Disputed Elections and LegitimacyWhat comes after matters!

Dr. Jeff KeyAP Comparative Politics Workshop

Boston, MAApril 10, 2010

The Power of Elections

We invest elections with great significance … “By a democratic regime, we mean a set of

institutions that allow the citizens to choose the makers of public policy in free, competitive elections…”

“Countries with free and fair elections for the real policymakers and eligibility of all adults meet the minimum requirements for procedural democracy.”

Almond and Powell

…but give them little critical reflection.

Elections and Legitimacy

What comes AFTER elections is important!

Does acceptance of election outcomes reflect legitimacy?◦Even in authoritarian systems, elections

facilitate participation.

What if election outcomes are challenged?◦How the government responds to post-election

challenges impacts its legitimacy.

Post-election Protests & Government Response

Leaders of losing parties often challenge election results and promote protests that the government must address.

Failure to stop such protests undermines the government’s ability to rule and its legitimacy.

Challenged result

s

Post-electio

n protes

ts

Government response

Post-election Protests and Legitimacy

HOW the government addresses post-election protests is important.◦Can it be done without coercion?◦Is coercion needed?Post-election protests

No coercion

Reinforces legitimacy?

Coercion

Undercuts legitimacy?

Post-election Remedies Matter!

Election

Results challenged

Adjudicated by election courts or commission

Reinforces legitimacy?

No institutions for dispute resolution

Undercuts legitimacy?

Results accepted

Reinforces legitimacy?

Institutions and processes to resolve election disputes help to absorb conflict.

Forms…election commissions or courts

What to look for after elections…

Percentage of eligible votes cast◦Would you believe 100% participation?

Size of “gap” between winner and losers◦What’s sparks protests, close races or landslides?

Reports of post-election protests and government responses◦How widespread/intense are protests?◦Is force is used to suppress them?

Length of time between election date and date of final declaration of winner ◦Is a longer period “better”?

Three Cases

Mexico

• 2006

• Calderon win challenged

Nigeria

• 2007

• Yar’Adua win challenged

Iran

Mexico 2006

Turnout: 59%Winner: Filipe Calderon (35.89%)Closest rival: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador

(35.31%)Election date: July 2Confirmed: September 5 by the Electoral

Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary (TEPJF)

Nigeria 2007

Turnout: est. 57.5%Winner: Amadu Yar’Adua (70%)Closest rival: Muhammadu Buhari (18.72%)Election date: April 21Confirmed: April 23 by Independent National

Election Commission (INEC)

Iran 2009

Turnout: 85%Winner: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (62.63%)Closest rival: Mir-Hossein Mousavi (33.75%)Election date: June 12 Confirmed: June 29 by the Supreme Leader

Ali Khamenei (Guardian Council asked him to extend the required election complaint period an additional five days.)

Useful Election Websites

www.electionguide.orgwww.ifes.orgwww.iri.org/explore-our-resources/election

-watchwww.ndi.org/content/electionswww.cartercenter.org/peace/democracy/o

bserved.html#tablemuse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democra

cy/election_watch (1990-2000 only)