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Steele, Sara M.Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Adult Educator: Aiterature Review.Adult Education Association of U.S.A., Washington,D.C.; Syracuse Univ., N.Y. ERIC Clearinghouse onAdult Education.Jul 7134p

MF-$0 65 HC-$ .29Adult Education Prog=ams; *Adult Educators;Bibliographies; *Cost Effectiveness; Decision Making;Educational Administration: Evaluation Techniques;*Input Output-Analysis; *Literature Reviews; *SystemsApproach

ABSTRACTin order to determine the value of cost-benefit

analysis to adult educators, this paper discusses the concepts

involved and how they are being operationalized in adult education.

The specific technique is discussed within the general framework ofsystems approach. A survey of current usage reveals that it has thus

far been limited primarily to programs which lend themselves toachieving economic outputs and programs which are closely associatedwith industry. The final section of the paper concludes that while

cost-benefit analysis can be of usefulness in adult education, a moregeneral input-output analysis would be more useful because of its

flexibility in dealing with human variables within an educationalsystem. A 68-item bibliography is included. (Autho )

t=iLLD

J.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH,EDUCATION & WELFAREOF!CE.0F EOUCATION

THIS DOCuMENT HAS BEEN REPRO-DUCED ExACTLY AS RECEIVED FROMTHE PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORIG-INATING IT POINTS OE VIEW OR OPIN-IONS STATED DO NOT NECESSARILYREPRESENT OFFICIAL OFFICE OF EDU-CATION POSITION OR POLICY

Cost-BenefitAnalysis ind the

Adult EducatorA LITERATURE REVIEW

Sara M. Steele

E learinghopse Aciul Eclucatiop.ahd Adu#:;duoat.ipn.Associatiop- of the. USA.-RIC

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS AND THE ADULT EDUCATOR

A Literature Review

Sara M. Steele

ERIC Clearinghouse on Adult Education

and

Adult Education Association of the U.S.A.

ERIC CLEARINGHOUSE ON ADULT EDUCATION

107 RONEY LANE I SYRACUSF. NEW YORK 13210

SPONSORED BY SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY AND THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER OF

THE U. S. OFFICE OF EDUCATION

Stan I ey M. Grabowski, Di rector

This publication was prepared pursuant to a contract with the Office of Education, US. Department of Health,Education and Welfare. Contractors undertaking such projects under Government sponsorship are encouraged to

express freely their judgment in professional and technical matters. Points of view or opinions do not, therefore,

necessarily represent official Office of Education position or policy.

ABSTRACT

In order to determine the value of cost-benefit analysis to adult educa-tors, this paper discusses the concepts involved and how they are beinoperationalized in adult education. The specific technique is discussedwithin the general framework of systems approach. A survey of currentusage reveals that it has thus far been limited primarily to programswhich lend themselves to achieving economic outputs and programswhich are closely associated with industry. The final section of thepaper concludes that while cost-benefit analysis can be of usefulness inadult education, a more general input-output analysis would be moreuseful because of its flexibility in deaiing with human variables withinan educational system. A 68-item bibliography is included.

July 1971

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

FOREWORDvii

I. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS AND THE ADULT EDUCATOR 1

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS CONCEPTSProgram Efficiency . U f S

0

Current Approaches for Examining Efficiency 1

System As An Important Underlying Concept. 2

What is Cost-Benefit Analysis? .3

Uses of Cost-Benefit Analysis 3

Definitions of Costs and Benefits 4

Problems In Cost-Benefit Analysis . . 4

Techniques Associated With Cost-Benefi nalysisVariations of Cost-Benefit Analysis

IlL COST-BE1 TFFIT ANALYSIS OF ADULT EDUCATION . 6

IV INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS AND ADULT EDUCATION 6

Are We Dealing With A System? . 6

When Is Input-Output Analysis Important to theAdult Educator? . . . . . . 7

At What Depth, Stage and Level Should Analysis Be ne? 8

What Are the Key Decisions?

V. REFERENCES IN THE TEXT . 12

VI. BIBLIOGRAPHIES . .13

General References . . .13

Adult Education Broad Range Programs 15

Audio Visual . . . .16

Farm Management Education 18

OJT and MDA .20

TrainingGeneral24

VII. NOTE ON AVAILABILITY28

FOREWORD

In the light of the demand for greater accountability, cost-benefitanalysis is one of the mcst vital concerns of educators, as well asothers such as those in management in business and industry. Thereis much talk about cost-benefit analysis, but not many practicionershave the time to sift through the mounting literature on the subject toextract what is useful in their situations.

Dr. Sara Steele, on the faculty of the University of Wisconsin, hasprepared a review of the literature about cost-benefit analysis whichneither overwhelms the novice nor oversimplifies the procedure for theexperienced.

The intent of this publication is philosophical rather than a proce-dural presentation; it is not so much trying to tell the reader how to doa cost-benefit analysis, but rather to help him understand whet he maybe doing if he elects to carry out such an evaluative procedure. It pre-sents a brief overview of the nature of cost-benefit analysis and intro-duces the reader to some references which will take him further in hisunderstanding.

The author Dr. Steele is an adult educator rather than a cost-benefit specialist. Her philosophical discussion in the mid-seetion ofthe paper is drawn from 17 years with Extension and intensive study ofconceptual aspects of evaluation during the past four years as part ofteaching a graduate level course in program evaluation at the Universityof Wisconsin. She views cost-benefit analysis as an activity which isboth intriguing and threatening, but about which adult educators need toknow considerably more if they are to make a good judgment of whetheror not it is a tool that will help them in their programming.

On behalf of the many adult educators who will use this literatureguide, we thark Sara Steele for the talent and many hours she; has de-voted to its preparation. We hope that this review, and others of asimilar nature, will bring the literature of adult education a step closerto help improve research and practice in the field.

We are also grateful to the Adult Education Association of the U.S.A.for making this review more easily available,

Stanley M. Grabowski

Acting Director,ERIC Clearinghouse on Adult Education

vii

I. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS AND THE ADULT EDUCATOR

As an aclalt educator, are you interested inthe efficiency of your program? There appearsto be a widespread trend in other fields of educa-tion and related social welfare fields to considernot only the effectiveness of programs but alsothe efficiency of Lhose programs. Some would saythat an fficiency epidemic is in process. Thegerm, which was incubated in industry, sweptthrough the government branches most influencedby businessmen, infiltrated HEW and, through fed-eral funding of local education activities, has nowbecome a common phenomenon in laany fields ofpublic school education.

There is relatively little evidence of how farthe efficiency epidemic may be spreading intoadult education. It has been extensively used insome areas like manpower training programs, butthere is little evidence that it is having impactupon other areas such as liberal adult education.The Handbook of Adult Education,1 pnblished in1970, has a one-sentence reference to cost effec-tiveness buried in a chapter on training in busi-ness and industry. Most adult education litera-

Ii

Program Efficiency

ture on program evaluation still stays with the1952 definition that evaluation is dc ermining theextent to which objectives have been attained.2That definition does not include examining thecost of attaining those objectives.

Some adult educators are probably rabid fansof cost-benefit analysis and other forms of effi-ciency examination. Many are rabidly opposed.Most are in the middle = trying to figure out whatis involved and how much value cost-benefitanalysis rn have for them.

In order to determine value, one first .needsto get a feel of the concepts that are involvedand how they are being operationalized in adulteducation. The first section a this paper willpresent a brief overview of concepts of cost-benefit analysis; the second will review its cur-rent usage; the third will present a somewhatphilosophical discussion of the potential of cost-benefit analysis for adult edeeators. We will gobeyond "$" values and explore a very broad ap-proach to .the idea of input-oltpth analysis.

COST-BENEF1T ANALYSIS CONCEPTS

Propprtion deals with the relationship of in-put to output within a given program without re-gard to alternatives. For example, it raises suchquestions as: Were the accomplishments suffi-cient for the amount of resources expended? Wereresources fully utilized in the course of the pro-gram or was there waste and slippage? Was thevalue of the result great enough to merit the costof attaining that result?

The dimension of alternative usage, however,compares one proportion of input to output withother proportions which might be attained. Itdeals with such questions as: Is there any betterway to attain the same results? Can the sameend result be achieved in different ways at lesscost? Of these two proposals, which willproducemost at the least cost to the agency? Would therehave been a greater value to the participants, tothe agency, or to society, if the same resourceshad been invested in a different program?

Let's start with the concept of program effi-ciency, which is part of current pushes for theinput of scientific (i.e., hard, data-supported)thinking into everyday organizational decisionmaking. Some now define evaluation as the proc-ess of providing "information through formalmeans, such as criteria, measurement and statis-cies to serve as rational bases for making judg-ments in decision situations."3

What is programming efficiency? For ourpurposes program efficiency relates to how wellthe program utilizes the resources that are in-vested in it. The Glossar of AdministradveTerms in Public Health defines efficiency as thecapacity of an individual, organization, facility,operation, or activity to produce results in propor-tion to the effort expanded."4 Suchman indicatesthat "efficiency is concerned with the evaluationof alternative paths or methods in terms of costin money, time, personnel and public conven-ience."5 There appear to be two important di-mensions to a concept of efficiency: one is theidea of proportion or ratio, the other is the ideaof alternative usage.

Current Approaches fat-Examining Efficiency

Along with the push for analyzing the efficien-cy of educational operations has come the conceptof system and of system analysis. A variety of

management activities hove a system base andfocus on efficiency of operation. Three of the mostcommon arc PERT, P PBS, and cost-benefitanalysis. Although this paper is focusing pri-marily on cost-benefit analysis which deals withhow efficiently resources are used in producinga product, it is important also to see the relation-ship of cost-benefit to the other two procedures.

Cost-benefit analysis is usually a sub-partof PPBS, (Program Planning Budgeting Systemwhich deals ith the overall budget operation.This system compares the efficiency of one pro-gram proposal with another by means of cost-benefit analysis. PPBS differs from other formsof budgeting in that it examines both resourceinput and the potential results from those inputs.Former budgeting approaches focused almostentirely on resource inputs. P PBS requires theagency to establish clear statements of expectedoutcomes in quantifiable or measurable termsand examine alternative costs and benefits incarrying out the mission of the agency.6

Cost-Benefit analysis and PFRT (ProgramEvaluation and Review Technique) often are teamedin examining the efficiency of an on-going pro-gram. While cost-benefit focuses on the relation-ship of investment to results, PERT examines theefficiency of the process by which the results areattained.

Ryden calls the procedure one of establishinga network of the events and activities involvedin developing the program. The network is agraphic representation of the project plan. Timeestimates and deadlines are established for eachitem in the network. Actual operations can thenbe examined against the proposed network to seewhether progress is proceeding as expected, andwhether resources are being adequately used inthose processes.7

System As An ImportantUnder lying Concept

We make better use of tools when we under-stand their relationship to the phenomena to whichthey are being applied and the circumstanceswhich brought a given tool into being. It is tempt-ing to borrow cost-benefit analysis as a tool andadapt it to our needs in adult education, consider-ing only cost-benefit per se. Our understandingwill be greater, however, if we take time to con-sider that cost-benefit analysis is a system tool.8It is based on the central premise that the activityto which it is being applied is a f_mern, or anassemblage of parts united by some form or rep'lar interaction or interdependence. Cornponentbinclude both the inputs in terms of men, money,

2

and materials to do the tasks of the system, andthe nature of the task itself. Those phenomena

make np the completed task are the outputsof the system. ln addition to inputs and outputs,however, one must also be concerned with theboundaries of the system, the component partsthat make up the system as a whole, and how thoseparts are organized.

And one must be concerned with the relation-ships of various systems with the idea of sub-systems and of super-systems. Most systems areresponding to the needs of some larger system,and the outputs need to be things wanted andneeded by a super-system. An educational insti-tution, for example, is a system, but the natureof its outputs are affected by what some othersystem businesses or industries, the commu-nity, or a segment of society wants. Within theeducational institution there may be a variety ofsub-systems at work, such as teams of teachers,and back-up personnel like audio-visual special-ists.

In understanding the systemic nature of hisoperation, the educator does well to look at twoconcepts of system. The concept that has beenoutlined above look3 at system primarily throughthe eyes of the engineer or other professionaldealing with system in terms of physical or opera-tional phenomena The second relevant concept ofsystem is that of the social system. Each part ofa system, sub-system, or super-system whichhas people involved and where these people sharesomething in common and interact in some fairlyregular way, comes to have a social identity withits own people-interaction parts. The nature ofthe social system has been described in variousways by sociologists like Loomis,9 and the rela-tionship of such systems to education by Forest.10Social systems become important in examiningprogram efficiency in that the various social sys-tems involved directly affect the efficiency of thephysical or operational system that is being used.

This adds up to complexity and to giganticproblems. The systems approach was developedas .a means of dealing with complexity and com-plicated problems. As production tasks becamemore complex and as problems became more andmore complicated, it has become important toanalyze the complex phenomena and identify itscomponent parts and the relationships betweenthe parts as a means of defining a problem andidentifying ways of dealing with that problem. Thesystems approach also is important in keepingcomplex operations going efficiently by preventingproblems.

Cost-benefit analysis is sometimes extractedand applied without regard to the position of inputs

and Outputs and process to the system. However,it is well to keep the concept of system and itsimpotance in mind as we move on to a .moredetailed description of cost-benefit analysis.

What Is Cost-Beneft Analysis?

Cost-benefit analysis is a procedure by whichthe cost of producing a product is compa7:ed withthe value of the product that is produced. In itsmost common form, both the cost and the benefitare described in monetary terms.

The followini-r descriptions of cost-benefitanalysis identify the basic ingredients and relatedideas.

By "cost-benefit" is meant the relation-ship of the resources required (cost) to attaincertain goals (benefit). It is based on theeconomic concept that many executive deci-sions involve the allocation (best use) oflimited resources among competing require-ments. The allocation of available resourcesis determined by a comparative analysis ofthe current system with presumably prac-ticable alternative systems.11

I I

* * *... any analytic study designed to assist

a decision-maker in identifying a preferredchoice among possible alternatives . . usuallyit consists of an attempt to minimize dollarcost sub-7,ct to some mission requirement(which may not be measurable in dollarterms) or, conversely, to maximize somephysical measure of output subject to a bud-get constraint."-L2 * * *

"Cost-Benefit, or Cost-Effectiveness,Ar.s is the quantitative examination oalternative prospective systems as to thepotential trade-offs with regard to the bene-fits, or effectiveness, to be gained and thecosts to be incurred among the alternativesfor the purpose of identifying the preferredsystem and its associated equipment, product,etc. Dollars are the units most generallyused, but any economic resource might, for agiven problem be the limiting factor e.g.,personnel." 1

The three descriptions vary in terms of thecomplexity of the idea they present. However, itis apparent that there is an emphasis on (1) therelationship of the technique a cost-benefit anal-ysis to decision making, (2) the technique as beingan analytical process, and (3) going beyond thesimple ratio of resources to results and makinga comparison of alternative ratios.

Quade suggests that there are five elementsof analysis, each of which is present in everyanalysis of choice, although they may not alwa.be explicitly identified: (I) the objective (orobjectives), (2) the alternatives, (3) the costs,(4) a model (or models), (5) a criterion. Thecriterion is the rule or standard by which thealternatives may be ranked in order of desirabilityand the most promising may be chosen. It pro-vides a means for weighting costs against effec-tiveness.14

A cost-benefit analysis usually consists offive steps:

I. Identifying the pertinent measures ofeffectiveness, i.e., benefit_

2. Describing the alternatives.

Expressing both mission performance andcost as functions of the characteristicsof each alernative.

4. Estimating appropriate values for theequation parameters.

Computing, analyzing, and presen g re-sults.15

Uses of Cost-Benefit AnalysisOne part of understanding a concept is under-

standing how it can be used.

Hatry suggests the following uses of cost-benefit analysis:

(1) To aid decision makers, in situationswhere funds or other economic resourcesare a significant constraint, in makingimproved choices among alternative sys-tems.

To provide indications as to specificareas for further study or research inwhich funds might be applied to bringoverall system savings or to reducecritical areas of uncertainty.

(4 ) To suggest, in certain situations, addi-tional alternatives that would fare wellin the face of the major difficulties of theexamined alternatives and that, there-fore, might be preferable.

(5 ) To indicate, for industrial users, themagnitude of the potential business formajor components of the preferred sys-tem at least, for specified effectivenesslevels.16

Carpenter and Ilaggart of the R ANDCorpora-ton, a company which has been closely identifiedwith the concept of cost-effectiveness analysis,have indicated the following uses for cost-effec-tiveness analysis in educational settings:

--to help assess the relative worth of severalinnovative programs with the same educa-tional outcome.

--to determine whether a single program isbecoming more or less effective as timepasses so that steps may be taken to improveit, if necessary.

--to help assess the relative worth of the sameprogram for different student populations.17

Like any tool, one must be clear in terms ofwhat the cost-benefit analysis can and can't do.

Carpenter and Haggart point out that:

"The goal of the analysis is not to providethe planner with the alternative that 'maxi-mizes' or 'minimizes' specific characteris-tics; the goal is to provide information whichtogether with the judgment of the plannerpermits a compromise among the character-istics of the alternate few within the variousenvironmental constraints, such as budgetlebel or political atmosphere."18

Levine cautions:

"It is not a substitute for the educatedjudgment of the decision maker. Rather, itprovides a package of relevant information onwhich to base certain kinds of decisions. Also,it does not favor the 'cheapest' or even the'best' program but the optimum program interms of the available resources (money,trained personnel, facilities)."19

Definitions of Costs and Benefits

As various components are identified andclarified in field operations, the jargon increases.For example, experiences in evaluating programsin the war on poverty indicate that costs may beof two types: direct costs and opportunity costs.

Opportunity costs consist at the other benefitsforegone; for example, what, if anything, would anon-the-job-training participant be earning if hehad been employed elsewhere and not participat-ing in this program?20

Benefits also have been defined as being oftwo types: private and social. Private benefits

are those accruing to the individuals involved.Social returns are retuens which accrue to theentire society and iv- t to aelv one individual.

One important component of a concept of bene-fits is that of the attainment of objectives. Eachperson who is management-by-objectives (oreducation-by-objectives) oriented will have toreconcile the degree to whIch the attainment ofobjectives is synonymous with the benefits of theprogram. In many instances benefits are definedas those changes which are defined in the pro-gram's objectives. Levine suggests that the ob-jectives, goals, values, etc., determine the agreedupon kind and degree of change. The objectivesconstitute the criteria which determine whether a"benefit" is in fact so.21 However, if one adaptsScriven's framework of effects of education tobenehts of education,22 it might be suggested that,in addition to the benefits directly defined in theobjectives of the program, additional beneficialeffects to others than those directly involved inthe program might also well be considered in ananalysis of benefits.

In some instances negative effects may alsoneed to be calculated and subtracted from bene-fits before the e-Ist-benefit ratio is figered.

Problems In Cost-Benefit Analysis

Cost-benefits analysis of education and socialaction programs is relatively new. There is muchyet to be thought through and developed in ordelfor the tool to reach its fullest value in thesesettings.

Even some of the strongest proponents ofc st-benefit analysis agree that it is not easilyor automatically carried out. Like many otherevaluative activities, much of the process is de-pendent upon human judgment.

Carpenter and Haggart point to some of thefollowing problems in using cost-benefit analysisin educational situations: difficulty in determin-ing the resources required in a program, the mis-leading nature of a single measure, the lack of afully developed methodology for cost analysis,difficulty in measuring effectiveness, the inaade-quacy of a single measure, the lack of methodologyfor estimating the effectiveness of future pro-grams, the need for criteria for effectiveness.2

Cain and Hollister give an extensive discus-sion of problems in the clesign of evaluating socialaction programs using a cost-benefit approach,24They discuss problems in specifying objectives,using control groups, the replicability criterion,statistical considerations, economic considera-

tons, including the discount rate and organiza-tional problems, such as timing and ability tohold design and internal data systems.

It is apparent that, at its present stage ofdevelopment, cost-benefit analysis is like anyother techniques of analysis. Operationalizationof it is based upon certain decisions and assunea-dons. As in other situations, these decisions andassumptions often are open to question. The in-dividual doing tile analysis needs to be able tosupport his decisions and assurnptiens. The extentof his ability to do so will, in 1_,art, affect thetruet that others will place in his analysis.

Techniques Associated WithCost-Benefit Analysis

Some of the problems inherent in operational-izing cost effectiveness have led to the use ordevelopment of some special techniques. Tech-niques particula/ly helpful in cost analysis orestimation, which appears to be developing into aspecialized field of its own, include: (1) LinearProgramming Techniques, such as statistical re-gression analysis for estimating costs of proposeditems which are generally similar but somewhatdifferent from those on which direct cost experi-ence is available. A distinctive feature of theresulting estimating equaticns is that they relateselected physical or performance characteristicsof the item to cost. (2) Pro ress curve Analys

for use in estimating future hardware costs inthose instances where varying the quantitativerequirements appears to produce a significantlydifferent unit cost. (3) Ei_-1 sis,to provide the basic information for describing thecost-generating characteristics of new or futurecomponents.25

One of the major problems in cost-benefitanalysis is the inherent uncertainty of the data.In order to make data more useful, various tech-niques have been evolved for testing the degreeof uncertainty or for identifying range under givenconditions. In sensitivi analysis the costs forthe most extreme variables re plotted and themost critical variables identified. Usually, costsare plotted according to the high cost and lowcost conditions.

A second companion technique is that ofsubjective confidence limits. In this approachthe range of values for each parameter is assumedto conform to a particular probability distributionand thus to indicate the likelihood of the varioussituations occurring.26

Variations of Cost-Benefit Analysis

As a tool is used in new settings, new adapta-tions of it emerge. Tanner uses the term utility-

1 31 5

cost sensitie ty analysis in a somewhat differentway. He makes cost-benefit analysis more usefulin situations where it is hard to affix dollar valuesby suggesting that value judgments based on some-thing (need, value, output, etc.) have usually al-ready been made about school activities and thatwhat needs to be done is to translate them into acommon numerical scale of utility factors whichwill show comparative values of the various ac-tivities.

In this procedure all of the activities to becompared are assigned a utility factor which

shows their rank in terms of order of importanceand preferences. These utility factors become thenumerators for their respective activity costs andthe cost-utility ratio is then calculated. Theseratios provide an index to aid decision makers inallocation of resources. The crucial step in thisprocess is assigning some type of numericalvalue of benefit which is not so much a value ofthe benefits to the activity itself as it is a symbolof how those benefits' rank in comparison withother activities which are being examined.27

Carpenter and Haggart suggest that there maybe value in educators constructing equal-cost

alternatives as a part of cost-benefit analysis.In such an approach, the costs of all programswould be held at the same point through adjustingthe dimensions of the program, such as the numberof students enrolled. With cost held constant, thecomparison becomes focused on differences ineffectiveness. As an alternative, equal-effective-ness alternatives might be constructed where theoutput is held constant and suggested programsare examined in terms of variation in input. Thelatter requires that it be possible to calculateoutput accurately.28

Another approach has been developed by apublic health team. They suggest that there arethree basic components of programs: Objectives(0), Activities (A), and Resources (R). To deter-mine program efficiency, they suggest that theattainment of the program objective which is at-tributable to the activity (AO) should be comparedwith the desired level the planners had expectedto result from the program (PO). The ratioAO:PO describes the effectiveness of the program.They define efficiency as the ratio between the netattainment of objectives (AO), output, and theprogram resources expended (AR), input (AO: AR).The reverse ratio AR:AO yields a measure ofaverage cost. They suggest that efficiency studiesmay answer several relationship questions:

1) relationship of objectives attained to re-sources expended, AO:AR or AR:AO:

2) activities performed to resources ex-pended, AAAR or \R:AA;

3) objectives attained to activitiesformed, AO:AA or AA:AO.

per-

To some extent the EMIS system (ExtensionManagement Information System ), which has been

adopted by the entire Cooperative Extee_sion Serv-ice, is attempting to examine some of these rela-tionships. Time is the major resource examinedboth in terms of activities performed and objec-tives attained. The system has an added dimen-sion of examining the time one has planned ascompared with the time that was actually spenton the various objectives.

III. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF ADULT EDUCATION

Some cost-benefit analysis of adult educationprograms is being attempted. However, if thereports in the ERIC collection are any indication,it would appear that the use of cost-benefit tech-niques has been limited primarily to I) programswhich lend themselves to achieving economic out-puts, and 2) programs which are closely associatedwith industry.

Over half of the 70 items indexed as cost-benefit analyses in the ERIC collection on Janu-ary 1, 1971, dealt with studies of training pro-grams. Many were reports ofOn-The-Job Train-ing programs or others carried out under theManpower Development Act. Some examinedother types of industrial training programs. Aboutten percent dealt with the cost-benefits of farmmanagement education programs, another ten

-)ercent dealt with studies of cost-effectivenessof audio-visual programs or other programs usingeducational technology. Three studies dealt withcost-benefit analysis of general adult educationprograms (Utah, Quebec, and Massachusetts), onewith adult basic education, one with Title I, andone e ith teacher decision-making. About a tenthof the references were general references to theconcept of cost-benefit and its use in educationalplanning.

The adult educator proposing to do cost-bene-fit analysis will do well to study the techniquesused in some of these studies and to consult withthose who did the analysis and who gained a greaterunderstanding of the procedure, potentials, anddifficulties through first-hand exTeriences.

IV. INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS AND ADULT EDUCATION

Cost-benefit analysis is beginning to be usedin adult education. It is a system's tool whichhas had considerable value in other settings. Whatis its potential value to the adult educator'?

Although a "$ value analysis may be of useto some programs at some points in time, agreater value may lie in broadening the conceptto one of input-output analysis and consideringsome of the philosophical qu2stions that may beinvolved in such analysis.

This final section of the paper will considerthe following questions: (I) Are we dealing witha system? (2) When is input-output analysis Len-portant to the adult educator? (3) At what depth,stage, and level should such analysis be done?(4) What are the key decisions In operationalizinginput-output analysis in adult education?

Are We Dealing With a System?

Fundamental to the concept of inpu -outputanalysis is the basic concept of system. Is adulteducation the educational program you are exam-

ining) a system? Should you view it as a systemwhen you attempt to understand what you are doing?

A few years ago there may have been anoccasional argument as to whether adult educationwas an art or a science. Now it seems that thequestion might be Is it an art, a science, or asystem?

It is possible that adult education is all three.Our difficulties may arise from not recognizingand utilizing the qualities of all three that arepresent. Adult education, or a given program-ming operation, is a system in that there areclearly identifiable parts united by some form,regular interaction, or interdependence. We knowenough about the process and some of the com-ponents to be able to deal with them as with ascience. And yet with the range of complexityinvolved with human variance, there is still agreat deal of art involved in adult education.

In other words, it may be extremely helpfulfor us to view our operations as we would aproduction system and to clearly analyze the parts

and their relationships. But at the same time wemust be constantly aware that in the complexhuman interactions which are involved in educa-tion, regardless of our care in planning and inacting, we cannot be sure that Z will automaticallyfollow if we apply X to Y in a certain way. Thesurety which is asually operating in manufactur-ing systems or other activities dealing primarilywith non-human elements just isn't there in adulteducation, unless we resort to techniques re-sembling brainwashing.

Frustrating as the complexity of the situationis, one might argue that the potential for varianceis a good thing that adults need to be free to inter-act with the educational stimuli in their own way,based upon their individual needs and individualexperiences. Certain inputs may result in certainresults in terms of certain students, but to de-mand that those inputs resuit in the same resultsfor ali students may not often be appropriate.

Yet it can still be valuable to analyze ourwork as though it were a production system if we*don't act as though it is a mechanical, semi-automatic process.

When Input-Ouput AnalysisImport:Int to the Adult Educator?

In ddition to looking at adult education as asystem, it may also be helpful to do input-outputanalysis. Each of us has to decide why we wantto do such an analysis and when it is most appro-priate.

Some educators may have to do input-outputanalysis (in this case cost-benefit analysis); insome instances they may need to do such studies;in other instances they may want to make sureof a particular technique as part of their processof decision making or as a means of gaining abetter understanding of the process of adult educa-tion.

The have to pressures may come from at leasttwo sources - programs directly supported by thefederal government, and situations where militaryor industrial experts (orother power figures com-mitted to the concept of cost-benefit analysis) areon local boards or in administrative positionsand are able to exert strong pressures for thiskind of analysis. In these instances, the adulteducator may have to be prepared to carry out,or have a fairly formalized process of cost-benefit analysis applied to his program.

Adult education may as a whole be moreexempt than other branches of education from thecompulsion to apply such ted-aliques, because

many parts of adult education are so structuredthat at least partial control rests directly in thehands of local citizens and there is direct visibleaccountability to those who are providing themoney to support the program. Pressures forcost-benefit analysis arc very apt to come frommore remote funding sources. The self-support-ing program which is not relying on tax moniesor other monies, and remote either geographicallyor in interest from the program, may be less aptto feel pressure for using this particular tech-nique, because judgments in terms of input-outputratio (in the sense of whether the value receivedexceeds the cost) are being made daily by thoseenrolling in and continuing with adult educationprograms.

Need to Input-output analysis does not be-come important to many adult educators until agiven resource is scarce and there is a good dealof need for it, or a good deal of competition tosecure it. At that point, the adult educator maybe willing to expend extra effort in order to utilizethe amount of the resource that he is able to mus-ter in the most efficient way possible.

There may be some adult educators thosewho have unlimited resources, or few pressureson those resources, and who have similarly blestclientelewho can luxuriate in being inefficient.However, if any shortage is involved, then effi-ciency rears its head (ugly or enticing dependingupon how it is handled).

Want to -Some adult educators may want tomake input-output analysis an important tool ofprogramming.

If an adult educator is strongly influenced bythe Protestant ethic, a good frugal up-bringing, astrong business motive or any of the related valuesyndromes, efficiency may be important for itsown sake. If so, the adult educator will be con-cerned with proportion and best use of resourceseven though the resources are sufficiently abun-dant to meet present and projected future needs.He will be efficiency-orientated because efficiencyis an important element in his value system.

Another type of adult educator who may atleast want to test out input-output analysis is theindividual who has an "itch to know" more aboutthe adult education process. Examining outputunder varying input situations can tell us a gooddeal more about how to optimize learning fordifferent types of clientele in different situations.

For these two types of adult educators andfor the individual who uses input-output analysisas a tool in handling a scarce resource, input-

output analysis can become a viable tool ratherthan a threat.

At What Depth, Stage and LevelShou 16 Analysis Be Done?

The Kind of input-output analysis which ismost often found in the literature involves a fairlycomplex process, utilizing sophisticated researchtechniques, which is applied at the end of somemajor program. As a result we are apt to havea fairly rigid concept of input-output evaluation.As a tool, however, input-output analysis can beextremely flexible if we are creative enough tomake it so. It can vary in depth, be applied atdifferent programming stages, and be applied ateach level of programming.

De th - Various continuums have been builtexploring the degree of depth of evaluation. Usu-ally the continuum has at one end the type ofevaluation that takes place in everyday thoughtprocesses and at the other some description of ahighly formalized process which draws heavilyon research procedures. There may be as muchvalue in applying input-output analysis at theeveryday end of the continuum as there is in

applying it in the formalized study sense. As wechoose between alternatives in everyday activitiesin adult education, it may be helpful to considerboth what we may need to invest in each alterna-tive and what we might expect as results from it.Although we may be more accurate in our con-clusions if we can marshal accurate data to helpus make comparisons, we may sometimes haveto use the data which can readily marshal anddiscount it on the basis of apparent limitationsrather than carefully designing a studtype ap-proach with substantial fresh data collection.Sometimes we just can't wait for the formalizedstudy. We have to draw upon past experience andwhat little we know about the new situation. Oneway of improving use of data at the point in needmay be that of developing information systemswhich will have the relevant data needed for aninput-output analysis readily at hand at the pointin time when we need to make a decision. Toooften, evaluation is thought cf as a point-in-timeevaluative study designed to secure data ratherthan an ongoing process utilizing data which isproduced by a carefully designed continuous datasystem. The system analysis approach tendstoward the type of design which condnually pro-vides high quality data for the types of decisionsthat need to be made when that decision arises.

Stage in Programming - Evaluative activities,including cost-benefit analysis, have traditionallybeen associated with the conclusion of a program.However, PPBS calls for cost-benefit analysis to

be applied to a program before the prop-ram isipproved for the coming year. necisions betweenorograms are based upon prediction as well aspast performance. Input-output analysis can beas important a tool in designing a program -choosing between alternative approaches to beused as it is in summative evaluation. The con-cept of proportion between resources and expectedresults and alternative usage are important ateach stage in the programming process.

Level of ProgramminK- Cost-benefit anal-ysis has tended to be introduced as a tool of topadministration. However, the concept of input-output analysis and its related activities may beas important at the very micro level (individualteacher-participant interactions) as it is at thevery macro level (the top executive making na-tional budget decisions which may affect literallyhundreds of individual programs.) An action inthe most micro sphere has an input and an outputand a proportion of return. In most instances,there are alternative ways that the output couldhave been secured or alternative uses to whichthe input could have been put. This is a part ofthe operational decision making that is the lifeblood of programming and guiding learning. Thedimensions of both proportion and alteinativesalso pervade all other levels of programming,although at higher levels more attention may bepaid to the alternative proportions than to theproportion of any one program.

What Are the Key Decisions?

The basic decisions which will give oi pro-grammer the most difficulty as he attempts tooperationalize a concept of input-output analysisin terms of his program are not those dealingwith how to quantify or how to measure andanalyze; there are ways of surmounting problemsin these areas. The basic decisions which mustbe grappled with and where the programmer willfind few easy and clear answers include: (I) whichresources? (2) whose resources? (3) output forwhom? (4) what outputs? (5) what is value?

In each instance, he will have to deal withthe philosophical as well as the practical issuesinvolved. If he is willing to buck what little tradi-tion there is and be creative, he has considerablechoice open to him in regard to each a thesepoints a decision and can choose what is mostrelevant to the needs of the situation. However,in each case he will be vulnerable to oppositionand must have his radonale firmly in mind. Ashe makes his choices and continues on his wayexploring the relationship a input to output, henot only must be independent and innovative, buthe also must continue to check the reliability and

validity of his decisions so that he doesn't end upexpending considerable resources on a house-of-cards that can be leveled by a few concise sen-tences from a clearheaded opponent. But thedecisions rest with him. As with any other evalu-ative tool, input-output analysis is a tool for im-proving and facilitating human judgment, but can-not ever replace it. Its quality rests primarilyon the human judgment that controls it. Thatjudgment is a part of the professional qualifica-tioes of the really top-notch adult educator.

Which Resources Although we automaticallythink of the money involved, other types of inputmay also need to be scrutinized.

In periods of a tight economy, both the par-ticipant and the adult education agency !nay beconcerned about money. The potential programparticipants may have heavy demands competingfor the money which they would like to use formore education. The agency can't produce nearlyas many programs as it would like, so it has toconcentrate on those expected to have maximumvalue. Even "society" as a whole becomes in-volved when there is heavy pressure on the taxdollar or other dollars earmarked for socialbetterment and those dollars could be spent inmany ways in improving the welfare of the popu-lation.

Regardless of whether money is scarce, an-other resource that must be taken into considera-tion is time both the time of the programmerand fie time of the participant. Both can investtheir time in a variety of ways. Which way willgive them better payoff for the amount of timeinvested?

Still another resource which is not usuallyfound in lists of resources, but which is a keyone in the programming situation, is that ahuman energy. This resource includes not onlyphysical energy but also mental energy used increativity and deep thought. Successful educa-tional activities require energy input from boththe programmer and from the participants. Toborrow the McClusky power/load concept,30 thisenergy at times becomes a limited resource andmay need to be used efficiently. There are otherresources, of course - personnel, supplies andmaterials, facilities which may be scarce and,therefore, require efficient utilization and whichat times need to be the focus a input-outputanalysis.

Whose Resource Inputs? The last sectionsuggested the importance of analyzing an adulteducation program from the standpoint of the par-ticipant as well as from the standpoint of the

agency. There may be at least four owners ofresources that need to be considered in input-output analysis the adult educator, his agency,the participant, and the broader society.

The adult educator is concerned about thoseof his own resources which he invests - his time,his energy, his creativity, the intensity of hisattention, etc. Unless he is functioning on hisown, he also must be aware of the use of theagency resources total manhours, materials,facilities, supplies, etc. The agency and the in-dividual resources are apt to rank uppermost interms of many adult educators' contemplation ofefficiency.

But alult education has an important elementthat is different from most other -production"situations. Its consumers are volunteers. There-fore, the way they view th e use of their own re-sources will become an important factor in termsof how much they will participate. Does a givenprogram appear to require too much from them(money, time, energy, etc.) for what they expectto get out of it? Or, more importantly, do theysee a strong enough value resulting from theirparticipation? Does a given activity within a pro-gram require so much that the individual willmentally or physically drop out? It is possiblefor a program to utilize the programmer's re-sources and those of the agency relatively effi-ciently but to be extremely wasteful in the useof the participants' time or energy. Most adulteducators have come to recognize that many oftheir clients do have certain limits to the re-sources they can invest and to take these limitsinto account as they develop programs. Forexample, "A $10 fee may be too high for the ex-pected clientele;" "Students in a night class havebeen on their feet for 12 hours and may have lowenergy levels; " or "Farm homemakers have to beback home by chore time." However, adult edu-cators may have given less attention, as they at-tempt to figure efficiency ratios on programs, tocalculating the ratio from the participant's pointof view how much did he have to put into theprogram (time, energy, etc.) as compared withhow much he feels that he got from the program.

The fourth owner of resources, somedmesforgotten by the adult educator, is "society." Inone respect the time, money, and energy of allthe individuals involved is part of a "societalpool." One use of the resources in that pool maymean that those resources are not available foro' der uses. For example, when the modern middle-aged matron is engrossed in formal continuingeducation courses, she is not spending that sametime on social causes and volunteer work. So-ciety may be losing something when she expends

her energy elsewhere. Granted, it may be gain-ing something else through her better unCerstand-ng of contemporary situations. But which hasthe most value at a given time and in the long run?

gtitput far Whom? Just as four separate butrelated entities make input investments into eachadult education program, so the same four theadult educator, the agency, the individual, andsociety may all be concerned with the output.

Basically we might say the most importantoutput is that which the participant receives andthe value of such output to society which reflectsback on the image of the programmer and theagency. But at times, all four may have separatedesires in terms of output. For example, the out-put wanted by the participants and the outputneeded by society may not always be the same.In the case of programs dealing with ethnic rela-tions, the white conservative may want some-thing that will help him ease his conscience, whilesociety wants decisive positive action from him.Participants may take part in other programs toincrease their own self-concept and confidencewith no intent of using what they gain from a pro-gram. Society may want greater production fromthem.

Realistically, survival and image enhance-ment are important objectives of the agency andof the programmer although we seldom are honestenough to put those particular cards face up onthe table. Sometimes the agency and the program-mer will invest inputs for the primary purpose ofmaintenance rather than the desired outputs ofsome segments of society, or some segment ofthe clientele. Or, in somewhat different terms,the agency is usually interested in outputs whichenhance its reputation in the eyes of those who havepower over the particular agency.

In addition, the creative, energetic program-mer is concerned with output which gives himsatisfaction. According to his own values andinterests, he may find some results of programsmuch more satisfying than some others.

Just as there are several sources of inputwhich, in relation to a given decision, may be im-portant for analysis by the adult educator, soalso there may be benefits to several sources.In some analyses, it is important to look at theoutput to a given source in comparison with theinput invested by that source. For example, whatdoes the participant gain for what he invests?What does the programmer get from what he in-vests of himself and his skill? What does theagency secure in terms of image and securityfrom its investment in a program? What does

society get in terms of We betterment of its con-ditions by its two-fold investment through theagency costs of the program and through the costsin participant time and money?

In other instances, it may be important tolook at the benefits to one of the investors whichcome from the investment of one of the others.For example, how does society benefit from theinvestments of the participants? How does theparticipant benefit from the investments madeby the agency? Although a given input-outputanalysis may concern itself with only one set ofresources and one set of resulls, occasionally aprogrammer may want to think through the meshof interrelationships between the inputs fromthe four sources and the outputs to those sources.

What Ou uts? What are the 9utputs thateach of the four expect? HOVV can they be cate-gorized?

Some adult educators would say that theanswer to the question, "What output should beexpected from a program?" is simple. "Ofcourse, it's the extent to which the programmeets its objectives." Others would say that inadult education the outputs are changes in knowl-edge, skill, and attitude. Some would view thiskind of output in almost the same way that theywould view the output of formal school youth edu-cation, except, of course, that the clientele areadults and, as such, certain differences in ap-proach must be utilized. Some would be veryspecific in labeling the precise behaviors ex-pected from a given program.

But is the identification of output quite thatsimple? Should one be concerned only with theextent to which certain learning objectives areattained? Some literature on evaluation pointsout that programs may produce both direct effectsand side effects and that the effects may be short-and long-range. Programs may produce bothpositive and negative results, often yielding ablend of the two.

Houle's explorations of reasons for learningwould tell us that not all who participate are seek-ing specific knowledge, skill, or attitudes.31 Ifthis is the case, then we might hypothesize thatthe socially-oriented participant may desire quitedifferent output from his pardcipation than doesthe task-oriented participant.

In some instances, there may be much moreconcern with broad development, either on thepart of the individual, or through him on the partof a community or segment of society, which canbe sdmulated, directed, influenced, or speededup

- 10 -16

through participation in adult education programs.This may be a more important output than theoutput related to the specific learning objectivesof a given program. In agricultural developmentprograms, for example, Hayes suggests thatchanging farmers' attitudes about using new prac-tices and continuing to learn new methods may bea more valuable result than farmers simpl adopt-ing one new practice in a given prop am. 2

There may be a wide range of outputs thatone or more of the four types of participantsmight desire. Some include:

I. economic im ruvement- outputs whichshow marked gain in the economic statusof the participants, the community, or theeconomy of a region or country.

action- outputs which result in direct ac-tion on the part of the participants.

g)ecific knowled e, attitude or skill - insome instances knowing may be enough.

4. development- "better" people, groups,or communities because of participatingin adult education programs. "Better"may be defined in several ways - moreopen to ideas, more productive, moreskillful in everyday relationships, bettercommunicators, more affluent, more at-tractive, more comfortable.

5. enhanced self-conggpt a feeling of"worth" and ability to proceed with con-fidence.

6. satisfaction and en`ovrnent - the pleasureof learning and/or interacting with others.

presti- the actual being among thosepresent may yield a value above and be-yond what actually happens while one ispresent.

The educator is faced with some philosophicaldilemmas as he recognizes some of the differentkinds of outputs that the various investors may beexpecting. He soon realizes that the results ofhis programs may not be quite so easy to defineas he once thought they were. Of course, he maychoose, to confine himself to education only in thesense of helping his participants add to theirknowledge, gain skill, or clarify their attitudesand develop some affective orientations, but isthat all the program will be judged by? Is it allit should be judged by?

The alert educator considers what outcomeseach of the parties involved may see as most

17

important- the participants the agency, society,and the educator himself. Then he has to decidewhat he is going to do with conflicting expecta-tions. His response moves from the realm ofphilosophy to a recognition of any political con-notations that may be involved.

Both the philosophical and the political con-notations must be c --idered too, when one isdoing an input-outpL analysis of a program. Ifsociety is nterested in the analysis, it (or theleaders that represent it) may not be satisfiedwith the analysis unless the benefits are definedin the way they desire. The militant black, forexample, may want benefits defined in terms ofincreased self-concept on the part of the blackand reduced racism on the part of the white, andmay not he satisfied with an analysis done on thebasis of benefits in terms of acquiring facts. Ifthe power figures representing society have thepower to support or to wash out the program,then it becomes important that the analysis bemade on their terms.

The Value Qu,estic!,-: As with other forms ofevaluation, input-output evaluation may ultimatelylead the adult educator to face the concept ofvalue. What is valuable to whom? What is mostvaluable? How valuable are the results in com-parison with the value of the investment? WHATIS VALUE? HOW DO YOU DEFINE OR DESCRIBEIT?

Our typical approaches to evaluation andtraining in research give us little preparation fordealing with basic value questions. And yet they,in the long run, are the heart of evaluation. Thebasic questions, not only in efficiency evaluationbut in all decision making in programming, ulti-mately deal with comparative value of the alter-natives. Over the years we have apnroached suchproblems by saying that we need more scientif-ically pure data. Scientifically pure data, however,has little utility unless it is applied in situationswhere someone is able to assign or relate it tovalue components. The adult educator cannotescape valuing by burrowing into data; as a pro-fessional he must be able to define and assignvalue and use data, statistics, and the tools ofsophisticated research to help him in this task,but bare numbers seldom provide the most im-portant answers.

If any firm answers are to be found as to thenature of value, they are as apt to come from thephilosophers as from the economists. Or, prob-ably, the adult educator needs to draw from awide range of disciplines as well as from hisown common sense and experience as he tries todefine the value components involved in his pro-gram.

In Conclusion_- It ould appear that, beyondcoping with cost-benefit analysis in a monetarysense when it is required, the concept of input-output analysis may have other values in im-proving adult education programs. Perhaps thesevalues lie not so much in "answers" which thetool can help to provide as in the philosophicalquestions related to resources, their use, andvalue of output that the programmer may haveto deal with as he develops the framework forhis analysis.

Here, cos :benefit is like other evaluativeactIvities In th t the real value may lie not halfso much in the "hard data" that such an analysismay produce as in the nature of the thinkingthat is triggered and the better understanding ofthat complex phenomenon - modern adult educa-tion.

Little time has been devoted in this paper tothe processes involved in carrying out input-outputanalysis procedures. We know much more aboutthe processes of producing data than we do about

the processes of using data. There is a danger

that the average fledgling researcher (and most

adult education Ph.D.'s are fledghng researchers)

will become so enamored with data productionthat he fails to deal with the philosophical issuesthat are involved. Data and the processes whichproduce it are tools rather than ends.

Hard data (scientifically processed informa-tion) is seldom hard enough to stand unchallengedand be accepted as conclusive proof in contro-versial situations. However, for years we havedeluded ourselves into a will-o'-the-wisp searchfor such proof. With our engrossment in sophis-ticated research techniques, we have minimizedthe other half of the equation. Data has no valueunless it is used. The challenge of input-outputanalysis and other forms of evaluation is notmerely obtaining scientifically pure (reliable, ob-jective, valid) data, but also using that data, in away that has value, ft is only then that the benefitsof evaluation will equal the costs involved. Therelies the untapped powerhouse.

V. REFERENCES IN THE TEXT

1. Robert M. Smith, George F. Aker andR. Kidd, eds., Handbook of Adult Education

Macmillan Co., New York, 1970), p. 324.2. Committee on Evaluation, Pro rani Evalu-

ation th Adult Education_ (The Adult EducationAssociation of the U.S.A., Chicago, 1952), p. 6.

3. Daniel L. Stufflebeam, "Toward aScienceof Educational Evaluation," Educational Technol-ogy, VIII, No. 14 (July, 1968), p. 6.

4. Glossar of Administrative Terms in Pub-:lie Health as cited by Edward A. Suchman,Evaluathe Research (Russell Sage Foundation,New York, 1967), pp. 64-5.

5. Ibid.6. Joseph H. McGivney, "The New Systems'

Approaches to Resource Allocation Decisions:A Second Look," Educational lechnology, IX,No. 12 (December, 1969), pp. 31-34.

For additional references on PPBS, see:Hartley, Harry J., Educational Planning-Pro-Erq:1-Ilmitr:-B.uSystetns Approach. NewYork: Prentice Hall, Inc. 1968).

7. Einar R. Ryden, "Program Evaluationand Review Technique," Keeping.Current, Publi-cations Review No. 21, Federal Extension Serv-ice, U.S. Department of Agriculture (Washington,D.C., 1967).

For additional references ON PERT, see:Case, C. Marston, "Tha Application of PERT toLarge-Scale Educational Research and EvaluationStudies." Educational Technol Dc No. 7(October, 1969), 79-8_

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Cook, Desmond L Pro ram Evaluation andReview Techni ue A. hcations Education.Washington, D.C. U.S. Departme t of Health,Education and Welfare, Office of Education, 1966.

Rothman, Stanley, "State Government, SocialProblems and Systems Analyst: A Clash of Cul-ture." Educational Technology, X, No. 7 (July,1970), 18-19.

8. James Andrew, correspondence, Univer-sity of Cincinnati, April, 1971.

9. C. P. Loomis, Social Systems: Essay!on Their Persistence and Chan e (Nostrand,Princeton, N.J., 1960).

10. Laverne B. Forest, "Analysis: What'sthe Situation?" (Paper, Division of Program andStaff Development, University Extension, TheUniversity of Wisconsin, Madison, 1970), pp. 1-11.

11. Abraham S. Levine, "Cost-Benefit Anal-ysis and Social Welfare," Welfare in Review, IV,No. 2 (February, 1966), p. 1.

12. Edward S. Quade, in Cost EffectivenessAnalysis, ed. Thomas A. Goldman (Frederick A.Praeger, Publishers, New York, 1967), p. 1.

13. Harry P. Hatry in The Encyclopedia ofManagemen_t ed. Carl Heyel (Reinhold Publish-ing Corp., New York, 1963), p. 122.

14. Quade, op. cit., pp. 4-5.15. Hatry, op. cit., pp. 122-23.16. Ibid., p. 124.17. Margaret B. Carpenter and Sue A. Hag-

gart, "Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Educa-

18

tional Planning," Education.1 Tec inology, X, No.10 (October, 1970), p. 26.

18. Ibid.19. Levine, op. cit., p. 2.20. Stanley M. Besen, Alan E. Fechter and

Anthony C. Fisher, "Cost-Effectiveness Analysisfor the War on Poverty," in Goldman ed., op.cit pp 143-44.

21. Levine, op. cit.22. Michael Scriven, The Methodology of

Evaluation," in Changing Concep of EducationalEvaluation, ed. Tyler (AERA Monograph Serieson Curriculum Evaluation, Rand McNally and Co.,Chicago, 1967), pp. 77-80.

23. Carpenter and Haggart, op. eit.24. Glen C. Gain and Robinson G. Hollister,

"The Methodology of Evaluating Social ActionPrograms," (Institute for Research on Poverty,The University of Wisconsin, Madison, 1969)

25. Hatry, op. cit., pp. 122-24.

General References

26. Ibid.27. Kenneth C. Tanner, "Techniques and

Application of Educational Systems Analysis,"Audio-Visual Instruction- X'RT -I_No. 3 (Marc.__1969), p. 90.

28. Carpenter and Haggart, op. cit., p. 30.29. 0. L. Deniston, Rosenstock, Welch, and

Getting, "Evaluation of Program Efficienc "eblic Health R_tports, LXXXIII, No. 7 (July,

1968), pp. 603-610.30. Howard Y. McClusky, "An Approach to

Differential Psychology of the Adult Potential,"in Adult Learnin ai_a_icL_IiIstruction, ed. StanleyM. Grabowski (ERIC Clearinghouse on Adult Edu-cation and the Adult Education Association of theU.S.A., Syracuse, 1970), pp. 82-3

31. Cyril Houle, The InquieeLpElind (TheUniversity of Wisconsin Press, Madison, 1969).

32. Samuel Hayes, Jr., Evaluatin Develon-ment Pro 'ects (UNESCO, Paris, 1966), p. 17.

VI. BIBLIOGRAPHIES

COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS: NEW AP-PROACHES IN DECISION-MAKING. Goldman,Thomas A., Ed. Washington Operations ResearchCouncil. 249 p. 1967. Available from FrederickA. Praeger; Publishers, 111 Fourth Avenue, NewYork, N.Y. 10003.

Since refinements in cost effectiveness anal-ysis in the past few years have made it highlyacceptable as an aid in decision making at highpolicy levels, 2. detailed discussion of someaspects and implications of cost effectivenessanalysis are thcluded in this book. The first fivechapters give an overview; measures of effective-ness, choice of analytic techniques, use of costestimates, and estimating systems costs. Chap-ters Six, Seven, and Eight give examples of mili-tary uses for cost effectiveness analysis, whilechapters Nine, Ten, and Eleven show applicationsfor government domesdc programs, the War onPoverty, and metropolitan transportation sys-tems. The last two chapters cover structures ofincentive contracts and of military industrialfunds. Extensive tables and references are in-cluded.

THE METHODOLOGY OF EVALUATING SOCIALACTION PROGRAMS. Cain, Glen G.; Hollister,Robinson G. Wisconsin Univ. 22 p. Nov. 1969.ED 044 611, EDRS PRICE MF 650, HC $3.29.Also available from Industrial Relations ResearchInstitute, 4315 Social Science Building, 1180 Ob-servatory Drive, Madison, Wisconsin 53706. Re-printed from Public-Private Manpower Policies.

19

Focusing on the evaluation of outcomes ( 'costbenefit analysis" ) in large scale social actionprograms, this paper examines issues relating tothe adequacy of theory and methodology as wellas the impact of different types of persons (aca-demics, politicians, program administrators) in-volved in the evaluation process. Problems ofevaluation design- control groups, the criterionof replicability (applicability on a wider scale),statistical analysis, and implications a differingsocioeconomic criteria - are considered in detail.The authors then propose a deliberately experi-mental approach which would permit programplanners and administrators to learn faster bytesting alternative concepts simultaneously. Usingan analogy with the court system, they also discussthe potential value of a "rules in evidence" ap-proach to setting standards for acceptance ofevaluation results. The document includes 19footnotes, followed by reprints and other publica-tions by the Industrial Relations Research Insti-tute and the Center for Studies in Vocadonal andThchnical Education.

EDUCATIONAL PLANNING; THE WORLD YEARBOOK OF EDUCATION, 1967. Bereday, GeorgeZ. F., ed.; Lauwerys, Joseph A., ed. 554 p. 1967.Harcourt, Brace, and World, Inc., 737 Third Ave.,New York, N.Y. 10017.

The 1967 world yearbook on education con-tains 25 articles on the theory of educationalplanning, the major current approaches (socialdemand, manpower requirements, and cost effec-tiveness) to educational planning, manpower andeducational planning in underdeveloped areas

pecifically, Africa and Latin Americc_ and thecreation and use of theoretical models. Relation-ships between educational and economic planning,historical trends and present patterns in educa-tional expenditures, educational and manpowerplanning in several of the major industrializednations, the Mediterranean Regional Project ofthe Organization for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD), urban unemployment inNigeria, primary education and rural employment,the training of planners, and rates of return oneducational investments, are among the topicstreated. The document includes an index, chapterreferences, and 79 tables, charts, and figures.

A THEORETICAL STUDY OF THE DEMANDFOR EDUCATION. Oniki, Hajime. StanfordUniv., Calif. 115 p. 1968. University Micro-films, (Order No. 69-8234, MF $3.00, Xerography$7.20) "h.D. Thesis.

In this study of the economic process of edu-cation, individual activities regarding educationare treated as a process of overtime resourceallocation. The optimum plan for receiving edu-cation is investigated in terms of a mathematicalmodel, and the demand for education is derivedby examining the effects of changes in parameterson this optimum plan. First, a theory is formu-lated which concentrates on how to spend one'stime between receiving education and engaging inwork, and how to divide one's income betweenpaying for education and saving. Costs are ana-lyzed as income spent and wages foregone; bene-fits are defined as improved labor efficiency andpersonal satisfaction. The model is then analyzedto reveal characteristics of a person's plan forreceiving education. It is shown, among otherthings, that one generally receives education be-fore engaging in work, that demand for educationdecreases when funds are scarce or when educa-tional costs rise, and that rising wages can in-crease or decrease educational demand accord-ing to whether the wage shift is proportional orconstant at each educational level.

INFORMATION SOURCES AND COMMUNICA-TION CHANNELS RELATED TO FARM PRAC-TICES ADOPTION IN CENTRAL INDIA. Sharma,D. K.; Leagans, J. Paul. N.Y. State Univ., Ithaca,Coll. of Agriculture at Cornell. 31 p. 1968.ED 041 210, EDRS PRICE MF 650, HC $3.29.Available from Department of Education, NewYork State College of Agriculture, Ithaca, NewYork ( 7),-T-Je Copy free; additional copies 250each).

idy's main purpose was to identify anddescribe the roles played by various informationsources and communication channels used bySehore farmers in the adoption of four improvedagricultural practices in U.P. District of India.

A sample of randomly picke,1 200 farmers wasinterviewed by questionnaire. Of the five infor-mation sources studied, neighbors were namedby all respondents, village level workers by 729,village chairmen by 26%, and agricultural anduniversity personnel by 20% and 17% respectively.Among the seven means of communication, fiimdemonstrations led by 50%, followed by radiowith 38%, audio-visual aids, general meetings, andreading materials. Five adoption stages wererecognized: awareness, interest, evaluati on, trial,and decision to adopt, Age, education, caste andeconomic status were discriminating factors,singly or in combination, i.n the use of all sourcesexcept neighbors and village local workers. Onemajor finding was that face to face contacts be-tween agents and farmers had the greatest influ-ence, and mass media the least influence on theadoption.

THE PLANNING AND COST-BENEFIT ANALYSISOF SOCIAL INVESTMENTS. (In INTERNATION-AL INSTITUTE FOR LABOUR STUDIES BUL-LETIN- 2/4-47, Feb. 1967). Scott, Norman.Feb. 1967.

This article explains cost benefit analysis,newest of the techniques for assessing the effi-ciency of public expenditures. Whereas socialbenefits are excluded from ordinary financialanalysis of investment, cost benefit analysistraces effects ever the entire period of reper-cussions on the economy and therefore on presentand future social welfare, to reconcile privategood with social good and private cost with socialcost, so imporuint where the state is increasinglyassuming economic responsibilities. Generaltechniques and main characteristics of economicplanning are discussed, and a macro-economicplanning model devised as a 15-year plan forPoland is described. Questions answered arewhat to include as costs and benefits, how to valuethem by establishing shadow prices and opportunitycosts, which discount rates to use in reducingfuture values to present values for comparingpresent costs, and what technical and socialconstraints the planner meets. Case studiesrelated to management, industrial relations, andmanpower training present cost benefit analysesof manpower retraining in WestVirginia, retrain-ing in Connecticut, and rehousing500 Indian fami-lies in South Dakota. Emphasized are implica-tions for economic planning and development ofgeneralized use of cost benefit techniques toapply to sector and national planning levels.

COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS FOR THE"WAR ON POVERTY." Besen, Stanley M.; andothers. 15 p. 1967. Chapter 10 in Cost-Effec-tiveness Analysis, edited by Thomas A. Goldman.Available from Frederick A. Praeger, Publish-ers, New York, N.Y. 10003.

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Two anti-powrty programs. investment ineducation and in highways and other public facili-ties should increase earnings and employmentthrough an increase in production possibilities anda fuller utilization of existing resources. Inevaluating training programs, there is consider-able evidence that training expenditures have areturn at least equal to that on other forms ofcapital investment; the return has both private andsocial components, and there are direct and op-portunity costs to consider. In a Massachusettsretraining program from 1958-61 the "net bene-fits accruing to society" were evaluated as about$3300 per worker; a similar study in West Vir-ginia showed net returns of about $4000 perworker. The Job Corps and the NeighborhoodYouth Corps cannot be judged properly by study-ing returns to other training programs, sincethese two programs differ significantly fromothers. New highways have benefits in real out-put and employment, new industry, and an increasein land values. There are many questions relat-ing to cost analysis in highway construction whichcannot be answered adequately at present. Untilprograms can be evaluated effectively, large scalefinancial commitments should not be made; pro-grams should be adequately diversified and stepsfor evaluation should be set up.

Adult EducationBroad Range ProgramsREVIEW AND SYNTHESIS OF RESEARCH ONTHE PLACEMENT AND FOLLOW-UP OF VOCA-TIONAL EDUCATION STUDENTS. Little, J.Kenneth. Ohio State Univ., Center for Vocationaland Tbchnical Education. 54 p. Feb. 1970. ED037 543, EnRS PRICE MF 650, HC $3.29. Avail-able also from The Center for "ocationai andTechnical Education, Ohio State University, 1900Kenny Rd., Columbus, Ohio 43210. ($1.75).

This review of follow-up studies of graduatesof vocational-technical education programs in-cludes studies published since 1965 and coversthe major fields of vocational-technical educationat secondary, -post secondary, and adult levels.Programs for special groups of individuals arealso included. Two purposes of the review are(1) to identify the job histories of graduates and(2) to provide baseline data for program evalua-tion. The review is organized around the follow-ing topics: The Role of FollowupStudies, GeneralSurveys, Studies of Specific Programs, Summar-ies of Placement Information, Studies of SpecialGroups, Benefit-Cost Studies, Followup StudiesProcedures, and Evaluation Summary. A 101-item bibliography is included.

RENTABILITE DES INVESTISSEMENTS ENEDUCATION DES ADULTES: ASPECT SOCIAL(THE RETURN ON INVESTMENTS IN ADULT

EDUCATION: THE SOCIAL ASPECT). Jobin,Ghyslain. Laval Univ. (Quebec) 10 p. 1968.Text in French.

This study investigated the return on publicthvestments in adult education for the Province ofQuebec as well as greater Montreal and QuebecCity. Emphasis was on the cost effectiveness ofpart time and full time formal study at ages 19,24, 34, 44, and 54. It was found that renirns oninvestments favor full-time over part-time saidy;that cost effectiveness increases with age and witheducational level; and that promoting higher adulteducation in the Montreal area would prove espe-cially advantageous.

A TEACHER RESOURCE ALLOCATION DECI-SION-MAKING PROCEDURE FOR AN EVENINGINSTRUCTIONAL PROGRAM OF A CALIFORNIAPUBLIC JUNIOR COLLEGE. Tayloe, RalphChester. California Univ., Los Angeles. 129 p.1967. University Microfilms, (Order No. 67-11,708, MF $3.00, Xerography $6.20). Ed.D. Thesis.

A study was made of the specific cyclicalsequence and detailed events needed to allocateavailable teacher resources to evening divisioncourses at a CaliforMa public junior college.Using data from interviews with participants andfrom other sources, a flow chart model was madeof the allocation procedure. Sequential activitieswere described as a part of one of three majorsegments of the total process: determiningfoundation courses; assigning resources to suchcourses; and controlling course enrollment. Find-ings included the following: (1) foundation coursesreceive the teacher resources, and are generallythe same as courses offered in the last similarsemester; (2) foundation courses grow to servecommunity needs by adding specialized courses ornew class sections; (3) average relative instructorcost per student (Spring 1966) was 20.66 millsafter six low enrollment classes were cancelled;(4) at the end of the six-week enrollment period,86% of total capacity was in use, effective costaveraged 24 mills, and departmental costs rangedfrom 17.75 to 45.87 mills per s4.udent hour for eachdollar of instructor cost.

CONTINUING EDUCATION: STATE PROGRAMSFOR THE 1970'S. Levin, Melvin R.; Slavet,Joseph S. '157 p. 1970. Available from RaytheonEducation Company, D.C. Heath and Company,475 South Dean St., Englewood, N.J. -/7631. Re-port prepared for the Massachusetts AdvisoryCouncil on Education.

Varying needs, largely unmet, were found inthe provision of adult education throughout Massa-chusetts, and recommendations were formulatedfor an articulated and adequate program. Lowpriority, -Afeak centers of leadership, and alimited and confused mandate emerged as major

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obstacles to effective ess. It wa_ found that, Oilthe basis of accepted cost benefit criteria, con-tinuing education programs tend to cost relativelylittle and pay off rather well. Moreover, thepotential market for basic education, high schoolequivalency, citizenship education, occupationaltraining, driver education, staff development andcareer development for government personnel,and other forms of continuing education far ex-ceeded current levels of activity. A policy decla---ation was suggested, followed by guidelines forprogram planning and student recruionent, ad-ministrative and organizational changes (includ-ing creation of a new division), financial andother measures to strengthen the statewide con-tinuing education system, a network of publicrelations officers, inservice and other trainingfor state employees, and scholarships for con-tinuing higher education. The document includesan index, a bibliography, 227 chapter references,and seven tables.A SUMMARY OF ACTIVITIES IN TENNESSEEUNDER TITLE I OF THE HIGHER EDUCATIONACT' OF 1965. SECOND PROGRESS AND EVAL-UATION REPORT. 129 p. Nov.1968. TennesseeUniv., Knoxville, State Agency for Tide I. ED027 461, EDRS PRICE MF 650, HO $6,58.

An evaluative and historical report is pre-sented of 38 university extension programs pro-posed in Tennessee during Fiscal Years 1966,1967, and 1968, under Title I (Higher EducationAct of 1965), together with a list of 13 programscompleted prior to June 30, 1967. The Univer-sity of Tennessee, East Tennessee State Univer-sity, Memphis State University, Tennessee Tech-nological University, and 14 other colleges anduniversities are represented by a total of 87 pro-gram involvements in such areas of communityaction and service as professional continuingeducation, leadership training and updating ofmunicipal officials, identification of commun]typroblems, public health education, urban planningand development, law enforcement, regional eco-nomic development, youth opportunities, guidanceand counseling, and training in adult education.Recommendations and explanatory comments onscheduling of Federal appropriations, new sourcesof revenue, development of institutional capacity,problem identification, program development andactivity, communication with adult lay leaders,evaluation procedures, and indirect cost deter-mination are offered by the State Agency for TitleI as a plan for future action.

UTAH ADULT EDUCATION SERVICES. ADULT

EDUCATION REPORT 1968-69. 39 p. May1970Utah State Board of Education, Salt Lake City.ED 042 941, EDRS PRICE MF 650, HC $3.29.

Major purposes for the preparation of thisreport on public school adult education in Utah

16

were: Lo provide the public with a description ofachievements, trends, and needs, and with mean-inglul cost accounting information; to make com-parisons and analyses of adult education by pro-gram, school district, and year; and to providethe adult education personnel with needed programmanagement and cost accounting information. Thetopics of discussion include: general adult educa-tion; adult basic education; estimation of programresources available for fiscal year 1969-1970;effective use of program resources; adult highschool completion; civil defense education; andgeneral educational development. Statisticaltables are included.

EFFECTS OF TEAM ARRANGEMENT ON TEAMPERFORMANCE, A LEARNINC-THEORETICAN '_LYSIS (In Journal of Personali and SocialPsychology, 3(5)/541-550, 1966). Egerman, Karl.10 p. 1966.

Three groups of six two-man teams, differ-ing only in arrangement, underwent two majorphases of training pretearn, where each individ-ual developed a proficiency in making a timingresponse, and team training, where each subjectused his timing skill as a team member. Individ-ual preteam proficiencies and the team arrange-ment were the only two variables used to predict(1) initial team performance, (2) the schedule ofreinforcement for each subject, and (3) the mannerin which team performance would change from theinitial to the final periods of training. This in-vestigation points out the feasibility of applyinglearning theoretic principles to a study of groupbehavior. The document includes two tables and21 references.

Audio Visual

THE IMPORTANCE OF TRAINING REQUIRE-MENTS INFORMATION IN THE DESIGN AND USEOF AVIATION TRAINING DEVICES. Prophet,Wallace W. George Washington Univ., Washing-ton, D.C. Dec. 1966.

Research is reported on determining thevalue of present synthetic flight training, anddeveloping programs of instruction to make opti-mum use of available devices used in army heli-copter training. Three equivalent groups ofpilotsreceived different training; the trainer group inan expensive sophisticated cockpit trainer, themock-up group in a less sophisticated plywoodcockpit, and the third, in the aircraft. All groupswere tested on the aircraft, with the mock-upgroup doing as well as the trainer group in allprocedures. It was concluded that beneficialtraining can be accomplished in cruder devicesthat may lack in physical fidelity for successfultransfer of training. For efficiency and economyof training and increased flight safety, it is sug-

22

-sted that training devices should be constructedanalysis of training requirements, which are

based upon psychological rather than engineeringneeds; and synthetic trai:;ing programs should betested for effectiveness, and provide an effectivemeans of reinforcing infrequently occurring be-haviors.

MORE ON PUBLICITY. Selby, David. In AdultEducation (London ); v42 n5 p, 304-10. Jan. 1970.

THE NEW MEDIA MEMO TO EDUCATIONALPLANNERS. Schramm, Wilbur; And Others.United National Educational Scientific and Cult.Org. A-2315. 1967. Available from UNESCO,PlaCe de Fontenoy, 75 Paris-7E, France ($2.95).

This study reviews the educational uses, ef-fectiveness and costs of the new media (radio,television, programmed learning, correspondencestudy, and films and audio-visual aids) and makessuggestions towards their effective use in educa-tion, new media have been used for upgradingnstrucdon, teacher training, extension of educa-

tion, literacy and fundamental education, adulteducation and community development. Generally,they have been effective, depending partly on theuse to which they have been placed, program con-tent, technical and organizational support, andthe context in which reception takes place. Initial,operating, and expansion costs are variable, Whilethe new media entail higher total costs, economiesof scale make low unit costs possible, as a guideto planners, check list of 17 key elements relatedto planning, organization and support, production,reception, and feedback is presented and dis-cussed. Emphasis is laid on the distinctions be-tween production and reception and among tech-nical components, content and teaching, support-ing communications and evaluation, and trainingprovisions. Planners are urged to take a systemsanalysis approach and to view the new media asefficient system components which may be used tomeet a recognized educational need.

SECOND SEMINAR ON DIRECT TEACHING BYTELEVISION (SCHEVENINGEN, 1968). 48 p.1969. Council of Europe, Strasbourg (France)Council for Cultural Co-operation. ED 039 590,EDRS PRICE MF 650, HC $3.29.

A seminar on direct teaching by television,held in Rome in December of 1966, created suchinterest that it was decided to call a second semi-nar, restricted to adult education, which was heldat Scheveningen, July 1-5, 1968. The subject wasthe assessment of needs and evaluation of results.The purpose was to compare, at a European level,the methods already developed in these two fields,pool experience, and promote coordination be-tween educational authorities and radio and tele-vision experts. Many kinds of research can be

23

useful to the assessment of noe s, but specialstress should be put on the study of society, cul-ture, and personality in one system of inter-dependent relations, functions, and values. Re-search into evaluation of radio and televisionprograms must have as its aim to make surethat the needs met have been correctly assessed,that the means employed for meeting needs arethe best, that targets have been reached, and thatthe operation is warranted in terms of cost-effectiveness. There is need for a pilot project,at national and international levels, on evaluationof the results of a series of experimental educa-tional television programs.

A COST ANALYSIS OF MINIMUM DISTANCE TVNETWORKING FOR BROADCASTING MEDICALINFORMATION. Dei Rossi, J. A.; and Others.84 p. Feb. 1970, ED 038. 988, EDRS PRICE ME650, HC 53.29.

Two specific applications for networks mightbe used to serve biomedical community: (1) net-working of the nation's educational televisionETV) stations for occasional or one-time broad-

casting and (2) networking of the nation's medicalschools for continuous broadcasting. These twoapplications are analyzed in detail. A second con-triOution of this analysis is the provision of dataand methodology for examining cost and effective-ness (in terms of physicians and students withinbroadcasting range) of configurations of subsetsof points in the full network. The data and method-ology could also be used for determining the maxi-mum cost for networks using media other thanbroadband television broadcasting, such as audioonly broadcasting in conjunction with slides orstill pictures. The cost attractiveness of net-worked, simultaneous broadcasting can also becompared with, for example, sequential broadcast-ing using mailed video tapes.

DIRECTED P RIVATE STUDY (In Industrial Train-in International 2(8)/320-322, Aug.1967). Jones,Lyndon H. 3 p. Aug. 1967.

Directed Private Study (DPS) has evolvedfrom correspondence study, providing some face-to-face teaching to offset the loneliness of thestudent. New types of courses have been de-veloped combining a period of residence withindependent study, such as the two-year corre-spondence study course in mathematics atMoscowUniversity, the Institute of Management (Kolodje,Czechoslovakia) seven-month boarding and six-month correspondence course, and the program ofthe Japan State Broadcasting Corporation. Anexpeximent at the University of Wisconsin, "Ar-ticulated Instructional Media," in its first pro-gram, in library science, provides seminars oncampus, independent study, and library projects.Detailed statistics on the comparative costs of

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full-time oral instri_ ction, correspondencecourses, and Directed Private Study are not avail-able, nor are relative examination successes.However, costs shown take no account of oppor-tunity costs, which tip the balance strongly forDPS schemes if the examination results are com-parable. Schemes of DPS should perhaps makeuse of programmed and taped materials. Wemust keep much of this work in the public sector.

NEW EDUCATIONAL MEDIA IN ACTIONCASESTUDIES FOR PLANNERS - I. United NationsEducational Scientific and Cult. Org. 206p. 1967.Available from UNESCO, Place de Fontenoy, 75Paris-7E, France (A.2285, $4.50).

This volume contains six cases on the use oftelevision, radio, and correspondence study-alone or in combinationfor instruction, Educa-tional extension, and adult education and com-munity development in American Samoa (ETV),USA (Hagerstown ETV), Thailand (Educational

Radio), Japan (ETV and Correspondence), and

Australia (Radio and Correspondence). Mostcaccn were prepared by a team including usuallyan educator, media specialist, and economist, whopresented the history, organization, operation,costs, and evidence of effectiveness for each proj-ect. In each case, tables and graphs present theevidence available to the effect that learningdoes

take place and that the new media, while they en-tail higher costs, can bring down unit costs,depending on how many people are reached. Dif-ficulties in planning, organization and supportproduction, reception, and feedback are noted,discussed, and pertinent recommendations pre-sented. Not unexpectedly, developing countriestend to have more difficulties - these are tracedto technical and financial constraints. They alsotend not to benefit from the economies of scale in

the use of the new media.

PROGRAMED AV PAYS ITS WAY. Johnson, LowellR. In Training_ in Business_ and Industry; v7 n1p. 36-39. Jan. 1970.

The Kohler Company found that programedinstruction can effectively reduce job trainingtime. Comparison statistics demonstrated theprograms more than repaid their costs.

Farm Management Education

ATTITUDES TOWARD ENTREPRENEURIAL BE-HAVIOR AND EDUCATIONTHEIR RELATION-SHIP TO INSTRUCTION. FINAL REPORT. Kittle-son, Howard M. 133 p. Sept. 1969. MinnesotaUniv. ED 034 894, EDRS PRICE MF 650, HC$6.58.

To evaluate the non-economic returns toinvestment of resources in education, a study wasconducted to determine the effect of farm manage-

rnent instruction on attitudes toward educationfarming, relationships existing between attitudesand farm income, and whether students' fittitudesbecame more like their instructor's with increas-ing years of instruction. The groups in studywere: (1) farm families who submitted recordsfor analysis in the 1967 Minnesota Farm Manage-ment Program, (2) farm families who had droppedout of the program later than 1964, (3) farm fami-lies selected at random from 10 counties, and(4) agriculture instruction responsible for farmmanagement programs. The 70 per cent responseto the 90-item attitude instrument revealed a gen-eral improvement in attitudes related to moreyears of instruction, with a strong suggestion ofdiminishing marginal returns. Families in otherthan well-organized programs had scores nega-tively related to instructors; in well-organizedprograms scores were positively related. Alldifferences in attitudes were vary slight. Thereis a need for a revision of methods, subjectmatter, or both if adult vocational agricultureinstructors want to claim significantly-improvedattitude as a product of their educational program.

THE DEVELOPMENT OE A MODEL DESIGN TOASSESS INSTRUCTION IN FARM MANAGEMENTIN TERMS OF ECONOMIC RETURNS AND THEUNDERSTANDING OF ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES,Rolloff, John August. 155 p. University Micro-films, (67-6364, microfilm $3.00, Xeroxed copy$7.80).

The records of 27 farm operators participat-ing in farm business analysis programs in fiveOhio schools were studied to develop and test amodel for determining the influence of the farmbusiness analysis phase of vocational agricultureinstruction in farm management. Economic re-turns were measured as ratios between 1965 pro-gram inputs and outputs determined by change innet farm income between 1964 and 1965. Datacollected include: (1) the relative change in under-standing of profit maximizing economic principlesindicated by the change in test scores, (2) thechange in farm income indicated by selected eco-nomic efficiency factors, (3) the association be-tween understanding of principles and the eco-nomic efficiency of farm operators, and (4) theratio between input cost of instruction and eco-nomic returns expressed as net farm income.In pilot trial the test group showed: (1) An im-proved mean change in test scores, (2) increasedvolume and economic efficiency in the farm busi-ness, (3) a positive association between farmoperators' understanding of profit maximizingeconomic principles and changes in their eco-nomic efficiency, and (4) $53.16 increase in netfarm income for each dollar expended by farmerson instruction. Refinement of the model proce-dure was projected as a means of advancing

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inquiry into the miero-.2conomic assessment ofinvestments in agricultural education.

EVALUATION STUDY OF FARM AND HOMEMANAGEMENT PROGRAM IN NEW YORK S'TATE.A six-part report. Alexander, Frank D. 238 p.New York State Univ., Ithaca. Coll. of Agricul-ture at Cornell Univ. ED 018 714, EDRS PRICEMF 650, HC $9,87.

In 1954 Congress earmarked funds far aFarm and Home Management Program to offerintensive on-the-farm counseling in managementand decision making. This six-part evaluation ofthe Program as it was conducted in New YorkState, primarily with dairy operators, was de-signefl to determine the program's effectivenessrelative to less intensive programs. Part 1establishes the representativeness of 250 partici-pants in the evaluation sample by comparing themto 150 nonparticipants on such matters as sizeof herd and farm receipts. Part 2 is the agricul-tural and home demonstration agents' descriptionof the program as reported on questionnaires.Part 3 examines the program through the eyes ofadministrative staffs. A case study reveals theamount of exposure of 25 participating familiesto 58 diff :ent topics in the program, such asanalysis of farm expenditure and agronomy. Astudy of a three-township area opens to questionthe hypothesis that the neighborhood automaticallyfunctions as an information diffusion channel. Acost-benefit study using the agents' time input asmajor costs and the farm operators' changes inlabor incomes as benefits, indicates that the aver-age labor income advantage of 87 participants in1959 exceeded the cost of the program. (Tablesprovide statistical data.)

THE CHANGE AGENT AND THE PROCESS OFCHANGE, RESEARCH BULLETIN 17. Nielson,James. 100 p. 1967. Michigan State Univ. ED029 180, EDRS PRICE MF 650, HC $3.29.

As a final chapter in the research to evaluatethe impact of the Michigan township extensionexperiment, this report focuses on why and howchange came about, what factors appear to be mostclosely related to change, and the ways in whichchange agents can most effectively help bringabout change. In the experiment, extension agentsworked intensively with farm families in fivetownship areas for five years; one of the majorobjectives was to develop and test techniques forincreasing agricultural output. It was found thatfarmers in experimental areas adopted improvedfarm practices faster and stepped up their use ofinputs more than farmers in matched controlgroups. Average value of total farm output in-creased $5,600 on experimental farms as com-pared to $3,400 on control farms. Netfarm earn-ings for the experimental sample increased an

25 -

average c)C $1,646 as compared with A38 for thecontrol sample. Benefit-cost analysis showed thatthe program cost S117 per farm per -year. Thedifferential increase in net earnings during thefive-year experimental period exceeded the totalcosts of the program by two and one-half times.Included are 32 tables, 14 references, and a modelof relationship among t-ypes of variables studied.

RETURNS TO HUMAN AND RESEARCH CAPI-TAL, UNITES STATES AGRICULTURE, 1949-1964.Fishelson, Gideon. 121 p. North Carolina StateUniv. University Microfilms, (Order No. 69 -7656,MF $3.00, Xerography $6.00) Ph.D. Thesis.

This study estimated rates of return to publicinvestments in human and research capital (formalschooling and extension and vocational agricul-tural education) in the United States agriculturalindustry. (Southern states were excludedbecauseof demographic and educational factors that wouldhave biased the variables.) Output per farm wasdefined in terms of human capital, research atstate agricultural ex-periment stations, aria inputsof land, labor, machinery, other expenditufes,and fertilizer. The lig distribution of researchwqs identified with the rate of adoption of hybridcone in corn belt states. Values of marginalproduct ranged from $0.25 to $0.61 per dollarper yeal (schooling), $4.96 to $19.86 (extensionand vocational agricultural education), and $5.81to $15.28 (res9arch). Ranges for internal ratesof return were 9.6% to 61%, 196% to 636%, and24.6% to 43.1%, reLpectively. Conclusions justi-fied additional investmmts in these kinds of educa-tion and research.

AN ECONOMIC STUDY OF THE INVESTMENTr7FFECTS OF EDUCATION IN AGRICULTURE,FINAL REPORT. Persons, Edgar A and Others.175 p. Apr. 1968. Minnesota Uni,r. E.D 021 989,EDRS PRICE ME 650, HC $6.58.

To determine the absolute economic returnto adult farm business management education, t'Llediminishing marginal return effect from addedincrements of education, and benefit-cost ratio ofthe educational program for participants and thesponsoring community, data were collected from3,578 farm business records representing farm-ers enrolled in farm business managementeduca-tion in 1959-65. Farmers participating in theeducational program were generally younger,better educated, and more affluent than the aver-age farmer described in census data. Polynomialcurvilinear regression statistical techniques de-scribe the relationship between investment infarm business management education and threemeasures of economic success: farmer's laborearnings, return to capital and family labor, andtotal farm sales. Farmer's labor earnings andfarm sales increased rapidly during the first three

19 -

years of instruction, declined for the fourth, fifth,and sixth years and then increased rapidly in sub-se ,ent years. The benefit-cost ratio for individ-u ,. farmer participants was 4.20:1. The commu-nity benefit-cost ratio when increased businessactivity was measured by increased farm saleswas 9.00:1. This study assists in establishing arationale for educational programs to increasecommunity assets and describes an educationalmodel for efficient program operation and growth.

INVESTMENTS IN EDUCATION FOR FARMERS:SUMMARY OF AN ECONOMIC STUDY OF THEINVESTMENT EFFECTS OF EDUCATION INAGRICULTURE. Persons, Edgar A., and Others.34 p. Jan. 1968. Minnesota Univ. ED 021 951,EDRS PRICE MF 650, HC $3.29.

To investigate the value of an educationalinvestment for farmers and the community, astudy was initiated to examine the relationshipsbetween costs and benefits. Aa instructional pro-gram in farm business and resource managementfrom 1959-65 was considered as the educationalinvestment, and benefits were assessed by exam-ining 3,518 business records of enrolledfarmers.A benefit-cost analysis revealed: (1) A farmercan expect to realize about $4 of labor earningsfor each dollar of investment in educational pro-grams in farm business and resource manage-ment, (2) Where the benefits to the communitywere calculated as an aggregate rise in farmlabor earnings and the cest included the aggre-gate cost borne by the community the ratio wasapproximately 2:1 where the cost included farmsales as a measure of business activity the ratiowas 9:1, (3) Diminishing marginal return effectswere observable in educational investments, (4)Over the 6-year period the cost effectiveness ofthe educational program was not constant, and(5) A rigorous, highly structured, and goal di-rected educational program in farm business man-

_ment proved to be an excellent educationalinvestment for the communities in this study .

OJT and MDA

THE EVALUATION OF SELECTED PRESENTAND POTENTIAL POVERTY PROGRAMS. Muth,Richard. Institute for Defense Analyses, Arling-tion, Va. 91 p. Jan. 1966. Available from NTIS(AD-682-203, MF 650, HC $3.00).

The study attempts to evaluate the efficiencyof two types of alternative programs aimed atincreasing ttie incomes of poor families. It dealswith programs involving education and training aswell as those which represent direct measuresfor increasing family income, In order to com-pare such programs, a common measure of effi-ciency is needed. The one chosen here is theannual cost to the Federal government of raising

income by $100 per year until the worker reachesage 65. A rate of 9% is used to discount futureincome. In evaluating education and trainingprograms, the criterion applied in judging bene-fits is not the change in employment but the in-crease in the workers' future earnings. In theabsence of adequate data on the benefits of educa-tion and training programs, it was assumed thatHead Start or nine months of MDTA or Job Corpstraining would yield the same average increasein earnings as an additional year of high schooleducation. The document includes 22 tables, withappendixes on Federal cost factors and the deter-mination of family income,

A CRITIQUE OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES OFTRAINING (In Monthly_ Labor Review, 90(9)145-51). Sewell, David 0. 7 p. Sep. 1J.0.

This edited version of a critique of cost-benefit analysis illumines the difficulties en-countered in measuring the returns from on-the-job training accruing to the individual, society,and government. Its hypothesis, that findingsfrom studies on the Manpower Development andTraining Act projects do not transfer to the Waron Poverty, supports a request for funding a cost-benefit analysis on training the poor under theManpower Improvement Through CommunityEffort project in North Carolina, It criticizesgeneralizations that have been based upon threepublished analyses of training schemes conductedunder the MDTA Act of 1952, the Area Redevelop-ment Act of 1961, and earlier State equivalents.It points up such difficulties as (1) treating popu-lations of the poor and unemployed as the same,(2) considering that improvement in income oremployment are not the only benefits, and(3) try-ing to calculate the value of complementary de-mands for labor created by using the newly trained.

AN EVALUATION OF INSTITUTIONAL VOCA-TIONAL TRAINING RECEIVED BY AMERICANINDIANS THROUGH THE MUSKOGEE, OKLA-HOMA AREA OFFICE OF THE BUREAU OFINDIAN AFFAIRS. Blume, Paul R. OklahomaState Univ. 261 p. May 1968. University Micro-films.

The adult vocational training received byIndians under Public Law 959 was evaluated todetermine benefits of institutional training pro-grams and to develop manpower policy recom-mendations. Criteria of the evaluation includedemployment experience, income, labor force at-tachment, and benefit cost ratio. Of the approxi-mately 670 Indians who received adult vocationaltraining, information was obtained for 220 fromschool files and by mailed questionnaire, Sometrainee characteristics were: (1) The averagetrainee was better educated than the averageIndian, (2) The employment and income levels

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were low by most standards, (3) There was afairly high noncompletion rate among the trainees,and (4) There was some indication that the ques-tionnaire response rate was partially affected bythe cultural and historical background of thetrainees. Conclusions were: (1) Completion oftraining results in an average increase in incomeof $1,929, (2) The average increase in employ-ment was about 3 and one half months of additionalemployment, and (3) The social benefit cost ratiowas found to be 2.39.

TRAINiNG THE UNEMPLOYED, Somers, GeraldG. (Document not available from EDRS.) Chapter11 in IN AID OF THE UNEMPLOYED, edited byJoseph M. Becker. 25 p. 1965. Available fromThe Johns Hopkins Press, Homewood Campus,Baltimore, Md. 21218.

Recent government f- aining programs (largelyunder the Area Redevelopment Act of 1961 andthe Manpower Development and Training Act of1962) are discussed. By examining results ofearl y experience under Federal legislation, someof the conflicting views on the value of these pro-grams are assessed. An account is given of thecontent, methods, and procedures of retrainingsurveys in West Virginia and elsewhere, withemphasis on job placement, training-related jobvacancies, selection, trainee characteristics,attitudes of nontrainees and dropouts, retrainingas an inducement to mobility, and the relation toneed and to subsequent employment. Companyand union programs, collective bargaining, and

ederally subsidized on the job training, and re-training in Canada and Western Europe are re-viewed. Last to be discussed are the gains andcosts of investment in human capital. It is con-cluded that existing public and private programsmust be expanded and integrated with oilier labormarket policies and must entail constant retrain-ing and upgrading, relocation allowances, and im-proved placement and guidance services.

THE ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF RE-TRAINING THE UNEMPLOYED, A STUDY OFTHE EXPERIENCE OF WORKERS IN CONNEC-TICUT. Borus, Michael E. Yale Univ. 228 p.June 1966. (Ph.D. thesis) (Research report toFederal Reserve Bank of Boston, 35). ED 010865, EDRS PRICE MF 650, HC $9.87.

A study was made of retraining programs in4 labor markets in Connecticut, under both AreaRedevelopment Act and state sponsorship. Thepurpose was to determine the benefits and coststo workers, government, and the economy. Thestate had pioneered in such programs so a samplecould be studied of those who had long work his-tories after retraining. The trainees were dividedinto six groupsthose who completed the coursewith and without employment, those who withdrew,

27 21

with and without employment, and those who re-fused retraining, with and without employment.Three control groups were trainees who, withoutemployment, completed the course, withdrew, orrefused it. The benefit cost ratio for the individ-uals (such as reduced annual unemployment andincreased annual wage vs. income lost duringtraining and higher income tax afterwards) wasnot as high as the benefit to the government (suchas reduced costs of unemployment and publicassistance), and to the economy (the increase ingross national product and reduced aggregate un-employment level). It was felt that the beneficialeffects of the retraining programs might be low-ered by the addition of the Manpower Develop-ment and Training Act provision for training thehard core unemployed.

THE EVALUATION OF GOVERNMENT PRO-GRAMS: THE CASE OF NEW HAVEN'S MAN-POWER TRAINING ACTIVITIES. Goldfarb, RobertS. 260 p. 1968. Yale Univ., Ph.D. Thesis. Avail-able from NTIS (PB-182-173, MF 650, HC $3.00).

This thesis attempts to deal with difficultmethodological problems of program evaluation;the particular programs considered are two typesof manpower training programs: institutional or"classroom" training and government-subsidizedon-the-job training. Characteristics of cost-benefit analysis are investigated and the methodis critized for use in analyzing manpower pro-grams. Two data sources are used to study theproduction process. First, a group of traineeswho underwent each type of training were inter-viewed. Second, employers who participated inthe OJT program were interviewed, as were agroup of the largest employers in the New Havenarea.

MANPOWER TRAINING: SOME COST DIMEN-SIONS. Young, Stanley. 51 p. n.d. Massachu-setts Univ., Amherst. Labor Relations and Re-search Center. ED 027 390, EDRS P RICE MF 650,HC $3.29.

Some of the dimensions of the relative finan-cial contribution of the cooperating parties inmanpower institutional training as established un-der the Manpower Development and Training Actof 1962 were explored. This analysis will providesome perspective to those who must finally decidethe question of relative financial contribution, orprovide them with a certain range of the costdimensions of the program. Discussed in thisdocument are: (1) some cost dimensions of man-power training, (2) total cost of the manpowerdevelopment program, (3) space, equipment, pro-gram planning and on-the-job institutional train-ing, (4) indirect cost, (5) cost requirement, (6)individual educational return, (7) the training gap,(8) cost effectiveness, (9) MDTA as a bridge

between industry and education, (10) new occupa-tions, (11) public relations and community liaison,(12) MDTA contribution to local training effort,(13) the Keene., New Hampshire project, (14) edu-cational innnvation, (15) some problems. It wasrecommended that Jn integrated decision-makingsystem in the occupational training area be de-veloped to insure th at the total occupational train-ing effort of the Federal Government achievesthe worthy goal of training all individuals to theirfull capacity.

A BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS OF THE NEIGH-BORHOOD YOUTH CORPS: THE OUT-OF-SCHOOL PROGRAM IN INDIANA. Borus, MichaelE and Others. In Human Resources; v5 n2p. 139-159. Spr. 1970,

Neighborhood Youth Corps (NYC) out-of- schoolprograms in Indiana were studied to determinebenefits to society from training and employmenteffortsincreased aggregate output and increasedemployability of prirticipants. Benefits in enroll-ing male particip,ints were consiciernbly higherthan those derived from enrolling females; ratiowas at least two to one for males and less thanone for females. Assuming the saine costs forparticipants, benefits from enrolling trainees withless than nine years of education were substan-tially greate-i- than training more educated en-rollees. For participants, benefits varied withthe duration of enrollment; for males and somefemales, the longer participation the greater wasthe increase in post-program earnings. Thesefindings differ significantly from previously pub-lished studies. Also, contrary to earlier find-ings, males gained more from participation thandid females. This conclusion may, however, bedue to differing demographic characteristics ofthe enrollees. Furthermore, although a coii-ela-tion is assumed be tween length ofparticipation andderived benefits, perhaps those qualities whichwere associated with an individual's longer par-ticipation in the program were also related to hisincreased earnings,

HOW FARE MDTA EX-TRAINEES? AN EIGHT-EEN MONTHS FOLLOW-UP STUDY OF FIVEHUNDRED SUCH PERSONS. 219 p. Dec. 1967.London, H. H. Missouri Univ., Columbia Officeof Manpower Polity, Evaluation, and Research(DOL), Washington, D.C. OEC-81-24-25. Avail-able from NTIS (Order No. FB 177626, MF 650-FIC $3.00),

This study examined the socioeconomicback-ground characteristics of Manpower Developmentand Training Act ex-trainees, the socioeconomicchanges that occurred after training, the long-andshort-range effectiveness of the services receivedunder the MDTA program, and how these may beimproved. For approximately 500 persons who

completed an MDTA program in St. Louis, KansasCity, and Joplin, Missouri, from October 1, 1964through September 30, 1965, followup interviewswere held at 6-, 12-, and 18-month intervals,and employers rated their performance followingeach of the three interviews. Additional datawere collected from the records of relevant stateand local public agencies. Some findings were:(1) 21.4 per cent of the ex-trainees were receiv-ing some form of welfare for an average of 14.8months some time during the 18 months preced-ing training, (2) Pretraining work history wasboth erratic and irreplar, (3) Personal service,semiskilled, skilled, and unskilled, in that order,together with clerical, accounted for the majorityof post-training jobs, and (4) Neither the type ofjob nor the wages received seemed to have anyappreciable bearing on attimde toward the j9b,and most liked their work very well or fairlywell. Findings led to 10 major conclusions andsix recommendations for improvement of MDTAprograms. Copies of the data-gathering instru-ments used and 62 detailed statistical tables areincluded.

A BENEFIT COST ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHCAROLINA MDTA PROC TZAM. PRELIMINARYREPORT. 64 p. South Carolina Univ., Columbia.Bureau of Business and Economic Research. ED029 980, EDRS PRICE MF 650, HC $3.29. Alsoavailab:t2 from the Bureau of Business and Eco-nomic Research, University of South Carolina,Columbia, South Carolina 29208, (without charge).

Manpower Development and Training Act(MDTA)- programs completed in 1965 were evalu-ated by benefit-cos:: ratio and internal rate of re-turn. Initial annual earnings differential figuresat $525,650 and $719,629 were projected into thefuture at various rates of promotion and variousrates of discount on the benefit stream. Result-ing lifetime benefits (for 30 working years) rangefrom $2,556,110 at a zero promotion rate and20 per cent discount rate on the first figure to$15,162,977 at a 3.5 promotion rate and a 3 percent discount rate for the $719,629 figure. Theseprojected benefits may be compared with the totalprpgram cost of $3,097,616. On the other hand,the internal rates of return on the training outlayof $3,097,616 range from 16.29 per cent at zerorate of promotion for the $525,650 figure to 26.20per cent at the 3.5 rate of promotion for the$719,629 figure. An alternative for the cost out-lay would have to exceed the rate of return if thetraining were to be considered economically un-profitable. It was concluded that, under the cir-cumstances and assumptions of the study, train-ing conducted under MDTA is worthwhile withbenefits greatly exceeding costs and internal ratesof return high. Assessments of individual pro-grams are also provided.

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BENEFIT-COSI ANALYSIS OF TAT PHASE IWORKER TRAINING. TRAINING AND TECH-NOLOGY PROJECT. SPECIAL REPORT. Kirby,Frederick C.; Castagma, Paul A. 34p. July 1969.Atomic Energy Commission, Oak Ridge, Tenn.ED 034 039, EDRS PRICE MF 650, HC $3.29.

The purpose of this study is to estimatecosts and benefits and to compute alternativebenefit-cost ratios for both the :Individuals andthe Federal Government as a result of investingtime and resources ir the Training and Technology(TAT) Project. TAT is a continuing experimentalprogrun in training skilled workers for privateindustry. The five occupational areas includedin the study are mechanical drafting, welding,machining, industrial electronics, and physicaltesting-quality control. Data were obtained byanalyzing two samples of 70 persons each; onesample selected from 407 TAT trainees, the othersample from 1,500 qualified applicants not ad-mitted because of limited space. The method-ology, the cost of training to the Federal Govern-ment, the expected value of income differencesbetween the trained and control groups by year,the expected value of tax differences accruing tothe Fcderal Government by year, and the compu-tation of the number of deductions per pay checkare appended.

CONTRIBUTIONS AND COSTS OF MANPOWERDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING. POLICYPAPERS IN HUMAN RESOURCES AND INDUS-TRIAL RELATIONS, NO. 5. Mangum, Garth L.Michigan Univ. 95 p. Dec. 1967. ED 021 949,EDRS PRICE MF 650, HC $3.29. Document alsoavailable from Publications Office, Institute ofLabor and Industrial Relations, Museums Annex,Ann Arbor, Michigan 48104 ($2.00).

As a part of a larger project under grantfrom the Ford Foundation to evaluate federalmanpower policies and programs, this evaluationof the training efforts under Title II of the Man-power Development and Training Act (MDTA)made use of data provided by the Departments ofLabor and Health, Education, and Welfare. By theend of fiscal 1967, 1.2 billion dollars had beenobligated for training the unemployed and under-employed under Title II of the Act. As the com-bined result of original congressional intent andsubsequent experience, MDTA induced programshave come to have six potential and identifiableobjectives: (1) facilitating employment of theunemployed, (2) reducing poverty, (3) lesseninginflationary pressures, (4) meeting labor short-ages, (5) upgrading the labor force, and (6) re-vamping traditional institutions. On the basis ofa detailed analysis of both quantifiable and non-quantifiable accomplishments, the extent to whicheach objective has been achieved is examinedand estimates of the overall costs of the program

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are made before turning to a review of c-ost-benefit studies for compa:- son with previouselusions. The results of the appraisal are clearlyfavorable. In general, every current componentmay not pay, but the overall contributions of theprogram have exceeded its costs by a marginwhich not only merits support but justifies ex-pansion.

A BENEFIT COST ANALYSIS OF MANPOWERRETRAINING (in Proceedin s of the 17th AnnualMeetiE, Industrial Relations Research Associa-tion, Chicago, Dec. 28-29, 1964, pp. 172-85).Somers, Gerald G., and Stromsdorder, Ernst W.16 p. 1965.

In a study (1962-64) designed to evaluate bene-fits and costs of manpower training, 1379 WestVirginia workers were surveyed-501 Area Re-deve]opment Act or Area Vocational TrainingProgram trainees, 233 program dropouts, 65 whowere accepted but did not report, 127 "rejects",,Ind 453 randomly chosen nontrainees (the controlgroup). By the summer of 1962, 60 per cent otrainees were employed versus 56 per cent of thedropouts and about a third of the others. A yearlater, employment rates were up for all groups,with 71 per cent for trainees and slightly less forother groups. About 12 per cent of successfultrainees were out of the labor force (Summer1962), with similar percentages among the otherF.Trainees consistently had higher rates of em-ployment than others of comparable age, educa-tional level, or employment background. Between70 and 75 per cent of trainees have found jobs,almost all in training related occupations, andearnings (especially among men) have substan-tially increased. Payback periods (time requiredfor differential earning gains to offset total -training costs) have tended to be short, especiallyfor men, and shorter for individuals than for so-ciety. Overall results indicate that-the benefitand potential benefits of manpower retraining willgreatly outweigh costs regardless of local cir-cumstances. Document includes foomotes and3 tables.

DETERMINANTS OF RATES OF RETURN TOINVESTMENT IN ON-THE-JOB TRAINING. Raf--mussen, Dale Bruce. Southern Methodist Univ.159 p. Mar. 1969. Available from NTIS (PB-184-024, MF 650, HC $3.00). Ph.D. Thesis.

The study evaluates public investment in on-the-job training (OJT) and tries to identify sys-tematic determinants of the profitability of thisinvestment. Profiles ot age and earnings byoccupation are estimated for the South and otherregions, and for whites and non-whites, from datain the one-in-1,000 census sample and are thenadjusted to the regional level using wage surveyindexes. Concepts of profitability reflect three

kinds of assumptions: (1) trans ers (governmentexpenditures for allowances to trainees) are not acost; (2) transfers are a cost; (3) increases intax revenue are the sole benefit derived fromOJT. The methodology of the study is an aggregate approach to evaluating investment by utiliz-ing detailed information describing individuals.

THE ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF ON-THE-JOB TRAINING: THE EXPERIENCE OF THEBUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS IN OKLAHOMA.Scott, Loren C. In Industrial and Labor RelationsReview; v23 n2 p. 220-236. Jan. 1970.

In 1958 the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA)instituted an on-the-job training program (OJT)in which Indian participants could increase theirskills through work experience. As an incentiveto firms to undertake this training, a partial wagesubsidy was provided. Indians desiring OJT werescreened by the Bureau and then referred to thefirm for employment and training. Informationobtained from participating employers suggeststhat the length of training periods is generally toolong. A theoretical framework for benefit, costanalysis of the program was developed along thefollowing dimension: (1) private benefits; (2) so-cial benefits; (3) private costs; and (4) socialcosts. The private, explicit benefits are reflectedin changes in earning and employment experiencesof the trainees. These benefits are impressivesince trainees earned an average of $125 moreper month after participation. Due to the rela-tively small number of participants entering anyone occupation, it is unlikely that there was anysignificant change in the labor supply in that field.Though there were no private costs to the trainee,taxpayers did bear the expense of providing thetraining. Data are also presented in this articleregarding completion of training, characteristicsof the trainees, and productivity differentials.

RETURNS FROM INVESTMENT IN SCHOOLINGAND ON-THE-JOB TRAINING. Johnson, Thomas.133 p. 1969. North Carolina State University atRaleigh. University Microfilms, (Order No, 70-9191, MF $3.00, Xerography $6.40). Ph.D. Thesis.

This study was made to develop a modelwhich will predict lifetime earnings and to usethis model to investigate the relation betweenschooling and on-the-job training (OJT) as a func-tion of race and regions, trying to distinguishearnings differences due to differences in the re-turn on investments made and differences inopportunities to make investments in OJT. Themodel was developed by representing an individ-ual's investment in human.capital as a continuousprocess, rather than a series of discrete invest-ments. The data employed were the earningsprofiles by race and region which Hanoch (1965and 1967) estimated from the 1960 census one-

24

in-1,000 sample s rvey. Results indicated that,for most levels of schooling, it cannot be shownthat non-whites received a lower rate of returnthan whites; and that for most of the region-schooling groups, nonwhites also invest at leastas large a fraction of their earning capacity inOJT as do whites. It was concluded that the modeldeveloped can well predict the average earningsstreams of broad aggregates of persons. How-ever, problems were met in data limitations onestimation of base earnings capacity and therewas a problem of identifying discrimination. Itis of interest that marginal market discrimina-tion was indicated at only a few schooling or skilllevels.

TrainingGen ral

A GENERALIZED NETWORK MODEL FO'TRAINING AND RECRUITING DECISIONS INMANPOWER PLANNING. Charnes, A.; andOthers. Carnegie-Mellon Univ. 16 p. May 1970.Available from NTIS (AD-711-836, MF 650, HC$3.00).

Models for manpower planning previouslydevised for the U.S. Nawy's Office of CivilianManpower Management hays, all utilized goal pro-gramming constructs with embedded Markoffprocesses. These models referred to as 'OCMMModels' are here extended to include trainingelements along with related constraints.

COSTS AND BENEFITS OF ADULT RETRAININGIN THE UNITED KINGDOM. Ziderman, A. In-8conornica- v36 n144 P. 363-376 Nov. 1969

_Indirect effects of retraining on the resources

of the economy include an increase in the numberof skilled workers in an area which suffers froma shortage of qualified; but if retrained workersmerely displace other, less qualified, workerswho join the unemployed, then there is no benefitto the economy. A relatively accurate and com-monly used method for measuring the economicbenefits of retraining is to compare the perform-ance over a period of time of a group of retrainedworkers with a control group who were nottrained. This method fails to take into accountthe inherent qualities of the workers chosen forretraining. The situation is aggravated if (as inGreat Britain) retraining is given to employedworkers as well as to the unemployed. Despitethe complexity of the retraining cycle, it is possi-ble to calculate the over-all return to society ofinvesting resources in government programs. Onthe basis of figures for the year 1966, a table hasbeen drawn up which shows costs, benefits, aver-age pay-back period, and rate of return. Thedrawback is thai these figures do not take intoaccount the indirect effects (vacancies createdby workers being trained, retrained workers

30

displacing others, etc.). The method is useful butthe availability of data on the indirect effectsmight well produce different results. The resultscan, therefore, only be considered indicative ofthe positive benefits of retraining.TR AINING COSTS WITH REFERENCE TO THEINDUSTRIAL TRAINING ACT. Garbutt, Douglas.210 p. 1969. 1,kvailabie from Gee and Company(Publishers) Limited, 151 Strand, London W.C. 2,England (52s 6d).

Provisions and implications of the BritishIndustrial Training Act of 1964 (including the sys-tem of training grants and levies) are set forth.Procedures for accounting and budgeting fortraining costs, routines for collecting traininginformation, documents (budgets, cost sheets,control statements) for collecting and controllingcosts, means of estimating expenditures for train-ing activities, and steps in planning the trainingfunction for optimum costs and benefits are alsodiscussed. The point is stressed that, while dataon how much training is done by a firm must begathered if grants are to be obtained, relativelyminor adjustments from previous methods of datagathering will suffice. Personnel payments andfringe benefits, overhead, production, insurance,administration, transportation and travel, depre-ciation, materials, and other cost categories aresuggested for calculating training costs. Thedocument alse includes a diagram of the indus-trial training system, based on cooperation byindustry with the Departments of lechnology andLabour; descriptions of a graduate training and astudent trainee scheme; lists of statutory instru-ments affecting the Civil Air Transport Board andthe engineering industry; and 78 other figures.

OPERATOR TRAINING IN INDUSTRY. Seymour,W. Douglas. 55 p. 1965. Institute of PersonnelManagement, London (England). Available fromInstitute a Personnel Management, 80 FetterLane, London E.C. 4, England (7s 6d).

Guidelines and objectives are set forth formore effective training of machine operators andother semiskilled and unskilled industriai work-ers. Basic kinetic and perceptual elements ofmanual skill development are briefly reviewed.Operative training itself is analyzed under thefollowing headings: handwork without tools; hand-work with tools; single purpose machine work;multiple purpose machine work; group machinework (as in cotton weaving); and nonrepetitivework involved in such activities as inspectionand steelmaking. Nine figures and 24 referencesare included.CONCEPTUAL ISSUES IN EVALUATING TRAIN-ING PROGRAMS. Weisbrod, Burton A. InMonthW Labor Review, v89 n10, October 1966.7 p. Oct. 1966.

31

Based on the assumption that training pro-grams ordinarily involve both benefits (advLtages) and costs (disadvantages), this article dis-cusses the form of such effects in the manpowertraining area, and presents seine suggestions re-garding measurement methods. The need toevaluate training programs in terms of theireffects on efficiency of resource allocation andon the distribution of income is underscored.

C-130 PHASE I PILOT TRAINING PROGRAM(CCTS). Shaw, Tack B.; and Others. 172 p. Apr.1969. Tactical Airlift Center,. Pope APB, NorthCarolina. Available from NTIS (AD-700-987,ME 650, HC $3.00).

This is a detailed study of the C-130 Phase I(CCTS) pilot training program conducted by the442nd Combat Crew Training Wing at StewartAir Force Base, Tennessee. The purpose of thestudy was to determine the most effective trainingprogram that will continue to produce highly quali-fied pilots at the least cost. The program wasevaluated and compared with other representativemilitary and civilian training programs. Analysisof the program was concerned with increases ingraduate quality and simultaneous decreases in

student pipeline time and training costs. Changesproposed include revision of existing programusing the system approach and programmed learn-ing in the course curriculum. Portions of thisdocument not fully legible.

MEASURING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SALESTRAINING. Gillam, A. In Marketing World,p. 14-17. May, 1970.

There is a need to look at sales trainingafresh, to re-examine the objectives. Simple

yardsticks for measuring salesmen performanceare: number of calls per day; number of ordersper day; percentage of orders to calls. Theseapply only to comparatively simple sales situa-tions. A more thorough and complex investiga-tion would: define responsibilities and job speci-fications of the sales organization; examine themin relation to the company's sales objectives;examine records and controls; see how sales-men's reports and orders are handled in the salesoffice; establish true objectives; and record cur-rent performance levels of salesmen. The extentto which results can be measured will dependvery much on the nature of the particular salesoperations; but some attempt should be made toput a finite measure on training. Industrial train-ing boards have given a big boost to salesmantraining, and new techniques built around the com-pany's specific sales policy are being developed.However, before an Industrial Training Board willpart with its money, it will have tc be persuadedthat sales training really works.

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CONTROL OF THE TRAINING FUNCTION INTHE ENGINEERING INDUSTRY. Baker, H. A.In Training. Officer; v6 nl, p. 14-17. Jan. 1970.

Levy and grant provisions under the Engi-neering Industry Training Board in Great Britainare discussed as a basis for procedures in analyz-ing and reporting on training costs and benefits.

COST CONTROL OF TRAININGDOES IT MAKESENSE? Long ley, James. In Industrial TraininInternational v4 nil, p. 471-474. Nov. 1969.

THE TRAINING FUNCTION: OVERHEAD ORPROFIT? Livingston, Henry S. In Training andDevelopment Journal; v24 n8, p.18-24. Aug. 1970.

PLANNING INDUSTRIAL TRAINING. Evans,Eric; and Others. 46 13. Nov. 1968. NationalInstitute of Adult Education (England) London.Available from National Instimte of Adult Educa-tion, 35 Queen Anne St., London W. 1, England(10s 6d).

Under the pressure of economic conditionsand the stimulus of the Industrial Training Act,industrial and commercial firms in Great Britainare acting more and more in the belief that train-ing is inseparable from the mainstream of theiractivities. This pamphlet is concerned with issuesof practical importance in this context: the rela-tive importance of training directed to differentlevels of skill; prediction of likely performance asa basis for selection of trainees; the role oftraining officers in higher decision making; andtechniques for evaluating the return on trainingexpenditures. Included are chapter references,an interview form, a training system outline,cost effectiveness curves, and statistical data onlabor force skills, occupational and employmenttrends, recruitment and training expenditures,and course results from two experimental pre-apprentice programs.

COST-BENEFIT ASPECTS OF MANPOWER RE-TRAINING. MANPOWER PAPERS NO. 2. 42 p.1970. Great Britain. Dept. of Employment andProductivity, London (England). Available fromHer Majesty's Stationery Office, London, England.(4s 6d).

This study brings together the extensiveliterature on the subject and discusses the needfor, and advantages of, retraining; the provisionsfor retraining made in the United States andSweden; and possible approaches to cost-benefitanalysis of retraining. For the individual, man-power retraining is well worthwhile, since it leadsto considerable gains in employment and income.FOr the government and the economy, the studiesrevealed that investment in manpower retrainingis even more worthwhile, although the exact mag-nitude of the benefit-cost ratios is difficult to

estimate because of the existence of externalities.ML _Tower retraining can help alleviate resourcebottlenecks if directed toward areas of skill short-age. This will not only help in the fight againstinflation; it will also facilitate a more generalexpansion of the economy. In a tight market,those who remain unemployed will increasinglyrepresent the "hard-core" unemployed. Theobject of the program should be to increase theiremployability so that they can be reabsorbedinto the system. In a slack labor market, jobvacaneies can still be filled, especially if retrain-ing courses are geared to the needs of individualemployers. However, it is in a depressedmarketthat large-scale preparations can be made forfuture expansion. Further research is requiredto compare the benefit-cost ratios of institutionaltraining with those of on-the-job training.

TECHNICAL PROGRESS AND TECHNICALSCHOOLS. Pejovich, Svetozar. In Review ofSocial Ecorn ; v26 nl, p. 40-49. Mar. 1968.

Cost effectiveness analysis of the p )visionof training or retraining for those whose jobstability is threatened by technical progress maysuggest the superiority of specifically orientedon-the-job training to more generally orientedtechnical school training, contrary to first im-pression. The possibility is suggested that train-ing in technical schools may provide the traineewith a higher income, but that on-the-job trainingmay provide the trainee with greater assuranceagainst cyclical unemployment. If this is true,then government investment in training programsshould not be based on the assumption that thetrainees would prefer higher income to the less-ened likelihood of unemployment. Investment inresearch to arrive at a better theoretical under-standing of which choice the affected individualswould make is better merited than investment intrial-and-error retraining programs.

MANPOWER REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, IN-CLUDING A REPORT ON MANPOWER REQUIRE-MENTS, RESOURCES, UTILIZATION, ANDTRAINING. STATISTICS ON MANPOWER. A

SUPPLEMENT TO THE MANPOWER REPORTOF THE PRESIDENT (March 1961). 372p. Jan.1969. U.S. Dept. of Labor, Washington, D.C.ED 032 392, EDRS PRICE MF 650, HC availablefrom U.S. Government Printing Office, (L .1.42/ 2-2:969, $1*00; L.1.42/2:969, $2.00).

The seventh annual manpower report is pre7sented in three parts: The Employment Record,Manpower Policy and Programs, and ManpowerResearch and Experimentation. Discussion ofthe employment record addresses employment de-velopments and their economic background, pat-_terns of employment growth, unemployment andunderemployment, developments in the labor

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force, and productivity. Sub-divisions of the sec-tion on manpower policies and programs includemanpower development .dirough the schools, en-listing private industry cooperation, and meetingindividual needs. The focus of manpower re-search was on manpower requirements and re-sources, joblessness, occupational training, jobmarket processes, and equal employment Oppor-tunity. Experimental and demonstration programsare discussed relative to program accom, Ash-ments, impact on legislation, and inter-agencycooperation. A cost-effectiveness analysis ofmanpower programs, an evaluation of manpowerprograms, and statistical tables on the laborforce, employment, unemployment and trainingare appended.

RETRAINING THE UNEMPLOYED. Somers,Gerald G., ed. 350 p. 1968. Available fromUniversity of Wisconsin Press, Box 1379, Madi-son, Wisconsin 53701 ($10.00).

Case histories evaluate the effectiveness ofrecent and current retraining programs for un-employed workers under Federal, state, muni-cipal, and union-management auspices, judgingthem by their success in placing workers in use-ful employment in distressed economic areas.Data on various aspects of retraining programsunder a wide variety of circul_ stances have beenassembled, and retrainees are compared withsuch control groups as rejected applicants, train-ees who dropped out before completing theircourses, and unemployed workers who did notapply for retraining. Through cost benefit analy-ses and other evaluation of specific p- ograms inWest Virginia, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Mich-igan, Tennessee, and southern Illinois, and thecities of Chicago, Fort Worth, and Omaha, wheresuch factors as the personal characteristics oftrainees, the labor market, institutional place-ment, and procedural arrangements varied widely,significant conclusions have been drawn as to theeconomic and other benefits of retraining pro-grams in general. The document includes chapterreferences, appendixes, and 114 tables and figures.

LEVY AND GRANT SCHEMES: THEIR CONTRI-BUTION TO THE ACHIEVEMENT OF THE IN-DUSTRIAL TRAINING ACT. Dawson, Peter. InIndustrial _TraipLig International; v3 n10, p. 471-3. Oct. 1968.

There is growing questioning of the contribu-tion of levy and grant schemes to the achieve-ment of the aims of the Industrial Training Actof Great Britain to enable decisions on the scaleof training as related to economic needs and tech-nological developments, to improve tbe overallquality of training, and to spread the cost morefairly. A simpler and cheaper approach wouldbe for boards to make grants for all employees

who left firms and who had attended approvedtraining during the 12 months before they leftand for levies to fall on firms who were recruit-ing trained manpower and deriving the benefitfrom other firms' training efforts.

EXPERIENCE ON-THE-JOB AND FORMALTR AINING AS ALTERNATIVE MEANS OF SKILLACQUISITION: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY. Maton,J. In international Labour Review; vlOO n3, p.239-25. Sep. 1969.

On the results of a survey carried out amongten undertakings in Belgium and six in Argentinawith a sample of 200 to 300 skilled workers, mid-dle-level technicians and assistant engineers, acomparative study was made of the time require-ments for various combinations of trainingformal training and on-the-job experience. Theprimary school graduate has the choice betweenzero and six years of technical secondary educa-tion. Each additional year of such training willexempt him from a period of experience on thejob. In this way, the possible combinations neces-sary to become a tool and die-maker an be de-termined; these combinations can be representedby curves of possible choices. Using the resultsof the survey, scatter diagrams of the combina-tions were plotted for each category of worker.Using regression analysis, representative em-pirical curves and possible training combinationswere determined. The analysis of these curvesleads to a set of training equivalencies (in yearsset out in tabular form. It was found that, if thecosts and loss of practical experience while under-going formal training are taken into account, itcan be stated that in conditions favorable to skilldiffusion, selected workers may become highlyskilled through practical experience equally wellas through formal training. The introduction ofthe senior cycle of secondary education shiftsthe training to the school and its financing to thegovernment from industry.

TRAINING FOR RESULTS: A SYSTEMS AP-PROACH TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HUMANRESOURCES IN INDUSTRY. Warren, MalcolmW. 249 p. 1969. Available from Addison-WesleyPublishing Company, Inc., Reading, Massachu-setts 01867.

Using the systems approach, this book ex-, s training in industry as an organization

tool for developing human resources, and stressestraining results and return on investment ratherthan training programs as such. It is intended asa guide for general managers, personnel and in.-dustrial relations directors, and training direc-tors on how training functions, how and when itis cost effective, how to evaluate it, and how itshould be structured within the mass production,sales, supervisory, administrative, and technical

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aining fields. Included a e sections on costestimating and evaluating training in terms ofobjectives and results. Training systems ele-ments (research, analysis, development, opera-tions, evaluation) are also explained, togetherwith such other aspects as instructional design,feedback, financial support for employee self-improvement, and the organization and staffingof the training function. An index, bibliography,and 19 tables and figures are also inclurl(?d.

CAN WE EVALUATE TRAINING EXPENDI-TURES? Barrett, James E. In Trai 'y in Busi-ness and Industr ; v7 ni, p. 40-43. Jan. 1970.

Although accurate measurement of trainingeffectiveness is expensive and time consuming,

it is possible. Many formal measurements oftraining results and a few formal measurementsof training value have been created.

PROFIT FROM TRAINING. Hennessy, David E.In Trainin in Business and Industry, v6n2. Feb.1969.

Training efforts in business corporationsoften never emerge from the concept stag be-cause of the failure of training directors to speakthe language of upper management: dollars andcents. A method of analyzing and presenting suchtraining in terms of increasing corporate analyz-ing and presenting sucn training in terms of in-creasing corporate profits by reducing personneldeficiencies is elucidated and involves the follow-ing steps: (1) determine where personnel defi-ciencies exist which are contributing to cash out-flow and how much money could be saved if thedeficiencies were 100% eliminated; (2) determiithe training program effectiveness in terms ofpercentage of such and dollar equivalent, and theallowable training program cost; (3) determinethe actual training program development cost

and the ex_ ected effectiveness level; (4) preparea cash-flow sheet and diagram before making thebudget program; ($) after project approval, de-velop and evaluate pilot prograins in the fieldbefore proceeding to implement a full scaLe pro-gram,

ACCOUNTING FOR PERSONNEL TRAINING ANDDEVELOPMENT COSTS. Douthout, John. in

Training and Develo ment Jo rn_al; v24n6, p.2-6.June 1970.

Conventional accounting practices tend topenalize managers who invest in human resourcedevelopment. Five tables and figures. Fourreferences.

TEACHING FUTURE SALES MANAGERS HOWTO MANAGE: A METHOD FOR TEACHINGSALES ORGANIZING, PLANNING, AND CON-TROLLING. Dies, Robert P. In Trg_i_lir±Develo ment Journal; v23 nl, p. 24-6. Jan.19C9.

Educational techniques were developed tohelp line executives train first-line supervisorsin modern sales management theory and practice.A first attempt at critique and feedback resultedin the need for planning a mor, basic program:theory, concept clarification, practical applica-tion, and evaluation. Training specialists con-ducted group sessions on theory and presented ateam test of sales management. Regional manag-ers led the following session on test correctionand practical application of concepts. During theinterval between training sessions the men appliedlearnings to their own work andpreparedpresen-tations of their results. The next training sessionrevealed excellent analysis of zones sales results,confident and enthusiastic trainees, and develop-ment of individual sales planning, organizing and

controlling programs.

VII. NOTE ON AVAILABILITY

Many documents listed in this bibliographyare available in microfiche (MF) and hard copy(HC) reproductions from the ERIC DocumentReproduction Service. (Microfiche is a reprocidc-tion on a 4x6 inch sheet of film with up to 70images, each representing a page of the originaldocument. The titles are eye-readable, but astandard microfiche reader is require:1 to en-large the images for reading purposes.)

Only those documents identified with an "ED"number may be ordered from EDRS. All otherdocuments must be obtained from their originalsources, or from other agencies making themavailable as noted in the citations.

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In ordering from EDRS the following infor-mation should be furnished:

The "ED" number (title need not be given);The type of reproduction desired micro-

fiche or hard copy;The number of copies being ordered.

Payment must accompany orders totalling lessthan $10.Send to:

ERIC Document ReP.O. Drawer 0Bethesda, Marylan

34

ERIC Clearinghouseroduction Service

2001DEC 1 1971

on Adult Education