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Directorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES
OECD OCDE
Perspectivas del mercado mundial de agroalimentos
Buenos Aires, ArgentinaOECD
Gregoire Tallard
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
2
The OECD provides:
Economic analysis with a policy focus
Information on countries’ experience
A forum for policy discussion and coordination
A global outreachA global outreach
OECD Member CountriesCountries/Economies Engaged in Working Relationships with the OECD
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
4
OECD Work on Food and Agriculture
Providing economic and policy information and advice that supports government efforts to improve the domestic and international performance of their policies
http://www.oecd.org/agr/
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
5
Current market situation
• Record harvests 2004/05 in grains, oilseeds resulted in price reductions
• Lower sugar stocks despite larger 2004/05 harvests lead to higher prices
• Bad weather in major exporting regions pushed up dairy prices
• Animal diseases continue to disrupt meat trade
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
6
Agricultural World Market Context: The
Evolving Economic Environment
• Changing consumer demand
• Growing civil society voice
• Changing market structures
• Increasing globalisation
• Shifting competition focus
• Growing role of standards
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
7
Main assumptions- macroeconomic -
• Rapid global expansion slowed by oil prices in 2004
• Sustained, broad-based growth in the medium to longer term
• US dollar to remain strong relative to most Latin American currencies
• Inflation to remain relatively low
• Slowing population growth
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
8
Main assumptions- unchanged policies -
• Provisions of US 2002 FSRI Act to continue
• EU 2003 CAP reform and EBA
• Enlarged EU of 25 countries
• URAA commitments to continue– No new WTO agreement– No new WTO accessions
• Existing regional agreements (NAFTA, MERCOSUR)
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
9
OECD-FAO Outlook 2005-14:Main trends
• Increasing competition in world markets
• Population, income growth stimulate consumption and imports in developing countries
• … and South-South trade
• Renewed export subsidy use in EU (weak USD)
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
10
OECD-FAO Outlook 2005-14:Main trends
• Meat, sugar, cotton, oilseeds from South America
• Continued productivity growth in agriculture
• Downward pressure continues on real commodity prices
• Changes in food chain affect trade
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
11
Production growth in developing countries outpaces
OECD
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
An
nu
al
pro
du
cti
on
gro
wth
a
ve
rag
e 2
00
0/0
4 t
o 2
01
4
Cereals Oilseeds Sugar Meat Milk
OE
CD
No
n-O
EC
D
Wo
rld
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
12
Consumption growth in developing countries outpaces
OECD
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
An
nu
al
co
ns
um
pti
on
gro
wth
a
ve
rag
e 2
00
0/0
4 t
o 2
01
4
Cereals Oilseeds Sugar Meat Butter
OE
CD
No
n-O
EC
D
Wo
rld
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
13
Brazil and Argentina become leading oilseed exporters
1996 vs. 2005 vs. 2014
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
USA Brazil Argentina Canada
Mill
ion
tonn
es
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
14
OECD countries continue to dominate coarse grain exports
1996 vs. 2005 vs. 2014
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
USA EU25 Australia Argentina Ukraine
Mill
ion
tonn
es
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
15
Growth in coarse grain imports concentrated outside OECD
1996 vs. 2005 vs. 2014
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
0
5
10
15
20
25
Japan Mexico Korea SaudiArabia
China Egypt
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
16
Growing Competition in Meat and Grains Net Trade Markets
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Beef Pigmeat Poultry Oilseeds Coarsegrains
Pe
rce
nt
ch
an
ge
OECD Net trade South America Net trade
2014 compared to 1999-2003 average
-0.1
2.5
0.8
0.8
1.8
3.3
-2.3
56 40
10
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
17
Market trends and developments- world prices -
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
80
110
140
170
200
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
US
D/to
nne
(whe
at, m
aize
)
150
200
250
300
350
US
D/to
nne
(ric
e)
Wheat
Maize
Rice
Rice prices to increase more significantly than wheat and maize
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
18
Market trends and developments- world prices -
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
100
150
200
250
300
350
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
US
D/to
nne
(see
ds, m
eals
)
200
300
400
500
600
700
US
D/to
nne
(oil)
Oilseeds
Oilseed meal
Veg. Oils
Nominal oilseed prices increase, but real prices flat or declining
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
19
Market trends and developments- world prices -
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
100
150
200
250
300
350
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
US
D/1
00kg
cw
e (b
eef)
50
75
100
125
150
175
US
D/1
00kg
cw
e (p
ork,
pou
ltry)
Beef Pork
Poultry
Meat prices to decline from their relatively high 2004 levels
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
20
Market trends and developments- world prices -
100
150
200
250
300
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
US
D/1
00
kg
Butter
Cheese
SMP
WMP
Dairy prices remain stable after dropping from their 2004 peaks
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
21
World prices remain low in real terms
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1986 2000 2014
US
D/t
Wheat Coarse grainsOilseeds Sugar
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1986 2000 2014U
SD
/10
0 k
g
Beef Pork Butter
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
22
Some issues and uncertainties (1)
• Trade affected by changing diets– Share of cereal imports declines as imports of
higher-value products increase– Increased importance of non-OECD exporters– South-south trade flows dominate in rice,
vegetable oil, sugar
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
23
Some issues and uncertainties (2)
• Numbers that are likely to be wrong:
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
CEREALS
• China’s imports– How much will they
allow?
OILSEEDS
• China’s demand– How much is
enough?
MEAT
• BSE – related import bans
affects beef trade
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
24
China’s grain imports???
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
02468
101214161820
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Mill
ion
tonn
es
Coarse grains Wheat Total cereals
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
25
China’s oilseed needs???
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80M
illio
n to
nnes
Consumption Imports
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
26
How will BSE affect trade in Canada and USA ????
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000K
T (c
.w.)
Canada + USA Net trade Canada exports Usa exports
OECD OCDEDirectorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
27
Risks:What is not in the numbers
• Biofuels– Embedded in the outlook but independent of
oil price or of policy incentives
• Accession beyond EU 25– Bulgaria and Romania
• Macroeconomic factors & yields– Trend growth rate and normal weather are
never observed
Sit
uat
ion
Ass
um
pti
on
sO
utl
oo
kIs
sues