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Development, Demonstration & Development, Demonstration & Dissemination of MonteDissemination of Monte--Carlo Simulation Carlo Simulation Interface for BOAST 98Interface for BOAST 98““BOAST98BOAST98--MCMC””

DOE Cooperative Agreement No. DEDOE Cooperative Agreement No. DE--FC26FC26--04NT1552804NT15528

Presented to:Presented to:PTTC Rocky Mountain RegionPTTC Rocky Mountain Region

Simulation Users GroupSimulation Users Group

Presented by:Presented by:Advanced Resources InternationalAdvanced Resources International

March 17, 2005March 17, 2005Denver, CODenver, CO

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BackgroundBackground

•• Reservoir simulation is industryReservoir simulation is industry’’s primary method for s primary method for integrating geology, geophysics, reservoir characterization, integrating geology, geophysics, reservoir characterization, fluid flow behavior and operational realities for comprehensive fluid flow behavior and operational realities for comprehensive oilfield reservoir management.oilfield reservoir management.

•• However, the historyHowever, the history--matching process can be cumbersome matching process can be cumbersome and resulting forecasts wrought with uncertainty.and resulting forecasts wrought with uncertainty.

•• MonteMonte--Carlo simulation coupled with reservoir simulation has Carlo simulation coupled with reservoir simulation has the capability to evaluate input parameter uncertainty on the the capability to evaluate input parameter uncertainty on the simulation results, and assist in historysimulation results, and assist in history--matching projects.matching projects.

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ObjectivesObjectives

•• Develop interface that enables BOAST 98 users Develop interface that enables BOAST 98 users to probabilistically vary multiple input parameters, to probabilistically vary multiple input parameters, automatically execute the simulator for each automatically execute the simulator for each input file realization, and store the input/output for input file realization, and store the input/output for each run.each run.

•• Incorporate capabilities to: Incorporate capabilities to: –– Evaluate sensitivity of selected output parameters to Evaluate sensitivity of selected output parameters to

each input variableeach input variable–– Compute error between simulated and actual dataCompute error between simulated and actual data

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System Components & StructureSystem Components & Structure

BOAST 98-ReservoirSimulation

MS Access- Results Storage

MS Excel- Input Files

@ Risk- Monte-Carlo

Simulation

BOAST98 - MC

Note: Users should have some knowledge and experience with BOAST98 and @Risk

InterfaceView ResultsError Analysis

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General ProcedureGeneral Procedure

•• Open @Risk & MS ExcelOpen @Risk & MS Excel•• Use preUse pre--designed BOAST98 input file template to designed BOAST98 input file template to

establish input file parameters, select Monteestablish input file parameters, select Monte--Carlo variables and distributions, and select Carlo variables and distributions, and select target output parameters for tornado plotstarget output parameters for tornado plots

•• Test file and save settings to databaseTest file and save settings to database•• Load historical data if availableLoad historical data if available•• Run model selected number of iterationsRun model selected number of iterations•• Compute error function with actual dataCompute error function with actual data

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Interface Development PlanInterface Development Plan

•• Select MonteSelect Monte--Carlo Simulation SoftwareCarlo Simulation Software–– @ Risk@ Risk

•• Develop Alpha VersionDevelop Alpha Version–– Now largely completeNow largely complete

•• Perform Example ProblemPerform Example Problem–– SPE Comparative Solution Project #1 or #9SPE Comparative Solution Project #1 or #9

•• BetaBeta--TestingTesting–– 10 Operators for 3 mos.10 Operators for 3 mos.

•• Finalize & DistributeFinalize & Distribute–– DOE WebsiteDOE Website

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Project ScheduleProject Schedule

2004

Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec

Task 1:

Select MC Software

Task 2:

Alpha Code

Task 3:

Case Study

Task 4:

Beta Testing

Task 5:

Tech Trans

2005

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