Development of Conceptual Models for the ARCN Coastal Ecosystems

Workshop

Torre Jorgenson, ABRDiane Sanzone, National Park Service

OBJECTIVES

• Review conceptual models for Central and Southwestern Networks (General vs Specific)

• Discuss sequential steps used to develop coastal models for the Arctic Network

• Review coastal models

Central Alaska Network: Thematic Model

Southwest Alaska Network: Specific Key Components

SWAN Ecosystem Model: Linkages

SWAN Ecosystem Model: Stressors

ARCN Coastal Model DevelopmentWORKSHOP ACTIVITIES• Work within thematic working groups• Partitioned ecological variability at landscape level to

evaluate key processes (e.g. lagoons versus tundra cliffs)

• Developed questions directed toward monitoring of key components and processes

• Create submodels as desired• Developed a consensus of key monitoring components

and processes by group ranking of questionsPOST-WORKSHOP SYNTHESIS• Identified key words that need to be incorporated in

models• Identify model structure (e.g., box and arrow, landscape

graphic)• Model graphics

Examples of QuestionsQuestion 1: How are nutrients cycled in the “open” and “closed” coastal lagoon systems of CAKR and BELA ? Are nutrient levels changing? (11) Attribute (Component/Process): nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur Potential Driver/ Stressor of Change: various

Question 5: What is the effect of ice cover change/ open ocean season on shoreline ecosystems? (22)

Attribute (Component/Process): timing of sea ice melting and snow packPotential Driver/ Stressor of Change: climate changePotential Measures: thickness/ density of ice

Question 9: How is the abundance, diversity and productivity of species living in coastal habitats changing? (18)Attribute (Component/Process): bird abundance, diversity and reproductive capacity; changes in composition and productivity of coastal vegetation; changes in coastal invertebrates; changes in rare and endemic species populations; expansion of native species into the parks; presence and distribution of invasive/ exotic species Potential Driver/ Stressor of Change: climate change; forage pressure on vegetation

LONGER OPEN WATERSEASON

More use by cetacea,Spotted, bearded seals,birds

ProductivityIncr. pelagic?Decr. Epontic?Match/mismatch?

PagophyllicPinnipeds

Changed preycommunity

Critical habitatChanges!

Decreasedsubstrate

Increased erosion(longer season)

Climate influenceOn terr. Environ.

Submodel for Nearshore Water

Brandon Kelly 2004

Open Lagoon Systems of ARCN

Freshwater Food Web+

Marine Food Web

Megafauna presentLagoon Does Not Freeze to Bottom

Due to High Conductivity

SUMMER

WINTER

Freeze

Thaw

Marine Food Web

Terrestrial Food Web

Mechanistic Shoreline Erosion Model with Feedbacks

Owen Mason

Conceptual Modeling

Key Components and Processes

+Linkages and Interactions

+Food Webs

+Global, Regional, and Local

Stressors

=

One Honking

MonitoringChallenge

Summer

DON

DOC

NO 3

Therm okarstSalin ity

E elgrass

Tem perature

W ind

O rga nic M at

G round ice

A q u a t ic C o n ta m in a n tsO rg a n ism s

W a terS ed im en ts

P O4

A ctiv e D unes

I nactive Dunes Tida l

F lats

P re c ip i ta t io n

C lam s, Ch iro n o m id s, Iso p o d sPo lych etes, Am p h ip o d s, Mysid

Sea L evel

Wave Energy

S ea

S edim en t

D ischarge

Winter

ARCN Coastal Ecosystems Overview ModelBarrier Island and Lagoon Ecosystems

Rocky Coast Ecosystems

Tundra Cliff and Sandy Shore Ecosystems

Delta Ecosystems

Potential Regional and Anthropogenic StressorsATMOSPHERIC

Air Temperature Storminess

Snow Cover Precipitation Nitrogen Input Contaminants Albedo

OCEANOGRAPHIC

Sea Level Storm surges

Sea Ice Fetch Length Wave Energy

GEOMORPHIC Shoreline Erosion Barrier Island Migration

Marine Sedi. Transport Land Sediment Deposit. Dune Formation/Scouring Thermokarst Active Layer

HYDROLOGIC

Precipitation Evaporation

River Discharge Lake Extent Nutrient Load Sediment Load

ANTHROPOGENIC

Airborne Pollution Mining Activity Oil and Gas Activity Subsistence Harvest

Recreation Transportation Noise Land Use Regs. Villages, Inholdings Pollution

BIOTICVegetation, InvertebratesFish, Birds, Mammals

Population Abundance Range Shifts Community Structure Foodweb

Exotic Species

Produced for ARCN-NPS by M. T. Jorgenson and D. M. Sanzone

Arctic Food Web

Inuit Tapiriit

Kanatami

Terrestrial Model Development

• Consider whether ecosystem variability needs to be partitioned (e.g. rocky alpine vs. ice-rich lowland; boreal vs. tundra)

• Develop monitoring questions• Identify key components and/or processes• Identify linkages among ecosystem

components• Prioritize monitoring variables (“vital signs”)• Emphasize content rather than modeling

mechanics