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DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW LETTUCE ICE FORECAST SYSTEM FOR YUMA COUNTY
Paul Brown
Mike Leuthold
University of Arizona
BRIEF HISTORY
• Original Lettuce Ice Forecast Program– National Weather Service (NWS)
• Issue Through ~1997• NWS Reorganization (1996-97)
– Closed Yuma Office & Ended NWS Ag Forecasts
• Grower Interest – Request to Reestablish Program
• Request to NWS for Yuma Model• “Search” of Yuma Office Records
– No Model Located– About 9-11
HISTORY CONTINUED
• AZMET Seminar– U of A Atmospheric Science Dept.
• High Resolution Forecast Model• Interested In Agriculture Forecasts
• USDA Specialty Crops Grant – Develop Lettuce Ice Forecast System
• Using High Resolution Forecast Model• Project Funded & Initiated in Oct. 2010
PROGRAM GOALS
1. Provide high resolution temperature and ice forecasts for lettuce producers in Yuma Co.
1. Collect field data consisting of temperature, humidity and wind speed at shelter level, and temperature and leaf moisture at lettuce level to both improve and validate the accuracy of forecasts.
WEATHER MODELSUsed To Forecast Development & Movement of the Atmosphere
Wednesday @ 5pm Thursday @ 5pm
ANATOMY OF A WEATHER MODEL
1. Earth Surface is Divided Into Segments or Grids.
2. Atmosphere Above Each Grid Area Is Then Layered.
3. Observational Data Are Used To Estimate Conditions At Each Grid Point.
4. Model Uses Complex Mathematics Determine How Atmosphere Will Evolve.
WEATHER RESEARCH & FORECAST (WRF) MODEL
This model is presently used by NWS to forecast weather for the region shown above. The model divides the atmosphere into 60 layers, operates on a 12 km (6.2 mile) grid spacing and forecast out to 84 hours (3.5 days).
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA MODIFICATIONS TO WRF MODEL
• Model Core Adjusted For AZ Conditions– Atmosphere– Clouds– Precipitation
• Much Higher Resolution– 1.5 km (0.9 miles) – Handles Complex Topography Better– Better Land Surface Characterization
GRID SPACING/RESOLUTION
Large Grid Spacing
Grid-Wide Topography, Land Use & Initial Conditions
Model Generates Forecast for Grid Region
Current NWS Models
GRID SPACING/RESOLUTION
Smaller Grid Spacing
Better Separation of Land Characteristics
Improved Assessment of Topography & Air Drainage
UA WRF Models
PROJECT SCHEMATIC
Initialize Model Generate Forecast Ground Truth Adjust Model
WRF MODEL COMPUTER MONITORING REFINEMENT
Repeat Process
Provide Accurate High Resolution Winter Temperature Forecasts
PROJECT TIMELINE
YEAR 1
1. Set Up Model for Yuma Co.
2. Prototype Forecasts
3. Install Monitoring Equip.
4. Refine Forecast Model
YEAR 2
1. Operational Forecasts
2. Continue Monitoring
3. Validate Model Accuracy
YEAR 3
1. Operational Forecasts
2. Industry Funded
3. Part of AZMET
PROJECT STATUS
• Forecast Model– Functional & Available Via Web
• Graphic Forecasts• Text Forecasts
– Working on Adjustments
• Monitoring Systems– Functional & Available Via Web
• Graphical Summaries• Text Summaries• Raw Data
GRAPHIC FORECASTS
• Graphic Forecasts For Next 48 Hours– Hourly Maps Providing…
• Temperature @ Shelter Height (2m or 6.5’)• Dew Point @ Shelter Height• Wind Speed & Direction
– Hourly Maps Providing• Surface Temperature (Crop Level)
SHELTER & “SURFACE” LEVELS
Shelter Height (2m or 6’5”)
Lettuce Height (30 cm or 1’)
GRAPHIC FORECAST
• Elevation• Roads• Urban Area• Weather
– Temperature• Color• Text
– Dew Point– Wind Conditions
Shelter Conditions At 6 a.m. on March 9
Shelter Conditions
GRAPHIC FORECASTS
Shelter Conditions At 8 p.m. on March 9
Shelter Conditions
GRAPHIC FORECASTSSurface Temperatures
Forecast for 6 a.m. on March 10th
TEXT FORECASTS
• Text Forecasts For Next 48 Hours– Maximum & Minimum Tempertures– Quantitative Precipitation – Hourly Forecasts Of…
• Shelter Temperature• Dew Point
WEATHER & PRECIPITATION FORECAST
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
Amounts Rather Than Probability
HOURLY FORECASTS (TEXT)
Shelter Temperature, Surface Temperature & Dew Point
Tomorrow Shelter: 45F Tomorrow Surface: 40F
Day 2 Shelter: 45F Day 2 Surface: 40F
INTERNET ACCESShttp://www.atmo.arizona.edu/index.php?section=weather&id=wrf
CLICK
INITIALIZATION
LOCAL MONITORING
• Roll• Dome Valley• US95 & 5E• Yuma Ag Ctr• 14th & G• 18th & F3/4• AZMET
– Yuma Valley– Yuma South– Yuma N. Gila– Roll
Model Improvement/Validation
MONITORING SYSTEMS
Temperature Humidity
Wind Speed
Temperature Leaf Wetness
INTERNET ACCESShttp://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/ls.htm
MONITORING DATA
Temperature, Dew Point and Wind Speed @ Shelter Height
Lettuce Level Temperature, & Dew Point
Leaf Wetness
Graphical Output Update Each Hour
MONITORING DATAText Output Updated Each Hour
INTERNET ACCESSRaw Data Available For Use/Analysis
RESEARCH CHALLENGES
Hea
t
Model Forecast: 16 m
Soil Type, Soil Moisture, Vegetation
Rad
iati
on
Hea
t
Co
nd
ensa
tio
n
?? Lettuce Level 0.3 m
Wind
INTERATIVE PROCESS
Initialize Model Generate Forecast Ground Truth Adjust Model
WRF MODEL COMPUTER MONITORING REFINEMENT
Repeat Process
COLDEST TEMPERATURESLocation Date Shelter Lettuce Level
Roll AZMET Feb 4 21.0F NA
Roll Ice Feb 3 21.5F 20.1F
Dome Ice Feb 4 23.7F 22.2F
Yuma N. Gila AZMET Feb 3 22.8F NA
US 95 & 5E Ice Feb 3 22.9F 18.0F
Yuma Ag Ctr AZMET Feb 3 26.4F NA
Yuma Ag Ctr Ice Feb 3 26.4F NA
14th & G Ice Feb 3 25.2F 20.1F
18th & F3/4 Ice Feb 3 24.7F 18.1F
Yuma South AZMET Feb 3 23.2F NA
EXPANSION OF MONITORING
• Acceptable Within Limits– Strategic: Forecast
Improvement– Costs Must Be Covered
• Equipment• Operations
GROWER MEETINGS
• Feedback on Forecasts/Program
• Forecast & Website Training
• Expansion of Monitoring Program
• Alternate Delivery Systems– Text Msgs– Twitter– Facebook
QUESTIONS???