low-carbon counter measures) which achieve the official mitigation target of Indonesia in 2020, -26% from the Baseline.


Model structure of ExSS

40

Export by goods

Government expenditure

Investment

Import rate

Input coefficient matrix

Household size

Floor area per output Freight generation per

output Transport distance

Modal share

Trip per person

Trip distance

Modal share

Energy service demand per driving force

Fuel share

Energy efficiency

CO2 emission factor

IO analysis

Output by industry

Population

Number of household

Output of commercial industry

Commercial building floor

area

Freight transport demand

Passenger transport demand

Population

Energy service demand

Output of manufacturing

industry

Exogenous variables Parameters

Endogenous variables

Final energy demand

Energy demand (DPG)

Central power generation (CPG)

Energy demand (CPG)

Primary energy supply

Dispersed power generation (DPG)

CO2 emssions

Energy efficiency DPG

Energy efficiency (CPG)

Fuel share (CPG)

Transmission loss (CPG)

Own use (CPG)

Energy end-use device share

Energy end-use device energy efficiency

Carbon sink

Private consumption

“LEDs of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise” 2012/June/6th, DNPI, Jakarta

Collection of Information in 2005 Category Data Information source

Demography Population and number of household

Indonesian population census, BPS-Indonesia

Economy Input-output table Indonesian Input-Output table, BPS-Indonesia

Transport Passegenr transport volume Transportation statistics, Ministry of transportation

Freight transport volume AIM database

Energy Energy demand and supply National energy balance, Pusdatin-MEMR

Energy demand by industry AIM datable 41


CO2 Emission

42

Difference of CO2 emissions shown in NC2 and this study in 2005 is considered to be caused by difference of detailed energy consumption and/or emission factor of the fuels.

69

326

26

290

138

295

64

95

16

36

30

47

339

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2005NC2

2005 2020Baseline

MtC

O2

TotalEnergy Industries*Freight TransportPassenger TransportManufacturingCommercialHousehold

344 339

1047


CO2 Emission

43

69

317 237

26

280

187

138

293

238

64

95

76

16

36

35

30

47

33

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2005 2020Baseline

2020CM

MtC

O2

Energy Industries*

Freight Transport

Passenger Transport

Manufacturing

Commercial

Household

-26.0%

1047

343

771

* Energy Industries include oil and gas refinery, gas flaring and LNG industries. Emission from power generation is allocated to final demand sectors.


Contribution of measures

44

EEI : Energy Efficiency Improvement EE: Energy efficient CCS : Carbon Capture & Storage LC : Low Carbon

31

4.2

34

14

2.5

12

34

0

4.7

16

27

40

42

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Include the non-selected LC energy system

Increase the share of the selected LC energy system

Increase the use of efficient technology in power…

Develop technology for natural gas power…

CCS technology application for large coal power…

Gas flaring and venting reduction

Increase biofuel development efforts for personal…

Increase the use of new energy in transportation

Promote mass rapid transport

Process improvement in Industry Sector

EEI in Residetial Sector

EEI in Commercial Sector

MtCO2


Japan

45

Japan’s targets in the contexts of climate change

GHG emissions: -6% by 1990 compared to the 1990 level the Kyoto Protocol -25% by 2020 compared to the 1990 level -80% by 2050 compared to the 1990 level the United Nations Summit on Climate Change

46

48

Vision A Vision B

Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthrough Centralized production /recycle

Self-sufficient Produce locally, consume locally

Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth

As for LCS visions, we prepared two different but

likely future societies

Akemi Imagawa

49

17

10

23

9

3 43 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2050A 2050B

Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n (M

toe)

Change of the numberof householdsChange of servicedemand per householdChange of energydemand per householdImprovement of energyefficiencyElectricity consumption

H2 consumption

Solar consumption

Biomass consumption

Gas consumption

Oil consumption

Energy consumption in2000

Residential sector Energy demand reduction potential: 50%

Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and B Change of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per household Change of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS) Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power

Energy Efficiency

Insulation system

[Technology]

[Society / Economy]

[People]

50

Industry Commercial Residential Transport

Greenhouse Gases Energy Supply

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

50

Agriculture

Volume of greenhouse gas emissions (100 million tons of CO2 in 2007)

Local development (Rural communities)

Daily life

CO2 originating from power generation

Before shift

CO2 originating from power generation

After shift Manufacturing Industry + industry processes + F gases

Residences and buildings

Homes + buildings Railways / marine / air

Transportation

Forest sinks, etc.

Automobiles

Energy supply

(indirect emissions)

(direct emissions)

Towards Low Carbon, Green Economy

Energy Saving, Renewables Reduce GHG by 80% through 40:50 & 20:20

40:50 by 2050 Energy Saving for 40% reduction of energy demand Renewables Constitute 50% Energy.

20:20 by 2030

2050

2030年

2012年 present

Energy Demand

Saving Energy

Renewables

20%

ー20%

ー４0%

50%

CO212Gt

9Gt

2.4Gt

Energy Saving for 20% reduction of energy demand Renewables Constitute 20% Energy.

Proposed in June 2012 by Central Council of Environment, as alternatives of low carbon policy after Fukushima

［業務］高効率空調

［運輸］次世代自動車（旅客）

［家庭］HEMS

［家庭］高効率照明

［業務］高効率照明

［業務］高効率給湯

［業務］BEMS

［家庭］高効率家電

［産業］高性能ボイラ

［業務］高効率動力等

［業務］断熱材

［産業］高性能工業炉

［家庭］高効率空調

［産業］産業用HP

［運輸］自動車燃費改善

［電力］バイオマス・廃棄物発電

［産業］省エネ・エネ回収設備

［電力］地熱発電

［産業］革新的プロセス

［電力］風力発電

［産業］産業ガス転換

［産業］発電設備高効率化

［家庭］太陽光発電

［業務］太陽光発電

［運輸］次世代自動車（貨物）

［家庭］高効率給湯

［家庭］省エネ住宅

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

-20,000

-40,000

0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 240,000 280,000 320,000

［電力］中小水力

［産業］代替エネルギー

削減費

用（

円/tC

O2）

削減量（1000tCO2） 52

各主体に任せては対策技術の導入は進まない。主観的な選択が外部費用や社会費用も加味して変容するような施策の後押しが必要。

産業部門・投資回収年数 12～15年家庭部門・投資回収年数 8年（*1）業務部門・投資回収年数 8年（*2）運輸部門・投資回収年数 8年再エネ発電・投資回収年数 12年

産業部門・投資回収年数 3～9年家庭部門・投資回収年数 3年業務部門・投資回収年数 3年運輸部門・投資回収年数 5年再エネ発電・投資回収年数 9年

参考・事務所用建物 22～50年・鉄鋼業用設備 5～14年・家庭用冷暖房機器 6年・建物附属冷房･暖房設備 13～15年・自動車 3～5年・汽力発電設備 15年・その他発電設備17年

*1 住宅は17年，*2 建築物は15年

This result was reported at national committee on mid-long term GHG mitigation roadmap on 21st Dec, 2010

The result by AIM/Enduse[Japan]

Mitigation cost curve in Japan to achieve 25% GHG emissions reductions

by 2020 compared with 1990 level

53

• As for the investment amount for global warming, half of the overall investment amount will be collected by 2020 and an amount equal to the investment amount will be collected by 2030 based on energy expenses that can be saved through technologies introduced.

<Low-carbon investment amount and energy reduction expense>

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Energy saving investment through

2020

Volume of reduction from energy saving technologies

Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment = approx. 50 trillion yen (25% reduction)

In the case of device with 10 year lifespan

Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment = approx. 49 trillion yen (25% reduction)

- 36 - 43 - 50

- 35 - 42 - 49

58 78

96

- 100

- 50

0

50

100

150

25% reduction

Additional investment (’11 – ’20 total)

Energy reduction expense (’11 – ’20 total) Energy reduction expense (’21 – ’30 total)

Relationship between low-carbon investment and energy reduction expense

20% reduction

15% reduction

Cos

t (Tr

illion

Yen

)

0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.6

0.8 1.0

0.5 0.8

1.1

0.6

1.0 1.1

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.5

0.6

0.7

0.9

0.2

0.4

0.5

5.8

7.8

9.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

▲15% ▲20% ▲25%

その他

電力系統

その他新エネ発電

太陽光発電

自動車

業務用建築物・機器

家電製品

家庭用給湯器

住宅

産業

Japan needs to invest on average 6 to 10 trillion yen per annum in additional funds to achieve a ▲15% to ▲25% by 2020. If this spending is not spread across all sectors of society, Japan will face difficulty in implementing the necessary countermeasures to achieve this target. Yet, this also means Japan will need to create new markets on par with this spending.

[Additional Investments Required to Achieve CO2 Reduction Target] A

dditi

onal

Inve

stm

ent A

mou

nt (T

rillio

n Ye

n / Y

ear)

・Japan needs to develop policies that reward consumers who chose and companies that manufacture low-carbon products. ・Japan needs to proactively move forward with investments that contribute to green innovation.

Comments from the Roadmap Subcommittee

Need to spend between 6 and 10 trillion yen per annum across all sectors of society

Create Green Markets Grow Green Markets

15% Reduction

Other

Electric Power Systems Other New Energy Generation PV Automobiles Commercial Buildings / Equipment Home Electronics Residential Water Heaters Housing

Industrial

20% Reduction

25% Reduction

Huge green business opportunity accompanied by transition to low carbon society

1-2% of GDP

54

Asia

55

Funded by Ministry of Environment, Japan (GERF, S-6) and NIES

GHG

emiss

ions

per

cap

ita High

Carbon Locked in Society

Low Carbon Locked in Society

Development of Asia LCS Scenarios

Policy Packages for Asia LCS

Low Carbon Society Backcasting

Leapfrog-Development

How to reach to Low Carbon Society in Asia ?

High Carbon Locked-in type Development

Climate catastrophe: Significant Damage to Economy and Eco- System

Time

(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS (2) Quantifying future LCS visions (3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting

Collaborating with Asian colleagues

57

Research members

Application and development to actual LCS processes

Development and maintenance of study tools/models

Each country’s domestic/ local research institute

Policy makers

Central/ regional

government managers

NGOs

Proposal/ collaborative activity on LCS scenario and roadmap making

Request of more practical, realistic roadmaps and also tractable tools for real world

Cambodian low-carbon development plan scoping-meeting

DATUM: KL Kuala Lumpur Architecture Festival 2011

Malaysian Low Carbon Cities

3 Establishing Low Carbon Society Scenario On Going Low Carbon Society Research Project at Asia

(Source: National Institute of Environment Studies, Japan)

City and Region

National

Bundit LIMMEECHOKCHAI

Thailand

Jiang KEJUN China

Ho Chin SIONG

Malaysia

Sirintornthep TOWPRAYOON

Thailand

Hak MAO Cambodia

Yutaka MATSUZAWA

Japan

Rizaldi BOER Indonesia

Mikiko Kainuma

Japan

Mohamad Bin SA’ELAL Malaysia

LoCARNet: Low Carbon Asia research Network Research Institutions/ researchers’ network

dedicating directly in LCS policy making process

GHG

emiss

ions

per

cap

ita

Low Carbon World

Developed Countries Energy-Intensive

Lock-ins in Development

Damaging the Economy and Natural System Developing

Countries

Leapfrog-development

59

Launching the “Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet)”

as a central core for providing knowledge

• LCS-RNet/IGES/NIES has been conducting workshops that promote dialogues between policy-makers and researchers in Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia, as well as networking among researchers in this region, to encourage low-carbon growth in Asia.

• During the course of these workshops, the growing importance of research society for low-carbon growth in Asia was strongly recognized.

• Japan proposed the establishment of “Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet)” at ASEAN+3 EMM held in October 2011 in Phnom Penh.

• The launch of the LoCARNet was declared by Minister of Environment at the “East Asia Low Carbon Growth Partnership Dialogue” held in April 2012 in Japan as an element of East Asia Knowledge Sharing Platform for Low Carbon Growth

• Organization in process now

60

Why we need network?

• Urgent needs of science-based climate policy

• Necessity of integration of knowledge ⇒organization of research community • Communication between research and policy ⇒Dialogue and participation

• Specific and common research fields in the region ⇒S-S co-operation

• Still, lack of local capacity and ownership of knowledge

Fukushima

62

63

Disaster Wind

http://energy.gov/news/documents/050611__Joint_DOE_GoJ_AMS_Data_v3.pptx 63

Blessing Wind 64

What I have learned from 311

• Fukushima/Tohoku: – Always behind from so-called “development” send human resources, food, energy to Tokyo – Enrichment of humanity/nature, but…

• Huge challenges on local management – Importance of mayor’s leadership at urgency – Lack of “City Continuity Plan” – Lack of self-independent policy making capacity

and financing mechanism (too much subsidized…)

Towards “Future City” => to be self-sufficient city

Respond to “Inevitable” necessity 1) Setting goals Develop urban system design based on locality such as history, culture and environment 2) Roadmaps Apply the latest knowledge + Create open space with local consultant and global pro bono support 3) Ownership Local leaders’ initiative + local capacity development

=> And to be inspiring city

GIO + AIM =

MRV + NAMAs!!!

Yes!

Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia comes from design and

co-working…

Let’s work together!

Fukushima Conference 2012 will be held on 10th(Sat) and 11th(Sun) November

in Fukushima

Documents

Develop Sustainable Low-Carbon Society Scenarios by ...Passenger transport Freight transport 15 DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012,