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11/4/2017
1
Sustainable Settings was formed in order to create a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable society, one
that can provide permanent prosperity within the biophysical constraints of the real world, in a way that is equitable to all of humanity, other species, and future generations. Sustainable Settings brings together many
disciplines to create a whole systems approach to agriculture and learning.
Est. 1997Carbondale, CO
Lessons in building a whole‐ranch organism…
Microenterprise
Pioneer Ditch Pasture
0.0
40.0
80.0
120.0
160.0
200.0
PPM
Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium Nutrient Value
2015
2017
Diverse Animal Program
• Small Raw Dairy• Beef, Veal, Lamb, Pork, Broilers, Turkeys
• 200 Egglayers• Benefits of multiple manure producers
Pyrenees’ guarding Chicken tractor
Future milk cows & Veal calves
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2
Rotational Grazing
• Ideal Stock density often traded for other grazing herds to finish• Various nutritional requirements require decisions • Moving far distances and its issues• Calf‐On operation• Record keeping during paddock changing
11/4/2017
3
Composting Manures from Yards
• Cow• Sheep• Horse• Goat• Pig• Chicken, Turkey, Duck• intermingled
• Wood Chips• Sawdust• Leaves• Straw• Hay Waste• Garden cuttings• Customers bring their kitchen compost
• Ground Basalt Rock• Azomite• Kelp• Moisture control• Windrow making• Temp Monitoring• Turning 2‐3x• Microenterprise• Spreading
• NRCS Support• P. A. Yeoman
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4
Guernsey /Jersey/Dutch Belt/Brown Swiss/Normandy
Hybrid Vigor – Heterosis
The tendency of a crossbred individual to show qualities superior to those of both parents
Setting a standard for Quality / Creating a market within one
• A2/A2• Clean water• 12‐Stones Organic Free‐Choice Mineral (www.abcplus.biz)
• Icelandic Kelp, Redmond Salt• Intergenerational Grazing• Unhaltered / Chemical‐free• Cotton filter• Bulk tank• Sanitize with 185 degree water• $20 gallon
Creating highly engaged customers• Volunteering• Mentorship and Education• Observing and Learning• Explaining the hidden inputs• Taking time out to talk to people• Social media, Facebook & Instagram
Lessons in Buildinga Whole Ranch Organism
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Sustainable Settings is an entrepreneurial non-profit organization that inspires people and
communities to embrace integrated solutions for sustainable development
a community asset
“Sustainable Settings’ lamb, and other food, tastes better because it is better for the land and the planet.
This shining example of land stewardship, experiential education, and whole-systemsthinking and action is a wonderful asset to our community.”
Amory B. Lovins, RMI
Sustainable Settings Ranch
• 244-acres w/ senior water rights
• preservation of agricultural heritage, 1881 homestead
• est. conservation easement
• set historic covenants
• permanent home for Sustainable Settings
building anisland of health:
diversity balance &health
...in all systems
building soil health
livestock on rotation
honoring the life in the soil
ranch is a super organism
Agronauts/’agro, not/ An. Greek: agro – field, nuat- navigate
hard data: 2014-15
• microbial activity + 79%• organic CO2 + 16%
or + 98 lbs./ acre• organic N 30 to 45 ppm
or + 47%• organic P 13 to 36 ppm
or + 187%• organic K 13 to 24 ppm
or + 93%
11/4/2017
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stewardship… our job
building an arena for life to do it’s best work…
assembling quiver of stewardship practices that work for you where you are
IPM – building habitat for beneficials
implementing alternatives: methane digester
Green Building:local materials/ practical demonstrations
Whole Systems Consulting
no rulesno formulas
specific solutions forspecific places& people
Animal Welfare
SustainableSettings’Consult on New Dairy Barn
& hosted two public lectures
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Educational Outreach
a place where people of all ages learn:
what is Sustainable Settings?
CU Architecture and Planning Dept.Applied Green Building-7 semesters 1999-2006
field days
re-skilling workshops:“wild fermentation” w/Sandor Katz 2011
an abundant
future:
mentoring the next
generation of land
stewards …we want their minds!
we already have your children’s hearts
11/4/2017
8
subversive curriculum: telling a new story to empower youth for the change ahead
whole systems thinking modeling a possible future
350+ hives in the valley since 2007
Training Bee Guardians Phenomenon vs Phone-omenon
Hands-on Collaborationson-ranch programs with Ascendigo
Community
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Interviewing Practical Visionaries
GrassRoots TV Community Access
Honoring the Pioneers Harvest Festival
Organic Farmer of the Year Awards
A-2 Raw Dairy Co-op
Economic engine:
Milking 12 Guernsey cows…with goal of 20.
better than projections:
opened Cow Shares @ $150/ share & boarding fees @ $64/month.
Currently 120 families -with a wait list micro- enterprise: Demeter certified vegetables for
CSA, Chef Collaborations & ranch store
11/4/2017
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Innovating Farmer/Chef Collaborations On-Ranch dinners and In-Restaurant weekly specials
-Ryan Hardy Ex. Chef Little Nell, Aspen, CO - 2005
Farm to Table since 1997
100% Grassfed Biodynamic Raw A-2 Single Udder Butter
hay ice cream!
• dairy now 9 years old – A-2 herd• Demeter Certified – Biodynamics• NRCS - hard data on pasture health
return!
nature’s economy
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11
OR
this
this insanity
efficiency gave us this and this
and this BIG PHARMA
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12
efficiency vs effectivenesseffectiveness gives us this
Andre Voisin
fertility is underfoot - h. d. thoreau
tonnage over nutrient density?
how do we measure success?
quantity / quality
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“...you guys beat old Blue Hill in our raw milk blind taste test… Thanks for schooling us. Please come speak to the our farmers and staff and have a bite at Stone Barns.”-Dan Barber of Blue Hill Stone Barn, NY
“…the flavor profile of your product is untouchable...” -Barclay Dodge of BOSQ, Aspen, CO
Empirical Data:
3rd party laboratory soil tests:NRCS Haney and PLFA soil
HARD DATA…?
trophic layers
0.
500.
1000.
1500.
2000.
2500.
�total Bacteria Biomass � total Fungi Biomass
LOWLINE 2017
PIONEER 2017
fungi:bacteria ratio0.3303
long chain carbons, cellulose - the big ones - woody parts of plants
…lignin 53 carbons.
cows can digest cellulose because their guts are amazing!
ort chain carbons are sugars, glucose, c6h12
the sheep
11/4/2017
14
Fungi is very good at breaking down long chain carbons, insects, or shredders, eat
woody materials. The manure of the insects provide the Bacteria food, who like shorter chain carbons. Sheep are
predated on by protezoans, wolves, we need a system of predators and prey.
Remove predators, disrupt the systems. Trophic layers *reference ward pdfs
soil respiration
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
LOWLINE 2014 LOWLINE 2015 LOWLINE 2016 LOWLINE 2017 PIONEER 2014 PIONEER 2015 PIONEER 2016 PIONEER 2017
Soil Respiration 2014 - 2017
PP
M C
O2
Pro
duce
d
Field and Year of Test
organic matter= % organic matter we inherited
0.
3.
6.
9.
12.
GRAIN 2016 IN GARD 2016 OUT GARD 2016 LOWLINE 2016 PIONEER 2016
Per
cent
by
LO
I
Low Line Ditch Pasture
0.0
37.5
75.0
112.5
150.0
Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium Nutrient Value
2015
2017
the horizontal
be careful of what you know…
it might get in your way
11/4/2017
15
Permaculture Land Intensivew/ Scott Pittman 2007
Est. Keylines w/Yeoman’s Plow
passive durable and simple
it all hinges on affection
-wendell berry
Don’t take my word for anything,
try it.
see for yourself….
the vertical
just because we can’t imagine it yet… doesn’t mean it isn’t so.
• genius loci
• spirit of place
• the seen and the unseen
• terroir
everything matters
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Biodynamics – Creating a whole-farm organism honoring All of the Life: the horizontal and the vertical for whole health & nutrition
whole ranch individuality
As a whole organism each element functions as an organ
& the whole is greater than the sum of its parts
the herd is an organ
the biodynamic compost organ
mother/earth/ father/ light/ quality q
polarities
a homeopathy
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meet the nut job down the road
research: the bison gesture
turn on the herd undergroundtrillions of staff!
biodynamic seed bath trials TEST!
Rose’s yogurt• root day • fruit day
what?
• leaf day• flower day
the biodynamic planting calendar
rhythms - the farmer’s almanac
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broad scale applications = flavor= health= solution
food is a by-producthealth in the soil is the solution
be brave…nature is waiting for you
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ROIs
there is nothing like something profound
blowing in the wind
courageAlpine Bank Andreas and Associates Aspen Brewing Co Aspen Center for Environmental Studies Aspen Community School Aspen Country Day School Aspen Schools AsNaturopathic Aspen Parks and Recreation Department, Inc American Renewable Energy Day The Aspen Times Aspen Skiing Company Audubon Expedition Institute Backyard Hives Basalt Elementary Big B’s Delicious Orchards Boy Scouts and Cub Scouts Carbondale Clay Center Carbondale Community Events Carbondale EconomiLocalization Carbondale Schools Carbondale Food Council Central Rocky Mountain Permaculture Institute Chelsea Green Publishing Cole West Builders, Inc. Colorado Department of Corrections (Rifle) Heavy Equipment Program Colorado Department of Transportation Colorado Division of Wildlife Engineering Section (Denver) Colorado DOW Fish Hatchery Colorado Governor’s Office for Energy Management and Conservation Colorado Rocky Mountain School COMPASS Cooking School of Aspen CreativeBuilding Systems Crystal River Meats Crystal River West Elementary Culinary School of the Rockies Darnauer Communications Design Workshop Eagle Springs Organics Early Childhood Center Earthworks / Western Slope Aggregates Garfield & Hecht Attorneys Good Earth Landscaping Glenwood Schools Grand River Consulting GraybeaArchitects Greenline Architects Holy Cross Electric, CO Home School Network edible Aspen magazine Grassroots TV Sustaining Tomorrow Today Public forums on Localizing Food & Energy Green Economy Lectures & panelists Film series Field days Sustainable Kids Summer Camp Corporate Retreats Farm to Table Tours SavoryInstitute Wildlife Protection Solutions Keynote Talks on theState of the World Intertribal Council on Utility Policy in Rose Bud, SD Internet Outfitters Jack Rabbit Hill VineyardJaywalker Lodge John Pattillo Engineering KDNK Community Access Radio LightHearted Ranch Logan School of Creative Learning Marble Charter School Michael FullerArchitects Mountain Valley Developmental Services Meyers & Co. Architectural Metals Natural Resource Conservation Services Natural Systems International National Weather Service/Weather Spotter Program OakStone Ventures Pangea Organics, Inc. PartPoint, Inc. Patagonia Pella Windows Permaculture Institute of Santa Fe, NM PinMonkey Solutions Pitkin County Colorado Community Development & Environmental Health Pitkin County Community Office for Resource Efficiency, CORE Pitkin County Sheriff’s Office Pitkin County Office of Solid Waste Management Pitkin County Open Space and Trails Plum TV Prescott College The Pullman Restaurant Ravenheart Gallery Restaurant Six89 Roaring Fork Biodiesel Cooperative Roaring Fork Food Policy Council Roaring Fork High School Roaring Fork Leadership Roaring Fork Outdoor Volunteers Roaring Fork Teacher Education Project Roaring Fork Transportation Authority Rocky Mountain Institute Savory Institute Sewell Ranch Schmueser Gordon MeEngineering, Inc. Slow Food Roaring Fork Slow Money Solar Flair Thermal Systems Sol Energy Solar Energy International Sopris Foundation’s State of the World ConfereThe Stepstone Center Susan’s Home Daycare Terra Link Structures, Inc Third Street Center Thompson Divide Coalition Toklat Gallery Town of Carbondale True NatuHealing Arts University of Colorado, Boulder/Architecture and Planning Department US Green Building Council Valley Resource Management Vectra Bank Waldorf School the Roaring Fork Leonard Weinglass & Boogies Western State College at Gunnison Wheelock College Wildwood School Woody Creek Ceramic Studio Wyly CommunArt Center Western Slope Aggregates, Inc Whole Foods Yampah High School Youth Zone
folks we work with
many thanks
Board of DirectorsPeter Hawkins, ChairmanMike Stranahan, Vice ChairmanRoss Jacobs, TreasurerRose L. Le Van, SecretaryBrook Le Van
Board EmeritusAdam LewisPeter B. LewisCavanaugh O’LearyBen Walton
National Advisory BoardAmory Lovins Bill Browning Paul Hawken Wes Jackson John Todd Peter Warshall Susan Maxman Clary Illian Scott Pittman Lucy Lippard PeteBane Trina Paulus Elizabeth Plotke-Giordani George Stranahan
Emeritus Advisory Board Randy Udall Gerry Eskin
11/4/2017
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assessing the predicament
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Difference between available nitrogen v potential nitrogen. Organic nitrogen is what will become N once the microbes get to it, prevents excessive dumping of N because it takes into account the work our trillions will do. Where is it coming
from: columns from test that are important : N min, TOTAL ORGANIC
N, inorganic is plant available Nevolution: how can specific geometries
promote optimum expressions in our food?
Run-on-the-Sun
Staff Housing…
What are we capable of?How can buildings enhance our lives?
buildings as finely tuned instruments
based on harmonics of the golden mean
11/4/2017
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photosynthesis
CO2 + 2H2O + photons → [CH2O] + O2 + H2O
carbon dioxide + water + light energy → carbohydrate + oxygen + water
Trophic layers are energy levels, kicking off the food chain, sun to
decomposers (micro), then to slightly less micro, then organisms,
then birds and beetles,grasses and forms to things we eat
and drink
there are no pestsno weeds
no enemies
we need to stop killing the messengers
Nature is waiting for usto do the right thing
11/4/2017
1
Grassfed Opportunities
Calhan, Coloradowww.HeritageBelleFarms.com
Cowboy Hat
Cowboy Boots
Historic Barn
11/4/2017
2
Plan Risks
• Do your homework
• Not for the novice
Website/Online Store
Restaurants
Delivery/Arranged Meets
Farmers Markets
11/4/2017
3
FACT’s 2017 Fund‐a‐Farmer Grants
Food Animal Concerns Trust (FACT) provides grants up to $2,500 to qualifying farmers who need assistance in improving the welfare of their farm animals. FACT offers two types of grants: Pasture Improvement Grants and Certification Grants.
PASTURE IMPROVEMENT GRANT
• Is your project designed to help you transition to a pasture‐based system and/or improve your animals’ access to well‐managed pasture?
CERTIFICATION GRANT
• Is your project designed to help you meet a specific certification standard and achieve certification from American Grassfed, Animal Welfare Approved, Certified Humane, Certified Naturally Grown, Global Animal Partnership (Levels 4‐5) or USDA Organic?
• Applications must be submitted online by 11:59pm CST on December 4, 2017. Grants will be awarded in January 2018. Please contact Larissa McKenna, FACT’s Humane Farming Program Director, at [email protected] or at (773) 525‐4952 with any questions after reviewing these guidelines.
• https://foodanimalconcernstrust.org/grants/
11/4/2017
1
Regenerating Landscapes: Back to the
FutureThe Colorado Section of the Society for Range
Management and Colorado StateUniversity
Who We Are
American Grassfed Association is the first and only producer-driven, third-party-audited Grassfed certification in the U.S.
The producers of AGA are committed to creating quality products and giving back to the land and their communities.
“Take two grass-fed steaks and call me in the morning.”
The Wall Street Journal said this about grassfed in 2004:
Since 2009, AGA certification has been recognized by consumer groups as a meaningful measure of grassfed authenticity, and Certified AGA Producers benefit from consumer confidence in the AGA label.
AGA standards encompass four areas:
1. Feeding protocol -- 100 percent forage for the life of the animal2. Natural behaviors -- animals live on pasture with no confinement 100
percent of the time3. No antibiotics or hormones ever4. All animals are born and raised on U.S. family farms
AGA standards encourage producers to maintain healthy pastures to build soil carbon, provide wildlife habitat, and encourage the natural behavior of the herd. It’s the seal that certifies that the product on the shelf has been raised from birth to bar-code without ever seeing a feedlot or confined feeding.
11/4/2017
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AGA standards provide an achievable blueprint for optimal animal health and wellness.
AGA standards help to preserve small family farms and restore thriving rural communities.
American Grassfed now has standards for :
Beef, Bison, Lamb and GoatDairy
And Monogastrics – Pork ( Poultry coming)
What We Do
AGA educates producers through conferences, field days, and networking.
AGA educates chefs, consumers, and other end-users by attending conferences like EcoFarm, ShiftCon, the Chefs Collaborative, Savory Institute, Slow Meat, and others.
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AGA maintains a presence on social media, and the AGA website provides information about grassfed research, nutrition, cooking, and news, as well as a listing of Certified AGA Producers.
In addition, AGA’s print news and monthly e-newsletters, and active social media presencekeep producers and consumers informed about issues and offer producerprofiles, funding opportunities, industry news, book reviews, recipes, and other timely and pertinent information.
AGA serves as a conduit for producers to connect with each other and with markets interested in their products. We help our members developnew supply chains, marketing collaborations, and other opportunities in the marketplace.
AGA collaborates with like-minded organizations such as Savory Institute, Holistic Management International, NRCS, SRM, Slow Food USA,The Livestock Conservancy, The Land Institute, The Berry Center, and others to promote regenerativeagriculture, responsible animal husbandry and a healthier and more sustainable meat systemfor consumers and ranchers and farmers.
AGA advocates on behalf of grassfed producers and rural communities with USDA and other government agencies.
Working cooperatively, We can continue the tradition of centuries of responsible land management.Educating consumers how proper use of land for grazing, and the proper care of grazing animals can benefit the land and the environmentProviding markets for the products of these responsible land stewards.Educating ranchers on how to interact with consumers and how to place their products in the market place.
American Grassfed Association
469 South Cherry Street, Suite 220Denver, CO 80246877-774-7277www.americangrassfed.org
11/4/2017
1
The Future Will Bring Us Back
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.
-Charles Darwin
Intellectual Polyculture
• More tech, more human
• Enable consistency and differentiation
• Eliminate and regenerate work
Back to the Future
More tech, more human• What is technology good at?
– Repeating simple, repetitive tasks quickly and accurately– Not taking breaks, not asking for pay
• What are humans good at?– Creativity and meaning– Decisions and judgment– Nurturing, providing care, empathy– Enjoying life with each other
You are the most valuable asset on your operation
11/4/2017
2
Things become services, ownership becomes access
• Cars > Uber/Lyft
• Hotel > Airbnb
• Music > Spotify
• Farm > infrastructure-as-a-service
• Land > grazing-as-a-service
The future is:• Connected• Open• Sharing• Learning• Nimble• Creative• Evolving
Regenerative careers will be knowledge based
• Carbon drawdown supply chain• Watershed / landscape
regeneration services• Bison / beef terroir sommelier• Soil carbon systems modelers• Multispecies habitat designers• Riparian stream restoration
architect
Knowledge is portable
11
Enabling mobility of professional graziers
Learning the landscape without 40 years of knowledge
11/4/2017
3
Because Dr. Richard Teague and Dr. Allen Williams can’t be everywhere…right? Helping knowledge scale to new minds
Freeing human time for higher value work “Joe can plan out the moves for all 3 properties so we can all see the plan without driving half an hour to HQ.
I can mark out where valves are, or where the tree is down on the fence, and teammates can find it on their phone.
I don’t have to drive out to watch high schoolers spend 6 hours digging for the pipeline.” -Senior ranch staff
Endless variation on landscapes Enable consistency and differentiation
11/4/2017
4
Why isn’t beef more like wine? Terroir and breed variation not marketed
Finished on volcanic range native grasses on Idaho Snake River Canyon
Belted Galloways bred for coastal fog cliffs eating perennial saltgrass in CA
Colorado: high mountain country vs fruit and wine country vs brittle dryland, different soils and seasons
Finishing on different forages –achieve consistent quality but make flavor variation a strength?
Understand carcass variability
Lifetime animal traceability• Carcass weight,
quality grade tied to grazing records
• Improve consistency of quality but enable product differentiation
8000 graziers in 38 countriesWhat can we learn from each other?
Network insights: Soil like mine, climate like mine
What types of animals might do well?How are similar operations doing it?
Layered data: Soil health, ground cover, biodiversity, grazing management
11/4/2017
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Tell a soil regenerating story with data backupWhat to do with all the free time?
Eliminate and regenerate work
Regenerative work• Weaning off extractive labor (long hours, degrading
to health), leave yourself more energy than you take• Short pulses of stress, not chronic, continuous
stress. Recovery and self care is important! • Build up carrying capacity in skills and expertise• Deepen your roots, ground self in meaning• Fertilize network relationships in a "people food
web“• Build pathways to nurture new life around you, build
a diverse, vibrant, resilient community
11/4/2017
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Dean M. Anderson, USDA-ARS
Could AI help us manage complex ecosystems?
The earth is alive, we’re just starting to hear it Embrace technology. Be human.
Soil Health
Tate SmithRegenerat ive Stewardship, LLC
Regenerat ive Ste w a rd sh ip , LLC
Our mission is to be the premier leader in land resource stewardship. We seek to empower others in responsibly owning and managing landscapes for the purpose of economic gain, ecological enhancement, and heritage preservat ion.
“Soil is life. Dirt is w h a t ’s u n d e r you r fin g e rn a il.”
-Dr. La rry Mu n n
What is Soil Health?
www.growbrutebucks.com
www.motherearthnews.com
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www.hobbyfarms.com
Th ink like an ecologist !
Water
Energy
Mineral
Biotic
How do w e m easure soil health?
Scient ific methods:
Macro nutrients
Micro nut irents
Ph
Cation Exchange Capacity
Non-Scient ific methods:
Biot ic act ivity
Structure and Texture
Ecological Qualitat ive
PRODUCTION!
This image cannot currently be displayed.
40 Acres & A Dre a m
40 Acres & A Dre a m
40 acres and A Dream What is Soil Health
Water
Energy
Mineral
Biotic
Thinking like an ecologistThThThThThhThThThhhhhhhhhTTThTThhiiinininnniiininnniinniininnnnninnnnninnnninnnnnnnnnnininnnnnnninnnkikkikikikikkikkkkkikkkkkkkikkkkkkkkkikikikkikikkkkkkkkkikikikkkikkikkikikkikikikkkkkkkiikkiiikkiiiikiikiiikiiikiiiikikikiikikiik ngnnnnnnnnnn like aaaananananaanannnanaaaanaannaananannnannannnaaa eeeeeeeeeeeeccoccococococoooooooooocooccoololololooololoololooololooololoololololooooolol gigigiggiggggigigigigigigigigiggigigigggggg ststststst
Solar energy blocked by dense trees
Soil has lit t le OM
High % of rock
Soil is fluffy
Severe runoff
Lit t le to no biot ic act ivity
Low diversity
!
Highline and remove trees for reduced canopy
Lay cutt ings on contour across the site
Graze appropriately
3 yrs post 5 yrs post
BeforeBBeBeBeBeBeBeBeBeBeBeeBeeBeBeBBeBBeBBBBefofofofofofoofofofofofofofofooforererererererrrerrrrerrrrr
Treatment 3 yrs post 4 yrs post 5 yrs post
5 yrs post4 yrs post
Dirt is w hat you leave behind….
So il is you r le g a cy.
11/4/2017
1
Using Ecological Site Information as a Drought Adaptation Tool on Rangelands
COLORADO SOCIETY OF RANGE MANAGEMENTPUEBLO, COLORADOOCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 1, 2017
AMBER WYNDHAM, USDA-NRCS LIAISON SOUTHWEST CLIMATE HUB
Otero County, CO 2014
USDA Climate Hubs 2
USDA NRCS and Southwest Climate Hub
Objectives: To develop a drought vulnerability assessment on rangelands at
the MLRA level Goals:
1. evaluate how ecological site state and transition models can convey the effects of drought and improve decision making for selecting management adaptations.
2. show how responses to climate variability differ across MLRAs 3. provide grazing management recommendations and/or
adaptation strategies based on ES sensitivity and climate variability
3Colorado Major Land Resource Areas
4
5EXPOSURE
Increased temperature, change in frequency or intensity of storms, more
frequent and severe droughts
SENSITIVITYHow function of species communities, operations are affected by drought
POTENTIAL IMPACT
Effects on ecosystem services and social
networks
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
Ability of system to change and continue
to function
VULNERABILITYRisks to the
existing system
Modified from Brown et al. 2016 and Joyce et al. 2013
Low/High Emissions and
YearMAP(in)
Mean Annual
Potential ET
(in)
Mean Annual Summer Minimum
Temp(F)
Mean Annual Summer
Maximum Temp
(F)
Mean Annual Winter
Minimum Temp
(F)
Mean AnnualWinter
Maximum Temp
(F)
Mean Annual Freeze Free Days
1981-2010 13 50.8 57.7 89.7 17 48.4 162
RCP4.5 2010-2039 13.4 53.6 60 92.3 19.3 50.4 223.4
RCP8.5 2010-2039 13.3 53.9 60.2 92.6 19.7 50.7 224.4
RCP4.5 2040-2069 13.3 55.6 61.9 94.4 21.2 52.2 233.1
RCP8.5 2040-2069 13.2 57.4 63.5 96.2 22.6 53.6 242
6
*www.northwestknowledge.net
MLRA 69 – Climate Variability
11/4/2017
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MLRA 69 Spring Precipitation 7 Rangelands and Drought 8
3.1 Go-back Community
Purple ThreeawnSand DropsedTublegrass
3.2 Seeded Community1.1 Reference Community
Blue GramaGalletaWestern Wheatgrass
1.2 At Risk Community
Blue GramaIncreased GalletaReduced Cool-season
1. Reference State
2. Short-grass Dominated State 3. Tilled State
Diagram Legend
T 1.2-2 Long-term continuous grazingT 1-3 TilledCP 1.1-1.2 Recurring season herbivory, reduced fire frequency, extended droughtCP 1.2-1.1 Normal fire frequency and/or herbivory with adequate recovery
CP
Trans
Trans
MLRA 69 - Loamy Plains State and Transition Model9
Source: USDA-NRCS
MLRA 69 – Loamy Plains Ecological Site10
At Risk Community
Short-grass Dominated State
Go-back Community
Source: Kimberly Diller, USDA-NRCS
Site Criteria
Primary Variables Landform position Production Vegetation rooting depth Soil depth Salts Land use
Secondary Variables Soil texture Available water
capacity Fragments Aspect
11 12Site VulnerabilityEcological Site
Groups Ecological Sites and Coverage Percent
BreaksLimestone Breaks (5.93%)
Sandstone Breaks (7.37%)
Gravel Breaks (0.94%)
Soft BreaksGypsum Breaks (0.08%)
Shale Breaks (0.69%)
Sandy UplandChoppy Sands (0.48%)
Deep Sand (2.43%)
Sandy Plains (15%)
Saline UplandSalt Flat (3.52%)
Sandy Salt Flat (0.13%)
Alkaline Plains (5.64%)
Loamy UplandLoamy Plains (43.39%)
Clayey Plains (3.93%)
Shaly Plains (3.94%)
LowlandSalt Meadow (1.52%)
Sandy Bottomland (1.4%)
Saline Overflow (3.75%)
DepressionsPlains Swale (0.14%)
Saline Plains Swale (0.01%)
Low Medium High
11/4/2017
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Potential Impacts of Warming and Drought
Vegetation Soils Livestock performance Insect population Invasive species Fire Intensity and Frequency
13 14warming
plant community
plant production
foragequality
soil nutrient
cycle
livestockperformance
fire Intensity
frequency
Vegetation Impact
socio-economic
15warming
plant production
soil nutrient
cycledrought severity
soil water
availability
fire Intensity/
frequency
Soil Impact
socio-economic
Adaptive Capacity
Enterprise Ecological Human/Social Ecological
16
Prowers County, 2013
Ecological Site Total Annual Production (lbs/ac)
Stocking Rate (acre/aum)
Low Average High Low Average High
Limestone Breaks 350 600 900 10.43 6.08 4.06
Sandstone Breaks 600 1000 1600 6.08 3.65 2.28
Deep Sand 900 1500 2000 4.06 2.43 1.83
Salt Flat 400 1000 1400 9.13 3.65 2.61
Alkaline Plains 500 1200 1500 7.30 3.04 2.43
Loamy Plains 500 1100 1600 7.30 3.32 2.28
Salt Meadow 1500 2600 3700 2.43 1.40 0.99
Sandy Bottomland 1000 1600 2200 3.65 2.28 1.66
17Ecological Site Production and Stocking Rate Protective Grazing Heights
Dominant Forage Species
Minimum Starting Height (cm)
Minimum Grazing Height
(cm)Alkali sacaton 15.2 10.2Blue grama 7.6 5.1
Little bluestem 15.2 10.2Orchard grass 12.7 7.6Russian wildrye 12.7 7.6
Sand bluestem, Big bluestem 20.3 15.2
Sideoats grama 15.2 10.2Smooth brome 12.7 7.6
Switchgrass 20.3 15.2Wheatgrasses, Crested, or Siberian 12.7 7.6
18
Cook et al. 2017
11/4/2017
4
Adaptive Capacity
Ecological Become familiar with ES’s and STMs Promote reproduction of desirable plants Promote recovery of cover to reduce erosion Monitor vegetation, water, and soils conditions Identify triggers and implement/monitor management actions Know your site and it’s potential
19 Adaptive Capacity Human/ Social Organization
Expand knowledge on climate variability Evaluate economic risks of current operation Consider other enterprise options Network with other landowners to promote adaptive
management Work with the Climate Hubs, NRCS field offices, extension,
conservation districts
No single adaptation strategy is applicable to all rangeland systems Joyce et al. 2013
20
Summary
A warming atmosphere is projected to modify both MAP and its variability and increase the frequency and severity of severe weather events.
MLRA 69 is projected to have less frequent but more intense precipitation events; warmer temperatures, more frequent and severe droughts
With increased climate variability it is important to develop management adaptation strategies to help reduce the effects of a changing climate at the local level.
21Questions?
Thanks to USDA SW Climate Hub Las Cruces, NM
Dr. Al Rango: USDA SW Climate Hub Director, JER, ARS Research Unit
Dr. Emile Elias: USDA SW Climate Hub Deputy Director, JER, ARS Research Unit
Dr. Caitriana Steele: USDA SW Climate Hub Deputy Director, JER, ARS Research Unit
Julian Reyes, USDA SW Climate Hub Fellow, JER, ARS Research Unit
Dr. Joel Brown: Range Management Specialist, JER, USDA-NRCS
Pueblo NRCS MLRA Soils OfficeLaura Craven, MLRA Soil Survey Leader, Pueblo, CO
Kimberly Diller, MLRA Soil Survey ESS, Pueblo, CO
Ben Berlinger, NRCS Affiliate Ecological Resource Specialist, Rocky Ford, CO
22
Projected Climate Variability
Temperature Precipitation events Winter vs Summer
Precipitation Drought Southwest and Southern
Plains Great Basin Northern US and Southern
Canada
23
CICS-NC, NOAA NCEI, and NEMAC
24
11/4/2017
5
Conservation
NRCS Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) NRCS Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP)
25 26
Prowers County, CO, 2013 Otero County, CO 2014
Rangelands
43 million acres in CO Grazing Food and fiber Clean water Recreation Opportunities Climate Regulation Wildlife Habitat Water and Nutrient Cycle
27 28
Loamy Plains, 2003
Loamy Sand, 2003
2011
Prowers County, CO 2013
Otero County, CO 2014
MLRA 69 Rangeland Drought
29Colorado Climate
30Observed and Projected Near Surface Air Temperature
Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI
11/4/2017
6
Ecological Site Production and Stocking Rate
Ecological Site Total Annual Production (lbs/ac) Stocking Rate (acre/aum)
Low Average High Low Average High
Limestone Breaks 350 600 900 10.43 6.08 4.06
Sandstone Breaks 600 1000 1600 6.08 3.65 2.28
Gravel Breaks 350 750 1200 10.43 4.87 3.04
Gypsum Breaks 150 300 500 24.33 12.17 7.30
Shale Breaks 150 300 700 24.33 12.17 5.21
31