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Director of Research Visit California
Dan Mishell
Our mission: Create desire for the California experience
Research objectives • Measure travel to and within California
• Business insights
• Program performance
• Knowledge base
• Industry platform
Source: Tourism Economics, Dean Runyan Associates
CONSUMER REVENUE $122.5B JOBS 1.06M STATE & LOCAL TAX REVENUE $9.9B
Tourism’s economic impact 2015
Domestic = 93% of visits, but international =20% of spending
80%
20%
93%
7% Domestic International
263.4 million person-trips
$122.5 billion in spending
Source: DK Shifflet & Associates, U.S. Department of Commerce, CIC Research Inc., Dean Runyan Associates
U.S. origins grouped into CA resident, primary western, and long-haul markets
Sources: DK Shifflet & Assoc.; TNS TravelsAmerica
Six primary western markets account for 50% of non-resident visits and 1/3 of non-resident spending
California’s global visitor appeal
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research Inc.; BEA; Tourism Economics
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Can
ada
Chi
na
UK
Aus
tral
ia
Japa
n
Mex
ico
Air*
Ger
man
y
Fran
ce
S. K
orea
Mid
dle
East
Indi
a
Sca
ndin
avia
Bra
zil
Ital
y
Mill
ion
s
Thou
san
ds
2016 Visits (projection)
2020 Visits (forecast)
2016 Spend (projection)
2020 Spend (forecast)
Travel spending is at an all-time high
Source: Dean Runyan Associates
CA room demand is at record-level too
Source: Smith Travel Research
59.7%
74.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Travel indicators are up in 2016, and outpace those for the U.S.
Source: Smith Travel Research
California U.S. Lodging (Aug YTD) Occupancy +1.1% -0.2% Average daily rate +6.1% +3.1% Revenue per available room +7.3% +2.9% California airport traffic (Aug YTD) Domestic +5.8% International +10.1% Overseas arrivals (Mar YTD) +9.0% +5.1% Welcome Center traffic (Aug YTD) +1.9% Leisure & hospitality employment (Aug/Sep) +3.4% +2.4%
Occupancy growth has slowed, but room rate growth is still strong for most CA regions
Source: Smith Travel Research
Occupancy Aug YTD % Chg
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
ADR Aug YTD % Chg
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0% CA Central Coast Central Valley Deserts Gold Country High Sierra Inland Empire LA County North Coast Orange County Shasta Cascade SD County SF Bay Area
Some foreign currencies are starting to recover after 2+ years of steady decline
Source: Pacific Exchange Rate Service – Prof. Werner Antweiler
2016 growth in CA arrivals are led by Asia and Middle East
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Travel & Tourism Office Form I-94
Asia Middle East Europe Oceania Mexico* South America
Total Overseas
YTD % Change 13.3% 6.7% 6.3% 3.2% 3.1% -1.2% 9.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
California International Port-of-Entry Arrivals from World Regions (March YTD 2016 Year-Over-Year Percent Change)
Moderate growth in visits are projected for 2016 and 2017
2016 2017 Overall visits +2.2% +2.5% Domestic +2.2% +2.5% International +2.8% +3.6% Overseas +5.1% +5.0%
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce; StatsCan; CIC Research, Inc.; Tourism Economics
Growth in visitor spending is forecast to outpace growth in visits
2016 2017 Overall spending +3.6% +4.1% Domestic +3.5% +3.8% International +4.2% +5.1%
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce; StatsCan; CIC Research, Inc.; Tourism Economics
2-3% growth in domestic travel is forecasted for CA through 2020
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16F 17F 18F 19F 20F
CA Domestic Day and Overnight Visits% growth
Source: Tourism Economics, DKSA
Domestic Overnight (blue)
Domestic Day (dark blue)
Total Domestic (gray)
3.5%
2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3%
5.9%
2.7%
1.5% 1.9%
1.4% 1.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
Paid Non-paid
AN
NU
AL
% C
HA
NG
E
Source: Tourism Economics, TNS Global, STR
Stays in paid accommodations are projected to grow more than non-paid stays
3-5% growth in international travel is forecasted for CA through 2020
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16F 17F 18F 19F 20F
US California
CA International Inbound TravelAnnual % change
Source: Tourism Economics
China, South Korea and India forecasted to lead % growth through 2020
0 3 6 9 12 15
BrazilJapan
CanadaUnited Kingdom
FranceMexico
GermanyItaly
ScandanaviaAustralia
Middle EastIndia
South KoreaChina
Projected international visits by marketAverage annual % growth, 2015-2020
Source: Tourism Economics
Biggest potential for spending growth is among international travelers
8090
100110120130140150160170180190200
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16F 17F 18F 19F 20F
Domestic International
Expenditures and Visits DivergingIndex, 2007 = 100
Source: Tourism Economics
Solid lines = visitorsDashed lines = expenditures
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