DOCUMENT RESUME Nelson, Orville; Halfin, Harold Emerging
43
ED 216 205 AUTHOR ' TITLE INSTITUTION.s SPONS AGENCY PUB DATE CONTRACT NOTE 2 AVAILABLE FROM EDRS PRICE DESCRIPTORS t, IDENTIFIERS ' DOCUMENT RESUME CE 032 554 Nelson, Orville; Halfin, Harold Emerging Skills: Implications for yoc Ed. Information Series No. 234. Ohio State Univ Coiumbut. National Center for Research in Vocational. Education. Office of Vocational and Adult Education (ED), Washington, DC. Jan 82 300-7870032 -4;111LI, The National Center for Research in Vocational Education,Raional Center Publications, Box F, 1960 Kenny Rd., Columbus, OH 43210 (IN 234, $4.25; quantity discounts available--write for information). MF01/PCO2 Plus Postage. Curriculum Development; *Educational Needs; Educational Trends; *Futures (of Society); Job Skills; Job Training; Labor Needs; Postsecondary' Education; Research Utilization; Secondary Education; *Skill Analysis; Skill Development; *Skill Obsolescence; *Technical Education; Transfer of Training; *Vocational Education *Emerging Occupations ABSTRACT During the'next two decades, vocational education will face a major challenge to keep up to-date with technology. Motional crises usually lead to new,technologies. The United States today faces major problems in the areas of energy, productivity, and foreign trade. Solutions to these problems will generate new knowledge and technology that will change skill requirements for many joss and create many more new ones. Methods that can be used to identify the emerging skills that will be needed'include the following: use of advisory committees, creative insight, the'DACUM process ("Developing a Curriculum"), the Delphi process, evaluation studies, industrial work experience, labor market stftveys, conferences, and task analysis. In order for vocational education to keep pace with changes in technology, it must become more proactive and involved with the transfer of new technology from research and development laboratories to practical use in business and industry. Vocational education curriculum development processes must become more flexible and assist vocational educators in using a. variety of data for making curriculum and instructional decisions. (Author/KC) *********************15************************************************* Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original document. ***********************************************************************
DOCUMENT RESUME Nelson, Orville; Halfin, Harold Emerging
ed216205.tif.pdfEDRS PRICE DESCRIPTORS
CE 032 554
Nelson, Orville; Halfin, Harold Emerging Skills: Implications for
yoc Ed. Information Series No. 234. Ohio State Univ Coiumbut.
National Center for Research in Vocational. Education. Office of
Vocational and Adult Education (ED), Washington, DC. Jan 82
300-7870032 -4;111LI,
The National Center for Research in Vocational Education,Raional
Center Publications, Box F, 1960 Kenny Rd., Columbus, OH 43210 (IN
234, $4.25; quantity discounts available--write for
information).
MF01/PCO2 Plus Postage. Curriculum Development; *Educational Needs;
Educational Trends; *Futures (of Society); Job Skills; Job
Training; Labor Needs; Postsecondary' Education; Research
Utilization; Secondary Education; *Skill Analysis; Skill
Development; *Skill Obsolescence; *Technical Education; Transfer of
Training; *Vocational Education *Emerging Occupations
ABSTRACT During the'next two decades, vocational education
will face a major challenge to keep up to-date with technology.
Motional crises usually lead to new,technologies. The United States
today faces major problems in the areas of energy, productivity,
and foreign trade. Solutions to these problems will generate new
knowledge and technology that will change skill requirements for
many joss and create many more new ones. Methods that can be used
to identify the emerging skills that will be needed'include the
following: use of advisory committees, creative insight, the'DACUM
process ("Developing a Curriculum"), the Delphi process, evaluation
studies, industrial work experience, labor market stftveys,
conferences, and task analysis. In order for vocational education
to keep pace with changes in technology, it must become more
proactive and involved with the transfer of new technology from
research and development laboratories to practical use in business
and industry. Vocational education curriculum development processes
must become more flexible and assist vocational educators in using
a. variety of data for making curriculum and instructional
decisions. (Author/KC)
*********************15*************************************************
Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made
from the original document.
***********************************************************************
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER IERIC1
/This document has been reproduced as received from the person or
Organization originating it Minor changes have been malt, to
Improve reproduction quah'Y
Points of view or opinionS stated in this dOr
ment do not neCesSanly represent offic,31NIE
peso., or policy ,
TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC)
The National Center for Research n Vocational Education The Ohio
State U 'trashy
1980 Kenny Road Columbus, Ohio 43210
January 1982
Source of Contract:
300780032
U.S., Department of Education Office of Vocational and Adult
Education Washington, DC
The National Center for Research ir. Vocational Education The Ohio
State University
,Columbus, Ohio 43210
Robert E. Taylor
This publication was prepared pursuant to a contract with the
Office of Vocational and Adult Education, U.S. Department of
Education. Contractors undegaking such projects under government
sponsorship are encouraged to express freely their judgment in
professional and technical matters. Points of view or opinions do
not, therefore, necessarily represent official U.S. Department of
Education position or policy.
Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 states: "No person in the
United States shall, on the grounds of race, color, or national
origin, be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits
of, or be subjected to discrimination under any program or activity
receiving Federal financial assistance." Title IX of the Education
Amendments of 1972 states: "No person in the United States shall,
on the basis of sex, be excluded from participation in, be denied
the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any
education program or activity receiving Federal financial
assistance." Therefore,the National Center for Research in
Vocational Education Project, like every program or activity
receiving financial assistance from the U.S. Department of
Education, must be operated in compliance with these laws.
ii
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17
2
APPENDIX: SELECTED STUDIES UTILIZING PROCESSES FOR IDENtNGN
EMERGING SKILLS 27
REFERENCES (,)
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: RELATIVE EFFECTIVENESS OF TECHNIQUES FOR IDENTIFYING
EMERGING SKILLS AT EACH PHASE OF THE ADOPTION AND USE OF
INNOVATIONS 13
Table 2: TECHNIQUES US,EFUL FOR IDENTIFYING EMERGING SKILLS:
ADVANTAGES AND
14 t
Emerging Skills: Implications for Voc'Ed reviews relevant
techniques for identifying emerging skills and suggests appropriate
applications for those techniques. The authors' recommendations
include the development of a combination of proactive and reactive
processes for identifying and making decisions on content for
vocational education programs.
. This paper is one of seven interpretive papers prodticed during
the fourth year of the National Center's knowledge transformation
program. The review and synthesis in each topic th-ea is intended
to communicate knowledge and suggest applications. Papers in the
series should be of interest to all vocational educators including
teachers, administrators, federal agency personnel, researchers,
and the National Centor staff.
el. v:
The profession is indebted to Dr. Orville Nelson and Dr. Harold
Halfin for their scholirship in preparing this paper. Ronald McCage
of V-TECS,. Dr. Dan Jarosik of the Wisconsin AdviSory Council on
Vocational Education, and Dr. Linda Lotto of the Nationgl Center
for Research in Vocational Education contributed to the development
of the paper through their critical review of the manuscript. Staff
on the proiec: included Alta Moser, Shelley Grieve, Raymond E.
Harlan, Dr. Carol Kowle, Dr. Judith Samuelson, and Dr. Jay Smink.
Editorial assistance was provided by Brenda Sessley of the Field
Services staff.
et
4
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vii
Robert E. Taylor Executive Director The National Center for
Research
in Vocational Education
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
During the next two decades, vocational education will face a major
challenge to keep up to date with technology. National crises
usually lead to new technologies. The United States today faces
major problems in the areasof energy, productivity, and foreign
trade. Solutions to these problems will generate new knowledge and
technology that will change skill reguireMents for many jobs and
create many mote new ones.
...
ix
se
INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this paper is to illuminate some of those emerging
skills that apparently have immediate importance for vocational
education and to provide a summary of some,procedures for
identifying them. Since today's emerging skills may be obsolete
tomorrow, emphasis must be placed on identifying situationally and
temporally transferable processes to kise to identify new skills. A
summary of trends predicted by business and industry is included
because vocational education draws much of its skill and knowledge
content from this source.
Providing education and training consistent with busineskand
industry practices is a major challenge for vocational education.
In the opinion of some, vocational educators have not adequately
met this challenge and may be criticized for teaching obsolete
skills. Maeroff (1979) reported in The New York Times that the
effectiveness of vocational educittion.has been challenged by
several studies.
In light of the mission of vocational education, it is not
unreasonable to expect that keeping current with business and
industry technology will be an ongoing problem. Vocational
education must keep abreast of the skills and knowledge required
for occupations in business and industry. This is, then, a
responsive role and it presents the challenge of staying
current.
The Vocational Education Amendments of 1968 and 1976 recognized the
importance of emerging skills and occupations: These amendments
authorized the expenditure of funds to identify and develop
curricula for new and emerging occupations.. Increased emphasis on
advisory committees in this legislation reflected a concern with
keeping vocational education programs relevant.
When the content of jobs changed slowly, little need existed for
retraining workers' In recent decades, new technology has developed
'at an exponential rate. For example, 80 percent of the products
that the Sperry Rand Corporation will market in 1983 were not on
the market in 1978 (Report of the 1978 Annual Meeting of
Stockholders 1978). As a result of changes such as this, the
content of jobs has been modified tremendously. It is estimated
that today's worker will need to be retrained eight or nine times
before retiring.
This rapid rate of technological change has created significant
problems for vocational education curriculum development. It is
more difficult to keep the content of vocational education programs
current with the needs of business and industry. Because the
process required to -'evelop or modify vocational education
curricula is lengthy, curricula may be partially obsolete by the
time they are approved and put into practice.
It is apparent that vocational education must become more
responsive to changes in technology in business and industry if it
is to remain relevant. Processes for monitoring new and emerging
skills must be refined. The procedures for modifying existing
programs and developing new ones must be streamlined and made more
efficient. Factors that encourage staft inertia must also be
overcome.
1
1J
New technology is typically developed in response to significant
problems or opportunities At the present time, the United States is
faced with a number of significant challenges. A review of these
suggests that dramatic changes will take place in business and
industry.during the coming decade. Some challenges now facing the
United States follow.
American worker productivity must be improved significantly during
this decade if United States business and industry are to remain
competitive internationally.
Increased productivity is needed to aid in reducing the present
high rate of inflation in the United States.
More efficient use must be made of energy and resources. Increasing
demands on the available supply of energy and natural resources
niake it imperative that they be utilized more effectively.
In order for the United States to maintain its technological
leadership, greater investments in research are necessary. New
technology is essential if the United States is going to compete in
the international marketplace.
The 1980 census reports that the median age of United States
citizens has increased from twenty-eight years in 1970 to thirty
years in 1980. Due to a significant reduction in the birthrate and
improvements in nutrition and health care, the percentage of
citizens over sixty-five is increasing rapidly. These population
changes are creating demands for health care and other services for
older Americans.
American business and industry have found that they must be more
responsive to consumer demands. Japanese businesses have provided
an example of how to enter markets successfully by careful market
analysis.
The sheer magnitude of the problems related to productivity, energy
supplies, and international competition suggests that dramatic
changes must be made by business and industry. Signs of these
changes are becoming apparent. The American automobile industry
began redesigning cars four years ago and has been building new,
automated produdtion facilities for the last two years. Industrial
robots are being utilized in these new facilities.
Innovations are apparent in energy utilization. Processes that more
effectively use fuels are being developed. A variety of
conservation measures are being employed by UnitedStates'
industries.
New technology that results from- the solution of major problems is
usually applied n many ways. The sophisticated United States space
technology of the 1960s has been utilized in a variety of consumer
products. New technology developed to solve productivity and energy
problems will also find wide application:
Clearly, vocational education faces a continuing chall in keeping
current with ,e technology developed and used by business and
industry. Tonal education attempts to meet this challenge by
quickly revising existing programs. Vobati ducators also must
continually develop new programs to prepare people for a changing
labo rket. As tha American population becomes older, the retraining
of adults will become creasingly important.
4,.
2
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NEW TECHNOLOGIES!
During World War II, materiel, flight, medical, iOlfamation, and
energy technologies were significantly impraved. Speed and range of
aircraft were greatly expanded. Plastics and other synthetic
materials were developed. A number of new drugs and medical
practices were created. Atomic and nuclear energy applications were
developed. Electronics became sophisticated and the computer age
began. These technological developments have had impacts on a wide
variety of products, services, and jobs in the past three
decades.
When the Soviet onion launched Sputnik I in 1957, the United
States' leadership in science and technology was challenged. The
United States quickly established a national goal to place an
astronaut on the moon. This challengeresulted in dramatic changes
in electronics, computing, and communications systems.
The effects of these new technologies are now a part of the
everyday lives of all Americans. For example, computers are
being'applied to a wider variety of jobs and tasks in business and
industry. Smaller computers and micro-processors are finding their
way into intelligent machines (for example, computer- controlled
robots), schools, and homes at an ever increasing rate.
The United States has become aware in recent decades of the need to
be concerned with energy supplies. Decreasing domestic fuel
production and increasing demands on energy have made this country
vulnerable to constraints imposed by energy-exporting nations. As a
result, a concerted effort has been mounted to modify existing
technologies and develop new ones that are more energy efficient.
New techniques and equipment are being designed to locate and to
mina energy resources that have previously gone unexplored. In
addition, a search for hew forms of energy resources and efforts to
create the technologies required to convert them into useful energy
have begun.
If the development of new technology is truly influenced by the
magnitude of the challenges \and problems facing our country, the
1980s should be a decade characterized by the birth of a variety of
new techhologies. The scope and depth of problems facing the United
States are sufficiently groat to command the development of more
sophisticated technology.
The use of automation in business and industry will undoubtedly
increase. New tools, equipment, and facilities are being purchased
(Sloan and Miles 1980). Many manufacturing concerns are buying or
considering buying robots (Flax 1980). In fact, the demand for
robots has increased so rapidly that it has been impossible for
machine tool manufacturers to keep pace with orders for them
("Robots Join the Labor Force" 1980).
Computers are also beirig applied to a wide variety of tasks in
business and industry. Microprocessors are usually an important
component of robots. Computer-assisted design systems are
significantly increasing the productivity of designers and
engineers. Computers quickly generate a variety of modifications of
each design and provide data on each of the modifications.
r
3
In manufacturing, computers assist in scheduling activities,
maintaining appropriate inventories, and controlling various other
critical processes. When computer-assisted design and
computer-assisted manufacturing are linked together, even greater
efficiencies may be achieved. InformatiOn from the design phase can
be translated into information that can be directly used in the
Computer-assisted manufacturing systems. For example, it is now
possible to translate shoe designs from a computer-assisted design
system into patterns that .are stored in another computer and used
to cut the materials for shoes.
Several writers and scholars (Drucker 1981, Toffler 1980, and
Molitor 1981) have suggested that our society and economy are
moving into the "Information Age." Signs of the change to an
informaticpbased society can be seen in a variety of jobs. Word
processing systems are being combined with computers to merge.the
capabilities of word and data processing. Increasing / volumes of
information are being stored, retrieved, and transmitted
electronically. The "paperless" office is now a possibility.
New communications systems that allow one to communicate ouipkly
and effectively throughout the world are now available. Large data
banks and libraries can be accessed by computer. Information can be
quickly retrieved and stored on-line for further analysis and
use.
piotechnology has recently attracted significant attention. Some
useful prooucts have been produced by genetic engineering. Plants
with enhahced nitrogen assimilation (Brill 1981) and new forms of
proteins generated by bacteria (Rose 1981) are two examples. The
major impacts of this technology are yet to be assessed.
4
HUMAN RESOURCES
,..
Economists 'and management theorists have concluded that the type
of management style used in business and industry may be one of the
causes of lagging productivity. They suggest that management has
focus'ed on short-term solutions to long-range problems and has
attempted to make jobs more specialized afthe expense of human
considerations.
Experiments with modified work environments and new roles for
employees have proven to have a positive effect on productivity
(Hinrichs 1978). Workers in some organizations are being given more
opportunity for participation in decision making related to the
tasks they perform. For example, General Motprs has successfully
involved workers in the design of facilities, tooling, and tasks
(Guest 1979). Several companies have initiated systems to improve
the quality of work life for employees.,
The image of.training and development in business and industry has
improved significantly during the past three decades (Varney 1981).
The training function has recently been moved to the managerial
level of many organizations. According to Varney, membership in the
American Society of Training and Development has almost tripled in
size during the last ten years.
A number of private and professional organizations have established
training programs that are offered on a fee basis in major cities
throughout the Urited States. Drucker (1981) has predicted that
continuing technical and professional adu9ation for adults will be
a growing industry in the coming decade.
There is considerable agreement in the Merle ire on the types of
competencies required for new technologies. Some of those listed
are the ability to do the following:
Solve problems
Interact with and use a computer to do one's work
Change with the development of new technologies
a Communicate effectively with a variety of persons
Use new communications systems
Use information from several disciplines in carrying out one's
work
Understand United States and world economic systems and how an
enterprise functions within them
6
i
IDENTIFYING EMERGING SKILLS
A variety of curriculum development projects, research reports, and
journal articles reveal strategies and processes that are being
used to identify emerging skills. Some of these techniques are
described below along with examples of their applications. (A
listing of studies showing the new skills and trends identified
appears in the Appendix.)
Advisory Committee
Vocational education advisory committees are comprised of
representatives of business, industry, and labor. One of the major
functions of advisory committees !s the identification of relevant
content for vocational programs (Burt 1967). Vocational education
advisory committees can also identify emerging skills; especially
if members are involved with the latest technology in their fields.
Vocational educators must ensure that consideration of emerging
skills is included on their meeting agenda.
Vocational,education advisory committee members believe that they
havkinfluenced vsicaticnal program content, according to a
statewide evaluation of secondary vocItfonal programs in Wisconsin
(Dale et al. 1980). At the postsecondary level, Sorensen (1974)
found that state directors, vocational educators, and advisory
committee members think that one of the most important roles'of
advisory committees is to identify program content.
Creative Insight
The use of creative insight and analysis to identify emerging
skills is not well documented. Some information on this approach is
available from vocational educators who are in the process of
introducing new skill training for existing curricula or developing
curricula related to emerging technologies. The identification of
emerging skills or occupations usually. begins with the acquisition
of information on new research developments, processes, or
technology through reading professional journals; participation in
professional organizations related to the technology, or attendance
at conferences or workshops where the new technology is
discussed.
DACUM Process
The DACURcurriculum development process was developed in Canada
(Sinnett 1976). DACUM stands for "Developing a Curriculum." The
process was designed to develop relevant vocational education
curricula.
In the DACUM process, identification of the tasks and competencies
required to perform a given job is accomplished by a panel of
persons who are employed in the job, or who supervise those who
are. These people meet with a DACUM facilitator to identify the
functions or duties involved in performing the job. SpecIfic tasks
related to each function are then identified and
7
sequenced on logical, psychological, or need bases. The-originators
of the DACUM process recommended that sequencing of tasks be based
on the question, "What do people need to do as they enter the job?"
The end product of the DACUM process is a chart that contains all
the functions and tasks required to do a certain job, placed..in an
appropriate sequence, with the competency level needed for each
task identified.
Morton (1977) has indicated that the brainstorming atmosphere of
the DACUM process stimulates the identification of emerging skills.
The experience and knowledge of the panel members, of course,
determine the types of tasks identified, so the inclusion of panel
members who are working with new technology is important for the
identification of emerging skills.
Delphi Process
A rev;ew of the literature indicates that the Delphi process has
been successfully used to identify new and emerging skills. This
process was developed after World Wag II to provide a means for
projecting trends relatedito military and international affairs.
,I1/4t has subsequently been applied to a variety of problems in
education, business, and industry. \;
A Delphi study involves a panel of experts 3n a series of surveys.
The panel is composed of persons who are knowledgeable about all or
parts of the selected problem. Input from the panel is solicited by
mail survey. This reduces the effect of personal interactions on
the decisions of panel members. ,.._."'
In the first round, a list of trends or events related to the
problem is obtained from the panel through general questions. The
responses to this survey are synthesized and a rating scale is
developed. The respondents are then, in the-second round, asked to
indicate the likelihood of occurrence, importance, and/or impact of
the_trends listed. Responses are summarized, and the area of
consensus for each item is determined.
IrPthe third round, Delphi panel members whose responses are not
within the consensus area for an item are asked to modify onto
write a justification for those responses. The ratings and
comrdents obtained in the third round 80 summarized and returned to
the panel. In the fourth round, the panel member' are asked either
to modify responses that are outside the area of consensus or to
write a couqterargument to the responses that are at the other
extreme of the response continuum.
The Delphi process elicits a wide variety of ideas and projections.
It helps to derive ,
consensus on most of the trends or items listed, but it also
provides an opportunity for input that is not consistent with the
majority of the metlioers of the group. The arguments and
counterarguments often provide information about new trends and
directions.
.The De !Phi-process proved to be valuable in forecasting trends
and events related to vocational education in Wisconsin (Arora
1974). Changes in a 4ariety of areas, such as communications,
demographics, manufacturing, agriculture, and transportation were
predicted. For example, trends toward small cars, home computers,
and automated manufacturing wero forecast. The accuracy othose
predictions is now apparent.
V' Evaluation Study
Since evaluation or,follow -up studies typically involve vocational
education graduates and their employers, they provide an excellent
opportunity to acquire feedback on emerging skills.
8
s
I.
-I Although specific questions on emerging skills were not asked,
evaluation reports from Oklahoma (Morton et ai 1977) and Wisconsin
(Dale et al. 1980) suggest that vocational education programs in
those states are, in general, keeping current with business and
industry technology.
I Industrial Work Experience
The importance of experience in business and industry for voc: nal
educators is emphasized throughout vocational education literature
(Elliott 19 ). Work experience is often a requirement for
certification of vocational educators. Many voca onal education
teachers hdve not had a recent opportunity to return to the
occupation that t y represent and have therefore not been able to
remain current with technology through this eans.
Programs have been established by some states and hool systems to
assist vocational educators in renewing their work experience.
Teachers ho have participated in programs that give them experience
in business and inaustry indicat that these experiences are helpful
in identifying new technology and the skills required to itilize
it.
Another way, then, to identify emerging skills and I orporate
related training in vocational education programs is to employ
teachers who recently have been using skills related to new
technologies. This approach Is most feasible for expanding or new
pi"ograms.
Labor Market Survey
Labor market surveys are conducted at national, regional, "state,
and local levels. The U.S. Department of Labor provides frequent
reports of trends in the labor market. State departments
responsible for industry and labor affairs also conduct labor
market surveys. Some local labor market surveys are conducted by
local government agencies or by schools.
Labor market surveys identify the number of available jobs in
specific job categories. Because the purpose of labor market
surveys is to report employment trends, the information obtained is
concerned only with jobs. Emerging skills are therefore not
identified. In some surveys, however, emerging occupations are
identified. These data can be useful to vocational program
planners.
Examples of surveys that have identified emerging occupations
include one completed by the state of Washington. This labor market
study identified several emerging occupations (Halverson et al.
1978). A survey of data processing jobs in Pennsylvania identified
some skill areas that vocational educators should emphasize
(Cannon, Armstrong, and Armstrong 1978).
In addition, a modified labor market survey was completed in
Pennsylvania by John Shuman' of the Lehigh Valley Manpower Area in
which information on new technology and processes was gathered
rather than the usual data on retirements, turnover, and new
positions. This information was collected through interviews with
employees who were knowledgeable about the new technology and its
implications.
' Telephone Interview. June 2, 1081
9
Study, Survey, or Conference
These activities usually involve bringing together or acquiring
input from a panel of expertsselected on a regional or national
basis. Participants are normally chosen from a variety of fields.
For example, the Wingspread Conference (Changing Workforce Needs
With Implications for Higher Education 1978) brought together
individuals from business, industrki, vocational education, and
higher education to discuss the impacts of changing lifestyles,
demography, andtechnology on the skills required of workers.
The New York State Department of Education established a
"Futurizing Committee" to review its business education curriculum
and make recommendations for change (Wakin 1981).The committee
recommended that vocational educators place more emphasis on
problem . solving, decision making, and human relations skills.
Computer literacy recognized as an important educational goal. The
need for a better understanding by students of the United States
economic system was emphasized. This study was seen as so effective
that me process is to he utilized for all vocational education
programs in New York (Freeborne 1981).
Hogue (1979) surveyed business people and distributive education
coordinators in an attempt to identify emerging occupations. Two of
the identified emerging jobs were related to international travel
apd commerce. Skills related to international transactions are
apparentlybecoming more important.
Participants from agriculture, industry, labor, and government, in
a symposium on the role of vocational education in the United
States' economy, noted a variety of problems in forecasting (Van
Ausdle 1978). Several participants suggested that forecasting must
be a continuous process.
Task Analysis
Task analysis is the procedure most commonly used in vocational
education for identifying the skills needed to perform a job. A
task is a job component which is comprised of a set of related
activities Task analysis is a process in which the tasks commonly
performed by people in a specific job or set of related jobs are
identified and verified.
Tasks are verified by submitting descriptions of them to persons
who perprm that job and to their supervisors. Thes'e persons rate
the tasks according to importance and/or frequency of usd. This
information may then be used by curriculum developers to plan
training strategies for those tasks that should be included in
related vocational education programs.
Task analysis may be completed through observation, interview, or
mail survey. It provides a snapshot of the tfsks performed on a job
at a given point in time (Johnson 1977). Because of the nature of
the task analysis process, emerging skills are usually not
identified. In order to do this, task analyses would have to be
conducted continually and trend predictions related to the
utilization of the tasks over a period of time would have to be
established.
An apparently promising approach is to survey respondents to
predict the importance of selected tasks during the ensuing five
years (Lesch 1975), AccOrding to Gerald Lesch," such projections
har proved to be accurate and,useful in modifying curricula.
Teiephone Interview, June 8. 1981
10
gwe
. ADOPTION OF INNOVATIONS ,
Based on descriptions of product development, there appear to be
seven phases in the adoption and utilization of a given product or
practice. These phases are (1) applied research, (2) early
transfer, (3) transfer, (4) early adoption, (5) general adoption,
(6) stable usage, and (7) decline. Each of these stages is
described briefly below.
*polled Research Phase
In the applied research phasst of innovation adoption, the products
of basic research,are being investigated and appliec; tb orie or
more problems in business or industry. Specific user applications
are being developed. The new technology is being utilized in few
businesses or industries except on an experimental basis.
Information on the new technology is available through technical
journals, conferences, and persons who work with
the,te,,chnology.
Early Transfer Phase
In the early transfer phase, specific business,and industry
applications have been developed, and some businesses and
industries are testing or using these applications. In most
instances, these applications are found in firms that use
state,of-the-art technology. In this phase, more people will have
experience with the technology. It will oe easier to acquire
advisory committee members who have experience or knowledge of the
technology. Also, vendor-sponsored technical training sessions may
be available. Information on the technology and potential spin-
offs will be more widely available through a greater variety of
conferences, reports, and journals.
Transfer Phase
In the transfer phase, Many businesses and industries that have
direct applications of the new technology will be using or
experimenting with it. There will be more people available who are
knowl4dgeable about the new technology and its implications for
vocational training. In addition, better data will be available for
establishing trends in the application and use of the new
technology.
. 1\
Early Adoption Phase
In the early adoption phase, many of\the businesses and industries
in which the new technology has applications are either using,
experimenting with, or planning to introduce it into their
operations. Some secondary or spin-off applications are also
starting to appear. A number of employees and supervisors who have
experience with the technology will be availabl fn participate in
activities designed to gather information about emerging
skills.
11
e
0
4
General AdoptiOn Phase
In the general adoption phase, most businesses and industries with
direct applications of the new technology have adopted or bre
considering it. In addition, the number of spin-offs and
'secondary and tertiary applications is growing. The spin-offs may
be growing dramatically if the technology is applicable tote wide
variety of products and services. For example, laser and integrated
circuit technologies are presently being utilized in a wide variety
of applications. At this point, the type and number of jobs
associated with the technology can be defined with some
accuracy.
I
.se
Stable Use Phase ;
By the time the stable use phase arrives, the technology has been
adopted by most, if not all, of the businesses and industries that
can use it. The processes, skills, and attitudes associated with
the technology are well defined and readily 'available to
curriculum developers. A main concern in this phase is preparing
'people who have adequate skill levels to perform rather well-
defined jobs. Another concern is related to the length of time the
technology will remain in a stable form. There is a need to
continue to monitor developthents in the technology and in
competing technologies.
t.
Declining se Phase 4
In the declining use phase,lhe technology h s outlived its general
usefulness. New technologies have been developed to compete wi it
and to take its place. The number of jobs based on the technolugy
is declining, and the task and skills based on it are being
replaced by new skills. The emerging technologies will need to be
studied and their implications for vocational education programs
identified.
Effectiveness of Techniques
The techniques subgested for use in identifying emerging skills are
more effectively employed at some phases in the acceptance and
application of innovations than at others. The available 'sources
of information on new skills vary with the degree to which new
technology has been transferred from the research phase to the
adoption phase. The relative usefulness of each technique during
each phase of the transfer and use process is indicated in table
1.
Further, these techniques have relative advantages and
disadvantages for implementation in general and for the
identification of emerging skills, in pa-ticular. These relative
advantages and disadvantages are displayed in table 2.
12
AT EACH PHASE OF THE ADOPTION AND USE OF INNOVATIONS
Technique II lil
Industrial Work Experience 0 0 2
Labor Market Survey 0 0 0
Study;SUrvey, or Conference 3 2 2
Task Analysis 0
3 3
1 0
RELATIVE EFFECTIVENESS
Extremely Useful (1) Useful (2) Somewhat Useful (3) Not Applicable
(0) .
13
PHASE
III Transfer IV Early Adoption V General Adoption
VI Stable Use Vil Declining Use
0
ADVISORY COMMITTEE
Provides opportunities for obtaining infor- mation from
state-Df-the-art busindts and industry.
Advantages
Disadvartages
Informatii7n available from local business and industry may not
include state-of-the-art technology.
CREATIVE INSIGHT
Provides maximum potential for immediate application of information
gained in vocational education classrooms.
Disadvantages
Requires funding support for optimum effec- tiveness (workshops,
conferences, and so forth).
DACUM PROCESS
Produces high quality information.
Requires a minimt'm of time.
Provides an opportunity to obtain infor- mation on competencies
related to emerging skills.
Disadvantages
Intormation available from local business and indUstry may not
include state-of-the-art technology.
Provides information about emerging skills only if specifically
designed to do so.
DELPHI PROCESS
Provides opportunities to obtain forecasts from experts
representative of all geographical regions.
Produces high quality information.
14
Disadvantages
Requ:res the commitment of an extended time period by participants
(some may not comple4e the process).
Requires a considerable amount of staff time.
TABLE 2 (continued)
Provides a means for easy and continuous collection of data.
INDUSTRIAL WORK EXPERIENCE
Disadvantages
Available jobs may not proVide state-of-the-art experiences.
LABOR MARKET SURVEY
'Provides data on the composition of the existing labor
market.
Provides information on the projected job openings in each job
category.
Provides information on recent trends in the labor market (when the
data from a series of surveys are analyzed).
Disadvantages
Information provided is influenced by economic cycles (during
economic slowdowns job openings are underestimated).
identifies few emerging skills.
STUDY, SURVEY, OR CONFERENCE
Provides opportunities to obtain from experts.
information
information
Requires considerable expenditures.
Requires a considerable amount of time and effort to organize,
conduct, and report.
Dissemination of reported information may be limited.
TABLE 2 (continued)
Identifies skills required for e:tablished jobs. Provides
information only about skills required
Provides information understood by most at the time of the
analysis.
vocational educators Requires a considerable amount of time to
complete.
Provides useful information for curriculum development.
Provides meaningful information to business and industry.
.e.
IDENTIFYING EMERGING OCCUPATIONS .s4r
The first research completed on the development of vocational
programs for new and emerging occupations is apparently that of Me
leen et(af. (1976). This project focused on emerging occupations at
the patio al level and concluded that social.and technological
changes are the major factors that lead to new and emerging
occupations.
Steps listed for utilization in the process of identifying emerging
occupations are as follows
1. Identify social and technological changes that have potential
for generating new occupations.
2. Review occupational data and labor market.forecasts to identify
specific occupational areas and job titles that merit further
study.
3. Develop projections of the growth rate of the new
occupations.
4. Collect additional information on these occupations through
interviews with employers and other persons knowledgeable about
trends and associated emerging occupations.
The Me leen study found that there is no apparent employment data
base that provides information on new and emerging occupations.
Existing data bnses were constructed to provide information on
curren jobs, job openings, and employment trends related to them.
There is, therefore, no information available en emerging
occupations from these sources.
Because existing occupational labbr market data bases do not
provide sufficient information on growth projections for new and
emerging occupations, additional methods have been developed for
generating these projections. Me leen suggests that analysis of
employment statistics for related occupations, legislative trends,
production and sales growth rates, and investment patterns may
provide information on emerging occupations.
Additional information on emerging occupations may be obtained
through interviews with people who are knowledgeable about the
changes that produce a new occupation. Information from such
persons can be used along with labor market projections to infer
competencies needed in vocational education programs.
This process was used by Me leen in both 1975 and 1976 to identify
the following new and emerging occapptions.
Child advocate -_-_ itEnergy efficiency technic
6 At.7.-
.., J .-&. A.- dr.4- -- ..1.-
Public safety communication operator
A West Virginia Departme nt ofEducation project designated five
areas in which emerging jobs were to be identified. These areas
were (1) energy production, distribution, and uses; (2) public
service; (3) ;iealth- related services; (4) manufacturing
technology; and (5) tourism and recreation. A system for
identifying emerging occupations based on a combination of labor
market demand statistics and advice from a panel of experts was
developed for this purpos.: by Associated Educational Consultants
(Identification of New and Emerging Ca.reers or Occupations in West
Virginia and Determination of the Feasibility of Providing
Vocational Education Programs 1979).
Project staff members worked with a task force to develop a survey
form to be used in identifying (1) new occupations. (2) those that
had recently undergone major changes, and (3) those in which future
changes were anticipated. The survey was sent to representatives of
West Virginia business and industry who were also given the
opportunity to identify additional emerging occupations.
Project staff created guidelines for developing new curricula and
for monitoring the relevance of existing curricula. Thesc
procedures recommend the use of student, labor market, industry,
and demographic data in developing new vocational education
programs and monitoring the content of existing ones.
A handbook on emerging occupations that was developed for the state
of California emphasizes a flexible and varied approach to
identifying emerging occupations (Maxwell and West 1980). It
suggests that the most important factor in identifying new and
emerging occupations is an effective communications system. Such a
system would involve individoels in business, industry, and
education who are knowledgeable about trends that have potential
for influencing the development of new and emerging
occupations.
The handbook utilizes the process developed by Nelson (1980) for
monitoring factors involved in stimulating the development of new
occupations. The criteria utilized in the handbook for judging
whether an occupation fits the category of "new and emerging" are
similar to those suggested by Meleen. These criteria are as
follows:
1. The occupation has been in existence approximately (and not more
than) ten years
2. The occupation must require at least six months of
training.
I.
, 18
.... ll
.4
3. A shortage of workers in the occupation must be
anticipated.
The Nelson study presented a system for predicting emerging
occupations that is based upon monitoring trends in demographics,
technology, legislation, resources, and life-styles. The
involvement of vocational education teachers, researchers, and
administrators in the process of monitoring these trends using
triangulation of datagathering multiple sets of information dawn
frorri different sourceswas suggested. Some low risk options for
introducing related instruction into vocational education programs
were identified. These options include workshops, short courses,
regular courses, and units within courses.
i
A SYSTEM FOR IDENTIFYING EMERGING SKILLS
Stuart (1972) developed a process to identify new skills in
selected occupations for the state of Michigan. The process was
based on a task analysis approach to the identification of
curriculum content. Detroit, Grand Rapids, and Mt. Pleasant were
selected as pilot-test sites.
A task analysis technique was utilized with employers to identify
the entry-level skills required in selected occupations and the
level of competence of vocational education graduates in these
skills. Task lists developed by project staff for each of the
occupations were submitted to first-line supervisors who identified
job skills. Personnel managers identified job-seeking and
personal/social skills required.
Related vocational education programs were then reviewed to
identify the skills being developed; and senior students indicated
their level of competence in those skills. The discrepancies
between required and obtained skill levels were then assessed.
These discrepancies formed the basis for recommendations for
changes'in vocational education programs. The study revealed the
need for the inclusion of a number of new skills in vocational
education programs.
Some of the systems created to identify emerging occupations could
be modified for use in assessing the relevance of emerging skills.
Some of the approacheS used in specific research and curriculum
development projects are applicable to the design of a system for
locating emerging skills.
Based on a review and synthesis of available information, it
appears that an effective system for monitoring emerging skills is
characterized by the following:
The utilization of a variety of data.
The involvement of vocational educators.
The utilization of information from ou*ide vocational education
(data from R&D labs, business, industry, and government).
Incentives for vocational educators to monitor the basic and
applied research and new technical diE,elopments relates to their
fields.
Continuous data collection, analysis, and forecasting. (The
vocational education curriculum development system must have.the
capacity for processing large volumes of data.)
Techniques for developing descriptions of future events, such as
the Delphi process.
The provision of Information that vocational educators can and will
use.
21
IMPLICATIONS FpR VOCATIONAL EDUCATION
It is critical that vocational education utilize curriculum
development procedures that are flexible, efficient, and
responsivkto emerging skills. New vocational education programs
will have to be developed to train students for existing jobs in
which the level of skill has escalated. Programs will also be
needed to train students for new occupations that emerge. In
addition, it will be necessary to retrain a large number of persons
who-are Already employed, some of them for new jobs.
Changing Philosophy . :
The key to making vocational education more responsive to emerging
skills mdy be to change the philosophy on which vocational
education is based. Vocational education programs. and curricula
have been based on what workers presently do in their jobs.
Emphasis ha's been placed on identifying present practices and
transmitting these4o persons enrolled in vocational education
programs. -
This process is effective when the knowledge and skill Content of
jobs is4elatively stable. However, whop ti's content of jobs is
changing, the process altowd the content of vocational education
programs to lag behind that of jobs related to them. In addition,
it does riot encourage vocational education to become involved in
aiding business and industry to make the transition to new
technology.
Basic questions vocational educators must consider are
these:.
1. Should vocational education remain primarily reactive to the
needs of business and industry relative to knowledge and skill
content of jobs? Perhaps vocational education should develop an
approach that has an appropriate combination of proactive and
reactive processes for identifying and making decisions on content
for vocational education programs.
2. Does vocational education have responsibility only for
transmitting existing occupational skills and knowledge? Perhaps
vocation& education should also be involved in creating and
refining new skills.
3. Is the responsibility of vocational education limited to working
with current technology only? Perhaps vocational education has the
responsibility to translate research results into new
technology.
4. Should vocational education programs be designed to prepare
people only for currently available jobs or clusters of jobs?
Perhaps vocational education should also be responslbl for
developing skills that will facilitate transition into new jobs as
technology changes or as individual aspirations and needs
change.
23
p Curriculum Development
Research and curriculum projects generally use the task analysis
approach for identifying vocational education program content. Many
also use labor market surveys. These methods illuminate the skills,
knowledge, and attitudes required in a job at the time the analyses
are completed and provide an estimate of the available job
openings. Some of these systems for developing and revising
vocational education programs are therefore quite complex.
Especially at the postsecondary level, a large number of steps go
into the curriculum development process In some instances, it takes
a minimum of two'years to implement a new program using these
systems. In many cases the complexity of the process makes it
nearly impossible to develop and implement a state-of-the-art
program.
In order to improve programs, vocational education needs to move
away from relying on task analyses and labor market surveys as
methods for identifying needs for programs and program content.
More comprehensive approaches to vocational education curriculum
development are needed. These approaches must provide processes for
acquiring a wide variety of data including forecasts of skill
requirements. They must provide decision-making models that permit
valid and effective use of this information in creating and
revising vocational education p ograms. Some other needs are as
follows:
Techniques for monitoring the knowledge and skill content of jobs
must become more sensitive to emerging skills. More extensive and
effective use should be made of on-site interviews with employees
and their supervisors. Vocational education evaluation follow- up
studies should include questions designed to acquire information on
emerging skills and trends in job content.
Delphi studies should be conducted at national and regional levels
to project the implications of new research developments and new
technology for the work place.
Incentives should be provided to encourage effbrts by vocational
educators to identify new developments in technology and the
implications of those developments for vocational education
programs. Resources should be made available to assist teachers'
efforts, including the latest technical literature and inservice
training programs.
Vocational education program and curriculum development processes
must become more flexible and efficient. The planning and
initiation of short-term, specialized programs related to new
technology must become a reality.
Research
Educators need to determine the types of data that are most
sensitive to and accurately predict emerging skills. Studies need
to be conducted with a variety of data to determine their
usefulness under various conditions.
Vocational education curriculum development systems that make
effective use of historical, current, and future-based data need
to-be developed, tested, and disseminated.
eI Various studies need to be done on the type of analysis unit
that should be used to analyze
jobs to identify elements upon which instruction can be based. The
task has served as a useful analysis element. However, tasks are
usually defined in relation to a specific job and are not
24
readily transferable. The connecting links between occupational
skills also need to be investigated.
There is a need to identify more specifically the environment ar i
conditions that encourage' and nurture the identification of
emerging Skills and their infusion into vocational education
programs. Research in this area would make a valuable contribution
to the knowledge available about the vocational education
curriculum development process.
A research approach that appears to have potential for assessing
the importance of emerging skills is the technology assessment
center (Halfin, Melick, and Nelson 1981). This center would
experiment with new technology and assess its relevance and
importance for vocational education. Suggestions for introducing
the technology into vocational education curricula would be
developed by the center staff. These suggestions would include
equipment lists and teacher and student materials.
Teacher Education
Vocational educators are the key to keeping vocation'sl
mi.y..ication programs current with the knowledge, skills, and
systems employed in industry. Their contiNed quest to keep up to
date with new and developing technology in their fields and their
willingless to change are essential to relevant vocational
education programs.
Teacher education programs at the preservice level must develop the
following characteristics in vocational educators.
Professional concern and motivation to keep current with new
technology.
Capacity to assimilate new knowledge and skills and infuse them
into existing courses.
Ability to use one or more futuristic techniques for forecasting
future events. (The Delphi technique would be an appropriate basic
technique in this area.)
Skill in interviewing employees and supervisors to identify new
technology and skills.
Knowledge of how a new technology develops and is transferred into
practice.
Capability to identify and monitor trends in technology related to
one's field.
Ability to use evaluation and follow-up data to identify new
skills.
Inservice education programs should provide vocational educators an
opportunity to develop the following knowledge, skills, and
attitudes.
Professional curiosity
Knowledge of current trends in technology and management procedures
in business and industry
Skill in monitoring changes in technology
25
31
Ability to use evaluation and follow-up data end advisory committee
input to identify emerging skills
Capacity to use the Delphi and DACUM processes and various survey
techniques to identify emerging skills
Ability to construct questions, conduct interviews, and analyze
interview data related to the technology used in business and
industry
Ability to use various types of data in developing curricula
Knowledge of ways of using computers to locate and retrieve data
from a data bank or library
Summary
The final two decades of the twentieth-Century will bring
significant changes in the technology, processes, and skills used
in business and industry Voc tional educators must be sensitive to
and involved with these changes. Should they fail to mo itor
emerging skills and translate them into vocational education
curricula, vocational progr ms will quickly become outdated.
26
SELECTED STUDIES UTILIZING PROCESSES FOR IDENTIFYING EMERGING
SKILLS
A Feasibility Study for Solar Technology. Waco, TX: Texas State
Technical Institute, April 1978. Vocational Field: Trade and
Industrial Education. Sample: Ninety:nine businesses currently
involved in the solar industry. Procedure Used: Survey. New Skills
and Trends Identified: The potential for job growth in the-solar
energy field is noted.jThe areas of computer science, chemistry,
mechanical technology, and solar techndlogy are identified as
important skill areas.
Arora, Mehar. Evaluation of Vocational, Technical and Adult
Education in Wisconsin: Delphi Conference. Menomonie, WI: Center
for Vocational, Technical and Adult Education, University of
Wisconsin-Stout, 1974.
Vocational Field: Vocational Education. Sample: Delphi panel
members selected from vocational education, business, industry,
government, and agriculture. Procedure Used: Delphi process. New
Skills and Trends Identified: Predicts a number of trends related
to vocational education. The trends toward small cars, home
computers, videotailing systems, multiple family dwellings,
do-it-yourself repairs, and automated manufacturing are forecast.
The importance and impact of each trend for vocational education
are also predicted. Specific emerging skills are not predicted'
because that was not one of the objectives of the study. However,
implications f6r new skills are readily apparent.
Bauer, Dennis. "New Dimensions for Office Reprographics." Business
EddcationForum, November 1975, pp. 16 & 19.
Vocational Field: Business Education. Sample: No information.
Procedure Used: Logical analysis of trends. e New Skiiis and Trends
Identified: New skills identified are related to the operation of
offset presses, special and automatic typewriters, copiers, and
multiple column layout.
Cannon, Francis R.; Armstrong, Gary; and Armstrong, Ruth. A Study
to Determine the Skills and Knowledges Required for Personnel in
Business Data Processing Centers: To Develop a Relevant Curriculum
for Secondary Data Processing Programs and for Data processing
.
Programs in Teacher Education. Shippensburg, PA: Shippensburg State
College, 1978. Vocational Field: Data Processing. Sample:
Pennsylvania businesses (1,851 from which 453 usable responses were
obtained). Procedure Used: Labor market survey. New Skills and
Trends Identified: Primarily identified trends in jobs in the
business data processing area. Some skill areas identified for more
emphasis are remote key entry of data, systems analysis,
programming applications, and communications.
Changing Workforce Needs With Implications for Higher Education.
Kenosha, Wi: Gateway Technical Institute, 1978. -
Vocational Field: Vocational Educatior.. Sample: Representatives
from business, industry, and education. Procedure Used:
Symposium.
29
I,
New Skills and Trends Identified: Presenters and discussion groups
identified a.variety of . skills that will take on more importance
in the years ahead. increased involvement of
employees in decision making will require more comprehensive
knowledge of how business enterprises function and more
sophisticated decision-making skills. The growing role of
information in business will require improved ability to (1)
analyze and use information, (2) solve problems, and (3)
communicate the ideas and facts ernhedded in data. With the
increasing rate of change (he capacity to change and adapt will be
important.
Continuation of Futuring the Business Education Curriculum Needs.
New York: Institute for Research and Development in Occupational
Education, City University of New York, July 1978.
Vocational Field: Business Education. Sample: Panel of experts.
Procedure Used: Conference. New Skills and Trends identified: Six
papers on business education and projected job needs are reported.
The papers focus on four main topics. Emerging skills are listed:
time management, problem solving, operat'ng videotape and playback
devices, human relations skills, communications, economics of
industrial organizations, and career decision making.
Dale, Dorothy; Klitzk a, Elizabeth; Larson, Charlene; and Gertner,
Betty. Third Annual CompOsite Report for S6.on:iary Vocational
Education in Wisconsin: 1979-80. Menomonie, WI: Center for
Vocational, Technical and Adult Education, University of
Wisconsin-Stout, 1980.
Vocational Field: Vocational Education. Sample: Fifty-six secondary
schools in Wisconsin. Procedure Used: Evaluation study. New Skills
and Trends Identified: Employer and grad e follow-up data indicated
satisfaction with the education and training provided by ocational
programs. No specific data were collected on emerging skills. Many
employers noted the need for more leadership training. Advisory
committee members indicated that they believed they had contributed
to curriculum development and the identification of specific
tasks.
Elliott, William, "Role and Responsibility of industry in the
Professional Development of Vocational Educators." A paper
presented at the 1978 Technical Assistance Conference, April 1978,
Columbus, Ohio.
Vocational Field: Vocational Education. Sample: No information.
Procedure Used: Review of related programs. New Skills and Trends
identified: The need for administrative structures and processes
for industry to utilize in educating vocational education teachers
is described along with the need for staff development mechanisms
to keep pace with changes in technology.
Halverson, Homer, et al. Job Opportunities Forecast for Washington
State, 1974 to 1985. Olympia WA: Washington State Commission for
Vocational Education, 1978.
Vocational Field. Vocational Education. Sample: Task force with
data inputs from an employment security office, U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and other government departments. Procedure Used:
Labor market survey. New Skills and Trends Idelitlfied: Findings
are listed in terms of job growth and emerging occupations.
30
Hogue, Ken. Identification and Analysis of Emerging Occupations in
Marketing and Distributive Educational Final Report. College
Station, PA: Texas A&M University, July 1979.
Vocational Field: Marketing and Distributive Education. .
Sample: Businesspersons (397) and distributive education
coordinators (318) in Texas. Procedure Used: Special survey: Two
survey forms were used .o collect job information. New Skills and
Trends Identified: Emerging jobs identified included travel agents,
foreign exchange clerk, inventory control assistant, and pharmacy
sales. A task analysis process was presented for use in identifying
specific skills enquired in these jobs.
IdentiffOation of New and Emerging Careers or Occupations in West
Virginia and Determination of the Feasibility of Providing
Vocational Education Programs. Pittsburgh, PA: Associated
Educational Consultants, 1979.
Vocational Field: Vocational Education. Sample: Two task
'orces`Orovided input. One was made up of specialists fi orn the
employment demand area and the second was composed of persons who
had knowledge of vocational education programs. Procedure Used: The
task forCes and an employer survey were used to provide projections
of job openirms. New Skills and trends Identified: The project
identified policy issues, projected changes in occupations, and a
planning process for new and emerging occupations. Some of
the
. emerging occupations identified were coal conversion
technologist, communications 'specialist, health equipment
technician, recreation equipment repair specialist, and solar
technician.
Inman, Thomas H., and Van Hook, Barry. "Internal Communication
Essential for Effective Organiiation Management." Business
Education Forum, February 1981, pp. 19-25.
Vocational Field: Business Education. Sample: No information.
Procedure Used: Logical analysis of information available in
business and industry. New Skills and Trends Identified: Ttie need
for new and expanded skills in the areas of communication,
leadership, interpersonal relationships, and self-concept is
noted.
Johnson, Charles E. A Comparative Analysis of Three Basic llesigns
for Competency Validation. Athens, GA: University of Georgia,
January 1977.
Vocational Field: Vocational Education. Sample: On-the-job workers.
Pocedure Used: Task analysis, product assessment, and logical
analysis. New Skills and Trends Identified: The researcher
concluded that each process is useful and that in some instances
there is value in using the three in combination. Logical analysis
was described as the most effective method for identifying changing
competencies and those that are based on values, attitudes, and
concepts.
Kaufman, Jacob J. Human Resource Development and Vocational
Education. College Station, Pr,. Pennsylvania State University, May
1975.
Vocational Field: Vocational Education. Sample No information.
Procedure Used: Synthesig of the authors research acitivites in
vocational education. New Skills and Trends !donna!: The study
suggests that new skills workers need to develop include (1) the
ability to learn new skills, (2) the capacity io accept more
responsibility, (3) flexibility, and (4) improved capacity to make
decisions.
31
3O
Lesch, Gerald. "A Welding Survey of the Blackhawk Technical
Institute Industries." Education specialist's thesis, University of
Wisconsin-Stout, 1975. -
Vocational Field: Trade and Industrial Education. Sample: A sample
of employers and employees in South Central Wisconsin. Procedure
Used: Task analysis with projections for five years. New Skills and
Trends Identified: The study reports that the use of several
welding processes are predicted to increase, for example, plasma
arc cutting and welding.
Maxwell, G.W. "Changes: Will They Never Cease?" Journal of Business
Education, November 1980, PP. 44-46.
Vocational Field: Business Education. Sample: No information.
Procedure Used: Logical analysis of current events and data. New
Skills and Trends Identified: Changes in population, society,
families, and jobs were forecast. The average age of the work force
will increase, and more married women will be employed. The
trend,toward the need for more white collar workers and clerical
workers will continue. These changes will have a definite impact on
the skills and knowledge needed in business and office jobs.
Recommended is more emphasis on work experience, simulation, and
gaming.
Maxwell, G.W., and West, Linda. Handbook for Developing Competency
Based Curricula for Newand Emerging Occupations. San Jose, CA: San
Jose State University, 1980.
Vocational Field: Vocational Education. Sample: An advisory
committee comprised of vocational education teachers, coordinators,
and administrators and a pilot-test committee that included
vocational education teachers horn high school and community
college districts. Procedure Used: Review of Ecr,t.iig systems,
interviews, and evaluation by the advisory and pilot-test
committees. New Skills and Trends identified: A handbook was
designed to assist vocational educators in preparing
competency-based curricula for new and emerging occupations.
Techniques for identiyfing new and emerging occupations, conducting
task analysis, and developing competency-based curricula are
discussed.
Meleen, Paulette, et al. Identifying and Planning for New and
Emerging Occupations: A Suggested Guide. Belmont, MA: March
1978.
Vocational Field: Vocational Education. Sample: National
statistics. Procedure Used: Analysis of legislation, technological
changes, occupational trends, and societal changes. New Skills and
Trends Identified: The project developed a process for reviewing
trends and changes in legislation, technology, society, and jobs to
identify new and emerging occupations. New and emerging occupations
identified in the study are: child advocate, energy efficiency
technician, halfway house resident manager, horticultural therapy
aide, industrial hygiene technician, nuclear quality assurance
inspector, physical security technician, podiatric assistant,
cryatal manufacturing worker, housing rehabilitation specialist,
and public safety communications operator.
Mo-ton, J.B., at al. Student and Employer Evaluation. Stillwater,
OK: State Department of Vocational, Technical and Adult
EducationResearch Division, 1977.
Vocational Field: Vocational Education. Sample: Graduates (1,215)
of secondary vocational and technical programs in Oklahoma and 106
of their employers.
32
ti
Procedure Used: Evaluation survey questionnaire. New Skills and
Trends Identified: The relevance of the skills taught in vocational
education programs was highly rated by graduates and employers. The
knowledge of teachers, quality of equipment, and employer
satisfaction with training of the graduates were rated. Graduates
did not have an opportunity to identify new or obsolete skills and
equipment. Employers were given an opportunity to list reason(s)
for,dissatisfaction with graduates.
Nelson, Orville. New and Emerging Occupations: A Process for
Monitoring and Identifying the Impacts for Vocational and Technical
Education. Menomonie, WI Center for Vocational, Technical and Adult
Education, University of Wisconsin-Stout, 1980.
Vocational Field: Vocational Education. Sample: No information.
Procedure Used: Logical analysis of previous research, data, and
labor market trends. New Skills and Trends ntlflad: This study
presents a process for identifying new occupations. !n order to de
t new and emerging occupations, changes and trends in technology,'
resources, lifesty r demography, and legislation must be
continuously monitored. These changes and trends need to be
analyzed to determine the implications for new jobs. Techniques
used to study the future, such as the Delphi and scenario
processes, should be used to forecast trends in technology.
Follow-up studies of graduates and their employers may signal
emerging needs. Tht procedure recommended is for vocational
educators to gather, analyze, and interpret data; decide if a
program is needed; write a job description; develop and validate a
job task list; and then add this input to the regular curriculum
development process. A lower risk approach is to develop units or
courses based on the emerging skill(s)'and use them in existing
programs.
Norton, Robert E. et al. The Identification and National'
Verification of Competencies Important to Secondary and
Post-Secbndary AdMinistration of Vocational Education Final Report:
Development of Competency-Based Instructional Materials for Local
Vocational Education AdministratorsPart I. Columbus, OH: The Center
for Vocational Education, The Ohio StateUniversity, 1977.
Vocational Field: Vocational and Technical.Education. Sample:
Administrators (130) a stratified national sample of secondary
administrators and postsecotidary vocational education programs.
One hundred and twenty usable instrument& were returned.
Procedure Used: A review of the literature and an administrative
task inventory were completed. A DACUM panel made up of twelve
administrators from four states met for three days to analyze
vocational education administrator tasks and idehtify related
competencies. New Skills and Trends Identified: Project staff found
the DACUMapproach to be valuable in Identifying a num. - of tasks
that were not found in the literature or identified in the task
survey. The ort recommended that the DACUM process be used
periodically to ensure up-to-d- : information about tasks.
Reed, Lester W., Jr. /* pational-Technical Program Need Assessment
Model. Austin, TX: University of T. as, 1979.
Vocational Field: Vocational and Technical Education. 'Sam*:
Employers, stydents, and adults. Procedure Used: Employer survey,
student survey, and adult survey questionnaires. New Skills and
Trends Identified: Needs assessment was utilized for identifying
present and projecting future human resources needs. The process,
which is based on information theory, is designed to provide
information at the program level and
33
encourages the use Of a variety of data. These include: graduate
placements, labor market statistics (national, state, and local),
potential program enrollees, wage profiles, and cost/benefit
ratios.
Smith, Harold T: "The Office of the Future: Impact of Business
Education." Business Education Forum,. March 1981, pp. 37-38..
A
Vocational Field: Business Education. Sample: No information. .
Procedure Used: Analysis of trends in technology. New Skills and
Trends identified: The; study predicts that intelligent machines
(for example, computer-controlled robs will simulate human prot
solving in the future, that communications will be substituted for
travel, and that secretaries will work at home and send their
output via telephone to the °thee. Occupations will become more
knowledge !mead and workers will need to be able to speak and
understand the terminology of the new technologies. They will also
need an understanding of how these technologies apply to their
jobs.
Sorensen, Robert P. "Perceived Priorities and Achievements of
Occupational Advisory Committee Func inns in the Wisconsin VTAE
System." Doctoral dissertafion, University of Wisconsin- Madison,
1974.
Vocational Field: Vocational and Technical Education. Sample: State
directors, advisory committee members, administrators, and teachers
in vocational education. Pnr*dure Used: Q-Sort. New Skills and
Trends Identified: Participants in the study identified (1) the
determination of program content, (2) the identification of
community vocational education needs, and (3) the identification of
equipment needs as three of the most important functions of
advisory committees. Identification of emerging skills was not
listed specifically but was implicit in the high priority
tasks.
Stuart, Stephen L. An Exploratory Study to Analyze New Skill
Content in Selected Occupations in Michigan and the Mechanism for
Its Translation into Vocational Education Curricula. Columbus, OH:
Battelle Columbus Laboratories, 1972.
Vocational Field: Vocational Education. Semple: Advisory committees
with representatives from labor, management, and vocational
education. Employers were also interviewed. Procedure Used:
Advisory committees helped to construct task lists for selected
occupations. These tasks were verified through employer interviews.
The verified lists were then compared with the competencies
developed by vocational education programs related to these areas.
New Skills and Trends Identified: The process disclosed programs
with varied levels of Irrelevant content. Some of these programs
were almost completely out of date. For some tasks, the skills
developed in the related vocational education. program did not meet
industry standards. The model presented for identifying emerging
skills includes task analyses, employer and graduate feedback,
discrepancy analyses contrasting task analysis results with program
content, and. specification of objectives in behavioral
terms.
Van Ausdle, Steven, ed. Vocational Education's Role in a Changing
Economy. Olympia, WA: Washington Department of Public Instruction
and State Board for Community College Edthcation, April 1978.
34
Vocational Vocational and Technical Education. Sample: Symposium of
representatives from business, industry, labor, agriculture,
government, and education. Procedure Used: Symposium. New Skills
and Trends Identified: Economists from education and industry noted
the problems in predicting economic trends. If forecasts are to be
made, they should be developed frequently. The need to improve
productivity and the increasing use of electronics in a variety of
jobs were discussed.
Wakin, B. ertha. "Business Dynamics: A New Direction for a New
Decade." Business Education Forum, February 1981, pp. 11-12.
Vocational Field: Business Education. Sample: Committee of business
executives, educators, and national experts. ProcedureUsed: A
comprehensive study of businesses in New York and a symposium in
which The results 91,t4e study were discussed. New and Trends
Identified: The study identified the need for /1) improved decision
making, human relations, and problem-solving skills, (2) a more cc
prehensive knowledge of our economic system, and (3) knowledge of
basic computer applications.
k Wallbrown, Rodney. "Keeping Up to DateA Must for Vo-Ag." The
Agricultural Education Magazine, March i981, pp. 5-6.
Vocational Field: Vocational AgricultUre. Sample: No information.
Procedure Used: Analysis of zhanges in agriculture. New Skills and
Trends Identified: The need to monitor literature, demonstrations,
and applications of new practices, equipment, and genetic
techniques is noted in this article.
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38
(1 )I 4
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39