25 JUNE 2012

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE

WEST PHILIPPINE SEA

PH 200M EEZ AND

CONTINENTAL SHELF

I. BAJO DE MASINLOC (SCARBOROUGH SHOAL)

Spratlys Group Of Islands

Scarborough Shoal

FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY

PH BASELINES (RA 9522)

PH 200M EEZ AND CONTINENTAL SHELF

BAJO DE MASINLOC

Kalayaan Island Group (KIG)

Scarborough Shoal

FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY

PH BASELINES (RA 9522)

Palauig

Hainan Dao

Parola Is. **

Shibeshanjiao

*Relative Distance source: DENR-NAMRIA in Figure 6, Foreign Service

** Nearest Distance to KIG

Amid the Bajo de Masinloc stand-off, several myths were generated: Tension in the South China Sea was allegedly caused by Philippine articulation (Philippine policy shift: Arroyo vs. Aquino Administration) Chinese aggressive policy in the WPS (SCS) is caused by the transition in Chinese leadership

II. MYTHS ON THE WPS (SCS) TENSION

The problem in the WPS (SCS) is not the tension per se. The tension is caused by something. Therefore, the source which causes the tension is the real problem in the WPS (SCS) The source of the tension is not the

articulation of the Philippines. The Philippines is articulating because

it feels the tension, and that tension is being brought right into its doorstep.

II. MYTHS ON THE WPS (SCS) TENSION

PH BSL

PH200M

Reed Bank

Wood Bank

Southern Bank

Amy Douglas Bank

FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY

CHIGUA REEF

LEN DAO REEF

Prior to 1995, China was in CHIGUA & LEN DAO REEF, which is about 185M from Palawan

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.0019

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

032004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

US  ($B)  China  Military  expenditure  in  constant  2010  US$B.  1994-­‐[2012]  

www.sipri.org  

20.31  

PH BSL

PH200M

Reed Bank

Wood Bank

Southern Bank

Amy Douglas Bank

PANGANIBAN REEF

FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY

China Occupies Panganiban/ Mischief Reef

1995

By 1995-98, China was in PANGANIBAN REEF, about 130M from Palawan

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.0019

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

032004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

US  ($B)  

www.sipri.org  

China  Military  expenditure  in  constant  2010  US$B.  1994-­‐[2012]  

20.88  

PH BSL

PH200M

Wood Bank

Southern Bank

Amy Douglas Bank

FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY

REED BANK

By 2010, China was asserting sovereignty over RECTO BANK, about 85M from Palawan

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.0019

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

032004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

US  ($B)  

www.sipri.org  

China  Military  expenditure  in  constant  2010  US$B.  1994-­‐[2012]  

87.73  

PH BSL

PH200M

Reed Bank

Wood Bank

Southern Bank

Amy Douglas Bank

FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY

A3

A4

By 2011, China was on AREAS 3 & 4, about 30 & 60M, respectively, from Palawan

China urges Philippines to cancel plan to bid out Area3

& Area 4 04 Jul 2011

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.0019

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

032004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

US  ($B)  

www.sipri.org  

China  Military  expenditure  in  constant  2010  US$B.  1994-­‐[2012]  

129.27  

PH BSL

PH200M

Reed Bank

Wood Bank

Southern Bank

Amy Douglas Bank

FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY

By 2012, China was sighted in SCARBOROUGH SHOAL, 124M from Zambales

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.0019

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

032004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

US  ($B)  

www.sipri.org  

China  Military  expenditure  in  constant  2010  US$B.  1994-­‐[2012]  

~143  

Philippines-China Stand-off in Bajo de Masinloc April 2012

III. 2011 CHINA FISHING BAN (QUADRANT 1)

WEST PHILIPPINE

SEA 12N Lat Line

Scarborough Shoal

Spratlys Group of Islands

Reed Bank

113E Long Line

PACIFIC OCEAN

III. 2012 CHINA FISHING BAN (QUADRANT 1 + QUADRANT 2)

WEST PHILIPPINE

SEA

Lat 23-09-42.60 Long 117-31-37.40

Lat 21-54-15.00 Long 120-50-43.00

Near S of Hengchun (Taiwan)

Near SW of Shantou, Guangdong (China)

Scarborough Shoal

Spratlys Group of Islands

Reed Bank

12N Lat Line

PACIFIC OCEAN

III. EXPANDED CHINA FISHING BAN? (Q1 & Q2) + (Q3 & Q4)?

WEST PHILIPPINE

SEA

Lat 23-09-42.60 Long 117-31-37.40

Lat 21-54-15.00 Long 120-50-43.00

Near S of Hengchun (Taiwan)

Near SW of Shantou, Guangdong (China)

Scarborough Shoal

Spratlys Group of Islands

Reed Bank

12N Lat Line

PACIFIC OCEAN

III. PASSAGE THROUGH PHILIPPINE WATERS?

WEST PHILIPPINE

SEA

Lat 23-09-42.60 Long 117-31-37.40

Lat 21-54-15.00 Long 120-50-43.00

Near S of Hengchun (Taiwan)

Near SW of Shantou, Guangdong (China)

Scarborough Shoal

Spratlys Group of Islands

Reed Bank

PACIFIC OCEAN

PHILIPPINES

INDONESIA

CHINA

TAIWAN

PALAU

JAPAN

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

MALAYSIA

BRUNEI

IV. CHINA STRATEGY: WATER GAIN USING 9-DASH LINE

HISTORICAL CLAIM ON THE 9-DASH LINE

Scarborough Shoal

Spratlys Group of Islands

Reed Bank

PHILIPPINES

INDONESIA

CHINA

TAIWAN

PALAU

JAPAN

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

MALAYSIA

BRUNEI

IV. CHINA STRATEGY: FULL 200M EEZ IN SCS FEATURES

REED BANK AS PART OF THE ADJACENT WATERS OF NANSHA ISLANDS

Scarborough Shoal

Spratlys Group of Islands

200M PROJECTED ON SCARBOROUGH SHOAL

Reed Bank

PHILIPPINES

INDONESIA

CHINA

TAIWAN

PALAU

JAPAN

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

MALAYSIA

BRUNEI

Scarborough Shoal

Spratlys Group of Islands

Reed Bank

V. CONCLUSION SCENARIO 1

PHILIPPINES

INDONESIA

CHINA

TAIWAN

PALAU

JAPAN

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

MALAYSIA

BRUNEI

Scarborough Shoal

Spratlys Group of Islands

Reed Bank

V. CONCLUSION SCENARIO 2

C H IN ESE LAK E

PHILIPPINES

INDONESIA

CHINA

TAIWAN

PALAU

JAPAN

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

MALAYSIA

BRUNEI

Scarborough Shoal

Spratlys Group of Islands

Reed Bank

V. CONCLUSION SCENARIO 3

PHILIPPINES

INDONESIA

CHINA

TAIWAN

PALAU

JAPAN

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

MALAYSIA

BRUNEI

Scarborough Shoal

Spratlys Group of Islands

Reed Bank

V. CONCLUSION SCENARIO 3

25 JUNE 2012

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE

SOUTH CHINA SEA

END OF PRESENTATION