Development of the air pollution forecast system VENUS and its validation (in Japan)

Seiji SUGATA ＊ , Toshimasa OHARA(National Institute for Environmental Studies)

Jun-ichi KUROKAWA （ Japan Environmental Sanitation Center ）Masamitsu HAYASAKI (Toyama University ）　

VENUS (Visual atmospheric ENvironment Utility System)　　

1. Introduction2. System outline 2.1 User interface 2.2 System core (thanks to prof. Byun) 2.3 Configurations3. Validation

【 photochemical oxidant 】　　・ rise of concentration (particularly in western Japan) in decades　　 and extension of high concentration area recently　　・ possible cause = long-range transport

【 public concern 】　　　 ・ increase of public concern about atmospheric environment (but, next to the radiation dose from food and soil since this year)

→ 　 NIES has been developing a forecast system that includes the influence of long-range transport and has horizontal resolution for urban scale pollutions

Needs for air pollution forecast system in Japan

【 PM2.5 】　　・ air quality standard for PM2.5 was enacted in 2009 (only SPM before that since 1973)

35ug/day15ug/year

【 local governmental officers 】　　　　　　・ Need information to issue a warning (difficult with increasing influence of long-range transport)

Public releaseMay.2010

Apr. 2008

Jun. 2009

Jun. 2009

May.2010

Jun. 2009

East Asia

Japan

Click area name to see forecast in the area

VENUS user interface: top page

Six areasin Japan

Species for public is now photochemical Ox and NO2.Sulfate aerosolin planning.

　　　↑Can choose hourlyon the day and the next

OxNO2

VENUS user interface: Each area page

　　　 ↑animationdisplay

↑download

　　 ↑

simultaneousdisplay forone day

VENUS(Visual atmospheric Environment Utility System) Features and Specification

-　 combination of Met. model RAMS ＋ air quality model CMAQ

VENUS Core: Coupling of RAMS ＋ CMAQ

Idea: Prof. Itsushi UNO and prof. Daewon Byun in mid 1990s

Interface (MCIP for RAMS) development: since 1999 I stayed EPA/NERL for 1 year (1998-99) to develop it with supervised by DaewonMCIP for RAMS has been developed: up to RAMS 4.4 and CMAQ 4.4 but no update recently

VENUS development: since 2004

and VENUS development history

Jointly developed by　・ Ministry of the Environment　・ Central Res. Inst. of Electric Power Industry　・ local government environ. institutesAssisted by　・ Fujitsu FIP corporation　・ Japan Weather Association

internal use/test

Public open 2008 for Asia-Japan-greater Tokyo area 2009 other 2 areas 2010 other 3 areas

VENUS(Visual atmospheric Environment Utility System) Features and Specification

-　 combination of Met. model RAMS ＋ air quality model CMAQ

-　 nudging with GPV weather forecast data by Japan Met. Agency

-　 Emissions: EAGRID (in Japan) and REAS （ others in Asia ）

wind, temp., pres.,water vapor,precipitation,cloud water,soil water,,,

advection, diffusion,radiation,surface process,large scale condensation,cumulus convection,,,,

advection, diffusion,cumulus convection,gaseous/aqueous reactions,

aerosol reaction,dry/wet depositions,,

JMA weather forecast data　 wind, temp., humid.

Topography,Surface data Emission data

EAGRID & REAS

RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling system)（ Colorado State Univ. ）

CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system)(U.S.A. EPA)

Flowchart of VENUS

Concentrationdeposition

Input (everyday)

FiguresVisualizationVENUS HP

Input (fixed)Input(month, weekday/end)

Output （ data ）Output (figures)

MCIPfor RAMS

Table　1.　List　of　the　RAMS　(ver.　4.4)　configurations　Option　 Configuration　Topography　scheme　 Average　orography　Surface　roughness　scheme　

Subgrid　scale　orographic　roughness　

Lateral　boundary　condition　

Klemp/Wilhelmson　scheme　

Shortwave　radiation　type/　Longwave　radiation　type　

Two-stream　parameterization　developed　by　Harrington　

Cumulus　parameterization　 　

Simplified　Kuo　convective　scheme　

Horizontal　diffusion　 Smagorinsky　formulation　

Vertical　diffusion　 Mellor-Yamada　level　2.5　scheme　

　

Table　2.　List　of　the　CMAQ　(ver.　4.4)　configurations　Option　 Configuration　Advection　 PPM　Vertical　diffusion　 eddy　Gas-phase　chemistry　 SAPRC99　Chemistry　solver　 EBI　Aerosol　 AERO3　Cloud　and　aqueous　chemistry　

RADM　

　

Configurations for RAMS and CMAQ in VENUS

VENUS(Visual atmospheric Environment Utility System) Features and Specification

-　 combination of Met. model RAMS ＋ air quality model CMAQ

- 3 level nesting to cover East Asia region into urban areas in Japan East Asia 100km⇔ Japan 25km ⇔ each local area 5km

-　 nudging with GPV weather forecast data by Japan Met. Agency

-　 Emissions: EAGRID (in Japan) and REAS （ others in Asia ）

Colors in maps=NOx emissionDots=air pollution monitoring stations Tokyo

Fukushima

Tsukuba

100km mesh 25km mesh

3 level nested domain: Asia (100km) – Japan (25km) – Each area (5km)

VENUS(Visual atmospheric Environment Utility System) Features and Specification

-　 combination of Met. model RAMS ＋ air quality model CMAQ

- hourly concentration of Ox and NO2 on the day and the next day update every 9 o’clock in the morning (local time)

- 3 level nesting to cover East Asia region into urban areas in Japan East Asia 100km⇔ Japan 25km ⇔ each local area 5km

-　 nudging with GPV weather forecast data by Japan Met. Agency

-　 Emissions: EAGRID (in Japan) and REAS （ others in Asia ）

- on NIES supercomputer system (scalar system)

JMA/GPV　data　(84　hours　forecast)

<UTC>

<Localtime>

9:00 20:00

9:00

Calculated　at　night　

2　day　forecast(48h)

GPV　data(weather　forecast)acquisition

15:00

JMAcalculation

Schedule

3:00

Day 0 Day 1Day -1

UpdateHP

Validation of VENUS comparison of Ox in May and Aug. 2009 between the result of VENUS and the observation data at air pollution monitoring stations

Comparison is made for the following three cases

for four local domains in Japan

Japan25km mesh Local 5km mesh

May 2009 ○ ×

Aug. 2009 ○ ○

Colors in map=NOx emissionDots=air pollution monitoring stations

Monitoring time for NO,NO2,Ox > 90%NO/NOx≦0.2

FourDomainsForvalidation

Comparison of horizontal distribution For high Ox event from 8th to 12th in May 2009 (Left ： observation, Right: VENUS)

11

10

9

8/May

Ox concentration on May2009

Thick line ：　 obs.Thin line ：　 simulation　（ 25km ）

Daytimepeaks arenot so badButlow conc.at nightsterrible

Potential ozone （ O3+NO2 ）

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

8月 日本域 25km

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

5月 日本域 25km

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

茨城

栃木

群馬

埼玉

千葉

東京

神奈

川

新潟

富山

石川

福井

山梨

長野

岐阜

静岡

愛知

三重

滋賀

京都

大阪

兵庫

奈良

和歌

山

福岡

佐賀

長崎

熊本

大分

宮崎

鹿児

島

8月 各地域 5km

Corr. NMB NME関東関西 中部九州

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

茨城

栃木

群馬

埼玉

千葉

東京

神奈

川

新潟

富山

石川

福井

山梨

長野

岐阜

静岡

愛知

三重

滋賀

京都

大阪

兵庫

奈良

和歌

山

福岡

佐賀

長崎

熊本

大分

宮崎

鹿児

島

8月 各地域 5km

Corr. NMB NME関東関西 中部九州

　 Black:Correlation coefficient　 Red: NMB （ obs. - cal. ）　 Blue: NME

Local domain (5km ) Aug. 2009

Japan domain (25km ) Aug. 2009Japan domain (25km ) May 2009

west 30 prefectures east

Skill scores for prefecture mean hourly Ox between obs. and VENUS

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

5月日本域 25km

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

8月日本域 25km

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

茨城

栃木

群馬

埼玉

千葉

東京

神奈

川

新潟

富山

石川

福井

山梨

長野

岐阜

静岡

愛知

三重

滋賀

京都

大阪

兵庫

奈良

和歌

山

福岡

佐賀

長崎

熊本

大分

宮崎

鹿児

島

8月 各地域 5km

Corr. NMB NME関東関西 中部九州

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

茨城

栃木

群馬

埼玉

千葉

東京

神奈

川

新潟

富山

石川

福井

山梨

長野

岐阜

静岡

愛知

三重

滋賀

京都

大阪

兵庫

奈良

和歌

山

福岡

佐賀

長崎

熊本

大分

宮崎

鹿児

島

8月 各地域 5km

Corr. NMB NME関東関西 中部九州

Japan domain (25km ) May 2009 Japan domain (25km ) Aug. 2009

Local domain (5km ) Aug. 2009

Skill scores for prefecture daily 95 percentile Ox between obs. and VENUS

　 Black:Correlation coefficient　 Red: NMB （ obs. - cal. ）　 Blue: NME

west 30 prefectures east

Summary・ NIES and colleagues developed air pollution forecast system, VENUS.・ validation for Ox so so reproducibility for daytime high concentration poor for low concentration at night

Next work・ All Japan one domain with 5km・　 Sulfate aerosol also public

Future works・ Models update （ RAMS4.4+CMAQ4.4→WRF+CMAQ? ）

・ emission update etc.

Thank you for your attention

Table　1.　List　of　the　RAMS　(ver.　4.4)　configurations　Option　 Configuration　Topography　scheme　 Average　orography　Surface　roughness　scheme　

Subgrid　scale　orographic　roughness　

Lateral　boundary　condition　

Klemp/Wilhelmson　scheme　

Shortwave　radiation　type/　Longwave　radiation　type　

Two-stream　parameterization　developed　by　Harrington　

Cumulus　parameterization　 　

On　

Horizontal　diffusion　 Smagorinsky　formulation　

Vertical　diffusion　 Mellor-Yamada　level　2.5　scheme　

　

Table　2.　List　of　the　CMAQ　(ver.　4.4)　configurations　Option　 Configuration　Advection　 PPM　Vertical　diffusion　 eddy　Gas-phase　chemistry　 SAPRC99　Chemistry　solver　 EBI　Aerosol　 AERO3　Cloud　and　aqueous　chemistry　

RADM　

　

Parameters Domain１ Domain２ Domain３

Horiz. resolution 100km 25km 5km

Horizontal grid numbers

66x55 70x70 42x52 （関東、関西）72x107 （中部）77x77 （九州）67x117 （東北）72x72 （中国四国）

Vertical thickness 150-1800m 150-1800m 33-1800m

Vertical layer number

21 21 27

Vertical expantion 12 12 12

Maximum time step 60s 15s 4s

http://www-gis.nies.go.jp/

Environmental GIS HP