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SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 1
Scenario Fitting
by SCEPTIKAT
Does This Make Sense To You?
Narrated by Andrew Mather
Part 8 – “Man killed by shark dies of
coronavirus”
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 2
What areas should we look at?
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
Action if acting in the interest
of the population
UK government action
TRACK SEPARATELY
Keep track of various
categories of deaths: those
that very likely died *of* covid
vs *with* covid; those with the
virus but no symptoms vs
those that weren’t tested but
had covid like symptoms –
report these separately
LUMP EVERYTHING
Counting everything including
where the virus was present
even if asymptomatic and not
the cause of death as well as
‘assumed’ cases based on no
testing; with the result that the
virus appears far more deadly
to the public than it is
8. The deaths
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 3
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
Let’s start with looking at the number of covid cases
reported.
This is a largely meaningless number because of the
overwhelming prevalence of asymptomatic/mild
cases. The majority of those infected have no reason
to get tested.
Any country can report more covid cases simply by
choosing to test more people.
8. The deathsNumber of covid cases
https://en.as.com/en/2020/03/17/football/1584480211_463872.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-8108611/Coronavirus-
UK-Callum-Hudson-Odoi-speaks-time-testing-positive.html
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 4
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
The initially very limited availability
of tests meant that the number of
*reported* cases was going to rise
even if the number of cases was not.
Initially even if you HAD symptoms,
you couldn’t get tested unless you
were over 65, or couldn’t work from
home, or worked for the NHS!
8. The deathsNumber of covid cases
https://patient.info/news-and-features/covid-19-who-can-get-tested-for-coronavirus-under-the-new-uk-guidance
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 5
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
The "bump in cases" in Leicester
for example just reflected a bump
in testing.
8. The deaths
Pillar 1 (green): swab testing in Public Health England (PHE)
labs and NHS hospitals for those with a clinical need, and
health and care workers
Pillar 2 (red): swab testing for the wider population, as set
out in government guidance
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 6
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
Early on, mostly only very serious cases
were identified (plus celebrity cases, of
course).
Indeed it is the case that with more testing,
the reported fatality rates have been falling
as more mild cases were tested.
8. The deathsNumber of covid cases
https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1274945422545600518
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 7
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
As group immunity would stop the disease
spreading, finding a large number of
asymptomatic and mild cases is excellent news.
The headlines would have you believe that
“finding a number of new cases” is something
terrifyingly dire – when in reality it shows that
the virus is much less dangerous and much more
widespread than previously suggested.
8. The deathsNumber of covid cases
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 8
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikatThe number of reported
cases is quite arbitrary
already based on how
much testing is done and
whether mild cases are
tested, but the utter
unreliability of tests makes
this even worse.
Various studies found that
about half of the positives
were false positives. One
study found the false
positive rate to be over
80%.
8. The deathsCovid tests are unreliable
https://taiwanenglishnews.com/in-the-midst-of-viral-
panic-everybody-ignores-the-problem-of-false-positives-
and-they-call-for-more-tests/
https://www.collective-
evolution.com/2020/03/16/study-suggests-
potential-high-rate-of-false-positives-for-covid-
19-testing/
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 9
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
Even the proponents of
covid tests deem the
antibody test “not
reliable enough” and
the antigen test less
good than the PCR
test.
So how good is the
best testing method,
the PCR (polymerase
chain reaction) test?
8. The deathsCovid tests are unreliable
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-
shots/2020/05/01/847368012/how-reliable-are-covid-
19-tests-depends-which-one-you-
mean?t=1593533554962
Diagnostic or PCR test
Generally speaking, these are the most reliable tests.
Antibody test
In general, these tests aren't reliable enough for
individuals to act based on the results.
Antigen test
Researchers do not expect it to be as accurate as the
PCR diagnostic test, but it is possible the antigen
tests could be used to screen patients for infection.
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 10
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
As it turns out…not that great.
The inventor of the test himself (for
which he won the Nobel prize) said the
test should not be used to detect
viruses.
8. The deathsCovid tests are unreliable
http://transmissionsmedia.com/the-
ebola-tests-inventor-says-the-test-is-
unreliable/
https://www.weblyf.com/2020/05/coronavirus-the-truth-about-pcr-test-kit-from-the-inventor-and-other-experts/
“The idea these kits can isolate a specific virus like covid-19 is nonsense.”
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 11
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
In fact, the PCR test
has an inglorious
history including
wrongly
“identifying” a false
whooping cough
epidemic.
And maybe all it
tells you is that you
may have had the
common cold.
8. The deathsCovid tests are unreliable
https://dartmed.dartmouth.edu/spring07/html/vs_cough.php
http://www.careclubusa.com/News/hazards-of-modern-whooping-cough-tests/
https://twitter.com/DavidTa69192197/status/1278004782603657217
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 12
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
All over the world, the accuracy
of the tests was found to be
poor.
The experience of Tanzania in
particular grabbed headlines
where various fruits and
animals tested positive for
covid.
8. The deathsCovid tests are unreliable
The Czech Republic has also found itself on the short end
of a similar bargain, finding out the 300,000 kits it’d bought
this week for $1.83 million to carry out its 900 daily tests
were only 20 percent accurate. The EU Medicine Agency’s
guidelines, on par with the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention’s (CDC), require that tests be 80
percent accurate on average.
Spain’s press is reporting that 30 percent of the kits — 20
percent in the Czech Republic’s case — were valid.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/china-challenges-the-world-with-flawed-covid-19-te/
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 13
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
The President of Tanzania John
Magufuli, who is also a chemist, did
not trust the World Health
Organization or their coronavirus
testing.
He secretly had a variety of
animals, fruits and vehicle oil tested
at the national laboratory.
8. The deathsCovid tests are unreliable
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/president-tanzania-didnt-trust-sent-samples-
sheep-goats-bunny-trees-fruit-car-oil-covid-testing-results/
https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idOVCCIUZCJ
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 14
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
Even more shocking is
experience of some nurses
who sent in unused swabs
for testing – they all came
back positive.
This cannot even be the
failure of the test, more
likely outright fraud.
8. The deathsCovid tests are unreliable
https://twitter.com/queenalmamarie/status/12
77626638105292800
https://twitter.com/Abrooksy77/status/1277778961385357318
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 15
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
Could this get worse? Yes.
A lot of the coronavirus tests
were found to have been
contaminated with the virus!
Not only does the test not test
for covid with any accuracy, it
may infect you with covid.
Is this by accident? Each time?
8. The deathsCovid tests are unreliable
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/test-kits-
contaminated-new-brunswick-1.5534125
https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-
tests-uk-contaminated-covid-19
https://www.newsmax.com/us/test-kits-
contaminated-pandemic-
washington/2020/04/22/id/964199/
https://arstechnica.com/s
cience/2020/04/cdcs-
failed-coronavirus-tests-
were-tainted-with-
coronavirus-feds-confirm/
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 16
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
A healthcare worker’s
experience in two nursing
homes seemed to suggest
that after the mandatory
testing the nursing homes
went from having zero
cases to having many with
lots of people dying.
8. The deathsCovid tests are unreliable
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 17
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
So, based on the tests, we have very
little idea whether someone does or
doesn’t have covid.
What happens then when someone
dies? Well, we don’t require either a
definite assertion that covid was the
likely cause of death or a positive covid
test to class a death a “covid fatality”.
Number of deaths inflated
8. The deaths
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-way-covid-deaths-are-being-counted-is-a-national-scandal
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 18
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
At a time when accurate death
statistics would be particularly
important, the rules have been
changed in ways that make them less
reliable than ever.
For the reported “covid deaths”, we
don’t know if the disease was actually
present, and if it was, we don’t know if
it was responsible for the death.
Number of deaths inflated
8. The deaths
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-way-covid-deaths-are-being-counted-is-a-national-scandal
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 19
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
Instead of trying to get better at determining the
cause of death, the sneaky term “died with covid”
was introduced for cases where the virus may have
been present but there was no reason to believe it
was the primary cause of death.
The official Czech estimate says 60% of those who
had the virus and died did NOT die *of* the virus.
No similar estimate was attempted in the UK.
Number of deaths inflated
8. The deaths
https://english.radio.cz/official-covid-19-not-primary-cause-death-60-percent-those-who-have-died-disease-8681831
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 20
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
From 29 March the numbers of ‘Covid deaths’ have
included all cases where Covid-19 was simply
mentioned on the death certificate — irrespective
of positive testing and whether or not it may have
been incidental to, or directly responsible for, the
death. From 29 April the numbers include the care
home cases simply considered likely to be Covid-19.
Sometimes even murder is reported as “died with
covid”…
Number of deaths inflated
8. The deaths
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 21
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
It might have been possible to have accurate data by
examining the deceased. But the Chief Coroner issued
guidance on 26 March which seemed designed to keep
Covid-19 cases out of the coronial system.
Normally, two doctors are needed to certify a death, one of
whom has been treating the patient or who knows them and
has seen them recently. That has changed. For Covid-19 only,
the certification can be made by a single doctor, and there is
no requirement for them to have examined, or even met, the
patient.
Number of deaths inflated
8. The deaths
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Chief-Coroner-Guidance-No.-34-COVID-19_26_March_2020-.pdf
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 22
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
BMA letter instructs GPs that
a telephone consultation in
the last 28 days is sufficient to
establish that the person may
have had covid like symptoms.
In such a case the death
certificate must state
coronavirus as the cause of
death!
Number of deaths inflated
8. The deaths
https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2284/bma-letter-to-moj-death-certification-in-covid-19.pdf
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 23
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
BMA guidance encourages classifying even low
probability cases as covid deaths.
The BMA letter on “Verification of Death,
Completion of Medical Certificates of Cause of
Death” (April) says “it is important that likely
covid-19 deaths are reported as such”.
This has led to some doctors going so far as saying
“here we are putting all elderly deaths as covid-
19”.
Number of deaths inflated
8. The deaths
https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2324/bma-verification-of-death-vod-april-2020.pdf
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 24
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
As the symptoms of covid are very similar to the
symptoms of the common cold or the flu, the
reported number of covid deaths is obviously inflated
since a telephone conversation in the last few weeks
is sufficient basis to class a fatality a “covid death”.
The NHS adding vague symptoms like “loss of taste”
to the list only serves to further increase the number
of covid “diagnoses”.
Number of deaths inflated
8. The deaths
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-18/loss-of-smell-or-taste-added-to-nhs-covid-19-symptoms-list/
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 25
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
A lot of data are unreported.
For example, how many are dying of Covid acquired in
hospitals? Data presumably exist on this, but are not
released.
Or why is the average age of those who died not
reported? If we calculate this from the ONS data for May,
the average age works out at around 87 as more than
half of those who died were over 90. In April it was 85, in
March 84. Meanwhile life expectancy in the UK is 81.
Data obfuscated
8. The deaths
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmay2020
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinapril2020
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 26
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
It is valuable to track every piece of information.
It is legitimate to count those who died *with* covid present
(ideally broken down into those with symptoms and those
with no covid symptoms).
It is legitimate to list deaths where there was no opportunity
for testing as likely covid if indeed it was likely covid.
But these categories should be counted separately from
deaths where the presence of the virus was confirmed AND it
likely was the cause of death.
Data obfuscated
8. The deathsAdding up everything to call it
the covid death count is simply inflating the numbers
for no legitimate reason
Not tested; symptoms that may
be covid but not obviously so
Not tested; obvious covid symptoms
Virus confirmed; covid symptoms
present but primary cause of death not
covid
Virus confirmed; cause of death likely
covid
Virus confirmed; covid symptoms not
present
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 27
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
In summary, everyone who dies “with” covid is listed as a covid death, including those who had no covid symptoms and very obviously died of something else. The inaccuracy of covid tests and the large number of false positives further exacerbates this.
At the same time, GPs have been instructed to list anyone with ‘covidlike symptoms’ as a covid death, even if they didn’t test positive.
Tracking all of these makes sense. Adding them all up and calling them “covid deaths” is wildly inaccurate and serves to significantly inflate the reported number of covid fatalities.
8. The deaths
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 28
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
Sceptikat says:
This makes no sense.
8. The deaths
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 29
Join us for Part 9 – Why so callous about lives lost if they didn’t die of/with covid?
SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat
6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 30
Thank you for watching
You can reach me (Kat, Sceptikat) at [email protected]
(Andrew and Kat see it)
or privately at