Digital Forecast Process Evolution David Ruth December 5, 2008

Digital Digital ForecastForecastProcessProcessEvolutionEvolution

David Ruth December 5, 2008David Ruth December 5, 2008

Digital Forecast Process EvolutionDigital Forecast Process Evolution

The Digital Forecast ProcessThe Digital Forecast Process

NumericalNumerical ModelingModeling

ObservationsObservations

NumericalNumerical OutputOutput

ModelModelInterpret.Interpret.

SensibleSensible WeatherWeather

ForecastForecast EditingEditing

Digital Digital ForecastForecast

Product Product GenerationGeneration UserUser

ProductsProducts






Product Product GenerationGeneration





UserUserProductsProducts

MatrixMatrix EditingEditing

The Human in the LoopThe Human in the Loop


ICWF ICWF InteractiveInteractiveGuidanceGuidanceRevisorRevisor( 1987-2003 )( 1987-2003 )

Matrix EditingMatrix Editing


Canada’sCanada’sSCRIBESCRIBE

Matrix EditingMatrix Editing













GridGrid EditingEditing


GraphicalGraphicalForecastForecastEditorEditor

Grid EditingGrid Editing


KMAKMAGraphicGraphicEditingEditingModuleModule

Grid EditingGrid Editing












ObjectObject EditingEditing




Canada’sCanada’sForecast Forecast Production Production AssistantAssistant

Object EditingObject Editing












ThresholdThresholdAdjustmentAdjustment





IFPSIFPSSliderSliderBarsBars(1997-2003)(1997-2003)

Threshold AdjustmentThreshold Adjustment


InteractiveInteractiveCalibrationCalibration of a of a4D Datacube4D Datacube

Threshold AdjustmentThreshold Adjustment


IC4D for AAWUIC4D for AAWU












4D Field4D FieldModificationModification






UKMET 4D Field ModificationUKMET 4D Field Modification


GridGrid EditingEditing GridGrid EditingEditing











4D Field4D FieldModificationModification





NWS Vision (draft)NWS Vision (draft)

A safer, better informed, more productive society A safer, better informed, more productive society where environmental knowledge empowers where environmental knowledge empowers improved decisions in public, private, and improved decisions in public, private, and commercial lifecommercial life


NDFD in 2015NDFD in 2015

• Centrally-held, fine-resolution, up-to-the-minute Centrally-held, fine-resolution, up-to-the-minute digital forecast database.digital forecast database.

• Contains a complete, authoritative, and consistent Contains a complete, authoritative, and consistent set of all NWS forecast elements including hydro and set of all NWS forecast elements including hydro and aviation.aviation.

• Forecasts remotely modified by WFOs, RFCs, and Forecasts remotely modified by WFOs, RFCs, and National Centers in planned and orderly fashion.National Centers in planned and orderly fashion.

• Includes information that quantifies forecast Includes information that quantifies forecast uncertaintyuncertainty

• National and local products produced from same National and local products produced from same database using both national and locally-developed database using both national and locally-developed software.software.


Planned and orderly Planned and orderly changes changes

• Forecasters enhance model guidance for selected Forecasters enhance model guidance for selected days and areas of the county.days and areas of the county.

• Most of database is not routinely changed from Most of database is not routinely changed from model guidance.model guidance.

• National/regional conductors pre-approve proposed National/regional conductors pre-approve proposed changes and prepare coordinated forecast plans for changes and prepare coordinated forecast plans for various areas of country.various areas of country.

• Coordinated forecast plans are viewable inside and Coordinated forecast plans are viewable inside and outside NWS and evolve throughout the day similar outside NWS and evolve throughout the day similar to WFO forecast discussions.to WFO forecast discussions.


Only what’s importantOnly what’s important

• Coordinated forecast plan specifies what guidance, Coordinated forecast plan specifies what guidance, days, elements, and areas to edit as well as target days, elements, and areas to edit as well as target time for publication into NDFD.time for publication into NDFD.

• Edit areas are defined by daily weather features and Edit areas are defined by daily weather features and terrain, and are not limited by CWA.terrain, and are not limited by CWA.

• Edits may be reviewed by conductors in central Edits may be reviewed by conductors in central staging area prior to publication into NDFD, staging area prior to publication into NDFD, depending on the number of offices involved and depending on the number of offices involved and nature of forecast problem.nature of forecast problem.

• Conductors employ tools to resolve problems Conductors employ tools to resolve problems centrally if necessary.centrally if necessary.


Detailed, consistent, and currentDetailed, consistent, and current

• Forecasters use standard interactive editing and Forecasters use standard interactive editing and model interpretation tools from national set with model interpretation tools from national set with limited use of local tools.limited use of local tools.

• Tools preserve high-resolution spatial and temporal Tools preserve high-resolution spatial and temporal details in model guidance.details in model guidance.

• Tools maintain temporal, spatial, and interelement Tools maintain temporal, spatial, and interelement consistency in real time (not after the fact).consistency in real time (not after the fact).

• Conductor invokes automated techniques to update Conductor invokes automated techniques to update early forecast hours to match latest observations in early forecast hours to match latest observations in areas of the country experiencing routine weather.areas of the country experiencing routine weather.

Documents

Digital Forecast Process Evolution David Ruth December 5, 2008