The Futureof the

The digital dipiomacy potentiaiBy Kamen Lozev and Art Murray

Anation's diplomatic missionsare its eyes, ears and mouth,

with the brain located in a capitalcity up to halfway around theworld. The United States alone hasmore than 300 diplomatic outpostsin 177 countries. Evet^ signal sentand received needs to be clear,timely and accurate. Every deci-sion, and the actions it puts intomotion, must be carefully thoughtout—not an easy feat in today'scomplex, fast-changing universe.

In the world of diplomacy, poordecision-making and miscommunica-tion have unforgiving consequences.Last month's article, "Politics at theSpeed of Thought" (kmworld.com/AxticIes/Column/The-Future-of-the-Future/Politics-at-the-speed-of-thought-89105.aspx), showed justhow quickly nation-toppling eventscan unfold.

Old vs. newMany of the traditional elements

of diplomacy—dialog, negotiation,treaties and agreements—are stillvery much a part of the diplomaticlandscape. Even today, if you travelto some far-off destination, you arelikely to find that the old rubberpassport stamp remains a staple ofthe consulate's toolbox.

The primary actors are also essen-tially the same, except the general pub-lic now plays a more prominent role.That's where the traditional actors needto make some serious adjustment. Ajidthat adjustment is coming in the formof "digital diplomacy."

The Vienna Convention of 1961recognizes that one of the main func-tions of a diplomat is to collect infor-mation and report developments tothe home state. That role is just asvalid today as it was back then. Butthe old days in which embassy staffspent untold hours listening to radioand television broadcasts, or whis-pering to their counterparts in a dark

comer of a cafe and reporting theirfindings in a cablegram, are gone.

As Jeffrey Cooper states in hisbook. Diplomacy in the InformationAge (2010), "diplomats and min-istries have lost their monopoly oninformation about foreign affairs."Small wonder. How can countrieseffectively communicate whentheir embassy buildings are sur-rounded by concrete barriers andconcertina wire?

Old-style diplomacy followedwhat might be called an equivalentof the "Newtonian" model. It can belikened to a billiards champion strik-ing the balls on a pool table, withsome reasonable expectation ofwhere they might end up. The words"what angle shall we use?" oftencame up when discussing strategy indiplomatic circles.

The new world of diplomacy ismore like, a quantum mechanicalmodel. State changes can occur nearlyinstantaneously, at discrete levels,with little wiggle room in between.Social media now spreads informa-tion faster than any news broadcast.

To make things even more chal-lenging, a quantum-like entangle-ment exists among a host nation'seconomy, politics, technology, cul-ture and the overall wellbeing of thepopulation. Diplomacy must take allof those dynamic areas into account.And by the way, it's reflexive, mean-ing that one action taken in isolationcan ultimately affect the entireecosystem and vice versa.

The U.K.'s Foreign and Common-wealth Office (FCO) clearly recog-nizes this and has publicly stated itsintent to go fully digital on both deliv-ering services as well as carrying outits foreign policy (see gov.uk/govemment/publicadons/the-fco-digital-strategy). In January 2012, when the CostaConcordia cruise ship capsized,Britain's FCO immediately took tosocial media to communicate withBritish citizens onboard, responding toinquiries, monitoring comments being

made about the FCO's response andquickly making adjustments as needed.

Similarly, the U.S. State Depart-ment's Quadrennial Diplomacy andDevelopment Review (QDDR) of2010 emphasizes digital communica-tions channels as the platform for con-ducting what it calls "21st centurystatecraft" (state.gov/s/dmr/qddr). Thatfirst ever quadrennial review washome out of the recognition thatpower is shifting from a centralizedcommand and control model to thesocial network and consequently tothe population at large.

Dissolving geographicboundaries

A case in point is Britain's FCOreaching out to the Somali diaspora ofabout 1 million people scatteredacross more than two dozen countriesin Europe, Africa, North America andthe Middle East. Beginning with aconference in February 2012, theFCO has been using digital technol-ogy and social networking to activelypromote the U.K.'s commitment tosupporting the development of a morestable Somalia by encouraging onlinedebate and actually listening to thevoices of the people of Somalia.

The combination of an educatedSomali diaspora and a strong traditionof community activism contributed tomaking this new method of diplomaticengagement a success. As was indi-cated in the FCO's digital strategy doc-ument referenced above: "Digitalenabled us to reach people where wedid not have a diplomatic presence, andincreased our influence where we did."

Similarly in Iran, both the UnitedStates and the United Kingdom areusing digital diplomacy despite theabsence of an official embassy. Thedigital presence has resulted in agrowing audience of Iranian citizensengaging in discussions about a widevariety of sensitive topics rangingfrom Iran's nuclear program tohumans rights to westem sanctionsto media censorship.

Other examples abound, espe-cially regarding the use of socialmedia during the Arab Spring upris-ings. In the case of Libya, Westemdiplomats were able lo identifyand communicate with previouslyunknown individuals who ended upplaying major roles in the new gov-ernment. Downplaying the main-stream news networks' portrayal ofthe NATO intervention, decisionmakers paid closer attention to themore important channel—what thepeople of Libya actually thought andsaid—and discussing those thoughtswith them, in Arabic.

Opportunities for KMDigital diplomacy plays an ever-

increasing role in our volatile world,perhaps even averting future wars.Technology-enabled social net-works, when flooded with falserumors and incorrect knowledge,can quickly lead to mass hysteria,confusion and hostility. But whenthose same networks connect andengage enough minds having theright knowledge and the ability tocommunicate across cultural andother barriers, the upside potential isvirtually limitless.

Knowledge-enabled digital com-munication is the glue that can bind usin ways that diplomatic pouches,cables and negotiations across largeimposing conference tables nevercould. KM'ers around the globe havea golden opportunity to help make thisImportant transformation happen. I

Kamen Lozev, Ph.D., kamenlozav@abv.bg, is

an author and lecturer in philosophy and inter-

national relations at South-West University

'Neofit Rilski', Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria, speoializ-

ing in digital diplomaoy and the transformation

of Eastern European economies. Art Murray

is CEO of Applied Knowledge Soienoes

(aksciences.oom) and oo-director of the Enter-

prise of the Future Program a: the George

Washington University Ir^titute for Knowledge

and Innovation (gwu.edu/^iki), e-mail

amurraySaksciences.com.

2 2 KMv\bHd June 2013 www.kmworld.com

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