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Iozzi, Louis A.; And Others-Perspectives on Transixrtation. Teacher's Guide.Preparing for Tomorrow's World.Rutgers, The State Univ., New Brunswick, N.J. Centerfor Coastal and Environmental Studies.New Jersey State Dept. of Education, Trenton.8074p.; For related documents, see SE 041564-585. A.complete catalog of the multi-media packages makingup this program is contained in SE 041 585.SOPRIS WEST, Inc., 1120 Delaware Ave., Longmont, CO".80501 (Complete multi-media module, including studentmaterials, $87; replacement student worksheets,$7).Guides - Classroom Use - Guides (For Teachers) (052)

MF01 Plus Postage. PC Not Available from EDRS.*Air Transportation; Critical Thinking; DecisionMaking; Environmental Education; *Futures (ofSociety); Interdisciplinary Approach; Junior HighSchools; Learning Activities; Moral Development;*Moral Issues; *Problem Solving; Role Playing;Scienctl Educatlon; Secondary School Science; SocialStudies; Technology; *Transportation; *VehicularTraffic

IDENTIFIERS Dilemma Discussion Approach; Preparing for TomorrowsWorld Program; *Science and Society

ABSTRACT"Perspectives on Transportation" is one of the

"Preparing for Tomorrow's World" (PTW) program modules. PTW is aninterdisciplinary, future-oriented program which incorporatesinformation from the sciences and sotial sciences and addressessocietal concerns which interface science/technology/society. Theprogram promotes responsible-citizenry with increased abilities incritical thinking, problem-solving, social/ethical reasoning, anddecision-making. This module examines land, sea, and airtransportation and also briefly'cohsiders future prosppcts. Providedin the teaching guide are discussions Of the socio7scientificreasoning.model (theoretical basis of PTW), purpose of the module,strategies employed (focusing on the dilemma/debate discussiontechnique), module structure and objectives, and its use in theschool curriculum. Also provided are a suggested teaching schedule,guidelines for conducting dilemma discussions (including basic stepsin the process), a chart indicating moral issues (as defined byKohlberg) contained in the dilemmas presented in the studentmaterial, suggested teaching strategies4for the filmstrip used tointroduce the mOdule and foractivities related to each form oftransportation, bibliography, and appendices containing teacherbackground information. The module may be used as a separate unit ofstudy, as a mini-course, or incorporated into such subject areas associal science, language arts, or icience. (JN)

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New Jersey State`Department of Education Propelling for Tomorrow's WorldAn Intsrdisclpelnary Curriculum Program

Fred G. Burke Coastal Decisions: Difficult ChoicesCommissioner of Education Energy: Decision's for Today and TomorroW

Future Scenarios in COmmunications

Joseph L. Picogna , Space Encounters

Director of Title IVTechnology and Changing LifeStylesFood: A NecessarY'Reeouroe

S-arah Banks PerspectiOes on Transportation ,

Consultant. Division of School Programs Future New Jersey:,Public Issues and

1. Pethe

Malay of Lifeople and Environmental Changes

-

, EnvironMental Dilemlnak Critical Decisions-for, Society

Of Animals:Nature and HumansBeacon City: An Urban Land-UseSimulation

I Dilemmas in Bioethics. Technology and Society: A Futuristic

Perspective -..,

S.

Copyrightti 1980 by Highland Park Board of EducationHighland Park, New Jersey

. 4

Copyright will be claimed only during the period offurther development unless copyright of finalbaterial isauthorized by the New Jersey Department of Education.

The materials preSented herein were prepared pursuant to a grant from the New Jersey State Department of Education under provisions of TitleIV-C of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (1965), as amended. However, the opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect theposition or policy of the New Jersey Department of Education or the U.S. OffiCe of Education,

o

PREPARING POR TOMORROW'S WORLD

Perspectives on Transpohation

Teacher's Guide

Developed and Prepared byLouis A. lozzieDirector

Janey M.Y. Cheu, Associate DirectorPeter Bastardo, Curriculum Specialist

Nancy Brzezinski, Administrative AssistantIllustrations by Cathleen lozzi

iristitute for Science, Technology and Social Science EducationThe Center for Coastal and Environmental StudiesRutgers The State University of New JerseyDoolittle HallNew Brunswick, New Jersey 08903

4.

Sincere a ppreua tom s l..s.pr,ssed Ui the ;s1, houl systems that assisted thc piujei.t and scrstai as field test centers. We especially thank thccallossingeachers andtheir students who lidd tested the prelimina n drafts ol this program. and also those teachers and students wDo set sed ascontrol classes:Their ,nthusiasm,cooperanon and thoughtful entioues arc integral components in the successful development of these materials.

Asbury Park DistrictAsbury Park High School

Dolores Lynch. Joseph Manno. Thomas Sobieswyk

Burlingtob City DistrictBurlington Citv Ifigh School

David Burc hell. James Franchino

Dumont DistrictDumont High School

° Raymond Polomski

East Brunswick Township DistrictWarmdorfer Elementary School

Tracy Shisler

Franklin Township District&impson G. Smith intermediate School

Robert Brobst. Chairperson. Science Dept.. Mel Hill. Charles Korla.Victor laity, Steven Michdovit7, Science Coordinator.

Petscasage,1heresa Thorsen. Control Carol Guarino

Galloway Township DistrictArthur Rtom Elementary School

Stephen Bent. Stanley Cwiklinski

Hamilton Thwnship DisirictHamilton act - Steinen Mgh School

Mlen Da km. Ronald DiGiuseppe. Thomas Ebeling. Chairperson.Science Dept.. Paul Fessein. William Kester. Rilla Lee Kramer,Lester Gibbs. Kenneth Sullisan. COntrol Joseph DePugho.Elmo Kirkland

Hillsborough Township DistrictHillshorough School

Jane Voss

Irvington DistrictUnion Avenue Elementary School

Louise Donnelly. Adele Ilueston, John

I.ong Branch DistrictLong Branch Mgh School

Joseph Anastasia

Long Bram!: Junior Mgh SchoolRobert Frost, Florence Kessler

Middletown Township DistrictMiddletown High School -

William Harding. Patricia Larkin

Milltown DistrictParAview Elementary School

Judy Temkin

Montgomery Township DistrictMontgomery High School

Thomas Smith

Montville Township DistrictMontville High School

Joseph McKeon

Morils Hills Regional DistrictMorris Knolls High School

Cathleen Anderson. Priscilla Arnheiter.Science Coordinator. Barry Lehman.

41 Morris Hills High SchoolRalph Panei, Edward Spencer. Marilyn

Ignacio. Science Coordinator

George Hrobuchak,Raymond Tarchak

Ten ncy

North Arlington DistrictNorth Arlington High &Iwo!

John Bennett

Oakland DistrictIndian Ifills High School

Lawrence Insley

Old Bridge Township DistrictCedar Ridge Mgh School

Edna Hudson. Trudy lwanski. James Smiles. Control Raymond Davis

Princeton Regional DistrictJohn IVitherspoon Middle School

James Messcrsmith

South Brunswick Township DistrictCrossroads Middle School

Jean Dorgan. Director of Instructional Deselopment

South Brunswick High SchoolR. Brian Biemuller. Robert Chopick. Chairperson. Science Dept..

'ferry Farindla, William Gray. Robert Johnson. Virginia Markham.Control George Blackburn. Karen Kora rski

Spotswood DistrictSpotswood High School

Roberta Baker. Ernest Beckley. Control Karen Boyle

Toms River Regional District7bmi River intermediate - East Ithddle School

Terry Reagan

Union Township DktrictBurnet Junioriligh School

Ralph Amato. Jack Roland, Science Coordinator. Robert Wear.C.ontrol-Patricia Abrahasnson. Thomas D'Agostino

Unipn Senior High SchoolPatricia Mueller

Washington Township DistrictLong Valley Middle School

Francis Ilobbie. District Curriculum Coordinator, Robert Joyce.Kenneth Kopperl. John Simko. Control Diane Bmiman.Susan Chadwick, Vincent Donlon:ski. Carol Farrell. Philip Kinney,Richard Klett. Anthony Martin. Judith Novack. David Weidemoyer.Louis Zarrello

Woodbridge Township DistrictJohn P. Kennedy Memorial High

Crystal Lingcnfelter

NONPUBLIC SCHOOLS

Chelsea School, Long BranchThomas Cronin

Red Bank Catholic High School, Red' BankDrew Arcomano, Stese Donato,-StcveJ.ohnson. Gene Lueiani,

St. Mary Wendelin. Control George Eines:Kathleen Walsh

St. Marys High School, Perth AmboyRussell Simon

St. Peten High School. New BrunswickSr. Joseph Marie McManus. S.C.

St. Pius X Regional High School. PiscalawqBr. Kevin Cunniff, Barbara Goodman, James Duris

St. Thomas Aquinas Hi,gh School. EdisonBetsy Piesen

ACKNOWLEDA projeu 01 this broad storm refleus ihi. ontributions of man) indis duals Miland support. Our deepest appreciation and special thanks are extended to:

Highland Park Public SchoolsHoard of EducationDr. James Sgambettera, SuperintendentDr. Ethnrd Leppert. Assistant SuperintendentMr. William Donohue. Assistant Principal.

Highland Park High School

Center for Coastal andEmironmental Studies, Rutgers University

Dr. Norbert P. Psuty. DirectorDr. Wand G. Merrill. ProfessorDr.lCarl Nordstrom. Assistant ProfessorDr. Carol Litchfield. Associate Professor

(presently E. I. DuPont de Nemours & Co.)Ms. Janice Limb. Director, Cartography Lab

Cook College - Rutgers UniversityDr. Arthur W. Edwards. Chairman. Education DepartmentDr. William G. Smith. Assistant ProfessorMs. Marya lice Annum Secretary

Department of Radiation Science, 'Rutgers UniversityDr. Francis Haughey. Professor

CEMENTS \o ha 4: shaied usith as thcii piofesionalxpertise...reatac insights. isdom

Graduate School of cation - Rutgers UniversityDr. George J. Pallrand. rofessorDr. Michael Piburn. Ass \ 'ate Professor

New Jersey Department of Edu lionMs. Sarah BanksDr. Ronald LesherDr. Joseph Picogna

New Jersey Department of Education -Middlesex County Office

Dr. Rita J: Carney. SuperintendentSr. Therese Alma. Coordinator. Private SchooMs. Jean Sadenwater. Coordinator

New Jersey Department of EnergyMr. Bruce Hoff, OCS CoordinatorMr. Robert Golden. Energy Analyst

Stanley Cesaro AssociatesStanley Cesaro. President

Peter Bastardo. Curriculum SpecialistEliiabeth Public SchoolsElimbeth. N.J.

(

I.

PREFACE

We live in an exutmg. rapidly changing. and challenging world a world highly. dependent upon science and techno4)gy. Ourworld is changing No rapidly ,that we sometimes fail tu recognize that much of w hat we today take for granted as c6mmon.everyday occurrences existed only in the imaginations ul people just a few short years agu. Advances in scknce and technologyhave brought many dreams to Lrutwn. Long beture today's school children become Neni or citizens. much of today's "sciencefictiun wilL in fact. become reality. Recall just a few accomphshments hich not long ago were iewed as idle dreams.

Nett biomedu mistimes have made it possible to white ileleitive hearts. Aidnos and other orgam.

The first air flight at hun Han A lastd onit a Jot setonds. Nutt. a liuk oter half a tentkt later spate ship.s travelthousands of miles an hour to explore disitant planets.

Autlear tethnologi imerest aft% shori.t ears ago betausi of as destrutti i tpoltnh4a! timid prot idt hwnanAindalniost limitless suppliev of energy for peace-time needs.

Cumpwer te( hnolok has made u pos.wbk iu soh t tn seconds problems tthith unll a de«Ide ago it oidil require martshuman lifetinws,

St tem e and let limilog hat, brought us to tht brinA (il «aural* ii earlier, carthqualst's and other tunural phowmena.

Moreover. the changes w Inch we have been experiencing and to w hich we have belome accustomed arc occurring at anincreasingly rapid rate. Changes. most futurists forecast wdl continue and. in fact. even accelerate GIs moc into the 21stCentury and bey ond. But. as Barry Commoner has stated. "There is no such thing as a free lunch."Theseireat advances will notbe achieved without a high price. We are now beginning to experience the adverse effects of our great achievements.

Me orld:c natural resources are being rapidly depleted.

Our planet's water and air an, no longer pure and clean.

'Thousands of plant and animal species are threatened with exrinction.

Nearly half the world's population sqlkrs from malnutrition.W Ink science and technology have go en us tremendous power. %Nc arc also confronted w it h in icsonic responsibility. to use

thc power and tbIit w iscly. to make eq wta bk decision t mdeoffs, and to make alid and just choices when there is no absolute

"right" alternative. Whether we have used our new powers wisely is highly questionable.Ioday's outh w ill soon become society's deusion- makers. Will the) be capable of improv ing upon the decision-making of

the past? Will they possess the skills and abilities to make effective, equitable. long-range decisions to create o better world?

To the student:

his module has been prepared to help you the student and future decision maker function more effecthely in a rapidlychanging world. Other modulcs in the Preparing Jur ThinorrottS World program fo(uh on additional issues of eurrentedfuture importance.To the teacher:

t Is our belief that this moduk and indeed the entire Preparing fur Thmorrott's ROM! program %%ill help ou the teacher

prepare the I uture decision-maker to deal effect IN el) 1%. ith iss lies and challenges at the interfaces of s.cience, technology, society,

It IN our belief that the contents and activ ities w this program %%ill begin to plepare today's youth to Ike life to the fullest, inbalance with Earth's resources and environmental limits, and to meet the challenges of tomormw's world.

Louis A. lozzi. Ed. D.Cook CollegeRutgers-The State University of New Jersey

^

CONTENTS

PageINTRODUCTION 1

THE THEORETICAL BASIS OF PREPARING FOR TOMORROW'S WORLD:THE SOCIO-SCIENTIFIC REASONING MODEL

OVERVIEW OF PERSPECTIVES ON TRANSPORTATION 8Purpose

',Strategy8

8Perspectives on Transportation in the School Curriculum 8

Objectives of the Module 9Components of Perspectives on Transportation 9

Suggested Teaching Schedule 11

CONDUCTING DILEMMA DISCUSSIONS IN THE CLASSROOM 12

Basic Steps in the Process 1 12

Some General Guidelines for Dilemma Discussion 15

SUGGESTED TEACHING STRATEGIES 17

Introduction: Filmstrip..

17Filmstrip Script 17,

SECTION I: LAND TRANSPORTATION 21

SECTION II: WATELTRANSPORTATION i 31

SECTION III: AIR TRANSPORTATIOI( 33

SECTION IV: FUTURE PERSPECTIVES 41

BIBLIOGRAPHY 44

APPENDIX 46

INTRODUCTION

Transportation today reflects some of our most exciting advances in science and technology ofthe past hundred years. What Jules Verne wrote as science fiction in the 1800's afe now realities

we can jet across continents in a few short hours, stay submerged in the depths of the oceanfor weeks, or explore outer revhes of space. With developments in transporation our world haschanged in many ways. Our man-made landscape has been shaped by our various forms oftransportation. Our very lifestyles can be said to be a product of our mobility moving peopleand goods quickly, efficiently and economically. From a once rural population, we are nowessentially an urban population. Modern travel has opened for us new horizons of which ourgrandparents never dreamed.

Yet with these new developments have come a new and differen: set of issues. Traffic acci-dents have become a major cause of death. Automobile exhaust fumes are the major contribu-tors of air pollution. The quality of our environment is threatened by oil spills; waste fromchemicals that are used in the manufacture of our vehicles and keep them running; road de-icersalts that contaminate farmlands and water supplies; and off-road vehicles that trample fragileplant and animal communities, to cite a few. While there is nO turning back to the horse.andbuggy, there is a need to examine the consequences of our modern mobility and try to avertserious dislocations in the future.

The issues2surrounding transportation are many. Just a brief scan, of a daily newspaper revealsa plethora of news items related to transportation concerns, problems and controversies. Theseissues impact upon our lives at all levels and pose difficult to resolve dilemmas. That there is aneed for wise and responsible decision making and creative and effective problem solving isclearly evident.

Perspectives on Transportation is intended to create an awareness about some of the questionsand concerns regarding transportation now and in the future. Helping students develop decisionmaking skills is an integral component because they will be our future decision makers living inan increasingly complex world. The materials and activities have been selected to challen&students to more critically analyze and evaluate the implications and consequences of differentdecisions on transportation. They will discover that decisions are value laden and that themoral, ethical elements are inextricably intertwined in all aspects of human affairs. These valueconsiderations produce conflict. By addressing some of these conflicts, it is hoped that studentswill begin to question their own ideas and ideas of others and gain new insights into our trans-portation needs and concerns.

4 1

The Theoretical Basis of Preparing for Tomorrow's World.

The Socio-Scientific Reasoning ModelAs pointed out in the Introduetton to Otis guide. deselop-ments tn scienec and technology a,-a aot without societal

issues and problems. New developments and applications ss

inevitably bring about new issues as well as increase theircomplexity. Li nhke scientific problems. socio-scientific prob-lems often have no "correct" answer because they inSolvehuman choices and decisions. Such choices and decisions are

value ladened. I he particular decisions made today andtomorrow will determine the course of the future. Hence. we

are laced a ith the profound challenge to makc Just and w ise

decisions in order to create a better future world. To helpprepare our students to become more effectise problemsolvers and decision makers, education will need to focus on

the simultaneous development of the following skills.

Ability to deal with problems containing multipleinteracting variables

Decision makinithat incorporates a w ider social per

spectis C

C ritical thinking in the es a luanon ofconsequences and

implications

Components of theSocio-Scientific Reasoning Model

In response to the above concirn and recogm/ing the imporlance of. this mode of deselopment. we des eloped the "socio-

soentilic reasoning" model to serse as tl framework in theproduction ol our curriculum materials. This model com-bines our own philosophy. ideas and research ssith the theo-

ries and philosophies of Piaget. Dewey, Kohlberg and Sel-

man, Basic to these theories is the idea of education as helping

mdisidual grow bothmtellectually and morally. Therefore.this sociti'scientdic reasoning model approaches educationfrom a developmental perspectise. This model incorporatesthe ideas of stage des elopmcnt f tom the perspective of cogni-

hon. moral, ethical reasoning and social role taking. The

basic tenets of these theories arc briefly summarved below

Logical Reasoning

Jean Piaget. the noted Swiss psychologist. has made impor-tant contributions in the area of cognitive development which

are mtinent to our efforts' Nagel views the development

of logical reasoning as progression through the series ofstepwise stages indicated in lible I (sensori-motor preopera-tional, concrete operational and formal operational) At eachsuccessive stage the logical reasoning ability of individualstakes on a broader perspective and incorporates the ability todeal with greater numbers di nteracting variables of increas-

ing intellectual complexity. Each stage of thinking buildsupon the previous one. but takes on a new structural formGrowth in cognition, it seems. can be facilitated and nurtured

through appropriate educational experiences.In explaining growth in logical reasoning capability. Piaget

refers to the proc.sses of assimilation, accommodation, andequilibration. Assimilation occurs when the child incor-porates new ideas and situations into his or her existingthought st ructures. On the other hand, the child also encoun-

2

ters objects and events that do not lit into his or her existing

thouglu struct ures. I n these contradictory situations, the childhas essentially two options. he she must either enlargehis her existing structures or create a new category or struc-ture. Piaget defines this as the process of accommodation.

Intellectual growth. Piaget postulates. occurs when theindiv idual attempts to resolve the tension between the inter-active processes of assimilation and accommodation bydeveloping new, thoughts and responses that are more suit-able or adequate. Equilibrium is re-esta blished when thOught

struttures are altered, producing new accommodations'that'enable the indiv idual toassimilate the new situations. I ntellec-tual growth, then, occurs through internal self-regulationprocesses that lead to new, higher levels of equilibration.

Moral/Ethical Reasoning

While there are several Oproaches to values education, themore encompassing one is the cognitive developmental

approach offered by Lawrence'Kohlberg.' 4. Kohlberg's ideasare derived from the philosophic positions of Dewey andand Piaget. The emphasis here is to help individuals growintellect ually and morally. This is. we feel, a more functionalapproach than arbitraryindoctrination of values as used in"character" or "socialintion" education or taking a "valuesrelativity" stance. typically employed in the more commonvalues clarification approach.

Kohlberg's moral ethical deselopment theory is an exten-

sion of Piaget's cognitise development theory. Similarly toPiaget. Kohlberg siews moral deeelopment from childhoodto adulthood as progression through a series of stages (Table

2), Each stage is characteriied by a v cry different way ofperceo ing and interpreting-one's experiences: At 'Kdlilbe;resStage 2, for example."right"and "w rong"are judged in termsof satisfy ing one's own needs and sometimes the needs ofothers if it is convenient to do so. Stage 3 type of reasoningcenters around maintenance of approval in one's own social

group. The orientation is towards conformity to group expec-tation. At the higher principled stages. ieasoning takes intoaccount concerns for the welfare of others in a broader

context. and includes concerns for human dignity, liberty,justice. and equalitythose very same principles upon which

our Constitution is based.Piaget, Kolhberg views development not as

mere accumulation of information, but changes in thinkingcapabilities the structures of thought processes. In thecourse of development, higher-lesel thought structures areattained and result in the extension of an individual's socialperspective and reasoning capa Nines. Applying higher levelsof thinking to problems results in problem solutions thathave greater consistency and are more generaliiable. SeeAppendix detailing the stages of development.

Social Role-Taking Stages

The research of Robert Selman indicates that social roletaking ability isa developed capacity which also progresses in

a series of stages from early childhood through adolescence

Role taking is viewed by Selman in terms of qualitath4

u

A

changes in the manner a child structures his, her understand-ing of the relatiomhip between the perspectives of self andothers.

Using the open-ended clinical method of inquiry first ap.plkd by Piaget and then later by Kohlberg. Selman hasidentified' and 'dined Stages 0 through 4 (age range isapproximately 3 years to 15+ years) These stages arc referred

to as. Ego-centric View point (Stage 0). Soda!" nformationalRole Taking (Stage 1). Self Reflection Role 'Liking (Stage 2).Mutua 1 Role 'faking (Stage 3). and Social and ConventionalSystem Role Taki ng(Stage 4). Descriptions of the role takingstages appear in Table 3. Each of Sehnan's role taking stagesrelates closely to and parallels Kohlberg's moral reasoningNtages.

Selman iews the social role taking stages as a link betweenPiaget's logical reasoning stages and Kohlberg's.moral reason-

ing stages. Just as Piaget's logical reasoning stages are neces-

sary but not sufficient for attaining the parallel moral reason-ing stages. a similarly 4cessary but not sufficient relationshipappears to exkt between the social role taking stages andparallel moral reasoning stages.

As Selman has pointed out. .the eluld's cognitive stageindicates his level or understanding or physical and logicalproblems. while his role taking stage indicates his level ofunderstand ing of the nat ure of social relations, and his moraljudgment stage indicates the manner in which he decides howto rcsol% soual onflik.ts bk.tw cen pi.opk with diffucat pointsof

;7-

CONCRETE

ETAGE

The Socio-Scientific Reasoning Model

Combining our own philosophy, ideas, and research with thetheories of Piaget. Kohlberg anAdman. thc socio-scientificreasoning model has been developed. Socio-scientific reason-

ing. as defined here, is the incorporation of the hy pothetico-deductive mode of problem 4olving with the social and moral,ethical concerns of decision rnaking. This model has served as

a guide in the development of educational materials to helpstudents advance to higher levels of thinking and reasoningcapabdifies. Moreover, it is highly flexible and readily adapt-able to other classroom activities.

The basic assumption of this model is that effective prob-km solving requires simultaneous development in the realmsof logical reasoning, social role taking. and moral, ethicalreasoning. Purely objective scientific thinking cannot be ap-plied in the resolution of most of the probable future conflictswithout regard to the impact of those decisions on humanneeds and human goals. A technologkal solution. for exam:.'ple. may be. after critical analysis. feasible and logicallyconsistent. From a societal perspective. hpwever,, one mustquestion whether or not it should be applied. How to bestprioriwe our needs and evaluate trade-offs with a concern forthe needs of future generations involves logical reasoningandcritical thinking, but now with an added dimension . . . asocial moral, ethical reasoning dimension.

Heim. the Soi.lo-Suentilk model consists of four interacting components (see Figure I); ( 1) logical reasoning develop-

TABLE 1

PIAGET'S STAGES OF COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT

FORMAL

STAGE

FORMAL LOGICAL OPERATIONSThinks in a hypothetical-deductive mannerConsiders all possible relationships

TRANSI4NAL - EARLY FORMAL OPERATIONSBegins to think more abstractlyAwareness of new possibilihes

CONCRETE OPERATIONAL (SUBSTAGE 2)Reasons only about concrete objectsApplies logic in a hmited way

PRE-OPERATIONAL - (SUBSTAGE 1)Can represent objects symbolically - uses language. imagesView of world only as he/she sees it - highly egocentric

SENSORIMOTOR STAGEAcquires cOncept that objects exist apart from selfCoordinates movement. habit

3

ment is based on the theories of Piaget. while (2) moral,

ethical reasoning relies strongly on Kohlberg's ideas. Selman's

research provides the basis for the third component. the socialrole taking aspects of our model. Since the content or infor-mation component of the problem (component four) willNary, sotoo will the concepts vary accordingly. For example.

in our applications of this model we have t.oncentrated on

n.sues at the interfaces ol science. technology. and sway. Of

4

course, problem issues could also deal with or focus on anyother topic one chooses to investigate

The content component also consists orthree interactingsubunits. These subunits science. technology, and society--

rely on each other for thcir very existence While each of Wesubunits is dependent upon the others, their indis idual undo--

1y ing value struct ures create a high potential for discord since

the concerns of one subunit oftim conflict with those of the

TABLE 2

KOHLBERG'S STAGES OF MORAL DEVELOPMENT

STAGE S SOCIAL CONTRACTEmphasis on democratic ethic, reaching social consciousnessRespect for self and other

STAGE 4' LAW AND ORDERDo your duty, set good exampleRespect authority and follow the rules

STAGE 3: CONFORMITYWhat is right is what others expect of meBe kind and considerate of others - good intentions

STAGE 2 BACK SCRATCHINGMhat's right is what's good for me

Eye for eye, tooth for tooth concept of justice

STAGE I OBEDIENCE AND PUNISHMENTRight is what authorities commandBe good and avoid punishment

TABLE 3

SELMAN'S ROLE-TAKING STAGES

STAGE 4. SOCIAL AND CONVENTIONAL SYSTEM ROLE TAKINGRealizes mutual perspective taking does not always lead tocomplete understandingEach self considers the shared point of view of thegeneralized other (social system)

STAGE I MUTUAL ROLE TAKINGRealizes self and other can consider each party's point of viewsimultaneously and mutuallyCan step outside dyad and view action from third person perspective

STAGE 2 SELF-REFLECTIVE ROLE TAKINGRelativistic belief that no person's perspective is absolutely validReflects on the.selts behavior as seen from other's point of view

STAGE 1. SOCIAL-INFORMATION ROLE TAKINGAware that self and others may have different social.perspectivesFocuses on one perspective, not on coordinating viewpoints of self and 'others

FIGURE 1

THE SOOIO-SCIENTIFIC REASONING MODEL

INORE/ASED COMPLEXITY

I FormalIOperations

Substage 3

ConveStages

Fri

a_

C.D

0of)

2w-JCO

a_

F-<

<

cr0

Preconvention I

ConcreteOperations

nal Substages 1&2

s

ROLE TAKING

DEVELOPMENT

13

-others. This paradox dependence and salt ultaneous conflkt

among the subunits-- presents a unique opportunity and con-

text for curriculum develope.., employing the Socio-ScientlfiCReasoning model to prepare educational materials.

Each component of this model 4s not seen as a totallyseparate and distinct entity. Rather. each of the four compo-nents interacts w ith and has an effect on all other t.omponents.Thus. logical reasoning has an effect cut, and in turnis affected

by, social role taking development. In a similar manner, social

role taking has an effect on, and is affected by. developmentsin the moral, ethical realm. Of course. logical reasoning andmoral ethical reasoning also interact. Each of these majorcomponentslogical reasoning. social role taking. and moral,ethical reasorung interact not only with each other but withthe fourth component. content or information.

Referring to Figure I again', the content cone is small at the

low end because at earlier stages of development the numberof concepts entertained are smaller and the concepts arcsimple in nature. Hence, as the cone broadens so too does thecomplexity of content or information mcluded. Individuals atstages of development intersecung the lower end of the cone

can deal with issues and concepts of a simpler form while, on

theother hand. indiv idua Is at the upper end with higher levelsof maturity have the capacity for dealing with more issues andissues of greater complexity. Dev elopment. then. is bothvertical and horizontal. vertical development is from lower tohigher stages. horizontal development relates to the "neces-sary but not sufficient" requirements which must be satisfiedas one moves from logical reaioning. through social roletaking, to moral reasoning capabilities.

Thus while each stage reflects a distinctly unique capabil-ity for problem solving in a science, technology, society con-text, we view development or progress as a continuouslyspiraling process. In this process. however, there are.leapsand

quiesence, and fixation at any stage is possible. Levels oflogical reasoning. moral reasoning, and role taking maturityalso seem to vary. we find, depending on the issues addressed.These apparent inconsistencies in reasoning even when deal-

ing with the same or similar mental and moral constructsseem to be related to the degree of emotionality. familiaritywith, interest in, and, or knowledge about the issues underconsideration7.

The goal then is 10 help cadi individual "spiral" upwardsthrough the Socao-Suentific Reasoning cone and sy nein o-nously achieve "more adequate" problem soh, ing capability."More adequate" as used here relers to the idea that whenapplied to problem solving. the higher stages of reasoningresult in solutionsthat are more encompassing and generaliz-able, they enable students to deal with greater complexity.

Application of the Socio-Scientific Reasoning Modelin the ClassroomThe Somo-Scientific Reason-Mg model therefore serves as the

basis for identifying the types of learning experience and thesophistication level of those experiences important to helpstudents develop. It recognizes that learning capabilitiesdiffer with ag,.. grade level, interest and karning needs.Implicit in te model and in,accord with Stage theory is theidea that at each stage theTis a characteristic form of think-

,

6

ing capability which determines how experiences and infor-mation are interpreted and acted upon

The main strategy underlying all of these activities is busedon Piaget's concept of equilibration It is only when disequi-

librium is created that active restructuring of thought takesplace. This active restructuring leads to growth in logicalreasoning. in social role taking. and in moral ethical reason-ing capabilities as well.

Restructuring of existing cognithe structures occurs wheninternal disequilibrium is felt by the indiv idual New expe-riences and inputs V, hich arc not readily comprehensible tothe individual challenge his her existing mode of thought byrevealing inadequacies or inconsistencies in that problemsolv ing strategy". Arrestmcnt at a given stage is partiallyexplained by the developmental theorists as the lack ofopportunities that create conflict or dissonance which placethe individual in a position where he she needs to assesshis, her particular mode of thinking. Perhaps. as-Clive Beckpoints out, the reason why people do not develop morally isbecause they have not had the opportunity to entertainalternatives their imaginations have 'not been exterided9.We. in addition, contend that the reason people do notadvance in logical reasoningcan also beattributed. to a largedegree. to a similar lack of opportunities.

We have identified some of the basic elements needed toprovide experiential opportunities that promote develop-ment of problem solvingaild decision making skills. A partiallisting includes providing opportunities for students to:

Encounter-a variety of viewpointsExperience higher level reasoning

Jake the perspective of othersExamine and clarify ones bwn ideasExamine the consequences and implications of one'sdecisions

Defend one's positionEvaluate possible alternativesConsider and recognize the role of the' self to societyReflect on one's own value system

Test own ideas and those of othersOne educational actMty which incorporates some 'Of these

elements is the classroom dilemma discussion, an activitymost commonly associated with Lawrence -Kohlberg and his

colleagues. We have. however. Modified and extended thisapproach to more systematically encompass critical analysisand evaluation of information and data. We have alsoemployed such other formats as role taking, simulations. andfutures forecasting and analysis methodblogies.

For example, reasoning at a particular stage is not a valuejudgment of whether an act is goodAir bad, but is the patternof the concepts entertained in judging the "ought" of rights.duties and obligations of human relationships. Younger child-ren at lower stages reason about duties in terms of reciprocalbenefits from the party "If you do mea faVor, I will do you afavor." Whereas in Orincipled reasoning, duty is what anindividual has become morally committed to do and is self-chosen. Higher itage reasoning is therefore the ability toapply value concerns (Kohlberg's major concerns include.selfwelfare, welfare of others, sense of duty'and of 'motives.,conscience, rules, punitive justice, role taking in a more

1 ei

internafind, complex, autonomoms, critical, consistent andgeneralized manner.

Effective discussion, however. ci,Innot take place,in avacuum. Needed also is an information base or context fromwhich students can begin to analyie and evaluate informa-tion. Wit1).information which they have extracted and syn-t heswed. aOitional ideas apd rational arguments can be doel-opal for discussion. For curriculum activities. we havecreated problem situations:in a variety of contexts which.according to scholars in a Nariety of fields, will be prominent

in the next quarter century and beyond10. This adds anotherpecspective to the dilemma problemthat which elicits scien-tific logical reasoning in addition to moral/ethical

reasoni --but in a futuristic context.These ser e as mechanisms for students to put some of the

ideas and jud Qents that have emanated from the discussioninto larger struct ural frameworks. They alsoprovide studentswith opportunities to project into the futu re, to think beyondtheir own immediate experiences, and to consider the impactof different decisions on future society.

Jean Pogo. Piaget s thcory. In I hornas I.itkunj (Ed.) Channn haen manual ql duld psychohigl. New York. John Wiley and Sons. 1970.

Hooard E. Gruber and, J.J, Voni:che Me essential Piageri New York. Ram Books. Inc., 1979.

' Laott. n ohlbcrg. Moral AldiXS and moralitatit..: the cognitise-doelopmental approach. In Thomas lackona ( Ed.) Mural development and behatiorthem research. and smug issues. New York: Holt. Rmehardt And Winst8n. 1976.

'John 6ibbs, L. kohlbo Lt. A (ok and B. mwichcr-Duban. Ihe dum.un arid deselopinnt of mural judgment. InJohn R. Me)er (Ed.)Reflet nuns un valuesedutatiom Waterloo. Ontairo. Canada, Wilfred Lawner Unhersity Nets. 1,976.

Robot Sclina.n. Social-cognuoCandcistanding. a pock to educational and clinical practicc. In Moms Lickona (Ed )1foralik, 'elupment and hehavtur.ilwon,reseanh. and %octal issues. New York: Holt. Rinehardt and Winston. 1976.

"Ihid, pg. 307lulus A. luM, hgaifinignerm. terhaiandtt i. !um, a1 rountngalnliii and( nwunmental ame.s. Ductoial Dissertation. Rutgcr, the State Unisersity of New

Jerse). 1976

'Ult.( I umlinson-kcascs and (lark B tscast.). I ht mcdiating rtik at ogmtwe doelopment to moral judgment 'Child Development. 1974.45. 291 298.

"Clue M. Beck. Ethns I oronto McGrau-Hill, 1972"Harold 6 Mitt ne Cam( ulum hange tonard the :At collar, Washington. D.0 National Education Association. 1977.

b.

Overview Of Perspectives On Transportation

Purpose

Diminishing petroleum supplies, increase in popu-lation, industrialization in lesser developed nations, airpollution, greater global interdependence all posecritical questions regarding future developments intransportation. Most obvious is the question "Can wecontinue to drive with impunity our private automo-bile?" Problems of fuel shortages, skyrocketing fuelcosts and pollution will bring about changes in our cur-rent lifestyles and mobility. It is, therefore, the pur-pose of this module to engage students to examinesome of the many issues related to transportation andhave them consider how these different problems im-pact upon their lives and on the lives of others. In mostcases, students will need to deal with the concept oftrade-offs. What are our needs and desires, and whatarracce ptable consequences?

The problet and controversies that we encountertoday, experts predict, will not abate in the future. Ourstudents, citizens of the future, will be confronted withthese problems, and more. The activities in this mod-ule hopefully, will help students anticipate futurechanges and recognize that problem solving and deci-sion making in modern society are complex processeswhere a multiplicity of factors interact. They must,therefore, become cognizant of the need to developtheir knowledge and reasoning abilities in order to be-come informed and wise decision-makers.

Strategy

In order to become aware and understand problems/issues, students need a knowledge base and must de-velop a sense of involvement in the controversy. Soci-etal questions, for the,most part, have no meaning orinterest for younger students because they do not seehow such questions relate tootheir lives now and par-ticularly in the future. Their concerns tend to revolvearound the very narrow confines of their immediateenvironment.

Hence, it is necessary to present opposing/alternative arguments and provide students opportuni-ties to challenge their .own ideas-and-ihe-ideas- ofothers. In this module background information is pro-vided through a series of short readings, commentarieSand student activities. Additional knowledge is devel-oped as students begin to think about and discuss thematerial in the several types of activities and decisionmaking opportunities. To involve students to activelyexamine issues and controversies, we have employedthe dilemma discussions which focus on and heightena given situation. The heightened situation of a di-lemma is intended to elicit a higher level of student tostudent interaction so that students can begin to ex-press their own ideas, testing them against the ideas of

8

others, Through active involvement with the issueideas will emerge that students can use to relate totheir own lives to develop,new awareness.

The dilemma debate!discussions, and simulationand role play exercises (variations of the dilemma for-mat) thus serve as the focal point of student activitY inthis module. Many of the dilemmas and simulationsare adapted from actual case histories, while others,although hypothetidal, reflect critical ehoices beingmade today or require resolution in the near future.This approach requires students to take an active rolein the dialogue, examining alternative positions andexperiencing value or ethical conflict. Taking a posi-tion and defending it offers new challenges to students.They must learn to hear the arguments and opinions ofothers as.well as examine the implications and conse-quences of their own stance. Also, the level-6f rele-vancy becomes elevated when students hear argu=ments from their peers rather than from adult authorityor the printed word. Although the discussion processmay seem to move more slowly than imparting infor-mation through lectures or readings, it places a per-sonal demand on the students to organize, coordinateand interrelate information and concepts. In this man-ner, they will begin to-understand the dynamic inter-relationship of issues and the .difficulty of decisionmaking.

Although the dilenimas involve individuals, we haveconstructed the different dilemmas to reflect decisionshaving effects at the personal, community, nationaland international levels. Hence, students can begin toexpand theirscope of thinking and consider impactsfrom a variety of perspectives. In view of Piaget'smodel that places secondary school students at thetransitional stage of formal development, many of thedilemmas consider social implications beyond one'sown socialsphere to those on a more global level. Theintention is to move students from their egocentric ori-entation to that which encompasses a broader world

The dilemmas as presented are simple in form butcan be further developed by the teacher with increas-ing complexity, depending on the intellectual and con-ceptual level of the students, as well as their interestand curiosity. The subject area or course in which thismodule is taught may determine ways in which manyof the concepts might be further developed such asconcepts from sociology, economics, ecology, govern-ment, philosophy, history, etc. Drawing relationshipsfrom what is learned in.the course will inevitably makestudents' learning more meaningful and effective.

Perspectives on Ihnsportation inthe School Curriculum

This module, designed for the secondary school level

,.. .

(grades 7 through 9), can serve to compleinent or sup-plethent couries in a number of subject areas: socialScienCe, language ails, science:etc. Classes in differ-ent subject areas will, of course, emphasize or developthe concepts/issues presented from somewhat differ-ent, perspectives. For example, ia social scienceclasses greater emphasis may be placed on howchanges in transportation affect lifestyle chfinges orcultural developments. In science classes, more -em-phasis may be placed on examining the feasibility ofalternative fuel sources or new types of engines. What-ever the case may be, the module is intended to pro-vide a structure to extend and interrelate concepts pre-sented in the courses. i

Since flexibility is inherent in its design, one can usethis module in a number of ways. The activities maybe presented sequentially in the order given and serveas a single unit of study. Alternatively, the activitiesmay be selectively interspersed in the teaching sched-ule where they best relate to ongoing classroom stud-ies. Thus, the module can provide another dimensionto the existing course or "stand alone" -as a minicourse.

The dilemmas canalso serve as a "springboard" forteachers to develop additional dilemmas for theirdaises. So often it is 'the case that many of the bestdilemmas are developed spontaneously from the mate-rials that are part of the\ ongoing coursework. Havingused these dilemmas, te chers can better understandthe intent and value ofd1emma discussions and beginto recognize other problematic situations that confront'society. The question of relevancy and meanidg can bebridged when specifiC information is related to its im-

.pact on our lives.

All important in the dilemma discussion strategy isto engage students in the consideration of problemsand new concerns that arise from applications of newtechnologies and use of resources. It is, in essence,applying information learned to concrete examplesand examining possible effects.

Objectives of the Module

TOIncreasethe-student-'s.kno..w.ledge of transpor-tation.issues.To increase the student's ability, to critically ana-lyze issues and conflicting viewpoints.To increase the ethical/moral reaSoning ability of

. the students.To increase the decision-making skills of students

, regarding transportation issues.To increase students ability to recognize futureproblems which might impact on society.

To help students recogniie the different aspectsof transportation and their effects on our dailylives.

To engage students to examine their own andother students' value considerations.To increase students' self-esteem and ability tocommunicate and function more effectively inclassroom discussions.To indrease students' ability to logically, and com-prehensively present arguments in support of aselected vie'wpoint.To help students understand alternative view-points and respect-opinions of others.

Components of Perspectives on liransportation

Student's GuideTeacher's GuideFilmstrip' and Audiotape CassetteStudent Handouts - 7

A

Perspectives on Ilrabsportation is comprised of threemajor sections, each examining a different form oftransportation land, sea add air. An introductoryfilmstrip provides a general overview of transportationand poses some questions that will be:addressed in themodule. Within each section are a variety of activitiesand dilemmas stories which lead students to explorevarious aspects of that form of transportation so-,cial, political, economic, etc. In most cases, each ac-tivity and dilemma is accompanied by backgroundreadings which highlight sortie of the critical issues,create problem awareness and provide ideas for dis-cussion and further study. Included after each dilemmais a series o probe questions which students should

and discuss when determining the course ofaction to be taken by the central role character. Thequestionralso-serve-to-help-encou i e and extend dis-cussions by bringing otit_additional aspects o theissue.

-

Underlyipg societal problems and controversies' aremoral/ethical questions. The dilemma Stories examinethese Each-dilenun tlat_iLis.L.raises two ormore moral issues. TableTidintifies the iisue-S-erriphatized iri each of the dilemmas. Become familiar withthe moral/ethical issues entertained in.the dilemmas sothat you can guide the students to address these issuesin their discussion. As previously mentioned,-wise andresponsible decision-making must take into accountthe moral and ethical implication of alternativeactions.

17,

Table 4

Issues Contained in Each Dilemma

Dilemma

Issues*

gctt ,

ii5-'=a

>,t6.o.

6.=0.....1.

gco

0 E

0t)0

F.*

0oo

v0

cn .......0. cn

'5: 5o6' v:

.,,...

s.

0E

1 On a Clear Day X

2 One Less for the Road X X X

i

3 How Safe ic Safe? X,

4 Fuel for Our CarsThe Synfuel Battle ,

5 Oil in the Sea:

X X,

6 Stranded at Sep

.'

7 Space Litter X X

*These basic moral issues as identified by Kohlberg cbmprise the underlying elements* of a onflict situation \

involving a moral decision-. Our dilemmas were constructed to incorporate two or more of these issues. Dilemmaresolution requires a choice or action to be made between conflicting issues. For instance, in a dilemma dealing

with the issue of governance and social justice, the questions surrounding the issue of governance include: I)Should one accept or reject the authority of the governing body? 2) What are the characteristics and responsibili:ties of good government? The social justice issue raises the questions: 1) Should one defend or violate thepolitical, social and economic rights of another person? 2) What are the bases of these tights?

4,;

CC

Suggested lIeuching,Schedule

Class Period Activity1 Showing of filmstrip and class discus-

sionReading 1*Discussion of Dilemma 1

3 Reading 2Discussion of Dilernma 2

4 Activity 1, Handout 1Sinail group discussion

5 Reading 3Discussion of Dilemma 3

6 Activity 2, Handout 27 Group presentations of Activity 2

findings8 Activity 3, Group meetings tO develop

a future car design9 Group presentations of ads.pr com-

mercials10 Reading 4

Discussion of Dilemma 411 (or omework Activity:4, Handout 3

as (Ignment)12 Analysis of survey results13

14

resultsPresentation and discussion of survey

ReadAg 5Acti4ly 5, Handout 4

15 Presentation of mass transit plans16 Reading, 6 or 7

Class discussion17 Discussion of Dilemma 518 Discussion of Dilemma 619 Reading 8

,Activity 8, Handout 5Preparation forSenate Hearing

20 Conduct Senate Hearing, Handout 621 Continuation of hearing22 Reading 9

Handout 723 Discussion of Dilemma 724 Activity 7, Scenario writing25 Presentation of scenarios

*Readings might be assigned for horneWork, thereby allowingmore class time for discussion.

19 Ii

Coniducting Dilemma Dis icussions In The ClassroomSince dilemma discussion may be a new classroom tech-

nique. its major characteristics. the basic guidelines, andsomc -helpful suggestions will be described. There are nohard, fast rules tor leading dile mma discussions. Most impor-

tant is that both teacher and st udents feel comfortable parti-cipating in the activ ity . The folknung guidelines are merelyrecommendations drawn from expedences of persons whohave conducted moral dilemma discussions in the classroom.These may or may not meet the entire requirements of yourparticular situation and needs. Adjustments andelianges maybe necessary so that the dilemmas and discussion formatcol respond to the intellectual level and interests of yourstudents.

Basic Steps in the Process

The live basitsteps in conducting a dilemma discussion asoutlined by Kohlberg and his associates are as follows:

Presentation of the dilemmaSelection of alternative positions

Smaltgroup discussionsClass discussion

Summary and closing a/discussionBackground Information- In our materials wc have

included an additional component, an information base, See

Diagram I. Schenut jar Dilemma Discussion. This back-ground information will provide students with at least a basicunderstanding of the issues contained in the dilemma andtherefore the, substantive content which can be used todevelop the discussion. Moreover, the background materialsserve to bridge the gap between the real world and thehypothetical dilemma situation. Hence. the dilemma will beconstrued not simply as a story. but as a reflection of realsocietal concerns and value moral conflicts that arise fromour scientific technological activities. Readings or othcractivities should therefore stimulate thinking and assist st u-dents in the formulation of their personal views regarding theaction that the main character(s) in the dilemma should take.

f he background information provided is by no meansextensive, and you may finii4t desirable to include additionalmaterials as the need arises. If you have readings or exercises

which you feel are more suitable for your students, do nothesitate to substitute or Supplement what has been includedhere. In addition. it may be necessary to discuss in class some

of the More sophisticated concepts and technical terminologyto insure that students have an understanding of thc basicissucs.

Our desire is to ay oid encumbering students with too muchtechnical detail and information. Nonetheless, some classesmay wish to pursue certain topics in grea ter depth and shouldbe encouraged to do so. From our experience, additionalresearch on the part of the students helps to generate a livelier

discussion that includes a wide diversity of perspectives.Following each dilemma are a.series of questions. These

questions can serve to probe further into thc issuc or providethe basis for developing other dilemmas. The dilemmas. aspresented. focus on a limited instance but, as educators arcwell aware, issues have many more ramifications and can bebuilt upon to cncompass a much more complex situation.

12

Therefore. by proceeding from a simple situation, it is possi-ble to increase thc levels of complexity in a step-wise fashion

with appropriate questions.Provocative questions can also help students reflect on how

they might be affected by ccrtain decisions or policies andtheir roles as future decision-making citizens.

Presentation of the Dilemma After the students haveread the introductory material as a classroom or homeworkassignment, the dilemma can be presented. The dileMma may

be read to the class as a whole, or else, each student can readthe dilemma for himself, herself. At th6 point you may wishto determine if the students fully understand the dilemma.This can be identified by asking:

Do you feel that this is a hard question to answer?Will'someone please summarin the sittiation?What things might the main character have to consider in

making a choice?What are thc main points in the conflict?Who would be primarily affected by the decision?

Small Group DiscussionIt is usually recommended thatdilemnia discus.sions be first conducted in small groups fol-lovvedby discussion with thc entire class. Students often arcmorc willing to'speak out in small rather than large groups. Itoffers individuals greater opportunity tO speak out as well asplaces more responsibility on cach person to contrit9.4e to the

group's activities. Thc sense of informality in nall groupallows for entertaining unique or unusual ideas that st udentsMay, hesitatc to bring up in a larger grouping for fear ofridicule or "put-downs."

Homogeneous GroupingThe small discussion groups(four to six students)'may be-formed in a number of waSts.From a show of hands or written answers students who vote"yes" or "no" on the question can bc identified and'groupedaccording to thcir position. There sheuld be enough heter-ogeneity among class members to create division the

question and formation of thc small discussion groups.Small groups whcrc members hold similar positions would

provide a more congenial atmosphere for initiating discus- 'sion. Here the students will feel less threatened if their peersshare the same action decision and 'be more willing to con-tribute to the conversation. The membership would be moresupportive. and individuals would not sense a fcar Of attack or

failure.

Heterogeneous Grouping In another format, studentsmay be arbitrarily grouped. Here they have the additional'task of evaluating. analyring. criticiring and challenging thereasons giv en in thc alternative choices. In this approach thedegree of controversy is heightened creating the potential ofgenerating a livelier exchange. In defending a particular ehol-ice. the student will need to comc up with morc convincingreasons in order to persuade the others to support his/ herside. Or the group 'flight begin by using a "brainstorM"session and generate a series of supporting reasons for thcdifferent positions. These responses can thcn be examined and

compared with oneanother. Through an elimination process,thc group can select the more compelling arguments for each

Teacher Activities

4

assign readings.exercises, etc

DIAGRAM 1

SCHEMA FOR DILEMMA DISCUSSIOk

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

check students'understanding PRESENTATION OF DILEMMA

set up small groups

help stimulatediscussion(probe questions)

coordinate class focus(probe questions)

bring discussion to Nose.summarize main reasons

determine types ofrelevant activities

SELECT ALTERNATIVEPOSITIONS

SMALL GROUP DISCUSSION

CLASS DISCUSSIONS

SUMMARIES

---1EXTENSION ACTIVITIES(optional)

Whateser grouping strategy you decide to employ. all the&imps should focus on the moral Issues of the dilemma. lomore personally ins oh e students in the group discussion hase

them first express their feelings about the dilemma. Somepreliminary questions for consideration might include.

What issues in the dilemma are hard to talk about? Whatmakes them difficult to discuss?

Can you foresee yourself has ing to make such a decision?

Do you know any one who has had to make a similardecision?

&Have you recently read any news articles about similardilemmas?

How do you think you would feel if you had to make sucha decision?

When you have a problem, how do you thmk it through?Once the students become comfortable with the discussion

format. they can then begin to critically discuss the positiontaken and the supporting reasons. They should consider the.adequacy of the reasons given as well as the adequacy of their

own reasons. After stating comparing and evaluating each of

Student Activities

readings. films,exercises

k

identify situation,clarify terms

indicate preliminaryaction Choice

examine individualreasonsreact to probe questions

examine differentreasons - group reportsdiscuss issues, con-sequences, implications

present main ideas,

'11reasons -review discussion

further research, essays,. analogous dilemmas. etc.

the reasons, they might selea two or three of those that theybelieve bestsupport the positietaken on the dilemma issues.Each of the dilemmas contains Iwo or mare major moralissues. It is important that the students recognize the issueswithin a dilemma and direct their attention to the issues andnot to the irrelevant aspects of.the dilemma (i.e., speculatingon the reality of such a situation).

If a group has difficulty in getting started or if discussionbegins to lag, the teacher can interject a probe question or two'to activate conversation. (See the discussion below on:thedifferent types and uses of probt questions.) Sample probequestions are.listed at the end of each dilemma and may beused selectively as needed. It is ofieduseful to have studentsanswer a few of probe questions asa written assignment priorto the group discussion. In this way students have time andopportunity to reflect on the issues and become more con-structive contributors to the dialogue.

A recorder should be selectedlo list the group's conclusionto be presented in a written or verbal form for the entire Classdiscussion.

13

Class Discussion The entire class reconvenes to hear thecomments made in the 1. anous groups. The discussion results

of each of the groups are presented for the entire class toexamine. They might bc best displayed on the chalkboard .or,overhead projector. This procedure presents the opportunityfor students taking opposing views to ask questions andchallenge the different viewpoints. Again, the adequacy of the

reasons are critically' analyzea and merits of cach discussed.

Students reasoning at lower levds will be exposed to higherlevel reasoning and discover that their reasons may not havetaken wider implications into consideration and hence bc less

approprjate.for Dreolv ing the conflict.[he crass as a whole can then choose the best reasons for

each position. You will find that although students may notbe able to generate higher level reasons they will tend to prefer

reasons one Ntage higher than their own.I he class discussion is most fruitful if the discussion guides

students to explore ideas they ha;e'not considered and tothink about those higher level reasons. This can be accom-plished through thc use of probe questions. There are basi-cally seven types of probe questions:u

I Clary) mg probe. Asking student to explain what hc shcmeans in his her statement. "What do you mean when yousay that concealing evidence is immoral? What is the meaning

of immoral?"2 Percepnon clieclong probe. Determining whether stu-

dent understands a statement made by another individual."Please explain to me what Joe has just said."

3 issue specific probe. Examining student's thinking on themajor issues ( Kohlberg has identilkd ten that underlie moralreasoning- see Fable 4)."Why should the government estab-lish standards for air quality? What should good guidelinestake into account?" ( Issues. governance and law)

4 hirer-woe probe: Resolv ing conflict when two or moreissues appear to be at odds. "Should a richer country beallowed to use a greater share of the earth's resources?"( Issues: social justice, life. propert))

5 Rule sum 11 probe. Placing student in the position ofsomeone involved in the dilemma. "What would you do ifyou had to make that decision?"

6 bmversal «msequences probe: Considering thc implica-tion of the judgment made hcn applied to everyone. "Whatmight happen if every household were required to reduce itsuse of electricity by 3K? Is it fair to place such demands on

everyone?"7 Reason seeking probe: "How did you comc to this

conclusion?" or "Why?"Questioning along these lines will lead students to broadcn

their scope of thinking and to evaluate effects and consequen-

ces ot different solutions. It offers them an opportunity to seehow others might.th ink about the same issue and challenges

them to consider the many sides of an issue.Probe questions can also bc used to develop alternative

dilemmas or mtroduce morc abstract idcas increasing thc

complexity of thc dilemma. For instance, a dilemma involv-ing personal sacrifices in a gasoline rationing situation might

be extended to consider social and life-style changes in ourhighly m obile society. How shouted transponation fuel be best

allocated? Does private and public interest conflict if gasoline

14

were rationed? Dilemmas of an inter-personal nature can thusbe presented from a community national or even inter-globalperspective to stimulate thinking about future implicationsfor human society.

Skillful questioning becomes the tool to aid students tothink critically- analyzing the positions they take and thevalues inherent in thcir position. Tt,ey should begin to dis-cover thc significance of their principles by relatirt thoseprinciples to specific deeisions and situations. Is governmentseverely limiting our freedom of choice when it enacts safetyregulations? What should freedom mean? What is the rela-tionship between freedom and responsibility? What should be

thc role of governthent in protecting the health and welfare offuture society? The constant interplay between the abstractprinciples concepts and specific instances is pertinent in mak-

ing the dialogue a thoughtful. meaningful exerdse. Studentsneed to understand concepts on their own terms before thcycan integrate new concepts and ideas into thcir thought struc-ture. The process of development is one where studentsactively experience (or think about) new ideas which in turnintcract in restructuring the form of thinking.

Discussion should also include analysis of the informationand facts given. How does the information influence thedecision? What is inferred from the information presented?Were the facts provided suffident for infornied decision mak-ing? What additional information is desirabk? How mightone go about acquiring additional knowledge? On what basis

does one sort out and analyze the facts given'? To what degree

does the information influence thededsion towards one posi-tion or another?

Finally, the consequences and implications must beA ppraised. This is the test of the effects of the position taken;again values arc weighed. What values are held? What makcs

t hem desirable? What are t he priorities? How is the nature of

human society perceived?Closing the Discussion The discussion can bc closed with

a simple summary statement of thc major points made, This

summation will help the student bring together the ideasentertained during thc discussion into sharper focus. Oneapproach is to write down the list of the major reasons/argu-ments "pro" and "con". Thc reasons most preferred by thestudents can be indicated, or the reasons can be rank ordered.

The different positions on the dilemmas should not bejudged for thpt would imply_a correct answer. A "right"-answer WOUld also defedt the purpose of future discussions;studcnts will try to "second guess" thc optimum positionres'ponse. However, at this time thc students should haveanother opportunity to choose reasons thcy personally preferor find most persuasive. This decision nccd not be openly

declared. Suggest that the students examine their originalreasons after hearing thc other commems. What might theywish to Change or add?

It maybe appropriate at this timc to point out some actualsituations that resemble the hypothetical dilemma. How Arethey resolved and what were some of thc results? Studentsmay begin to notkc analogous dilemmas that arc currentlymaking the news headlines. It is a good idea to take everyopportunhy to relate concepts discussed in class to the stu-dents' personal experiences and levels of interest.

22

Some General Guidelines for Dilemma Discussion

Di lem ma discussitins should flow naturally and comforta-bly. However, whcn students have had little exposure toopen-ended types of discussions. it is often diffiCult ten engagethem in in-depth exploration of Mt isslie. The following arcsome pointers that might'beuseful in stimulating discussion.

Goals of Moral DiscussiotiLAarry Beyer, who has writtenextensively on moral discussion techniques. has pointed outthat the goals of moral discussion should contribute to theoverall objectives of the course and general educational goals.

in addition to introducing new ones. Hence these goals aregeneral rather than narrow in. nature. Among these are: I )

improving, learning skills. 2) improving self-esteem. 3)irriprming attitudes toward school. 4) improving knowledgeof key concepts. and 5) facilitating stage change.12

An im portant teachi ng stra tegy is to encourage students tothink about and reflect on alternatives and consider differentideas. The process of development includes extending one'simagination and exploring one's thinking.13

Classroom Atmosphere Every cffort should be taken tocreate an atmosphere conducive to an open. free exchange ofideas. Students should feel at ease when expressing theirthoughts and, when confronted with challenge. not feel thatthey are being attacked personally. The emphasis is on analyz-ing the reasoning process by considering divergent viewpointsand alternative choices. It would be stressed that no oneanswer is correct or absolute: each position has merits andinvites investigation.

Classroom furniture should bearranged in such a way thatstudents can speak directly with one another and can be easily

heard. For small group' discussions the chairs might bearranged in a numbcr of small circles so that attention can begiven to all members of the group with-out delineating anauthority focal point. The seating should also offer somedegree of flexibility so that students might be able to shiftgroups or share their thoughts with members of other groups..A student who is uncomfortabk with one group or whowished to take the opposing position may want to move toanother group.

Role of TeacherThe teacher's crucial role in dilemmadikussions is that of a creative process facilitator whosefunction is to stimulate students' searching and "stretching,"and help students embark on their-own personal search. Akey skill lies in sensitive listening. By listening with care anddelaying action the teacher can begin to:

Identify problems that students may have in coming togrips with the issuesdo the questions need furtherclarification?

Identify students who monopolize or dominate theconversations:

Find students who are hesitant in eXpres§ing their ideas,Prevent the discussion from becomiAg a clash of

Find when the discussion begins to lag or focuses onirrelevant details. etc.

By posing questions to the group or certain groupmembers, the teacher can then provide helpful guidance orgently direct the course of the discussion.

At all times it is important that the teacher be supportiveand reinforce in a positive manner. Students should not besingled out as having given particularly "good" or "bad"answers. Each response should bc takcn as a point of depar-ture for further discussion. The question "why"shou Id be thedominant concern.

Some degree of structure in a discussion is necessary butstructure should never hind cr the flow of ideas. Probe ques-tions can serve as the guiding structure. but they need not betaken in any order or progress in a stepwise fashion. For agiven group of students some questions may stimulate moreinterest or controversy than others: the less fruitful questions.therefore. need not be pursued.

Promoting student to student interaction is another majorrole of the teacher, requiring insight and paticnce. The discus-sion process is an evolutionary one, often requiring much timebefore a definitive direction can be perceived. At times it mayeven appear that the discussion is circuitous, but it isjz:sera-tive that each student has the opportunity to air his/ her Vietv's

and partake as an active member of the group. The student,when hei she becomes confident in 41imselfi herself andrecognizes the worth of his/ her ideas, will then accept theresponsibility of his, her role in the group as well as becomemore receptive to the ideas of others.

Characteristics of Dilemma DiscussionOpen-ended approach: There is no single"righranswer.

The goal is not to reach agreement but to critically discuss thereasons uscd to justify a recommended action. The emphasisis on why some reasons may be more appropriate than others.

Free exChange of ideas:St udcnts should feel comfortablein expressing their thoughts. Each student should have anopportunity to contribute to the discussion within a non-judgmental atmosphere.

'Student to student interaction:The conversation is prim-arily between student and student, not teacher and student.The teacher uses questions to guide the discussion and toencourage students at adjacent stages of moral reasoning tochallenge one another. Lecture or recitation should beavoided,

Development.of listening and verbal skills: Each studentshould be intimately engaged in the discussion activity, build-ing and expanding on one another's ideas as well as examining

each response critically.Focus on reasoning: Reasons are to emphasizg the pres-

criptive "should" rather than the "would" arguments.Dilemmas produce conflict: Conflict heighttns student

involvement and interest and should have a personalizedmeaning for the student. Resolution of internal conflict is aprecondition for advancement to higher stage reasoning.

Helpful Hintst

Review carefully the dilemma to be discussed in class andtry to anticipate any problems that students might encounterwhen dealing with the dilemma.

Identify the main issues and list a few questions that mighthelp clarify the issues for the students (particularly, how theseissues might relate to the students' lives).

Determine if there are 'words or concepts that may beunfamiliar to your students. These should be defined and

discussed so that the students do not become overwhelmedby the terminology and can more easily grasp the essence of

the problem,If you haw readings which you feel are more pertinent or

appropriate. use them in place of those included here.Consider whether or not the dilemma poses conflict for

your students. It is often possible that the dilemma as writtenis either'too sophisticated or too simplistic, and the studentscannot appreciate the implicit conflict. The dilemma questionmight be reworded or altered in order to elicit a division ofopinion among the students.

When presenting the dilemma story make sure the st u-dents understand the problem and the goal of thc discussionactivity. fhis can be accomplished by hay ing a student sum-manic the story and list some of the possible alternativesavailable to the main character(s).

Ifa class is not accustomed to discussion-type activities, itmight be wise to group the students in such a way that thosewho are more vocal and aggressive do not dominate ormonopoliie-the discourse. Try to balance each group withdifferedt personality characteristics.

When the discussion has difficulty getting started or getsbogged down, have the students role-play the main character.The shift in focus can assist them in gaining additional pers-pective into the situation.

Try not to be too impatient if the discussion does not seem

to go anywhere. As in any other type of group interaction.soIlle warm-up time Is necessary so that students can relaxand reflect on thcir own thoughts.

Students may continually look to you as teacher fordirection and "correct" answers..When asked a question youcan shift the attention by posing that question to anotherstudent and seek his her opinion. In this way the dynamics ofstudent interaction can he maintained.

Tape recording some of the student dialogue may .beuseful as an evaluation tool to help organin future discus-sions and suggest additional probe questions.

It is important that the discussion does not drift aimlesslyor become a clash of personalities. Skillful interjection ofprobe questions will provide direction to the group discus-sion. therefore, become fardiliar with the different types ofprobe questions so that you can use them with fluency.

Questions Commonly AskedIn order to lead dilemma questions, do teachers need to

identify the stage at which a student reasons?No, thcrc is usually enough heterogeneity within a class-

room so that several stages of reasoning ate represented.

\lvfost important is to encourage different students toengage inthe dialogue and to bring out the many different ways toresolve a problem.

What if everyone in the class takes the same piiiidtih?`This does not present any difficulty. The particular position

taken is not important; what is iMportant is the argumentused to support t he position. The different levels of reasoningon the dilemma should provide sufficiently lively debate.Students can also be asked to put themselves in the otherposition and develop arguments to support that position.

Should students be retiuired to Ow reasons for their,decisions?

No, if reasons arc not volunteered, you can simply askanother student to comment. The debate should not be forced

but evolve naturally.

How does one detect student growth?Development is a slow process and a limited ntfinber of

classroom dilemma discussions is not expected to advancestudents from one .stage to the next overnight. Flowever.students having experienced a diversity of alternative ideasshould begin to develop an increasingly more globaforienta-tion-and consider the different aspects of a problem..

Will a student reasoning at higher levels regress:andaccept the reasons oj'a more forqiil lower stage argumenal

No. regression is not consistent with the stage theory. Per-sons reasoning at higher stages will see their argument rein-

forced as the discussion continues. Their reasons can dealmore effectively with the question over a broader variety ofsituations, lower stage reasons begin to fall short. Studies

, have demonstrated that higher reasons are preferred overlower reasons.

How long does one continue the discussion?Discussion shoufd continue for as long as it is fruitful and

students continue to display a level of interest andinvolvemenw

Is the object of the discussion to convince the class toaccept higher level reasons?

No. Simply "parroting" higher stage reasons does not effect

or indicate growth. A stage reflects one's dominant mode ofthinking on moral issues. one that is utilind. The purpose ofthe discussion is to provide new exposures and create a stateof disequilibrium so that individuals begin to rethink andrestructure. Discussion facilitates the course of development:

it does not dictate it.

o Edwin Fenton, Ann Colby and Bo* Spetcher-Dubm. Developing moral chleininakfor3oual (Nom Cambridge Harkard Unhersity. Moral

Education Rocarch Foundation. 1974.*Barry Hem Conducting moral diwusmorm in the claNsroom. Soda/ Edueathm. April. 1976. 195-292.

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Etcck. Ethics. Toronto: McGraw-Hill, 1972.

16 9 ,

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Suggested Teaching Strategies

1

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Introduction

Filmstrip and Audiotape Cassette: "Perspectives on Transportation"

This filmstrip serves to introduce the module. The general overview provided and issuesraised will help to establish the underlying theme of the module the changes brought about bymodern transportation and critical concerns to be addressed now and in the future.

Following the showing of the fitnstrip, a short discussion of the ideas presented will beuseful. Questioons might include:

What types of new problems do we now face because of advances in transportation?How does life today compare with life one hundred years ago? What changes have beenbrought about by new forms of transportation?In many countries the automobile is considered a luxury that only a few can afford. Howdo people in those countries travel?

tip what ways do we depend on transportation by car? By railroads? By boats? Byairplanes? By space craft?How might we be affected if trains suddenly ceased to run? Airplanes? Trucks? Ships?How important ar5 fast forms of transportation? To whom are they most important?

Filmstrip Script

Film StripFrame

Title Credits

0

SPACE SHUTTLE ORBITER ENTERPRISE

It is hard to think of any activity that does not involve transportation in one form oranother, directly or indirectly. Our work and leisure all'revolve around getting fromone place to another.

COMMUTERS WAITING FOR TRAIN

We all depend on transportation, the moving of people, goods or anything for thatmatter. Transportation systems and vehicles come in various shapes and sizes.

MAP OF AIRLINE ROUTES

Our modern world can be described as a vast system of transportation networks.These networks have made it possible for us to reach any corner of the earth.

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MAZE OF INTERSECTING HIGHWAYS

However, to keep the network operating, such as the millions of automobiles inAmerica on the move, a system of support services and structures is required. In-cluded in this network are the millions of miles of roads, bridges, parking lots, tunnels,service stations and people needed to inep them functioning.

VIEW OF EARTH FROM SPACE

Our immense earth' has seemingly shrunk in size because of air craft developed inthe last hundred years. Trips that once took months or even years now take hoursand, in the future, might only require minutes.

COVERED WAGON

A coast to boast covered wagon trip in 1849 took 166 days.

I

18

JET AIRPLANE,

The same trip today by jet airplane takes approiimately 5 hours.

SPACE SHUTTLE .

In the future, the space shuttle will make this same trip in only 8 minutes.

,.PORT CITY: SHIPS UNLOADING .

1

How our world looks today has been shaped by the various forms of transportation.

Cities have grown because of good transportation networks,

10EARLY TRAIN

..

People have continued to improve upon travel from the time the wheel was firstinvented. Change often occurs rapidly. What was once a common sight, just a fewyears ago, can now be seen only in museums.

1 1 MODERN MASS TRANSIT CARRIER

Improvements, for the most part, are related to speed, convenience and comfort.,

12CONTEMPORARY CAR .

In today's society, especially in the United States, we also have a greater variety ofchoices. In addition to buses, trains, boats and airplanes, our private automobilesallow us to go where we want to go, and when we want to go.

13A SEA OF PARKED CARS

We, Americans, carry on a great love affair with our personal automobile. For both

work and play, we are never without our cars. People have been known to drive'one

block to visit neighbors.

14A JEEP LOADED FOR CAMPING

Yet, without a car it would be difficult.to vacation ln wilderness country.

15TRAFFIC JAM

We have gladly accepted the conveniences of modem travel. At the same time, wehave forced to adjust to some unpleasantries of increased mobility, such as: traffic.

A FLAT TIRE

frustration,. .

OUT OF GAS

fuel shortages, ,

POLLUTED SKY

dirty air,

1J.JUNKED CARS

? -other environmental hazards,

20DAMAGED AUTOMOBILE

accidents, injuries, and sometimes even death.

26

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..

4

21'

OIL REFINERY --.

the widespread use of the private automobile has thus created new concerns. Build-ing and maintaining a car requires many resources, some of which can never bereplaced. In addifion to steel, rdbber and glass, our cars use 5 million barrels of oil aday, more than any form of transportation, and produce 80% of all air pollution.

.

22

CAR'EXH#UST.

The automobile exhaust spews over 80 million t6ns of poisonous gasejay.ear intothe air. The Se poisons are responsible eart, lung and eye diseasel ii'S -well as

_contribute to mental stress. In addition, 57,000 peo.le die in' automobile accidentseach year.

23CITY SCENE AT RUSH HOUR

Although thousands upon thousands of miles Of roads crisscross our country, we arecontinually plagued with traffic jams. Everyone seems tr want to be at the same placeat the same time. .

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NARROW CITY STREET

With file automobile, people can work in the city and live in the suburbs. Howeyer,many cities have not been able to keep up with the rapid tncrease th traffic. We stillfind city streets which have not been widened or changed since the early horse andbuggy days.

25.EMPTY BUS

The least expensive form of land transportation is also one of the most under:utilizedthe bus. '*

26/FULLY LOADED BUS

Obviously, buses can hold many more passengers than the private car and thereforeoperate less expensively. Despite the economy and energy savings of buses, peoplestill choose the convenience of the personal automobile.

.

27CARGOIRAIN

.

Railroads continue to be an important part of our transportatiOn networks, especiallyfor the delivery of heavy cargo and supplies.

28EMPTy TRAIN NTrains, however,,have been fpr the most part rejected by passengers.

'7--AIRLINE PASSENGERS

-Once again, speed wins out. For the traveler who onbe used railroads for long dis-tance travel, the airplane is now the carrier of choice. 1

29

30

I.PLANES AT AIRPORT .

,

/For those who ban afford it, plane travel today is last, easy and comfortable. Theairplane has been particularly important to the business traveler. Asa resulf, one canconduct business almost anywhere in the world. Most places are only One day's airtime away.

31

"PLANE IN 'FLIGHT . '

Much freight is moved by air. We now find our supermarkets stocked with exotictropical fruits, fresh vegetables in the dead of winter, breads from Parislantakeries

all brought in by air cargo planes. We can sample feeds from ali over the worldwithout ever leaving our home town.

19

20

32PLANE REFUELING

Alrptanes, also, haVe their drawbacks. They consume,tremendous amounts of en-ergy. A jumbo jet can use 47,000 gallons of fuel in just one flight.

33S.S.T. ,

Our newest development in air travel is the' supersonic plane which flies at speeds of1,400 miles an hour, nearly twice the speed of sound. This plane, however, usesmore fuel and carries fewer passengers than the 747 or DC-10.

34HOUSES NEAR AIRPORT ,

Another ploblem with airplanes is the tremendous noise. People living near airportsmust endure the constant sounds of roaring engines, especially those located in thelanding patterns of airports.

35

AIRPORT RUNWAYS

Another issue is the need to expand runways to handle the larger planes and theincreased traffic. More land is needed, but who wants an airstrip, in one's backyard?So, planes must often circle for hours before they can,land, increasing the chances ofmid-air collisions.

36

A FUTURISTIC PLANE

Problems accompany each type of transportation. How might we solve some of ouryansportation problems? Future air vehicles may need to meet the requirements ofquieter engines), more fuel ethnomy, and shorter runways. Who knows, we May evenseethe return of the dirigible! .

37

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SPACE SHUTTLE -_

Products of the space shuttle program might possibly be modified for conimercial airtravel.

38A FUTURISTIC CAR

The automobile, as known to us today, may look completely different in the future.Fuel shortage and rising fuel cost will force these changes.

39FUTURISTIC MASS TRANSIT CARRIER

Mass transit systems may need to play a greater role in the future. trapqystemsthat look like something out of science fiction today, may become a reality.tibrsw.

.

40GAS PUMPS .

The hard reality of decreasing supplies of oil and pollution raises some difficult ques-tions. Will we be able to afford the luxury of the personal automobile in,theluture?

41LARGE RECREATION VEHICLE

Will we be able.to continue traveling at high speeds and in comfort?

42. TRAIN YARD

Installing new mass transit systems is expensive. Will we be able to afford them?

43-........-,---. .

TRANSPORTATION IN A FUTURISTIC CITY

What choices in transportation will be open to us in the future?

44- 0

SPACE COLONY.

.

What Is your perspective on transportation?

7

SCTION I:LAND TOANSPORTATION

In this section greatest emphasis is placed on travel by automobile, the mostcommon form of transportation in this country. It is also the form to which stu-dents can most easily relate. Yet, the problems created by the excessive use of theprivate automobile have at times reached crisis proOrtiOns. We have highlightedin particular the problems of air pollution, safety, and fuel supplies.

at.

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Reading 1:The Car- Friend and Foe

This reading briefly summarizes the variety of prob-lems created by automobile travel, particularly pollu-tion. Some ideas may be new to the student and re-quire further elucidation. Among these might includethe toxic, effect of nitrogen oxides hydrocarbons andcarbon monoxide and the "green house" effect pro-duced by carbon diqxide. Questions that follow thereading provide additional ideas for discussion.

Student Activity: Dilemma Discussion

Dilemma I: "On a Clear Day. . . ."Air pollution and traffiC congestion are major pi ob-

lems in most large rnetropolitan cities. Various solu-tions have been offered, some which many people finddifficult to ,accept. This dilemma exemplifies a pro-posal which will create economic hardships for onesection of the community, yet will quickly improve airquality. The mayor must resolve the conflict betweenthe need for healthy air and the viability of the busi-ness communityt -

Please follow: the basic procedures for conductingdilemma discussions 'as outlined in this Teacher'sGuide.

Reading 2: Problem for Cities: Where to Put 36 MillionMore Cars , z

- The reading focuses on the problem of limited spaceand increased numbers of automobiles. This situationis one that cities are finding to be increasingly moredifficult to manage. While this reading cites examples

Activity 1: Road Maps and Their Uses

Handout 1: Road Maps and Their Uses

Description

This map reading exercise has been included to helpfurther develop students' map reading skills. They willuse information found on a map to answer the ques-tions on the worksheet.

Student Objectives

To learn about the different types of informationone can extract from a typical road map.

To interpret information found in maps and applyit to trip planning.

Student Activity

Prior to this activity, have students bring in a mapof the mid-Atlantic states. Maps produced by the oilcompanies are most satisfactory.

Have the students complete the handout individ-ually or as a small group exercise.

22

from the nation's-larger cities, our own communities(save for .sparsely poPulated areas) share simiiar diffi-culties.

After the students have completed the reading, theymight examine the existing local traffic pattern Of theircomintinity and-try to predict the effects 'of-doublingthe number of cars currently on the road. How-mightthey adjust to such a situation? How niight they haYeto change their daily activities or travel habits?

Student Activity: bileMmrDiseussion

Dilemma 2: "One Less for the Road"

In this dilemma a congresswoMan must decide be-tween her_tresponsibility to her constituency and re-sponsibility to the general public.

While thiS dilemma deals with:difficult decision tobe made by a, lawinaker, several'Cither questions alsosurface. They are questiens'eonierning the limits Ofgovefnment authority and personal propertyrights. TOwhat extent might bur freedom of choice be limited inorder to protect public health and safety and our econ-omy? Although the situation may today, seem far-.fetched, the hard reality of limited oil supplies, in-creased population and our growing trade deficitcreated by oil imports may all someday fcirce,our gov-ernment to enact drastic conservation policies. As unpleasant as it may be, students need to confront such apossibility as well as contider alternative measuresthat might be taken in order to prevent a crisis situa-tion.

Please follow the suggested procedures for condactting dilemtna discussions.

. If the exercisels-completed individually, have.theistudents- th Trithall gi:Oupi to share one another'sfinding. What are the similarities? Differences?

Comments and Suggestioni

Typically we consult road maps for directionSfrom one place to another. However, a wealth of infor4mation 'is compacted in the graphic representationlMany inferences can be drawn about an area by exarn-ining its surroundings, the type of roads leading to it',landmarks, etc. Learning to interpret maps and mak4ing inferences from the given information will tnhanCe;one's appreciation of aseemingly mundane road map.;

ff students have not had Much expetience in mapreading, it may pc, psoul to revieiv the legend, so.that,they understand'the Symbols used.

Reading 3.: The Nation's Tragedy

Our young students, for the most part, tend te take acavalier attitude when it comes to driying, at fer ihat

30

Activity 1 Road-Maps and Their Uses

QUESTIONS

1. Name three cities with a population over 50,000:

ft,

HANDOUT ONE

2. What roads might one take to gei from Boston to Philadelphia?

3. Which road would you select to make such a trip? What factors would you have toconsider in making the decision?

4. What is the approximate distance between Boston and Philadelphia? In miles? Inkilometers? By which route?

car averages 15 miles to a gallon of gasoline, how many gallons would it use ona trip from Baltimore to Atlantic City?

How much would it cost to drive from Scranton, Pa. to Allentown, Pa.? (Assumethat the cost of gasane is $1.50 pei- gallon, and your car averages 15 miles to a

Hon of gasoline.)

4\7. What are the interstate highways which run from New York to Boston?

8. Which route Might you take if you wanted to do a great deal of sightseeing fromNew York ti Boston? Why?

9. At the preseut speed limit of 55 mph, how long wouldit take to travel from Balti-more to Wilmington? (Assume no traffic jams, just continuous- driving) Usingwhich route?

10. What are some of the major benefits of such a road map? What other things do yeuilearn from a road map?

401

11. On what type of road might one find the greatest number of facilities (e.g., reststops,. service stations, restaurants)? interstate highway or staee highway?

matter, any activity with associated risks. The casehistory of an accident presented in the beginning ofthis reading offer some sobering thoughts and maymake the statistics presented in the latter section moremeaningful. The reading also discusses the conflict be-tween government regulations and personal freedomand privacy. This issue will be further explored in thefollowing dilemma.

Student Activity: Dilemma Discussion

Dilemma 3: "flow Safe is Safe?"

9Activity 2: The Selling of the Car

Handout 2: The Car Maker's Selling Technique

Description

In this.activity students will examine advertising-strat-egies and persuasive techhiques. The auto makers areperhaps one of the nation's largest advertisers. Exam-ples drawn from their advertising will be xised to illus-trate the types of persuasive techniques employed toinfluence buying habits. In the exercise students willtry to identify the "message," "theme,' or "hiddenagenda" in the different ads. A critical examination ofthe underlying assumptions, value perspectives andhow people vieWlfie-role of the car in their lives, willthus provide students an opportunity to-exanfine theirown values. Moreover, students will learn some of thecharacteristics of diffeeent selling techniques.

Student Objectives.

To examine some techniques of persuasion usedin advertising.

To identify one's own values and values of othersas related to the ownership of the automobile.

Student Activity

' Have students bring in examples of auto adver-tisements from newspapers, magazines or brochures.Remind them,to select several examples so that theycan make comparisons between several appro'aches.

24 ,

In conflict in this dilemma are filial obedience, con-formity to peer pressures and personal rights. Addi-tionally, this-dilemma is intended to point out a typicalhuman foible. Logically, we know that seat belts, a,simple, painless safety precaution, can reduce the se-verity of injuries in automobile accidents. Yet, morethan 75% of motorists foolishly refuse to heed the pro-cedure of "buckling tip" when they drive.

\ Examples of this type of action or inaction are read-ily \found in Many other human behaviors such assmoking, the use of drugs, obeying traffic regulationsand so on.

Students, individuallY, will complete .Handout 2,The Car Maker's Selling Technique,using the ads they'selected. The chart serves to help organize and_s.um.-,marize their findings.

After the students have individually completedthe exercise, they will meet in small groups of 3 to 5members. the small group meeting they will com-pare and contrast their findings. Discussion of thequestions wilT help theth summarize,their findings anddevelop a report to present to the entire class.

Upon completion of .the presentations the entireclass will discuss the questions that focus on the inter-actions between consumers and advertising:,

.

Comments and-Suggestions

To insire that students understand how-they areto complete .the handout, review, the terms used foreach of the columns. It is.possible that there may beoverlap milting some of the terms. Therefore, studentswill have tb use their own judgment in assigning tocategories the.ftwords and phrases" found in the ad. Itis possible for the same words and phrases to appear inmore than one category. You may wish to examine onead with the entire çlass and list the findings on theboard for the students to use as an example.

This activity serves to' illustrate the idea that thepersonal automobile is not only a utilitarian piece ofmachinery but is a reflection of many of our societalvalues.

,

ACTIVITY 2

THE CAR MAKER'S SELLING TECHNIQUE

. HANDOUT TWO

Name of Car(and wheread was found)

,

Styling EconomySpecialFeatures Safety Image

Whatimpressionsdo you get from

the picture?1)

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Activity 3: Reinventing the Car

**Description,

In the previous activity students examined the valueswe, Americans, place on the personal automobile. In-creasingluel costs and diminishing supplies will forcemany different changes in the future. In this activitxstudents, will project possible future changes by de-signing their own car of the future. Students will needto consider the concerns and limitations.that are beingaddressed today and will become even more critical inthe future. Possible ways to allevltate or help reducethese problems are to be incorporated into the automo-bile they design.

Student Objectives

To become aware that environmental, economicand political factors will affect automoke transporta-tion.

To project into the future and design a car thatwill offer solutions to energy, pollution and other envi-ronmental problems.

Student Activity

Students, in small groups of 3 to 5, will create adesign for a car of the future. This design need not bedetailed or elaborate but should incorporate ideas thataddress current and future imperatives.

They will then prepare an ad or commercial forthe car that they have designed.

Each group will present its ad or commercial tothe entire class.

Comments and Suggestions

A primary purpose of this activity is to demon-strate how changes in automobile transportation willeffect lifestyle changes. Some changes may be moredifficult to accept than others. As the students present

26

their proposals, it would be instructive to pose ques-tions regarding the acceptability of the car from an en-vironmental perspective and from the perspective oflifestyle adjustmenth.

Reading 4: Excerpts from Prospects for theAutomobile: Sputtering Towards the 21stCentury

This reading briefly describes the types of synfuelsthat are currently being considered.to meet our futurefuel needs. The resources and technology required toproduce synfuels raise a new set of environmental is-sues and problems. Depending upon the interest of thestudents, you May wish to have them do additionalresearch on this subject. The information from thereading, however, should provide some backgroundfor the diScussion of the dilemma which follows.

Student Activity: Dilemma Discussion

Dilemma 4: "Fuel for Our Cars The Synfuel Bat-tle"

This dilemma is adapted from the article, "Plan to.Build A Coal Liquifaction Plant on Montana Range-

land Stirs Up a Battle Over Using Land for Synfuel.Production," by Michael Parfit, wliich"appeared in theMarch 1980 issue of the Smithsonian. Students mayenjoy reading, this article to gain further insights intothe situation.

The critical nature of this dilemma can be better ap-tpreciated if student ye an understanding of theravaging effects of stri Mining and fuel conversion. Inaddition to the destruction of topsoil, there are-prob.:lems of acid runoff, reduction Of the water table, ero-sion, increased air pollution, acid raidand other sec-ondary long-term effects. These issues should beraised during the course of the class discussion or stu-dents`may be assigned to present reports on the topic.

As an alternative to the dilemma discussion format,you may wish to use this dilemma as the topic for amore structured student debate.

Activity 4: Class Survey: Your Views on Mass Transit

Handout 3: Mass Transit Survey Form

Description

Students will conduct a survey on mass transit usageand analyze the results. In this exercise students willgain experience in conducting a survey, tabulating re-sponses and gain insight into the public's attitudes to-wards mass transportation. Results of this survey willprovide data for Activity 5.

Student Objectives

To investigate mass transit usage by conducting asurvey.

To learn to tabulate and analyze the responses ona questionnaire.

To gain an understanding of public attitudes to-wards mass transportation

Student Activities

The survey may be completed as an in-class exer-cise by having.each student complete the survey ques-tionnaire, Handout 3. Or, students may conduct thesurvey outside of class and interview people in thecommunity. A survey of a cross section of the commu-nity, of course, would be the more interesting. (If alarge population is surveyed, students may wish toidentify the respondents in terms of age, sex, occupa-tion, etc. In this way they can develop a profile ofmass transit riders as part of their findings. "Whatgroups are the most frequent riders?" "For what pur-poses do they use the transit system?" "In what sec-tion of the community is mass transit most widelyused?" Answers to questions of this nal:0.e can bie ob-tained if the students indicate the additional personaldata somewhere on the form and incorporate this in-formation in their analysis.

When all the' cluestionnaires have been comple-ted, the responses will be tallied and analyzed by theentire class. Detailed instructions for tabulating the re-sults,are given in the Student's Guide. It is recommen-ded that the students work in small groups with eachgroup responsible for a section of the questionnaire.

When the class has finished the task of compilingthe responses, each group will present its findings and

Activity 5: Plans for a 'Mass Transit System

Handout 4: Mass Transportation

Description

in this activity students will examine methods to eitherimprove or develop mass transportation ip their own

describe how it has iinterpreted the results. Theyshould consider, the inferences that can be drawrilromthe information obtained. That is, what do they thinkare the problems and assets of the mass transit sys-tem? Do they think that riderShip can increase? Ingeneral, how do they think about the community's atti-tude towards mass-transit? Is it a feasible alternativeto the private automobile?

Comments and Suggestions

if the students are mathematically inclined, theymay wish to perform. some simple statistical analysison the data and/or display the data in a graphic form.This might include "average distance traveled," "av-erage distance to a transit stop," "frequency ofridership in different sections of town."

Some of the.data might also be displayed in a de-mographic form where the information is plotted on amap. For example, students can take a map of thecommunity, draw in one or twd transit routes and thenlocate Where-the people reside. Riders and nonriderscan be indicated using different colored symbols.From such a display, one can readily see where themajority of riders cluster and determine the relation-ship between proximity to the service and use of thesystem. This information will also be useful for thenext activity.

'Results showing little or no mass transit ridershipcan be equally useful. Class discussion might then fo-cus on why mass transit is not feasible or impracticalin that situation.

Reading 5: Mass Transit

Mass transit is an alternative to the private automo-bile, and several types of mass transit systems are dis-cussed in this article. Also, some of the problems asso-ciated with mass transit are highlighted cost, main-tenance, service, fuel consumption and consumer ap-peal. Students should begin to examine the number ofpossible types of mass transit and consider how eachmight best _suit the needs of different communities (ur-ban, suburban, rural). The idea of "trade-offs" is animportant concept to explore at this time.

i

comnmnity. The purpose of this ekercise is to demon-strate the many needs:and conflicting interests thatmust.be taken into account in the planning process. Itis also important for students to recognize the fact thateconOMICS (many times only from a short-range Per-spective) play an influential role in the decisions made.

27

ACTIVITY 4 HANDOUT THREE

Mass Transit Sarvey Form

1. How many aims a month do you use maS is transit?

2. What type of mass transit do you use? i

(subway, bus, trolley, train-, Cable car, monorail)

3. Approximately how far do you go?

4. What is the furthest distance you travel on mass transit?

5. For what reason do you use mass transit'?(Work, school, shopping, pleasure, etc.) :

6. How far from your home is the nearest mass transitstop or station?

7. Do your parepts use miss transit regularly? (circle one) Yes No

Why or why not?

8. Do you think that the mass transit system in your community is adequate and con:venient to use? (circle one) Yes No

Why or why not?

9. If the mass transit system in your community providd more services, do you thinkthat you will use it more often? (circle one) Yes No

Why or why not9

10. If you do not use mass transit in your community,/please explainthe reason.

II. Do you think that the mass transit system in your community is used to capaoity?

Explain.

12. How can the mass transit system attract more riders9

tsi

ACTIVITY 5

MASS TRANSPoRTATION

HANDOUT FOUR

Current Systems Sections of City Serviced Proposed New Types Sections of City Serviced

List Benefits' of NewProposed SystemCompared to current system

.

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In many cases, mass transit has not proved to be anattractive alternative for a number of reasons. Stu-dents should try to address these criticisms when theydevelop their plan.

Student Objectives

To learn about existing and new types of massArai-Sit-systems,

To develop a proposal for a system that will meetthe needs of the community.

Student Activities

Students will work together in small groups to de-velop a proposal for mass transit in their community.

They will first examine the data from their surveyas well as other information about theexisting system,if any. Information about existing systems should berecorded on the first two columns of the student hand-.oyt to help them organize their thoughts. A map of thecommunity will also be useful in developing theirplans.

io

Each group will develop a plan to improve exist-ing service or provide new types of service.

/.:The proposals are presented to the entire classwhich will then select the plan best suited for the com-munity. In some cases, a combination of several plansmay prove to be the best solution.

Comments and SuggeStions

In sp-arsely populated areas or sprawling subur-bia, the typical forms of mass transit found in cities arenot feasible. In this case, students should consider al-ternative ways to use the private car or small intra-communjty conveyances. These alternatives might in-clude_minibus pools, dial-a-ride systems, or acommunity fleet of energy efficient yehicles that areshared on a coin operated system and located at strate-gic stations.

Perhaps, a major reason that mass transit hA notbecome important in many areas is because people afeso ingrained in their habit of driving their own car.. Afocus of the class discussion should be directed 'aitechniques for attracting riders and increasing cus-,tomer appeal.

I.

SECTION 11:Water Transportation

Vansportation by water craft may very well be one of the earliest forms of longdistance travel. And, until zecently, boating has not caused any serious environ-mental' dislocations. (Boats have,- however, facilitaied the over-fishing of rhanywaters.) With our increasing dependence on imported oil, a new concern hasdeveloped oil spills. This sectiom mainly addresses both the need for and clan-.gers associated with the superships.

f.

'Reading 6: Superships, Superhazards

Reading 7: Supertankers and the Law of the Sea

These two articles highlight the problems and hazardsthat shipping oil has created. The problems can be ad-dressed at several levels. From a more personal per-spective, we can focus on the question of fuel conser-vation. More difficult to resolve are questionsconcerning resirnsibility for oil spill clean-nps, theprotection of the ocean environment, restitution pay-ments to aggrieved parties and shipping regulations.All these questions need to be resolved at the,interna-tional level- and solutions do not come, easily. We, atthe same time, want to protect our ocean environmentand need thc oil to satisfy our enormous energy ap-petite.

From these readings and subsequent discussion stu-dents will, hopefully, gain a broader perspecae on thnature and complexity of shipping a toxic cargo acrosswaters. Politics,,economics, lifestyle; international re-lationships, moral responsibility all are related-tosupertanker shipments.

Student Activity: Dikmma Discussion

Dileibma 5: "Oil in the Sea"

This dilemma addresses a ship captain's conflict ofrespOnsibilities. As captain, he-is respefisible for thesafety of the crew, ship and cargo. At the same time,should he be responsible for the effects of oil releasedinto the water? Oil sPilled into the ocean wiltresull in"

fish kills, polluted beaches, injury or death to otheranimal life as well as severe detrimental effects on thefishing industry of the nearby community. In this situa-tion, does Miguel have the right to disobey orders?'The dilemma also illustrates a predicament of ad-vanced technologies. Our machine; have increasedour physical capabilities by many fold, and as a resultwe are capable of inflicting damages with widespread:and extensive consequences never beforeencounteredin- history. It is importpnt to help studentsqecognizethe enormity of repercussions associated with our var-ious activities and our need'to develop a sense of re-sponsibility and vigilance.

Please follow the basic procedure for conducting di-lemma discussions as suggested in this Teacher'sGuide.

Student Activity: Dikmma Discussioa

Dilemma 6: ,"Stranded at Sea"

The law or traditions of the sea, rescuing' the\ shipereeked, and immigration,laws of nations becomes\ issues in conflictO this dilemma. Theinioral exigencies

are readily evideint.but the difficult questiOn is, to Whatextent can wi be responsible for helping-others withottt__,jeopardizing our vwn welfare and .safety. It, is:a bask-queition of humanitarianism, oil' obligatiods and ré-sponsibilities. . <,

Please fallow the basicprocedure for conducting di-lemma discussions as suggested in this Teacher'sGuide.

31

-

SECTION III:Air Transportatkm

, .

In this last section, dealing with air transportation, we will examine questionsregarding the supersonic transport and the space shuttle. While travel and trans..port brconventional airplanes ha'Ve,become a commonplace scene, air travel 'bythe aforementioned opens new frontiers and horizons in space. Human endeavorsnow can extend far beyond the limits of earth, and we'are confronted with differ-ent issues and uncertainties. We want to test our limits.and, quench our insatiablecuriosity, but ;an the investment in capital, resources and reseaich be justified?Students will explore the arguments surrounding this issue in a role play simula-tion and discussion activities.

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33

; ,

INTEREST GROUP: FACT SHEET TO DEVELOP ARGUMENTS..

Argument Reasons and Benefits Supporting Facts Possible Opp osingArguments Respbnse to Arguments,

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1) List your arguments logically and precisely; 2) Make sure Reasons & Benefits justify your arguments; 3) Be stire toinclude supporting facts and materials to support your argument; 4) Anticipate possible objection or opposing statement toyour argument and be prepared to defend your position.

41.

SENATOR'S WORKSHEET

-Interest Group Name Argument Facts Presented

Benefits toMy State

Disadvantages toMy State

,

Questions to Ask

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1) Fill in the columns as the arguments are.presented by the various interest groups; 2) Write down any question you maywish to ask the spokesperson; do not interrupt his/her presentation. Ask your questions at the end of the presentation.

46

,

iS

teading 8: TheCotiterde: Who Will Let It Fly?

s 'This reading provides the background informatiOn forthe simulation that follows. It includes the divergentviewpoints thathave surfaced in the SST contrOversy.These arguments will be further developed and ex-\panded by the students in their presentations.

You may first wish to have the students read the. Artiele and then identify and discuss the relevant-issues

=:=

prior to assignment of the simulation,activity. In thisway -you Can determine whether ornot the studentsgrasp the essence of the situation.Cor, the reading maybe assigned when the students meet in= their' interestgroups to develop their presentation. In either case,the article presents the basic elements of the cOntro-versy and highlights concerns which students can in.:vestigate1in greater depth by doing some additional

= research.

A tivity 6: The SST Hearing A Role Play Simulation

Handout 5: interest Group --Fact Sheet

Han out 6: Senator's Worksheet

Overvi w

:The stadents will simulate a Senate committee con,ducting 4 hearing on the SST landing rights. Seven stu-dents will.rePresent Senators while the remaining stu-dents wikl represent one of the six special interestgroups. Each group will make a formal presentation tothe Sen4iers; when the presentations are completedthe Senators will cast their votes and announce theresults. '

Student Objectives

To learn about the debate over the question of theSST landinig rights.

To take a role perspective and develop argumentsin support 3f that position...,

To pr sent a well developed and convincing argu-ment.

Student Activities,Assigçt or have the students select their roles. A

yell'balan ed grouping inevitably prodtkes the moredynainic i terchange; and as the teacher, you can bestdeierminVhe optimum assignment of student groups.

Have the students study Iheir role position anduse the reading to identify their major arguments.

Students should have at least one class period ormore toridentify the mOor issues and develop theirpresentation. Additionarresearch bytthe students will

enhance their learning experience and provide etherideas for debate.

Handout .5 is-to be used by the members of theinterest group to aid in the 'development -of their pre-sentation. The Senators will use Handout 6-at thehearing to help them organize their notes and com.:,ments on each group.

Upon completion of the hearing, the Senators willmeet to determine the outcome. Each vote is to beaccompanied by a short statement giving the rationalefor that 'vote. The chairman announces the decisionand explains the Senator's reasons.

Step I

Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

Step 5

The SST Simulation

Students Read Article

Formation of Interest Groups

Groupi Develot Presentation

Presentat;ons to Senate Committee

Senate Committee :Votes'

Comments and Suggestions\

When theinterest groups' prepare their presenta-tions, the SenatM will be learning about the state he/she represents and its position, on the SST. Since this isa somewhat demanding task, some guidanceon y urpart will be helpful. Hipossible, the "Senators" Mi

tht

obtain summaries of the House's or Senate"qebate crithe issue or news reports by the populailiess in t ewinter of 1975.

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Although the groups may select a spokespersonto present the arguments, the groups should be en-couraged to involve all its members in the presenta-tion. This is most easily accomplished by identifyingone aspect of the argument for each person to furtherdevelop and present at the hearing.

Reading 9: The Shuttle Era

Handout 7: The Space Program Advantages andDisadvantages

This article summarizes some basic facts about theSpace Shutile system. However, it does not discusssome possible ramifications and concerns associatedwith this complex and sophisticated' system. SoMe ofthese possibilities are raised in the qliestions which fol-low the reading.

Following the reading, Students will complete theSpace Shuttle Worksheet by listing what they believeare the advantages and disadvantages of the shuttlesystem and space colonies. They will need to developtheir ideas based on the reading and perhaps on otheroutside readings. You may wish to provide them withan example to help them get started, such as:

Advantage of Space Colony

If people lived in spacecolonies, there will bemore room on earth.

38

DIsadvantageS

People may not beable to adjust to

life in 'space.

\Tivo readings in the Appendix of this guide furtherelaborate on ideas about Space Colonies. The positiveand negative aspects are explored in greater detail.Some of the ideas entertained will provide,additionaltop`Ics for class discussion.

t

Student Activity: Dilemma Discussion,

.,

Dilemma 7: "Space Litter"

This dilemma deals with the difficult task of chooS-ing 'between danger to oneselt and endangering thelives of others. This dilemma is somewhat analogousto dur current situation with crippled'orbiting satellitesand:the possibility a debris falling on Populated areas.Wth the application of many new technotogris,.we fre-qudntly encounter the age,old questions: "How muchlrisli are we willing to accept?" "How can we best pre-ve t unforeseen risks?"

addition, we may need to raise questions abOutour responsibilities in space. Will our activitiet bringabbut irreparable changeS in spiace? Do humans have aright to pollute and exploit space ailhey have planet.Earth? Wdl we race to gainacontrol of valuable re-sources in space, and what might be the conse-quences? Do humans have a right to stake claims inspace?

Please follow the basic procedures for conductingdilemma discussions as suggested in this Teacher'sGuide.

OANDOUT SEVEN

THE SPACE SHUTTLE: Advantages And-Disadvantages '

Instructions: In the spaces below, list some possible benefits and disadvantages of the SpaceShuttle System and Space Colonies. Some have been identified in the reading; others you willhave to predict.

SPACE SHUTTLE SYSTEM

BENEFITS PROBLEMS OR DISADVANTAGES

SPACE COLONIES

BENEFITS PROBLEMS OR DISADVANTAGES

..

(Save this completed worksheet which will help you answer the questions on pg. 65)

39

SECTION 4:FuturePerspeàtives

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Activity. 7: 'fransportation in the Future: A Seen

OverviewI

In this activity stud nts are to write a scenario basedon one of the topics sUggested in the student's guide.Or alternatively, th4 may wish to develop a transpor-tation topic related tp their own particular area of in-terest. The main purpose of this activity is to engagestudents to examine potential changes or effects,created by a given decision or situation. Using tEe sce-nario format, students can incorporate some of theideas and concepts leerned from this module and theirown ideas and visions. Al! important is that the stu-dents begin to take info account fhe many complex andintricate issues surrounding the different modes oftransportation i.e., the enormous demand cars andtrucks place on a nonrenewable resource and their de-trimental effees on Onvironmental quality.

iStudent Objectives 1

To synthesize sOme of the ideas and conceptslearned and incorporate them in a scenario.

To make some projections about transportation inthe future.

Student Activities

Individually or in small groups, students will selectone of the suggested topics or another choice and de-

, velop it-into a scenario.The completed scenarios are presented to the class.

Scenario Writing

The scenario is a technique which provides students awide degree of latitude as well as aiv opportunity toproject irk) future possibilities. In fact, this is a toolfrequentl v employed by future forecasters or decisionmakers to evaluate or explain a possible future. It isbasically a story or narrative that is developed arounda series of events or desired goal, and examines thecomplex interaction of factors and variables of that sit-uation. Typically, a scenario begins with a "whatif. . ." situation. Thus, a scenario allows the writer aflexible way to consider alternatives, possiblechanges, consequences and interrelationships from a

'broader perspective. Oftentimes, a scenario is used asa planning guide to detail those steps necessary toachieve a particular goal and to investigate effects ofparticular decisions.

The two articles on space colonies (see Appendix),exemplify one type of scenario writing a descriptionof a future event. However, each writer starts with adifferent set of basic assumptions and consequently

ario Writing Exercise

foresees different futures Wspace ..colonies. In bothcases, the writers have raised important issues whichpolicy and decision makers should take into consider-ation:

Science fiction is another form of scenario writing..Since most students are familiar with science fiction inbooks and films, examples from this format may proveuseful in assisting students'in the development of theirown scenarios.

The scenarios whiCh the students will Write for thisactivity will be i er,,niorriatdfrm. Itmay be presented in a number of different Ways:. astory, a poem, cartoon drawings, a dialogue or a shortskit. Encourage students to stretch their imaginationand speculate about certain kinds of changes and try toidentify the kinds of effects those changes might bringabout. They should begin to recognize that a singlechange brings about other changes. As they relate oneevent with another a larger picture emerges and thescenario unfolds.

Some helpful hints to guide the students include:

What changes do you predict might occur?In what ways might people respond or ad-just to the change?What other alternatives are possible?Are your arguments or reasons well pre-sented?How well does the story hold together?Is it interesting to the reader?

Thinking hypothetically such as in scenariO writingis often difficult because our thinking is sol inftuencedby what we know and what we have experienced. Ifthe scenario is written as a group activity, the Possibil-ity of exploring a number of different ideas is in-creased. One technique often used for generating dif-ferent and unusual ideas is brainstorming.

Brainstorming is a useful techniqugto help a groupdevelop its scenario. The purpose ofThis techniquejsexamined, possiblx, by first posing a question. Eachperson in turn contributes an idea and this continuesaround the group until all possible ideas seem to beexhausted. One person's idea often leads tO otherideas. Or ideas may result from combining !severalideas. The important rule for brainstorming is to re-serve judgment. No one critically comments on an-other person's idea. Each and every idea is !treatedequally, no matter hOw far-fetelied it may seem. Have'one person record the ideas,and at the end of the Ses-sion the list will be read. Then the group can decidewhich ideas are more interesting, practical or feasibleto incorporate in the scenario. -

43

,

Selected Bibliovaphy: Moral - Social - Ethical Development

A. THEORYBrody. G. H. A social learning explanation of moral deselopment.

Contemporary Educational Psychology. 1978.3(1). 20-26.Gruber. Howard and J. J. Voneche. The tssential Piaget. New York.

Basic Books. 1977..411

Hersh. R. H., Paolitto. D. and J. Reimer. Promoting moral growth:froin Piaget to Kohlberg. New York: Longman. Inc.. 1979.

Kohlberg. Lawrence. Moral Stages and Moralitation: the cogmtive-development approach. In Thomas Lickona (Ed.). Moraldevelopment and behavior. New York: Holt. Rinehart andWinston. 1976.

Stage and sequence: t he cognitive developmental approachto socialitaton. In David A. Goslin (Ed.).llandbook of social-ization theory and research. New York: Rind McNally & Co..1969:

- The child as a moral philosopher. ftchology Today:1968. 7(9). 15-33.

Piaget. Jean. To understand is to invent. New York: Pengdin Books.1976.

The moral judgment of the child. New-York: Free Press.1965.

Smith. M. E. Moral reasoninx its relationship to logical thinking androle taking. Journal of Moral Education. 1978. 8(1). 41-49.

Windm M.. Lambert. N. and. E. Turiel. Moral development andsocialisation. Boston: Allyn Bacon Press. 1978.

B. RESEARCHBlatt. Moshe M. and Lawrence Kohlberg. The effect of classroom

moral discumion upon children's level of moral judgment.Journal of moral education. 1975. 4(2). 129-161.

Brown. Roger and Roger J. Herrnitein. Moral reasoning and conduct.In Psychology. Boston: Little. Brown & Co.. 1978.287-340.

Dell, P. F. and G. J. Junkovic. Moral structure and moral content, theirrelationship to personality. Journal of Youth and Adolescence.1978. 7. 63-74.

Rest. James R. Des elopmental psychology as a guide to value educa-tion: a review of Kohlbcrgian programs'. Review of Educa-tional Research. 1974.44. 241-59.

Tomlinson-Keasey. Carol and Charles B. Keasey. The mediating role ofcognitive des clop ment in moral judgment. Child Development.1974.45. 291-298.

C. EDUCATIONFenton. Edwin. Moral education. the research findings. Social Educa-

tion. April 1976. 189-193.Kelly. A. V. and M. Downey. Moral education: theory and practice.

Scranton PA: Harper and Row. 1973.Kohlberg. Lawrence. The cognitise.developmental approach to moral

education. Phi Delta Kappan. 1975. 56(10). 670-677.Collected papers on moral development aml moral

education. Cambridge. Harvard University Laboratory forHuman Development. 1973.

Kohlberg. Lawrence and Carol Gilligan. Thc adolescent as a philoso-pher. the discovery of sclf in a post-conventional world. Daeda.Ito. Fall 1971.1051-1086.

44,,

Kohlberg. Lawrence and Rochelle Mayer. Development as clic aim ofeducation. Harvard Educational Review. 1972. 42(11). 449-96.,

Kohlberg. Lawrence and Elliot Turicl. Moral development and moraleducation. In G. Lesser (Ea Psychologyandeducational prac-tire. Chicago: Scott Foresman. (1971). 410-465.

Lickona.Thomas:Hirping teachers to become moral educators. Theoryinto Practice. 1978. 17(3). 258-266.

Shari. Pie9i7er(Ed.). Readingsinmoraleducation. Minn.: Winston Press.

Sprinthall. Norman A.and Ralph L. Mosher (Eds.). Value developmentas the aim of education. Schenectady. New York: CharacterResearch Press. 1978.

Values eoncepts and Techniques. National Education Assoc. Distrifiu-tion Center. The Academic Bldg.. Saw Mill Road. West Haven.cr. 06516. 1976. 312 pp.

D. DILEMMA DISCUSSIONS AND SI MULATIONS IN THECLASSROOMBeyer. Barry. Conducting moral discussions in thc classroom. Social

Education. April 1976. 195-202.Blatt, Moshe. Colby. Ann and Betsy Speicher-Dubin. Hypothetical

dilemnras for Use in classroom moral discussions. Cambridge:Harvard Univertity. Moral Education Research Foundatiop.1974.

Boulogne. J. Simulation games in moral education. History and SocialScience Teachers. 1978. 13(3). 202-203.

Fenton. Edwin. Colby Ann and Betsy Spcicher-Dubin. Developingmoral dilemmas for social studies classes. Cambridge: HarvardUniversi1x, Moral Education Research Foundation. 1974.

Galbraith. Ronald E. and Thomas M. Jones. Moral reasoning: ateaching handbook for adopting Kohlberg to the classroom.Anoka. Minn.: Grecnhaven Press. 1976.

Lockwood. Alan. Moral reasoning: the value of life. Public IssuesSeries. Columbus. Ohio: American Education Publications.Education Center. 1972. -

Mattox. Beverly A. Getting it together: dilemmas for the classroombased on Kohlbergk approach. San Diego. CA: Pennant Press,1975.

Selana. Robert. Stages of role-taking and moral development as guidesto social intervention. In Thomas Lickona (Ed.). Man andmorality: New York: Holt. Rinehart and Winston. 1977. '

The relation of role taking to the development of Moraljudgment in children. Child Development. 1971.42, 79=91.

Shaftel. Fannie and George Shand. Role-playing for social values.Englewood Cliffs. N.J.: Prentice Hall. 1967.

E. TEACHER TRAINING KITSFcnt on, Edwin andlawrence Kohlberg. Learning to lead moral discus-

siong a teacher preparation kit. Pleasantville. N.Y.: Guidance. Associates. 1976 (filmstrips and audiorapcs).

Approaches to Teaching Values. Filmstrip, cassette tape. 84 frames.1976. Available from: National Education Assoc.. Audiovisualart...La 1201 Sixteenth Street. N.W.. Washington. D.C. 20036,

Looking at Values. Filmstrip, cassette tape. 103 frames 1976. Availablefrom: National Education Assoc.. Audiovisual Studios.

.

Selected Bibliography For Students

Abouchar, Alan. Transportation, Economics and PublicPolicy, With'Urban Extensions. New York:°11tiley Pub.,1977.

Bendixson, Terrance. Witho4t Wheels: Alternath,es to the'Private Car. Bloomington, Ind.: Indiana UniversityPress, 1975.

Blaisdell, Ruth. Sources of Information in Tratisportation._ Evanston, IlL:-Northwestern-Univ.-Press,-1965.

Firestone, Harvey Samuel. Man on the Move, New York:Putnam Pub., 1967.

Hathesall, Doud C. and Salter, Richard J. Transportationand the Environment, New York: Beckman Pub., 1978.

Hellman, H. Transportation in the World of the Future, NewYork: Lippincott, 1974.

James, Leonard Frank. Following the Frontier of AmericanTransportation in the 19th Century, New York: Har-court, Brace, World, 1968.

.1.

f4Ivan. Energy and Equity, New York: Harper & Ro w,

1974.

Lansing, John B. Transportation and Economic Policy, NewYork: The Free Press, 1966.

Locklin, David' Phillip. Economics of Transportation,°Homewood, IlL: Irwin Pub., 1972.

Manheim, Marvin L. -Transportion Decision-Making, AGuide to Social and Environmental Gonliderations,Washington, D.C.: Transportation Research Board,National Research CofincirReport #156, 1975.

Marston, Edwin H. The bytianiic Environtnent: Woter,Transportation and Energy, Lexinglon, Mass.: XeroxCollege Pub., 1915.

f.asswell, Robert E. Problems of the Careless, New YO' rk:Praeger Pub. Co.,1978.

American Transportation in the Nineteenth Rosenthal, B. "Auto Option: Bus vs. Auto for UrbanCentury, New York: Harcourt, Brace, World, 1965. Travel," Environtrient, 19:18-24, Je, 1977.

1

APPE.NDIX 1

Stages of Moral Development

PR ECONV ENTIONAL LEVELAt this level the child is responsive to cultural rules and labels of good and bad. right and wrong. but interprets thc labels in terms of either the physical or the

hedonistic consequences of action (punishment. rewa rd. excha nge of (a% ors) or in terms of the physical powerof those who enunciate the rules and labeli, The level

is divided into the following two stages:

S1AGE I

The punishment and obedience onenta non. The physical consequences of action determine its goodness or badnessrcgardless of the human rrieining or value of

these consequences. Avoidance of punishment and unquestioning deference to powerarevalued in their own right, not in terms of respect foran underlying moral

order supported by punishment and authority (the burr being stage 4), ,

.STAGE 2

The instrumental relativist orientation. Right action consists of that which instumentally satisifies one's own needs and occasionally the needs of others, Human

relations are viewed in terms as those of the market placc. Elements of fairness. of reciprocity. and of equal shari ng are present. but theyarealwaysinterpreted in a

physical. pragmatic way. Reciprocity is a matter of "you scratch my back and lllscratch yours:" not of loyalty. gratitude. Or justice,

CONVENTIONAL LEVEL

At this level, maintaining the expectations of the individual's family. group or nation isperceived as valuable in its own right. regardless of immediate and obvious^

consequences. The attitude is not only one of conformity to personal expectations and social order but of loyalty to it, of actively maintaining. supponing. and

justifying the order. and of identifying with the persons or group involved in it. At, this level. there are the 1àlkwin twa sfages.

,STAGE 3

he interpersonal concordance of "good boy - nice girl'onemation. Good behavior is that which pleases or helps others and isapproved by them There is much

conformity to sterootypica I images ol what IN majonty or "pa t ural" behavior. Behavior is frequently judged by intention "hc means welrbecomes ileportint for

the first time. One,ea ins approval by being "nice."

STAGE

The law and ruder orientation. There is one= tion toward authority, fixed rules. a nd the maintenance ofsocial order Right behavior consists of doing ones duty,

showing resPeet for authority, and maintaining the given social order for its own sake.' ,

POSTCONVENTIONAL OR PRINCIPLED LEVEL s

At this level. there is a clear effort- to define moral value? and principles which have validity and applicat on apart from theauthority of the groups or persons

holding these principles and apart from the inchvalualS ow n identification with these groups. This level a ,in has two stages, which arc as follows:

STAGE 5 . ,

rhe social-contract legalistic onentaiiun. generally With utilitarian overtones. Right action tcnds to be defined in terms of general individual tights and standards

which have been critically examined and agreed upon by the whole society. There is a clear awareness of the rclaavism of personal values and opinions and a

corresponding emphasis upon procedural rules for reachingconsensus. Aside from whatisoonstitutionally,and democralically agreed- upon. the right isa matter of

personal -values" and "mama.' The result is an emphasis upon the possibility of changing law in terms of rationalcontiderations of social Utility (rather than

freceing it in terms of stage 4 "law and order"). Outside the legal realm, free agreement and contract is the'binding ekment of obligations.

STAGE 6The universal ethical principle onentatron. Right is defined by the decision of conscience in accord with gelkhosen ethical principles appealing to logicalcomprehensiveness. universality. and consistency. These pnnciples are abstract and ethicat(t he Golden Rule, the categorical imperatiseh they arc not concrete

moral ruks like the Ten Commandments: Instead. these are universal principles of justice. of thereciprocity and equality of human rights, and of respect for the

dignity of human beings as individual persons.

LA% rem Kohlberg. Stages of mural dev elopment asa basis for mural educatiun, In C_ M. Beck. B.S. Crittendon.,and E V Sulliva n ( Eds.) Aloral education.

New York: Newman Press, l971, 86401.

4 6

r.

APPENDIX 2

Mass Transit andAppropriate Technology

by Lany Bell

Population pressures,dwindling fossil fuel reserves,and new technologicaldevelopments will make masstransit more and morecompetitive with privateautomobiles in the future. Butfuture transit systems requirea combination of "high" and"low" technologiesautomatedsubways and conventionalsidewalks. In many cities,buses and taxicabs are still thebest public transit alternatives,and newer, more sophisti-cated teihnologies often causemore problems than they solve.

Recent advances in transit systems automated systems wilh numerousshow that modern technology can pro- small stations and no human operators,vide solutions to difficult mechanical but expeiience has shown that crime is aproblems. Yet despite dazzling technical major problem even in systems withachievements, very few of the new sys- many attendants and relatively few sta-terns have actually been implemented to tions to,defend.serve Arfierican cities, and none has Public sentiment can eventtially becaptured a significant share of the public expected to shift in support of major tmtransit market. provements in public transit systems, if

The apparefit lack Of public 'support only, because the rape of urban space tofor new "advanced" transit systems does provide more and more roadways can-not reflert unqualified satisfaction with not continue indefinitely. (Los Angelesmore conventional road and rail trans- has already devoted two-thirds of itsportation. Rather, it reflects the fact land area to streets and parking lots.)that technical priorities have alle'n been And while the great American love af-off-target. they have focused too much\ fair with the automobile will not endupon finding sexy answers to, technicKatron, fuel shortages are bound to forcechallenges and not enough on exploring growing numbers Of motorists to seekneeds and underlying issu,es. For exam-, transportatkm alternatives. In addition,ple, some planners advocate completely fuel shortages can be expected to cowl-

4

sOt,

ei

The San FranciscO Bay Area Rapid Transit (BAH1) system. Expensive.construction delays, chronic breakdowns, maintenance problems,and stringent government regulations have combined to raise the cost of new, automated transpvtation systems like BART, the Washing-ton, 0.C., Metro, and the Morgantown, West Virginia, mass transit program. Hence, for many cities, the wisest choice among transporta-tion modes remains a mix of buses, taxis, and automobiles. PhOto: Bechtel Cot pow ion

47

55

teract urban sprawl in ways which willmake public transit more economical.But to meet the need for improved tran-sit systems, we must shift our emphasisfrom advanced technology to appro-priate technology.

When the U.S interest in mass transitwas awakened in the 1960s, many peo-ple believed that the exciting new tech-nolo&cal powers that had hurled ob-jects mto outer space and put, yeople onthe moon could readily be applied tosolve the transit problems of moderncities. However, recent experiences withthe Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART)system in San Francisco. the personalrapid transit (ND system in Morgan.town, West Virginia. and other at

tempts to market new aerospace- inspired systems have shown that technulogy transfer from outer space to urban space is more difficult than manypeople had imagined. There are two ma-jor differences between pubhc transitsystems and space programs.

New transit systems must competetor funds and acceptance with a wellestablished network of roadways andvehicles that are linked to nearly all as-pects of the soual and economic life ofthe nation. No such competition existsin space.

Space programs need only meet thepriorities of a few c/ecision-makers whousually have very specific objectives.Urban systems must satisfy the needs oflarge, enunriously diverse populations.

48

A cutaway Illustration of Larry Ben's "synchroveyor" public Iransportation system. Syn..chroveyors ire essentially "trains" that have no beginning or end but are arranged in con-tinuous loops. These "endless trains" can be several miles long. The two synchroveyorspictured here run in the same direction, but one Is an express loop that ocerates at i con-stant speed of 30 miles per hour, and the other a local loop that makes regular stops andoperates at variable speeds Of up to 30 miles per hour. FOr short trips, paseingers wouldsimply board their local loop and get off at their destination. On longer trips, they couldswitch to the adjacent express loop. They could make the change when the local synchro-veyor reached its top speed of 30 miles per hour, and was moving at the same speed as theexpress.

and costs and benefits must bear com-parison with other transportation al-ternatives.

"High"lechnology Not Atways BostAdvanced transportation de clop-

ments have tygically emphasized auto:mation and labor-saving techniques.This emphasis reflects the priorities ofthe past, when the U.S. work force wasrelatively small in comparistr to its na-tural resourcesland. water. raw ma-terials, energy. etc.and arguments forreducing labor requirements throughautomation were widely accepted byworkers as well as employers. Now thatnatural resources are shrinking and theU.S. is facing unemployment and, un-der-employment, some influentialgroups are beginning to urge a switchfrom "high" technology (technologythat makes minimal use of human labor)tu "low" or "intermediate" technology.The late British economist E.F. Schu-macher. who inspired the opponents ofhigh technology, argued that the worldneeds a technology that will employ lots

t,

of people, be gentle in its use of scarceresources, and serve the human person,instead of making him the servant of themachine. The ideal technology in agiven situation might often be neitherhigh nor low, but intermediate. In hswell-known b.-",4c Small Is Beautiful,Schumacher argued that intermediatetechnology is "vastly superior to theprimitive technology of bygone ages butat the same time much simpler. cheaper.and freer than the super technology ofthe rich."

Many people (myself includedr be-lieve Appropriate technology can in-clude large-scale and high technologiesas long as human and ecologicalinterests are served. But the tednolo-gies should present clearly demonstrableadvantages over simpler alternatives, Insome urban areas. elevated computet-controlled vehicles. for example, mayprovide clear advantages over moreconventional modes that clog citystreets, are slower due to congestion,use more fossil fuel, and contribute to

and noise pollution. And they may

The Future of Transit in the US.: Some Proj'ections

Immediate Future (present to 1960)Leisure time will continue to in-

crease, as will congestion resultingfrom recreational travel. (H)

Industries will relocate fromlarge northern cities to sunbelt areasin increasing numbers to avoid highwinter energy costs and t axes. (B)

Unemployment, poverty, andcrime rates in large northern citieswill increase. (B)

Public interest in cpnservationand responsible life-styles will con-tinue to grow. (C)

The 55-mph speed limit will con-tinue and people will be encouragedto carpool. and use mass transit sys-tems through widespread educa-tional programs urging energy con-servation. (C)

All fossil fuels will be deregu-lated. IC)

There will be periodic rationingof f uels. (0

Tax incentives will be providedto Increase research efforts in de-veloping al ternative travel methods.(C)

Taxes will be levied on automo-biles by weight and horsepower. (C)

Introduction of free rapid transitwill gain public support and be im-plemented in many heavily popu-lated urban areas. (Downtown Seat-tle already has free bus services.) (H)

All federal rad spending pro-posals will be closely scrutinized andrequire strong local financial sup-port, no major new rail transit sys-tems will be initiated. (B)

The trend toward pollution-freevehicles will continue. (B)

Intermediate Future (19801990)The environmentalist movement

will continue to gain strength in the1980s, although it will diminishslightly by 1995. (H)

By 1985, 10% of the activitiesthat now require travel will be donethrough electronic communication.(H)

There will be a growing trend to-ward labor strikes that tie up masstransit systems. By 1985, bus riderswill experience a 10% increase instrike disruptions of service. (H)

Public transit costs will remainfairly sceady for the next 10 years(but wiii then increase by 20% by1995). (H)

Energy taxes will be imposed. (C)There will be permanent ration-

ing of gas, fuel oil, and gasoline. (C)There will be negative incentives

for Iprge energy users, the oppositeof the present pricing system. (C)

Driving automobiles will be dis-couraged and tolls, for enteringdowntown areas will be imposed. Insome cities, cars will be banned fromdowntown areas altogether. (H)

Lack of adequate highway main-tenance will raise insurance rates andcause more accidents. (H)

There will be rigid enforcementof land use controls to prevint urbansPrawl. (H)

Movement of people and goodswill be nationalized by the mid-1980sand legislation will be enacted to cor-rect union abuses of railroads. (H)

Federal funding of state trans-portation research will become com-monplace and there will be increasesin state and federal regulation oftransportation. (H)

There will be a lessening of con-trols at the city, county, and regionallevels. (H)

Free transit rides will be com-monplace by the late 1980s. (H)

A practical high-density batteryor fuel cell will be developed, makingelectric cars competitive for city usein the early 1980s. (H)

Small electric vehicles will bemass produced. (C)

By 1985, 20% of personal vehi-cles will be largely pollution free. (14)

'6 All eight-cylinder cars will bephased out. (C)

Rel.zble communication systemsto improve coordination of multi-modal tr.:nsit systems will be de-veloped early in ihe 1980s. (H)

Buses and subways will becomeincreasingly unsafe from an opera-tional .standpoint, but transit-relatedcrimes will begin to declineby 1990.( H)

Large cities will clevelop and ex-pand urban_ subway systems, whichwill become economically feasibledue to reduced excavation costs. (B)

Long-Term Future (1990 on)The distances people travel to

work on buses or rapid transit willnearly double in ate next 30 years. (H)

Major alterations of urban landuse- patterns will occur, with pre-mium prices for land near city cen-.ters and rapid transit lines. (C)

Structural, economic changeswill be based on the development ofnew technologies and the decline ofold technologies. (C)

There will be a decline of all in-dustries producing products that usenon-renewable resources as fuel. (C)

Per-capita car ownership will bereduced slightly during the next 30years, but there will be increased useof rental and leased car's. (H)

Demand for rapid Aransit willnearly double by 2005. (H)

Freeways and expressways arelosing their popularity and withmore people turning to public trans-portation, opposition to buildingnew freeways will increase three-foldwithin the next 30 years. (H)

Free-fare transit will be the rulerather than the exception by the1990s. (1-1)

The powerful transportationlobby wql only be one-third as effec-tive by the year 2005. (H)

Measures will be taken to cor,-trol air pollution and within 2b-30years it will be viewed as half theprobleM it is now. (H)

One out of four trips that peoplenow make will be handled by elec-tronic devices such as home-to-storecommunications. (H)

By the mid-1990s, half of all per-sonal vehicles will be pollution-free.Ninety percent will be by 2005. (H)

Six-cylinder cars will be phasedout. (C)

There will be widespreai. relectric cars for intra-city traw,

Dial-a-ride systems 'illvogue and city-to-city raii pservice will measure up to Ustandards by the mid-1990

There will be widespreacelectric trains for inter-city travel. ,C)

Moving sidewalks will be wedwidely by the late 1990s. (H)

After prolonged experimentation, automated highwals will b:built for regular usage during 19S(,-2010. (H)

Most of the projections highlighted inthis chart an- drawn from tw" ,ources:

James Coorner, a rnenibt. FutureStudies gradpate faculty tl tr. qiversityof Houston at Clear Lalv, /1 Texas,published some recommended govern-ment role p'rojections in the August 1977issue of THE FUTURL

Ray Herbert, a staff member on the LosAngeks Times, published some results ofa congress on'transportation and societyin the March 1976 issue of Mass Transitmagazine. The discussions were con-ducted under the direction of the Univq-sity of Southern California's Center, forFutures Research to identify trends andvents which can be expected to have a

significant bearing on society, and inturn, its relationship to transportation.

-The panel experts included businessmen,economists, environmentalist's, educa-tors, transportation and oil company exe-cutives, Jurists, and law enforcement ofcers. In addition, the author, Larry Bell,has included some forecasts of his own.The sources of the forecasts are indicatedby a letter: C Cormier, 4 - Herbert,B Bell.

49

Larry BellLarry Bell is a professor of indus-

trial design at the University of Illi-nois and a visiting professor of archi-tecture at the University of Houston.He is a licensed architect and hasbeen a senior associate with Barton-Aschma n Associates. Inc., a nationalurban and transportation planningfirm. Professor Bell has writtenmany articles about advanced trans-portation, the environinental impactof transportation, and crime preven-tion through environmental design.In addition, he is a cpntributing edi-tor for Industrial Design magazineand writes a regular column aboutdesign management. Some of hismany projects include:

Synchroveyor Urban MassTransportation System: The Syn-

chroveyor is a patented system fortransporting very large numbers ofpeople, conveniently, in heavily pop-ulated areas. The concept utilizesClosed loop conveyors or "endlesstrains" for moving standing and seat-ed passengers at speeds up to 30miles per hour. Passengers board theloops during stop phases that (*curat 40.90 second intervals. Transferbetween adjacent loops is possibleduring regular phases when both"endless trains" are moving at thesame speed. All boarding, transfer,and exiting are accomplished auto-matically by means of transfer decksthat revolve in a "lazy Susan" fash-ion. Continuous safety partitions onboard the loops and along adjacentwalkways,prevent improper transferwhen the system is in operation.

Larry received the nationalALCOA Ventures in Design awardin 1970 for his work on Synchro-veyor.

Chicago Tunnel Project: Larrywas project director 'for a studywhich was jointly undertaken by, theUniversity of Illinois and VoughtAeronautics of Dallas, Texas, to in-vestigate potential uses for 50 milesof abandoned freight tunnels located40 feet below the streets of down-town Chicago. Three decades ago, asmany as 90 electric trains operated inthe small tunnels, distributing freightand mail, and carrying coal to down-town buildings. After Chicagoswitched to oil and gas heat, finan-cial losses forced the system to closedown in 1958.

The multi-disciplinary study groupdetermined that by implementing ahigh-capacity automated transporta-tion system, Chicago's tunnels couldbe returned to productive use andcould compete for freight contractswith the 13,000 trucks that clogdowntown stretts every day. Besidesreducing traffic congestion, the tun-nels would make it profitable to re-cycle huge quantities of paper gen-erated in the central business districtand valued at millions of dollars eachyear. Quite possibly, the networkcould also be used to move people.

Dragonfly Car: Larry Bell andan associate have designed an inex-pensive ($4,000), energy-efficient (40miles per gallon estimated) automo-bile that is versatile, safe, and fun todrive. Engineering for the Dragonflyapplies sophisticated racing tech-nology to provide outstanding sportscar handling. And by sliding or re-,mOving elements of the two-piececanopy, the car can easily be chang-ed from a hatchback sedan to a tour-ing landau, sports convertible, openroadster, or a utility pickup.. Thecars are being manufactured by asmall company in Mayview, Illinois.

'Larry Bell's addressdustrialUrbana, Illinois

s Department of In-'versity of Illinois.

1

Cutaway model of a proposed automated "subway" developed for the ChicagoTun-nel Project. Author Lany Bell directed a studY of the potential uses of 50 miles ofabandoned tunnels beneath the streets of downtown Chicago. The study showthat a carefully designed automated transportation system would allow the tunnelsto be profitably used to transport freight and perhaps even people.

, 50

5 ci

lure some motorists away from cars..However, pro; lents should be cau-tious in their exprxtations and promisesof service -:(ficiencies and increased ri-dership that automated systems will de-liver. Tin_ Morgantown, BART, andWashington, D.C., Metro systems havenot consistently demonstrated travel-time improvements over conventionalbuses for most trips. Service interrup-tions caused by failures of sophisticated"fail-safe" devices have oeen chronicand costly. Automobile use has not sig-nificantly dechned and air purity im-provements have been too small to mea-sure.

While lauding the virtues of auto-mated "personal" service, many ad-vanced transportation advocates havelooked down their noses at transitmodes that are truly personalized. Buseshave been frowned on because they areso primitive as to require drivers. Yetfor cities with populations of less than250,000, buses offer the only practicalpub/ic transit option. The most person-alized of all forms of public transit, thetaxicab, is often made less efficient bymunicipal policies; for example, in NewYork City, where private automobileownership is expensive and subways arecleteriorating. the number of taxis islimited and fares are kept artificiallyhigh by restrictions on group rates. (Ataxicab "medallion,"the right to oper-ate a cabrecently sold for more than aseat on the New York Stock Exchange!)Washington, D.C., uses a zone systemthat makes no allowances for the timelost due to traffic delays, thereby dis-couraging taxi drivers from operatingduring rush-hours when the need isgreatest. Los Angeles is divided intofour separate franchise areas and a cabdfT e.4 who drops off passengers outside

area is not allowed to pick up newjfa'Skengers there but must returp empty.

Scime of the enormous problems_within the commuter rail industry can

P- be traced to the current fascination withsophisticated technology. In 1974, theSt Louis Car Company folded after los-ing heavily on 352 cars built for NewYork and 130 built for the Illinois GulfRailroad. The Pidlman-Standard andRohr car companies together lost over$61 million on contracts with the NewYork and Washington, D.C., transitsystems. Frequently changing technicalrequirements imposed by the govern-ment are one reason for increasinglycomplex transit systems arhl expensiveconstruction delays. The lack of stan-dardized rad system dimensions andequtpment specifications a!No addsheavily to costs since often not enoughcars of one type are ordered to supportefficient production. Ironically, in spiteof the emphasis on technical improve-ments, the advanced trains often oper-ate at a fraction of their potential speedand experience frequent breakdowns

Left: Two adjacent synchroveyor toops shown side by side. When these "endless trains"run at the same speed, passengers may transfer between loops simply by stepping onto atransfer deck, which then revolves and lets them off pn the adjacent loop. Right: Modelshows how passengers board and exit the synchroveyor. A local synchroveyor loop makesregular stops at 40- to 90-second intervals. Passengers get on and off by means of revolvingtransfer decks that connect the synchroveyor to adjacent walkways. Walkways and syn.chroveyors "share" the divided transfer decks, which separate when the synchroveyor begins to moveand are automatically realigned at all stops.

ous=3 VARIABLE SPEED

vim CONSTANT SPEED

A schematic diagram of two alternate layouts for synchroveyor systems. The solid linesindicate express loops that operate at a constant speed of 30 miles per hour. The brokenfines show focal loops that make regular stops, but also reach top speeds of 30 miles perhour so passengers can transfer between local and express loops when both are moving atthe same speed.

due to antiquated and poorly main-tained tracks.

Future OpportunitiesLooking now on the brighter side for

technology buffs, it appears likely thatadvanced transit is not only here tostay, but will gain support and popu-larity in the future. Fuel shortages andmunicipal restrictions on urban auto-mobile use can be expected to causelarge numbers of people to switch topublic transportation in the short-termfuture, expanding available revenues fortechnical and servke improvements. Re

`a

cent advances in deep tunneling ap-proaches can quite possibly make theconstruction of new underground tran-sit systems feasible for urban areaswhich cannot presently afford themAnd longer-Zerm land-use trends will re-sult in tighter clustering of urban resi-dents, thus making more efficient publictransit services possible and offering in-creased revenues for ambitious newtransit developments.

Based upon observed trends, profes-sional intuition and projections offeredby James Coomer and Ray Herbertwhich are highlighted in the accompa-

51

nying chart. I will venture some per-sonal ,predictions about transit-relateddevelopments and priorities that will be-come evident by the turn of the century:

Travel Will Remain Popular: -In thefuture, people will travel as much, if notmore, than they do now, despite elec-tronic communication systems that willmake many business, and.domestic tripsunnecessary and also despite increasingrestrictions on energy consumPtion. Im-portant factors in maintaining or enlarg-ing the amount of travel will be an in-crease in leisure time and the signifi-cantly greater distances that many peo-ple will travel to work.

Importance of Public Transit: Publictransportation will play a much moreimportant role for all income groups asprivate automobiles come to be bannedin many cities, energy is rationed, andhighway maintenance deteriorates.Public transit may eventually be free ofcharge. People will accent both intra-city and inter-city public transit as anormal "free service provided by thegovernment (similar to maintenance ofstreets and the operation of schools).The public will expect and demandclean, comfortable, and efficient ser-vice.

Economic Viability of Public Transit:Legislation to reduce the trend towardsurban sprawl will further ,kencouragepeople to move closer to public transitlines, which will Improve the financialviability of transit operations in two im-portant ways, (I ) As residential land usebecomes denser, increasing numbers of

people will switch from private auto-mobiles to public transit. (2) The gradu-alxurtailment of urban sprawl will re-duce situations where large vehiclesc.arry only a few passengers to remotelocations, thereby enabling transit oper-ators to provide more frequent and pro-fitable service.

Growth of Commuter Rail Systems:Surface rail commuter systems willc.ome to play increasingly importantroles in connecting suburbs and satelliteuties to industry and business centeri.(Only seven U.S. Lines have them now.)Many ol the pew trains will operate effi-uentl y at speeds that reach 130 miles perhour (as do the famous and popularbullet trains used by the Japanese Na-

tional Railways). Tracks will be weldedto reduce noise and maintenance.

Inner-City Rail Subway Develop-ments: Commuter rail subway systemswill be built to connect inner-city areaswith transportation lines leading to thesuburbs. A current University of Illinoisstudy indicates that deep tunneling ap-proaches may often be able to reducesubway excavation and constructioncosts by 300% or more over conven-tional methods, making subway sys-tems feasible for cities which so far havenot been able to afford them. Rail car

52

equipment costs will be reduced throughthe establishment of national designstandards which will make it unneces-sary for manufacturers to develop cid=ferent lines of vehicles tailored to eachcity's specifications.

Light Rail Transit: Light rail transit"street car trains" will become extremelypopUlar in many large and intermediate-Sized cities. Light trains are cleaner,quieter, and use less than a fifth as muchmanpower as buses. They can be length-ened and strengthened tO meet fluctua-ting service demands and networks canbe expanded in stages as communityneeds increase.

Automated Fixed Guideway Transit:In the central business districts of manycities, computer-controlled vehicles willprovide "on-call" service (like horizon-tal elevators) and will be linked togetherto operate as scheduled trains duringrush periods. They will interconnectsecond anci third-story activity centers,following the paths of city streets 'andeven passing silently through buildingsif necessary. However, crime and fearwill be major obstacles blocking publicacceptance of these driverless systemsparticularly those utilizing srnall two tofour-passenger vehiclesin decliningcities and in deteriorating sections ofvital cities. Violent crimes will probablybe less frequent during daytime hoursdue to heavy ridership. which will pro-vide safety in numbers. But operationduring late evening hours may be riskybecause passengers will not be able toshiefd themselves (as can motorists driv-ing private cars) from night-time threats,that occur when stations and streets arerelatively empty.

Buses: Bus:.s will`lose ground to lightrail streetcars for transporting passen-gers in large and moderate-sized citiesbut will continue to be primary modesfor small communities. Buses will alsoremain important to provide charteçservices and wiil be essential for areasthat are too remote, sparsely populated.3r seasonally used to warrant fixed-track or guideway shuttles. Dial-a-busprograms will be common in most citiesto provide special transportation for el-derly and handicapped people, offeringlow-cost or free rides subsidized by fed-eral, state, and citytinies. and the buseswill also be sponsored by civic groups,churches, and municipal organizations.In addition, dial-a-bus programs willbecome common to provide, generaltransportation in rural areas.

Private and Rental Vehicles: Manysmall business firms will begin to manu-facture automobiles and other publicand personal vehicles with am increasedemphasis upon battery and fuel-cellpower sources. These new vehicles, ap-pearing in a wide variety of models andstyles, will capture the public imagina-tions and force Major changes upon

60

large manufacturers. System alterni:tives will include:

Small, electric rental cars for-urbanuse. (Thishas already happened in Am-sterdarri.)

Passive-carriers that can be pulledin .trains behind small, electrically-powered vehicles for low-speed trans-portation in pedestrian ictivity centers.

Two-and three-passenger electriccars with trailers that can be attached totransPort additional passengers andmerchandise.

Easily, removable battery trays thatcan be quickly slipPed out andrecharged while 'an alternate tray is

used.Rental' battery packs provided by

stations along highways and in cities.'Moving Ways:'New tYpes ohnoving,

way systems will carry people ate20,=3Omileiper hour in areas of high pOpula-tion density. One iype of systeM willconsist of one or more trains, each.ar-'ranged in a continuous closed 'loop(without anY first or last vehicle). These"endless trains" may be a mile or Motein circumference, or may be set into."dumbbell" shaped' configurationi. Insome Multiple-loop .networks, pasSen-gers will transfer from one "endlesstrain" to anotheroften while the trainsare still moving at the same speedtomake trips outside their area of origin.Conventional conveyoi-beit "movingsidewalks" will 'be used for short-dis-tance. 1,,w-speed convenience at .air-ports and other active pedestrian cen-ters.

All Levels of TechOology Have aFuture

The transportation industry includesmany rival interest grams, each zea-lously claiming to have:the technologythat "holds the key to the future." Andwhile this contest for scarce develop-ment dollars and public support 'con-tinues. the country as a whole is be-coming more and more divided in atti-tudes towards technology in general.Some people seem to think that hightechnology will save them from havingto modify life-styles that are comfor-table and internationally enviableOthers view high technology as a threatto the environment, to human values,and to mankind's future. The only hopefor a livable future, they argue, lies inlow and intermediate technology.

Is there a single type or level of tech-nology that will save uthom doom anddamnation7 I believe not. The.most ap-propriate technology for each problemwill be found by aiming at balanced, ln-tegrated solutions that consider all rea-sonable options. These options includehigh, intermediate, and low technologyalternatives ranging from exotic walk-ways that move to conventional walk-ways that don't. *

APPENDIX 3

Space Colonies: The High Frontierby Gerard K. O'Neill

An earth-like space colony co ld be orbiting our world by1990, says a Princeton University physicist. The colony's10,000 inhabitants would enjoy green plants, animals,plains, valleYs, hills, and streams. The colonists wouldpayoff the cost of building their extraterrestrial home bymanufacturing satellite solar power stations, which wouldsupply cheap, virtually inexhaustable power to the earth.

During the past decade, a number ofpremises about the basic problems ofthe world have i* ,ime very widely ac-cepted. The mom. important of theseaccepted ideas are

I For the foreseeable future, everysignificant human activity must heconfined to the surface of the earth

2 The material and energyresources of the human race are justthose of our planet.

Any reahsta solutions to ourproblems,of food, population, energy.and materials must be based on a kindof zero.sum game. in which noresources can be obtained by one na-tem or group without being takenfront another.

o

Given those premises, logic hasdriven most observers to the conclu-sion that long.term peace and stabilitycan only be reached by some kind ofsystematic global arrangement, withtight constraints to insure the sharingequahle or otherwiseof thelimited resources available. I find itpersonally shocking that many suchobservers, even those who profess adeep concern for humankind, acceptwith equanimity the need for massivestarvation, war, or disease as necess,ary precursors to the achievement ofsuch a systematic global arrangement.

In my opinion, based on studies car.ned out at Princeton University, thesethree basic premises on which mostdiscussions of the future have been

<4; jiLliAlelatri.eli.a %Mao

desIgn shown above (and also on the cover) might he usedfor the first spaee colony. The mirror floating above the colony reflectssunlight into the ring mirrors below. which reflect it through 100foot*trip windoo* into the colony's interior for light and agriculture. Abovethe core sphere are ommunieations and spacecraft docking facilities.Long rectangle in foregrouml i* a heat radiator. The facility:below the col-ony is the manufacturing area where lunar ore is melted with solarpoio r. lamer entral sphere is the original "construction shack" fur thecolony,

Drawing NASA

61

based are simply wrong. The humanrace stands now on the threshold of anew frontier whose richnos is a thou-sand timeite iiester than thit of thenew western world of 500 years ago.

That frontier can be exploited forall humanity, and its ultimate extentis a land area many thousands ofhmes that of the entire earth. As littleas 10 years ago we lacked the techni-cal capability to exploit that frontier.Now we have that capability, and if wehave the willpower to use it, we cannot only benefit all humanity, but alsospare our threatened planet and per.mit its recovery 'from the ravages ofthe industrial revolution.

The high frontier Which 1 willdescribe is space, but not in the senseof the Apoilo program, a massiveeffort whose mainlasting results werescientific. Nor is it space in the sense ofthe communications and observationsatellites, useful as they are. Least ofall is it space in the sense of,science-fiction. in which !tarsi, planetarY sur-faces were tamed by space-suiteddaredevils. Rather. it is a frontier ofnew lands. located only a few daystravel time away from the earth. andbuilt from materials and energyavailable in space,

Space Colonies:The Basic PlanThe central ideas of space colonize.

tion are:1. To establish a highly-in-

dustrialized, self.maintaining humancommunity in free space, at a locationalong the orbit of the moon called L5,where free solar energy is availablefull time.

2. To construct that community ona short time scale, without dependingon rocket engines any more advancedthan those of the, space shuttle.

3. To reduce the costs greatly by obtainhig neatly all of the constructionmaterials from the surface of theMoon.

4. At the space community, to pro-tess lunar surface raw materials intometals, ceramics, glass, and oxygen forthe construction of additional coin-munities and of products such assatellite solar power stations, Thepower stations would be relocated insynchronous orbit about the earth, tosupply the earth with electrical energyby low-density microwave beams,

5, Throughout the program, to relyonly on those technologies which areavailable at the time, while recognizing and supporting the development ofmore advanced technologies if theirbenefits nre clear,

The two key factors that make spacecolonization an economically soundidea are solAr energy and lunar

53

materials. As everyone knows, the sunis a virtually inexhaustible source ofclean energy. On earth, solar energyuse is hampered by nighttime, byseasonal variation in the day-length,and by clouds; in space, solar energy isalways available, and also much moreintense. The amount of solar energywhich flows unused, in a year, througheach square meter of free space is 10times as much as falls on an equalarea in even the most cloud-free por-tions of Arizona or New Mexico. Asolar-energy installation in space,therefore, is potentially able to oper-ate at a tenth the cost at which it couldoperate on earth.

The cost of space colonization couldbe reduced further by obtaining con-struction materials from the moon. Onearth, we are the "gravitationally dis-advantaged." We are at the bottom ofa gravitational well 4000 miles deep,from which materials can be liftedinto space only at great cost. Theenergy required to bring materialsfrom the moon to free space is only onetwentieth as much as from the earth,and Apollo samples indicate that themoon is a rich source of metals, glass,oxygen, and soil. The moon's lack ofan atmosphere reduces further thecost of transporting lunar materials toorbiting space colonies.

Lunar surface raw materials, wouldbe transported by a launching devicecalled a mass driver; it exists now onlyon paper, but it can be designed andbuilt with complete assurance of suc-cess because it requires no high-strength materials, no high accelera-tions or temperatures, and its princi-ples are fully understood. The massdriver would be a linear electricmotor, forming a thin line severalmiles long, which woold ncceleratesmall 10'-pound vehicies calledbuckets to lunar escape velocity, atwhich time they would release theirpayloads and then return on a sidetrack for reuse. The mass driver wouldbe an efficient machine, driven by asolar-powered or nuclear electricplant.

Building the First ColonyIf we were to start now, with deter-

mination and drive, I believe that thefirst space colony (Island One) couldbe in place, with its productivecapacity benefiting the earth, before1990. This is possible, I must emphas-ize, within the limits of present-day,conventional materials and tech-nology.

A modified space shuttle and achemical space tug would be used totransport basic construction equip-

54

ment, supplies, and 2,000 workmen toa point in space called L5. (L5 is apoint in the moon's orbit equidistantfrom the earth and the moon at whichobjects will remain in a stable orbit,stationary with respect to the moon.)A smaller work force of about 200 peo-ple would establish a lunar outpostwhich would provide 98% of the rawmaterials needed for the constructionof IslanO,One.

The at/4s driver, operating only25% of the time, could lift 500,000tons of material to L5 in the six-yearconstruction time of Island One. Anidentical machine, located in space,could be a very effective reactionmotor for the shifting of heavypayloads in the 100,000-ton range.

Lunar soil is 40% oxygen, 19.2%silicon, 14.3% iron, 8% calcium, 5.9%titanium, 5.6% aluminum, and 4.5%magnesium. The aluminum would bethe primary building material and theoxygen would be used as atmosphereand to fuel rocket engines. Lunar sur-face materials are poor in carbon,nitrogen, and hydrogen, which wouldhave to be brought from earth. For ev-ery ton of hydrogen brought fromearth, nine tons of water could bemade at the colony site, using oxygenfrom the processing of lunar oxides

The removal of half a million tonsof material from the surface of themoon sounds like a large-scale miningoperation, but it is not. The excava-tion left on the moon would be onlyfive meters deep and 200 meters longand wide,,not evenenough to keep onesmall bulldozer occupied for a five-year period.

In the long run, we can use the factthat the asteroids are also a source ofmaterials. The three largest asteroidsalone contain enough materials forthe construction of new lands with atotal area many thousands of times aslarge as that of the earth. Once theasteroidal resources are tapped, weshould have not only metals, glass,and ceramics, but also carbon,nitrogen, and hydrogen. These threeelements, scarce on the moon, arebelieved to be abundant in the type ofasteroid known as carbonaceouschondritic.

Island OneWithin the materials limits of or-

dinary civil engineering practice andwithin an overall mass budget of500,000 tons (about the same as themass of a super-tanker), severaldesigns for the first "island in space"have evolved. All are pressure

Below is an artist's conception of a segment uf the wheel-shaped spacecolony during final stages of construction. Shown is an agricultural areawith a lake and a river. These farming sections are interspersed withthree more-populated areas, all protected by a shield of lunar slag at-tached to tbe outside of the colony shell.

44.\.,,

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Drawing; NASA

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vesselsspherical, cylindrical, ortoroidalcontaining atmosphereswith the same oxygen content as at sealevel on earth and rotating slowly toprovide a gravity as strOng as that ofthe earth. The axis of the structurewould always point toward the sun,the source of all the energy used by thecolony.

The first space community wouldhOuse 10,000 people, 4,000 would beemployed building additional col-onies, while 6,000 would be producingsatellite solar power stations. The in-terior of the colony will be as earth-like as possiblerich in green plants.trees, animals, birds, and the otherdesirable features of attractive regions'on earth. The design would allow aline of sight of at least a half mile, giv-ing the residents a feeling of spacious-ness. The landscape would featureplains, valleys, hills, streams, andlakes. The residential areas mightconsist of small apartment buildingswith big rooms and wide terracesoverlooking fields and groves. Nearthe axis of the structure, gras ity wouldbe much reduced and, consequently.human-powered flight would be easy,sports and ballet could take on a newdimension, and weight would almostdisappear. It seems almost a certaintythat at such a level a person with aserious heart condition could live far

longer than on earth, and that lowgravity could greatly ease many of thehealth problems of advancing age.

atThe space colony would haV'eresidential, agricultural, and in-

dUstrial areas, each with its optimalgravity, temperature, climate,sunlight, and atmosphere. Intensiveagriculture would be, Possible, sincethe day-length and seasonal cyclewould be controllable independentlyfor each crop mid care would be takennot to introduce into the agriculturalareas the insect pests which hamperearth agriculture. Agriculture couldbe efficient and predictable, free of theextremes of crop failure and glutwhich the terrestrial environmentforces on our farmers. Only 111 acreswould be needed to feed all 10,000residents.

Energy Without GuiltEnergy for agriculture would be

used directly in the form of sunlight,Interrupted at will by large, aluminumshades located in zero gravity in spacenear the farming areas: An advancedsewage system would quickly and effiuently turn wastes into pure waterand agricultural chemicals. The air,constantly filtered, would be cleanerthan in any city on earth.

Why Not a Moon dolony?

Gerard O'Neill offers the follow-ing reasons why a colony in space ismore practical than one on the sur-face of the moon:

I. The availability of energy.The moon hes a 14-day night;therefore, there is a seriousproblem of obtaining energy. Con-venient, low-cost solar power is cutoff because of the fact that energystorage over a 14-day period is ex-tremely difficult. On the moon oneis probably forced to rely onnuclear power, so one loses one ofthe principal advantages of work-ing in space,

2. The moon is more expen-sive to get to, To reach the moon,you first have to go into free space,and then go down again.

The analogy that I. use is that inour old-fashioned talk about col-onizing planetary surfaces, we wererather like a small animal whichwas deep down in a hole in theground. The animal climbs at great

cost up to the top of the hole andlooks out and sees all the grass andflowers and sunshine, and walksacross the grass. Then he findsanother hole and climbs down tothe bottom of that hole again. Andin gravitational terms that is ex-actly what we are doing if we gointo free space and then climbdown again to the surface of themoon.

The transport costs to get to themoon are about twice as high asthey are to go out into free space;that mpns that the capitalizationfor productive equipment is up bythe same factor of 2.

3. Control over gravity. Themoon has one-sixth the earth's gra-vity, you have to take it as it comes,and you can never cut it off. Evento get higher gravify than that is alot more complicated and expen-sive on the surface of the moonthan it is in free space, where youcan simply rotate a vessel to getany gravity that you want. 0

Non-polluting light industry wouldprobably be carried on within the liv-ing-habitat, convenient to homes andshops. Heavy industry, though, couldbe located in nearby external nen-rotating factories because of the ad-vantages of zero gravity. The com-bination of zero gravity and breatha-ble atmospheres would permit theeasy assemblywithout cranes, lift-trucks, or other Iiandling equipmentof very large, massive products. Theseproducts could be the components ofnew colonies, radio and opticaltelescopes, large ships for the furtherexploration of the solar system, andpower plants to supply energy for theearth. Within a century, other indus-tries,might be shifted to space coloniesbecause of the abundant, free, pollu-tionless energy supply and the greatei,efficiency made possible by zero ,gra-vity and the vacuum of space.

Process heat for industry, at tem-peratures of up to several thousanddegrees, would be bbtainabie at lowcost,.simply by the use of aluminum-foil mirrors to concentrate the ever-present sunlight. In space, a passivealuminum mirror with, a mass of lessthan a ton and a dimension of about100 meters, could collect and con-centrate, in the course of a year, anamount of solar energy which on earthwould cost over a million dollars atstandard electricity rates.

Electrical energy for a space com-munity could be obtained at low cost,within the limits of present tech-nology, by a system consisting of aconcentrating mirror, a boiler, a con-ventional turbogenerator, and aradiator, discarding waste heat to thecold of outer space. It appears that, inthe environment of a space com-munity, residents could enjoy a percapita usage of energy many timeslarger even than what is now commonin the United States, but could do sowith none of the guilt which is nowconnected with the depletion of an ex-haustible resource.

Shape of Future ColoniesWhile the first space colony will

probably be a torus (a wheel-shapedstructure), later colonies will becylinder-shaped. The main reason forthe change is that the first colony willbe by far the most expensive to pro-duce and the torus will cost less toconstruct. Once the first colony is inplace, the initial investment in equip-ment and materials from earth willnot need to be repeated; consequently,the cost of colony construction willdrop drastically. The cylindricaldesign, considered the most efficient,

55

will then be as easy to build as 'thetorus.

Each colony would consist of a pairof cylinders, connected by cables andspinning in opposite directions so thatthe total system would have almost nospin. Alternating stripes of land andwindow areas would run the length ofthe cylinders; the cylinder wallswould be made of aluminum andglass. Agriculture would be housed inauxiliary capsules connected to thecylinders.

The smallest cylindrical colony, likethe torus, would support 10,000 pet).ple. Each cylinder would be 3,280 feetlong and 328 feet wide. A Model IIcolony would have three times morearea and as many as 100,000 people,and would be less dependent on earthfor resources. Model III, which mightbe built early in the next century,would be so large that a portion of theisland of Bermuda or a section of theCalifornia coast like Carmel could fiteasily within one of its "valleys."Model III residents would begin min-ing the asteroid belt for resources andwould no longer need to import anymaterials from earth.

A Model IV colony consisting of twocylinders, each 19 miles long and fourmiles in diameter, could house severalmillion people comfortably. Us at-mosphere would be deep enough to in-clude blue skies and clouds. Theendcaps of the cylinders could bemodeled into duplicates of a mountainrange such as the Grand Tetons, with8.000-foot peaks. A reflected image ofthe ordinary disc of the sun would bevisible in the sky. and the sun's imagewould move across the sky from dawnto dusk as it does on earth. The landarea of one cylinder could be as largeas 100 square miles.

Eventually. it may be possible tobuild even larger spherical structureswith diameters of up to 12 miles and atotal habitable land area of 250square miles.

The date of realization of Model IVcolonies does not depend on materialsor engineeringthose we havealready. Rather, it depends on abalance between productivity, a risingliving standard, and the economiespossible with automation Under thespace colony conditions of virtuallyunlimited energy and materialsresources, a continually rising real in-come for all colonists is possibleacontinuation rather than the arrest ofthe industrial revolution. Reasonableestimates of 3% per year for the realincome rise, 8% for interest costs, and10% for automation advances put thecrossover date (the date when large

56

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of);

O's

'``Or .3-, ...IR

Irt;

The largest (-Model IV) space colonies, which could be functioning by 2025,will probably consist of twp connected eyiinders, each 19 miles long, fourmiles in diameter, and'containing as much as 100 square miles in totalland area. The most beautiful living areas on earth could be duplicated inthe colonies. The hridge shown here, to give an idea of the dimensions in-volved, is similar in size to the San Francisco Bay Bridge. A Model IV col-ony could hold up to several million people comfortably, but the interiordesign pictured here is intended for only about 200,000 people.

Drawing: NASA

Night is approaching in this Model IV space colony cylinder, which is 19miles long and four miles in diameter. The atmosphere in the large col-onies is deep enough to include blue skies and clouds. A reflected imageof the sun moves across the sky from dawn tQdusk. The amount of lightentering the cylinder is controlled by mirrors outside the stripes of win-dow areas which alternate with the land areas in the colony. The earth-like atmospheric effeeti make the colony seem more spaejous andnatural.

Drawing: NASA

colonies become economically feasi-ble) about 40 to 50 years from nowwell within the lifetimes of most of thepeople who are now alive.

First Colony COuld Coat $100Billion

The best estimate currently availa-ble is that the establishment of IslandOne would cost $100 billion, with apossible variation of $50 billion ineither direction. That figure is 2.5times the cost of Project Apollo and5-15% of the estimated cost of ProjectIndependenc&the U.S. energy self-sufficiency plan. To put the cost of thefirst space colony in perspective, a listof approximate costs for other large-scale engineering projects (in 1975dollars) follows:

a) Panama Canal $2 billionb) Space Shuttle Development $5.8 billionc) Alaska Pipeline $6 billiond) Advanced Lift Vehicle

Development $8.25 billione) Apollo $39 billionI) Super Shuttle Development $45 billiong) Manned Mission to Mars $100 billionh) Project Independence $600.2000 billion

The Apollo project provided trips tothe moon for a total of 12 men, at acost of about three billion dollars perman. In space colonization we are con-sidering, for Island One, a thousandtimes as many people for a long dura-tion rather than for only a few days.With the cost savings outlined earlier,it appears that we can accomplish thisthousand-fold increase at a cost of atmost a few times that of the Apolloproject.

The eventual cost of building thefirst colony will be affected signifi-cantly by the following v'ariables:

1. Frequency and efficiency of crewrotation between the earth and L5,and between the earth and the moon,during the construction period.

2. Extent of resupply needed duringconstruction. This item can vary overa wide range, depending on the at-mospheric composition needed at theconstruction station, and whetherfood is shipped in water-loaded or dryform.

3. Atmospheric composition. Thestructural mass of Island One is pro-portional to the internal atmosphericpressure, but independent of thestrength of artificial gravity producedby rotation. Nitrogen constitutes 79%of earth's atmosphere, but we do notuse it in breathing. To provide anearth-normal amount of nitrogenwould cost us two ways in space col-ony construction, because structuremasses would have to be increased to

contain the higher pressure, andbecause nitrogen would have to be im-ported from the earth. A final choiceof atmospheric mix would be based ona more complete understanding of fireprotection.

With these -factors in mind, threedifferent preliminary cost estimateshave been made for consh'uction of Is-land One. My own spartan estimate,$33 billion, would allow for no crewrotation, an oxygen atmosphere, littleresupply, and small power plants(10Kg/Kw) on the moon and at L5.The NASA Marshall Space rlightCenter made two independent costestimates for the project last year. Theinitial estimate, $200 billion, includeschemical and nuclear tugs, super shut-tle development, orbital bases, an ox-ygen/nitrogen atmosphere, extensivecrew rotation, resupply at 10 poundsper man/day, and power plants at 100Kg/Kw. A later re-estimate, carrying a$140 billion price tag, eliminates un-necessary lift systems, but still in-cludes the oxygen/nitrogen at-mosphere, crew rotation, resupply at

1

10 pounds per man/day, and powerplants at 100 Kg/Kw, The iwo NASAestimates also appear to include a con-tingency factor for problems not yetidentified.Energy for the Earth I

Island One will pay for itself mainlyby manufactur.ing satellite solarpower stations which would supply /the earth with an inexhaultible energysupply. At present, both t e industrial/nations and the underde eloped thirdworld nations are vuln,rable to thethreat of supply cutoff by the MiddleEast oil-producing natidns. The onlypermanent escape from that threatlies in developing an inexhaustibleenergy source with a cost low enoughto make synthetic fuel productioneconomically feasible.

Nuclear power is moderately expen-sive (1.5 cents/KWH) ,and is accom-panied by the problVms of nuclearproliferation and radioactive wastedisposal. Fossil fuels are scarcer now,and intensive strip-mining for coalwill almost inevitably further damagethe environment. Solar energy on the

Asimov Supports Space Colon4ationNoted science writer Isaac

Asimov, in a written statementsubmitted to the House Subcom-mittee on Space Science and Ap-plications in August 1975, said, "Itis my opinion that the importantgoal for space exploration over thenext century is the establishment ofan ecologically independent hutnancolony.on the Moon, or on artificialspace colonies that use the Moon asa quarry for raw materials. Thereasons for this follow:

(1) Observatories beyondEarth's atmosphere can lead to abetter knowledge of 'the Universeand the laws of nature governingitwith unpredictable but surelygreat applications to the humanway of life.

(2) The presence of infiniteamounts of hard vacuum, of lowtemperatures, of high solar radia-tion, shoald make possible in-dustrial act;vities of types not prac-tical on Ern.a, leading to unpredic-table hut surely great advances intechnology.

(3) The establishment of a work-ing colony, ecologically indepen-dent, on either the Moon or in anartificial structure in space will re-quire a society fundamentallydifferent from our owna societythat can live in an engineered en-vironment under conditions of

strict recycling and i:nineral waste.Since this is precisely the sort ofcondition towasillphich Terrestrial

/life is tending (barring acatastrophe that deitroys our tech-nology altogether), the colonieswill serve as schools to Earth, asexperiments in living from whichwe may profit immensely.

(4) The establishment of a col-ony will be difficult enough and ex-pensive enough to require aglobal=rather than a nationaleffort. The effort will be greatenough to supplY mankind with acommon goal and a common senseof pride that Indy transcend localchauvinism% and thus encouragethe growth of la global politicalcommunityand indeed serve as asubstitute for the emotional cathar-sis of war.

(5) Lunar or:space colonists, liv-ing in engineered worlds, on the in-si d e, w ould be more psy-chologically.adapted to life in aspaceship dndertaking longvoyages, so it will be they ratherthan Earthman by whom the rest ofthe Solar system (and eventuallythe stars perhaps) will be explored.

(6) Colo+ in space generallywill supply a chance for growth andadventure after Earth itself has,perforce, adopted a no-growthphilosophyX 0

6557

earth is an unreliable source, suitablefor daytime peak loads in theAmerican southwest, but not clearlycompetitive in most applications atthe present time,.

For several years, design groupe atBoeing Aircraft and at si Tthur D. Lit-tle, Inc., have studied the concept oflocating large solar power stations ingeosynchronous orbitwhere sunlightis available 99% of the timeto con-vert solar energy to electricity andbeam it by microwaves to earth, whereit would be reconverted to ordinaryelectricity. Already, an overalltransmission efficiency of 54% hasbeen demonstrated in tests. The mainstumbling block has been the problemof lift costs. Construction of thesatellite solar power station (SSPS)units at the space colony, using lunarmaterials to avoid the high lift costs

f rfm earth, would make solar energy

c mpetitive with other energy eourceseven from the start, accordire to mycalculations. Eventually, solar electricpower rates would be much lowerthan those of coal-fired or nuclearpower plants. No thermal, chemicai,or radioactive pollution would be cre-ated, and the microwave intensitywould not exceed official exposurelimits.

If development of the space coloniesproceeds on the fastest possible time-scale (with intensive design beginningthis year and major construction ofthe first colony beginning in 1982), theprogram coUld pay back all of thetotal investment (plus 10% interest)in 24 years. The total investment costincludes the development and con-struction cost of the first colony; thecost of lifting the materials neededfrom the earth for subsequent coloniesand foreunecolony-built SSPS compo-nenta; a payment in dollars on earthof $10,000 per person/year to everycolonist, representing that portion ofsalaries convertible to goods and ser-,.vices on earth (for subsequent use onvisits or, if desired, on retirement);and a carrying charge of 10% intereston the total investment (outstandingprincipal) in every year of theprogram. The economic output of theprogram is measured in the sale ofsolar power at initial rates of 1,.5 centsper Kilowatt-hour, gradually drop-ping to one cent per Eilowatt-hour:

To produce the necessary number ofpower satellites within this time-scale,a total, work force of 100,000-200,000people would be required. In ourcalculations, we assumed that the con-struction of the first colony would takesix years; thereafter, each colonycould replicate itself in Iwo years.

58

Each colony would produce two SSPSunits per year. The productivhy im-plied, 13-25 tons/person-year, is shin-lar to that of heavy industry on earth.New colony construction would behalted after the 16th colony, due tomarket saturation. In this scenario,the benefit/cost ratio would be 2.7.

By the 11th year of the program(1993 on the fastest possible time-scale), the energy flowing to the powergrids on earth from L5-built SSPSunits could exceed the peak flow rateof the Alaska pipeline. By the 13thyear, the SSPS plants could fill the en-tire market for new generator capacityin the U.S. By year 17, the total energyprovided could exceed the total esti-mated capacity of the entire Alaska'North Slope oil field. Given the rapidgrowth of the manufacturing capacityand the possibility of power costreductions, true "energy indepen-dence" for the nations taking part inthe L5 project could occur before theyear 2000, with a shift to production ofsynthetic fuels.

Cooperative MultinationalProgram Is Desirable

There are, in my opinion, at leastfive or six nations or groups of nations

"The human race standsnow on the threshold of

a new frontier whoserichness is a thousand

times greater than thatof the new western world

of 500 years ago."

6 t,

Author Gerard O'Neill, Professorof Physics at Princeton University,hopes that space colonisation willbe a cooperative inteinatkmalprogram, bringing world peace astep closer.

which possess the technical andeconomic ability to carry out the con-struction of Island One on their own.In my own view, I would like to see acooperative multinational programformed, based on participation by allinterested nations. It would be in theinterest not only of the energy-con-suming industrial nations, but also ofthe oil-producing nations to take partin the program, since it would result ina drastic drop in the market value ofMiddle Eastern oil before the end ofthis century. A cooperative interna-tional program could have a tealstabilizing effect on world tensiens.

It would be naive to assume that thebenefits of space colonization will beinitially shared equitably among all ofhumanity, but the resources of spaceare so great that those who are first toexploit them can well afford to pro-vide the initial boost that will allbwtheir less advantaged fellow humansto share the wealth. Suddenly given anew world market of several hundredbillion dollars per year, the first groupof nations to build space manufactur-ing facilities could easily divest somefraction of the new profits to providinglow-cost energy to nations poor inmineral resources, and to assisting un-derdeveloped nations by providingthem with initial space colonies elftheir own. The resources of space areso great that even thoee nations whichachieve the ability to use them onlyafter a long delay will still find anabundance remaining. It should altobe emphasized that the provision of

unlimited low-cost energy to thedeveloping -natIons will probably bethe most effective contribution wecould make to solving the world's foodproblem, because the cost of chemicalsfor high-yield agriculture is almost en-tirely the cost of energy for their pro-duction.

If we use our intelligence and ourconcern for our fellow human beingsin this way, we can, _without anysacrifice on our own part, make thenext decades a time not of despair, butof fulfilled hope, of excitement, and ofnew opportunity..

Puhl ic Response Is FavorableThe evidence of the past year indi-

cates that. in terms of public response,space colonization may become aphenomenon at least as powerful asthe environmental movement Sincethe first small, informal conference inMay, 1974, a rapidly increasing num-ber of articles about it have appearedin newspapers and magazines, and allhave been quite favorable. Radio andtelevision coverage has also increasedrapidly.

A volunteer organization in Tucson.Arizona, recently spent an intensiveweek trying to get information to peo-ple about the space project, and twoweeks later carried out a random sem-pling telephone survey. They reportthat 45% of the people in that city nowknow about this project, and of thosewho know about it, two-thirds of themare already in favor of it.

The mail that I getfrom many na-tions around the world, as well as theUnited Statesruns 100-to-I in favorof the project. Also, encouragingly,less than 1% of all mail is in any wayirrational. Many of the correspon-dents have offered volunteer help, andare actively working at the presenttime in support of the space coloniza-tion concept. The letters express thefollowing reasons why this concept, incontrast to all other space options nowextant, is receiving such broad sup-port:

I. It is a right-now possibility. Itcould be realized within the immedi-ate future.

2. In contrast to the elitism of theApollo project or a manned mission toMars, it offers the possibility of directpersonal participation by large num-bers of ordinary people. Many of thecorrespondents, from hard-hat con-struction workers to highly-educatedprofessional people, see themselves asprospective colonists.

3. In Ontrast to such technical op-tions as the supersonic transport.

"The evidence uf thepast year indicates that,

in terms of publicresponse, space

colonization maybecome a phenomenonat least as powerfi ,.! as

the environmentalmovement."

"By 2150, there could bemore people living in

space than on earth . . .

Earth might servemainly as a tourist

attractiona, carefullypreserved monument to

man's origin."

6

nuclear power, or the strip-mining ofcoal, it is seen as offering thepossibility of satisfying real needswhile preserving rather than furtherburdening the environment.

4. It is seen as opening a new fron-tier, challenging the best that is in usin terms of technical:ability, personalmotivation and the desire for humanfreedom. Many gorrespondents referto space colonization by analogy to thedisco-very of the New World or to thesettlement a century ago of theAmerican frontier. .

Colonies Offer Freedom andDiversity

By about the year 2018, emigrationto better land, better living conditions,better job opportunities, 'greaterfreedom of choice and opportunity insmall-seale, eventually' independentcommunities could become a viableoption for more -people than thepopulatian increase rate. The culturaldiversity will be enormous (in exactcontrast, r think, to the way things aregoing on earth at the present time). By2150, there could be more people liv-ing in space than on earth. The reduc-tion of population pressures on earth,left possibly with only a few billionpeople, would allow the planet torecover from the ravages of the in-dustrial revolution. Earth might servemainly as a tourist attractionacarefully preserved monument t oman's origin. At the same time, tour-ism and trade among the colonieswould be practical and desirable, in-suring the survival and growth of thecolonies.

From the vantage point of severaldecades in the future. I believe thatour children will judge the most im-portant benefits of space colonizationto have been not physical or economic,but the opening of new human op-tions, the possibility of a new degree offreedom, not only for the human body,but much more important, for diehuman spirit and sense of aspiration.

0

Gerard O'Neill, Professor of Physics atPrinceton University, Is noted for his workin high.energy experimental particlephysics. He is the leading proponent of thespace colonization concept, which he origi-nated in 1969. His address is PhysicsDepartment, Box 708, Princeton University,Princeton, New Jersey 08540. The foregoingarticle is bated on the author's presenta-tion to the World Future Society's SecondGeneral Assembly in June, 1975, and on histeslimony before Congress on July 23, 1975.

59

a

'PP

Interest in Space Colonies Rises

During the past year, GerardO'Neill's space colonization con-cept has captured the imaginationof a rapidly increasing number ofpeople. He reports that he getsmore mail than he can answer, and99% of the letters are favorable.

Last July, O'Neill's testimonyalso impressed the Subcommitteeon Space Science and Applicationsof the U.S. House of Representa-tiv es. Near the end of thetestimony, Subcommittee Chair-man Don Fuqua (a FloridaDemocrat) said of the space col-onization project, "It's somethingthat will happen, and even thoughit kind of boggles the mind at thepresent time, it is not beyond therealm of possibility. I hopel live tosee it." The Subcommittee con- -eluded, in its official report, thatorbital colonies were "potentiallyfeasible" and deserving of close ex-amination. It also stated that "cepts and methods for the spa..e.based generation of electricity,using energy from the sun, shouldbe developed and demonstrated as

'a significant contribution to solu-tion of the fossil fuel dilemma."Finally, the SubcommitMe gave ithsupport to "an expanded spaceprogram in FY 1977-1978, at least25% greater than current funding,to undertake new apace in itia-tiveg."e Fuqua later said that "bold new space programs, such asthe possibility of space coloniza-tion, based on realistic appraisalsof potential space progress, deserveserious consideration. It is ap-parent that the imagination, skill,and technorogy exists to expand theutilization and exploration ofspace."

Astronomer Carl Sagan, teetify-in g before the subcbmmittee,declared that "our technology iscapable of earaordinary new ven-tures in space, one of which is thespace city idea,/ which 'GerardO'Neill h'as aescribed to you.That's an extremely expensive un-dertaking, but' it seems to mehistorically of the greatest signifi-cance. The engineering aspects of itas far as I can tell are perfectly wellworked. out by O'Neill's study

W.,

group. It is practicaL":0'Noill saysthat Wernher von Braun has also

- expressed interest' in his project.The Apace colonY idea also wai

examined last year by 28 physicaleild social scientists participatingin the NASAIASEE/StanfordUniversity 1975 Summer Study atthe Ames Research Center inMountain View, California. The10-week study was iponsored byNASA's Ames Research' Center,Stanford University, and theAmerican Society foe,. EngineerinsEducation (ASEE). The, gioupfound no insurmountable problemsthat would proventrsuccessful'spacecolonization mixt recommended"that the United State% *Pi* incooperation with.other .nations,take specific steps toward the goalof spacetcolonization."

A Princeton Conference on SpaceManufecturing Facilities washosted' by O'Neill 'last May. TheProceedings will bapublisfied laterthis yeir.

A ,number of technical paperssupilorting the space colOny ideahave appeared recently, including"R & D Requirements for InitialSpace.Colonization" by T. A. Hep-penheimer and Mark 'Hopkins

(both of the Summer Study) and"Space Production of SatelliteSolar Power Stations," an analysisby William Agosto, a projectengineer with the Microwave Semi-conductor Corporation, Somerset,New Jersey.

University courses are beginningto be offered dealing with variousaspects of space colonization.Magoroh Maruyama of PortlandState University is teaching acourse on Extraterrestrial Com-. inunity Systems, which exploresnew cultural options; possible psy-chological and social prdblems;and alternative physical, architec-tural, environmental, and socialdesigns. Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology now has an under-graduate course in space systemsengineering, emphasizing space col-onies. Beginning this May, futuristDennis Livingston will teach acourse at Rensselaer PolytechnicInstitute in Troy, New York, called"Space Colonies,: A TechnologyAssessinent." The course will covertechnical, economic, moral, politi-cal, and social aspecte of space col-onies.

The American Institute 6f Aero-nautics and Astronautics is lobby-

6o:

ing for more congressional supportfor O'Neill's project, and he was akeynote speaker during the In-stitute' s Annual Meeting in'Washington, D.C., on January 30.

For those interested in keepinginformed about the latest develop-ments in OWeill's space coloniza-tion efforts, several newsletters arenow available.

Gerard O'Neill puts out his ownNewsletter on Space Colonizationperiodically. The newsletter sum-marizes recent work, lists the latestmagazine articles and books deal-ing with space colonies, lists lec-tures scheduled on the subject,reports on the status of the spacecolony group at Princeton Univer-sity, and advises of future plans.The newsletter is free. Simply writeto Pro(easor Gerard K. O'Neill,Physics Department, PrincetonUniversity, P.O. Box 708, Prin-ceton, New Jersey 08540.

14.5 News i§ a monthly newsletterproduced by the L.5 Society, agroup formed recently "to educatethe ptiblic about the benefits ofspace communities and manufac-turing facilities, to serve as a clear-ing house for information end newsin thiefast developing area, and to

raise funds to support work on .tthese concepts where public mormyis not available or is inappropri-ate." L.5 News contains news arti-cles; listings of courses, lectures,publications, and conferences; andletters. Membership in the L-5Society costs $20 (regular) or $10(student), Arch should be sent to

11-5 Society, 1620 North ParkAvenue, Tucson, Arizona 95719.

Another newslette whichreports on O'Neill's ideas occa-sionally (as well as other'spa'ce con-cepts) is the EARTHISPACENewsletter. EARTH/SPACEdescribes. itself as a commercialspace venture dedicated to freespace enterprise and "focusing onmarket .development and methodsof making space profitable to the,commercial user." TheEA RTHISPACE Newsletter isavailable for $5 per year fromEARTH/SPACE, 2319 Sierra, PaloAlto, California 94303.

O'Neill received a small grantfrom NASA in 1975, but he believesthat additional funding this year ofbetween 0.5 and 1.0 million dollarsis needid for basic research if theproject is to continue to develop atthe fastest possible rate.

APPENDIX 4

Space Colonization:An invitation to Disaster?by Paul L. Csonka

A large-scale space colonizatio9 program now would probably leadto widespread oppression, violence, and global disaster, argues a sci-entist. He believes that only a small, strictly supervised number ofspace settlements should be permitted until humanity becomes lessviolent and forms a world government capable of policing space.

The dream ot leaving the Earth andreaching the stars is probably as old a%the human race It certainly predates theinvention of writing. as attested by anuent legends and mythologies Throughthe millennia. the un1ep f extraterrestrial life and travel has, proved to 'be arich source ot entertainment and inspiratijin It also has been quite harmles,

That state of attairs ha% changed Inroent years. Largely a% a 'result of theinteresting analysis Of Princeton physiust Gerard K ONoll and he, (4-workers in the United States and otherscientists abroad it- has become clearthat we could now start huge-scalecolonization of spate if we wished to doso Re dream of per manently leavingthe Unit could become a roihty Andtherein hes the danger

Before presenting my arguments I

must emp1iasi2., that I am not againstspthe olos imam I hope that it is sucless! Lilly undertaken ,cime day Butmankind ,hould not plunge into sui h anadventure before inch t ions are ripe torIt and belive that at the present timethey are not.

It is not our technological MaturitYwhich I doubt In tact I have high regard tor the work of 0"Nc dl and his collaboratoss who have prewnted i cunv inking argument that our industrialcapacity LOUIS] ( pe with the task ofcolonization Thor cakulations haveproved to be realistic although OCCasionallv on the optImistsc mile Myobjections are of a social and politicalnature Under the «mditions prevailingtoday immediate large-scale space colo-nization is hkely to have ehsastrous con-sequences for the human race

The Proposed Program forSpace Colonization

I lisw could one commence large-scalespace colonizatron tod.17? O'Neill sug-gests a multi-stage process. In the firststage. a 'Model 1" spact colony would

The first space colony could look like agiant wheel floahng in space. The burn.ished disc that hangs suspended over the-

heel is-a floating mirror panel that reflectssunlight down pnto slanted panels and intoshields that screen out cosmic raysPhoto NASA

be constructed, capable of supportingabout 10,000 people inside a space cylmder about a mile long and with aradius of several hundred feet Thu.mild then serve as a base to construct

larger "Model 2 space cdony withabout 100.000-200.'000 people and aylindrwal volumC about 30 times larger

than tor the previous model That. aiturn, coald be used to construct Model3. which would be several nules wideand long and house about a million people Even larger models might wnlelater

Various , would be estabhshed in the succesi% rn >del% The production costs in Some of these industrieswould be less than in industrieson the Earth, for example high strengthsingle cry stals might be iipy manufactured in zero gravity high-v acuurnenvironment. and solar enogy wouldbe more plentiful In thi's way Model 1ou Id partly pay tor itself Aarting int

mediately atter It become% operational,thus reducing the otherwise exorbitant«mstruction costs of Model 2, etc Thetechnology to a(complish this multi-stage 1.0 n%truttion prolot ynly partlyavailable today the rest would have' tobe developed along the way

Accordmg to 0 Noll; Modd 1 couhlbe operational by 1988. Model 2 by

---Author Paull. Csonf5a warns that chsastercould result If humanity plunges into large.scale space colonization in the near future.

1996 Model 3 by 2002 and startingabout the year 2014 the work force of ai parent"' colony could balk) a "dlugh-

. ,ter colony within 6 years, relying en.tirely on Its own resources plus rawmaterials found in outer Joace. with noassistance from the Earth. This doublingtime of six years is tki be compared withthe present doubling time of Ear th spopulation. 35 years. Accordingly.from about the year 2050. the number'k if places av.illable in the space colonwswould increase so fast that they couldabsorb the population increase not onlyon the Earth but also in the coknues,Thereaf ter. population density luuld bedecreased everywhere The price of intplemenfing this program would be

around five bilhon dollars per year un1972 1.1ollars). (For more on spacecol)gnes. see "Space Colonies The HighFrontier by Gerard O'Neill in THEFUTURAST, February 1976. pp 25-33

The Arguments for ColonizationWhy should humanity embark on this

proposed gigantic expansion project'According to O'Nedl and his co-workers. there are several arguments sr.favor of such a plan..I will try ko give afair summary of these arguments as pre-sented by al\kill in Phs,sics Today(SepteMber. 1974s. iThe ordenng IS

mine 1I Cultural diversity will flourish.Neill says that the technical imper

atives of this kind of migration of peo-ple and Indust ry into space are likely toencourage self sufficiency. small scaleAuvernmental units, cultural diversityand a high degree of independence. .

communit y of 20.000 people, eager topreserve sts own culture and language.can even remain largely isolated Freediverse social expedmentations (*oddthrive in such a protected. self-sufficientenvironment, (For such reasons manyyoung Maoists are now enthusiasticallyin favor of space colonization.)

2. Good "land" will be pkntiful. "Thehistory of the last 30 years suggests thatwarfare in the nuckar age is strongly.although not wholly. motivated by tertriton& conflictsbattles over limited.nonextendable pieces of land." O'Neillmaintains The corstruction of newliving spaces may elinnnate the cause of-such conflicts.

Furthermore, one may be hopeful t hatcoloAtzation will be peaceful We already havv a treaty banning nuclearweapons from space, and t1.0 coloniescan obtain oll the energy they could ever

61

need from clean solar power, so thattemptations presented by nuclear reac-tor by-products need not exist in thespace communities

3. Population pressures on Earth canbe alleviated. Atter about the year 2050.the number of ,new space colonies builtper year would be high enough to de-

crease the population density of Earthand Ow ,pa,t. _01,-enn.-!; to predeterminedecologically sound levels even if the

growth rate ot the population persistedundiminished at its present value of

Q8'"c, per year This expansion couldk ontInue while there is space to be colo-nized in the Solar System ' at least a20,000-told increase ot the populationcould be so accommodated without increasing the population dei,sity At thepresent rate that would take about 500years during which time we wouldhopefully learn to slow down popula-tion growth or initiate space travel todistant stars 1 here are enough materi-als tor us to use It we are so prodigalas to run through the entire material otthe asteroid belt in the next 500 years,we can even gain another 500 years byusing up the moons ot the outerplanets

4 , Industrial pollution on Earthcould be greatly reduced. It work is be-gun soon, nearly all our industrial ac-tivity could be moved away from theEarth's fragile biosphere within less thana century from now, declares O'Neill.In addition, bird and animal speciesthat are endangered on Earth by agricul-tural development and industrial chemi-cal residues may find havens for growthin the space colonies, where insecticidesare unnecmary . and Industry hasunlimited energy for recycling."

5 The quality of life would be high.The space settlements would offer "new

Model of a space colony's manulacturingfacility. where material mined from the lunar surface would be processed into aluminum, glass, and other products. The availa-bility of the low-temperature, high-vacuum,zero-gravity environment of space would al-so be very favorable for certain types of in-dustries, such as the growth of high-strength single crystals. Photo NASA

62

&rm.

.ealfr,Ftjt..

4druir 4.0,ade.

A small transportation vehicle waits for lift-of f from a mining town on the moon. Lunar ma-terials will be the prime source of metals and oxygen for proposed space colonies. At rightare mines and living quarters. The smaller tube bins with glass windows are agriculturesheds where food is grown. At left is magnetic track of accelerator which sends lunar ma-

Serials hurtling into space Photo:NASA

habitats far more comfortabie . . . andattractive than is most of the Earth,"O'Neill suggests. In addition, using thematter-and energy available in space tocolonize and build, we can achieve greatproductivim of food and materialgoods." E5dmples of this type were citedearlier, favorable environment for largesingle-crystal growth is difficult toachieve on the Earth, but could be eas-ily accomplished in space colonies, solarcollectors, placed in orbit, could gathersolar radiation for conversion to electrical energy (which in turn may be radi-ated to Earth in the form of micro-waves).

(During the last year or so. publica-tions dealing with space colonizationhave tended to stress the fifth item onour list of expected benefits. However.the other tour have noc :leen repudiatedor retracted, in fact, they are still beingquoted. and by now they have been re-peatedly enumerated by the news me-dia.)

These arguments suggest that weshould undertake space colonizationsoon, and on a large scale. Inc1e...71. un-less we do so, ecological damage to theEarth s biosphere would no longer be re-versible, birds and fish which mighthave found Sanctuaries in space habitatswould become extinct, the human popu-lation density would reach catastrophiclevels, and a pathologically overpopu-lated Earth could not provide the neces-sary financial resources and supplies tosustain a major colonization effort.Population limitation would then bebrought about by other means. Becauseof the exponential growth rates, even asmall de:1y would mean large devia-

tions from the calculated values. Toavoid such a delay, we have to start co-lonization right now. And if this werethe whole story, we would be well ad-vised to do so.

Critique of the PrAposed ProgramBut this is not the whole story. An-

other assumption implicit ii the abovearguments is that human behavior ismostly rational and generous in the

sense that it furthers the best interestsof the entire human ra'ce. This assump-tion is unjustified, as any student of his-tory well knows. Those on whose deci-sions the future of our race dependsmust face the consequences of human ir-rationality and selfishness; it would beirresponsible to do otherwise At thevery least, we must try to foresee all dif-ficulties which we may encounterand

' make sure that we know how to avoidthem before committing humanity tosuch an irreversible course of action asspace colonization.

Some enthusiasts take the positionthat space colonization would be a newventure, so we,can never know where itwill lead us. I reject this argument, It istrue that so far humanity has not builtlarge spaceships, colonized outer space,or lived in isolated space communitiesfor any appreciable length of time Butmankind has built sea-going vessels, co-lonized distant lands, and lived in moreor less isolated communities for centu-ries. Our ample experience in these un-dertakings must be considered as an in-dication of the kinds of obstacles we arelikely to encounter.

In this short article my aim is to callattention to some of the social and poli-

tical problems to be expected on the basis of historical analogy I plan to convince yOu that we are in no positionnow to handle the difficulties whichwould emerge. I intend to demonstratethat in view of the many unsolvableproblems, theabove listed five benefitsexpected from space colonization arelargely dlusory Furthermore. I will argue that not only is the proposed spacecolonization program unlikely to alle-viate our difficulties, but it will mei.,tably amplityathem and move us closerto general disaster.

Let us start our argument by examining one by one the previously listedfive expected benefits.

An invitation to Tyranny1. Diversity. How realistic is the hope

that space colonization would indeedencourage small scale governmentunits, a high degree of independence.and f ree diverse social experimentation?

If left to themselves, what kind of so-cial structure would the spaceships likely develop? The most reasonable assumption is that they will develop alongthe same lines as small self -containedsocial units in the past have tended todo Prubably the simplest example 44such units is a ship on the high seas.What societies ev 9Ived on sea-faringvessels of the past? All of us have heardabout pirate ships roaming the highseas, each under the control of its ty-rannical captain. But how many shipswere mhabited by a democratic com-munity of gentle people who mindedtheir own business, did harm to no one,and made their living happily fishingon the high seas under the bright cleartropical sun? None that I know of.More generally, how many peaceful,democratic, pluralistic communitieshave evolved since sophisticated wea-ponry became possible with the dis-covery of ways to forge copper? Thehistory of Europe shows that whenevercentral authority has weakened, coun-tries have tended, to disintegrate, andsmaller, geographically determinedwins have emerged. each ruled by astrong man reigning over the localpopulationbut also defending itagainst exploitation by outsiders. Withthe notable exception of certain Swisscantons and some cities, essentially allregional governments were autocraticuntil quite ,recently. This phenomenonis not limited to Europe: the experienceof Asia. North Africa and CentralAmerica is similar. Nor is this tendencylimited to the past. Hierarchies and rul-

About the AuthorAuthor Paul L. Csonka, a physicist, is direc-tor of the Institute of Theoretical Science,University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon97403.

ing diques crystallizing around domi-nant personalities still appear when theopportunity arises, children on a play-ground unattended by adults, or adoles-,cent gangs in and out of school, consti-tute prime examples of this phenome-non.

These everyday observations are oflimited scope, but, in conjunction with.our brief historical analysis, they showa general pattern and cause one to woi't-der if such behavior might be geneticallypreferred. The formation of hierarchiesdefinitely has survival value for group-animals living in the wild because itinsures group foimation around the4trongest leaders. It seems unlikely thatbehavior that is common to almost allhigher animal societies would be totallyabsent in human society. Whether thereason is genetic or otherwise, the factremains that, in the cultures prevailingfrom ancient times until today, there i5a strong tendency toward authoritarianhierarchies.

Nowadays the tendency to form hier-archies Seems to have lost much of itsprimeval value, it is unpleasant fortKuse who are relegated to the lowerechelons and it also appears to be harm-ful to the leaders who occupy the higherlevels. Perceiving this change. peoplein many societies have strived to makethe transition to democracy, but only asmall minority of countries have suc-ceeded in achieving an acceptable ap-proximation of It. Despite the many set-backs, there are still those who hopethat democracy will prove to be viablein the long run and perhaps some dayeven come to be accepted by manymore countries. But even where demo-cratic societies exist, they seem to be incon.tant danger of:al-Eng toward amore autocratic sylem The reverse

movement happens only as a result oithe spectacular social changes usuallyreferred to as revolutions, and more of-ten than not, even these c nes merelygenerate another autocratic systemreplacing the old one.

In view of the foregoing, we must as-sume that most isolated space commun-ities will. almost certainly, eveniiiAllydevelop some non-democratic form of

So /

Exterior of a space colony as seen throughan astronaut's helmet. At man's present level of development, believes author Csonka,uncontrolled proliferation of independentspace colonies probably would producemostly autocratic space communities, andspace pirates would roam the solar system..Photo NASA

A Dialogue on Space ColonizationIn-recent Issues. THE FUTURIST

has published several articles whichlook favorably upon the idea oflarge-scale space colonization in thenear future "Space Colonies: TheHigh hontier by Gerard K. O'Neillappeared in the February 1976 issueand 'Designing a Space Communi-ty" by Magorob Maruyama ap-peared in October 1976.

This article draws attention tosome possible drawbacks of large-scale space colonization now.Csonka, a physicist. anticipates thatsome may tend to dismiss his argu-ments as "unscientific." because heis "neither a:historian nor a politicalscientist." However, he contends that

his presentation is justified because"the choices which will have to bemIde will affect the future of all ofus." In addition, "at present. thereis no generally accepted practicablescientific method in the social sci-ences which could prove wrong" hisopinions. he says. In such cases, ex-pertise must be supplemented byother considerations, he concludes."There is clearly room for opinion."

Csonka believes that the subjectof space colonization is such an im-portant one that a dialogue must bestarted in which all of the possibleramifications for society arebrought out into thAppen before acommitment is made.

.L

63

gove, nment subject to a relatively smallruling group indulging (consciously orsubconsciously) theu primeval urge todominate others. Space colonies mouldoffer excellent opportunities for this tohappen because of the discipline neededto operate bfe-support systems and be-cause of the tugh degree of control thatcan be maintained over communica-tions and travel. A space colony so op-erated would resemble an island of pri-soners and would not likely become asmrce of great joy for most of its, in-mates. At any rate I see no chance for atrue diversity of Social systems unles;local developments are restrained by ef-fective outside control. This, however,implies government on the scale of thesolar system and few people would bewilling to call that a "small-scale gov-ernment unit."Thus, in my view, the ex-pectation of,small government togetherwith local diversityis unrealistic.

A large-scale, tolerant, concernedgovernment is a necessity if the emer-gence of autocratic systems is to beavoided. Indeed, in the absence of biggovernment the many local societieswould develop essentially independent-ly from eath other. On purely statisti-cal grounds, the emergence of many au-tocratic systems is to be expected.

Colonies Would Fight Each OtherZ. plentiful Lands. Let us turn from

the Internal social organization of thespace colonies to the relationships!Along them. 'Still assuming that spacecolonies are sovereign to tit, extentthat nations are todayTh.e. that nolarge overall government controlsthem). let us ask the question 1,, theirrelationship likely to be always har-monious?

O'Neill argues that these relation-ships would be peaceful because thehabitable space territories, being exte,n-dable, would be practically "limitless,"and also because the use of atomicweapons in space is forbidden by anInternational ti hi

i, however. vclieve that violent con-flicts would soon become likely. Let meenumerate a few of the many reasonsfor my belief.

Construction of a new space colonywould requi.. several years, muchwork and many resourceS. Oc-cupati, ' ....Ion) by force would be

w taste- apex.. constitutill, an eco-ireentive for aggression. This

ite,.oning is born out by past experi-ence, when the colonists reached theNew World. they did not just occui .themselves with peaceful labor or thecontemplation of nature. They foughtnumerous battles. And not only withthe Indians who understandably ob-ieued to their intrusion, but also w,.}.each other the Spanish withthe Portu-guese, the French with the English, etc.

64

Many of them also fought within theirown communities to such an extent thatcarrying arms became indispensible:Why did they behave in this manner?Because it was faster and cheaper totake the livestock and occupy the landand houses of others than to raise newanimals, clear new land or build newholicpc Yet they too had **unlimited"habitaPe areas at their disposal.

"We must assume thatmost isolated space

communities will, almostcertainly, eventually

develop somenon-democratic form tf

government"

Furthermore, competition for themost desirable raw materials (best lo-cation, highest quality, etc.) would re-sult in raids on each other's installa-mails and in counterraids, retaliationsand general violence. Examples of suchconflictsbenAeen individuals, laborunions, and industrial companids aswell as nationsare so numerous andwell known as to render further expo-sition unnecessary.

Continuing development would beinconceiyable without some regula-tions governing such matters as radio-

. active and other waste disposal, trafficcontrol, and perhaps even populationgrowth. On the average, there is, al-ways a short-term economic advantagein violating such regulations. otherwisethere would be no need to invent the

-regulations in the first place. Hence,the temptation to violate them and tryto get away with it. Hence also the needto enforce the regulations through apenal systemyet another source ofviolence. An Illustration of this phe-nomenon. It is generally agreed that ourtraffic laws are needed for the commongood and are reasonable, yet all of usfeel tempted occasionally to circumventthem.

Racial, Cultural Hostilities WillTdgger Aggression

Even more dangerous than the eco-nomic motivations )ust mentioned

.could be the various psychologicalones. Some individu'ats may try to de-stroy certain groups of people whick...they consider to be objectionable. This i

kind of Intolerance is obviously alive ,

and well. Reeall, for example, the Nazinse to poweein.cultuially advanced"society like Germany's in the recentpast. Or think of certain small EastEuropean countries which are notoriousfor ruthlessly trying to eliminate all na-tional minorities living within their

-1"

borders; the motive cannot be onom-ic, since the entire economy is st -con-trolled, The religious wars in elandand Lebanon and the intercultura trifein Cyprus also have long oufgrown heireconomic origins.

Let us also remember the siMplefelt by many which comes from con-quering others. It would be one of therewards of aggression. And let us notforget those select few who would con-sider it their duty to lead the misguidedmasses of the solar system to greaterhappinessagainst their own will, ifneed be. Among the many tyrants(whose number, like the total populaelion, can be assumed to double aboutevery 35 years) there will likely be somewho will run their space islands on thebasis of black magic, voodoo, or vari-ous superstitions of their own inven-tion. There Will also be those to whomthe Lord will reveal that He finds certaintypes of space colonies, offensive andwishes them destroyed. A crazed ruler,acting on "God's orders," may set out tocleanse the solar system of this entirehumanity of sinners and repopulate itwith the surviving creatures of his ownspaceship, a la Noah, but on a granderscale.

Need I go on? There is really no rea-son to anticipate harmony, instead ofconflict. On the contrary, the sourcesof potential conflict will remain plen-tiful, whether or not habitable areas canbe eXpanded by spaceship construction.Conflict could not be prevented by ma-

.teilaTabitiicliiiFe7Fut only by a univers-ally-felt deep respect and concern for allhuman beings. Such a feeling is insuffi-ciently encouraged toddy. For its ac-ceptance, a long-range-cultural reorien-tation would have to occur, and thatmay take generations.

Conflicts would not be restricted toconventional warfare. True, we dohavea treaty forbidding the use of "weaponsof mass destruction" in outer space.However, the treaty does not define"weapons of mass destruction," and al-though it does require inspection of allinstallations on celestial bodies, it saysnothing about stations or space coloniesin orbit. In any case, the moral force ofthis treaty, all by itself, is haidly likelyto deter the greedy ones, the bullies,

- maniacs, the suicidal types, or theious champions of human "peo-

gress," "liberation," or"rejuvenationEvery colony, as well as the Earth it-

self, would be in danger from outerspace at all times. No matter how manyproblems we ma,, have today, we can 41.401still look at the stars with fair assUrance!hat they constitute no immediatethreat to us. But with millions of spaces-colonies roaming the solar system,life could ,degenerate into a series of pre-parations for and recoveries from at-tacksan Updated version of the life-

style of centuries past when raids ofthe Norrnans. Berbers and other sea-faring people depopulated Europe'scoastlineexcept that this time theweaponry would be a great deal moredestructive.

Global Government Must Come FirstSurely, if we are to have the slightest

chance of survival, a treaty banningpowerful weapons from space wouldhave to be further clarified, then policedand enforced by some global governrnent. Enforcement would requirearmed force, since most colonies wouldpresumably be economically self-suffi-cient, so that economic pressure alonecould not be effective against them Thehistory of the United States as well asthat of uiher colonies illustrates howeconomic self .ufficiency leads to political independence unless such aspirationsare frustrated by force of arms Eco-nomic pressure would suffice if the colo-nies were kept in permanent economicdependence, but in that case the entirescenario based on self reproducing colorues becomes invalid And even then itwould be .necessary to detect and suppress any attempt toward a self-supporting local economy. Eventually hundredsof millions of space colonies would haveto be monitored (remember, we aretalking about an increase up to 20,000-fold in the human population) withessentially no margin of error since anyundetected local mischief could fast

t

escalate into a solar system-wide dis-aster. At the moment we are unable tosatisfactorily supervise even the handfulof major powers right here on our smallplanet Earth. And we are quite unable tokeep track of the doings of even one mil-lion peoplewitness-the soaring crimerate in citieswithout what we think ofas intolerable violations of their right toprivacy. How much more difficult itwould be to keep wakh over just unemillion space colonies, each one equip-ped with sophisticated computers de-signing strategies to outwit observers'.Even if we knew how to do it, we wouldhave to agree which of the rival powercenters on Earth would have the author-ity to do it. As things now stand, that isalmost inconceivable.

I have now shown that without effec-tive control most colonies c.ould easilyturn into space variants of the prisonIsland concept, violence would be fre-quent and could degenerate into globaldisaster. I have also shown that at pres-ent we have no way to impose effectivelarge-scale control on space communi-ties. Regretfully, we must conclude thatlarge-scale space colonization nowwould be suicidal. The only alternativewhich a rational person can permit him-self to contemplate at this time is a muchmore limited program in which at mosta very small number of space colonieswould be constructed, and each of themwould be kept under strict economicand political control by a government

-42m0arftro.

..011111112...

on Earth. In practice this would prob-ably mean keeping them in permanenteconomic dependency to prevent a suc-cessful coup d'etat leading to full inde-pendence.

3. Population. Turning to the thirditem on the list of expected benefits fromspace colonies, we must recognize thatspaye colonization cannot solve thepopulation problem, because thatwould require a full scale effort startingimmediately, to keep up with the paceof population growth. But such an effortis out of the question, as just demon-strated.

4. Sanctuary for Endangered Species.This suggested benefit is more realistic.Although it will not be possible to shiftmost industrial activity from the Earth'sbiosphere to the few space colonies en-visioned, nevertheless, even a smallnumber of colonies could serve ashavens for the bird and animal speciesendangered on Earth. Of course, if lifeon Earth ceased for some reason, itwould also cease in the colonies which,as we have seen, would have to be kentdependent on the Earth for survivai.Since It would be much cheaper to pro-vide havens for those same species here

Cut-away view of interior of a proposed10,000-person space "habitat." Such spacecommuni les are technologically possible,agrees author Csonka, but should not be al-lowed to proliferate until man has learnedto settle conflicts nonviolently and justly.Photo: NASA

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on Earth, this opportunity does not con-stitute a real incentive to start even alimited colontzation program.

5. Unique Advantages of Space Envi-ronment. Only this final item on the listof benefits constitutes a real incentive.One could derive genuine benefits frornresearch laboratories and certain typesof industries lnrated in space colonies,where low temperature, high vacuum,apd zero gravity environment.would beeasily accessible, and sunlight would beplentiful and could be converted intomicrowave energy to be radiated toEarth. Furthermore, the artificial habi-tats Cvould havv hovelty value for vis-iting tourists.

Outlook tor Space ColoniesThere is no need to rush into a large-

scale colonization program: Its foresee-able benefits would be genuine but lim-ited, nowhere, utopian in dimension,and would certainly not solve our mostpressing problems, such as overpopula-tion.

Before large-scale space colonizationis undertaken in the far distant future,we need to solve three problems: (l)how to settle conflicts (e.g., concerningthe distribution of resources) nonvio-lently and justly, (2) how to safeguardthe right of self-determination of vari-ous groups (on Earth and in space colo-nies) without opening the door to per-petual turmoil, and (3) how to limitpopulation growth and waste produc-tion to avoid finding ourselves in des-perate situations leading to desperateactions.

All three problems are more likely tobe solved here and now rather than afterlarge-scale colonization has started.Reaching a consensus is much easier ifthe number of participants (i.e. inde-pendent states or space cermnunities) issmall. Increasing the number of partrci-pauts by evrn a few greatly increases thenumber of potential conflicts Further-more, experience has shown that assem-blies of more than a few hundred par-ticipants cannot be grasped by an aver-age human being and are therefore quiteineffective.

If and when these problems have beensolved, we may safely commence full-sca le space colonization, We would thenbe expanding an orderly, concerned,nonviolent souety Into the vast spacesof our solar system. By contrast, pre-mature large-scale space colonizationwould amount to exportation on a cos-mit. scale of oppression, suffering, anddisorder the very qualities which char-acterize most human existence today.

immediatti TasksIn the meanwhile, we couldand

shouldexplore the possibility of asmall colonization*" programa pro-gram to put into space a few observa-

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tion posts, manufacturing plants, powerstations, etc. But we must insist thatnone of these space installations becomeeconomically self-sufficient, and that allof them permanently remain under firmcontrol from Earth. The space installa-tions must not be allowed to become thefirst step in a self-generating, escalatingspace colonization program in the nearfuture.

At the present time, both the UnitedStates and the Soviet Union have thecapability to start a full-scale spacecolonitation program. Once a greatpower makes the necessary preparations

"Premature large-scalespace colonization wouldamount to exportation ona efasmic scale of oppres-

sion, suffering, and dis-order the very qualitieswhich characterize mosthuman behavior today."

and investment to start such a program,it will be almost impossible to preventits realization,short of war.

To forestall such a turn of events, amoratorium on large-scale space coloni-zation should 4)e negotiated with allmajor powers. The sooner ehis is done,the better. In a few years, one of thepowers may feel that it is in a betterposition than its rivals to initiate spacecolonization, and would then be reluc-tant to agree to a moratorium. Any vio-lation of the agreement should be causefor great concern and should be dealtwith accordingly.

Less crucial than such a moratorium,but nevertheless important, would beinsuring that all space installations arebuilt under internationalor at leastmultinationalauspices, to preventthem from simply becoming space ex-tensions of the industrially developednations on Earth This would decreasethe probability of conflict, and mayprovide experience in how to enibarkonlarge projects cooperatively, rather thancompetitive] y.

There is no hope to realize either ofthe above two suggestions until the gen-eral public as well as governmentsunderstand the destructive potential of afull-scale space colonization progiam.Unfortunately, it may be too late whenthat finally happens. The appealing as-pects of gpace colonization are immedi-ately obvious: A growing number ofdiverse space habitats, flourishing andmultiplying in harmony, aiding eachother economically and culturally is avery appealing goal. Viewed superficial-ly, space colonization appears to be anoble venture on the road to an expand-ing, happy human race; by contrast,recognizing the potential for danger re-quires more careful thinking.

One lesson to be learned from themistakes of recent decades is th.a thetechnical feasibility of something(whether it be babies or nuclear reac-tors) does not, in itself, prove its desira-bility. After technical feasibility 'hasbeen demonstrated, the potential bene-fits and drawbacks should be carefullyevaluated. No agency, no pressuregroup should be allowed to proceed self-ishly, overriding the common good.Foresight and timely dialogue are essen-tial, especially when the project in ques-tion is of the size here contemplated. ta

Exterior view of a possible space habitat. If man undertakeia large-Scale space coloniza-tion program now, says author Paul Csonka, the result is likely to be "exportation on a cmic scale of oppression, suffering, and disorderthe very qualities which characterizemost human existence today." PhoW NASA