Does This Make Sense To You?...SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat Slide 1 20 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] Scenario Fitting by SCEPTIKAT

SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat

20 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 1

Scenario Fitting

by SCEPTIKAT

Does This Make Sense To You?

Narrated by Andrew Mather

Part 10 – Forgot to factor in the

cost of the lockdown…?



What areas should we look at?


Action if acting in the interest

of the population

UK government action

MODEL LOCKDOWN

CONSEQUENCES

Estimate and model the loss of

life and quality of life costs of

lockdown vs no lockdown

scenarios; share the estimates

and rationale for policy

choices with the public

IGNORE LOCKDOWN

CONSEQUENCES

Such analysis was either not

done, or the results of it were

not shared with the public

10. The cost of the lockdown




Deliberately shutting down the economy is a measure

so extreme that there is no precedent for it. Never

done before, for any reason.

The UK managed to achieve the highest coronavirus

death rate in the world, coupled with the worst

damage to the economy. That’s quite a feat.

So what analysis went into producing this outcome?

Unprecedented measures


https://www.capitaleconomics.com/the-economic-effects-of-the-coronavirus/

https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-has-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-in-the-world-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

https://www.capitaleconomics.com/the-economic-effects-of-the-coronavirus/

https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-has-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-in-the-world-2020-5?r=US&IR=T




It is hard to see what analysis could have possibly

justified such awful policy choices.

It appears though that such an analysis was not even

performed.

The costs were not weighed up. The cost/benefit was

not considered at any point.

HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE??

10. The cost of the lockdownUnprecedented measures

https://randlereport.com/lessons-for-the-coronavirus-crisis-from-six-other-disasters/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/10/uk-economy-likely-to-suffer-worst-covid-19-damage-says-oecd

https://randlereport.com/lessons-for-the-coronavirus-crisis-from-six-other-disasters/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/10/uk-economy-likely-to-suffer-worst-covid-19-damage-says-oecd




The UK economy has grown on

average 2-2.5% a year since WWII,

and 1.5-2% a year in the last ten

years. Last year it grew by 1.4%.

Contrast this with the -20.4% decline

in the GDP in April alone. 10-15

years of growth wiped out in one

month. And this is just the

beginning.

Unprecedented measures


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-economy-shrink-gdp-rate-fall-decline-ons-lockdown-may-a9617261.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/12/britains-gdp-falls-204-in-april-as-economy-is-paralysed-by-lockdown#:~:text=UK%20GDP%20falls%20by%20record%2020.4%25%20in%20April%20as%20lockdown%20paralyses%20economy,-This%20article%20is&text=Britain's%20economy%20shrank%20by%20a,in%20more%20than%20three%20centuries.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-economy-shrink-gdp-rate-fall-decline-ons-lockdown-may-a9617261.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/12/britains-gdp-falls-204-in-april-as-economy-is-paralysed-by-lockdown#:~:text=UK%20GDP%20falls%20by%20record%2020.4%25%20in%20April%20as%20lockdown%20paralyses%20economy,-This%20article%20is&text=Britain's%20economy%20shrank%20by%20a,in%20more%20than%20three%20centuries.




This isn’t about “money”.

The health of the economy translates

directly into employment, quality of public

services (healthcare education,

infrastructure), mitigating poverty. It also

translates into quality of life.

And now we’re facing an economic decline

not seen since the Middles Ages.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/uk-gdp-collapse-charts-unprecedented-history-a9562326.html





It’s not “the rich” who pay the price. They are

unaffected or even benefit.

An impoverished economy means mass poverty and

mass unemployment. Stress and despair on a mass

scale. Lives of hopelessness, devoid of meaning.

Poor healthcare, increasing mortality from all

causes, education failing our children who face

meagre prospects of creating a stable life and

building a family when they grow up.







The economic devastation caused by the lockdown has

consequences that were no harder to forecast than it was

to model coronavirus deaths.

The government made a decision that is causing an

unprecedented destruction of people’s lives, a decision

without any historic precedent, and they didn’t bother to

estimate the costs and the likely consequences, and to

weigh them up against any expected benefits.

“The real task of government is managing tradeoffs”.


https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/unintended-consequences-of-the-lockdown.php

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/unintended-consequences-of-the-lockdown.php




Is it difficult to model the economic impact of policy

measures? No. There’s an army of economists and

financial analysts doing it as a day job.

Is it difficult to model the social consequences? No.

Plenty of thinktanks and social scientists.

Did they not have the resources to afford a few

models and analysts? Well, if they can afford £100bn

for furlough, they surely could have paid for a few

consultants. So, WHY were the likely consequences of

the lockdown not considered? WHY???


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-furlough-cost-how-much-banks-bailout-trident-hs2-a9514231.html

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-furlough-cost-how-much-banks-bailout-trident-hs2-a9514231.html




The financial and economic consequences of the

lockdown aren’t just an impoverishment of the

population and of public services. The lockdown

has targeted small businesses specifically while

benefiting multinational corporations.

It is a de facto reallocation of wealth from small

business owners and the middle class to large

corporations and the wealthy.

Economic cost


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/07/03/small-businesses-pushed-brink-lockdown-swing-total-optimism/

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52289657

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/07/03/small-businesses-pushed-brink-lockdown-swing-total-optimism/





Some businesses have closed already, others

(such as restaurants) are operating with a new

set of rules that may make it impossible for

them to remain solvent.

And as the demand for welfare spending

increases sharply while the economic

destruction means vastly lower tax revenues,

inevitably large numbers will slip into desperate

poverty, even starvation.


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/top-chef-says-restaurants-cannot-survive-social-distancing-rules-1.4245431

https://www.mylondon.news/news/business/over-76000-small-london-businesses-18481123

Economic cost

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/top-chef-says-restaurants-cannot-survive-social-distancing-rules-1.4245431

https://www.mylondon.news/news/business/over-76000-small-london-businesses-18481123




Once the furlough scheme ends, many will lose

their jobs as companies will not be in a solid

financial position or will not have a market to

sell to.



https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1273619/furlough-coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-unemployment-lockdown

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1309471/furlough-warning-UK-job-losses-July-2020-job-retention-scheme

Economic cost


https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1273619/furlough-coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-unemployment-lockdown

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1309471/furlough-warning-UK-job-losses-July-2020-job-retention-scheme




Much of the economic and financial impact of

the lockdowns will materialise with a time lag:

business defaults impact their suppliers,

lenders, customers domino style. Property

values collapse under the weight of unpaid

rent and reduced demand.

As supply chains break down and businesses

fail, scarcity of goods – even essential goods

such as food – is a possibility.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/coronavirus-hits-uk-commercial-real-estate-as-retailers-cant-pay-rent.html

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2020/03/25/covid-19-the-underlying-issues-affecting-the-uks-food-supply-chains/

Economic cost

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/coronavirus-hits-uk-commercial-real-estate-as-retailers-cant-pay-rent.html

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2020/03/25/covid-19-the-underlying-issues-affecting-the-uks-food-supply-chains/




And of course the extraordinary money

printing of the Bank of England and the likely

price increases for essential goods as the

shutdown of the economy causes supply

shocks can quite conceivably lead to

hyperinflation and financial collapse – ie utter

chaos.

Weimar Republic 2.0.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/18/bank-of-england-continues-money-printing-path-financial-crash-2009-qe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic#Economic_problems

The Weimar Republic had some of the most serious economic

problems ever experienced by any Western democracy in history.

Rampant hyperinflation, massive unemployment, and a large drop in

living standards were primary factors…At the beginning of 1920, 50

Marks was equivalent to one US Dollar. By the end of 1923, one US Dollar was equal to 4,200,000,000,000 Marks.

Economic cost

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/18/bank-of-england-continues-money-printing-path-financial-crash-2009-qe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic#Economic_problems




The social consequences of the lockdown were not

difficult to predict either. Economic destruction

and mass unemployment lead to well understood

social outcomes.

And with the loss of jobs and the devastation of

small businesses, the middle class is decimated

and pushed towards poverty, with a banana

republic style gap developing between rich and

poor.


https://www.marketplace.org/2020/06/17/britain-faces-mass-unemployment-covid19-lockdowns-ease/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/15/uk-see-three-waves-unemployment-result-covid-19-experts-warn/

Social costs

https://www.marketplace.org/2020/06/17/britain-faces-mass-unemployment-covid19-lockdowns-ease/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/15/uk-see-three-waves-unemployment-result-covid-19-experts-warn/




The stress of social isolation, fear, and the

poverty and unemployment induced

hopelessness and desperation cause a spike in

domestic violence, child abuse, addictions,

self harm, and suicides.

The UK's largest domestic abuse charity

reports a 66% rise in calls to its helpline and a

700% increase in visitors to its website.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52876226

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/this-is-the-psychological-side-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-that-were-ignoring/

Social costs

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52876226

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/this-is-the-psychological-side-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-that-were-ignoring/




Education is another casualty with

long term consequences.


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lockdown-widening-the-education-gap-between-privileged-and-deprived-pupils-experts-say-11995962

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-53049127

Social costs

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lockdown-widening-the-education-gap-between-privileged-and-deprived-pupils-experts-say-11995962

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-53049127




All of these outcomes could easily be

foreseen and their likely magnitude

forecast. QALY (=quality adjusted life

years) type metrics could be used to

aggregate and compare.

“If they were truly working for the

good of mankind, all of these very

well known factors would have been

included.“


http://theboresite.com/forums/topic/13704-social-isolation-increases-risk-of-death-from-all-causes-by-50/

Social costs





The average age of those dying of covid is in the

80s, and the vast majority were already suffering

from serious illnesses. Any “life years lost” type

calculation would have advised against these

unprecedented irrational lockdowns.

Even more so if we factor in the colossal long term

decline in quality of life as a consequence of the

lockdowns.

Cost in loss of lives


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmay2020#characteristics-of-those-dying-from-covid-19

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmay2020#characteristics-of-those-dying-from-covid-19




But if we restrict ourselves purely to “number of lives

lost”, even that very narrow assessment suggests

that the lives lost due to the lockdown outstrip the

number of lives lost due to covid.

10. The cost of the lockdownCost in loss of lives

Letter signed by hundreds of US doctors stating that the loss of life of the lockdown exceeds the covid loss of life:

“The shutdown was a mass casualty incident.”https://www.scribd.com/document/462319362/A-Doctor-a-Day-

Letter-Signed#download&from_embed

https://www.scribd.com/document/462319362/A-Doctor-a-Day-Letter-Signed#download&from_embed




Even though the government did not care to

look into this, experts have warned already

back in March.

The “lockdown deaths” have already been

mounting (see Part 9), but much of it will

occur in future – deaths due to worse health

outcomes caused by deprivation and poverty,

deaths of despair, deaths caused by the

impoverished healthcare infrastructure.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/economic-shutdown-could-kill-coronavirus-experts-warn/





There is a strong correlation between life

expectancy and the economy.

And the NHS policy of cancelling and delaying

diagnostics and treatments will make the UK

lockdown death count even worse.







Add to this the deaths caused by the

lockdown mandated isolation and

the resulting stress.



https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/15/domestic-abuse-killings-more-than-double-amid-covid-19-lockdown

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8207783/150-000-Brits-die-coronavirus-pandemic-domestic-violence-suicides.html


https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/15/domestic-abuse-killings-more-than-double-amid-covid-19-lockdown

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8207783/150-000-Brits-die-coronavirus-pandemic-domestic-violence-suicides.html




The already dramatic

deterioration of mental health

across the population is another

ticking time bomb that is sure to

translate into further mortality

from addictions, suicide, and

violence.


https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14874

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14874




In addition to the deaths and destruction

being caused in the UK by the lockdown, the

lockdowns in Western countries also have a

serious knock on effect on the Third World.

Our governments don’t bat an eyelid at their

policies pushing tens, or even hundreds, of

millions in the Third World into starvation.

“The world has never faced a hunger

emergency like this, experts say.”


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/world/africa/coronavirus-hunger-crisis.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/world/africa/coronavirus-hunger-crisis.html




The government never communicated about

assessing the costs and consequences of the

lockdown.

Where was the Neil Ferguson equivalent with the

model on the expected costs, loss of life and

quality of life consequences of the lockdown?

It appears some in government were concerned.

But Matt Hancock put that concern swiftly to bed,

saying it was “not part of our internal analysis.”

10. The cost of the lockdownDemocratic accountability

https://www.ft.com/content/8027d913-2e2f-4d4c-93db-89bd726105f0

https://www.ft.com/content/8027d913-2e2f-4d4c-93db-89bd726105f0




There were several alternatives to the

unprecedented, devasting lockdown.

The vulnerable could have been protected

at a fraction of the cost, leaving the

livelihoods of the majority intact.

Why were alternative solutions not

modeled?


https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/03/26/beating-covid-19-the-problem-with-national-lockdowns/

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/03/26/beating-covid-19-the-problem-with-national-lockdowns/




Democratic accountability dictates the government should have

explained the analysis supporting the lockdown policy, and the

arguments and reasoning for the lockdown should have been

exposed so public scrutiny.

No such communication took place. Either because there was

nothing to talk about as no proper assessment was ever done, or if

there was, then the conclusions from the assessment must have

suggested that the lockdowns were the wrong policy and so the

results were not shared with the public.


https://thecritic.co.uk/has-the-government-over-reacted-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/

https://thecritic.co.uk/has-the-government-over-reacted-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/




In summary, such an unprecedented and monumentally destructive decision leading to economic devastation, terrible social consequences, significant loss of life as well as loss of quality life for many should have been based on a very thorough analysis of the alternatives and an assessment of the likely outcomes.

Not to have done so is irresponsible beyond comprehension.

Yet it appears that either no such assessment was done, or the results of the assessment did not justify the lockdown.





Sceptikat says:

This makes no sense.




Join us for Part 11 – Doubling down on every mistake



Thank you for watching

You can reach me (Kat, Sceptikat) at [email protected]

(Andrew and Kat see it)

or privately at

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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Does This Make Sense To You?...SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat Slide 1 20 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] Scenario Fitting by SCEPTIKAT