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Diet changes in Tokyo and their environmental impact
Alexandros Gasparatos
Associate Professor, University of Tokyo
19611963
19651967
19691971
19731975
19771979
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
Animal products
Beans and pulses
Cereals (not incl. rice)
Fish, shellfish, aquatic products
Fruits
Meat
Oilseeds, oilcrops
Rice
Roots
Vegetables
Other
kcal
/cap
/day
Diet shifts in Japan
FAO, 2013
19611963
19651967
19691971
19731975
19771979
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
Fish, shellfish, aquatic products
Meat
Oilseeds, oilcrops
Ricekcal
/cap
/day
Diet shifts in Japan
FAO, 2013
Meat consumption trends
19491952
19551958
19611964
19671970
19731976
19791982
19851988
19911994
19972000
20030
25
50
75
100
Meat consumption
TokyoJapan
g/capita/day
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20060
20
40
60
80
100Meat vs. fish consumption in Tokyo
Fish and Shellfish
Meat
g pe
r da
y pe
r pe
rson
Questions
How have diets changes in Japan/Tokyo affected meat production in Japan?
How have diet changes in Tokyo affected direct land use and natural capital appropriation (quantified as emergy) within Japan?
Where does this happen?
What are the implications?
Meat production trends
Production increaseBeef – 2.5 timesPork – 5 times
Import increaseBeef – 90 timesPork – 1400 times
19611964
19671970
19731976
19791982
19851988
19911994
19972000
20030
200
400
600
800
1000
Beef
ProductionImports
1000
tons
19611964
19671970
19731976
19791982
19851988
19911994
19972000
20030
400
800
1200
1600
2000
Pork
ProductionImports
1000
tons
19601963
19661969
19721975
19781981
19841987
19901993
19961999
20020
20
40
60
80
100
120
Self-sufficiency ratio
BeefPork
perc
enta
ge
Meat production trends
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
200
400
600
800
0
2
4
6
8Beef
Area
Animals per hectare
Are
a (1
000
ha)
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Pork
Area
Animals per hectare
Are
a (1
000
ha)
Land use trends
Gadda and Gasparatos, 2009
Meat consumption trends
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050.0
40.0
80.0
120.0Beef supply in Tokyo
ConsumedImported WholesaleRetail
Beef
(100
0t)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
50
100
150
200
250
Pork supply in Tokyo
ConsumedImported WholesaleRetail
Pork
(100
0t)
Land use trends
% beef sold in Tokyo wholesale market region
% pork sold in Tokyo wholesale market region
Land use trendsHokkaido
Tohoku
Hokuriku
Other Kanto
South Kanto
Higashimaya
TokaiKinki
Chugoku
Shikoku
North Kyushu
South Kyushu
Okinawa
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Pork - Area (ha)
1975
2005
HokkaidoTohoku
Hokuriku
Other Kanto
South Kanto
Higashimaya
TokaiKinki
Chugoku
Shikoku
North Kyushu
South Kyushu
Okinawa
0
25,000
50,000
Beef - Area (ha)
1975
2005
Emergy synthesis
Gasparatos, 2011
Meat consumption trendsHokkaido
Tohoku
Hokuriku
Other Kanto
South Kanto
Higashimaya
TokaiKinki
Chugoku
Shikoku
North Kyushu
South Kyushu
Okinawa
0.00E+00
2.00E+21
4.00E+21
6.00E+21
Pork - Emergy (sej)
1975
2005
HokkaidoTohoku
Hokuriku
Other Kanto
South Kanto
Higashiyama
TokaiKinki
Chugoku
Shikoku
North Kyushu
South Kyushu
Okinawa
0.00E+00
2.00E+20
4.00E+20
6.00E+20
Pork - Emergy (sej) - Tokyo
1975
2005
Meat consumption trendsHokkaido
Tohoku
Hokuriku
Other Kanto
South Kanto
Higashimaya
TokaiKinki
Chugoku
Shikoku
North Kyushu
South Kyushu
Okinawa
0.00E+00
2.50E+21
5.00E+21
7.50E+21
Beef - Emergy (sej) - Japan
1975
2005
HokkaidoTohoku
Hokuriku
Other Kanto
South Kanto
Higashiyama
TokaiKinki
Chugoku
Shikoku
North Kyushu
South Kyushu
Okinawa
0.00E+00
2.50E+20
5.00E+20
7.50E+20
1.00E+21
Beef - Emergy (sej) - Tokyo
Some conclusionsMeat consumption in Tokyo has increased significantly within the past 60-70 years, but still Tokyo depends to a large extent to its surrounding areas for its meat
Direct land use has been reducing over time due to intensificationOverall natural capital appropriation has increased due to increasing demand and industrialization of the meat production system
Attempts to increase the low self-sufficiency ratio of livestock products through boosting domestic production (a food security objective pushed by Japanese MAFF) will most likely result in a significant increase of the natural resources appropriated by the agricultural sector.
Food security and energy security seem to be becoming two interconnected policy realities in Japan.
Lessons learnt and challengesPossible to locate the areas that the food consumed in cities is produced, and quantify associated environmental burdens.
Maybe not possible for all food commodities, particularly bulk commodities and commodities that are dominating the food processing industries (e.g. vegetable oils, corn, wheat, soy, sugar, etc)
Main problems- Nature of the food chains - Need to integrate and manipulate dozens of datasets collected from several
different organisations (increases uncertainly and possibility of incompatibility of datasets)
- Contradictions between datasets; e.g. food surveys and wholesale market sales (e.g. Sao Paulo)
- Can answer at best “how much and from where” questions, and not “why from there”
Implication: ability to accurately quantify teleconnections.
