Douglas Westphal Anthony Bucholtz

Piotr FlatauArunas Kuciauskas

Ming LiuBetsy Reid

Jeffrey ReidKim RichardsonAnnette Walker

Aerosol and Radiation Modeling SectionMarine Meteorology DivisionNaval Research Laboratory

Monterey CA 93943

www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol

Overview of Navy’s System for Global Modeling of Sulfate, Smoke & Dust

Conventional Navy view:•Marine aerosol (salt, sulfate) in marine boundary layer•Locally produced•EO propagation, TAWS, slant range visibility

But there are other aerosols and impacts:•Dust, smoke, pollution •Long-range transport•Operational constraints

–mission planning–hazard avoidance–navigation

•Numerical weather prediction–direct effect–indirect effect

•Satellite analyses–SST retrievals

Why?Aerosol Impacts on Navy Activities

Dust Over the Red Sea, 18 July, 1999

Mediterranean, 15 April, 2000Impact of Aerosols on Navy Activities

Southwest Asia, 10 October, 2001

Southwest Asia, 12 October, 2001

Pollution and Smoke over the Atlantic

June 28, 2001SeaWiFS

Impact of Aerosols on Navy Activities:Volcanic Ash in the Mediterranean

October 28, 2002SeaWiFS

“… helicopters encountered … several large layers of suspended dust about 190 nm long. Like flying in a milk bowl … pilots unable to see the surface from as low as 75 feet.” NDU staff report on Iran Hostage Rescue Mission

“After sunrise the visibility reduced to less than 1 nautical mile in blowing dust, prompting all squadrons to immediately begin preserving topside aircraft. … the harbor pilot was told that visibility was down to less than ¼ mile at the harbor and that no traffic would be moved until the visibility improved.” USS Carl Vinson, U.A.E, February 1999

“The ability to have DAMPS generate a dust forecast out to 48 hrs would provide us with an ability to reschedule flight operations or move ships to other locations. In the eleven months I’ve been out here, dust has had the biggest impact on limiting and/or canceling operations that have taken place in this AOR.” CO NAVCENTMETOCCEN, Bahrain, July 2000

At Roosevelt Roads/Vieques, Puerto Rico, drone operations over practice ranges were cancelled by conditions of reduced visibility due to Saharan dust; interfered with gunnery training schedules (couldn’t visually certify range was clear)

Impact of Dust on Navy Activities

Impact of Aerosol on Navy Activities

Aerosol climatology required for selection of High Energy LasersFocused on marine boundary layer (for ship defense)

Impact of Aerosols on NWP:Example of Visible Direct Effect

•SEAWIFS Visible wavelength imagery for March 17, 2002

•Plume of aerosol leaving Asia composed of dust, pollution and other aerosols

•Direct effects are obvious

•Indirect effects are possible as aerosol is entrained into synoptic weather system

KOREA

ACE-Asia Experiment, April 2001• Shipboard deployment• Sea of Japan (subject to dust

storms from China)• Main result: increased downward

infrared flux due to dust in atmosphere

Impact of Aerosols on NWP:Example of Infrared Direct Effect

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Impact of Aerosols on NWP:Example of Indirect Effect

AVHRR Near-IR imagery for May 14, 1994, from MAST

“Ship tracks” are variations in cloud albedo due to aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties

Large-scale changes in cloud albedo likely due to polluted vs. clean air

Large-Scale Albedo Change

Ship Tracks

Impact of Aerosols on NWP:Indirect Effect on Hurricane Felix?

(El Niño) Dust Contamination Smoke Effect

Cummings/FNMOC

Impact of Aerosols on NWP:Aerosol Contamination of SST Retrieval

Why Global?Long-Range Transport

Often assumed that aerosol is locally produced and can be modeled based on local variables, ignoring long-range transport

However,

•Intercontinental aerosol transport occurs frequently•Regional aerosols can be significantly impacted by non-local sources

Other reasons for global modeling:

•Regional aerosol simulations require initial and boundary conditions•Validation data are scarce; validate model wherever data are available

Intercontinental Transport

Background: Composite of Several Retrievals of TOMS Absorbing Aerosol Index

Dust: Red Arrows, Smoke: Blue Arrows Background: Composite of several TOMS retrievals of Aerosol

Index

Intercontinental Transport

Objectives:

•Forecast global and regional distribution of aerosols •Measure and model the optical effects of aerosols•Forecast slant range visibility•Determine the importance of aerosol effects for NWP

Approach:

•Modeling•Global and regional predictive aerosol transport models with emphasis on dynamical forcing and transport, rather than microphysics and chemistry•Data assimilation of satellite data

•Theoretical•Calculate scattering by individual particles•Develop accurate and efficient forward modeling methods for NWP

•Experimental•Verify theoretical calculations using in situ and remotely sensed data•Validate transport models with in situ and satellite data

Aerosol Research at NRL/MRY

RegionalAerosol ModelCOAMPS

NCB Models

ObservationsRemote Sensing

Global and RegionalAerosol Analyses

GlobalAerosol Model

NOGAPS

Theoretical Studies, Field Measurements

NRL/MRY Aerosol Studies FlowchartE

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•Customers: TAWS (slant range) NAVO (SST) Metoc Det (Wx) HEL (visibility)•Validation

Transition tocustomer

• Twice-daily, 5-day forecasts of SO2, sulfate, dust and smoke

• Operational global weather model (NOGAPS) provides forecasts of P, T, q, u, v, w, Kz, cloud parameters, precip., stress, and ground wetness at 6-hour intervals on 1X1 degree grid; 14 levels to 100 mb

• Semi-Lagrangian horizontal transport; finite element horizontal diffusion; finite element vertical transport

• SO2 emission from GEIA inventory; oceanic DMS emission

• Deflation depends on threshold velocity, forecasted stress and ground wetness

• Smoke emission based on satellite detection of fires• Linear gas-phase chemistry• Dry deposition: function of specie, stress, stability, surface type• Wet removal: function of precipitation rate, specie, cloud type

*Modified DEHM model (Christensen, Atm. Env., 1998)

Global Aerosol Model

November 27 NAAPS 5-day Forecast for December 2, 2002

Total Optical Depth

Dust Optical Depth

Sulfate Optical Depth

Smoke Optical Depth

Analysis using NAAPS: JFK Jr. Study(collab. with Prospero@ U. Miami, Poirot@

Vermont)

Real-Time NAAPS analyses allowed rapid response to crash:– Determined atmospheric structure: deep continental

boundary layer above shallow MBL – Detected exceptional pollution event: high sulfate

concentrations– Results used in NTSB report

Research mode:– Validated with surface chemistry and satellite data– Compared NAAPS emissions inventory to current

emissions– Diagnosed impact of uncontrolled Midwestern

emissions on air quality of East Coast and New England

JFK Jr. Study:Accurate simulation of timing and location of anthropogenic

aerosol plume

SeaWiFS Imagery, 1620Z 16 July, 1999 NAAPS AOD, 1800Z 16 July, 1999

JFK Jr. Study:Environmental conditions analyzed using NAAPS and NOGAPS

JFK Jr. Study

Findings:

•Need to add other anthropogenic aerosols to NAAPS in order to quantify visibility/extinction

•JFK Jr. study shows GEIA dataset is outdated: some current sources greater than GEIA values; others less

•Conversion rates need modification (high ozone conc. increases rate of conversion to sulfate)

•Uncontrolled Midwestern emissions responsible for most of the haze

NAAPS Smoke Source:Global Fire Detection

• Wildfire-ABBA uses GOES data to provide western hemisphere fires

• Global MODIS fire product used for other regions

GOES-8 Wildfire ABBA Summary Composite of Half-Hourly

Processed and Saturated Fire Pixel Observations for the Western

Hemisphere

Time Period: September 1, 2000 to August 31,

2001

GOES Visible Imagery14 UTC 10 August, 2000

NAAPS Smoke Optical Depth12 UTC 10 August, 2000

NAAPS Smoke Simulation, August 10, 2000

Smoke Plume

Comparison of NAAPS Optical Depth andSeaWiFS True Color For 20 June, 2001

NAAPS Simulation ofLos Alamos Smoke Plume, May 12, 2001

Smoke detected at DOE/ARMsite in Oklahoma May 11 and 12 first attributed to Los Alamos Fires

NAAPS shows smoke is a combination of two plumes:

•Transport of Los Alamos smoke in elevated dry layer

•Transport of Central American smoke in low-level moist layer

5/12 5/11 5/10 5/9

NOGAPS RH, winds, θ

NAAPS Dust Source Specification

USGS Landuse database (1 km resolution) used to identify erodible regions of the world (based on AVHRR data)

TOMS Aerosol Index (AI) used to further refine source regions over Sahara and Middle East; needs further refinement over Asia

NOGAPS soil moisture must be less than 0.3

NOGAPS surface stress must exceed a threshold value

Then dust flux is proportional to square of stress

NAAPS Dust Erodibility Specification:Based on USGS Landuse and TOMS/AI

Dust emission allowed in proportion to the square of the stress in these areas when stress exceeds critical value and soil

moisture is less than 0.3

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AERONET Data

Validation of NAAPS UsingSeaWiFS and AERONET Data, Oct. 30, 2001

NAAPS Dust Optical DepthSeaWiFS True Color

Dust Plume

Comparison of TOMS AI and NAAPS Optical Depth for April 1998

Event

April 20

April 22

April 24

April 26

Green - dust, Red - sulfate aerosol

Validation of NAAPS Simulation of Asian Dust Event

Comparison of San Nicolas AERONET Sunphotometer and NAAPS Optical Depth for April 1998 Event: Captures timing, misses

background aerosol

UNIV. UTAH LIDAR 00Z 25 APRIL 1998

LIDAR

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NAAPS

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Backscatter Depolarization

7.9 KM

The ‘Perfect Dust Storm’, April 6-9, 2001

Large dust storm on April 6-7, 2001, then swept across East Asia, the Pacific, and N. America

Visibility reduced to 100 m in some Chinese cities

Coincided with large international field program – ACE-Asia; provides additional data for validation 

Baicheng, Jilin Prov., April 7, 2001

Baicheng, Jilin Prov., April 8, 2001

SeaWiFS April 7, 2001

NAAPS Dust Forecast, April 10, 12 2001

SeaWiFS Imagery11 April 2001

NAAPS Dust Optical DepthApril 11, 2001

NAAPS Dust Simulation, April 11, 2001

Dust Plume

SeaWiFS ImageryApril 19, 2001

NAAPS Dust Optical DepthApril 19, 2001

NAAPS Dust Simulation, April 19, 2001

Dust Plume

NAAPS ACE-Asia Simulations, April 2001

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CIMEL (500 nm) NAAPS Sulphate NAAPS Dust NAAPS Smoke NAAPS Total

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SeaWiFS Study:Pixels Grouped According to NAAPS Simulation

SeaWiFS Study:Retrieval Fails for Aged Asian Dust Case

Future Plans

• Update source specification– Smoke (NASA FLAMBE)

• Add biome and seasonal dependence• Apply persistence check to Wildfire-ABBA• Use MODIS for detection outside of W. Hemisphere

– Update GEIA sulfur dioxide sources– Add salt and black carbon components

• Analysis and simulation– Develop transition path for use in screening for SST retrievals– Assimilate satellite retrievals of aerosol properties– Mesoscale generation Global transport Mesoscale impact

• Have developed mesoscale dust model, triply nested: 9, 27, an 81-km resolution

• Working on mesoscale source inventory to drive mesoscale dust model

– Continue validation using PRIDE, ACE/Asia, and other data– Initiate aerosol monitoring at MRY including IOP: ADAM