To quote this work:

Dorin Bruno, Garoyan Damien, Mahadevan Akshay, Mondal Sreenita, Morel Chloé, SehgalAnmol, 2019. Feeding over 500 million livestock units in India. A tentative retro-prospective model (1966-2050). Provisional results, International seminar "Milk and Dairyin India’s Development Path. Lessons, challenges and perspectives", India InternationalCentre, New Delhi, 17-18 December, 26 p.

Feeding over 500 million livestock units in IndiaA tentative retro-prospective model (1966-2050)

Bruno DORIN (CIRAD-Montpellier, CIRED-Paris, CSH-Delhi)Damien GAROYAN (CSH-Delhi, 2015-16)Akshay MAHADEVAN (CSH-Delhi, 2019)

Sreenita MONDAL (CSH-Delhi, 2018)Chloé MOREL (CSH-Delhi, 2019)

Anmol SEHGAL (CSH-Delhi, 2019)

International seminar "Milk and Dairy in India’s Development Path”New Delhi, 17-18 December 2019

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Provisional results

All in all: Livestock feed and human consummation of animal productshave been largely overlooked by most Indian stakeholders focused on foodgrains(statisticians, economists, agricultural scientists, nutritionists, environmentalists, policy makers…)and this must change urgently and drastically: we tried to work in this direction… 2

Key messages❶ Globally, growing consumptions and productions

of animal products (meat, milk…) and animal feed (cereals, oilcakes…)have huge environmental impacts(deforestation, CH4 and N20 emissions, energy and water consumptions…) and challenge both food security (food/feed competition for poor/rich consumer)

and food sovereignty of land-squeezed countries (e.g. China, or even EU)❷ India is a confusing case in this storyline,

but its unique model is very poorly documented, starting with national statistics on production and consumption of feeds, leading to diverging or inconsistent results from national/international models

❸ Using the current state of the art (NIANP 2003, Gorti et al 2012…)

we have extended and improved past assessments and bio-modellingto better project future scenarios and their impactsfor an Indian population that is expected to peak at 1.723 billion people in 2071 (IIASA 2018)

3

❶ The global challenge Global past picture: growing food crops for feeding livestock (1961-2007)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tkcal / jour

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tkcal / jour

Food for HUMANS(+165%)

Feed forANIMALS(+185%)

Seeds, biofuels, wastes…

Production of PLANT food: + 186 %

Production of ANIMAL foodstuffs: + 166 %Ruminants

(+103%)

Monogastrics(+384%)

Cereals, oilcakes, edible roots…

Source : Dorin (2011)

Livestock production systems

Meat, milk, eggs…

Tkcal / day

Tkcal / day

FEED foranimals

animalFOOD/ ≈ 3

On world average, we used 3 kcal or protein of PLANT foodto produce 1 kcal or protein of ANIMAL food

4

05

101520253035404550556065

REF-2007 VEG-2050 REF-2050 AG1-2050 AGO-2050 WST-2050

waste & seedanimal feedhuman food

Plant food (Tkcal.day-1)

Global picture in 2050: according to 5 possible diet scenarios!

Source: ● Dorin Bruno, Le Cotty Tristan, 2012. "Food Crops and Livestock. From Worldwide Past Evidences (1961-2007) to Open Scenarios (2050)",

12th Biennial Conference of the International Society for Ecological Economics, Rio de Janeiro, 16-19 June, 34 p.● Le Cotty Tristan, Dorin Bruno, 2012. "A global foresight on food crop needs for livestock", Animal, 6:9, Sept., pp. 1528-36. ● Paillard Sandrine, Tréyer Sébastien, Dorin Bruno (Dir.), 2011 (2014: Springer). Agrimonde: scenarios and challenges for feeding the world in 2050,

Quae, Versailles, 295 p.

Economical & social issues• economic growth ?• income inequalities ?• animal draft vs. tractors ?• manure vs. chemical fertilizer ?• wool, leather… ?• cultural preferences,

religious taboos ?• …/…Heath issues(under- & over-consumption)• proteins, lipids, iron, vitamin A… ?• overweight, obesity ?• cardiovascular diseases ?• …/…Environmental issues• deforestation (C, biodiversity) ?• GHG (N2O, CH4, CO2) ?• fertilizers, freshwater, pesticides…• …/…

Situationin 2007

All VEGin 2050

Same dietsas in 2007

ScenarioAgrimonde 1

ScenarioAgrimonde GO

(trend)

FullWesternin 2050

Consumption in Plant Food Product (PFP)

05

101520253035404550556065

REF-2007 VEG-2050 REF-2050 AG1-2050 AGO-2050 WST-2050

FSUMENASSALAMChinaASIA-ChinaOECD

Plant food (Tkcal.day-1)

Asia and Africa: the big players

Consumption in Plant Food Product (PFP)

Source: Dorin Bruno, Le Cotty Tristan, 2012. "Food Crops and Livestock. From Worldwide Past Evidences (1961-2007) to Open Scenarios (2050)",

12th Biennial Conference of the International Society for Ecological Economics, Rio de Janeiro, 16-19 June, 34 p. 5

6

Contrasting trends…● Vegetarianism as a value for upper classes (“sanskritization”)● Land-shortage and high food-feed competition

leading to a large use of by-products for animal feed (crops residues, food waste, forest…)

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Incr. livestock

Silk, honey…

Dung

Eggs

Meat (group)

Milk (group)

Wool & hair

GVA

Fin. services

Market charges

Maintenance

Feed

INR (billion)

Output and Value Added from India livestock sector in constant 2011-12 prices (1950/51 – 2011-12)

Source: B. Dorin 2019, based onhttp://mospi.nic.in (05/11/2019)

● But growing production and consumption of milk, meat …and feed

❷ The big Indian puzzle

7

Livestock feed: a big puzzle for data and models too!

(1) All global databases and models face difficulties and inconsistent results with IndiaModels- IMAGE (PBL) – 8 regions (livestock)- IMPACT (IFPRI) – 115 regions (?)- GLOBIOM (IIASA) – 28 regions- GLEAM (FAO) – 10 regions

Others (global databases, studies…)- FAOSTAT- Seré et Steinfeld, 1996- Bouwman et al, 2004

(2) In India, many studies/papers use the same data/parameters (sometimes very old…) without checking their relevance or consistency

References Region Year Concen-trates

Dry Fodders

Green Fodders Total

Gorti et al (2012) India 2000 26.9 274.5 149.5 450.9NIANP (2003) India 2000 31.6 340.9 125.6 498.1Dikshit et Birthal (2010) India 2003 42.6 419.3 189.2 651.0GLOBIOM (Herrero et al 2013) South Asia 2000 45.0 433.0 355.0 833.0FAOSTAT (2019) India 2000 36.9 - - -USDA (2019) India 2000 19.5 - - -Notes: (1) data in million tonnes (Mt) of dry matter (DM); (2) when required, fresh matters (FM) have been converted into DM using 0.9 for concentrates and dry fodders, 0.25 for green fodders (NIANP, 2003); (3) By-products of sugarcane are classified in DF (e.g. NIANP, 2012) or GF (e.g. Gorti et al, 2012) ; (4) GLOBIOM estimates visually deduced from Herrero et al 2013

(3) …leading to large differences in results

Comparison of livestock feed availability estimates (circa 2000)

8

NIANP 2003 & Gorti et al 2012 A feed balance database/model from States to All-India, from 1970 to 2025, in different units: tons, Dry Matter (DM), Total Digestible Nutrients (TDN), Crude Protein (CP)for 3 feed groups: Concentrates (C), Dry Fodder (DF), Green Fodder (GF) and different animal species by age-classes

Our reference base for macro assessment and bio-modelling

Concluding to a “feed deficit” between livestock feed availability and requirement

Simulations using the NIANP methodology show a feed deficit in dry matter (DM) which tends to decrease over time, but still accounted for 40% of the estimated needs in 2012.

Such a “feed deficit” is regularly mentioned in the literature on Indian livestock and feed, but few explanations are provided.

An apparent but unreal deficit shows some modelling gaps that need to be overcome:- fixed and underestimated harvest/feed ratios over time?- overestimation of animal body weights?- overestimation of milk production ?- ignorance of international trade?- failure to properly take into account over time green fodders collected from borders of fields/roads, fallow lands and forests?- etc.

Our reproduction of the “feed deficit” using NIANP (2003) methodology

9

Our basic objectives- Balancing feed requirements and availabilities- in DM, Energy, Proteins…- State-wise- from the 1960s to 2016- for testing 2050 scenarios (on land use, trade, etc.)

Our basic methodological approach

PRODi,t,b,m + IMPOi,t,b,m – EXPOi,n,b,m + STOCi,t,b,m=

FOODi,t,b,m + FEEDi,t,b,m + SEEDi,t,b,m + OTHEi,t,b,m + WASTi,t,b,m

Building resource-and-use balances … by Indian states (i)… for every year (t) since the 1960s… for 4 biomass compartments (b) : food plant, non-food plant,

grazing animals, non-grazing animals… in different units/metrics (m): GF, DF, calories, proteins, carbohydrates, fats

Production Import Export Δ Stock

Food Feed Seed Other Waste

PFP

AFP

● Several full-month time equivalent since 2016 to build and consolidate the database(entry of missing e-values, verification ∑ States = All-India, harmonization of categories, etc.)

● Grouping into 5 families: BOVI, CAME, EQUI, GALI, SUID● Grouping into 16 species: Buffalo, Camel, Cattle, Donkey, Duck, Fowl, Goat,

Horse, Mithun, Mule, Pig, Pony, Quail, Sheep, Turkey, Yak● Grouping into 3 sexes: Female, Male, Anonym● Grouping into 3 races: Domestic, Improved, Anonym● Grouping into 9 activities: Dry, Egg, Growth, Milk, Meat, Not calved, Other,

Work (Breeding, Breeding+Draught, Cart, Castrated, Draught, Non_Castrated, Sport…), Anomym● Grouping into 18 age classes (varying according to species)● Calculation or verification of totals and sub-totals

for 10 years x 31 States/UTs (average 1966-2012) x 583 categories (average/state) ≈ 180,700 values● Interpolation to get values for the years between each census ≈ 831,200 values in total 10

❸ Requirement of animal feed

General principles of assessment(1) Livestock censuses heads

by Species, Sex, Race, Age, ActivityX

(3) Nutritional requirementin DM, TDN, CP…per headand level of activity(growth, breeding, milk, eggs…)

(2) Livestock production(milk, eggs, meat…)

Livestock censuses (1966-2012)ICAR, 2013. Nutrient Requirements of Cattle and Buffalo, etc.,

New Delhi (several booklets)

=Tonnesof feedrequirement(DM, TDN, CP…)

11

Heads of BOVIDE (and main species) from 10th to 19th census (1966-2012)

176.1 178.3 180.1 192.4 195.9 202.3 198.9 185.2 199.1 190.9

52.9 57.4 62.069.6 76.7

84.2 89.9 97.9105.3 108.7

63.3 67.575.6

95.299.3

114.7 122.7 124.4

140.5 135.2

42.040.0

40.9

41.345.0

50.757.5 61.5

71.665.1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

1966 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2003 2007 2012

BOVI - Yak - All - All - All - All

BOVI - Mithun - All - All - All - All

BOVI - Sheep - All - All - All - All

BOVI - Goat - All - All - All - All

BOVI - Buffalo

BOVI - Cattle - All - All - All - All

MillionAll-India results (sum of States/UTs)

12

21.0 22.0 23.2 26.6 29.7 30.9 33.3 35.8 41.4 44.0

25.8 26.3 26.627.2 25.7 26.4 24.9 22.3

21.023.612.9 15.1 17.0

17.923.0 25.7 28.4 33.3

35.636.6

10.411.3

11.912.1

12.714.4 14.3

13.913.0

14.5

16.5

24.927.2

27.534.2

37.036.3

16.0

28.2

33.035.0

29.5

35.634.8

0

50

100

150

200

1966 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2003 2007 2012

BOVI - Goat - All - All - Dry

BOVI - Goat - All - All - Milk - All

BOVI - Buffalo - All - All - Dry

BOVI - Buffalo - All - All - Milk - All

BOVI - Cattle - All - All - Dry

BOVI - Cattle - All - All - Milk - All

Million

Heads of Milk-BOVIDE from 10th to 19th census (1966-2012)

All-India results (sum of States/UTs)

13

4,974

6,8487,699

9,87910,749

12,31913,288 13,512

11,13410,294

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

1966 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2003 2007 2012

SUID - Pig - All - All - All - All

1,028 1,109 1,070 1,060 1,004 1,005 912678

517400

1,054994 978 1,021

924 998

882

647

438

319

945780

764 736

632663

652

575

475

488

75

7591 135

175197

218

170

137

196

204

162151

162

154

171

172

166

137

137

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1966 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2003 2007 2012

EQUI - Pony - All - All - All - All

EQUI - Mule - All - All - All - All

EQUI - Horse - All - All - All - All

EQUI - Donkey - All - All - All -All

Heads of SWINEfrom 10th to 19th census(1966-2012)

Thousand

Heads of CAMELID & EQUINE (and main species)from 10th to 19th census(1966-2012)

Thousand

All-India results (sum of States/UTs)

All-India results (sum of States/UTs)

14

Heads of GALLINACEOUS (and main species) from 10th to 19th census (1966-2012)

MillionAll-India results (sum of States/UTs)

15

Livestock productions

Production (tonnes) of MILK (1966-2017)

All-India results (sum of States/UTs)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Mil l ion

MILK - Milk, cow - All - Cattle - All - All - All

MILK - Milk, goat - All - Goat - All - All - All

MILK - Milk, buffalo - All - Buffalo - All - All - All

MILK - Milk - All - All - All - All - All

Using interpolated values from 1973-1984 and 1995-1998 since detailed State-wise productions are unavailable in India!

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Mil l ion

EGGS - Egg, fowl - GALI - Fowl - All - All - All

EGGS - Egg, duck - GALI - Duck - All - All - All

EGGS - Egg - GALI - Other - All - All - All

EGGS - Egg - GALI - All - All - All - All

16

Production (1000 units) of EGGS (1973-2017)

All-India results (sum of States/UTs)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mill ion

MEAT - Meat, sheep - All - Sheep - All - All - All

MEAT - Meat, poultry - All - Poultry - All - All - All

MEAT - Meat, pig - All - Pig - All - All - All

MEAT - Meat, goat - All - Goat - All - All - All

MEAT - Meat, cattle - All - Cattle - All - All - All

MEAT - Meat, buffalo - All - Buffalo - All - All - All

MEAT - Meat - All - All - All - All - All

17

Production (tonnes) of MEAT (1998-2017)

All-India (provisional/incomplete) results (sum of States/UTs)

18

Production (tonnes) of FISH (1997-2015)

All-India results (sum of States/UTs)

19

Crop production (paddy, wheat, etc.)in tonsstate-wise (GOI)

Land usein hastate-wise (GOI)

Harvest rates, Feed ratios…(Gorti et al 2012, FAO…)

Concentrates (CO) Dry fodders (DF)

Green fodders (GF)

Nutritional contents(ICAR 2013…)

General principles of assessment

❹ Availability in animal feed

Tonnes of feed availability (DM, TDN, CP, kcal…)

20

All-India results (sum of States/UTs)

Land use

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Hec

tare

s (m

illion

)

Water (?)

Barren

Urban

Forest

Shrub

Fallow

Pasture

Plantation

Crop

Note: 2015 and 2016 values are a strict copies of 2014 values since Indian land-use statistics are not updated since 2014.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Mil l ion

Fruits

Vegetables

Sugarcane

Oilseeds

Pulses

Cereals

21

Crop productions (excluding spices and condiments)

Production (tonnes) of annual and perennial crops (1969-2016)All-India results (sum of States/UTs)

Provisional results, in particular for fruit and vegetables for which data by crop are only available from 1991 onwards, with a few exceptions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Mil l ion

Sugarcane(molasses)

Oilseeds(cake)

Pulses(bean)

Cereals(grain)

22

Availability of feed (excluding fruits, vegetables, spices, condiments)

CONCENTRATES (tonnes) in DMeq (1969-2016)All-India provisional results (sum of States/UTs)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Sugarcane

Oilseeds

Pulses

Cereals

23

DRY FODDERS (tonnes) in DMeq (1969-2016)

All-India provisional results (sum of States/UTs)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Fodder cropsForestPlantationShrubPastureFallow >1yFallow < 1yOther cropsSugarcane

24

All-India provisional results (sum of States/UTs)

GREEN FODDERS (tonnes) in DMeq (1969-2016)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Fodder cropsForestPlantationShrubPastureFallow > 1yFallow < 1yOther cropsSugarcane

25

All-India provisional results (sum of States/UTs)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Sugarcane

Oilseeds

Pulses

Cereals

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Mil l ion

Sugarcane(molasses)

Oilseeds(cake)

Pulses(bean)

Cereals(grain)

GREEN FODDERS (tonnes) in CPeqDRY FODDERS (tonnes) in CPeq

CONCENTRATES (tonnes) in CPeqFEEDS in Proteineq (1969-2016)

26

Coming back to the world average PLANTFood

ANIMALFOOD/ ≈ 3

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

ASIA-ChOECD

MENA

SSALAM

FSU

China

AFP (Tg.year-1 of proteins)

AFP/PFP Declining

productivitiesof plant feed…

PLANTFood

Production

ANIMALFood

Production /

Cereals,Oilcakes…

Meat,Milk…

Source: Dorin Bruno, Le Cotty Tristan, 2012. "Food Crops and Livestock. From Worldwide Past Evidences (1961-2007) to Open Scenarios (2050)", 12th Biennial Conference of the International Society for Ecological Economics, Rio de Janeiro, 16-19 June, 34 p.