Does Pre-Season Buzz Really Matter? · 2019-09-16 · and the Murphy Brown reboot). Many series that received little pre-season notice became long-running hits (examples include,

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Bosch – “the best procedural drama on television.” Fleabag – “a uniquely inventive gem.” -The Sternberg Report

_

The Sternberg Report ©2019

September 2019 #73

Does Pre-Season Buzz Really Matter? By Steve Sternberg

The broadcast networks traditionally unveil their fall schedules in May and promote them to potential viewers throughout the summer.

Ad-supported cable networks tend to debut much of their new original scripted series between June and August (when the broadcast networks air mostly repeats, reality, and game shows), although

some new shows do premiere in the fall and winter as well. Streaming services, such as Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, and CBS All Access, don’t adhere

to traditional concepts of seasons, and drop new series whenever they are ready to go, or simply when they think it is the best time to do so.

Some TV shows generate a considerable amount of buzz before they premiere, while others fly under the radar. This raises some obvious questions.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________________The Sternberg Report ©2019

2

• How much does pre-season buzz affect a new show’s success potential?

• Does it matter more for certain types of shows than for others?

• Does it matter more for broadcast or cable series?

• Does it matter more for one network versus another?

• How have the sources, level, and impact of buzz changed over the years?

Sources of Pre-Season Buzz Up until the mid-2000s, the broadcast networks aired almost exclusively repeats during the summer

and there was virtually no television-based news than previewing new fall series. This provided ample time to create buzz. That was before cable networks aired numerous original scripted series

during those months, the broadcast networks started airing reality, game shows, and limited run series, and streaming services began to grow. Viewers’ attention now turns to new broadcast series later and later each season.

Syndicated news magazine series such as Entertainment Tonight, Extra, and Access Hollywood,

along with newspapers and magazines such as People and Entertainment Weekly, used to be the main sources of new series promotion and buzz.

I was among the pundits appearing on Entertainment Tonight every year discussing my agency’s projected new season hits (when I was head of TV Research at Bozell, TN Media, and Magna

Global). My reports, as well as others from my agency peers would also be quoted in the consumer and trade printed and online press (New York Times, USA Today, TV Guide, Ad Age, Broadcasting

& Cable, MediaPost, etc.).

Over the past decade, social media has become a key component in promoting new series as well.

In 2009, Glee became the first network series to become successful because of online promotion. It

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


3

debuted to relatively low ratings following that year’s American Idol finale in May. But virtually non-stop promotion, online music videos and behind-the-scenes clips, generated a tremendous amount

of buzz, turning the show into a hit when it premiered the following fall.

The Comic Con Effect Studios send reps to the big pop-culture Comic Con event in San Diego every July, where series

stars and producers join panels geared to generating pre-season buzz among hardcore fans, which the network publicity machines try to make sure will spill over to the general public. Anything related to superheroes or sci-fi generates a significant amount of buzz.

Stars of returning and new series also show up at the various smaller comic cons across the country

throughout the year (although more stars from cable than broadcast series attend those). The New York Comic Con takes place in October, and now rivals the San Diego event in both size and the number of all-star panels.

Here’s a look at the major TV show related panels and presentations at this year’s San Diego Comic

Con and those planned for the upcoming New York Comic Con. While the production studios typically host these events, I’m listing them based on the network or streaming service that airs them. Following the New York Comic Con in the first week of October, I will be issuing a more in-depth

report on these and other pop-culture conventions that take place across the country every year. Several of them draw more than 100,000 attendees annually.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


4

San Diego Comic Con 2019 TV Panels ABC Emergence (new), Stumptown (new), Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., The Rookie CBS Evil (new) CW Batwoman (new), Nancy Drew (new), Legacies, Arrow, Supergirl, Black Lightning, The

Flash, Supernatural, Riverdale FOX Prodigal Son (new), Bless the Harts (new), NeXt (new), Bob’s Burgers, What Just

Happened?, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Orville NBC Superstore, The Good Place, Brooklyn Nine Nine Adult Swim Robot Chicken, Rick and Morty, Primal (new) AMC The Walking Dead, Fear the Walking Dead, The Terror: Infamy, Preacher, NOS4A2 Cartoon Transformers: Cyberverse, Teen Titans GO, DC Super Hero Girls, Infinity Train (new) Comedy Central Crank Yankers Disney Channel Ducktales

FX What We Do In the Shadows, Mayans M.C. FXX Archer History Project Blue Book Nickelodeon SpongeBob SquarePants (20th anniversary) SYFY Van Helsing, Wynonna Earp, The Magicians TBS American Dad, Snowpiercer (new) Travel Ghost Adventures Live! Epix Pennyworth (new) HBO Game of Thrones, Westworld, His Dark Materials (new) Starz The Rook Amazon Prime Undone (new), The Boys (new), Carnival Row (new), The Expanse, The Man in the High

Castle CBS All Access Star Trek Discovery, Star Trek: Picard (new), Star Trek: Lower Decks (new) DC Universe Harley Quinn (new), Titans, Doom Patrol, Young Justice: Outsiders Hulu Veronica Mars, Solar Opposites (new) Netflix The Order, Cursed (new), The Witcher (new), The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance (new) Shudder Creepshow YouTube Cobra Kai, Impulse

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


5

New York Comic Con 2019 TV Panels (scheduled as of this writing) ABC Emergence (new) CBS Evil (new) CW Charmed, Riverdale, Roswell, New Mexico, Black Lightning, Legacies, Nancy Drew (new),

Katy Keene (new) FOX Prodigal Son (new), NeXt (new) NBC Manifest, Lincoln (new) Adult Swim Robot Chicken, One Punch Man, Primal (new) AMC The Walking Dead, Untitled third Walking Dead series (new) Disney Channel The Owl House (new) FX DEVS

FXX Archer Nickelodeon Spongebob Squarepants, Are You Afraid of te Dark SYFY Deadly Class TBS Full Frontal With Samantha Bee, The Misery Index (new), Snowpiercer (new) TNT All Elite Wrestling (new) TruTV Impractical Jokers, Tacoma FD HBO Watchmen (new) Starz Outlander Amazon Prime Jack Ryan, The Expanse CBS All Access Tell Me a Story, Star Trek: Discovery, Star Trek: Picard (new) DC Universe Titans, Harley Quinn (new) Disney+ Marvel’s Hero Project (new) Hulu Marvel’s Runaways, Castle Rock, Reprisal (new), The Orville (formerly on FOX) Netflix Big Mouth, Lost in Space, 13 Reasons Why, She-Ra and the Princesses of Power, The

Dragon Prince, Castlevania, Daybreak (new), SEIS MANOS (new), The Last Kids on Earth (new)

Shudder Creepshow YouTube Impulse

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


6

Impact of Pre-Season Buzz A number of new series with strong pre-season buzz have become instant successes (e.g., Desperate Housewives, Glee, The Walking Dead, Better Call Saul, and This is Us), while others have failed to find an audience (see Bionic Woman, Flash Forward, The Bastard Executioner, Pitch,

and the Murphy Brown reboot).

Many series that received little pre-season notice became long-running hits (examples include, NCIS,

Grey’s Anatomy, Mad Men, The Big Bang Theory, Sons of Anarchy, and Rizzoli & Isles, to name just a few).

It is interesting, and perhaps counter-intuitive that over the past 15 or 20 years, the success rate of

all new broadcast television series has been essentially the same as those that generated the most pre-season buzz – roughly one-third. It’s also interesting to note that of all the series which have succeeded during the same period, about two-thirds did not receive a significant amount of pre-

season buzz.

Pre-season buzz seems to have more of an impact on cable series, primarily because there are fewer of them and their ratings threshold for success is significantly lower than for broadcast networks. They also often appeal to a more niche audience to whom it is easier to promote. Since

2001, half of the most buzzed about new ad-supported cable shows became successful. But there were nearly four times as many cable series that became hits without the benefit pre-season buzz.

One of the biggest factors here, of course, is that unlike the broadcast networks, cable nets long ago realized the benefit of cross-promoting one another’s programming.

There are several reasons why pre-season buzz has traditionally had little impact on whether or not a new broadcast series becomes successful:

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


7

• Despite the fact that their audiences tend to skew older, newspapers, comic con, and syndicated

entertainment TV shows focus more on the younger, sexier series, rather than on shows their own viewers are most likely to watch. This has started to change over the past few seasons.

• The average median age of the typical broadcast series is over 50. This is not necessarily the same audience that is buzzing the most about new series online. We have seldom seen non-

super hero CBS shows get as much pre-season buzz other networks, but it has had more new series success than any other network over the past 15 years.

• Internet and comic con buzz are often heavily skewed toward sci-fi and super-hero series or shows with former sci-fi stars attached. Except for CW super hero shows, most broadcast efforts

in this category tend not to live up to the hype. Cable networks have traditionally had more success in this area.

• Most social-media-based pre-season buzz comes from people who might have seen a trailer

online, but have not seen the full pilot and don’t know if the show is actually any good.

• People who discuss new shows online are not necessarily going to watch them on television –

particularly if the series is scheduled opposite one of their favorites. This remains true even in today’s DVR, streaming video, time-shifted world (how much longer this continues to be true,

however, remains to be seen).

• The impact of social media outlets, such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Snapchat, is less

clear at this point. There does seem to be some correlation with big-event programming – major sports or political events, award shows, season finales, etc. But social media is currently more

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


8

predictive of shows that are already on, rather than new series. Discussions about shows people have already been watching, or have recently discovered, might provide an indication of whether

a show is poised to grow or decline. Social media’s impact on new series performance of scripted regular series, however, has so far been nominal at best.

Over the past 20 years, some of the most successful series received little pre-season attention. These include, Without a Trace, Nip/Tuck (2002/03), NCIS, Two and a Half Men (2003/04), Lost,

Grey’s Anatomy, House, The Closer (2004/05), Criminal Minds, How I Met Your Mother, Bones,

Psych (2005/06), 30 Rock, Mad Men, Army Wives, Burn Notice (2006/07), The Big Bang Theory,

Breaking Bad, In Plain Sight (2007/08), The Mentalist, Castle, Sons of Anarchy, Justified, Warehouse

13, Leverage, Royal Pains (2008/09), Modern Family, The Good Wife, Rizzoli & Isles, White Collar (2009/10), Hawaii Five-O, Blue Bloods, Hell on Wheels, Falling Skies (2010/11), Scandal, Person of

Interest, American Horror Story (2011/12), Chicago Fire, The Americans (2012/13), Chicago P.D.,

The Last Ship (2013/14), Scorpion, Blackish, Empire (2014/15), Quantico, Into the Badlands, Queen

of the South, The Outsiders, Underground (2015/16), Bull, Lethal Weapon, The Sinner (2016/17),

The Good Doctor, Seal Team, SWAT (2017/18), Single Parents, Manifest, New Amsterdam (2018/19).

Who remembers Push Nevada, Firefly (2002/03), Coupling, Miss Match, Line of Fire (2003/04), Joey,

LAX, Jack & Bobby (2004/05), Commander in Chief (2005/06), Studio 60 (2006/07), Pushing Daisies,

Bionic Woman, Lipstick Jungle (2007/08), Dollhouse, 90210 (2008/09) Flash Forward (2009/10), Lone Star (2010/11), Charlie’s Angels, Terra Nova (2011/12), 666 Park Avenue (2012/13), The Crazy

Ones, Michael J. Fox Show (2013/14), Constantine (2014/15), The Muppets, Heroes Reborn, The

Bastard Executioner (2015/16), Pitch (2016/17), or Marvel’s Inhumans (2017/18)? They were among the most heavily buzzed shows right before their respective seasons. None made it to season two.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


9

Evaluating series with the most pre-season buzz and whether a show is a success is, of course, somewhat subjective (except for the instant blockbusters). You might quibble with a few of my

entries. Cable series have much lower audience thresholds of success than those on the broadcast networks, and tend to be given more time to build an audience. Should a show like Mad Men, which never had strong ratings be called a success? Well, it was on for seven seasons, won multiple

Emmys and had a major impact on the medium. But the way you need to look at the impact of pre-season buzz is not whether the show lasts a long time or is eventually successful. It only matters

how the show performs and impacts its host network during its first season. Mad Men still qualifies in that it was critically acclaimed, performed better than the network’s average programming, and was instrumental in effectively re-branding the network.

Mr. Robot (USA) did not make the cut because its hype and critical acclaim have not translated into

good ratings, which, unless you are in the business, you probably wouldn’t know from the press coverage. Supergirl did well after moving from CBS to CW– but despite being among the CBS’s top-10 rated series, it was essentially canceled by the network.

I’ve been analyzing the television business for more than 30 years, and wrote annual TV Fall Preview

reports for my company’s staff, advertiser clients, and the press. I was able to refer to all of them while writing this piece (in addition to my own recollections from each season).

The chart on the following pages shows new ad-supported original scripted series on broadcast and ad-supported cable since 2001 and compares the shows that received the most pre-season buzz to

those that were successful during their initial season. Going into the 2019-20 primetime TV season, I’m listing several shows as receiving the most buzz. But there does seem to be less enthusiastic buzz for ad-supported new series over the past few seasons than any in recent memory. This could

be because there is so much fast-forwarding through commercials that many people aren’t seeing

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


10

the promos and have no idea what’s coming on this fall, or it could be that there are so many original scripted series on cable during the summer and streaming services year-round that most people

don’t focus on the new broadcast season as early as they once did. Nevertheless, this lack of buzz does not mean there won’t be successful new series. Just as heavy buzz does not correlate with success, lack of buzz does not correlate with failure. It should be noted that 6 of the top-10 rated

primetime series this season –This is Us, Manifest, The Good Doctor, Young Sheldon, FBI, and New

Amsterdam – debuted over the past three seasons (and only two, This is Us and Young Sheldon (a

spinoff of mega-hit, The Big Bang Theory) generated much pre-season buzz.

Pre-Season Buzz vs. Success

Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2001/02 Bob Patterson (ABC)

Philly (ABC) Emeril (NBC) Watching Ellie (NBC) 24 (FOX) Enterprise (UPN) Smallville (WB)

The Guardian (CBS) Crossing Jordan (NBC) 24 (FOX) Smallville (WB) The Shield (FX) Monk (USA)

2002/03 8 Simple Rules (ABC) Push Nevada (ABC) CSI: Miami (CBS) Boomtown (NBC) Girls Club (FOX) Firefly (FOX) Everwood (WB)

CSI: Miami (CBS) Without a Trace (CBS) Still Standing (CBS) Half and Half (UPN) Nip/Tuck (FX)

2003/04 Line of Fire (ABC) Coupling (NBC) Whoopi (NBC) Miss Match (NBC) Skin (FOX) Arrested Development (FOX) Tarzan and Jane (WB) Rescue Me (FX) The 4400 (USA) Stargate Atlantis (Syfy)

NCIS (CBS) Two and a Half Men (CBS) Cold Case (CBS) Las Vegas (NBC) The O.C. (FOX) One Tree Hill (WB) Rescue Me (FX) The 4400 (USA)

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


11

Pre-Season Buzz vs. Success Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2004/05 Desperate Housewives (ABC)

CSI: NY (CBS) LAX (NBC) Law & Order: Trial By Jury (NBC) Father of the Pride (NBC) Joey (NBC) Jack and Bobby (WB) Battlestar Galactica (SyFy)

Desperate Housewives (ABC) Lost (ABC) Grey’s Anatomy (ABC) Boston Legal (ABC) CSI: NY (CBS) Numb3ers (CBS) The Office (NBC) Medium (NBC) House (FOX) American Dad (FOX) Battlestar Galactica (Syfy) The Closer (TNT)

2005/06 Commander in Chief (ABC) New Adv. Of Old Christine (CBS) My Name is Earl (NBC) Prison Break (FOX) Everybody Hates Chris (UPN)

Criminal Minds (CBS) Ghost Whisperer (CBS) How I Met Your Mother (CBS) Bones (FOX) Prison Break (FOX) Supernatural (WB) Everybody Hates Chris (UPN) Kyle XY (ABC Family) Eureka (SyFy) Psych (USA)

2006/07 Ugly Betty (ABC) The Nine (ABC) Jericho (CBS) Heroes (NBC) Friday Night Lights (NBC) Studio 60 (NBC) Damages (FX) Saving Grace (TNT)

Ugly Betty (ABC) Brothers and Sisters (ABC) Heroes (NBC) 30 Rock (NBC) Mad Men (AMC) Army Wives (Lifetime) Saving Grace (TNT) Burn Notice (USA)

2007/08 Private Practice (ABC) Cavemen (ABC) Pushing Daisies (ABC) Cane (CBS) Bionic Woman (NBC) Lipstick Jungle (NBC) Gossip Girl (CW)

Private Practice (ABC) The Big Bang Theory (CBS) Gossip Girl (CW) Secret Life of an Amer. Teen (AFAM) Breaking Bad (AMC) Law & Order: Criminal Intent (USA) In Plain Sight (USA)

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


12

Pre-Season Buzz vs. Success Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2008/09 My Own Worst Enemy (NBC)

Dollhouse (FOX) Fringe (FOX) 90210 (CW)

Castle (ABC) The Mentalist (CBS) Fringe (FOX) Sons of Anarchy (FX) Justified (FX) Warehouse 13 (Syfy) Leverage (TNT) Royal Pains (USA)

2009/10 Flash Forward (ABC) Private Practice (ABC) NCIS: LA (CBS) Glee (FOX) Melrose Place (CW) Vampire Diaries (CW) Men of a Certain Age (TNT) Southland (TNT) Hot in Cleveland (TV Land)

Modern Family (ABC) The Middle (ABC) Rookie Blue (ABC) NCIS: LA (CBS) The Good Wife (CBS) The Mentalist CBS) Glee (FOX) Vampire Diaries (CW) Drop Dead Diva (Lifetime) Hot in Cleveland (TV Land) Rizolli & Isles (TNT) White Collar (USA)

2010/11 No Ordinary Family (ABC) Hawaii Five-O (CBS) $#*! My Dad Says (CBS) Law & Order: LA (NBC) Outlaw (NBC) Lone Star (FOX) The Walking Dead (AMC) The Killing (AMC)

Hawaii Five-O (CBS) Mike & Molly (CBS) Blue Bloods (CBS) Raising Hope (FOX) The Walking Dead (AMC) Hell on Wheels (AMC) Louie (FX) Portlandia (IFC) Awkward (MTV) Teen Wolf (MTV) Franklin & Bash (TNT) Falling Skies (TNT) Suits (TNT) Covert Affairs (USA)

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


13

Pre-Season Buzz vs. Success Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2011/12 Charlie’s Angels (ABC)

Once Upon a Time (ABC) Revenge (ABC) GCB (ABC) Pan Am (ABC) Terra Nova (FOX) Touch (FOX) New Girl (FOX) Smash (NBC) The Playboy Club (NBC) Ringer (CW) Major Crimes (TNT)

Once Upon a Time (ABC) Scandal (ABC) 2 Broke Girls (CBS) Person of Interest (CBS) New Girl (FOX) Longmire (A&E) Always Sunny in Phila. (FX) American Horror Story (FX) Flashpoint (ION) Major Crimes (TNT)

2012/13 Nashville (ABC) 666 Park Avenue (ABC) Go On (NBC) Revolution (NBC) Arrow (CW) Beauty & The Beast (CW) Bates Motel (A&E)

Nashville (ABC) Elementary (CBS) Under the Dome (CBS) The Following (FOX) Chicago Fire (NBC) Arrow (CW) Bates Motel (A&E) Orphan Black (BBCA) Being Mary Jane (BET) The Americans (FX) Vikings (History) Devious Maids (Life) Defiance (Syfy)

2013/14 Marvel Agents of Shield (ABC) Once Upon…Wonderland (ABC) Super Fun Night (ABC) The Crazy Ones (CBS) Hostages (CBS) Extant (CBS) 24: Live Another Day (FOX) Sleepy Hollow (FOX) The Blacklist (NBC) Michael J. Fox Show (NBC) Fargo (FX)

Marvel Agents of Shield (ABC) The Goldbergs (ABC) Mom (CBS) 24: Live Another Day (FOX) Brooklyn Nine Nine (FOX) Sleepy Hollow (FOX) The Blacklist (NBC) Chicago PD (NBC) Night Shift (NBC) Originals (CW) Fargo (FX) The Strain (FX) When Calls the Heart (Hall) The Last Ship (TNT) Murder in the First (TNT)

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


14

Pre-Season Buzz vs. Success Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2014/15 How to Get Away - Murder (ABC)

Marvel’s Agent Carter (ABC) Gotham (FOX) Constantine (NBC) The Flash (CW) Better Call Saul (AMC) Mr. Robot (USA)

How to Get Away - Murder (ABC) Blackish (ABC) Madam Secretary (CBS) NCIS: New Orleans (CBS) Scorpion (CBS) Gotham (FOX) Empire (FOX) Mysteries of Laura (NBC) The Flash (CW) Better Call Saul (AMC) Scream (MTV) The Librarians (TNT)

2015/16 The Muppets (ABC) Scream Queens (FOX) The X-Files (FOX) Heroes Reborn (NBC) Blindspot (NBC) DC Legends of Tomorrow (CW) Fear the Walking Dead (AMC) Preacher (AMC) The Bastard Executioner (FX) Animal Kingdom (TNT)

Quantico (ABC) Life in Pieces (CBS) The X-Files (FOX) Blindspot (NBC) Shades of Blue (NBC) DC Legends of Tomorrow (CW) Fear the Walking Dead (AMC) Preacher (AMC) Into the Badlands (AMC) Chesapeake Shores (Hall) Animal Kingdom (TNT) Queen of the South (USA) Underground (WGNA)

2016/17 Designated Survivor (ABC)

Riverdale (CW) Prison Break (FOX) The Exorcist (FOX) Pitch (FOX) This is Us (NBC) Timeless (NBC) The Good Place (NBC) Atlanta (FX) Legion (FX) Falling Water (USA)

Designated Survivor (ABC) Kevin Can Wait (CBS) Bull (CBS) Riverdale (CW) MacGyver (FOX) Lethal Weapon (FOX) This is Us (NBC) The Good Place (NBC) Atlanta (FX) Legion (FX) Taboo (FX) Snowfall (FX) Queen Sugar (OWN) Claws (TNT) The Sinner (USA) Mr. Mercedes (Aud.)

_______________________________________________________________________________________________


15

Pre-Season Buzz vs. Success Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2017/18 Marvel’s Inhumans (ABC)

Roseanne/The Conners (ABC) Young Sheldon (CBS) Will & Grace (NBC) The Gifted (FOX) Ghosted (FOX) The Orville (FOX) Marvel’s Cloak & Dagger (Freeform) Pose (FX) Krypton (SYFY)

The Good Doctor (ABC) Roseanne (ABC) Young Sheldon (CBS) Seal Team (CBS) S.W.A.T. (CBS) Will & Grace (NBC) The Orville (FOX) Marvel’s Cloak & Dagger (Freeform) Lodge 49 (AMC) The Terror (AMC) Killing Eve (BBCA) Yellowstone (Par) Pose (FX)

2018/19 A Million Little Things (ABC) The Rookie (ABC) Magnum PI Murphy Brown (CBS) Charmed (CW) Legacies (CW) Beverly Hills 90210 (FOX) Mayans MC (FX) The Purge (USA) PLL: The Perfectionists (Freeform)

A Million Little Things (ABC) The Rookie (ABC) Single Parents (ABC) Bless This Mess (ABC) The Neighborhood (CBS) Magnum PI (CBS) Manifest (NBC) New Amsterdam Mayans MC (FX) Mr. Inbetween (FX) The Purge (USA) Project Blue Book (History)

2019/20

Mixed-ish (ABC) Emergence (ABC) Stumptown (ABC) Evil (CBS) Batwoman (CW)

Programs in bold are in both categories

Documents

Does Pre-Season Buzz Really Matter? · 2019-09-16 · and the Murphy Brown reboot). Many series that received little pre-season notice became long-running hits (examples include,