Disrupting the Future

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Dr. Joe WebbWhatTheyThink Economics & Research Center

Book Manufacturers’ Institute

Williamsburg, VAMay 4, 2010

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Agenda

The Economy and Why It Matters Less Than You Think

Commercial Printing Industry: Where It’s Been and Where It’s Headed

Media Shifts and What They Mean Industry Restructuring:

Pain & Gain? Just Pain?

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Economic Snapshot

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Uncle Ben's Great Cash Giveaway

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Inflation Adjustment Reveals True Trends: Use These Multipliers

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The Good & the Bad Of It ISM reports imply +5-6%

economic growth Inflation tame at consumer

level Business investment in new

technologies High cash levels of

corporations for new investment, and new initiatives

Commodity prices rising, signaling increased activity

Inflation worries Fed will be too slow

Trade troubles Mexico, Brazil, Canada

Weak dollar Stubborn unemployment Disposable personal income

moving sideways Upcoming tax changes shift

income-producing efforts to 2010, and won’t be duplicated in 2011

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The Recovery of 1980-1982 Digital technology reduced the cost of print, especially

process color, opening new markets and shorter run lengths for color

Computer technologies improve data capture and management, stimulating direct marketing

Interest rates were high, and decreases through the 1980s allowed for better cash flows and financing strategies that made investment easier

Declining inflation, investment incentives

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The Recovery of 2010 Alternatives to print in the form of digital media capture

the hearts and minds of communicators because of costs and instant feedback

Mobile technology creates communications freedom Interest rates are low, and will be rising Inflation likely to rise, no general investment incentives Computer & communications investments stimulate

methods that avoid print Print is viewed as environmentally unwise

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Is Commercial Printing Business Getting Better?or

Orphaned Volume in a New Home?

Remember – there are approximately 3-4,000 fewer print establishments since September 2008 when results were this high

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WTT Forecasts (2010$)

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Commercial Printing vs. Book Publishing Employment (Index 2005=100)

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Ad-based Media in Sharp Decline

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Change in Magazine Circulation, Population Growth, and Magazine Titles, 1970-2008

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My How We’ve Changed

• Almost 3 years ago...• no iPhone• no Twitter• Facebook was obscure web

site

• In 2010• 34+ million iPhones• 106+ million Twitter users• 400+ million Facebook users• 100+ million Facebook

Mobile users

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Who Would Have Thought?

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Morgan Stanley: Global Social MediaNow > E-Mail in Users & Time

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The Nature of Print is Changing

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More Choices, More Opportunities?www.tinyurl.com/mediachart

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Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #1:

Stay ahead of the clients;ignore the competitors

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Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #2:

Traditions and mismatchof capital

with marketplacelimit the ability toimplement change

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AOL/Time Warner 1/10/2000

• Steve Case– “This is a historic moment in which new media has

truly come of age.”

• Gerald M. Levin– “…unprecedented and instantaneous access to

every form of media and to unleash immense possibilities for economic growth, human understanding and creative expression.”

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Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #3:

Focus on client's totalcommunications ROI,

especially for non-print initiatives

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Is This Really New?

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How Might Publishing Change?

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The Cultural Shift that isUnderway in the Printing Business

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Shifting from “Getting” to “Creating”

Getting Business Known products

and suppliers Buyer determined time

of need and nature of purpose

Easy measurement

Creating Business Identify problems Expert advisor, teacher Problem and solution

are not obvious Credibility and trust

of the supplier Leap of ROI faith

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Read These and Preparefor 2015 and Beyond

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The “New” Printers

A focus on non-advertising communications; implementation and deployment

Digital printing technology plays essential role in evolving communications practices

Shops will be smaller, with smaller staffs, technology intensive, highly productive

Craft is redefined: data management

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In Summary Print's Old Guard has had a horrible decade 2011-2020 will see historic industry upheaval

Traditional markets will shrink to specialties On-demand technologies will be rampant Widening array of digital communications devices Robust media convenience at low cost

Hunkering down is not the answer

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There is No Such Thing as “Business As Usual”

Don’t wait for the new “rules” to be written;write them yourself

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THANK YOUVERY MUCH!

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http://tinyurl.com/disruptingresources

•Download the PDF with live hyperlinks•Download “Renewing the Printing Industry”•Download PDFs and Powerpoint files used in “Disrupting”•Oce is distributing book at customer events in 2010

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