Upload
maude-cross
View
216
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
History and current state of GB opinion on the EU 1.
Citation preview
Disunited kingdom? British attitudes to the EUJohn Curtice and Rachel Ormston
2 December 2015, House of Commons
2
Where is the public on Europe?
Divided overall?Divisions between countries?Divisions within countries?
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/http://ukandeu.ac.uk/
History and current state of GB opinion on the EU
1.
The Long-Term Trend
Source: Ipsos MORI4
The Referendum Race So Far
5
The Partisan Divide
Source: Average of most recent BMG, ICM, Survation & YouGov polls 6
Attitudes in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
2.
888
England is indeed more Eurosceptic
Source: British Election Study, post-election internet panel (May 2015), excl. ‘don’t knows’
56%
44%
61%
39%32%
68%
Stay in the EU Leave the EU
England Scotland Wales
8
999
Confirmed by multiple polls and surveys - 1
Source: Average across recent polls in each country, excluding ‘don’t knows’
52% 48%55%
45%36%
64%75%
25%
Stay in the EU Leave the EUEngland Scotland Wales Northern Ireland
9
101010
Confirmed by multiple polls and surveys - 2
Source: Survation, YouGov, Ipsos MORI, excluding ‘don’t’ knows’
Leave EU %
52% 52%42%47%
25%35%36%
Survation, Sept 2015 YouGov, Sept 2015 Ipsos MORI, Oct-Nov2015
England Scotland Wales
10
11
England-Scotland gap not new (but widening?)
% think Britain's long-term policy should be to leave the EU
26 261814 16 19 17
171419
11 11 13100
1020304050
1999 2000 2003 2004 2005 2013 2014
%
England Scotland
Source: British and Social Attitudes surveys
121212
Tipping point for disharmony?
Source: Ormston, 2015
47.5% in England vote to remain
Less than this and England could take rest of UK out of EU
Between 47.5% and 49.9%, England could be kept in the EU by Scotland, Wales and NI
* Based on S, W and NI vote matching mean of recent polls
12
13
Why is England more EU-sceptic?NOT demographic differencesPatterns by age, education and class
similar across the UK (more on this later)
If anything, structural differences ought to push opinion in opposite direction
141414
Party politics matter
Source: British Election Study, post-election internet panel (May 2015).
Leave by GE 2015 vote and country %
17%27% 23%
93%
27%
55%
94%
30%28%
51%
93%
11%22%
54%
Cons. Labour Lib Dem SNP Plaid C UKIP
England Scotland Wales
14
15
Party politics matterCountry difference NOT statistically
significant once difference in GE vote controlled for
Direction? GE vote influenced by EU views?
BUT lukewarm enthusiasm for EU refPolitical leadership may be key to
outcome AND level of divergence
161616
Identity matters (in England especially)
Source: British Election Study, Wave 4
63% of ‘Very strongly English’ would vote to leave
41% of ‘Very strongly Scottish’ would vote to leave
45% of ‘Very strongly Welsh’ would vote to leave
16
17
Though perhaps not European identity 1
% Think of self as 'European'
13 15141212 12 12 1211910 12 1711
1612 14 12 11
01020304050
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
%
Source: British Social Attitudes
181818
Though perhaps not European Identity 2
Source: British Social Attitudes 2014
Views on EU by whether think of self as European92%
51%40%
8%
European Not EuropeanContinue Withrdraw
18
How attitudes vary between different groups within the UK 3.
No Consistent Gender Gap
20
The Age Gap
Younger = 18-34 except YouGov 18-39; Older = 65+ except Survation 55+, YouGov 60+21
The Class Difference
22
The Education Backdrop
Sources: BES: British Election Study Face to Face Post-Election Survey; BSA: British Social Attitudes 2014
23
EU referendum is exposing a divide between a younger, educationally well qualified Britain and an older, less educationally accomplished one.
Reflects a gap between those who are educationally and culturally comfortable with immigration and global capitalism and those who are not.
Creates a potential challenge for Tory Euroscepticism and Labour Euroenthusiasm.
A Social Divide
24
If you want further information or would like to contact the team:E. [email protected]; [email protected] Visit us online: natcen.ac.uk, http://whatukthinks.org/eu/Follow us on twitter: @whatukthinks
Thank you