Development of Energy Storage Tehnologies

value through information.

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1 June 2013, Renewable Energy World Europe 2013

Dirk Briese

Vienna, June 4th, 2013

Renewable Energy World Europe 2013 conference

„Development of Energy Storage Technologies as Key Element in the Energy Turnaround“


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1.  Introduction 2.  Framework conditions

3.  Status quo of electricity production and storage in Germany 4.  Capacity development until 2030 5.  Technology overview 6.  Market of electricity storage facilities 7.  Conclusion

Agenda


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1.  Introduction Database

The following studies provide the basis for the speech:

•  Energy storage: Opportunities and risks for energy suppliers, manufacturer and consumers

•  E-Mobility – from a leading market to a mass market? - Potentials, challenges, strategies

•  Network services in Germany until 2025 (4th edition): Customer requirements, market development and trends

•  The market for combined heat and power systems (CHPs) in Europe until 2020: Potentials, compe-tition, chances and risks of combined heat and power generation

trend:research •  in the national and international energy and waste

industry since 1997 with 50 employees •  550 studies •  more than 900 references, 90 % market coverage


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Opportunities

•  A claim of EEG*-remuneration and of EEG-direct marketing is also possible for stored electricity from renewable energies.

•  In the case of feedback into the same network the stored electricity from renewable energies is exempt from the EEG apportionment.

•  New storages (in case of feedback not in annual peak load times) for 20 years (modernized pumped storage for 10 years) are exempt from the fees for network use.

•  The combination of storage facilities and EEG-facilities is useful for exploiting the maximum promotion.

Risks

•  Shortly the EEG will be revised again, it is therefore not certain that the current conditions also apply to future projects.

•  Efficiency losses in the storage lead to losses of feedback into the network that will not be reimbursed.

•  By the absence of a regulated “capacity market" for decentralized storage capacities there is still no consistent marketing over the entire year guaranteed.

2.  Framework conditions Impact of legal regulations in the electricity storage market

Against the backround of the initial situation and in the context of the legal framework conditions there are significant opportunities and risks in the market for electricity storage:

*Renewable Energies Act


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Anteil Erneuerbarer Energien an der Bruttostromerzeugung

3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5%7% 7%

8% 7%9%

10%11%

14%15%

16%17%

20%22%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Pro

zent

Share of renewable energies in the gross electricity generation in Germany

Perc

enta

ge

3.  Status quo of electricity production and storage Renewable energies in Germany


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Source: trend:research based on the database of the BMU

3.  Status quo of electricity production and storage Power generation in Germany

Struktur der Stromerzeugung in Deutschland 2012Gesamte Stromerzeugung: 617 TWh

Steinkohle19%

Braunkohle26%

Erdgas11%

Kernkraft16%

Heizöl2%

Sonstige4%

Wasserkraft3%

Biomasse6%

Photovoltaik5%

Müll1%

ErneuerbareEnergien22%

Windenergie(onshore)7%

Windenergie(offshore)0,001%

Stromerzeugung Erneuerbare Energien: 135 TWh

Structure of electricity generation in Germany 2012 Total electricity generation: 617 TWh

Natural gas

Nuclear energy Oil

Others

Wind energy Biomass

Waste

Wind energy

Brown coal

Hard coal

Electricity generation renewable energies: 135 TWh

Renewable energies

Waterpower Hydropower

Photovoltaic


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* pr

e-an

noun

cem

ent o

f the

BM

U a

nd B

DE

W

** p

rogn

osis

of t

rend

:res

earc

h ba

sed

on th

e da

taba

se o

f the

BM

U, B

DE

W a

nd

tren

d:re

sear

ch

Entwicklung der installierten Leistung der Erneuerbaren Energien in Deutschland 1990 bis 2013 in MW

010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.00090.000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012*

Inst

allie

rte

Leis

tung

[MW

]

Wasserkraft Windenergie (onshore) Windenergie (offshore) Biomassebiogener Anteil des Abfalls Photovoltaik Geothermie

**

Hydro power

Biogenic share of waste Wind energy (onshore)

Photovoltaic Wind energy (offshore)

Geothermal energy Biomass

Development of installed capacity of renewable energies in Germany 1990 until 2013 in MW

Inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty [M

W]

„Energiewende“

3.  Status quo of electricity production and storage Installed capacity of renewable energies until 2013


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3.  Status quo of electricity production and storage Regional distribution of renewable energies

Photovoltaic No. of plants Capacity (MW) Feed-in (GWh)

Source: trend:research based on BDEW 2012; AEE 2013

Locations and expansion of PV plants 2013

Wind energy No. of plants Capacity (MW) Feed-in (GWh)

Locations of German wind parks


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4.  Capacity development until 2030 Generation mix forecast

Development of power generating capacities in megawatt (MW) until 2030- Scenario trend:research -

Nuclear power

Ignite

Hard coal

Natural gas

Heating Oil

Wind energy

Photovoltaics

Biomass

Hydro power

Ignite

Hard coal

Natural gas

Wind Energy

Photovoltaics

Biomass

Hydro energy

Geothermal energy

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Existing capacities

Stock capacities

Development of electricity generation capacities by installed net bottleneck capacity until 2030 (in MW)

- trend:research scenario -


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Most technologies are developed, but not market-ready yet.

Source: Average value based on BMWi; Fraunhofer ISE; ZSW

5.  Technology overview Characteristics of energy storage technologies

elektrisch

elektro - chemisch

mechanisch

SMES

Li - Ionen

Bleiakkumulatoren

Redox

-

Flow

Ni - Cd

1 kW 10 kW 100 kW 1 MW 10 MW 1 GW 100 MW

Pumpspeicher

Capacity

CAES

Power - to - Gas Superkondensator

Schwungradspeicher

Brennstoffzelle*

*Not defined as energy storage **Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage

NaS

elektric

electric - chemical

mechanical

SMES**

Li - Ionen

Lead-acid

Redox

-

Flow

in d

evel

opm

ent

deve

lope

d

Nickel-Cadmium mat

urity

1 kW 10 kW 100 kW 1 MW 10 MW 1 GW 100 MW

Pumped-storage

Marketability of different energy storage technologies

Tech

nica

l dev

elop

men

t

Storage design:

Compressed air energy storage

Power - to - Gas Supercapacitor

Flywheel storage

Fuel cell*

Sodium–sulfur

The energy storage technologies show different storage capacities, stages of development and discharging periodes


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5.  Technology overview Potential of energy storage systems

The following technologies will be used for for energy storage from fluctuating feeds in 2020

Aktuell und im Jahr 2020 geeignete Technologien für die Speicherung von Strom aus fluktuierender Einspeisung

(Alle Befragten; n=61)

80%

52%

33%

64%

66%

74%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Pumpspeicher

Batteriespeicher

Power-to-Gas

Spe

iche

rtec

hnol

ogie

n

[%]2013 2020 Mehrfachnennungen möglich; N=124

Pumped-storage plant

Ene

rgy

stor

age

tech

nolo

gy

Battery

Power-to-gas

Current and future usability of technologies for energy storage from fluctuating feeds (until 2020)

(n=61)

Multiple choice;


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Forecasted electricity demand and fed-in capacity from renewable energies on a typical summer day:

Due to the expected high installed photovoltaic capacity, the electricity demand will be covered or exceeded at lunchtime in the summer months.

5.  Technology overview Electricity demand in 2030

Eingespeiste Leistung und Stromnachfrage1. bis 31. August 2030

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

100.000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Leis

tung

[in

MW

]

Erdgas (abgeregelt)

Steinkohle (abgeregelt)

Braunkohle (abgeregelt)

Kernenergie (abgeregelt)

Photovoltaik (Überschuss)

Windenergie (Überschuss)

Biomasse (Überschuss)

Laufwasser (Überschuss)

Erdgas (residual)

Steinkohle (residual)

Braunkohle (residual)

Kernenergie (residual)

Photovoltaik (Bedarf)

Windenergie (Bedarf)

Biomasse (Bedarf)

Laufwasser (Bedarf)

Erdgas (must run)

Steinkohle (must run)

Braunkohle (must run)

Kernenergie (must run)

Last

Use of electricity excesses by using storages

Excess of electricity

Fed-in capacity and electricity demand From 1st to 31st August 2030

Cap

acity

(in

MW

)


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6.  Market of electricity storage facilities Drivers and barriers in the energy storage market

Markthemmnisse für den Markt für Stromspeichertechnologien(Alle Befragten; n=88)

49%

42%

32%

20%

18%

10%

9%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

(Investitions-)Kosten

Politik/Rahmenbedingungen

Fehlende Wirtschaftlichkeit

Grenzen bei Technik undInfrastruktur

Kein Markt vorhanden

Kein Grund, Speicher zunutzen

Unaufgeklärter Markt

Keine Einschätzungmöglich

Mar

kthe

mm

niss

e

[%]Mehrfachnennungen möglich; N=161

(Investment) Costs

Policy/framework conditions

Lack of profitability

Limits in technology and infrastructure

No existing market

No need for using storages

Unenlightened market

No estimation possible

Multiple answers

Market barriers in the market for electricity storage (All respondents; n=88)

Mar

ket b

arrie

rs


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6.  Market of electricity storage facilities Description of scenarios

Development of the market for electricity storage in two exemplary scenarios:

Scenario 1: „Reference scenario“ (on the basis of the BMU-lead scenario) • Few new central power plants are realized • The promotion of renewable energies is slightly reduced • The network expansion leads to no restrictions in the development of distributed generation • Medium pace of research and development of energy storage – the economical use of individual storage technologies is possible due to the framework conditions • Objectives of the Federal Government to the development of renewable energy can be achieved Scenario 2: „Capacity market“ • The promotion of renewable energy remains in a similar form • Remuneration of the available power favors the maintenance and the construction of new efficient and flexible conventional power plants (mainly gas-fired power plants) • Large stationary respectively central electricity storage facilities also benefit by participating in the capacity mechanism • The implementation of a capacity market ensures long-term framework conditions that create market incentives in the storage market and promote the willingness to invest and the dynamics in this market as a whole.

see following slide


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Development of installed capacity: pumped-storage power plants in Germany until 2030

6.  Market of electricity storage facilities Pumped-storage power plants

Kapazitätsentwicklung der installierten Turbinenleistung (in MW) für Pumpspeicherkraftwerke bis 2030

- Gesamt -

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Turb

inen

leis

tung

in M

W

Referenzszenario KapazitätsmarktReference scenario Capacity market

Development of installed turbine capacity of pumped-storage power plants until 2030

Inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (i

n M

W)


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Market volume: pumped-storage power plants in Germany until 2030

6.  Market of electricity storage facilities Pumped-storage power plants

Marktvolumen für den Bau von Pumpspeicherkraftwerken (in TEUR) bis 2030

- Marktvolumen in Drei-Jahres-Schritten, Investitionsanrechnung bei Fertigstellung -

0

1.000.000

2.000.000

3.000.000

4.000.000

5.000.000

6.000.000

2013-2015 2016-2018 2019-2021 2022-2024 2025-2027 2028-2030

Mar

ktvo

lum

en in

TEU

R

Referenzszenario Kapazitätsmarkt

Market volume of pumped-storage power plants (in TEUR) until 2030 - Market volume in three-year-increments,

investment counting upon completion –

Mar

ket v

olum

e (in

TE

UR

)

Reference scenario Capacity market


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6.  Market of electricity storage facilities Power-to-Gas

Development of installed capacity: Power-to-Gas in Germany until 2030

Kapazitätsentwicklung der installierten Leistung (in MW) durch Methanisierung und Wasserstoffspeicherung bis 2030

- Gesamt -

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Inst

allie

rte L

eist

ung

in M

W

Referenzszenario KapazitätsmarktReference scenario Capacity market

Development of installed capacity of Power-to-Gas facilities until 2030

Inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (i

n M

W)


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Market volume: Power-to-Gas in Germany until 2030

6.  Market of electricity storage facilities Power-to-Gas

Marktvolumen für die Stromerzeugung durch Methanisiserung und Wasserstoffspeicherung (in TEUR) bis 2030


0

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

2013-2015 2016-2018 2019-2021 2022-2024 2025-2027 2028-2030

Mar

ktvo

lum

en in

TEU

R


Mar

ket v

olum

e (in

TE

UR

)


Market volume of Power-to-Gas facilities (in TEUR) until 2030 - Market volume in three-year-increments,

investment counting upon completion -


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Development of installed capacity: stationary battery storage in Germany until 2030

6.  Market of electricity storage facilities Stationary battery storage

Kapazitätsentwicklung der dezentral eingesetzten stationären Speicher (in MW) bis 2030

- Gesamt -

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Inst

allie

rte L

eist

ung

in M

W


Development of installed capacity of stationary battery storage until 2030

Inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (i

n M

W)



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6.  Market of electricity storage facilities Stationary battery storage

Market volume: stationary battery storage in Germany until 2030

Marktvolumen der dezentral eingesetzten stationären Speicher (in TEUR) bis 2030


0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000

1.800.000

2.000.000

2013-2015 2016-2018 2019-2021 2022-2024 2025-2027 2028-2030

Mar

ktvo

lum

en in

TEU

R


Market volume of stationary battery storage (in TEUR) until 2030 - Market volume in three-year-increments,

investment counting upon completion -

Mar

ket v

olum

e (in

TE

UR

)



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Development of total installed storage capacity in Germany until 2030

6.  Market of electricity storage facilities Total installed capacity

Entwicklung der Speicherleistung im Vergleich (in MW)- ohne Elektromobilität -

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Spei

cher

kapa

zitä

t in

MW


Development of total installed capacity (in MW) - without electric mobility -

Inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty in

MW



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Development of total storage capacity in Germany until 2030

6.  Market of electricity storage facilities Total storage capacity

Entwicklung der Speicherkapazität im Vergleich (in GWh)- ohne Elektromobilität -

0

50

100

150

200

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Spei

cher

kapa

zitä

t in

GW

h


Development of total storage capacity (in GWh) - without electric mobility -

Sto

rage

cap

acity

in G

Wh



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Market volumes of storage technology types in Germany until 2030.

6.  Market of electricity storage facilities Market volumes

Marktvolumina (kumuliert) nach Art der Speichertechnologien bis 2030 in Mio. EUR- ohne Gasspeicher -

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

Mechanische und ElekrtischeEnergiespeicher (PSW/CAES)

Batteriespeicher Power-to-Gas

Mar

ktvo

lum

en in

Mio

. Eur

o


Mar

ket v

olum

e in

Mio

. EU

R

Market volumes (cumulative) of storage technology types in Germany until 2030 in mio. EUR

- without gas storage -

Mechanical and electrical energy storage Battery storage Power-to-gas



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7.  Conclusion Future of Germany's electricity storage market

•  There is great potential in Germany for the use of electricity storage to ensure the network stability and the efficient use of electricity surpluses from fluctuating feed.

•  By now, only pumped-storage power plants are applicable for such a large-scale deployment. But at the moment even this technology is losing its business model due to differences in peak and off-peak electricity prices.

•  Battery storage and Power-to-Gas technologies will be applicable to a comparable degree at the earliest in 2020. For now they can not compete with pumped-storage power plants.

•  There is high potential for significant cost reductions especially in the field of Lithium-Ion and Redox-Flow-Batteries that will bring further dynamics in the market: until 2030 there is expected a cost reduction of 25 to 50 percent.

•  At the moment, primarily pilot projects are realized in the fields of large batteries and power-to-Gas facilities for further researches and to increase the know-how.

•  Currently, in particular the market for small storage applications (e. g. in combination with PV systems for prosumers) is developing for battery storages (especially Lithium-Ion), also with regard to electric mobility.


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Development of Energy Storage Tehnologies