DfE Statistical First Release – 23 Oct 2014

The DfE published the ‘Statistical First Release’ of the 2014 results at the end of last month. You can follow the link below to examine the report which comprises an overview document and a number of multi-tab spreadsheets with the data against various criteria.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/provisional-gcse-and-equivalent-results-in-england-2013-to-2014

This is the first comprehensive set of comparable results for last year and should provide some understanding as to how well we did given the apparent confusion caused by the various changes applied to the KS4 tests which Sarah outlined at the FGB meeting at the end of September.

The summary document describes the changes which applied for 2014 i.e. the reduced points rating for BTEQ certificates, the concentration on ‘core’ academic subjects and the exclusion from performance ratings of second attempts and re-sits. It goes on to state that year on year comparison of the results cannot be made because of these factors – but does of course show comparisons nonetheless.

Usefully, some of the figures for 2014 are provided on both the ‘old’ 2013 methodology and the ‘new’ 2014 methodology and I’ve included a summary table of English and Maths progress to illustrate. I also include here some charts showing regional and Local Authority comparisons with our results superimposed. There are probably about 50 separate spreadsheets available so I’ve only picked out the few that seemed of interest.

The data released is broken down to local authority level but does not reveal comparisons between schools so we will still have to wait until January to find out how we did against the local schools.

The chart above shows a comparison of Expected Progress ( Per cent of pupils making at least 3 levels of progress) in English and maths for the last three years but with 2014 shown both under the new rules described above and those from prior years. You can see that these changes have depressed the results by about 2.4%.

The results are also split by gender and you can see that there is a disadvantage of about 5.4% between an all-boys population and standard mixed gender in English and 1.9% for maths.

Strangely, the year on year change for English actually shows a small improvement from 2013 to 2014 (71.6% to 72.1%) – this has subsequently been rationalised as being due to fewer pupils being presented for their English exams in Year 10 under the new rules and thus performing better in Year 11. Maths in contrast shows a significant reduction in Progress performance this year of over 5% - our own reduction roughly mirrors this.

Sandbach School English 2014

71%

Progress (% 3LOP) in English by Region - 2014Pe

r cen

t Pup

ils a

chie

ving

exp

ecte

d Pr

ogre

ss (3

LOP)

This gives some idea of the regional variations of Progress in English with our figure shown for comparison.

Progress (% 3LOP) in English by Local Authority - 2014Pe

r cen

t Pup

ils a

chie

ving

exp

ecte

d Pr

ogre

ss (3

LOP)

Sandbach School English 2014

(71%)

Similarly, looking at the local authorities across the North West, we can see how we compare across the region. Of course, the LA figures shown are averages across the authority which means that there will be many schools above the average figure. Typically, the schools against which we ‘compete’ are the higher performing schools such as Holmes Chapel, Alsager, SHS ,Congleton HS and their results may well be noticeably higher than ours. Also, the figures here are for both boys and girls not an all boys population so there will be roughly a 6% difference against us.

Cohort KS2 Score

Expe

cted

Pro

gres

s (%

)

Percentage Making Expected Progress in English Vs Cohort Point Score KS2 (Cheshire East and West 2013)

Sandbach School 2014

Sandbach School 2013

Fallibroome 2013Outstanding

Congleton High 2013Good

Eaton Bank 2013Requires Improvement

Alsager 2013Good

Holmes Chapel 2013Outstanding

To make this point here are some 2013 progress results plotted against the Cohort KS2 score (i.e. the performance of the pupils at year 6 primary.) Our 2014 result has been plotted against this background.

Amber diamonds are schools at ‘Requires Improvement’ Ofsted rating - others are ‘Good’ or better. I’ve also included sixth form schools from Cheshire West as well

The Alsager 2014 progress figure of 84.3% (under the ‘new’ rules) indicates a very strong improvement from 2013 although I have not plotted it here as we don’t know their KS2 score for 2014.

Sandbach School Maths

2014

Per c

ent P

upils

ach

ievi

ng e

xpec

ted

Prog

ress

(3LO

P)Progress (% 3LOP) in Maths by Region - 2014

Here is the equivalent chart for maths against regional averages which clearly shows to be noticeably above ‘average’.

Progress (% 3LOP) in Maths Cheshire East by Year- 2014

The chart shows the Progress percentage for maths over the past four years for Cheshire East and with our equivalent figure superimposed. Note the decline between 2013 and 2014 for both us and Cheshire East. This change is mirrored to about the same extent at regional and national level.

Cohort KS2 Score

Expe

cted

Pro

gres

s (%

)

Percentage Making Expected Progress in Maths Vs Cohort KS2(2013)

Sandbach School 2013 - 80%

Sandbach School 2014 - 73%

Eaton Bank 2013Requires Improvement

Congleton High 2013Good

Sandbach High 2013Outstanding

Alsager 2013Good

This is the equivalent chart for maths and shows schools from both Cheshire East and Cheshire West.

Again I’ve not shown Alsager at 76% as we don’t know their KS2 score as yet.