DfT register of Business Critical Models

The Macpherson Review of the quality assurance of government models classed a model as business critical where:

• the modelling drives essential financial and funding decisions

• the model is essential to the achievement of business plan actions and priorities

• errors could engender serious financial, legal, reputational damages or penalties.

The table provides a list of the Business Critical Models held and used within the Department and its Arm’s Length Bodies in

September 2018. The next external update of the list will be in September 2019.

Model Number Model Name Brief description 1 Values of travel time savings and

reliability Models will be developed to estimate values of travel time savings, reliability and other related factors.

2 National Transport Model Cost Benefit Analysis Tool

To apply cost benefit analysis to scenarios modelled in the National Transport Model (NTM). Outputs are an Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) table for the scenario modelled versus the baseline.

3 WITA (Wider Impacts Transport Appraisal)

WITA (Wider Impacts in Transport Appraisal) is a computer program to estimate the wider impacts of transport schemes that are not part of conventional transport user benefit appraisal.

4 TUBA (Transport Users Benefit Appraisal)

TUBA undertakes economic appraisal for multi-modal transport study.

5 TAG Data Book The Data Book provides key values that were previously included in tables in WebTAG guidance units.

6 DIADEM (Dynamic Integrated Assignment and Demand Modelling)

A generic demand modelling package that allows practitioners to more quickly set up consistent variable demand models.

7 The National Trip End Modelling suite (NTEM)

A model used to input travel demand forecasts into the National Transport Model and other transport models.

8 National Transport Model (NTM). Note: the NTM is composed of a series of sub-models.

The model is used to provide the Department’s road traffic and emissions forecasts.

9 Coastguard Simulation Model The CG Simulation Model was developed to support the restructuring of HM Coastguard.

10 Tactical Deployment Tool A decision support tool.

11 The Trip End Model Presentation Program (TEMPRO)

A software package that presents the National Trip End Model data set (NTEM) in the public domain.

12 Equality Monitoring Tools Access, R and Excel applications to help ensure the data quality, automate analysis and help in the writing of Equality Monitoring reports for the DfT family.

13 Air Travel Trust (ATT) Fund – Cash Flow Model

This model tracks and forecasts the balance of the Air Travel Trust Fund.

14 Matrix Charging Model The matrix charging model is used to calculate the Police Service Agreement (“PSA”) charges for the Network Rail, train operating companies and train freight companies that fund the British Transport Police (“BTP”). The matrix charging model is run twice a year to calculate a provisional charge and the actual charge.

15 The aviation model The model forecasts aviation passenger demand, air transport movements and carbon emissions. It can also output estimated user benefits attached to an airport capacity scheme.

16 ULEV Car CBA Model The Ultra Low Emission Vehicle (ULEV) Cost Benefits Analysis (CBA) model is an Excel model used to assess and monetise the costs and benefits of different ULEV uptake scenarios up to 2050.

17 Biofuels Model A model used to generate cost benefit estimates for biofuels policy and wider renewable energy policy decisions.

18 Electric Car Cost model (ECCo) The ECCo model is a tool used to produce projections of Ultra Low Emission Vehicles (ULEV) costs and uptake to 2050. The central part of ECCo is a consumer choice model. The model outputs are used to help formulate ULEV policy, and as inputs into other models.

19 Fleet Fuel Efficiency Model An Excel model containing large matrices breaking down the car fleet in each year (and its fuel efficiency performance) by vintage. Similar for the van model.

20 Rail finance Long-Term Forecast (LTF) Model is updated thrice-yearly and produces a long-term (>10 years) forecast of the financial position for DfT’s Rail Executive, at the level of individual rail franchises and projects. The model is used frequently and is well-embedded in the working of Rail Executive.

21 Powersteering PowerSteering is a custom off the shelf (COTS) programme and project management package that has been adapted to improve the way the Highways England Major Projects (MP) Directorate centrally manage their project information.

22 Roads Authority Asset Valuation System (RAAVS)

The RAAVS model provides the valuation system used to provide a value for the infrastructure assets of Highways England.

23 Quarterly and annual accounts model This spreadsheet-based model is the main quarterly and annual accounts production tool. The information from this model is published annually.

24 Supplemental accounts tools This model includes a set of tools and models used by the Finance & Business Services Directorate in support of the quarterly and annual accounts model.

25 Severn River Crossing Loan Repayment Model

This spreadsheet-based model calculates the outstanding loan, interest and accumulated debt for the Severn River Crossing.

26 DBFO payment/forecast models These models calculate the payments for all DBFO contracts.

27 Roadworks Estimator This model generates estimates of highways works to inform the calculation of the financial cost of roadworks and the delay cost to the customer for feasibility studies. It contributes to any early decisions about scheme viability.

28 Benchmark Estimating Model Benchmark generates estimates of costs for major schemes and therefore informs any decisions about scheme viability.

29 Lower Thames Crossing traffic model The Lower Thames Crossing (LTCv2) traffic model is a traffic model created to generate the forecasts of traffic that will use the LTC scheme upon opening and during the design life of the scheme.

30 A303 Stonehenge Traffic Model A303 Stonehenge model is a traffic model created to support the assessment of the A303 Stonehenge improvement scheme.

31 M4 J3-12 traffic model The M4 J3-12 model is a traffic model created to support the development of the M4 J3-12 Smart Motorway scheme.

32 RP2 Cost & Value Model This is a Highways England owned model which takes inputs from across the business and uses them to produce clear dashboards for decision makers. It brings together the projected cost of RIS2 and the projected benefits, including BCRs, achievement of strategic objectives, overall VfM and deliverability risk.

33 Highways England Regional Traffic Models

The Highways England Regional Traffic Models consist of five strategic SATURN highway models covering the entirety of England. The models focus on the strategic road network and have a 2015 base year.

34 Software for the Whole life Economic Evaluation of Pavements (SWEEP)

The Highways England Pavement Management System (HAPMS) provides a central repository of road pavement condition data and various analysis tools for the preparation of road renewal schemes.

35 The Equality, Diversity & Inclusion Tool This is an analytical tool that uses a range of data (socio economic, demographic etc.) to assess, on a scheme by scheme basis where accessibility & inclusion efforts should be focussed to deliver the greatest benefits to communities.

36 Departmental Pay model This model is used to cost the annual pay award for staff in the central Department and its executive agencies.

37 COST-OS Provides consistent approach to estimating. Secure system that interacts with excel and PRISM.

38 PRISM Cost and Performance Management (EVM) system with interfaces with p6, COST OS and SAP By design.

39 XACTIUM Risk Manager Enterprise Risk Management System 1. Provides central collaborative environment to manage risk. 2. Interfaces with cost and schedule risk analysis tools and interacts with Tableau reporting tool. 3. Cloud user guide based SAAS system with mobile device access.

40 PLANET Framework Model (PFM) The model is used to forecast demand for journeys, both with and without HS2. This is used for appraisal purposes, the key output being the benefits for the HS2 Economic Case.

41 Commercial Analysis Modelling Framework

Analysis for the Financial Case, assessing long term operational on-going finances of the railway.

42 Consolidated Funding A model used for financial modelling.

43 BL 6 Cost Assurance Process Cost Model for assurance process of the Capital Cost Baseline 6.0 for Phase 1.

44 Design Models Source 2D and 3D design models.

45 HS2 landscape impacts model The model is used in the assessment of landscape impacts of HS2.

46 UK Civil Aircraft Noise Contour Model (ANCON)

A model used for aviation noise mapping.

47 Concessionary Travel Reimbursement Tool

The model is used by independent adjudicators in arbitrating disputes between TCAs and Operators.

48 Investing in cycling and walking: the economic case for action toolkit

The tool allows local authorities or any other user to estimate the cost benefit ratio for proposals for investing in cycling or walking schemes.

49 The highways maintenance appraisal tool (HMAT)

The highways maintenance appraisal tool (HMAT) is a spreadsheet based model. It allows local highway authorities to assess the economic costs and benefits of proposed asset management strategies.

50 Highways Maintenance Funding Needs Element Formula model

The model is used to allocate highways maintenance funding to local authorities.

51 Integrated Transport Block Formula model

The model is used to allocate funding for transport capital improvement schemes costing less than £5 million.

52 Survey and Inspection Review Model The model is being used to build a picture of current Survey and Inspection activity and then to model ‘what if’ scenarios to determine the optimal outcome based on the strategic direction of the business.

53 General Lighthouse Fund Long-Term Forecast Model

The Model produces a 10-year forecast of the financial position of the General Lighthouse Fund. It is used to predict the performance of the Fund, sensitivity test the Fund’s resilience to changes in external factors and achieve the Department’s strategy of maintaining stability in Light Dues rates.

54 PLANET Suite of Models This is a suite of models used to test the impacts of rail interventions on rail demand, crowding and revenue, especially when a timetable is not fully developed or available.

55 Forecasting of Approximate Revenue Model (FARM)

FARM is used to test the impacts of key demand drivers (including fare policy) on demand and revenue.

56 Demand Driver Generator (DDG) network of models

This collection of models is a series of spreadsheet tools used to come up with a standard set of exogenous inputs to be used in rail elasticity based forecasting.

57 MOIRA The model is an assignment of demand to trains tool. It is used to analyse the impacts of changes in timetables and rolling stock initiatives. It is also used to construct revenue models for franchise operations.

58 Exogenous Demand Growth Estimator (EDGE)

The model estimates growth in demand for rail travel based on exogenous factors such as employment, population and GDP. It implements the industry accepted (PDFH) methodology for forecasting demand based on forecasts of demand drivers and elasticities.

59 MOIRA2 MOIRA2 has been developed jointly between DfT and the rest of rail industry, as a replacement to current MOIRA model. This model is aimed at analysing timetable-related changes but also undertaking crowding calculation which MOIRA does not do.

60 RIOC (Rail Industry Operating Costs) Model for assessment of rolling stock costs. Aims to calculate all capital (lease) and operating costs for various types of rolling stock - for project appraisal within wider business case development.

61 Carbon Trajectory Model (CTM) The model produces estimates of rail energy for traction, carbon emissions (and associated social costs), and energy costs.

62 Rail Emissions Model (REM) For given user defined years and rail timetables, REM produces estimates of rail energy for traction, carbon emissions and associated social costs for passenger and freight services on the GB rail network.

63 RailSys The model is primarily used to develop and analyse timetables on infrastructure layouts (with associated manual analysis and interpretation of infrastructure constraints).

64 Electrification & Plant Tier 1 whole lifecycle cost model

Forecasts electrical power asset renewal costs, volumes and outputs (sustainability) over 35 years. Output informs electrical power renewal strategy and sustainability.

65 DCF Appraisal Template This model contains all the relevant values and assumptions recorded in the DfT WebTAG guidance.

66 Infrastructure Cost Model (Buildings) The Buildings Tier 1 model allocates capital renewal expenditure between assets, according to short-term requirements (based on current condition) and asset management policy (prioritising more critical assets).

67 Infrastructure Cost Model (Signalling) The Signalling Tier 1 model uses plans of major signalling renewals to forecast cost, volume, condition, maintenance, reliability, safety, and operations cost for the medium term (50 years).

68 Infrastructure Cost Model (Telecoms) Models telecoms costs for Tier 1 projects.

69 Network Rail Cash Flow Model Spreadsheet based model developed to monitor short-term and rolling annual cash requirements. Used to manage against drawdown from DfT.

70 Performance Target Setting Models - including CRM-P setting process

This model provides input into the setting of performance targets for NR and the Train Operating Companies.

71 SCAnNeR (Earthworks Tier 1 Model) SCAnNeR is a strategic decision support tool which offsets degradation against a number of intervention strategies, thereby assisting asset managers in finding the optimal volumes of work.

72 VTISM (Track Tier 1 Model) The Vehicle Track Interaction Strategic Model (VTISM) is a cross-industry supported modelling tool. VTISM forecasts the whole-life costs and outputs arising from track renewals and maintenance, and train wheel-set maintenance.

73 Traction Electricity Costing Model Traction Electricity price locks are recorded and train operator Electric Current for Traction (EC4T) tariffs are calculated.

74 MOIRA MOIRA is used to provide revenue, journeys and passenger miles by arc, flow or service group. It also provides train loadings for the modelling of crowding. This can be done for a number of base timetables or for timetables specified by the user. Specified timetables can be compared to the base to understand the implications of the timetable change in terms of the factors described above. Outputs from MOIRA are used within the crowding template and the DCF Appraisal template.

75 Availability Workbench Software tool used to develop Reliability Block Diagrams and Fault Trees for complex railway systems; these are subsequently used to estimate reliability, availability and maintainability parameters characterising operation of a system.

76 DCF Investment Model (Property) Model is used to appraise property investment appraisals relating to arch/retail refurbishments and other related opportunities.

77 Legion The software is used to assess passenger flows in a station which highlights congestion (density levels) and provides journey times as an output which subsequently is an input into a Business Case.

78 CBA Tool This tool helps to support decision making about safety-related enhancements.

79 Network Rail Financial Model Spreadsheet based model that uses business plans and other assumptions such as WACC, RPI, Working capital, Interest rates to derive financial projections and scenarios and to monitor against CP5 borrowing limit. Provides projections across multiple control periods.

80 Ready Reckoner EXCEL model to neutralise the financial impact of berthing offset changes in the Schedule 8 performance Regime to ensure that changes to offsets, and therefore more accurate train reporting, can be implemented with no financial impact on access parties.

81 ALCRM All Level Crossing Risk Model (ALCRM) is a risk score calculator used as a basis for forming comparisons for Level Crossing on the Infrastructure.

82 Common Consequence Tool The Common Consequence Tool (CCT) provides a method for estimating the potential safety consequences (fatalities and injuries to train occupants) arising from a train derailment, independent of the cause of derailment.

83 Common Risk Scoring Matrix for Safety (CRSM4S)

The Common Risk Scoring Matrix for Safety (CRSM4S) compares the various assets/functional/operational event risks on a constant basis.

84 SORAT SORAT software provides the functionality to record all signal overrun risk assessments and forms the formal Network Rail record a signals overrun risk.

85 TRAIL TRAIL is the tool used to assess Railway System Performance. It uses discrete event methods to dynamically simulate the operating railway for 50+ years and output journey lateness. Built models reflect the timetable, infrastructure, system reliability, and delay impacts upon running services.

86 Vegetation Management WLC Model Forecasts cost and volumes to perform vegetation management.

87 VISION This software accurately simulates the interaction of trains with one another and with the signalling system on complex networks.

88 West Coast Trains Financial Model (Contract start 1 April 2018)

This Financial Model underpins the Franchise Agreement, and is a contractual reference point for formulating Franchise Payments and Target Revenue.

89 London North Eastern Railway Financial Model (Start date 24 June 2018)

This Financial model underpins the Services Agreement, and is a contractual reference point for formulating Franchise Payments and Revenue.

90 First Greater Western Financial Model (Franchise Agreement contract signature date: 22/03/2015)

The Financial Model is a model that underpins the Franchise Agreement, and is a contractual reference point for formulating Franchise Payments and Target Revenue in line with Appendix 2 & Appendix 8. Model effective from 20th September 2015.

91 Southeastern (Franchise Agreement Dated: 10/09/2014)

The Financial Model is the source of the financial numbers used to populate the Franchise Payment tables (Schedule 8) in the Franchise Agreement. These tables form the basis of payments between the DfT and the TOC.

92 TSGN (Franchise Agreement start date: 11/06/2014)

The Financial Model is the source of the financial numbers used to populate the Franchise Payment tables (Schedule 8) in the Franchise Agreement. These tables form the basis of payments between the DfT and the TOC.

93 East Midlands Trains (Franchise Agreement start date: 18/10/15)

The Financial Model is the source of the financial numbers used to populate the tables in the Franchise Agreement which are in themselves the basis of the payments between the DfT and the TOC.

94 TPE First Financial - Financial Model v8 (Franchise Agreement start date: 01/04/16)

The Financial Model is the source of the financial numbers used to populate the tables in the Franchise Agreement which are in themselves the basis of the payments between the DfT and the TOC.

95 Northern_ARRIVA_Financial_Model_v3 CH02-file 1 of 1 (Franchise Agreement start date: 01/04/16)

The Financial Model is the source of the financial numbers used to populate the tables in the Franchise Agreement which are in themselves the basis of the payments between the DfT and the TOC.

96 East Anglia Financial Model (Franchise Agreement start date: 16/10/16)

The Financial Model is used to calculate the franchise payments between the TOC and SoS under the East Anglia Franchise Agreement and to calculate changes to those payments when Changes occur.

97 Cross Country (Franchise Agreement start date: 16/10/2016)

The Financial Model is the source of the financial numbers used to populate the Franchise Payment tables (Schedule 8) in the Franchise Agreement. These tables form the basis of payments between the DfT and the TOC.

98 West Midlands (Franchise Agreement start date: 10/12/18)

The Financial Model is used to calculate the franchise payments between the SoS and the TOC under the West Midlands Franchise Agreement and to calculate changes to those payments when Changes occur.

99 West Coast Partnership Franchise Comparator modelling suite

A series of spreadsheet models designed to forecast the costs, revenues and economic benefits of the franchise and to test options (across a range of policy areas) for inclusion in the West Coast Partnership specification originally planned for the 2016 Invitation to Tender for the Intercity West Coast Franchise.

100 C2C Financial Model Suites (Franchise Agreement start date: 09/11/2014)

The Financial Model Suites are the source of the financial numbers used to populate the Franchise Payment tables (Schedule 8) in the Franchise Agreement. These tables form the basis of payments between the DfT and the TOC.

101 South West Trains First MTR (Franchise Agreement Start date 20/08/2017)

FirstMTR South Western Trains (Franchise start date 20/08/2017).

102 Crossrail Investment Model The CIM assembles cost outturns and estimates for different components of the Crossrail project.

103 Network Modelling Framework (NMF) The model is used to test the impacts of infrastructure, rolling stock or timetable interventions on rail demand, revenue and to calculate economic benefits of such interventions. This is a strategic rail model used only by DfT and not available for wider use outside DfT.

104 HS2 Property Cost Model The model is used to forecast the financial outlay to the Department arising from discretionary property compensation schemes proposed on the line of the consulted HS2 route.

105 Finance Budget Model Handles VCA’s diverse portfolio of business related activities. Based on spreadsheets which track VCA’s current position and predict future income and costs.

106 Technical Test Reports Determines whether specific Type Approval legislative requirements have been met. Over 70 models or variants associated with the legislation have been developed and are combined into one single item on this register.

107 East Midlands Franchise Comparator Modelling Suite

A series of spreadsheet models designed to forecast the costs, revenues and economic benefits of the franchise and to test options (across a range of policy areas) for inclusion in the East Midlands Franchise Competition specification.

108 Rail Uncertainty Model A model to predict uncertainty around our central rail demand forecasts.

109 GDP 500 The model creates a stochastic simulation of GDP, resulting in 500 separate GDP forecast pathways.

110 HS2 Opex Model The primary purpose of the model is to produce operating cost forecasts for High Speed 2 and estimate savings for the conventional network which are reported within the published appraisals Economic Cases) for the scheme.

111 HS2 Economic Case Capex Model The primary purpose of the model is to take HS2 capex cost data and apply transformations such as discounting to produce aggregated capex cost forecasts for High Speed 2.

112 Local Bus Model A policy simulation model for economic cost benefit analysis of the bus market. Capable of estimating impacts of policy interventions, such as subsidies.

113 Bridges Tier 1 Model The Bridges Tier 1 model forecasts the future work requirements and condition of Network Rail's 25,000 underline and overline bridges. The model applies degradation at component level and performs work interventions within given budgets at either national or individual route level.

114 Cross Country Franchise Competition Comparator Modelling Suite

A series of spreadsheet models designed to forecast costs, revenues and economic benefits of the franchise and to test options (across a range of policy areas) for inclusion in the Cross Country Franchise Competition specification.

115 Intercity Express Programme Great Western Main line financial model

Analyses the financial impacts of the contract for Intercity Express trains on the Great Western Mainline. It is updated for variations and actual costs.

116 Intercity Express Programme East Coast Main line financial model

Analyses the financial impacts of the contract for Intercity Express trains on the Great Western Mainline. It is updated for variations and actual costs.

117 DfT Port Simulation Model The model includes key Roll on- Roll off (Ro-Ro) ports and simulates changes to the flow of vehicles under a range of scenarios.

118 Imperfect Competition Airline Model (ICAM)

ICAM is a spreadsheet model. Its core is constituted by a standard monopolistic competition framework which tries to predict individual airlines' responses to changes in market structure and/or in their cost base or demand.

119 Crowding Model The crowding model is used to estimate the socio-economic impacts of changes to crowding and capacity in line with DfT WebTAG guidance.

120 MOIRA 2 Passenger demand forecasting model capable of assessing the impact of timetable changes, modelling of crowding, and calculation of economic benefits.

121 Car Choice Model Projects the composition of new car sales by CO2 performance.

122 Rolling Stock Tender Evaluation Models

Model used to evaluate tenders for the HS2 Phase One rolling stock contract.

123 Observed Data Analytics Tool Uses timing data from the Control Centre of the Future (CCF) to analyse real-world running data against current values within the Timetable Planning Rules and produces change recommendations to the TPRs based on the real-world outputs.

124 Schedule 4 ACS & Compensation model

This model and underlying analysis estimates the likely Schedule 4 compensation expenditure by Network Rail route and operator based on expected levels of renewals and maintenance expenditure.

125 Schedule 8 Forecast Model (Passenger) This schedule 8 model calculates the 'geographical split' of compensation due to the TOCs for unplanned delays caused by incidents and failures on the network.

126 South Eastern Franchise Competition Comparator Modelling Suite

A series of spreadsheet models designed to forecast costs, revenues and economic benefits of the franchise and to test options (across a range of policy areas) for inclusion in the South Eastern Franchise Competition specification.

127 Transport Energy Model (TEM) Provides estimates of energy consumption and pollutant emissions for a range of vehicle technologies covering cars, vans, HGVs and buses.

128 WCP - Final Score Model v1.0 The Final Score Model combines the quality score and the price score of West Coast Partnership franchise bids to generate the final MEAT (Most Economically Advantageous Tender) score. The model ranks the Bidders and informs the Department as to which bidder has won the competition.