APRIL 2015Cushman & Wakefield | Commercewww.comre.com

ISSUE 121 APRIL 2015

A monthly report produced for COMMERCE REAL ESTATE SOLUTIONS by Jim Wood, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah

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UTAH’S ECONOMY

DISSECTING UTAH’S DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH

Utah is well known for its demographic growth. For decades the state has been one of the fastest growing states in the country. And when compared to the 11 western states Utah ranks near the top. From 2010 to 2014 the population of Utah increased by 6.5 percent, tied with Colorado for the most rapidly growing western state during the economic recovery, Table 1. Utah’s demographic growth however is unique. In Utah demographic growth is

APRIL 2015

Utah Economy Issue 121 April 2015

TABLE 1: POPULATION CHANGE IN WESTERN STATES 2010-2014

2010 2014 % Chg 2010-2014.

Numeric Change 2010-2014

Utah 2,763,885 2,942,902 6.5% 179,017

Colorado 5,029,324 5,355,866 6.5% 326,542

Arizona 6,392,310 6,731,484 5.3% 339,174

Nevada 2,700,692 2,839,099 5.1% 138,407

Washington 6,724,543 7,061,530 5.0% 336,987

Idaho 1,567,652 1,634,464 4.3% 66,812

California 37,254,503 38,802,500 4.2% 1,547,997

Oregon 3,831,073 3,970,239 3.6% 139,166

Wyoming 563,767 584,153 3.6% 20,386

Montana 989,417 1,023,579 3.5% 34,162

New Mexico 2,059,192 2,085,572 1.3% 26,380

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

TABLE 2: NATURAL INCREASE AS PERCENT OF POPULATION GROWTH WESTERN STATES

Population Change

2010-2014

Natural Increase

2010-2014

Natural Increase as % of

Population Growth.

Arizona 339,174 157,023 46.3%

California 1,547,997 1,102,923 71.2%

Colorado 326,542 138,257 42.3%

Idaho 66,812 47,229 70.7%

Montana 34,162 13,082 38.3%

Nevada 138,407 61,047 44.1%

New Mexico* 26,380 45,255 100.0%

Oregon 139,166 52,340 37.6%

Utah 179,017 153,509 85.8%

Washington 336,987 155,936 46.3%

Wyoming 20,386 12,957 63.6%

*Net out-migration of 18,886 therefore all population increase is due to natural increase

largely driven by natural increase (birth minus deaths) not net in-migration, a well-worn observation. Natural increase and net migration are the two components of population change.

Natural Increase - The extent to which Utah’s recent demographic growth has relied on natural increases is worth examining. Eighty-six percent of Utah’s population growth in the past four years is due to natural increase, Table 2. For the western states region natural increase, on average, accounted for about 60 percent of demographic growth. Natural increase contributed the least to population growth in Montana and Oregon while in California and Idaho it played a much larger role but still well short of Utah’s 86 percent. New Mexico is an exception or anomaly. New Mexico has had net out-migration hence all population growth is due to natural increase.

Net Migration – In six of the 11 western states more than half of the population growth since 2010 was due to net in-migration, Table 3. Sixty-one percent of the population increase in Oregon was from net in-migration whereas in Utah it was only 14 percent. Utah’s high rate of natural increase systematically relegates migration to a lesser role but a 14 percent share is unusually low. During the 1990s net in-migration accounted for 40 percent of the population growth in Utah while in the 2000-2010 decade 30 percent of the state’s demographic growth was from net in-migration.

Currently net in-migration in Utah is about 10,000 individuals annually, Figure 1. Nationally, mobility has been

job growth of 55,000—a 4.0 percent growth rate—and yet have net in-migration of only 10,000 individuals.

The Great Recession has had demographic consequences for Utah. Rates of both net in-migration and natural increase were affected by the recession. Utah’s birth rate fell throughout the recession and in 2013 hit a 10 year low and as noted, migration has been unusually slow given Utah’s job growth. Consequently population growth over the past six years has averaged 1.5 percent, reminiscent of the 1984-1989 slow growth period, Figure 2. The forecast for natural increase shows a higher birth rate in 2015 however, net in-migration is not expected to pick-up appreciably. Therefore, it will likely be a few more years before Utah’s annual population growth rate exceeds the historic average since 1980 of 2.0 percent.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

TABLE 3: NET MIGRATION AS PERCENT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGEPopulation

Change2010-2014

Net Migration2010-2014

Net Migration as %

of Change.

Arizona 339,174 172,848 51.0%

California 1,547,997 459,574 29.7%

Colorado 326,542 183,324 56.1%

Idaho 66,812 18,656 27.9%

Montana 34,162 20,502 60.0%

Nevada 138,407 74,737 54.0%

New Mexico 26,380 -18,886 Negative

Oregon 139,166 85,464 61.4%

Utah 179,017 25,597 14.3%

Washington 336,987 179,873 53.4%

Wyoming 20,386 7,195 35.3%

UTAH’S ECONOMY

hurt by the Great Recession. Despite very strong job growth Utah is not attracting workers from other states. A low level of net in-migration is likely a contributing factor in the very low unemployment rate, talk of labor shortages, and the slow recovery in home building. It is remarkable to have

50,000

1980

1982

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1986

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1998

2000

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000

-20,000

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

1955

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2013

1967

FIGURE 1: NET IN-MIGRATION IN UTAH FIGURE 2: ANNUAL % CHANGE IN POPULATION IN UTAH

This information is provided complements of

Michael M. Lawson President ofCushman & Wakefield | Commerce

170 South Main Street, Suite 1600Salt Lake City, Utah 84101

Cushman & Wakefield | Commerce, headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah is an independently owned and operated member of the Cushman & Wakefield Alliance with offices throughout Utah, Nevada, Washington and Idaho. The firm partners with its sister company Cushman & Wakefield | NorthMarq to provide innovative commercial real estate solutions to occupier and investor clients, offering transaction services, capital markets services, occupier and investor services, and real estate advisory. Together the firms manage more than 52 million sq. ft. of retail, industrial, and office assets, have annual revenues of more than $100 million, and employ more than 750 professionals. Learn more at www.comre.com; www.cushwakenm.com. C&W | Commerce and C&W | NorthMarq are part of the Cushman & Wakefield platform, which is the world’s largest privately-held commercial real estate services firm with 248 offices in 58 countries globally. www.cushmanandwakefield.com.This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. It does not purport to be a complete description of the markets or developments contained in this material. The information on which this report is based has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified such information and we do not guarantee that the information is accurate or complete. Published by Corporate Communications.

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