Domestic Climate Change Actions after Durban Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Durban Platform for Enhanced Actions 更なる行動のためのダーバンプラットフォーム

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

P.R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management

Ahmedabad, India

Presented in the International Forum for Sustainable Asia and the Pacific: ISAP 2012 July 24-25, Yokohama, Japan

India: Domestic Climate Change Actions after Durban

インド: ダーバン後の国内気候変動行動

プリヤダァシ・シュクラ

インド経営大学院大学


Durban Platform for Enhanced Actions 更なる行動のためのダーバンプラットフォーム

(Building on the Bali Action Plan, Copenhagen & Cancun Agreements)

Domestic Actions (Guided by National Climate Change Action Plan)

•Enhanced Energy Efficiency measures (e.g. PAT with EE Certificates, CAFE)

•Renewable Energy Push (e.g. 20 GW Solar PV Target by 2022, RE Certificates)

•Mission on Sustainable Habitat (e.g. Building Codes, Low Carbon Cities Planning)

•Coal tax ($1 per ton) and recycling of tax funds for clean energy

International Instruments

•UNFCCC Instruments – CDM and NAMAs

– UNFCCC Funds (e.g. Green Climate Fund)

•Bilateral Actions – Tech Transfer (e.g. CCS)

– JVs (e.g. Transport: High Speed Rail, Freight Corridors)

• 20 to 25% Emissions Intensity Reduction from 2005 to 2020 (1.5 - 1.9% decoupling)

• Per Capita Emissions Below OECD Average (for ever)

• MRV/ICA (International Consultation & Analysis) of Domestic Actions (Cancun)


GDP, Energy, Emissions: Indian Scenarios

GDP、エネルギー、排出量：インドのシナリオ

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

mto

e

High Growth Medium growth Low Growth

Primary Energy

7880

658

2193

6175

3542

1524

10883

4718

1848

15131

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

2005 2020 2035 2050

Low Growth Medium Growth High Growth

GDP/capita (US $2005)

2.80

7.27

3.39

9.69

23.59

4.03

12.68

32.80

17.08

0

10

20

30

40

2005 2020 2035 2050

Low Growth Medium Growth High Growth

GDP (GDP in 2005 = 1)

Carbon Emissions

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

mt-

CO

2

High

Medium

Low

Growth Scenarios

Typlical LCS Trajectory


Renewable Energy Certificate Mechanism: Institutional Framework at National Level 再生可能エネルギー：国レベルの制度枠組み


Four New Initiatives under NMEEE

As per National Action Plan on Climate Change (Para 4.2):

•A market based mechanism to enhance cost effectiveness of improvements in energy

efficiency in energy-intensive large industries and facilities, through certification of

energy savings that could be traded. (Perform Achieve and Trade)

•Accelerating the shift to energy efficient appliances in designated sectors through

innovative measures to make the products more affordable. (Market Transformation

for Energy Efficiency)

•Creation of mechanisms that would help finance demand side management programs

in all sectors by capturing future energy savings. (Energy Efficiency Financing

Platform)

•Developing fiscal instruments to promote energy efficiency (Framework for Energy

Efficient Economic Development)

NATIONAL MISSION ON

ENHANCED ENERGY EFFICIENCY (NMEEE) エネルギー効率の向上に関する国家ミッション(NMEEE)


Specific Energy Consumption (SEC) reduction

targets for the 685 energy-intensive units which are

designated consumers under the Energy

Conservation Act

• Targets would be % reduction of current SEC

• Percentage reduction requirement based on:

- Sectoral targets to achieve the national goal

- Current SEC as a ratio of the best in the sector/

groups within a sector

- Unit specific diversities (Next Slide)

• Target setting for the power generation and fertilizer

sectors through the existing tariff-setting processes

• SEC measurement and verification by BEE through

designated verifiers

Sector No. of Identified

DCs*

Aluminum 11

Cement 92

Chlor-Alkali 21

Fertilizer 22

Pulp & Paper 70

Power 154

Iron & Steel 110

Textiles 197

Railways 8

Methodology:

(The market based mechanism through cost effectiveness approach for

improving energy efficiency in energy intensive sectors)

Perform, Achieve & Trade (PAT) Mechanism

*DCs: Designated Consumers

省エネ達成認証(PAT)メカニズム


Infrastructure Alternatives: Coal by Wire

44%

21%

10%

4%

5%

5% 3%

8%

Coal Iron Ore, Steel & Pig Iron

Cement Foodgrains

Fertilizers Petroleum Oil Lubricants

Container Service Others

Composition of Railway Freight Traffic (%): 2010

代替社会基盤（インフラ）:石炭産地での発電と送電

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India 8

Transport Infrastructure: Avoiding Lock-ins 交通基盤：ロック・イン（固定化）の回避

Freight movement by transport infrastructure type (Bn Tkm)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

3W

LCV

HCV

Train

Ship

Sectoral shares in freight transport infrastructure (%)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

3W

LCV

HCV

Train

Ship

BAU

Industrial Corridors

Coal by Wire

Haryana Dadri

J. N Port

Rajasthan

Maharashtra

Gujarat

Madhya

Pradesh

Haryana

Uttar Pradesh

Major Towns

Proposed Freight Corridor

Assumed Corridors

Kandla

Kochi

Mangalore

Vizag

Marmagoa

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

3W

LCV

HCV

Train

Ship


City Planning: Co-benefits

Ahmedabad City: Pop. In 2010 - 5.5. Million

Co-benefits: Transport Transitions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCS 2050 BaU 2050 LCS

2W

Train

Bus

Large Passenger Vehicle

Car & 3 W

Per Capita CO2 Emissions (Ton)

2.16

5.63

3.13

8.15

2.16

2005 2035 BAU 2035 LCS 2050 BaU 2050 LCS

163.99

223.199

255.704

148.974 169.25

0

100

200

300

2005 2035 2050

Base WECC

Co-benefits: Water per capita (ML/million)

都市計画:コベネフィット（共便益）


Integrated Energy-Water Market: Co-benefits

Co-benefits of South-Asia

Integrated Energy-Water Market

Benefit (Saving) Cumulative

from 2010 to 2030

$ Billion % GDP

Energy 60 Exa Joule 321 0.87

CO2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28 0.08

SO2 50 Million Ton 10 0.03

Total 359 0.9B8

Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits

• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)

• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)

• Flood control (MDG1&7)

• Lower energy prices enhances competitiveness

of regional industries (MDG1)

INDIA: Water Demand (BCM)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2000 2025 2025 CC 2025 Sus 2050 2050 CC 2050 Sus

Domestic Industry (incl power) Agriculture

Red: 27.0%

591 1006 953 732 937 1237 1184

Red:24.0%

4.8%

27.3%

0

10000

20000

BAU BAU LCS: Sus BAU

2005 2020 2035 2050

Fossil

Nuclear

Large Hydro

Other Renewables

LCS: Sus BAU LCS: Sus

統合的エネルギー・水市場：コベネフィット


2OC Stabilization: Mitigation Alternatives

Conventional Approach: transition with

conventional path and carbon price • High Carbon Price

• Climate Focused Technology Push

• Top-down/Supply-side actions

Sustainability Approach: aligning climate

and sustainable development actions • Low Carbon Price

• Bottom-up/Demand-side actions

• Behavioural change

• Diverse Technology portfolio

Technology Co-operation Areas • Energy Efficiency

• Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro

• Nuclear/Low Carbon Infrastructure

Technology Co-operation Areas • Transport Infrastructure Technologies

• 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy

• Process Technologies

• Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes 0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mil

lio

n T

on

CO

2

Water-Energy

Reduced Consumption

Recycling

Material Substitutions

Device Efficiency

Renewable Energy

Infrastructure

Fuel Switch

Residual Emissions

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mil

lio

n T

on

CO

2

Water-Energy & others

Infrastructure

Device Efficiency

Nuclear

Renewable Energy

Fossil Fuel Switch

Residual Emissions

2℃への安定化：緩和代替手段


Co-benefits and Social Value of Carbon

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mil

lio

n t

SO

2

Base Case

Sustainability

Scenario

Conventional

Scenario

Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions

Co benefits: Energy Security

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewable

Pri

ma

ry E

nerg

y D

em

an

d (

Mto

e)

Base 2825

CT 2945

SS 2207

Total PED (Mtoe)

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0

40

80

120

160

200

BAU

Conventional Scenario

Sustainability Scenario

Social Value of Carbon

(US

$ p

er

ton

of

CO

2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

100 200 400 800 1600

Emissions and Income

SO2 Emissions in BAU

CO2 Emissions in BAU

SS Emissions

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns (M

illio

n T

on

)

SO

2 E

mis

sio

ns (

Millio

n T

on

)

GDP Per Capita 2000 = 100

コベネフィットと炭素の社会的価値


Conclusions 結論 India: Post-Durban Visions and Actions

Long-term: Aligning CC & SD

1.Commitment to 2 deg. C Stabilization

• Early Actions for Global Peaking of Emissions

2.Green (and Inclusive) Growth

• Decoupling Economy from Energy Use and Carbon Emissions

3.Equitable Right to Sustainable Development

• Common but Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR)

• Long-term Cooperative Actions (Global/Multilateral)

• Technological (e.g. CCS, Rail Transport) and Financial Transfers

4.Avoid Long-term Lock-ins

• Investment in Infrastructures, human and social capital

• Enhance Adaptive Capacity

インドにおけるダーバン後のビジョンと行動


Conclusions India: Post-Durban Visions and Actions

Short-term: Co-benefits and Capacity Building

1.National Missions to Deliver Co-benefits

• Clean Energy (e.g. Solar Mission)

• Energy Efficiency (e.g. Appliance Standards, Building code)

• Reduce, Reuse, Recycle (e.g. City Waste)

2.Cooperate with Multilateral Initiatives (e.g.)

• UNFCCC Flexibility Mechanisms (CDM)

• Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate

3.Preparedness for Adaptation (with Co-benefits)

• Assess Vulnerability in critical areas (e.g. Himalayan Ecology)

• Align CC Adaptation & other Risks (e.g. water stress, floods)

Thank you

Documents

Domestic Climate Change Actions after Durban Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Durban Platform for Enhanced Actions 更なる行動のためのダーバンプラットフォーム