Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions

SYMPOSIUM LCS Research ProjectSYMPOSIUM LCS Research ProjectHO CHIN SIONG

July 4 2011 Puteri Pacific Hotel Johor bahruJuly 4, 2011 Puteri Pacific Hotel, Johor bahru

JST JICA 2010JST‐JICA 2010  Technical Cooperation Project

UTM IRDA MGTC and JPBD Semanjung MalaysiaUTM, IRDA, MGTC and JPBD Semanjung Malaysia  Kyoto U, Okayama U, NiES and AIM team Japan

O i R i ifi t diO i R i ifi t diOn going  Region specific studies On going  Region specific studies Communication and feedbacks of LCS study to real world Communication and feedbacks of LCS study to real world 

2

ISSUES AND CHALLENGESRapid urbanization and affluent lifestyle

Relatively high carbon intensity d d f il f ldependence on fossil fuel 

High Private car ownership

Low density development and urban sprawlsprawl

Low efficiency appliancesLow efficiency appliances

3

Contents

1• Background Issues and Challenges• Background Issues and Challenges

bl l lbl l l2

• Current Sustainable Policies in Malaysia• Current Sustainable Policies in Malaysia

• Case Study – Iskandar Malaysia (Q tit ti d lli )

• Case Study – Iskandar Malaysia (Q tit ti d lli )3 (Quantitative modelling)(Quantitative modelling)

4• Conclusion – Scenarios towards Low Carbon society

• Conclusion – Scenarios towards Low Carbon society

4

1 IntroductionThe Need to Develop Low Carbon Societies 

Malaysia Commitmenth b k b kSpeech by Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, Prime Minister

“… Malaysia proposed a voluntary reduction up to 40% in terms ofemission intensity of GDP by the year 2020 compared to 2005 levels.”17th December 2009

Global Citizens + ResponsibilitiesGlobal Citizens + ResponsibilitiesFor the Earth, for our future generation

Green as New Consumer Culture, New Market,New Growth

Money SavingMoney SavingEnergy conservation and renewable energy

2 Sustainable Development ‐ chronologyMoving Towards Sustainable and Low Carbon Human Settlement

CURRENT GREEN POLICIES IN MALAYSIA

National Green Technology Policy 2009‐ Energy, Building , Water and waste management and Transportation

Malaysia Budget 2010‐2011y g

‐ Developing Putrajaya and Cyberjaya as pioneer township in green technology

National policy on Climate Change

‐ Roadmap for Malaysia to achieve 40% reduction of GHG emission by 2020

Green Neighborhood Guidelines – JPBD 2010

‐Smart location, Neighbourhood pattern and design, Green fInfrastructure.

Green Township Framework –Guide Towards LC Cities 2010‐MIP

7

CURRENT SPATIAL PLANNING IN MALAYSIA AND ENERGY CONSIDERATIONAND ENERGY CONSIDERATION

National Physical Planning(NPP2005)National Physical Planning(NPP2005)National Urbanization Policy

Development plans

• State Structure PlansL l Pl• Local Plans

Development Control/ Planning approvalDevelopment Control/ Planning approval

Green Neighborhood Guidelines – JPBD 2010Green Neighborhood Guidelines  JPBD 2010

8

Malaysian Low Carbon Cities

2 Sustainable DevelopmentLow Carbon Framework: GBI Township Tool – Point allocation

GBI Township Tool Points Allocation Chart + GBI Township Classification

(Source: Greenbuildingindex Sdn Bhd)

Malaysian Low Carbon Cities

2 Sustainable Development – JPBD guidelinesLow Carbon Framework: Green Neighbourhood Planning Guidelines

About Green Neighbourhood Planning Guidelines

Planning guideline for the state and local government to formulatepolicies , strategies and regulations to promote green neighbourhood;

Introduced by Federal Department of Town and Country Planning (JPBD)

To provide design guidance for industries to develop greenneighbourhood.

Neighbourhood planned and designed in an integrated manner with

Green Neighbourhood

Neighbourhood planned and designed in an integrated manner withthe priority given to the protection and consumption of naturalresources, application of green technology and recycling. It seeks topreserve the environment, reduce the ecology footprint, reduce the

(Source: Federal Department of Town and Country Planning)

production of carbon emission, improving public health, safety aswell as general welfare of city dwellers.

Malaysian Low Carbon Cities

2 Sustainable Development‐ Policy guidelinesLow Carbon Framework: Green Neighbourhood Planning Guidelines

8 Planning Principlesg pi.   Priority given to sustainability and environment of aspect;ii.  Creating sustainable communities living in harmony, healthy and interact 

with each other;iii C t hi h accessibilit en ironmentiii. Create high accessibility environment;iv.  Comfortable human scale neighbourhood design;vi.  Containing the features of affordable housing;vii.  Provide Green Infrastructure/ “green infrastructure”;

l d l

10 General Guidelines

viii. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE).

i.   Site selection and site planningii.  Application of green technology in building developmentiii. Walkability and connectivityiv.  Green networkv.   Safe neighbourhoodvi.  Short distance to transitvii. Green infrastructureviii.Mixed‐use development

(Source: Federal Department of Town and Country Planning)

viii.Mixed use developmentix.  High densityx.   Green community network

Malaysian Low Carbon Cities

2 Sustainable Development – Kettha & MIP

Low Carbon Cities Framework and Assessment System

About Low Carbon Cities Framework and Assessment System

Developed by Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Waterp y y gy, gy(keTTHa) with supported from Malaysia Green TechnologyCorporation and Malaysian Institute of Planners.

A assessment tool to assist local authorities, developers anddesigners in assessing whether development carried outwithin the city contributes towards reduction or decrease inGHG.

Low Carbon City

A city that comprises of societies that consume sustainablegreen technology and relatively low carbon energy ascompared with present day practice to avoid adverse climate

(Source: Low Carbon Cities Framework and Assessment System)

change

Malaysian Low Carbon Cities

2 Sustainable DevelopmentpLow Carbon Framework: Low Carbon Cities Framework and Assessment System

(Source: Low Carbon Cities Framework and Assessment System)

DATUM: KLKuala Lumpur Architecture Festival 2011

Malaysian Low Carbon Cities

2 The Rise of Sustainable Development

Low Carbon Framework and Assessment System

•Urban Environment•Urban Transportation

(Source: Low Carbon Cities Framework and Assessment System)

Urban Transportation•Urban Infrastructure•Building

Take actions that are compatible with the principles of

Green City or/and Low Carbon Cities?Take actions that are compatible with the principles of sustainable development, ensuring that the development  needs of all groups within society are met. SUSTAINABLE g p yDEVELOPMENT

Make an equitable contribution towards the global effort toMake an equitable contribution towards the global effort to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of  GHG at a level that will avoid dangerous climate change. EQUITABLE

Demonstrate a high level of energy efficiency and use low‐carbon energy sources and production technologiescarbon energy sources and production technologies 

EE and RE ( TECHNOLOGY)

Adopt patterns of consumption and behavior that are consistent with low levels of greenhouse  gas emissions. SOCIETY/ 

15

g g /LIFESTYLE 15

Kaya Identity : CO2 emission and related variablesrelated variables

Per capita activity

Energy intensity

Carbon intensity

TOTAL Activity Energy CO2AMOUNT

Activity

Pop

Energy

Activity

CO2

EnergyCO2 emissions * Pop * * *

di changrate total

ifferential

integral

CHANGE RATE

& SPEED

Activity

Pop

Energy

Activity

CO2

EnergyCO2 emissions * Pop * * *

& SPEED

Changerate

Changerate

Changerate

Changerate

Changerate

16

Transition LCS MalaysiaTransition LCS ‐Malaysia

MALAYSIA:BACKGROUND

MALAYSIA:KEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORRIDORSCORRIDORS

IMNCERNCER

SCORESCORESDC

ECER

1 MALAYSIA CHARTING DEVELOPMENT 1 MALAYSIA CHARTING DEVELOPMENT ISSUES AND VISION

• The 2011 Budget, with the aim to position Malaysia

TOWARDS A HIGH INCOME NATIONTOWARDS A HIGH INCOME NATIONg , p y

as a developed and high-income economy with inclusive and sustainable development, will continue to ensure that the most conducive socio-economic environment is created through the Government Transformation Programme (GTP) to underpin growth.

The 10The 10thth Malaysia PlanMalaysia Plan Building an environment that Building an environment that enhances Quality enhances Quality

of Lifeof LifeN b i dN b i d t itt it New urbanism and New urbanism and compact citycompact city

Growth concentrated in Growth concentrated in urban conurbationurban conurbation Safe city Safe city initiativesinitiatives Developing climate resilient growth Developing climate resilient growth policypolicy Adaptation measuresAdaptation measures Mitigation measuresMitigation measures Incentives for Incentives for RE and EERE and EE Improving Improving Solid waste managementSolid waste management

1919

p gp g gg Conserving forestConserving forest Reducing Reducing emission to improve air qualityemission to improve air quality

Case studyIskandar Development Region

2,216 km2

Population 1,353,200

IskandarDevelopmentDevelopment

Region

The Iskandar Malaysia VisionEconomic Growth

“To develop Iskandar Malaysia into a strong andTo develop Iskandar Malaysia into a strong and sustainable metropolis of international standing”

( ) billi billibilli

Year 2005 Projected (2025)

Per capita GDP (RM) 51 765 108 850108 850

GDP (RM) 70 billion 325.5 billion325.5 billion

Per capita GDP (RM) 51,765 108,850108,850

E l t 0 610 illi 1 428 illi1 428 illi

P l i 1 4 illi illiilli

Employment 0.610 million 1.428 million1.428 million

21

Population 1.4 million 3.1 million3.1 million

Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS)4. Modeling

Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) - A tool to designing social accounting matrices, energy balance tables, GHG emission and reduction tables of the target societies -

Labor ModuleLabor 

Number of workers

•Export•Import ratio

•Commuting OD •Labor participation ratio•Demographic composition•Average number of family occupants

•Government expenditure•Labor productivity

National/Regional land plan

Macro‐economy and Industry Module

Population and Household Number Module

Time‐use and Consumption Module

demandWage Average 

working time

PopulationPrivate consumptionOutput

Income

Consumption Module

Transport M d l

Commercial ld d l

Number of household•Breakdown of 

consumption

•Floor area per output

•Population distribution•Trip per parsonT diModuleBuilding Module

E D d & GHG

Passenger and freight transport demand

Floor area of commercial buildings

Energy demand

output •Transport distance•Modal share

LULC emission dynamics module

Energy Demand & GHG Emissions Module GHG emissions

Energy demand

•Energy service demand generation unit•Energy efficiency•Fuel share•Emission factor

Exogenous variables and parameters

Main endogenous variablesModule

IFl f d i bl

Planning Tools for LCS (2010) 

22

InputFlow of endogenous variables

MethodologyMethodology23

4. Energy Demand By Sector12 000 Freight transport

Energy demand in IM is 1 44210 000

12,000 Freight transport

Passenger transportIndustry

10,93610,936

232%

projected to increase from 3,286 ktoe (toe: tonne oil equivalent) in 2005 to 10,936 

790

1,442

8,000

10,000

e) .

y

Commercial

Residentialktoe in 2025 for the BaU case (BaU: business as usual)

8346,000

8,000

man

d (k

toe

5,9155,9155,9155,915

Industry is expected to be

6,635 253 834

4,000

nerg

y de

m

3,2863,286Industry is expected to be 6,635 ktoe and will maintain the largest share of 61%. 

978 6851 733

3,494359572

2,000

En

240 1,091 649 382

978 6851,733

02005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

24

2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

12 000 Coal4. Energy Demand by Energy Sources

1,84410 000

12,000Hydro power

Solar & wind power

61

1,844

8,000

10,000

e) .

powerBiomass

Natural gas

Increase in demand for natural gas (3.2 times) the consumption in

3,854

9646,000

8,000

man

d (k

toe

Petroleumthe consumption in 2005.

44719333

964

4,000

6,000

nerg

y de

m

Energy sources such as biomass, solar and wind power will be

4,9781,209 3,69460289

2,000

,000

E wind power will be newly introduced for primary energy in 2025 CM

1,729788

0

, CM case.

2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM 25

4. GHG Emission By SectorGHG Emissions in IM are projected to increase from 12,552 ktoe CO2 (2005) to 45,484 ktoe CO2  (2025 

4 07045,000

50,000 Freight transport

Passenger t t

45,48445,484

BaU)

I d t S t ill

1,672 4,070

35 000

40,000

.

transportIndustry

Commercial Industry Sector will increase 4.1 times in total as compared to 2004 in GHG emission (54%of

24,83230,000

35,000

s (k

tCO

2)

GHG emission . (54%of total GHG emission in 2025 BaU)

4471,481

20,000

25,000

emis

sion

s

19,58919,58919,58919,589

GHG emissions per capital : 9 3 tonnes of CO /capita

7,195 10,8971,015

447

1,615 10,000

15,000

GH

G

12,55212,552

: 9.3 tonnes of CO2 /capita (2005) to 15.1 tonnes /capita (2025 BaU ),  with CM will be reduced to 6 5

1,4687,715

2,972 2,4193,802

6,035

0

5,000

CM will be reduced to 6.5 tonnes of CO2/capita. 26

02005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

5. Potential Mitigation in IM50 000

5521

623 45,000

50,000

Transport demand management

ns

777 3510

5521

35,000

40,000

kt-C

O2) Fuel shifting

Effi i i t (b ildi )n R

educ

tion

262%

45483 4463

10831

25,000

30,000

duct

ions

( Efficiency improvement (buildings)

Efficiency improvement (transport)Em

issi

on

57%262%

19162

4463

15,000

20,000

mis

sion

s/re

Efficiency improvement (industry)

Efficiency improvement (power

52%

12552 5,000

10,000

GH

G e

m

Efficiency improvement (power sector)

GHG emissions

02005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

27

BuildingsLow Carbon Cities Policy Package

•Environmental performance standard and evaluation of buildings•Adjustment of tax rate of fixed asset tax

•Environmental performance standard of equipments•Environmental labeling•Education and information service

•Subsidy to introduce photovoltaic power generation system

g

•Low interest loans to investment to energy efficient buildings

•Education and information service•Green purchasing policy

generation system

T t & L d I d t•Urban planning•Transport planning•Tax rate adjustment to fixed asset

•Environmental performance standard of vehicles•Tax rate adjustment to

•Subsidy to investment to energy efficient equipments

Transport & Land use Industry

•Tax rate adjustment to fixed asset•Investment to public transport energy efficient vehicles

•Promotion of bio fuel•Promotion of technology transfer

•Incentive to introduce energy efficient equipments & buildings•Incentive to introduce renewable energy

•Controlling urban growth & choice of transport mode

Energy efficiency improvement

Lowering CO2intensity

Transport demand control

gy

Mitigation of GHG emissions from Iskandar Malaysia

improvement intensity demand control

Mitigation Measures29

Env’lEnv’l

Implement Implement Comply . EnforceComply . Enforce Env lEnv l

Planning Planning & & MngtMngt

Social & Social & CulturalCultural

Com & Com & Industry Industry  Talent

F dF d

Comply . Enforce Comply . Enforce Monitor . ReviewMonitor . Review

Cultural Cultural DevDev

yyPlanning Planning & Dev& Dev

Workforce;  Low 

carbon lifestyle

Value‐added 

products & services

CDPCDPFed Fed PolicyPolicy

GreenGreen‐‐focusedfocused IntegratedIntegrated

T tT tEconomic Economic 

DD

NPPNPP IRDA’s IRDA’s BPsBPs

TODs

focused focused AgendaAgenda

Transport Transport DevDev

Modes Infrastructure 

LCSLCSGreen 

EconomyDPsDPs

SWMSWMRE & RE & ResourcesResources Reuse

Corridors Movements

FIT             

Land Use Land Use PlanningPlanning

ResourcesResources Reuse Recycle Reduce Compost

EE blgs & areas 

Rainwater harvesting

Decarbonising /UD Phased 

Dev & DC

development/ Development 

Process

Synergy of  LCS research and application in Synergy of  LCS research and application in Iskandar MalaysiaIskandar MalaysiaIskandar MalaysiaIskandar Malaysia

Research:Research:

InstitutionsInstitutionsPolicyPolicy

Actions on the Actions on the ground: ground: 

See and TouchSee and TouchInstitutionsInstitutions

AcademiaAcademia (IRDA)(IRDA) LCSLCS

BPsBPs

IRDA Blueprints that promote Low Carbon Society

3IM Vision: “A Strong, Sustainable Metropolis of International Standing”

IRDA’s expectations from the LCS ProjectIRDA’s expectations from the LCS Project

• How will the LCS Scenarios help to reduce IM’s CO2 emissions between 30‐50% by 2025?y

• How do we translate the results from the research i li i d l h binto policies and proposals that can be implemented? REAL SOLUTIONS

• How will the results enhance our blueprints? Identify GAPSIdentify GAPS

•• CDP Review 2015CDP Review 2015

Immediate Things to do 

• A Dozen Actions towards IM 2020• A Dozen Actions towards IM 20201• A Dozen Actions towards IM 2020• A Dozen Actions towards IM 2020

2 • Reviewing Details IM blueprints• Reviewing Details IM blueprints2 • Reviewing Details IM blueprints• Reviewing Details IM blueprints

I f k h ld i hI f k h ld i h3

• Input from stakeholders in the workshop 

• Input from stakeholders in the workshop 

Concluding remarksg• Quantification from LCS modeling  assist b d d fbetter understanding on impact of proposed actions, sub actions and programs.

• Enable planners/ Local authorities to• Enable planners/ Local authorities to incorporate stakeholders input into town 

ki i h it t fmaking exercise hence  commitment from them.

• Green cities or Local carbon cities need to have a LOW CARBON SOCIETIES mindset/have a LOW CARBON SOCIETIES mindset/ behaviour.

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Thank you For your Kind AttentionThank you For your Kind Attention