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From Technologies to Markets
© 2020
Displays & Optics for AR & VR 2020
Market and Technology
Report 2020
Sample
2Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Part 1/3
Acronyms 05
Accepted definitions for AR, MR & VR 06
Scope of the report 07
Methodology & definitions 10
Report methodology 11
How we do it 12
About the authors 13
Companies cited in this report 14
What we got right, what we got wrong 15
The 3 page executive summary 16
Executive summary 20
Context 44
AR & VR market forecasts 62
o Headsets volumes
o AR: number of headsets
o AR: number of headsets per use case
o AR: optics technologies penetration rates
o AR: optics technologies penetration rates for waveguides
o AR: optics technologies lenses numbers
o AR: optics technologies lenses values
o AR: high refractive index wafer numbers
o AR: high refractive index wafer values
o AR: display engines penetration rates
o AR: microLED penetration rate
o AR: display engines numbers
o AR: display engines values
o VR: number of headsets
o VR: number of headsets per segment
o VR: display penetration rates
o VR: display numbers
o VR: display values
AR market trends 81
o The dream of the consumer market
o The potential of AR markets
o What does the consumer want?
o Why does the consumer want?
o AR use cases
o AR use cases for consumers
o AR market segmentation
o Scenario expectations for consumers
o For the consumer: performance
o For the consumer: form factor
o For the consumer: price point
o Consumer paths
o Optics for the consumer
o Display engines for the consumer
o How about the car?
o Beyond everything with holography
o Conclusions
3Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Part 2/3
AR industry 120
o OEM leaders and followers for the future?
o LCOS players
o MEMS based solution players
o OLED-on-Si players
o Strategy of OLED-on-Si companies
o MicroLED players
o Strategy of microLED companies
o Waveguide players
o Ecosystem analysis
o Tentative DOE waveguide supply chain
o Ecosystem analysis
o Apple as an enabler
o The move towards HOEs
o Company profiles
o Collaborations
o A word about regulations
AR technology trends 161
o The different elements of an AR headset
o Where are the critical parts
o Optics – technology description
o Regular optics
o Waveguides
o DOEs
o Waveguides comparison
o Display engines – technology description
o Comparison table, pros & cons for AR applications
o LCOS overview
o DLP overview
o OLED-on-Si overview
o MicroLED overview
o Optics and display engines compatibilities
o Technologies roadmaps
o Roadmaps for technologies
o Roadmaps for optics
o Roadmaps for display engines
o Waveguide optics – manufacturing and materials
o DOEs – material requirement
o DOEs – an introduction to nanoimprint lithography
o DOEs – manufacturing process concept
o DOEs – manufacturing challenges
o DOEs – glass supply
o DOEs – competitive analysis
o HOEs – material requirement
o HOEs – manufacturing process concept
o HOEs – high volume manufacturing
o The importance of optics – a Magic Leap One teardown
4Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Part 3/3
AR outlook 218
VR market trends 220
o Technologies to consider in a VR headset
o VR use cases
o A market more balanced than AR
o Different markets – applications and technology requirements
o Visual fidelity trends – improving the PPD
o Visual fidelity trends – improving the FOV
o Visual fidelity trends – improving the refresh rate
o General trend – going standalone
o Going standalone – the implications on displays
o Going standalone – the implications on optics
o Going standalone – the future of displays
o Going standalone – really standalone?
o Future development trends to address the market
o Future development paths for general adoption?
o The video-see-through VR – an AR mix
VR Industry 241
o Regular display players
o OLED-on-Si players
o MicroLED players
o MicroLED ecosystem
o The dominating players
o The traditional videogame console players’ strategy
o The PC players
o Display makers strategy – JDI
o Display makers strategy – AUO
o Display makers strategy – SDC
o Pico versus Oculus in the professional field
VR Technology trends 253
o Technology description
o A global system to consider
o FOV
o Pixel density
o Persistence
o Technology development paths
o Persistence
o Reaching the eye physiology
o Tracking the eye
o VAC
VR outlook 287
Related reports
About Yole Développement
5
AMOLED: Active Matrix OLED
AR: Augmented Reality
BLU: Back Lighting Unit
CF LCOS: Color Filter LCOS
CG: Computer Generated
CMOS: Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor
CNS: Central Nervous System
DLP: Digital Light Processing
DMD: Digital Micromirror Device
DOE: Diffractive Optical Element
DOF: Degrees Of Freedom
DSLR: Digital Single Lens Reflex
FFR: Fixed Foveated Rendering
FOV: Field Of View
FSC LCOS: Field Sequential Color LCOS
FSD: Fiber Scanning Display
GVS: Galvanic Vestibular Simulation
HDR: High Dynamic Range
HMD: Head mounted Device/Display
HOE: Holographic Optical Element
HRI: High Refractive Index
HVS: Human Vision System
IMU: Inertial measurement Unit
IPD: Inter Pupillary Distance
LCD: Liquid Crystal Display
LCOS: Liquid Crystal on Silicon
LED: (Inorganic) Light Emitting Diode
MR: Mixed Reality
MSRP: Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price
NIL: Nano Imprint Lithography
NIR: Near InfraRed
OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer
OLED: Organic Light Emitting diode
PBS: Polarizing Beam Splitter
PPD: Pixel Per Degree
PPI: Pixel Per Inch
PWM: Pulse Width Modulation
RGB: Red-Green-Blue
RIE: Reactive Ion Etching
RMLCM: Reactive Monomer Liquid Crystal Mix
ROE: Reflective Optical Element
SDE: Screen door Effect
SPAD: Single Photon Avalanche Diode
SRG: Surface Relief Grating
TFT: Thin Film Transistor
TIR: Total Internal Reflection
TOF: Time Of Flight
UHD: Ultra High Definition
VAC: Vergence Accommodation Conflict
VR: Virtual Reality
Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
ACRONYMS
6Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
ACCEPTED DEFINITIONS FOR AR, MR & VR
• A 100% artificial, computer-generated
simulation or display of a real-life
environment that immerses the users by
making them feel like they are experiencing
the simulated reality firsthand.
• VR requires a fully enclosed head mounted
display (HMD) that visually isolates the user
from the outside world. For a realistic and
immersive experience, the system should
offer a field of view and resolution closely
matching the capabilities of the human eye.
• Overlays simple information and computer-
generated (CG) images onto the real
world.
• There is little to no interaction between
the CG content and the user’s
environment.
• The display must not obstruct the real
world. It has to compete with ambient light
to generate digital information with similar
brightness as that seen in the real world.
Resolution and field of view requirements
(FOV) vary with the application.
• Overlays complex, often 3D computer-
generated (CG) images onto the real world.
• The CG content can interact with the
environment (objects in the room, wall,
vehicle, etc.). The system uses multiple
sensors to create a real time 3D modeling of
the environment and the CG content adapts
in real time to any change.
• Display requirement is similar to AR. A larger
FOV is usually desirable. Improved resolution
and brightness are likewise expected.
[1] This report focuses on Head Mounted Devices (HMDs) though both AR and MR can also be experienced on a hand-held cell phone, tablet (e.g.: “Pokémon Go”) and even in cars (HUDs).
Virtual Reality (VR)Mixed Reality (MR) [1]Augmented Reality (AR) [1]
7
Zine Bouhamri, PhD
As a Technology & Market Analyst, Displays, Zine Bouhamri, PhD is a member of the Photonics, Sensing & Display division at Yole Développement(Yole). Zine manages the day to day production of technology & market reports, as well as custom consulting projects. He is also deeply involved in the business development of the Displays unit activities at Yole.
Previously, Zine was in charge of numerous R&D programs at Aledia. During more than three years, he developed strong technical expertise as well as a detailed understanding of the display industry.
Zine is author and co-author of several papers and patents. Zine Bouhamri holds an Electronics Engineering Degree from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (France), one from the Politecnico di Torino (Italy), and a Ph.D. in RF & Optoelectronics from Grenoble University (France).
Contact: [email protected]
Pierrick Boulay
As part of the Photonics, Sensing & Display division at Yole Développement (Yole), Pierrick Boulay works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Solid State Lighting and Lighting Systems to carry out technical, economic and marketing analysis. Pierrick has authored several reports and custom analysis dedicated to topics such as general lighting, automotive lighting, LiDAR, IR LEDs, UV LEDs and VCSELs.
Prior to Yole, Pierrick has worked in several companies where he developed his knowledge on general lighting and on automotive lighting. In the past, he has mostly worked in R&D department for LED lighting applications. Pierrick holds a master degree in Electronics (ESEO – Angers, France).
Contact: [email protected]
Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Biographies & contacts
8
SCOPE OF THE REPORT (1/3)
Delves in detail into what drives the possible adoption of AR & VR: displays and optics, through technology, industry, markets and applications.
This report is a comprehensive survey of the use of Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality in headsets,providing an in-depth understanding of the displays and associated optical vision systems.
Provide an understanding of the current status of AR and VR in general, and more detail regarding displayand optical technologies:
• What are AR and VR? What are the key benefits? How do display considerations differ in this context? Whyare optics mixed into the display equation?
• What are the roadblocks? How challenging are they? What are the roadmaps to overcome them?
• Detailed analysis of key technological nodes: field of view, pixel density, persistence, étendue, opticalcombiner manufacturing, holographic and diffractive elements, microdisplay sources, efficiency, etc.
This report also reviews the global AR and VR industries and provides insights into the possible evolutionand the necessary technological developments for consumer adoption. The technological roadmapprovided herein will enable analysis by the reader.
For each application, market metrics are provided for displays and optics.
Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
9Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
SCOPE OF THE REPORT (2/3)
This report covers market forecasts, players, technologies and market trends for the following:
As the industry is mostly tracking the efforts on AR hardware, this report will mostly focus on AR.
Your needs go
further than this
report?
Contact us for a custom study:
AR smartglasses AR headsets Tethered VR headsets Untethered VR headsets
Focus on displays and optics! Little to no computing or sensing details.
Jade Bird Display Digilens WaveOptics
10Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
SCOPE OF THE REPORT (3/3)
Of course an AR headset is composed of several different parts, but the focus will be optics and display engines.
• Mainframe
• IC components (computing)
• Sensors (SLAM, IMU, eye-tracking)
• Power management
• Optical engines
• etc.• Optics
• Display engines
11Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
METHODOLOGIES & DEFINITIONS
Market
Volume (in Munits)
ASP (in $)
Revenue (in $M)
Yole’s market forecast model is based on the matching of several sources:
Information
Aggregation
Preexisting
information
12Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
REPORT METHODOLOGY
Market segmentation methodology
Market forecast methodology
Technology analysis methodology
13Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
HOW WE DO IT
INFORMATION
SYNTHESIS
Definition of the
topic of
investigation
For syndicated report
Topic of investigation defined
by Yole
For custom analysis
Topic of investigation defined
by the customer (with Yole)
INFORMATION
COLLECTION
(ie raw data)
Direct discussions /
interviews with key
industries in the
domain and along every
step of the supply chain
INFORMATION
ANALYSIS AND
PROCESSING
Feedback loop with the
industry to fine-tune
our analysis
Final analysis
Industry
landscape
Market
landscape
Technology
landscape
Application
landscape
14
4th Dimension Displays, Agc, Akonia Holographics, Aledia, Apple, Auo, Avegant, Bayer, Boe, Bosch, Canon, Castar, Ceres Holographics, Colour Holographic, Compound
Photonics, Corning, Daqri, Dell, Digilens, Dispelix, Emagin, Etri, Evg, Eyefluence, Facebook, Finisar, Fove, Fraunhofer, Glo, Google, Hamamatsu, Himax, Holoeye, Hoya, Hp, Htc, Idealens, Inkron, Intel, Itri, Jade Bird Display, Jdi, Konica Minolta, Kopin, Leap
Motion, Lenovo, Letinar, Lg, Limbak, Linq, Liteon, Luminit, Lumiode, Lumus, Magic Leap, Meta, Micledi, Microoled, Microsoft, Mira, Molecular Imprints, Nintendo, Nvidia,
Oakley, Oculus, Ohara, Olightek, Optinvent, Ostendo, Osterhout Design Group, Pico, Pimax, Playnitride, Plessey Semiconductors, Pupil Labs, Qualcomm, Raontech, Razer,
Rockwell Collins, Samsung, Schott, Sega, Seiko Epson, Sony, Starbreeze, Sumita, Syndiant, Texas Instruments, Theeyetribe, Tooz, Valve, Varjo, Vuzix, Waveoptics, Young
Optics and more.
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COMPANIES CITED IN THIS REPORT
15
• A battle between DOE & HOE
• MicroLED is being awaited by everyone
• Cost and form factor remain issues for adoption
• Magic Leap has underdelivered
• Standalone VR is the future and reception has been good
• LCD has a good penetration in VR
• Technical progress on optics has been faster than expected
• Expectations before 2023 were a bit too optimistic
• There may be an earlier market for lower quality AR headsets (performance)
• Consumer adoption of VR is not as fast as anticipated, the chasm has not been crossed
• Small form factor has some traction
WHAT WE GOT RIGHT, WHAT WE GOT WRONG
AR is on-track, VR is going slower than anticipated
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16
AR, VR, AR/VR?
There is no AR/VR.
There is AR. There is VR.
There is a potential link between them.
And that is it.
• Even though the industry continuously communicates on “AR/VR”, this makes very little sense.
• As will be illustrated, these two fields are totally different. Whether it is the technical challenges, the applications, themarkets addressed and so on, the distinctions are vast. It would be as if one said “cars/drones”.
Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
I would now like to address
the “AR/VR” market…
17
THE IMPORTANCE OF DISPLAYS AND OPTICS
As we are used to looking at high quality images, we cannot display a poor image in front of the eye of the consumer.
Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
• We are all children of the flat panel display industry,in the sense that we are used to been surroundedby top-notch high-quality displays (TVs, smartphonesand so on). Remember that most of our sensorialcues come from the vision.
• Therefore, displays and optics are of utmostimportance in the context of headsets: one cannotaccept the idea of having something that does notdeliver a proper image when it is right in front oftheir eyes.
• For that reason, most of the R&D effort has beenon displays and optics, hence our focus here.
(Illustration: article headline from extremetech.com, Aug 2019)
18
VR USE CASES
Main use cases for VR headsets
There are already many use cases for consumers, while professional use of VR is more limited.
Professionals
Consumers
Education
• xxx
• xxx
Healthcare
Industry
• Engineering
• xxx
• xxx
• Pain management
• Video games
• xxx
• xxx
• xxx
• xxx
• xxx
• xxx
• xxx
• xxx
• Music concertsEntertainment
• xxx
• xxx
• Medical education
• xxx
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19
AR USE CASES – THE APPLICATION MATRIX
A basic application segmentation: the consumer, and the rest
Many use cases already exist for industrial applications, whereas the killer use case still has to be found for consumers.
Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
Consumers
Education
• Job training
• xxx
• xxx
xxx
• xxx
LogisticsHealthcare
Manufacturing
• Assembly
• xxx
• xxx
• xxx
• xxx
• Patient
xxx
• xxx
• xxx
xxx
• xxx
xxx
• xxx
xxx
• xxx
xxx
• xxx
xxx
• xxx
• Tourist guide?
• xxx
• xxx
• Personal trainer?
• xxx
Professionals
20
WHAT DOES THE CONSUMER WANT?
It is crystal clear what the consumer wants: as an AR headset is on their face and to be used wherever, it needs to be stylish.
Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
• What is for sure is that the industry is asking the consumer to put something on their face. This becomes part ofown’s identity, so the design criteria will be of utmost importance: nobody wants to be seen in the street wearing abulky headset.
• On top of that, it will need to provide a compelling experience, and low visual quality will not be acceptable. Or, if itis, it will be at a very low price point.
• The value price point will be important too. When a typical smartphone can cost more than $1,000 while stillproviding lots of value, what can be the acceptable price for such a headset?
Stylish
Performant
Low cost
21
WHY DOES THE CONSUMER WANT?
It is much less obvious what the use case for the consumer could be?
Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
• The use cases for professionals are clearly defined and have been known for years now: logistics, safety, repair,training, treatment, education, etc.
• However, there is huge uncertainty on the consumer use case: why would someone put something on their head?What value can it bring them? Gaming? Tourism? Something more compelling?
Professionals Consumers
22
inside
THE TENTATIVE LINK DRAWN BETWEEN VR & AR
We can imagine it, it’s far-fetched in terms of performance and consumer expectation, but it could be a trend.
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AUGMENTED REALITY
VIRTUAL REALITY
can’t see around: dangerous!
heavy: uncomfortable!
Kind of a VR use case…
…in AR HMD, safety/comfort.
Trade off between cases: performance is not so good in terms of VR nor in terms of AR.
Alternative: video-see through “VR/AR” but loss of comfort.
still too bulky to wear outside
poor performance outside
23Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
Professional
dominates
Expansion in consumer market
Acceptable form factor,
better performance
Use case
breakthrough
Waveguide-like early pilot line
products with customers
In-house bulky headsets?
Smaller form factor headsets
2019Professional
markets dominate
<1M units
2021Small form factor
Increased consumer awareness
~1M units
Consumer market takeoff
Major OEMs getting into
the game
2023
AR MARKET TREND – SCENARIO EXPECTATIONS FOR CONSUMERS
24
OPTICS AND DISPLAY ENGINE COMPATIBILITIES
Roadmaps for technologies
Roadmaps are quite simple to follow: improve weak points to compete where the competing technologies have a strong point.
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OLED-on-Si1x MEMS
scanLCOS DLP MicroLED Inconvenience
Focus area
Roadmaps
DOE X X X X X
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
HOE X X X X X
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
ROE X X X X X
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Inconvenience
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Focus area
Roadmaps
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
XXX?
25
OPTICS AND DISPLAY ENGINE COMPATIBILITIES
Roadmaps for optics
All technologies are striving for reduced form factor, lower cost and higher performance.
Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
DOE
HOE
ROE
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
26
• 2021 will be the yearwhen the first- generationheadsets with lowerperformance dominate.
• 2023 is expected to be thetipping point when theOEMs jump in with highvolumes.
• We expect them to createa compelling valueproposition to convincethe consumer.
• Will Apple be ready tomake a move by this time?
AR FORECAST
Number of headsets
2023 is expected to be the tipping point.
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27
• Many companies areinvolved in the DOEbusiness (SRG based),so much so that itoverly dominates in theearly stages (thoughnever forget thatvolumes are very low).
• With the arrival ofOEMs, HOEs will gainmarket thanks to Applepossibly getting in thegame. Other HOEmanufacturers are alsoexpected to benefitfrom increased marketdemand.
AR FORECAST
Optics technologies distribution
With many people working on DOEs, we expect this technology to dominate as competition will be beneficial.
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28
• Total revenue for HRIwafers designed for ARheadsets is expected toreach a billion dollarsannually by 2026,providing the OEMssucceed in addressingthe consumer market.
• As a reference, here aresome 2019 revenuedata:
• ~xxxB$
• ~xxxB$
• ~xxxB$
• ~xxxB$
AR FORECAST
DOEs and HOEs, value of high refractive index glass wafers
Values are expected to be high, hence the intense effort by wafer suppliers to push this industry.
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29
• Incumbent technologies will be considered for lack of better choice, waiting for themicroLED opportunity to happen. DLP retains a higher share as it has brightness andcontrast advantages over LCOS. OLED-on-Si will be used for first-generation headsets.
AR FORECAST
Display engine penetration rates
MEMS, mostly DLP, dominates the microdisplay market for AR applications due to its brightness advantage over LCOS. MicroLEDs threaten this.
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30
AR FORECAST
Display engine revenue
MicroLEDs will still be expensive until they mature. This will not slow adoption down too significantly because of the differentiation they bring.
Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
31
Contact our
Sales Team
for more
information
MicroLED Displays 2019
3D Imaging & Sensing2020
MicroLED Displays –Intellectual Property Status &
Landscape 2020
Status of the MEMS Industry 2019
Displays and Optics for AR & VR 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
Yole Développement & System Plus Consulting
Magic Leap One –Augmented Reality
Headset
32About Yole Développement | www.yole.fr | ©2020
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