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Difference between Quantitative and Qualitative VfM Criteria
Owain Ellis12 June 2008
Contents
• Pros and Cons
• Qualitative VfM Criteria
• Quantitative VfM Criteria
• Challenges
Why Assess VfM ?
• Starting Point:
– Major capital investment
• Desired End point:
– Optimum and enforceable risk allocation to the private sector partner
When is the VfM assessment made?
• Programme level
– Suitability of using private finance
• Project level – pre market launch
– Important decision point
• Procurement level
– Check that procurement will deliver the forecast VfM benefits
Qualitative assessment - Viability
• Measurable and definable outputs, clear scope
• Operational flexibility
• Inclusion of soft services
• Equity/efficiency reasons for private sector service provision
• Strategic/ regulatory issues
Qualitative assessment - Desirability
• Risk Management
• Innovation
• Duration, requirement and asset life
• Lifecycle costs
• Do the benefits outweigh the costs?
Qualitative assessment - Achievability
• Market capacity and interest
• Timing
• Procurement time scales
• Value
• Procuring authority skills and resources
Balanced Approach
• Balanced qualitative and quantitative assessment
• Evidence-based approach
• Generic VfM model
VfM Quantitative analysis
Identify cost inputs
Adjust costs for Optimism Bias
Factor in finance cost assumptions
Adjust for:
•Flexibility
•Tax
•Life cycle investment
Measuring VfM - Public Sector Comparator (PSC)
• Same outputs specified under PFI
• PSC helps to determine:
– indicative costs (as benchmark)
– risk transfer
– VfM of private sector bidders’ solutions
Public Sector Comparator
PSC PFI
NPV of PFIcash flows
Risk retainedby Authority
NPV of PSCcash flowsN
PV
of
PS
C
NPV of PSCrisk transfer
Risk retainedby Authority
NP
V o
f P
FI
Typical Profile of Net Present Cost of PSC vs. PFI
Risks retained, that are transferred under PFI
Total value of public sector delivering same outputs over life of contract
– Design and build costs– Operating costs
Total net present value of PFI Co’s unitary charges, over life of
contract
Measuring VfM - Public Sector Comparator (PSC)
• Key considerations:-
– sensible costing
– proper use of advice
– benchmarking with similar schemes
– recognition of risk and uncertainty
– optimism bias
– established public sector discount rate
Technical Adjustments
• Unbundled discount rate - time preference rate of 3.5%
• Optimism Bias factored in to investment appraisal
• Monetisation of non financial benefits and costs
• Material tax differentials recognised and monetised
VfM Analysis – Input Sheet
General PFI FundingTimings (Yrs) Rates - Escalators & Discount Rates (%) Base Year Gearing (%) 90%Contract period 29 CapEx escalator 4.5% 0 Sterling swap rate (%) 5.15%Initial CapEx period 5 OpEx (non employment) escalator 2.5% 0 Credit spread (bps) 12Year when OpEx is first incurred 5 OpEx (employment) escalator 3.5% 0 Bank margin (bps) 100
Unitary charge escalator 50% 0 Tail for bank debt (yrs) 2Real discount rate 3.5% NA Commitment fee (bps) 50
Upfront fee (bps) 90
Costs Grace period (yrs) 1
Whole Life PSC OB Pre (%) OB Post (%) PFI OB Pre (%)
Initial CapEx (£'000) 65,250 10% 30% 71,775 10% Unitary Charge
Lifecycle costs at each LC date (£'000) 6,535 10% 30% 1,076 10% Initial CapEx period payment (%) 50%
Lifecycle intervals (yrs) 10 NA NA 1 NA
OpEx (non employment)(p.a.) (£'000) 1,075 10% 20% 1,183 10% Pre Tax IRR Targets
OpEx (employment per person) (p.a.) (£'000) 20 NA NA 20 NA High 18%OpEx (employee number) 25 NA NA 25 NA Medium 15%Transaction Low 13%
Public sector (£'000) 1,958 10% 10% 1,435 10%Private sector (£'000) 0 0% 0% 1,077 0%
Third Party Income PSC OB Pre (%) OB Post (%) PFI OB Pre (%)Income ( p.a.) (£'000) 475 10% 10% 575 10%
Flexibility PSC PFI
Scope change year 10 10Probability factor (%) 50% 50%Level of scope change (%) 50% 50%Premium flexibility factor (%) 0 10% bps Basis Points
CapEx Capital ExpenditureIndirect VfM Factors PSC PFI LC Lifecycle Costs
Amount (Npv)(£'000) 0 2,000 NA Not Applicable - no input required
OB Pre Pre-FBC Optimism BiasTax PSC PFI OB Post Post-FBC Optimism Bias (for PSC only)
PSC adjustment factor (%) 6% NA OpEx Operational ExpenditurePSC Public Sector Comparator (i.e. conventional procurement)
Lifecycle Related Adjustments Input required
PSC lifecycle VfM adjustment 40% Hard-wired Assumption - no input required
Residual cost benchmark 50%PSC residual cost factor if lower than benchmark 70%PSC residual cost factor if higher than benchmark 35%
#END
VfM Model - Challenges
• Timing: Decision making tool or demonstrator?
• Optimism Bias: availability of a reliable evidence base (PFI & PSC)
• Data management - double counting
• Limitations of a standardised approach
• Care over presenting numbers
Conclusions
• Qualitative VfM Assessment assists with decision at Programme and Project levels
• Quantitative VfM Assessment assists with demonstration of VfM at Procurement level
• Limitations - Part of Business Case approach