Development of India by Komilla Chadha

8/6/2019 Development of India by Komilla Chadha

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The Recent Development of India by Komilla Chadha

IndiahasperformedconsistentlywellinrelationtodevelopedcountrieslikeUKso

farasGDPisconcerned. InthelastfiveyearsthelowestGDPIndiahasever

experiencedwas5.8% (2009),thisisspectaculargiventheongoingglobal

recessioninthisperiod. However,factorslimitingIndiaseconomicgrowthstillexistandinthisreportwewilllookattwostrategiesusedtopromotegrowthand

counteractthesefactors.

OneofthemostcommonproblemwithalldevelopingcountriesnotjustIndia,is

poorinfrastructure. Developingcountriesarenttypicallyabletoafordnew

machineryorinvestinotherformsofinfrastructuree.g. roads. Indiaisoneofthe

countriesmoreadverselyafectedranking86thoutof139forqualityofoverall

infrastructurebelowChina (50th) andBrazil (62nd). Accordingtoonesource,the

agriculturalindustryitselfloses500,000,000,000Rupees (6,846,690,915) ayear

duetoalackofadequatepostharvestinfrastructure. UnlessIndiameetsitsneeds

itwillstruggletoachieveabove9%GDPifinfrastructureisnotimproved.

Asaresult,theIndiangovernmenthasopenedInfrastructureDebtFundwhichis

createdusingcontributionsfrominsurancecompanies,pensionsfunds,foreign

funds,sovereignwealthfundsandbigbanks. Thiswillallowmoneytobespenton

infrastructureoveralongperiodandmeettheUSD $500billioninfrastructure

needsofthecountry. Thefundwillprovidemoneytofirmstopaytheirdebtstothe

banksandopenatideoffreshloanstobusinesses. However,itseemsthatmany

largedomesticagenciesarereluctanttoparticipateinthisschemeandgiventhat

thefundswillonlybeprovidedtoPPPs (PublicPrivatePartnerships) whohavebeen

underoperationforayear,theefectsmaybelimitedasitseemsthatsmall

businessesaretheoneswhostrugglethemost. Furthermore,tryingtoregulate

wherethefundinggoestoimpliesthattherewillbebureaucracyinvolvedwhich

meansfurthermoneyandtimewillneedtobespenttoputthisoperationinto

optimumaction.

Likemanyofthetigersofourglobaleconomy,Indiatoohasastrongexport

culture,inDecember2010itsexportsreachedagrandvalueofUSD $22,500

million. Yetevenafterattemptingtoimplementoutward-lookingpoliciesand

achievinglargeexportrates,Indiastillhadatradedeficit (USD $2,600millionin

Dec10) . IfwetakeChina,whichissupposedlyeconomicallysimilartoIndia,we

canseeastarkdiference,Chinahasatradesurplusof$13.1billion (Dec10). This

ishinderingeconomicgrowthinIndiabecausedemand-ledgrowthismadeupof

fourfactors: consumption,investment,governmentspendingandnetex/imports

andatradedeficitactsasanegativeinthisformulasubsequentlyhindering


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economicgrowth. Oneofthereasonswhichhasbeensuggestedforthisproblemis

Indiasgrowingmiddleclass. Indiasmiddleclass (50millionpeople) is

exponentiallygrowingallthetimeandthispushesdemandforimportssuchas

expensivecarsandfancyhandbagswhichareproducedincountrieslikeChinaand

Germany.

Ratherthantacklingthisproblemofatradedeficit (whichinturnhindergrowth) by

usingprotectionistpolicies,Indiaseemstobemovingtowardsoutward-looking

policies.JustyesterdaynewswasreleasedthattheIndiangovernmentissettingan

exporttargetof$450billionby2013. Thegovernmentplanstodothisby

implementingfourstrategies: retainingmarketshareindevelopedcountries,

diversifyingintonewmarkets,investingmoreintheR&Dofnewtechnologiesand

improvingIndiasreputationintheglobalmarketbyraisingdomesticstandards,

promotionalcampaignsandqualityenforcements. Inthelastweekwehavealreadyseensomeevidenceofthesestrategiesproposedbythegovernment. Indiahas

signedatradeagreementwithJapanwherebytarifsonparticularproductssuchas

pharmaceuticalswillbeeradicatedandJapanwillcontributetoIndias

InfrastructureDebtFund. ThiswillhelpIndiadiversifybytappingintonewmarkets

andpromoteexport-ledgrowth. ThisagreementhasbeenendorsedbytheWorld

TradeOrganisationsayingthatnotonlywillithelpIndiabuthelpJapantoo.

Conventionalwisdomtellsusthatoneofthebestwaysforaneconomytogrowis

throughsupply-sidepoliciessuchasimprovementineducation,reducingincome

taxandmanymore. Thereasonwhythesearesopopularnotonlybecausethey

increaseaggregatesupply,whichmeansthatthecountrycanexperiencegrowth

withtheriskofhighinflation,andincreaseaggregatedemandasaresultduetothe

positivemultiplierefect. Thebigproblemthoughfordevelopingcountrieslike

Indiaistobeabletofundthesepoliciesandthisisnoteasywhenthecountryis

ladenwithdebtwhichmakesup82%ofGDP (Feb2010).

Oneofthemostcommonwaysinwhichtoreducedebtindevelopingcountrieshas

beentoseekdebtrelief. However,forIndiaitappearstobeadiferentstoryand

thismaybebecauseIndiareliesmoreongovernmentbondsthanloansfrom

developedcountries. Asaresultthegovernmentisutilisingfiscalpoliciestoreduce

thedebtwhichhascreatedabudgetdeficitinthecountry. Inlastyearsbudget

IndiasFinanceMinisterPranabMukherjeeproposedtoincreaseexcisedutiesona

rangeofitemsincludingautomobilesandanincreaseinimportdutyongoldfrom

Rs200pergramto300per10gramsasameansofraisingtaxrevenue. Goldisa

mineralwhichisveryimportanttothepeopleinIndia,itnotonlyholdsculturalandtraditionalsignificancebutnowformanyisusedasaneconomicasset. Thismeans

thatdemandforgoldisinelasticandbyraisingimportdutynotonlyisIndia


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encouragingtheproductionofgoldinitsownlandbutcreatingmoretaxrevenue

withoutanysignificantlossofdemand. Ibelievethisisoneofthebeststrategies

Indiaincludedinitsplantoreducetheirbudgetdeficitbecausetheopportunity

costofthispolicydoesnotseemverylarge.

WithoutadoubtthereareawidevarietyofotherfactorswhichcrippleIndias

economicgrowthbutIfeltthesethreewerethemostimportant. Thisisbecausethe

firstproblemofinfrastructuredeficiencyisonewhichhasbeenwithussincethe

studyofeconomicsbegan,thisisoneproblemthatcountriesfinddiculttosolve

andIfeelthatthecreationoftheInfrastructureDebtFundalthoughnotperfector

oneIadmireitisonewhichisinnovative. Thesecondlimitingfactorwasatrade

deficitandthisIthinkisonewhichisthemostimportantfactorwithoutadoubt

becauseitisonewhichuptilltodayafectsthegrowthofdevelopedcountriesand

developing. IfIndiacanmanagetocontrolthisnowthenonlywilltheybetomaintainitatastablerateandlooktoaprosperousgrowth-filledfuture. Thethird

factordiscussedwasthedebtwhichhascausedabudgetdeficitinIndiaandthisis

aproblemwhichweintheUKarealltoofamiliaraboutandthereforeIfelt

examininganothercountrystakeonthiswouldhelpustoevaluateourownbudget

plansputforwardbythecoalition.


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