Upload
ellery
View
37
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Developing Human System Modules for Regional Climate Models. Jessie Cherry IARC/INE/ARSC@UAF Peter Larsen GSPP/LBNL@UC-Berkeley. Presentation Outline. “Old school” approach to the study of Human Dimensions (HD) of Climate Change; Shortcomings with the “old school” approach; - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Developing Human System Modules for Regional
Climate ModelsJessie Cherry
IARC/INE/ARSC@UAFPeter Larsen
GSPP/LBNL@UC-Berkeley
Presentation Outline
• “Old school” approach to the study of Human Dimensions (HD) of Climate Change;
• Shortcomings with the “old school” approach;
• Some examples of HD modeling;
• Direct integration of HD into regional climate modeling (i.e., “new school”);
• Implementation potential for particular sectors
General Climate-related Modeling Approaches
Source: IPCC, 2007
Past Treatment of Human Dimensions• Second (or third-order) modeling runs;
• Limited use of downscaled physical projections;
• Few examples of model comparison/testing platforms and input/output sensitivity analyses;
• Weighted index, Delphi, and/or subjective approaches are often employed; and
• Stakeholder feedback often occurs later on in the development process, if at all.
Examples of Modeling HD: Alaska
Climate Projections
NCARUAF GI
Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas
$
Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas
Graphs Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20
Tables
Depr.Matrix
Denali
DRM
DCCED
DNR
Others
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
Climate Projections
NCARUAF GI
Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas
Climate Projections
NCARNCARUAF GIUAF GI
Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas
$
Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas
$$
Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas
Graphs Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20
Tables
Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20
Tables
Depr.MatrixDepr.Matrix
Denali
DRM
DCCED
DNR
Others
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
Denali
DRM
DCCED
DNR
Others
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
Denali
DRM
DCCED
DNR
Others
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
DenaliDenali
DRMDRM
DCCEDDCCED
DNR
OthersOthers
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
HD Project: “Estimating Risk to Alaska Public Infrastructure from Climate Change” (Larsen et al, 2008)
Examples of Modeling HD: Alaska
0ºc/32º F
Annual Maintenance Cost ($) orDepreciation Rate (lifespan)
$* Annual Average Temp.
$1
$2
$3$4
27º F 0ºc/32º F
Annual Maintenance Cost ($) orDepreciation Rate (lifespan)
$* Annual Average Temp.
$1
$2
$3$4
27º F
Examples of Modeling HD: California
HD Project:
“Estimating Risk to California Energy Infrastructure from Climate Change” (Sathaye et al, 2009)
Examples of Modeling HD: California
The “old school” de-coupled HD approach:
• creates a strong disconnect between the physical modeling and the climate impacts communities;
• occasionally ignores stakeholder needs for timely policy and decision making;
• often misses important feedbacks between human agents and the climate system; and
• makes it difficult to compare and test alternative modeling techniques.
Past/Current HD Modeling Concerns
• Resource Development• Hazard Response• Freshwater Supply• Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geothermal)• Commercial and Sport Fishing/Hunting• Public and Private Infrastructure• Tourism• Subsistence Harvest• Marine Transport• Human Health
Some Arctic Human Dimensions….
1. Develop Human System Modules directly into the Arctic System Modeling platform;
2. Make these modules portable and transparent between different regional models;
3. Encourage international collaboration;
4. Focus on producing multiple socioeconomic impact measures; and
5. Facilitate model testing, scenario development, stakeholder feedback, etc.
A “New School” HD Modeling Proposal….
• Need not occur at each model time step (e.g., hours vs. planning decades);
• One or two-way coupling may be appropriate depending on the system (e.g., GHG emissions); and
• Socioeconomic data collection and dissemination will need to be substantially improved;
•Quantifying coupled model uncertainty is very important, but difficult to communicate.
Some Thoughts on Climate/HD Model Interactions
Some Thoughts on Communicating Uncertainty in HD Impacts…
Source: Larsen et al (2008)
Three different AOGCMs Monte-carlo Simulation (varied inputs)
More Thoughts on Uncertainty in HD Impact Estimates…
Harvard Economics Professor Martin Weitzman noted in a seminal 2008 paper that fat-tailed structural uncertainty about climate change, coupled with a lack of information about high-temperature damages, can potentially outweigh the influence of discounting in a cost-benefit analysis framework.
• Training and supporting interdisciplinary researchers may be the biggest challenge;
• Pan-Arctic data collection and management is another major challenge;
• Stakeholder engagement is time-consuming and expensive;
• Some research disciplines are further along in the evolution of systems modeling; and
• User-friendly “decision support tools” will need to be developed in close collaboration with stakeholders.
What are the Challenges?
• There are (some) appropriate existing regional HD models;
• We have the computing resources;
• We can attempt to minimize miscommunications between the physical and social scientists across the Arctic;
• It’s interesting and policy-relevant work at the frontiers of research!!!
Why include HD modules directly into an ASM?
Questions?
Additional Information
International Arctic Research Center at UAF: www.iarc.uaf.edu
Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP): www.uaf.edu/accap/
State of Alaska Climate Change Materials: www.climatechange.alaska.gov
E.O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: www.lbl.gov
Goldman School of Public Policy: www.gspp.berkeley.edu
Note: This presentation includes personal views of Peter Larsen.
Climate Change Planning
Walsh & Chapman:
PRISM downscaled multi-model projections of temperature and precipitation for AK under various scenarios of Greenhouse Gas emissions
Integrated Assessment
Definition: any model which combines scientific and socio-economic aspects of climate change primarily for the purpose of assessing policy options for climate change control (Kelly & Kolstad, 1998)
Integrated Assessment Modeling
McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005
Integrated Assessment Models
McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005
Example of Human System Module
Cherry
Goal is to be model independent; work with CCSM and other models/ couplers
Communicating uncertainty
New Scientific Methodology?
Funtowicz & Ravetz, in Ecological Economics, 1991
Arctic human dimensions
• Oil and Gas Module (spill transport)• Rural Resilience (wind power potential)• Coastal Erosion (evolving coastline)• Freshwater (hydropower, water supply)• Marine Fisheries (Bering ecosystem)• Marine Transport (ice cover trajectories)
Ammonium
Euphausiids
Neocalanus
SmallPhytoplankton
Detritus
Smallmicrozooplankton
Largemicrozooplankton
Nitrate
LargePhytoplankton
Pseudocalanus
Iron
14 component ModelNPZD-Benthos
PredationLosses
BenthosBenthicInfauna
Benthic Detritus
BSIERPLower Trophic Level
Ecosystem Model
BSIERPFEAST Higher trophic
level model
NPZ-B-DLower trophic
level
ROMSPhysical
Oceanography
Economic/ecological model
Climate scenarios
BSIERP Vertically Integrated models
Nest
ed m
odel
sBEST
Infrastructure
Impact of Climate Change on Infrastructure study done for Alaska by Peter Larsen and collaborators
Flow Chart of Model Processes
Climate Projections
NCARUAF GI
Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas
$
Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas
Graphs Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20
Tables
Depr.Matrix
Denali
DRM
DCCED
DNR
Others
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
ISER Public Infrastructure Study
Wind Farm Parameterization for WRFAdams & Keith
Modification of the MYJ PBL scheme
Similar work being done commercially by 3TIER, AER, others
MMS-WRF winds 1
MMS-WRF winds 2
MMS-WRF winds 3
MMS-WRF winds 4
Hydropower AEAAEA Energy Atlas, 2007
Ship track
https://rsgis.crrel.usace.army.mil/aedis/
Example of Climate-Related Decision Support