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The Rising
Can't see nothin' in front of meCan't see nothin' coming up behindI make my way through this darknessI can't feel nothing but this chain that binds me…
…On my back's a sixty pound stoneOn my shoulder a half mile line
Come on up for the risingCome on up, lay your hands in mine.
—Bruce Springsteen
It’s tough out there…
Media Spending???Robert Coen
MAGNA Global
“The outlook is not good.”
Date 2008 2009Barclays Capital Oct. 2008 -3.6% -5.5%
Bernstein Research Aug. 2008 3.7% 3.6%
BMO Capital July 2008 1.8% 1.9%
Carat Insight Aug. 2008 2.1% 3.1%
eMarketer Aug. 2008 1.9% 1.1%
Jeffries & Company Sept. 2008 2.0% 0.0%
UBS Oct. 2008 2.5% -6.0%
MAGNA July 2008 2.0% 3.1%
Myers Publishing Oct. 2008 -1.3% -4.0%
Wachovia Oct. 2008 -0.8% -0.8%
ZenithOptimedia Oct. 2008 1.6% 0.7%
Media Spending Growth in the US
First Half 2008
-1.6%
53% of US marketers expect reduced ad budgets over the next 6 months (July/Aug ’08)
53% of US marketers expect reduced ad budgets over the next 6 months (July/Aug ’08)
Source: Association of National Advertisers, July/August 2008; among 100 ANA-member marketers
Epsilon(Summer ’08):
65%
MarketingSherpa
(Sept ’08):
70%
MarketingProfs(Oct ’08):
31% say they’ve already cut!
What are marketers seeing for their
traditional media budgets?
48% will cut—MarketingSherpa, Sept. 2008
(n = 400 large companies)
59% will cut—Epsilon, Sept. 2008
(n = 175 CMOs and senior marketers)
85% will cut—MarketingProfs, Oct. 2008
(n = 600 marketers)
“Where’s the growth?!?”
US online ad spending growth for
200820.3%
20.0%
17.4%
16.9%
15.0%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.0%
11.6%
Bernstein (Aug '08)
Collins Stewart (Oct '08)
eMarketer (Aug '08)
Barclays (Oct '08)
Jeffries (Sept '08)
Myers (Oct '08)
MAGNA (Oct '08)
JP Morgan (Sept '08)
EITO (Oct '08)
ThinkPanmure (Oct '08)
Source: eMarketer, Nov. 2008
15.2% growth in 1st Half, per IAB15.0% growth for Microsoft in Q322.0% growth for Google in Q3
Double-Digit Gains
US online ad spending growth for
200919.4%
18.0%
16.9%
15.7%
14.5%
14.1%
13.5%
13.5%
12.0%
10.0%
3.0%
LiveRail (Sept '08)
Collins Stewart (Oct '08)
Bernstein (Aug '08)
JP Morgan (Sept '08)
eMarketer (Aug '08)
Barclays (Oct '08)
Myers (Oct '08)
MAGNA (Oct '08)
Jeffries (Sept '08)
Wachovia (Oct '08)
ThinkPanmure (Oct '08)
Source: eMarketer, Nov. 2008
???
???
US online ad spending growth for2009
16.9%
15.7%
14.5%
14.1%
13.5%
13.5%
12.0%
Bernstein (Aug '08)
JP Morgan (Sept '08)
eMarketer (Aug '08)
Barclays (Oct '08)
Myers (Oct '08)
MAGNA (Oct '08)
Jeffries (Sept '08)
Source: eMarketer, Nov. 2008
Double-Digit Gains
63%
62%
31%
72%
26%Forrester (Spring '08)
Advertiser Perceptions (May '08)
MarketingSherpa (Sep '08)
Epsilon* (Sept '08)
MarketingProfs (Oct '08)
% of marketers planning to increase their online ad budget – despite the recession
*63% of (175) CMOs said they had increased their online budgets in the past year
N = 333
N = 1,811
N = 400
N = 175
N = 600
55% of global marketing execsplan to cut spending on traditionalmedia in order to fund increased
online efforts (June 2008)
Over 70% of global marketingexecutives today believe online will
determine how major campaignsare planned and executed
Over the past
18 months, ROI for
online has surpassed
that of broadcast!
IT’S TOUGHOUT THERE.
You have 4 options...
To get a free copy ofDigital Marketing Now:
Seven Strategies for Surviving the Downturn
[ ] Drop your card at booth #801 [ ] E-mail me at [email protected] [ ] Visit www.eMarketer.com
