DOCKETED - AHRI...2017/04/24 · DOCKETED Docket Number: 17 -BSTD -01 Project Title: 2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards PreRulemaking TN #: 217286 Document Title: 4-20 -2017

DOCKETED

Docket Number: 17-BSTD-01

Project Title: 2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards PreRulemaking

TN #: 217286

Document Title: 4-20-2017 Staff Workshop - 2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards ZNE Strategy

Description: Zero net energy strategy presentation by Mazi Shirakh.

Filer: Adrian Ownby

Organization: California Energy Commission

Submitter Role: Commission Staff

Submission Date:

4/24/2017 4:21:08 PM

Docketed Date: 4/24/2017

file:///C:/Users/svc_SP_Admin/AppData/Local/Temp/fd06961b-30cf-4866-9605-fa7408245d51

Building Energy Efficiency Standards

2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards ZNE Strategy Building Standards Office: Mazi Shirakh, PE ZNE Lead and Advisor for Building Energy Standards Standards Christopher Meyer Manager, Building Standards Office Bill Pennington Senior Technical and Program Advisor to the Energy Efficiency Division Countdown to 2020

April 20, 2017

2019 ZNE Strategy

Content 1. ZNE Strategy – What is it and how we arrived there; explaining EDR

2. Cost Effectiveness for Prescriptive PV Requirements and NEM rules

3. Strategies for Reach Codes

4. CBECC-Res Software Tools for ZNE

2

ZNE Strategy: the 2015 IPER Vision A decade ago when the ZNE goal was first set it was a simple idea: All newly constructed residential buildings by the year 2020 must be ZNE as defined by the IEPR:

“…the value of the net amount of energy produced by on-site renewable energy resources is equal to the value of the energy consumed annually by the building, at the level of a single “project” …. using the California Energy Commission’s Time Dependent Valuation metric.”

Improving building energy efficiency and deploying PVs were identified as the primary tools to achieve the ZNE goals

3

4

ZNE Goals – Lessons Learned Reality turns out to be more nuanced - Since ZNE policy was first set we have learned about the impact of

• 50% RPS and large scale PV deployment on the grid

• large scale deployment of building-based PVs which lowers the value of additional electricity around midday, coincident with utility solar production

• Net energy metering (NEM) and Time-Of-Use (TOU) on compensation for residential customer-owned generation and cost effectiveness of PVs

Also, we have learned that as the electric grid becomes greener in the future, rooftop PVs will have diminished carbon reduction benefits

5

ZNE Goals – Lessons Learned - Continued • The current NEM rules treat the grid as “virtual storage” (or a bank), where the

overgenerated kWhs can be “stored” and retrieved later in the day, or even as if summer kWhs could be stored until winter

• In reality, the grid as it is now has very little capability to store and effectively use overgenerated kWhs from PVs

• Electrification of homes, which results in a larger PV array, must be coupled with grid harmonization strategies to avoid aggravating the duck curve issues and to realize the expected environmental benefits

• Currently, customer-owned storage at about $450/kWh is still too expensive to be cost effective using the LCC for the 2019 Standards, but this is a fast evolving technology which can become cost effective under a future cycle of the Standards

6

ZNE Goals – Lessons Learned - Continued The most important lesson is that grid harmonization strategies (GHS) must be coupled with customer owned PV systems to bring maximum benefits to the grid, environment, and the home owner

GHSs are strategies that maximize self-utilization of the PV array output and minimizes uneconomic exports to the grid, examples of GHS include but not limited to battery storage, demand response, thermal storage, and EV integration.

the 2019 Standards approach must consider these issues

7

ZNE Goals – 2019 Standards Goals The 2019 Standards should be structured to send the right signal to the market to pave the way for achieving full ZNE in a later cycle of Standards by encouraging:

1. Envelope efficiency, 2. Appropriately sized PVs, and 3. Grid harmonization strategies that maximize self-utilization of the PV output and limit exports to the grid

Further, the standards must be framed in a way to encourage competition, innovation, and flexibility to foster new solutions as the grid and technologies evolve.

A possible structure is proposed later in the presentation.

8

The ZNE Challenge: Grid Harmonization The value of midday PV generated kWhs decrease as we approach the 50% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) by 2030 and increasing customer-owned renewables; this necessitates developing GHS strategies that prevent the so called “Duck Curve” Issues – Curtailment is already happening in California

However, Hawaii and Australia that have already encountered these problems, are adopting grid integration/harmonization strategies to maximize self-utilizations and minimize exports to the grid

Recent News Article April 10, 2017

http://www.utilitydive.com/news/california-solar-spike-leads-to-negative-caiso-real-time-prices-in-march/440114/

http://www.utilitydive.com/news/california-solar-spike-leads-to-negative-caiso-real-time-prices-in-march/440114/http://www.utilitydive.com/news/california-solar-spike-leads-to-negative-caiso-real-time-prices-in-march/440114/http://www.utilitydive.com/news/california-solar-spike-leads-to-negative-caiso-real-time-prices-in-march/440114/

Oversupply and ramping: A new challenge as more renewables are integrated into the grid

Typical Spring Day

Net Load 11,663 MW on May 15, 2016

Actual 3-hour ramp 10,892 MW on

February 1, 2016

Page 9 CAISO Public

Solutions

Target energy efficiency

Increase storage and demand response

Enable economic dispatch of renewables

Decarbonize transportation fuels

Retrofit existing power plants

Align time-of-use rates with system conditions

Diversify resource portfolio

Deepen regional coordination

Oversupply is here already and is increasingly managed using renewable resource’s economic bids

Page 10 CAISO Public

11

PV Cost Effectiveness - Findings

All Standards measures , whether efficiency or renewables, must be cost effective in each CZ, using life cycle costing

Using the 2019 TDVs which captures the impact of 50% RPS by 2030, the LCC finds:

Appropriately sized PVs that displace the site kWh are found to be cost effective in all climate zones, even if the NEM2 rules are changed to compensate hourly exported kWhs at avoided cost, and assuming no Federal ITC

12

Proposed Prescriptive 2019 Standards PV Size

Prescriptively, the PV size will be sized to displace the annual site kWhs of the home

The prescriptive PV size will be calculated as follows:

PVs = Wsf X CFA X Aaj X CZaj Where PVs is the DC size of the PV system Wsf is the PV size per square foot of the CFAfor a dwelling of 1200 sf or less CFA is the conditioned floor area Aaj is the area adjuster CZaj is the climate zone adjuster There will be look up tables for the area and CZ Adjusters For performance compliance, we’ll use the Energy Design Rating (EDR) Tool

13

Builds on Commission’s Energy Design Rating Tool

• Energy Design Rating (EDR) score show how close a home is to the ZNE target

Aligned with RESNET

Reference home is a 2006 IECC compliant home, EDR=100

A score of zero means the house is a ZNE building

• CEC’s CBECC-Res software has the capability to calculate EDR scores for EE and PV

• Builders can use a combination of envelope energy efficiency features, better appliances, PVs, and other strategies to get to the target EDR

Download CBECC-Res here for free: http://www.bwilcox.com/BEES/BEES.html

http://www.bwilcox.com/BEES/BEES.htmlhttp://www.bwilcox.com/BEES/BEES.html

14

Proposed 2019 Standards Approach

Energy Design Rating (EDR) targets for each climate zone: 1. An EDR level for energy efficiency features based on 2019 prescriptive

measures – This EDR target can only be met using energy efficiency measures

2. An EDR Contribution for PV array that is sized to displace the annual site kWhs (no more PV tradeoff)

3. Combine the energy efficiency EDR with the PV EDR for one final target EDR

15

Proposed 2019 Standards Approach 1. Maximize envelope efficiency as allowed by LCC and calculate EE EDR

i. HPA to R19 in severe CZs – Currently R13

ii. HPW to 0.043 ~ 0.046 U-factor in severe CZs – Currently 0.051

iii. Windows U-factor of 0.30 and SHGC of 0.23 – Currently 0.32 and 0.25

iv. QII as a prescriptive requirement

2. Establish an Energy Design Rating (EDR) for energy efficiency in each CZ that can only be met with efficiency measures (no PV tradeoff against EE)

3. Calculate EDR of PV array as follows:

i. Calculate the PV size required to displace the site kWh in each CZ

ii. Calculate the EDR contribution of the PV array

4. Combine the EDR contribution of EE to the EDR contribution of PV and establish a Target EDR in each CZ that the building must meet to comply

Note: Examples are presented in later slides

16

Target EDR’s Many Advantages 1. A target EDR establishes a performance benchmark that the building must meet to comply; the

concept is similar to performance standards consistent with the Warren-Alquist Act expectation to provide builders with compliance flexibility

2. As shown by the 2016 HPA and HPW approach, builders appreciated having many options to comply, leading to a flurry of innovation in attics and walls, which continues to date

3. Target EDR can send the right signals to the market about EE, PV sizing, storage, demand response and flexibility, and other grid harmonization strategies that can achieve ZNE in the future

4. Target EDR allows the builder to use more efficiency and less PV to get to the target; the builder can also use high performance glazing or appliances that are higher than minimum efficiency levels that we are prevented to require because of preemption

5. Target EDR is fully compatible with the reach codes, local jurisdiction simply identify a lower target EDR (or zero) that can be met with a combination of additional EE, PV, demand response/flexibility, EV integration, or storage

6. Target EDR works well with varying building sizes – static PV size does not

17

Target EDR Advantages - Example Here is an example of how CBECC-Res calculates the Target EDR for both EE and PV in CZ12 for the 2,700 sf house:

18

All-Electric Home Option What should be the EE EDR and Target EDR for All-Electric Homes (AEH)? Staff proposes the same EDRs used for mixed fuel homes be used for the AEH:

1. Requiring a much larger PV system on AEH to displace the larger annual kWh will disincentivize the AEH approach

2. The larger PV needed to displace the AEH kWh, without grid harmonization strategies, will aggravate duck curve issues

Large number of AEHs, due to higher winter kWh usage than summer, can cause a winter peak that may be as large or larger than the summer peak with limited solar resources in the winter to help.

CZ

Summer Cooling kWh

Winter Heating kWh

1 0 4,686 2 30 2,367 3 3 932 4 52 2,128 5 - 2,339 6 37 909 7 9 139 8 302 307 9 632 845

10 839 1,020 11 1,577 2,179 12 543 2,208 13 1,757 1,868 14 1,578 2,266 15 5,282 119 16 105 5,596

Total 12,746 29,908

All-Electric Challenge

Base 2100-CZ2-16

Basic 2100 sf, 2016 Compliant Buildings

2100 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 12100 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 12100 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 1

CZ11CZ13CZ15

Site Energy, KWHThermskTDV.sf-yrSite Energy, KWHThermskTDV.sf-yrSite Energy, KWHThermskTDV.sf-yr

Space Heating158184.317.8Space Heating136158.815.5Space Heating22.60.1

Space Cooling1,38936.2Space Cooling1,57439.8Space Cooling5,04690.6

IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.1

Water Heating116.79.3Water Heating115.09.2Water Heating93.37.5

Total Regulated Loads1,659301.064.5Total Regulated Loads1,822273.865.6Total Regulated Loads5,16095.999.3

Inside Lighting1,04511.4Inside Lighting1,04511.4Inside Lighting1,04510.9

Appliances95852.514.2Appliances95852.514.2Appliances95852.513.8

Plug Loads2,20623.3Plug Loads2,20623.3Plug Loads2,20622.3

Exterior1171.1Exterior1171.2Exterior1171.1

Total Non-regulates Loads4,32652.550.1Total Non-regulates Loads4,32652.550.1Total Non-regulates Loads4,32652.548.2

Total Building5,985353.5114.5Total Building6,148326.3115.7Total Building9,486148.4147.5

TDV Kbtu and Delta kWh/year240,471TDV Kbtu and Delta kWh/year242,886TDV Kbtu and Delta kWh/year309,708

PV System Nominal SizeDCACKWhPV System Nominal SizeDCACKWhPV System Nominal SizeDCACKWh

CBECC, DRCBECC, DRCBECC, DR

PV Cal 1806.25.49,739PV Cal 1806.75.810,098PV Cal 1808.47.713,638

2100 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 12100 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 1

CZ12CZ14

Site Energy, KWHThermskTDV.sf-yrSite Energy, KWHThermskTDV.sf-yr

Space Heating167194.118.8Space Heating153178.117.3

Space Cooling31211.8Space Cooling1,35133.5

IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.1

Water Heating121.29.6Water Heating117.79.5

Total Regulated Loads591315.341.4Total Regulated Loads1,616295.861.4

Inside Lighting1,04511.5Inside Lighting1,04510.9

Appliances95852.514.2Appliances95852.513.8

Plug Loads2,20623.4Plug Loads2,20622.3

Exterior1171.2Exterior1171.1

Total Non-regulates Loads4,32652.550.3Total Non-regulates Loads4,32652.548.0

Total Building4,917367.891.7Total Building5,942348.3109.4

TDV Kbtu and Delta kWh/year192,549TDV Kbtu and Delta kWh/year229,719

PV System Nominal SizeDCACKWhPV System Nominal SizeDCACKWh

CBECC, DRCBECC, DR

PV Cal 1805.34.58,061PV Cal 1805.54.39,898


CZ2CZ7CZ16



Space Cooling80.5Space Cooling90.7Space Cooling521.9

IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.1


Total Regulated Loads308331.032.8Total Regulated Loads135134.612.6Total Regulated Loads552591.756.8










PV Cal 1804.63.96,976PV Cal 1803.42.95,460PV Cal 1805.34.59,017


CZ3CZ8



Space Cooling- 0- 0Space Cooling2587.4

IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.1


Total Regulated Loads220254.123.5Total Regulated Loads393142.720.3






Total Building4,546306.673.2Total Building4,719.0195.269.0



CBECC, DRCBECC, DR

PV Cal 1803.83.35,942PV Cal 1803.83.35,943

NG 2100-CZ2-16

2100 sf - HPA:R19, QII, 0.29U and 0.23 SH, and 50% Lighting Reduction

2100 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 12100 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 12100 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 1Storage Factor0.8

CZ11-Red BluffCZ13-FresnoCZ15-Palm Springs




IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.1PV Annula kWh generation per one kW1,500


Zero Carbon:

Total Regulated Loads1,357276.154.5Total Regulated Loads1,486252.155.5Total Regulated Loads4,51294.386.3Eletricity, lb/kWh0.69

NG, lb/therm11.7

Inside Lighting5916.6Inside Lighting5916.6Inside Lighting5916.2






TDV Kbtu/year149,945.1208,068TDV Kbtu/year156,411.3210,273TDV Kbtu/year247,172.2270,984

PV System Nominal SizeDCKWhPV System Nominal SizeDCKWhPV System Nominal SizeDCKWh


PV Cal 1805.58,616PV Cal 1805.88,658PV Cal 1807.312,090

PV 180 with Storage4.46,893PV 180 with Storage4.66,926PV 180 with Storage5.99,672

TDV Electric Only at 1803.86,001TDV Electric Only at 1804.36,492TDV Electric Only at 1806.71,094

kWh Electric Only at 1803.45,276kWh Electric Only at 1803.65,327kWh Electric Only at 1805.08,292

Zero Carbon, PV 1807.2Zero Carbon, PV 1807.0Zero Carbon, PV 1807.2


CZ12-SacramentoCZ14-PalmdaleTDV Ratios


Space Heating146169.516.4Space Heating128149.314.50.00847


IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.1



Inside Lighting5916.6Inside Lighting5916.2

Appliances95852.514.2Appliances95852.513.80.01052





TDV Kbtu/year104,262.1165,081TDV Kbtu/year146,068.1201,894

PV System Nominal SizeDCKWhPV System Nominal SizeDCKWh

CBECC, DRCBECC, DR

PV Cal 1804.56,957PV Cal 1804.88,607

PV 180 with Storage3.65,566PV 180 with Storage3.96,886

TDV Electric Only at 1802.94,426TDV Electric Only at 1803.66,475

kWh Electric Only at 1802.74,200kWh Electric Only at 1802.95,201

Zero Carbon, PV 1806.7Zero Carbon, PV 1807.1


CZ2-Santa RosaCZ7-San DiegoCZ16-Blue Canyon



Space CoolingSpace Cooling30.3Space Cooling140.5

IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.1


















CZ3-San FranCZ8-Fulerton




IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.1









TDV Kbtu/year88,270.9136,941TDV Kbtu/year94,825.5126,357


CBECC, DRCBECC, DR

PV Cal 1803.45,216PV Cal 1803.35,215





Elect 2100-CZ2-16

2100 sf - HPA:R19, QII, 0.29U and 0.23 SH, and 50% Lighting Reduction

2100 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 12100 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 12100 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 1Storage Factor0.8

CZ11CZ13CZ15


Space Heating1,76114.8Space Heating1,45112.2Space Heating330.1


IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.1

Water Heating1,46814.9Water Heating1,45414.8Water Heating1,27812.4

Total Regulated Loads4,414- 062.3Total Regulated Loads4,239- 061.4Total Regulated Loads5,821- 096.2


Appliances2,497- 026.3Appliances2,497- 026.3Appliances2,497- 025.2



Total Non-regulates Loads5,354- 056.6Total Non-regulates Loads5,354- 056.6Total Non-regulates Loads5,354- 055.2

Total Building9,768- 0118.9Total Building9,593- 0117.9Total Building11,175- 0151.5




PV Cal 1806.4- 010,341PV Cal 1806.8- 010,198PV Cal 1808.6- 014,190



CZ12CZ14TDV Ratio


Space Heating1,70814.5Space Heating1,79114.10.0085


IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.1

Water Heating1,75018.0Water Heating1,66816.2

Total Regulated Loads3,764- 040.0Total Regulated Loads4,688- 061.7All of these need to be changed


Appliances2,497- 026.3Appliances2,497- 025.10.0105



Total Non-regulates Loads5,354- 056.6Total Non-regulates Loads5,354- 054.1

Total Building9,118- 096.5Total Building10,042- 0115.8



CBECC, DRCBECC, DR

PV Cal 1805.6- 08,544PV Cal 1805.8- 010,369



CZ2CZ7CZ16


Space Heating1,93916.2Space Heating1150.9Space Heating4,74138.1


IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.1




Appliances2,49726.2Appliances2,497- 026.4Appliances2,497- 025.1








PV Cal 1805.1- 07,742PV Cal 1804.0- 06,216PV Cal 1806.1- 010,438



CZ3CZ8


Space Heating967- 08.1Space Heating2341.8


IAQ1121.2IAQ1121.1

Water Heating1,683- 017.4Water Heating1,46314.6

Total Regulated Loads2,762- 026.6Total Regulated Loads1,983- 021.5


Appliances2,497- 026.2Appliances2,497- 025.5







CBECC, DRCBECC, DR

PV Cal 1804.3- 06,631PV Cal 1804.2- 06,617


Base 2700-CZ2-16

Basic 2700 sf, 2016 Compliant Buildings


CZ11CZ13CZ15




IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1


Total Regulated Loads2,232349.463.5Total Regulated Loads2,422324.164.7Total Regulated Loads6,232115.393.0


Appliances1,02360.412.1Appliances1,02360.412.1Appliances1,02360.411.7





TDV Kbtu295,326TDV Kbtu298,377TDV Kbtu and Delta kWh/year370,089


CBECC, DR10CBECC, DR10.1CBECC, DR12.7

PV Calc 1109.313,060PV Calc 1109.813,508PV Calc 11012.317,600



CZ12CZ14




IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1



Inside Lighting61611.1Inside Lighting1,30010.5

Appliances1,04260.412.1Appliances1,02360.411.7







CBECC, DR8.2CBECC, DR8.9

PV Calc 1107.910,960PV Calc 1108.313,643

PV Cal 1806.49,748PV Cal 1806.912,328


CZ2CZ7CZ16




IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1














CZ3CZ8



Space Cooling40.2Space Cooling4109.4

IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1











CBECC, DRCBECC, DR

PV Cal 1804.36,714PV Cal 1804.87,459

NG2700-CZ2-16

2700 sf - HPA:R19, QII, 0.29U-Factor and 0.23 SHGC, and 50% Lighting Reduction

2700 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 12700 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 12700 sf2016 Standards - Scenario 1Storage to PV TDV Ratio0.8


Site Energy, KWHThermskTDV.sf-yrSite Energy, KWHThermskTDV.sf-yrSite Energy, KWHThermskTDV.sf-yrDOE Imported and Exported Etricity Conversion Factor10,751

Space Heating167194.614.7Space Heating151175.613.3Space Heating88.80.7DOE NG Conversion Factor1.09109,000

Space Cooling1,57830.9Space Cooling1,78334.1Space Cooling5,24472.2Therms to BTU100,000

IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1PV Annual kWh generation per one kW1,500


Zero Carbon:


NG, lb/therm11.7





Total Non-regulates Loads4,470.060.440.5Total Non-regulates Loads4,47060.440.5Total Non-regulates Loads4,47060.439.1

Total Building6,356.0384.295.1Total Building6,545363.497.0Total Building9,863172.5119.5

TDV Kbtu/year189,172256,689TDV Kbtu/year197,361261,873TDV Kbtu/year294,439322,677


CBECC, DR8.7CBECC, DR8.9CBECC, DR11.1


PV Cal 1806.86.810,543PV Cal 1807.210,875PV Cal 1808.68.614,10714107

TDV Electric Only at 1805.05.07,907TDV Electric Only at 1805.37,979TDV Electric Only at 1807.97.912,93512935

kWh Electric Only at 1804.04.06,405kWh Electric Only at 1804.36,528kWh Electric Only at 1806.06.09,8119811

PV 180 with storage5.48,434PV 180 with storage5.88,700PV 180 with storage6.911,286

Elect Only & Storage at 1804.2Elect Only & Storage at 1804.5Elect Only & Storage at 1806.5

DOE Definition6.8DOE Definition6.8DOE Definition7.7


EHPA-R23, EHPW-R23 QII, 0.29U and 0.23 SH, and 50% Lighting Reduction


CZ12-SacramentoCZ14-PalmdaleCZ15TDV Ratios


Space Heating180189.115.9Space Heating160186.414.1Space Heating77.60.60.0067

Space Cooling53617.5Space Cooling1,57429.4Space Cooling5,12770.4

IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1IAQ1411.1


Total Regulated Loads857323.342.8Total Regulated Loads1,875316.852.7Total Regulated Loads5,275110.978.5


Appliances1,02360.412.1Appliances1,02360.411.7Appliances1,02360.411.80.0082






0



PV Calc 1107.410314PV Calc 1107.312,839PV Calc 11010.615,052

PV Cal 1805.88663PV Cal 1806.010,814PV Cal 1808.614,107












IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1











CBECC, DRCBECC, DR3.4CBECC, DR5.8

PV Calc 110PV Calc 110PV Calc 110

PV Cal 1804.87382PV Cal 1803.45,490PV Cal 1805.59,479












IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1









TDV Kbtu/year104,055154,872TDV Kbtu/year118,174154,332

0


CBECC, DRCBECC, DR7.8

PV Calc 110PV Calc 110

PV Cal 1804.16261PV Cal 1804.16,339



PV 180 with storage3.35,009PV 180 with storage3.35,071

Elect Only & Storage at 1802.4Elect Only & Storage at 1802.7

DOE Definition5.1DOE Definition4.8


Elect 2700-CZ2-16

All Elect, 2700 sf - HPA:R19, QII, 0.29U and 0.23 SH, and 50% Lighting Reduction




Space Heating2,17914.4Space Heating1,86812.4Space Heating1190.6DOE NG Conversion Factor1.09109,000



Water Heating1,571- 012.5Water Heating1,55112.3Water Heating1,35910.2

Zero Carbon:

Total Regulated Loads5,468- 063.2Total Regulated Loads5,317- 062.6Total Regulated Loads6,901- 088.2Eletricity, lb/kWh0.69

NG, lb/therm11.7


Appliances2,79222.9Appliances2,79222.9Appliances2,79221.9















CZ12-SacramentoCZ14-PalmdaleCZ15TDV Ratio


Space Heating2,20814.8Space Heating2,26614.0Space Heating1060.60.0067


IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1IAQ1411.1




Appliances2,79222.9Appliances2,79221.9Appliances2,79221.90.0082













Note: Because TDV approach values therms less than source energy, therms domonated CZs will endup with a smaller PV array using TDV than the ones using source energy.


CZ2 - Santa RosaCZ7-San DiegoCZ16-Blue Canyon


Space Heating2,36715.6Space Heating1390.9Space Heating5,59635.20.0066


IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1




Appliances2,79222.8Appliances2,79223.0Appliances2,79221.80.0082

















Space Heating9326.1Space Heating3071.90.0065


IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1

Water Heating1,79814.5Water Heating1,56112.1

Total Regulated Loads2,874- 021.8Total Regulated Loads2,311- 021.4


Appliances2,79222.8Appliances2,79222.20.0082






0



PV Cal 1804.87565PV Cal 1805.07,891






NG2700-Ultra

2700 sf - HPA:R19, HPW: U 0.040, QII, 0.29U-Factor and 0.23 SHGC, and 50% Lighting Reduction; WH: 0.92 EF, Furn: 0.90, AC: SEER 17 EER 15




Space Heating152177.013.3Space Heating136158.812.1Space Heating55.90.5DOE NG Conversion Factor1.09109,000




Zero Carbon:


NG, lb/therm11.7





Total Non-regulates Loads4,470.060.440.5Total Non-regulates Loads4,47060.440.5Total Non-regulates Loads4,47060.439.1

Total Building6,003.0352.086.0Total Building6,127332.186.7Total Building8,757157.9102.9





PV Cal 1806.1PV Cal 1806.4PV Cal 1807.4

TDV Electric Only at 180TDV Electric Only at 180TDV Electric Only at 180

kWh Electric Only at 1803.8kWh Electric Only at 1804.0kWh Electric Only at 1805.3

PV 180 with storage4.9PV 180 with storage5.1PV 180 with storage5.9






CZ12-SacramentoCZ14-PalmdaleCZ15




IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1IAQ1411.1


Total Regulated Loads617301.130.7Total Regulated Loads1,530284.343.9Total Regulated Loads5,275110.978.5








0



PV Calc 1106.48815PV Calc 1106.610,973PV Calc 11010.615,814

PV Cal 1805.0PV Cal 1805.4PV Cal 1808.614,107

TDV Electric Only at 180TDV Electric Only at 180TDV Electric Only at 1807.912,935

kWh Electric Only at 1803.2kWh Electric Only at 1803.4kWh Electric Only at 1806.09,811

PV 180 with storage4.0PV 180 with storage4.3PV 180 with storage6.811,104









IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1












PV Calc 110PV Calc 110PV Calc 110

PV Cal 1804.87382PV Cal 1803.45,490PV Cal 1805.1

TDV Electric Only at 1802.94,461TDV Electric Only at 1802.64,330TDV Electric Only at 180

kWh Electric Only at 1803.14,825kWh Electric Only at 1802.94,721kWh Electric Only at 1803.1

PV 180 with storage3.85,906PV 180 with storage2.74,392PV 180 with storage4.1









IAQ1411.2IAQ1411.1









TDV Kbtu/year79,974154,872TDV Kbtu/year95,067154,332

0



PV Calc 110PV Calc 110

PV Cal 1804.16261PV Cal 1804.16,339







Sumarry PV Size

2100 SF Prototype - Nominal PV Size at 180o (kW)

2019 Improved HPA: R19, QII, & Windows: U 0.29, S 0.23

123456789101112

CZ2016 Standards Compliant, 180 Degrees2019 Package TDV Displacing Elect & NGTDV With Storage Displacing Elect & NGTDV Displacing Only ElectrickWh Displacing Only ElectricDesign Rating Score for Displacing TDV Elect (w/o PV)Design Rating Score for Displacing TDV Elect (w PV)DOE Source Energy Displacing Elect & NGZero Carbon Displacing Elect & NGAll Eletric Homes - TDV

24.64.13.32.42.667.741.46.95.1

33.83.42.72.22.666.036.05.84.3

73.43.02.42.32.677.537.44.74.0

83.83.32.72.52.661.032.74.94.0

116.25.54.43.83.450.929.17.26.4

125.34.53.62.92.751.231.26.75.6

136.75.84.64.33.650.826.57.06.8

145.54.83.93.62.952.330.27.15.8

158.47.35.96.75.050.121.67.28.6

165.34.83.82.22.573.550.29.66.1

2016 TDVs2700 SF Prototype - Nominal PV Size at 180o (kW)

2019 Improved HPA: R19, QII, & Windows: U 0.29, S 0.23

123456789101112

CZ2016 Standards Compliant, 180 Degrees2019 Package TDV Displacing Elect & NG2019 Pacakge TDV With Storage Displacing Elect & NG2019 Ultra Efficiency Package2019 Ultra Efficiency Package With StorageTDV Displacing Only ElectrickWh Displacing Only ElectricDesign Rating Score for Displacing TDV Elect (w/o PV)Design Rating Score for Displacing TDV Elect (w PV)DOE Source Energy Displacing Elect & NGZero Carbon Displacing Elect & NGAll Eletric Homes - TDV

25.34.83.82.93.164.235.86.18.05.8

34.34.13.32.63.162.831.25.16.44.8

73.93.42.72.62.975.631.24.55.44.6

84.84.13.33.13.160.723.94.85.75.0

117.86.85.46.14.95.04.050.321.86.88.68.2

126.45.84.65.04.04.03.452.224.86.17.97.2

138.37.25.86.45.15.34.350.819.86.88.58.4

146.96.04.85.44.34.33.650.922.96.88.57.2

1510.38.66.97.45.97.96.048.311.97.78.510.0

166.55.54.45.14.12.63.170.546.38.011.17.2

27.0

Note: Ultra Efficiency Pacakge includes:

HPA:R19, HPW: U 0.040, QII, 0.29U-Factor and 0.23 SHGC, and 50% Lighting Reduction; WH: 0.92 EF, Furn: 0.90, AC: SEER 17 EER 15

2019 TDVs2700 SF Prototype - Nominal PV Size at 180o (kW)

2019 Improved HPA: R19, HPW: 0.041, QII, & Windows: U 0.29, S 0.23

123456789101112

CZ2016 Package TDV Displacing Elect & NG2019 Package TDV Displacing Elect & NG2019 Pacakge TDV With 10 kWh Storage Displacing Elect & NG2019 Ultra Efficiency Package2019 Ultra Efficiency Package With StorageDesign Rating Score for Displacing TDV Elect (w PV)PV Array Size (kW) for DR Scores in Col 6, Based On Col 2All Eletric Homes - TDVAll Electric Homes with a Target EDR of 27Regulated Loads Plus AppliancesRegulated Loads OnlyReglated LoadsPplus I/O Lighting

25.65.22.530.02.06.93.63.02.12.6

35.55.12.431.22.26.83.82.81.92.5

74.03.91.225.02.04.92.71.80.91.4

84.84.51.823.92.45.62.92.41.52.0

118.27.54.86.74.021.84.69.85.35.34.34.9

127.16.53.86.03.324.83.68.54.64.33.33.9

138.88.05.37.24.519.85.410.35.55.64.65.2

147.16.43.75.83.122.93.98.34.54.53.74.2

1510.49.16.48.05.311.97.810.85.77.06.06.6

167.97.24.56.84.146.32.111.67.74.94.04.6

Sheet1

Mazi PV Output, July 6 2015

HourskWhHourskWhHourskWh20200.3300.017

"10-110.6120210.347

0.6420220.364

0.6820230.381

0.720240.398

"11-120.7320250.415

0.7520260.432

0.7720270.449

0.7820280.466

"12-130.7920290.483

0.7920300.50.17

0.8020310.5

0.8320320.5

13-140.8220330.5

0.8220340.5

0.8220350.5

0.8120360.5

14-150.8120370.5

0.7520380.5

0.7620390.5

0.7920400.5

"15-160.7520410.5

0.7420420.5

0.7120430.5

0.6820440.5

20450.5

20460.5

Total6.486.144.8320470.5

20480.5

2 Hours6.4820490.5

4 Hours12.6220500.5

6 Hours17.45

0.490.16

PV Size, kW DCAll-Electric Challenge

CZ2019 Package TDV Displacing Elect & NGAll Eletric Homes - TDVSummer Cooling kWhWinter Heating kWhCZTarget Design Rating Score for Displacing kWh ElectkW PV Size for Displacing kWh Electric Only kW PV Size for Displacing kWh Electric Only

104,686

24.85.8302,367213.52.9

34.14.83932313.53.1

4522,128

5- 02,339

637909

73.44.6913978.22.7

84.15.030230789.42.9

9632845

108391,020

116.88.21,5772,1791116.43.8

125.87.25432,2081215.53.1

137.28.41,7571,8681317.14.0

1467.21,5782,2661418.23.3

158.610.05,2821191514.75.7

165.57.21055,5961623.32.8

Total12,74629,908

2,700 sf Prototype2,700 sf Prototype2,100 sf Prototype

PV Size: 3.1 kW DCPV Size: 5.3 kW DCPV Size: 2.6 kW DC

CZ: 12CZ: 12CZ: 12

Storage SizeTarget EDRDeltaStorage SizeTarget EDRDeltaStorage SizeTarget EDRDelta

022.2007.40023.40

221.60.625.91.5221.22.2

419.12.543.12.8418.13.1

616.72.462.01.1617.11.0

815.71.081.20.8816.60.5

1015.00.7100.70.51016.40.2

1215.00.0120.40.31215.90.5

1414.90.1140.20.21415.70.2

1614.90.0160.20.01615.60.1

Total7.3Total7.2Total7.8

2,700 sf Prototype2,700 sf Prototype2,100 sf Prototype

PV Size: 5.7 kW DCPV Size: 8.0 kW DCPV Size: 8.0 kW DC

CZ: 12CZ: 12CZ: 12

Storage SizeTarget EDRDeltaStorage SizeTarget EDRDeltaStorage SizeTarget EDRDelta

04.700-10.700-21.90

22.91.82-13.32.62-25.13.2

40.32.64-14.81.54-26.11.0

6-0.60.96-15.60.86-26.60.5

8-1.40.88-16.20.68-27.00.4

10-1.90.510-16.50.310-27.20.2

12-2.10.212-16.70.212-27.20.0

14-2.30.214-16.70.014-27.20.0

16-2.30.016-16.70.016-27.20.0

Total7.0Total6.0Total5.3

Delta EDR per 1 kW of PV6.7Delta EDR per 1 kW of PV6.7Delta EDR per 1 kW of PV8.4

EDR Credit By Measures

2700 sf Prototype, CZ12

Building ScenarioEE EDR ScoreDifferenceTotal HPA+HPW

Base 2019 Standards43.2

No HPA46.5-3.3

No HPW45.5-2.3-5.6

HPG 0.2040.92.3Note: Furnace and SEER credits have interactive effects with envelope measures

HPG 0.1539.93.3

0.95 Furn41.81.4

SEER 16, EER 1441.91.3

Tankless 0.9542.70.5

HPG 0.20, 0.95 Furn. 0.95 WH, SEER 16385.2

HPG 0.15, 0.95 Furn. 0.95 WH, SEER 1637.26.0

EmbeddedFile1.xls

19

All-Electric - Summer Duck vs Christmas Turkey All-Electric homes use more kWhs in the winter than summer that may result in

higher peak and demand in winter – Grid harmonization becomes more important – Like a broken clock, a dumb PV systems is correct twice a YEAR

Chart1

13743.453912.34753.351927.8

10732.056690.63962.73294.9

8646.759216.94022.554536

7793.110577.73764.255203.8

6835.511484.93783.155651.1

6196.0511973.153934.355893.65

7169.411992.055087.255903.1

6753.611604.64778.555710.95

7011.910196.554863.65017.95

6659.18908.24139.14381.65

9777.65663.74299.752784.6

14360.854180.054819.52056.95

Elect Use - All Elct

PV Gen - All Elct

Elect Use - Mixed

PV Gen - Mixed

Months

kBTU/Year

2,700 sf Mixed Fuel vs All-Elect, CZ12, Source Energy, 3.1 & 6.3 kW PV Sized to Displace Annual kWh

Sheet1

2,700 sf, CZ12, 3.1 kW PV - Mixed Fuel, kBTU Site Energy2,700 sf, CZ12, 3.1 kW PV - All Elect, kBTU Site Energy

3.1 Kw PV sized to offset annual kWh6.3 Kw PV sized to offset annual kWh

Total Elect-MFTotal Solar-MFTotal Elect-Solar-MFTotal GasTotal Elect-AETotal Solar-AETotal Elect-Solar-AETotal Gas

Jan1,5096128977,543Jan4,3631,2423121

Feb1,2581,0462124,893Feb3,4072,1241283

Mar1,2771,440(163)3,330Mar2,7452,926-181

Apr1,1951,652(457)2,654Apr2,4743,358-884

May1,2011,794(593)1,702May2,1703,646-1476

Jun1,2491,871(622)1,331Jun1,9673,801-1834

Jul1,6151,874(259)1,192Jul2,2763,807-1531

Aug1,5171,813(296)1,160Aug2,1443,684-1540

Sep1,5441,593(49)1,256Sep2,2263,237-1011

Oct1,3141,391(77)1,321Oct2,1142,828-714

Nov1,3658844814,080Nov3,1041,7981306

Dec1,5306538777,359Dec4,5591,3273232

Total16,57416,623(49)37,821Total33,54933,778(229)- 0

2,700 sf, CZ12, 3.1 kW PV - Mixed Fuel, kBTU Source Energy2,700 sf, CZ12, 3.1 kW PV - All Elect, kBTU Source Energy

3.1 Kw PV sized to offset annual kWh6.3 Kw PV sized to offset annual kWh

Total Elect-MFTotal Solar-MFTotal Elect-Solar-MFTotal Gas-MFTotal Elect-AETotal Solar-AETotal Elect-Solar-AETotal Gas

Jan4,7531,9282,8268,222Jan13,7433,9129,831

Feb3,9633,2956685,333Feb10,7326,6914,041

Mar4,0234,536(513)3,630Mar8,6479,217(570)

Apr3,7645,204(1,440)2,893Apr7,79310,578(2,785)

May3,7835,651(1,868)1,855May6,83611,485(4,649)

Jun3,9345,894(1,959)1,451Jun6,19611,973(5,777)

Jul5,0875,903(816)1,299Jul7,16911,992(4,823)

Aug4,7795,711(932)1,264Aug6,75411,605(4,851)

Sep4,8645,018(154)1,369Sep7,01210,197(3,185)

Oct4,1394,382(243)1,440Oct6,6598,908(2,249)

Nov4,3002,7851,5154,447Nov9,7785,6644,114

Dec4,8202,0572,7638,021Dec14,3614,18010,181

Total52,20852,362(154)41,225Total105,679106,401(721)

Delta Between AE and MF UsageDelta Between AE and MF PV Gen

Conversion Factors:8,9901,984

Elect3.156,7693,396

NG1.094,6244,681

4,0295,374

3,0525,834

2,2626,080

2,0826,089

1,9755,894

2,1485,179

2,5204,527

5,4782,879

9,5412,123

53,47154,038

Sheet1

Total Electric

Total Solar

Electric-Solar

Total Gas

Months

kBTU/Year

2,700 sf Mixed Fuel, CZ12, Source Energy, 3.1 kW PV Sized to Displace Annual kWh

Sheet2

Total Electric

Total Solar

Electric-Solar

Months

kBTU/Year

2,700 sf All-Elect, CZ12, Source Energy, 6.3 kW PV Sized to Displace Annual kWh

Sheet3

Elect Use - All Elct

PV Gen - All Elct

Elect Use - Mixed

PV Gen - Mixed

Months

kBTU/Year

2,700 sf Mixed Fuel vs All-Elect, CZ12, Source Energy, 3.1 & 6.3 kW PV Sized to Displace Annual kWh

Delta AE vs MF Elect Usage

Delats AE vs MF PV Gen

NG

Months

kBTU/Year

2,700 sf, Net Gen and Usage Between Mixed Fuel & All-Elect, CZ12, Source Energy, 3.1 & 6.3 kW PV Sized to Displace Annual kWh

EmbeddedFile2.xls

20

Target EDR Examples by Climate Zone Here is are examples of how Target EDRs might look for different scenarios in different CZs for the 2,700 sf Mixed Fuel Homes: Note: At this time these numbers are examples only and may change as our tools evolve

NEM = Net Energy Metering; GH = Grid Harmonization

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

CZ

Efficiency EDR without PV, based on

2019 Efficiency Measures

Target Design Rating Score

for Displacing kWh Elect

with PV from Col 4

kW PV Size for Displacing kWh Electric Only –

Cool with NEM, not so Cool with

GH

Standalone PV Sized to Zero EDR (Dumb

PV) – Violates NEM, Not Cool

with GH

PV Size for Zero EDR with Basic

Battery Controls – May Violate NEM,

OK with GH

PV Size for Zero EDR with

Optimum Battery Controls – Cool with NEM and

GH

Similar to Col 7 But With 95 Furn, 0.95 WH

– Real Cool with NEM and

GH

Col 6 to 4

Ratio

Col 7 to 4

Ratio

Col 8 to 4

Ratio

1 48.0 26.5 3.4 7.7 6.9 4.6 4.1 2.0 1.4 1.2

2 41.2 18.0 2.9 6.1 5.5 3.1 2.8 1.9 1.1 1.0

3 46.9 22.7 2.8 5.8 5.3 3.2 2.9 1.9 1.1 1.0

6 48.0 20.9 2.9 5.3 4.5 2.9 2.8 1.6 1.0 1.0

7 48.0 14.9 2.7 4.6 3.9 2.4 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.9

8 43.0 14.6 2.9 5.3 4.3 2.7 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.9

11 43.3 23.4 3.8 8.5 6.5 4.4 4.2 1.7 1.2 1.1

12 43.1 24.5 3.1 7.0 5.8 3.8 3.5 1.9 1.2 1.1

13 44.8 22.1 4.0 9.0 6.2 4.9 4.6 1.6 1.2 1.2

14 44.6 21.3 3.4 7.4 5.4 4.4 4.1 1.6 1.3 1.2

15 48.0 17.9 5.7 10.5 8.1 6.9 6.8 1.4 1.2 1.2

16 46.3 27.5 3.0 7.6 6.5 4.8 4.3 2.2 1.6 1.4

21

Target EDR Examples by Climate Zone Here is are examples of how Target EDRs might look for different scenarios in different CZs for the 2,700 sf All-Electric Homes: Note: At this time these numbers are examples only and may change as our tools evolve

NEM = Net Energy Metering; GH = Grid Harmonization

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

CZ

Target Design Rating Score

for Displacing kWh Elect

with PV Size from Col 3

kW PV Size for Displacing kWh Electric Only in

Mixed Fuel Homes–Cool

with NEM

Standalone PV Size Needed to Displace Annual kWh – Cool with NEM, not Cool

with GH

Standalone PV Sized for Zero

EDR (Dumb PV) – Violates

NEM, Not Cool with GH

PV Sized for Zero EDR with Basic Battery

Controls – May Violate NEM,

OK for GH

PV Sized for Zero EDR with

Optimum Battery Controls

– Cool with NEM and GH

Similar to Col 7 But With 14 EER HP, 3.5

COP HPWH – Real Cool with NEM and GH

Col 6 to 4

Ratio

Col 7 to 4 Ratio

Col 8 to 4 Ratio

1 33.9 3.4 7.7 9.4 8.4 5.6 5.3 1.1 0.8 0.7

2 29.6 2.9 5.9 7.2 6.5 3.9 3.7 1.1 0.7 0.6

3 32.1 2.8 5.4 7.0 6.0 3.8 3.6 1.1 0.7 0.7

6 26.6 2.9 4.6 5.9 4.9 3.2 3.0 1.1 0.7 0.7

7 26.0 2.7 4.1 5.3 4.4 2.7 2.6 1.1 0.7 0.6

8 26.0 2.9 4.6 6.1 4.8 3.1 2.9 1.0 0.7 0.6

11 31.4 3.8 6.6 9.9 7.6 5.9 5.3 1.2 0.9 0.8

12 30.0 3.1 5.9 8.4 6.7 4.8 4.4 1.1 0.8 0.7

13 30.8 4.0 6.7 10.3 8.0 6.5 5.8 1.2 1.0 0.9

14 33.3 3.4 5.9 8.6 6.7 5.8 5.3 1.1 1.0 0.9

15 26.2 5.7 7.0 11.5 9.2 8.0 7.0 1.3 1.1 1.0

16 48.3 3.0 7.7 10.2 8.9 7.0 6.9 1.3 1.0 1.0

22

2 – Life Cycle Costing

Life Cycle Costing for Prescriptive PV Requirement

E3 Life Cycle Costing Analysis Finds:

1. PV systems sized to displace site annual kWh cost effective in all climate zones

2. Even if NEM2 rules are changed to compensate exported kWhs at avoided cost

3. With no federal ITC

The followings are a partial representation of E3 analysis and findings (E3’s greatest hits) – The full report will be available online

Solar production occurs during low TDV hours, and households demand energy during high TDV hours

• PV must be sized larger to reach TDV ZNE vs. Site ZNE (which doesn’t account for the changing value of kWh)

For a 2,100 ft2 home with 180° PV orientation, TDV ZNE requires 7% - 44% larger PV capacity than Site ZNE (average: 21%)

Because PV interconnection rules limit sizing to electric kWh, this presentation focuses on that size

TDV ZNE requires a larger PV system than Site ZNE

23

-

2

4

6

8

10

CZ1

CZ2

CZ3

CZ4

CZ5

CZ6

CZ7

CZ8

CZ9

CZ10

CZ11

CZ12

CZ13

CZ14

CZ15

CZ16

PV S

yste

m C

apac

ity (k

W)

Mixed Fuel Home PV System Capacity (kW)2100 sf mixed fuel home, 180° orientation

Sizing PV to Offset Electric kWhSizing PV to Offset Electric TDVSizing PV to Offset Electric + Gas TDV (Current Definition of ZNE)

-

2

4

6

8

10

CZ1

CZ2

CZ3

CZ4

CZ5

CZ6

CZ7

CZ8

CZ9

CZ10

CZ11

CZ12

CZ13

CZ14

CZ15

CZ16

PV s

yste

m c

apac

ity

(kW

)

All-Electric Home PV system capacity (kW)(2,100 sq ft all-electric home, 180°PV orientation)

Sizing PV to Offset Electric kWh Sizing PV to Offset Electric TDV

PV Costs

No ITC Assumed - The ITC is scheduled to step down throughout the 2020-2022 building standard cycle (26%, 22%, 20%) and then to 0% for residential systems beginning in 2023

All costs assume a 30-yr panel life and inverter replacements after 10 and 20 years (comprises ~$0.40/W in the costs)

$2.61 $2.99

$3.55

$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00

Low Cost Med Cost High Cost

$/W

($2

019)

PV Costs

Price based on NREL 2016 Installer Price

• Low cost case: • 30% cost reduction 2016 – 2020 (GreenTech Media)

• Medium cost case: • 18% cost reduction 2016 – 2020 (Bloomberg)

• High cost case: • No cost reduction 2016 - 2020

Three solar compensation policies

25

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

NEM 2.0 AC for Exports AC for All

30-y

r NPV

PV

Prod

uctio

n Va

lue

($20

19)

Average per-kWh compensated value (TDV) of rooftop PV(Mixed fuel home, solar PV sized to electric kWh, 2,100 sq ft home, 180°PV orientation)

Behind-the-meter Generation Non-Surplus Export Generation

AC = Avoided Costs

Non-surplus Export Generation are the hourly exports

Offsetting electric kWh with solar PV is cost-effective except under the most aggressive NEM reform scenarios

Cost-Effectiveness of Offsetting Elec kWh in a Mixed Fuel Home

26

CZ PV kW1 2.89 2 2.46 3 2.38 4 2.36 5 2.22 6 2.38 7 2.26 8 2.46 9 2.51

10 2.58 11 3.10 12 2.58 13 3.28 14 2.73 15 4.83 16 2.37

$(10,000)

$(5,000)

$-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Net

Ben

efit

($20

19 N

PV)

Climate Zone

Net Benefit of Offsetting Electric kWh in a Mixed Fuel Home2700 sf - PV 180°

Low Cost PV NEM 2.0

Med Cost PV NEM 2.0

High Cost PV NEM 2.0

Low Cost PV Avoided Cost forExportsMed Cost PV Avoided Cost forExportsHigh Cost PV Avoided Cost forExportsLow Cost PV Avoided Cost for All

3 - Strategies for Reach Codes

NEM Rules and Oversizing PV –

DRAFT

March 2, 2017

Snuller Price, Zachary Ming, Brian Conlon

PV Sizing Methods

Electric kWh

• PV scaled such that annual generation = annual electric load

Maximize Net Benefits

• PV scaled to maximize net TDV benefit to customer • Practically, this is the same capacity as sizing to kWh, i.e., further generation will only

receive Net Surplus Compensation (NSC)

Electric TDV

• PV scaled such that annual TDVs generated = annual TDV of electric load

Zero Net Benefits (Breakeven Point)

• PV scaled to point at which a larger system will not be cost-effective

• Cost of PV system = Revenue from PV generation 28

Sizes no longer follow predictable order

02468

101214161820

CZ01 CZ02 CZ03 CZ04 CZ05 CZ06 CZ07 CZ08 CZ09 CZ10 CZ11 CZ12 CZ13 CZ14 CZ15 CZ16

Syst

em Si

ze (k

W)

2700 sqft, PV180, NEM 2.0, Mid Cost PV

PV Sized to Electric kWh PV Sized to Maximize Net Benefits

PV Sized to Electric TDV PV Sized to Zero Net Benefits

CZ1 1.98 CZ2 2.51 CZ3 2.49 CZ4 2.62 CZ5 2.76 CZ6 2.42 CZ7 2.61 CZ8 2.49 CZ9 2.55

CZ10 2.43 CZ11 2.65 CZ12 2.59 CZ13 2.43 CZ14 2.96 CZ15 2.55 CZ16 2.61

PV sized to max net benefits is smaller than sized to electric TDV

• Sizing to TDV does not reflect lower compensation for exports from NEM 2.0

At sizes beyond max net benefits, incremental kW only receive NSC

• Large net benefit and small marginal net cost (PV cost – NSC) at the point of maximum net benefits require much larger systems to zero out net benefits

• NEM2 for self-use and exports, NSC for net surplus

Sizing Comparison NEM 2.0, Mid Cost PV

29

Ratio of PV Sized to Zero Net Benefits

PV Sized to Electric kWh

02468

101214161820


Syst

em Si

ze (k

W)

2700 sqft, PV180, Avoided Cost for Exported Energy, Mid Cost PV



CZ01 1.21 CZ02 1.57 CZ03 1.52 CZ04 1.64 CZ05 1.71 CZ06 1.58 CZ07 1.67 CZ08 1.67 CZ09 1.69 CZ10 1.57 CZ11 1.65 CZ12 1.64 CZ13 1.45 CZ14 1.91 CZ15 1.55 CZ16 1.60

Valuing export PV generation at avoided cost reduces cost-effectiveness of PV sized to offset kWh

• Smaller net benefits for systems sized to offset kWh means less kW at marginal net cost are needed to zero out net benefits

• Retail for self-use, AC for exports, NSC for net surplus

Sizing Comparison AC for Exports, Mid Cost PV

30



- 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18 20


Syst

em Si

ze (k

W)

2700 sqft, PV180, BTM TDV, Mid Cost PV



Sizing Comparison BTM TDV, Mid Cost PV

31



BTM TDV means

• All PV production consumed behind-the-meter (BTM) receives full TDV value

• All PV production exported to the grid as well as all net surplus above a system sized to annual kWh receives net surplus compensation (NSC)

PV sized to electric kWh and electric TDV are unchanged from previous rate structures

PV sized to maximize net benefits and PV sized to zero net benefits are substantially reduced

Retail for self-use, NSC for exports and annual surplus


CZ10 1.05 CZ11 1.11 CZ12 1.14 CZ13 0.89 CZ14 1.30 CZ15 0.98 CZ16 1.07

Storage Overview

E3 analyzed the additional value of a battery storage system to an existing PV system of a 2700 sf, mixed fuel home

BTM TDV rate scenario

• BTM generation receives full TDV value (~$0.20/kWh); exported generation receives net surplus compensation value (~$0.03/kWh)

Battery assumptions

• 14 kWh

• 5 kW

• 90% round trip efficiency

• $500/kWh fully installed

32

02468

101214161820


Syst

em Si

ze (k

W)

2700 sqft, PV180, BTM TDV, Mid Cost PV



Sizing Comparison BTM TDV With Storage, Mid Cost PV



33

Installing storage (without accounting for the storage costs) increases the benefits to the homeowner, allowing them to install more solar

The Santa option: Demonstrates how PV value increases if coupled with storage at no cost

Retail for self-use, NSC for exports and annual surplus


CZ10 3.75 CZ11 3.76 CZ12 3.71 CZ13 3.66 CZ14 4.26 CZ15 3.47 CZ16 3.02

storage costs not included

Sizing Comparison Avoided Cost for Exported Energy With Storage, Mid Cost PV

CZ1 1.48 CZ2 2.21 CZ3 1.96 CZ4 2.71 CZ5 2.23 CZ6 1.73 CZ7 1.87 CZ8 2.29 CZ9 2.39 CZ10 2.47 CZ11 2.82 CZ12 2.63 CZ13 2.49 CZ14 2.73 CZ15 2.33 CZ16 1.90 34

Changing the rate structure to avoided cost for exported energy increases the next benefits of solar + storage and therefore increases the amount of solar that can be installed before net benefits are reduced to zero; annual surplus at NSC

Includes storage costs

NEW


(with Storage Costs) PV Sized to Electric kWh

02468

101214161820


Syst

em Si

ze (k

W)

2700 sqft, PV180, Avoided Cost for Exported Energy, Mid Cost PV



PV Sized to Zero Net Benefits (with Storage Cost) PV Sized to Electric + Gas TDV

35

4. Software Tools The CBECC-Res Compliance Software May Be Used For:

• Part 6 Compliance, and

• Part 11 (Calgreen, Reach Codes, etc)

The Software can be used to:

• Size PV for Part 6 compliance or lower target EDRs for Reach Codes

• Assess the impact of battery storage on lowering EDR

• Assess the impact of precooling and other DR strategies on lowering EDR

• Assess the impact HPWH DR on lowering EDR

36

4. Software Tools – Input Screens

This screen can be used to specify EDR targets required by reach codes

37


38


39

4. Software Tools – Results Screens

For Compliance with Part 6

40


For Compliance with Part 11

41

Questions?

42

BEES Impact on EUI

Impacts of Building Standards on Home Energy Use

43

2019 BEES Schedule 2019 STANDARDS UPDATE SCHEDULE

DATE MILESTONES

February 2016-July 2016 Measures Identified and approval August 2016 to June 2017 Stakeholder meeting/workshop & final staff workshop April, 2017 CASE Reports submitted to the CEC December 1, 2017 45-day Language Hearings March 1, 2018 Adoption of 2019 Standards at Business Meeting June1, 2018 to November 2018

Staff work on Software, Compliance Manuals, Electronic Documents Available to Industry

November 1, 2018 Approval of the Manuals January 1, 2019 Software, Compliance Manuals, Electronic Documents

Available to Industry January 1, 2020 Effective Date

Informational Resources

• Energy Efficiency Standards approved computer compliance programs, CBECC-Res and CBECC-Com can be downloaded for free at: http://www.energy.ca.gov/title24/2016standards/2016_computer_prog_list.html

• Information on the current 2016 Building Energy Efficiency Standards, including Compliance Manuals, worksheets and additional resources can be found at: http://www.energy.ca.gov/title24/2016standards/index.html

• To receive documents and notification of upcoming events, please sign up on the List Serve for the 2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards (Docket #2016-BSTD-06) at: http://www.energy.ca.gov/title24/2019standards/prerulemaking/index.html

• Title 24 Support Hotline: [email protected]

http://www.energy.ca.gov/title24/2016standards/2016_computer_prog_list.htmlhttp://www.energy.ca.gov/title24/2016standards/index.htmlhttp://www.energy.ca.gov/title24/2019standards/prerulemaking/index.html

Document.pdfDocument.pdfSlide Number 12019 ZNE Strategy ZNE Strategy: the 2015 IPER VisionSlide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Oversupply and ramping:A new challenge as more renewables are integrated into the gridSlide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22TDV ZNE requires a larger PV system than Site ZNEPV CostsThree solar compensation policiesCost-Effectiveness of Offsetting �Elec kWh in a Mixed Fuel Home�3 - Strategies for Reach Codes��NEM Rules and Oversizing PV – DRAFT�PV Sizing MethodsSizing Comparison �NEM 2.0, Mid Cost PVSizing Comparison�AC for Exports, Mid Cost PVSizing Comparison�BTM TDV, Mid Cost PVStorage OverviewSizing Comparison�BTM TDV With Storage, Mid Cost PVSizing Comparison�Avoided Cost for Exported Energy �With Storage, Mid Cost PVSlide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40Slide Number 41Slide Number 42Slide Number 43Informational Resources